Media Create Sales: Week 12, 2014 (Mar 17 - Mar 23)

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
May 21, 2006
17,232
3
0
Genuine question, does anyone keep a tally on what our GAF "Insiders" say and if it has turned out to be truthful? I ask because a quick search for Verendus brings me a claim that Guerrilla was going to unveil their new IP at the PS4 reveal in February of 2013. That didn't happen. In fact, we're more than a year removed from that, and we still haven't seen their new IP. I believe he's also told us about a bunch of far off SCE Japan Studio games, and my favourite, a Final Fantasy VII remake.
sounds like you're volunteering to bring the comeuppance in a year or two if that stuff hasn't happened
 
Nov 17, 2011
4,152
0
0
If there's a redesign, beside the obvious tweaks I think it would come with a spin, like a nfc 3DS to take advantage of, let's say, the hability to quickly transfer datas between the SSB Wii U and 3DS versions, using characters physical cards (same roster). It could also come with a fully focused nfc cards game/app, new IP or Pokemon or other strong ip. I don't know how it would split the userbase but Nintendo could manage it with some sort of cheap nfc addon/peripheral for the old models. Just a fun speculative idea.
 
Aug 19, 2006
25,598
1
0
It's certainly due for an update soon, they've brought out a system with new capabilities every 3-4 years ever since Pokemon rejuvenated the Gameboy. I don't see that stopping just because they plan to bring out a Dr. Luigi branded Nintendo stool sampling internet toilet in the same year.

I'm not saying they'll bring out a new platform or 3DSi by early 2015, but if they don't, it'll be the longest gap since Game Boy -> Game Boy Color.
 
Dec 8, 2008
35,663
33
725
England
Sure, put it on Wii U or Vita then, 4m guaranteed.
Ah, how I adore your cantankerous demeanour.

Given that I couldn't give the slightest shit about the Dragon Quest franchise (and therefore know very little about it), you're probably correct that it wouldn't sell systems. I was just going off what I'd heard on this board, which is that Japanese gamers go wherever DQ goes.
 
May 24, 2013
23,025
0
710
Ah, how I adore your cantankerous demeanour.

Given that I couldn't give the slightest shit about the Dragon Quest franchise (and therefore know very little about it), you're probably correct that it wouldn't sell systems. I was just going off what I'd heard on this board, which is that Japanese gamers go wherever DQ goes.
The opposite actually. DQ goes to the system with the highest install base years after its been decided which was the 'generation leader'. Taken from the wikipedia entry for DQ.

The only DQ that released during a launch year was DQX and that was a multi-platform MMO that sold better on the Wii.
 
Jun 9, 2013
7,121
0
0
- MH4G
- PKMN Z
- DQXI
- FFV
- 2DS
- Price Cut
- Redesign

3DS is doing ok and will continue to for the next few years. Now let's talk about platforms that are truly fucked up.
Monster Hunter 4 and Pokemon won't move a lot of hardware anymore. The fanbase is already there. For DQ there will be a bigger increase since there is only been remakes and spin-off. Not-so-hardcore DQ fans could be waiting for a mainline entry.

SSB3D + Price cut could work well for Holiday 2014.

I think a price cut will work better than the 2DS in Japan. About a redesign, I don't know if there is really some feature that could drive a lot of sales. Somebody here talked about adding some of the "unified ecosystem" features and that could work decently...
 
I don't think switching to a successor so early is necessarily a good idea. Since it'd be a new platform, there'd be a sales spike for a little while, but how long can they sustain it before the sales continuously drop? Then what, rush out yet another successor quick? In the West, I think it's just going to get worse, so since the 3DS is sort of established and has a solid library (plus SW sales are decent, especially in Japan, and I think third parties are probably comfortable with it), I'd just ride on it for now instead of starting over again soon.

Obviously they need to come out with a successor sometime, but I don't think rushing a successor is the best solution. I kinda feel people are obsessed with seeing big numbers that they're missing the big picture.
The problem isn't "big numbers", it's mindshare and market share erosion.

Stagnant platforms tend to lose support long term from both consumers and developers. If you need evidence of this, look at what's happening to the Vita and Wii U, and how the PS4 is now joining them.

Will the 4DS lose as much support? I would say no as it's the only platform left, but each drop continues to be painful.

If we compare the breadth of large software the system had announced in its first year to now, and then to the DS and PSP as well, we see quite a few major publishers condensing down to a much smaller, safer lineup as they use their other resources to chase the booming mobile industry (Square, Capcom, and Konami to just name three). This isn't good for a platform's long term health. That was true for the PS3 as it lost a variety of mid tier games, true for the PSP as it collapsed in the West, true for the Wii as third parties abandoned it worldwide, and will be true for the 3DS, which we can see by just looking at how it's selling right now.

The idea of an early 4DS lies upon the assumption that Nintendo can create something more appealing to both consumers and developers than the 3DS. If that's not true, then you're right, they're largely intractably fucked and it doesn't really matter when they launch so they might as well quadruple down on QoL and hope it gives them something resembling a strong revenue stream, though that feels like quite the longshot itself.
 

DCharlie

And even i am moderately surprised
Staff member
Jun 7, 2004
23,294
25
1,480
www.dcharlie.com
I have a feeling the 4DS will be called "Gamboy <something>"

I think the DS, 2DS, 3DS etc has become too confusing and i think they'll fall back on a familiar name for the next portable.
 
May 31, 2013
23,628
0
0
I have a feeling the 4DS will be called "Gamboy <something>"

I think the DS, 2DS, 3DS etc has become too confusing and i think they'll fall back on a familiar name for the next portable.
It's been something like 11 years since the Gameboy Advance SP was released. That's 11 years worth of kids not familiar with the brand name that is Gameboy

I'm not convinced they would go back to it. Maybe though
 
Jan 16, 2014
2,193
0
0
I have a feeling the 4DS will be called "Gamboy <something>"

I think the DS, 2DS, 3DS etc has become too confusing and i think they'll fall back on a familiar name for the next portable.
nintendos investing too much in the female demographic to make the return to the gameboy branding even remotely likely. I think they'll brand there next handheld and console in a way that plays up there connectivity.
 
Aug 7, 2011
2,898
0
0
I can't see Gameboy XXX being the name of their next portable because they have a large female audience these days (unlike back in the late 80s when the name was first used) and Gameboy is too masculine. You need something more gender neutral to appeal to a wider audience.

Edit: beaten by the poster above.
 
Nov 4, 2012
15,052
0
0
I don't think the 3DS' successor needs to come out so soon if the software situation is strong enough. There's also two opportunities for growth that they still have.

First, the Nintendo could attempt to encroach on its' opponent's space, which I guess it's starting to try with F2P and IAP. That Pokemon puzzle game also looked like Puzzle and Dragons to me, but I'm not familiar. There are certain types of games that are still more dominant on the Vita; Nintendo could try to secure those..

Second, as was noted earlier, they've done very little in terms of new IPs on the retail front this gen. Reviving dormant IPs is also an option. Whenever this discussion comes up we see this lists of "what IPs does Nintendo have left?" but they shouldn't be restricted to that, especially since new IPs were what put them in a strong position with the Wii/DS.

I have a feeling the 4DS will be called "Gamboy <something>"

I think the DS, 2DS, 3DS etc has become too confusing and i think they'll fall back on a familiar name for the next portable.
Iwata will just get Itoi on the horn and ask him for a new name.
 
May 6, 2013
4,057
0
365
First, the Nintendo could attempt to encroach on its' opponent's space, which I guess it's starting to try with F2P and IAP. That Pokemon puzzle game also looked like Puzzle and Dragons to me, but I'm not familiar.
It's the sequel to Pokémon Trozei, a DS game that came out in 2006, not something in reaction to Puzzle & Dragons or whatever F2P app
 
May 6, 2012
6,479
0
470
Zurich, Switzerland
Comgnet Ranking

[Vita] Hatsune Miku-Project DIVA-2nd F - 231Pt
[PS3] Hatsune Miku-Project DIVA-2nd F - 163Pt
[3DS] Mario Party Island Tour - 135pt
[PS3] Samurai Warriors 4 (Limited Edition) - 71Pt
[PS3] METAL GEAR SOLID GROUND V ZEROES - 56Pt
[3DS] Yokai Watch - 46pt
[PS3] Winning Post 8 - 37Pt
[PS3] Dark Souls 2 - 37Pt
[3DS] Dragon Quest Monsters 2 - 30pt
[3DS] Monster Hunter 4 - 29Pt
[3DS] fossil Fighters - 27pt
[Vita] Phantasy Star Online 2 Episode 2 Deluxe package - 24pt
[PS3] J Stars Victory VS (Limited Edition) - 24pt
[3DS] NEW Love Plus + - 24pt
[3DS] Pazudora Z - 24pt
[Vita] samurai warriors 4 - 22pt
[PS3] Pro Baseball Spirits 2014 - 20pt
[3DS] Hero bank - 20pt
[Vita] SOUL SACRIFICE DELTA - 18pt
[Vita] Hakuouki SSL ~ sweet school life ~ (Limited Edition) - 17pt
 
Aug 19, 2006
25,598
1
0
nintendos investing too much in the female demographic to make the return to the gameboy branding even remotely likely. I think they'll brand there next handheld and console in a way that plays up there connectivity.
I can't see Gameboy XXX being the name of their next portable because they have a large female audience these days (unlike back in the late 80s when the name was first used) and Gameboy is too masculine. You need something more gender neutral to appeal to a wider audience.

Edit: beaten by the poster above.
What if they called it a ToyBoy?
I'm going to need some citations to be convinced that females are repelled by products with boy in the title.
 
Jan 25, 2012
22,624
0
0
I have a feeling the 4DS will be called "Gamboy <something>"

I think the DS, 2DS, 3DS etc has become too confusing and i think they'll fall back on a familiar name for the next portable.
I think the DS brand is done after this gen and going back to the brand name "Gameboy" doesn't seem like a good idea nowadays. It would be interesting to see Nintendo make a new brand that encompasses all of their future HW.
 

DCharlie

And even i am moderately surprised
Staff member
Jun 7, 2004
23,294
25
1,480
www.dcharlie.com
well, i think the DS brand is definitely done - so they need something else. Gameboy might be wide of the mark, but this -is- Japan so i wouldn't die of shock if it did end up being called Gameboy Connect or something like that
 
Aug 24, 2011
6,928
0
500
Finland
I don't think the 3DS' successor needs to come out so soon if the software situation is strong enough. There's also two opportunities for growth that they still have.

First, the Nintendo could attempt to encroach on its' opponent's space, which I guess it's starting to try with F2P and IAP. That Pokemon puzzle game also looked like Puzzle and Dragons to me, but I'm not familiar. There are certain types of games that are still more dominant on the Vita; Nintendo could try to secure those..

Second, as was noted earlier, they've done very little in terms of new IPs on the retail front this gen. Reviving dormant IPs is also an option. Whenever this discussion comes up we see this lists of "what IPs does Nintendo have left?" but they shouldn't be restricted to that, especially since new IPs were what put them in a strong position with the Wii/DS.



Iwata will just get Itoi on the horn and ask him for a new name.
Even though this thread is about Japanese sales it's the western sales Nintendo should be more worried about. All heavy hitters out and the 3DS already dipped under 100k during january in US (for example X360 went under 100k first time last year...). It's falling behind PSPs pace soon and frankly I really don't see how they can spur the sales again after all those heavy hitters and 2DS. They can't wait for late 2016 in west.
 
Jul 4, 2013
3,079
0
0
22
Texas
I honestly don't get why 3DS hardware sales nosediving in Japan is so worrying. We're slowly getting to the point where almost anyone interested in gaming will already own a 3DS. It's only natural that hardware sales decline. As long as the 3DS dominates the software charts I don't see hardware decline as a problem. We should start worrying when software sales start declining.

Of course, the west is a whole 'nother issue lol. That's where we should be worrying.

Anyone have a list of the best selling consoles in Japan? I wanna know where 3DS ranks.
 
Apr 25, 2011
8,868
0
0
I honestly don't get why 3DS hardware sales nosediving in Japan is so worrying. We're slowly getting to the point where almost anyone interested in gaming will already own a 3DS. It's only natural that hardware sales decline. As long as the 3DS dominates the software charts I don't see hardware decline as a problem. We should start worrying when software sales start declining.

Of course, the west is a whole 'nother issue lol. That's where we should be worrying.

Anyone have a list of the best selling consoles in Japan? I wanna know where 3DS ranks.
Probably just people comparing it to DS sales and not taking the mobile gaming factor into account.
 
Jan 16, 2014
2,193
0
0
I honestly don't get why 3DS hardware sales nosediving in Japan is so worrying. We're slowly getting to the point where almost anyone interested in gaming will already own a 3DS. It's only natural that hardware sales decline. As long as the 3DS dominates the software charts I don't see hardware decline as a problem. We should start worrying when software sales start declining.

Of course, the west is a whole 'nother issue lol. That's where we should be worrying.

Anyone have a list of the best selling consoles in Japan? I wanna know where 3DS ranks.
if everyone interested in handhelds has bought the 3ds thats a huge issue since it means japans handheld market, one of nintendos best markets, has shrunk considerably and will probably continue to shrink.

edit: also even though 3ds software dominates the chart, it doesn't mean its particularly healthy.
 
Jan 16, 2014
2,193
0
0
Even though this thread is about Japanese sales it's the western sales Nintendo should be more worried about. All heavy hitters out and the 3DS already dipped under 100k during january in US (for example X360 went under 100k first time last year...). It's falling behind PSPs pace soon and frankly I really don't see how they can spur the sales again after all those heavy hitters and 2DS. They can't wait for late 2016 in west.
i think 2016 or 2015 would be the best time to release a new handheld, but i think nintendo should not try to rush one, unless they have something new and appealing they'll just end up in a worse position, just like the wii u.
 
Jun 9, 2012
26,506
0
0
I honestly don't get why 3DS hardware sales nosediving in Japan is so worrying. We're slowly getting to the point where almost anyone interested in gaming will already own a 3DS. It's only natural that hardware sales decline. As long as the 3DS dominates the software charts I don't see hardware decline as a problem. We should start worrying when software sales start declining.

Of course, the west is a whole 'nother issue lol. That's where we should be worrying.
This kind of reactive attitude is exactly the thing Nintendo should avoid. The 3DS dominates the software charts, but there is also a lot of software being shifted primarily to mobile devices. Of course, I'm not sure at all what Nintendo can realistically do in order to try and attract more software to their handhelds besides just making them even easier to develop for which what I suspect the next handheld will be focused on. I worry that Nintendo will try too hard to come up with some gimmick so that sales can take off in the west again.
 

Soriku

Junior Member
Aug 22, 2012
15,519
0
455
The problem isn't "big numbers", it's mindshare and market share erosion.

Stagnant platforms tend to lose support long term from both consumers and developers. If you need evidence of this, look at what's happening to the Vita and Wii U, and how the PS4 is now joining them.

Will the 4DS lose as much support? I would say no as it's the only platform left, but each drop continues to be painful.

If we compare the breadth of large software the system had announced in its first year to now, and then to the DS and PSP as well, we see quite a few major publishers condensing down to a much smaller, safer lineup as they use their other resources to chase the booming mobile industry (Square, Capcom, and Konami to just name three). This isn't good for a platform's long term health. That was true for the PS3 as it lost a variety of mid tier games, true for the PSP as it collapsed in the West, true for the Wii as third parties abandoned it worldwide, and will be true for the 3DS, which we can see by just looking at how it's selling right now.

The idea of an early 4DS lies upon the assumption that Nintendo can create something more appealing to both consumers and developers than the 3DS. If that's not true, then you're right, they're largely intractably fucked and it doesn't really matter when they launch so they might as well quadruple down on QoL and hope it gives them something resembling a strong revenue stream, though that feels like quite the longshot itself.
OK. My thought process was that the handheld situation was just going to get worse with every iteration, especially since mobile is still on the rise. A successor would probably get support, but it might decline faster than the 3DS and third parties would drop it faster too. Releasing a successor quick seems like a short term solution that may get more and more diluted.

I'm not really sure if Nintendo (or anyone) can create something that can really compete. The 3DS isn't doing GREAT, but it's holding its own for now, so I'd probably stretch it out. Of course by the end of this year or sometime next year things start looking grim...then they don't really have a choice but to release a successor and see how it does.

Also, I wouldn't lump PS4 with Wii U and Vita yet. The PS3 probably had more notable announcements in the same time, but I'd wait a bit, especially when some devs are still releasing on PS3. At least not everything is going to mobile or something.

Also, nice tag :p
 
Jan 16, 2014
2,193
0
0
This kind of reactive attitude is exactly the thing Nintendo should avoid. The 3DS dominates the software charts, but there is also a lot of software being shifted primarily to mobile devices. Of course, I'm not sure at all what Nintendo can realistically do in order to try and attract more software to their handhelds besides just making them even easier to develop for which what I suspect the next handheld will be focused on. I worry that Nintendo will try too hard to come up with some gimmick so that sales can take off in the west again.
Nintendo definitely needs to try hard to create a gimmick, or else they'll be left with a standard handheld that less and less people care about.
 
Jan 25, 2012
22,624
0
0
I'm curious to see whether Yokai Watch comes to the US given its popularity in Japan.

Nintendo definitely needs to try hard to create a gimmick, or else they'll be left with a standard handheld that less and less people care about.
There will obviously need to be some of a gimmick but things like fixing up their account system, adding support to more engines like Unity and making it easy to port over mobile games will go a long way especially when combined with Nintendo's own SW which still dominates in Japan. Also, if the Vita doesn't get a successor they would have a good opportunity of getting a few more companies/franchise under their belt at some point.
 
Jan 16, 2014
2,193
0
0
There will obviously need to be some of a gimmick but things like fixing up their account system, adding support to more engines like Unity and making it easy to port over mobile games will go a long way especially when combined with Nintendo's own SW which still dominates in Japan.
ya that goes without saying, but if they want that mass market cheddar, then gimmicks are better.
 
Jun 9, 2012
26,506
0
0
We're past the point where you can expect to release a dedicated piece of hardware with a gimmick, and not have that same selling point be in another device a few months later. The mobile technology world moves too fast for that now. Of course, as long as it doesn't signficiantly raise the price of the machine or harm its other functionality than they should do whatever they want.
 
OK. My thought process was that the handheld situation was just going to get worse with every iteration, especially since mobile is still on the rise. A successor would probably get support, but it might decline faster than the 3DS and third parties would drop it faster too. Releasing a successor quick seems like a short term solution that may get more and more diluted.

I'm not really sure if Nintendo (or anyone) can create something that can really compete. The 3DS isn't doing GREAT, but it's holding its own for now, so I'd probably stretch it out. Of course by the end of this year or sometime next year things start looking grim...then they don't really have a choice but to release a successor and see how it does.
Yeah, I will admit it's definitely a gamble. The one issue I have with wait-and-see approaches is that usually a new console/handheld has at least a 24 month lead-in time if it's to get enough content, so if a company decides to start as soon as things go really south, they have to wait in two more years of pain in order to get out on time.

Generally speaking I think companies would almost always be better off launching a year early than a year late, since it leaves less down time for their consumers to go out and find someone else to use instead.

But again, as you said, if they can't support it properly, then all they've done is move themselves to a smaller customer base. They would basically have to reach out to all the third parties that still support them and make something they would really like in exchange for agreements to launch notable software at or near launch.

Like Microsoft and Sony managed to line up just about every major Western publisher for launch of the PS4 and Xbox One and it worked wonders for them. With Sony having failed to do that in Japan, we can see the it working wonders in the other direction.

Ultimately the question becomes if Nintendo thinks they can rally both their own developers and their biggest third parties around their platform to push against the trend or if it's better to ride out the business for as long as it lasts and look for new directions for the future. It's probably not an easy choice.

Also, I wouldn't lump PS4 with Wii U and Vita yet. The PS3 probably had more notable announcements in the same time, but I'd wait a bit, especially when some devs are still releasing on PS3. At least not everything is going to mobile or something.

Also, nice tag :p
I do think the PS4 has a better shot than the other two on the basis of it being "the one console" in the same sense that the 3DS is "the one handheld", but overall I would say I'm still expecting double digit LTD declines from the PS3.

I could be wrong on that front and it admittedly is early, but being bearish so far this generation has worked out. :p
 
Jun 13, 2012
11,333
0
0
I think both are required, but the gimmick(s) of a device are pretty hard to predict so we'll have to wait and see on that one.
It will be fascinating to see where N goes from here wrt their hardware.

My guess is that they will be going after that wii/ds gimmick money with the qol platform. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the next hanheld + console have no gimmicks at all. QoL on the other hand, is going to have all sorts of crazy.
 
Jan 25, 2012
22,624
0
0
We're past the point where you can expect to release a dedicated piece of hardware with a gimmick, and not have that same selling point be in another device a few months later. The mobile technology world moves too fast for that now. Of course, as long as it doesn't signficiantly raise the price of the machine or harm its other functionality than they should do whatever they want.
That's kinda unavoidable unless Nintendo were to start refreshing their products at the same rate as phones or something.

It will be fascinating to see where N goes from here wrt their hardware.

My guess is that they will be going after that wii/ds gimmick money with the qol platform. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the next hanheld + console have no gimmicks at all. QoL on the other hand, is going to have all sorts of crazy.
Gimmicks give consumers a reason to buy your product over the consumer so there has to be something, and I wouldn't be surprised if it was OS related this time around.
 
Apr 8, 2010
2,736
0
0
I have a feeling the 4DS will be called "Gamboy <something>"

I think the DS, 2DS, 3DS etc has become too confusing and i think they'll fall back on a familiar name for the next portable.
Gameboy4DS

if everyone interested in handhelds has bought the 3ds thats a huge issue since it means japans handheld market, one of nintendos best markets, has shrunk considerably and will probably continue to shrink.

edit: also even though 3ds software dominates the chart, it doesn't mean its particularly healthy.
None of the platform in Japan is healthy right now then
 
Jun 13, 2012
11,333
0
0
That's kinda unavoidable unless Nintendo were to start refreshing their products at the same rate as phones or something.



Gimmicks give consumers a reason to buy your product over the consumer so there has to be something, and I wouldn't be surprised if it was OS related this time around.
Possibly. I cannot think of any Japanese company that leads when it comes to backend software innovation and satisfying front end UI stuff. Their industry seems to be based on 'make hardware, then software', not the other way around.

But then again, Nintendo is not typical and they do have a deep talent pool.