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Media Create Sales: Week 12, 2017 (Mar 20 - Mar 26)

Fisico

Member
Jul 9, 2012
2,539
0
425
Japan
twitter.com
And for the laughs, teaser trailer for Ace Atorney pachislot.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dwSajH7xGag

Not the first one, there's already been one with animated cutscenes and all.
Seems like like they're remaking the first game with full 3D models having the same quality than current mainline games (animations seem a bit stiff though)

Pachislot always strikes me as a way to make good use of older IP, using the first entry of the series released 15 years ago clearly seems to point that way too.
 

zeromcd73

Member
Mar 21, 2014
5,061
0
0
Oof that is a little while.
Late April and May should be decent right?
Japan needs to get some announcements out there.
04/20 - Minna de Wai~Wai~ Spelunker
04/28 - Mario Kart 8 Deluxe
05/26 - Street Fighter II The Final Challengers
06/01 - Seiken Densetsu Collecton
06/29 - Lego City Undercover

Spring: Arms, Summer: Splatoon2
 

frankie_baby

Member
May 3, 2007
18,401
0
0
So looking at upcoming Switch titles,
Street Fighter 2
Mana Collection
MK8D
What do you guys think these games will do.
I know Mario Kart will don't a pot but could it be on par with its original release and will the ports of classic games make a decent sell through as well?
2 million + for mario kart 150k for sf2 80k for mana
 

z0m3le

Banned
Jun 16, 2011
3,883
1
0
34
Seattle, WA
www.notenoughshaders.com
It will be interesting to see how well switch holds before Mk8D. It seems to still be selling out as fast as it hits shelves, if it keeps that up until MK, I don't think it will see a large drop this year in Japan.

People have convinced me that Splatoon will end up a July title, if that's the case, Switch should be fine through to next year. A good idea would be pokemon in early next year.
 
Jun 18, 2015
5,025
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It will be interesting to see how well switch holds before Mk8D. It seems to still be selling out as fast as it hits shelves, if it keeps that up until MK, I don't think it will see a large drop this year in Japan.

People have convinced me that Splatoon will end up a July title, if that's the case, Switch should be fine through to next year. A good idea would be pokemon in early next year.
Pokémon will hit holidays, if that production of 16 million is correct then its releasing this year.
 

test_account

XP-39C²
Mar 22, 2007
23,613
2
1,000
2 million + for mario kart 150k for sf2 80k for mana
2m+ for Mario Kart 8 seems really high to me. Mario Kart 7 is currently at 2.7 million, brand new game (as in, not a port) and on 3DS. Eventhough Switch is the 3DS successor and many people dropped MK8, still seems high. 150k for SF2 also seems high considering the price, 5k yen.
 

Principate

Saint Titanfall
Dec 17, 2011
16,592
0
570
How well do you think a single sku Pokemon port/derivative of sun and moon will sell on the Switch? Are your positing it as the ultimate catalyst?
Switch will have a strong holiday Pokémon or not that much is absolutely certain. Even the Wii U had comparatively strong holidays and that thing sold 10k and below all year long. An exclusive pokemon if true even if it's just a third version should be able to push it to have a very strong holiday.
 
Jun 18, 2015
5,025
0
0
How well do you think a single sku Pokemon port/derivative of sun and moon will sell on the Switch? Are your positing it as the ultimate catalyst?
Depending on the Switch user base will much lower than Pokémon I use to be releasing on,
I'm gonna say holidays if it is indeed true.
I'm saying 765k-1.3 million first week(Japan)on Switch.
Hope it's true who knows it could not happen lol.
 

frankie_baby

Member
May 3, 2007
18,401
0
0
2m+ for Mario Kart 8 seems really high to me. Mario Kart 7 is currently at 2.7 million, brand new game (as in, not a port) and on 3DS. Eventhough Switch is the 3DS successor and many people dropped MK8, still seems high. 150k for SF2 also seems high considering the price, 5k yen.
Anecdotal and wrong country but i dont think being a port will harm it one bit, every single Wii U owner i know bought mk8 and now every switch owner i know (of which the 2 groups significantly overlap) is planning on getting mk8d
 

Shikamaru Ninja

任天堂 の 忍者
Depending on the Switch user base will much lower than Pokémon I use to be releasing on,
I'm gonna say holidays if it is indeed true.
I'm saying 765k first week(Japan)on Switch.
Hope it's true who knows it could not happen lol.
That's an insane attach rate given the amount of consoles available by then. Animal Crossing New Leaf is the best selling Japanese game and I don't think even that game could do that.
 

test_account

XP-39C²
Mar 22, 2007
23,613
2
1,000
Anecdotal and wrong country but i dont think being a port will harm it one bit, every single Wii U owner i know bought mk8 and now every switch owner i know (of which the 2 groups significantly overlap) is planning on getting mk8d
Well, hard to say. I think many people are done with the game. The strong card it has is that many people skipped MK8 compared to what other Mario Kart games can sell.
 
Jun 18, 2015
5,025
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That's an insane attach rate given the amount of consoles available by then. Animal Crossing New Leaf is the best selling Japanese game and I don't think even that game could do that.
Well this is with me assuming Splatoon 2 and MK8D push the Switch hard.
Who knows(maybe it could be 300k-500k?)
 

hiska-kun

Member
Mar 9, 2012
3,567
0
445
Spain
Switch Stock Situation (March 31th)

Amazon.jp reopened orders, but they're closed again, just a few moments later.

Bic Camera had raffle units (lottery) today, and will have two more raffle shipments tomorrow April 1st. The day after tomorrow, April 2nd, Sofmap (same chain as Bic Camera) will have raffle units as well.

https://gamewith.jp/gamedb/article/show/43620?
 
Jun 18, 2015
5,025
0
0
Switch Stock Situation (March 31th)

Amazon.jp reopened orders, but they're closed again, just a few moments later.

Bic Camera had raffle units (lottery) today, and will have two more raffle shipments tomorrow April 1st and the day after tomorrow April 2nd.
Do you think this demand could last consistently until Mario Kart(50-70k range maybe)?
 

frankie_baby

Member
May 3, 2007
18,401
0
0
All of them. SF2 isn't going to move 150k units
That's the one I'm most certain of, its street fighter fucking 2 on a cartridge on a portable 2 player system, they couldve priced it better but it'll sell (small amounts yeah) for a long time, may take a while but it'll get there, as i said earlier this aint aimed at the hardcore fighting crowd
 

Alrus

Member
Apr 4, 2010
9,787
0
595
Belgium
I feel some of you are way too bullish on MK8D performing well. I think it's going to sell fine but I'm still skeptical about it hitting regular mario kart numbers.

SF2 is not selling 150k in Japan, fighting game have gone down massively in popularity and a ridiculously expensive HD port isn't going to sell anywhere close to that amount.
 

frankie_baby

Member
May 3, 2007
18,401
0
0
I feel some of you are way too bullish on MK8D performing well. I think it's going to sell fine but I'm still skeptical about it hitting regular mario kart numbers.
Its launch numbers will be down simply due to the low switch base but long term it will sell
 
Jun 18, 2015
5,025
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I feel some of you are way too bullish on MK8D performing well. I think it's going to sell fine but I'm still skeptical about it hitting regular mario kart numbers.

SF2 is not selling 150k in Japan, fighting game have gone down massively in popularity and a ridiculously expensive HD port isn't going to sell anywhere close to that amount.
I agree with SF2 at most I predict 50k lifetime on Switch.
However with Mario Kart it'll sell just as well as the original at least due to the portability factor plus expanded multiplayer options imo.
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Dec 17, 2008
11,738
0
0
That's an insane attach rate given the amount of consoles available by then. Animal Crossing New Leaf is the best selling Japanese game and I don't think even that game could do that.
If Switch is at 3m at holidays that's not an insane attach rate for a Pokemon game.
 

Branduil

Member
Sep 20, 2006
64,608
1
0
Excellent Eriador
I feel some of you are way too bullish on MK8D performing well. I think it's going to sell fine but I'm still skeptical about it hitting regular mario kart numbers.

SF2 is not selling 150k in Japan, fighting game have gone down massively in popularity and a ridiculously expensive HD port isn't going to sell anywhere close to that amount.
I'm not even sure most people will realize MK8DX is a port.
 

Principate

Saint Titanfall
Dec 17, 2011
16,592
0
570
Say we extrapolate data from previous single sku year after derivatives like Pokemon Yellow or Pokemon Crystal rather than premiere generation multi sku Pokemons.
Even those would be poor comparisons this is a fairly unique scenario. Nintendo handhelds traditionally have backwards compatibility which is why Gamefreak never gave a shit about releasing on the new handheld anytime soon as they could essentially sell to both platforms simulataneous. This would be the first time if the rumour is correct a Nintendo handheld will have a properly ported Pokemon game fairly early in it's life style maybe even exclusive to it making it an early primary driver rather than a later motherload.

Also means this would be one of the lowest install bases it's launched in.
 

L~A

Member
Jan 19, 2013
12,188
0
0
Switch Stock Situation (March 31th)

Amazon.jp reopened orders, but they're closed again, just a few moments later.

Bic Camera had raffle units (lottery) today, and will have two more raffle shipments tomorrow April 1st. The day after tomorrow, April 2nd, Sofmap (same chain as Bic Camera) will have raffle units as well.

https://gamewith.jp/gamedb/article/show/43620?
So we're back at raffles for new units, heh?
 

Principate

Saint Titanfall
Dec 17, 2011
16,592
0
570
So we're back at raffles for new units, heh?
I'm sorry but this will never not be ridiculous regardless of scarce the thing is.

"oh congratulations you just won the right to pay us a large sum of money. How gracious!"
 

thestopsign

Member
Jun 2, 2005
7,839
0
1,325
Say we extrapolate data from previous single sku year after derivatives like Pokemon Yellow or Pokemon Crystal rather than premiere generation multi sku Pokemons.
The single SKUs are typically launched towards the end of generations, or at least after the true mainline games come out already, so there is no straight comparison to be had here. There is precedent for a game like Pokemon having a large launch week even with a lower install base. Look at Final Fantasy XIII on PS3:

01. / 00. [PS3] Final Fantasy XIII (Square Enix) - 1.501.964 / NEW
PS3 | 237.086 | 75.086 | 1.654.012 | 4.276.480

That had an attach ratio of 35% or so, a large launch, and a relatively small base to work with. It isn't really apples to apples, but it is an example.

If the Switch has ~3 million by the time Pokemon launches in November/December, it could sell a million first week easy. Games like Animal Crossing aren't typically as front loaded as Pokemon. Pokemon has great legs, but Animal Crossing is on another level.
 

frankie_baby

Member
May 3, 2007
18,401
0
0
Switch Stock Situation (March 31th)

Amazon.jp reopened orders, but they're closed again, just a few moments later.

Bic Camera had raffle units (lottery) today, and will have two more raffle shipments tomorrow April 1st. The day after tomorrow, April 2nd, Sofmap (same chain as Bic Camera) will have raffle units as well.

https://gamewith.jp/gamedb/article/show/43620?
So shipments coming in (and going out) thick and fast could we similar numbers again this week
 

Principate

Saint Titanfall
Dec 17, 2011
16,592
0
570
I'm going to guess they will be back to 50K-60K range, which if that holds until Mario Kart would I believe show the best hold for a new system going back to the Wii.
It would be pretty impressive considering the price and the current market with increased competition.
 

Mokujin

Member
Jun 16, 2013
1,386
0
0
I feel some of you are way too bullish on MK8D performing well. I think it's going to sell fine but I'm still skeptical about it hitting regular mario kart numbers.
If MK8 had released on a more succesful platform I could see it having a lot of fatigue market wise, but coming from Wii U doesn't seem like a great deal to me, plus MK8 Deluxe will have some extra bonus points.-

* Release timing is really nice being 4 weeks away trailig after Zelda.
* It's going to be there at the end of the year for a predictble really strong year 1 holiday season.
* Quantum leap in portable Mario Kart both quality wise and local multiplayer.

I don't know what numbers will achieve but I'm convinced it's going to perform really, really strong on Switch.
 

frankie_baby

Member
May 3, 2007
18,401
0
0
I'm going to guess they will be back to 50K-60K range, which if that holds until Mario Kart would I believe show the best hold for a new system going back to the Wii.
I'm bullish think another 80k-ish this week just to get as much stock out before the end of the FY then maybe down again to 50k for a few weeks til another big week for mario kart's release
 

darkstar0155

Member
Aug 15, 2012
1,151
0
0
If the switch keeps selling out up through MK8D, then too Splatoon 2, and into the holidays, Nintendo may just keep a pokemon on the back burner and wait until after the holidays and sales slow down to release it. Which is part of the reason they may not have announced it yet. Waiting to see when if/when sales start to slow down.
 

Zedark

Member
Feb 22, 2016
5,220
0
290
If the switch keeps selling out up through MK8D, then too Splatoon 2, and into the holidays, Nintendo may just keep a pokemon on the back burner and wait until after the holidays and sales slow down to release it. Which is part of the reason they may not have announced it yet. Waiting to see when if/when sales start to slow down.
That's possible, but I think looking worldwide, there will probably be more need for a pokemon than in Japan to keep up sales. Japan can probably be carried by Splatoon and Super Mario into next year, but the west doesn't have as much to gain from a Splatoon release, so I think they will need a Pokémon or another blockbuster to reach the numbers proposed by WSJ.
 

Branduil

Member
Sep 20, 2006
64,608
1
0
Excellent Eriador
That's possible, but I think looking worldwide, there will probably be more need for a pokemon than in Japan to keep up sales. Japan can probably be carried by Splatoon and Super Mario into next year, but the west doesn't have as much to gain from a Splatoon release, so I think they will need a Pokémon or another blockbuster to reach the numbers proposed by WSJ.
I mean, there will be Mario, possibly Smash, and Skyrim as well.
 

z0m3le

Banned
Jun 16, 2011
3,883
1
0
34
Seattle, WA
www.notenoughshaders.com
I mean, there will be Mario, possibly Smash, and Skyrim as well.
Yep, this looks like what they are probably banking on. I think a bundle will be important too. There is a lot of Mario Kart and Smash gamers that passed on Wii U, Zelda DLC could also keep the title relevant for people unable to buy the system right now. E3 hype is the big unknown, if they sell switch to everyone in june with exciting new announcements, then I think they can do just fine.

On a side note, Splatoon sold more copies in America than Japan, so it's not like it was a sales dud.