LordOcidax
Member
In Japan... Is going to be really crazy.
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thestopsign
Member
I bet Splatoon 2 FW is higher than a potential future Animal Crossing on the Switch.
Actually strike that, I just checked and New Leaf launched at 700k not 350k like I thought.
That depends heavily on install bases and is not in favor of Splatoon.
I sincerly believe (especially if weekly shipments see even slight improvements) this won't be a problem for too long. Then, 3DS.
frankie_baby
Member
Zelda on wii u up, wonder where that one will finish up
Mr. Pointy
Member
If Switch can hold 40-50k for the next 2-3 weeks before Mario Kart 8 DX, then we could safely say it's the Next Big Thing.
Reggie had said a couple months ago when asked about supply, that the 2 million figure was for the first 3 weeks of march (this was after reports in Janurary that production was ramping up for Switch) So the 2.5 million number was floated around. Then the doubling of production was rumored by WSJ? from 8 million to 16 million, which I assumed was based on the screen supply of 10 million for the year. That would put switch at a possible 18.5 million by end of march 2018 and should also allow 2.5m shipped as of now, but these are largely rumored numbers and based on vague statements.
DarkLordMalik
Member
PS Vita can't even handle anime waifus running at decent frame rate now. #RIPPrince
Why tomorrow exactly?
thestopsign
Member
I agree. I think Splatoon has a chance to do 400-500k first week though. If Animal Crossing Switch matches what New Leaf does there is no chance.
kuroneko0509
Member
Going by past events, Nintendo often announces release dates on thursday, not later.
And time for a May's release is running out.
JonnyDBrit
Member
It's all in the legs. PS4 launched behind the Wii U, but managed to sustain itself for longer. In that regard then, it may be hard to measure how well Switch is doing until we're a year in - whether its trajectory matches its predecessor or outpaces it.
Looks like Breath of the Wild on Wii U should break 100k physical copies over the next two weeks. Switch version will probably be closer to a month to break 400k.
Maybe, but it still wouldn't have caught up to the WiiU with those numbers. It's just hard to tell whether the sales are part of initial Nintendo fan demand as it has been supply constrained, or if there are more consumers getting on board.
Maybe Nintendo could be pulling another Majora's Mask 3D and announcing the release date less than a month before release?
C'mon Nintendo, hurry up!
Earlier today 3 unknown amiibo went up on Best Buy that were quickly taken down. They seemed to be Zelda related as their compatible games were all Zelda games. (Probably the Majora's Mask, Skyward Sword, Twilight Princess 30th anniversary amiibo.)
My point is, I believe we're getting a Direct soon.
Comparing Switch with Wii U is a joke. Even 3DS fell into irrelevance 1 month after launch and had a pathetic Golden Week.
Well, yeah, but the user was making comparisons with Wii U and 3DS, and I answered accordingly
TheLegendaryN
Member
Golden Week will be great for Switch because of Mario Kart 8 Deluxe.
frankie_baby
Member
Switch down lot from last week but still sold out, guess last weeks extra shipments meant less to ship this week, maybe it might be up a little next week
My guess is this week and the week before last are going to be the base shipments if demand keep up, and last week was elevated only because of the Splatoon 2 Testfire. Of course shipment will go up for major releases like MK8D, but otherwise I think this will be the level we're looking at for the next few weeks.
ZSaberLink
Media Create Maven
Sure, but given the Switch is still behind the Wii U's failed launch and the 3DS's first good month, there's still a lot more catch up to do for Switch right?
Totals after 5 weeks of sales:
792,954 - 3DS
694,370 - Wii U
565,013 - Switch
501,262 - Vita
470,011 - PS4
You can't really have this conversation yet seeing as the thing is supply constrained. Would Switch have sold as much as 3DS if the stock was there? Who knows...
TheLegendaryN
Member
Supply constraints. The Switch will have a much longer/bigger leg than 3DS and Wii U. I'm not so worried. Besides, they have big games like Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, Ultra Street Fighter II, ARMS and Splatoon 2 to keep momentum going, while Wii U and 3DS both had big droughts.
June's always been the most likely month for ARMS, as discussed in a previous thread (though I guess they could always have a a short release date announcement > release date timeframe, but seems weird for a game like ARMS).
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By the way, both version of Zelda BotW sold a combined 420 706 units. Next milestone: 500k, easy one.
ZSaberLink
Media Create Maven
I know it's supply constrained. But like jonno said we have no idea how it would've sold if it had more stock. So it's still trailing the 3DS & Wii U launches thus far.
LTDs mean nothing if you don't count trends for hardware, especially at launch.
TheLegendaryN
Member
Sure, but as I've said: Nintendo can keep momentum going with big new releases in the coming months, which they failed with both 3DS and Wii U.
I will quote Peléo for The Legend of Zelda LTD sales:
BOTW is at 331.387 + 89.319 = 420.706 units, so it has overtaken Skyward Sword LTD sales in Japan already, next up is Twilight Princess at 600k.
Peléo;232976738 said:Japan only is something close to this:
Legend of Zelda 1.7m
Adventures of Link 1.6m
A Link to the Past 1.2m
Ocarina of Time 1.5m
Majora's Mask 730k
Wind Waker 900k
Twilight Princess 600k
Skyward Sword 400k
BOTW is at 331.387 + 89.319 = 420.706 units, so it has overtaken Skyward Sword LTD sales in Japan already, next up is Twilight Princess at 600k.
It's still behind by quite a bit but that's thanks to available stock in large part. We also know how the Wii U performed starting in Week 6, going to 20k and then steadily decreasing until it was below 10k per week just a few months after launch. There's not much reason to think that will happen to the Switch. The 3ds did even better but it is a handheld and it also fell off a cliff. Even if the Switch hits a lull, its appeal and the upcoming first party releases will probably keep it from ever dropping like a stone the way those did.
But is it only trailing because the stock isn't there? No-one knows, that's why I think that It doesn't matter that sales are behind 3DS and Wii U, it doesn't prove any level of success or failure in comparison as You can't compare the launch sales because they're not comparable.
Shikamaru Ninja
任天å ã® å¿è
I'm not sure I agree. I think late May or first week of June is their deadline. They probably want that IP to receive a spotlight in the press and social media, and releasing it during or post E3 would hinder that attention.
I really think that Nintendo should have launched with a third first-party title given the barren third party support during launch. A simple Captain Toad 2 would have been great company.
Switch is likely going to be between 1.25 - 1.75 million prior to the launch.
Splatoon 2 is the biggest game launching in 2017 for the Switch. I think that the 400-500k is the minimum they could sell first week. It's a game that sold the Wii U despite no notable releases besides SMM and Minecraft after it's launch. The sequel is the first portable version of Nintendo's new big franchise. The spectator mode and local lan options ensure that it's also uniquely positioned to become Japan's first major eSport. Even lacking these basic features Splatoon is huge on streaming channels in Japan, every month there are hundreds of videos with millions of views relating to the game despite the lack of streaming and community building features on the Wii U.
Honestly I'd be surprised if Nintendo and the channels don't stock at least a million for the launch. The game's demo is selling hardware.
It matters in the sense that it confuses the outlook, since we don't know what it would have sold if the stock was available, which was the point of my original post. I don't think we can establish any meaningful trend, at least not for a little while, one way or another.
Why wouldn't we? It's sold to more than half the existing userbase. It's not as aggressive as in the West, but certainly it could count as a system seller, right?
WiiU started selling sub-20K and then sub-10K after the 6th week.
It doesn't take much to catch up with it but it doesn't really matter because selling more than WiiU is such a low goal...
Yes, the last week of May is the earliest I'd see it release, though the first week of June would be more likely.
You make a good point about E3 (I did sorta forget about that... though they could always feature ARMS in a new Nintendo World Championships, along with Splatoon 2 and Smash Switch), so yeah... I'd say June 2nd would be a sweet date for ARMS. Not too close to E3, not too far from Splatoon 2, and not too long after MK8D.
LordOcidax
Member
Mario Odyssey is a 2017 title...
I think Splatoon 2 will be bigger than Odyssey in Japan (since that is what the statement pertains to) personally. Seeing Super Mario 3D World sales (a hair short of 100k), Splatoon 2 outselling Super Mario Odyssey seems like a very distinct possibility.
Edit: Checked more numbers, and yeah, Splatoon 2 will destroy it comparatively.
frankie_baby
Member
Splatoon 2 will trounce odyssey
thestopsign
Member
Splatoon 2 is bigger than that, he is right.