Media Create Sales: Week 14, 2017 (Apr 03 - Apr 09)

I'm definitely on that wall of shame. The wii U didn't seem like a good place for unknown new IP's, especially one that was a bit different like that. It's a credit to the game that it was still so successful in spite of the platform.
W101 level of bomb predictions are definitely hyperbole since Nintendo treated Splatoon very differently from W101 (it was revealed AFTER the Wii U conference, just dropped in a random trailer). But launching a successful new IP on the least popular platform was a huge achievement against all odds.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
If I am Setsuna and Disgaea 5 sold so shitty, are they on garage sale prices now?

How can I get one of each
Actually, both games' prices are still at launch levels at least on Amazon.co.jp, and I Am Setsuna I think was quite a requested item from importers (not a huge market, but still). But yeah, it would be interesting to know how things are going in actual stores. And, of course, more updated numbers for both of them: it's possible they've been experiencing a similar trend to the other games (i.e. legs), but on a different, lower magnitude of numbers.
 
If I am Setsuna and Disgaea 5 sold so shitty, are they on garage sale prices now?

How can I get one of each
It's not an expensive game to begin with but no, at least in the part of Tokyo I live, they are all sold out and the price went up on Amazon, the occasional used copy is going for about what I paid for it New at launch from Amazon (with 8% discount).

Maybe SE seriously messes up on distribution.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Also, I wanted to add that, in the past few weeks, Disgaea 5, while not that high in Japanese eShop charts, has always been higher than several more successful Switch games, like Puyo Puyo Tetris and DQH. The last time I checked (yesterday's evening here in Italy) it was higher than Bomberman as well. Of course, there are different reasons that explain why those other games could be lower than expected (PPT being a more casual game, DQH's size), but it's still interesting to notice such a trend.

Let's all hope next week Kimishima is open enough with digital sales, pleaaaaaaase
 
If speculation for Switch version that is coming out at winter alongside Asian version is true that's what I see as rough estimates:

3DS 3m-
PS4 1m+
NSW 0,5m+

Combined close to 4,5m LTD because of double or even triple dippers but not higher than that.
So low for switch? I think by the time it will be out for Switch the hw sales will be the same as PS4 LTD (or even more, mk8dx + splatoon 2 can really make it fly high). But I think which version will be ported will play a major role and make the sw sales hit or miss easily.
 
W101 level of bomb predictions are definitely hyperbole since Nintendo treated Splatoon very differently from W101 (it was revealed AFTER the Wii U conference, just dropped in a random trailer). But launching a successful new IP on the least popular platform was a huge achievement against all odds.
Don't remind us, please. The fact that they had a game like that in their cards, and kept it even though the whole conference was pretty underwhelming.... yeah, those are times where people genuinely need to be fired. It's not like they were keeping it a surprise for later or anything, they just totally shunned it. They actually chose to end their presentation with NintendoLand fireworks, just when people where expecting them to end on a high note. Not quite the "bang" we wanted. The game was sent to die from the very begining. It's like Nintendo foot the bill for development cost and not a penny more. Even with the fear that the game would require way too much mastery to attract a wider audience, they could have still given it a decent push.

Hopefully Wii U's era taught Nintendo several valuable lessons. So far, it seems like it at least got them to rethink their approach to marketing.
 
There is something peculiar about seeing a historical figure (a crazy dude, driven mad by gout and lead poisoning) represented as an anime girl represented on a boob-mouse pad.
 
There is something peculiar about seeing a historical figure (a crazy dude, driven mad by gout and lead poisoning) represented as an anime girl represented on a boob-mouse pad.
Francis Drake, known slaver, is presented as buxom pirate with cleavage like you wouldn't believe.

Fate is gonna Fate.
 
W101 level of bomb predictions are definitely hyperbole since Nintendo treated Splatoon very differently from W101 (it was revealed AFTER the Wii U conference, just dropped in a random trailer). But launching a successful new IP on the least popular platform was a huge achievement against all odds.
In hindsight it was a silly prediction and there was enough information available at the time o see that. At the time it kind of felt like the wii U was poison for SW sales, especially new IP's and that led to overly negative predictions.
 
People were doubting it would outsell Super Mario Maker and XCX in the thread, my outlandish predictions ended up correct

It's Deja vu with Splatoon 2
It's not at all. Most people are predicting huge success from splatoon 2. Even predicting it to become as big as the likes of monster hunter.

You're predictions have just went so far way overboard with almost everything regarding switch that it makes even optimistic predictions look conservative.
 
It's not at all. Most people are predicting huge success from splatoon 2. Even predicting it to become as big as the likes of monster hunter.

You're predictions have just went so far way overboard with almost everything regarding switch that it makes even optimistic predictions look conservative.
Not saying he's in any way correct but the irony is the original splatoon did just that. Optimistic was 1 million world wide, 2-3 million was treated like a mad man. It blew right past those.
 
Not saying he's in any way correct but the irony is the original splatoon did just that. Optimistic was 1 million world wide, 2-3 million was treated like a mad man. It blew right past those.
Whilst it blew past expectations the numbers it sold aren't unheard of. Suggesting numbers like 6 million in Japan alone for splatoon 2 is a whole other level of success.
 
It's not at all. Most people are predicting huge success from splatoon 2. Even predicting it to become as big as the likes of monster hunter.

You're predictions have just went so far way overboard with almost everything regarding switch that it makes even optimistic predictions look conservative.
A lot of people predicted sub 3 million Switches sold in Japan and there were tons of predictions of Splatoon doing sub 2 million. Any of these predictions are more outlandish than mine.

My prediction of over 4.5 million Switches with 4 million Splatoon 2 copies are in line with my expectations of the game ending up as one of the top 10 best selling games in Japan of all time.
It's the game Nintendo needs to do well in order for it's sub system to have an incentive for Japanese consumers to pay their monthly/annual sub.

For example you say 6 million for Splatoon 2's lifetime is outlandish - yet it's just over 3 times the amount Splatoon sold on the Wii U. Splatoon on the Wii U had a lot of features that were missing that will get corrected by the sequel while it's also a game that will continue to get content like maps, gear, weapons, events, modes.


Main factors for my prediction:
- First portable Splatoon(potential audience of a portable version is far larger than the potential audience on the Wii U)
- Spectator mode(you need a second Switch and you'd be able to record all your matches from a spectator pov - which will lead to more viral marketing for the game)
- New Mobile App integration for streaming/recording(even now if you go to niconico and youtube you could see thousands of videos for スプラトゥーン & スプラトゥーン2 each month even as you need a PC which is not exactly common item Japanese have)
- eSport(Nintendo is pushing the game as an eSport and it will be the first eSport game on a portable device)
- On-going Support(the first Splatoon was supported for an year and that contributed to it's long legs)
- New Online Sub(it's the title that Nintendo needs to do well in order to push subs in Japan in the Winter Holidays when the Switch will be at the height of it's popularity)
- Biggest new Kids franchise(there was a reason why Splatoon did so well in December of 2015 it's an extremly popular game among kids - popular enough for them to buy a Wii U which should not be underestimated)

Lesser factors:
- Additional PvE Mode(new mode that allows new players not to get disheartened by Ranked modes)
- Additional campaign(after the popularity of Calie and Marie the new lore will get more people on board)



Below are some trends that lead me to believe this would be the biggest game on the Switch in it's first 2 years on the market:
- Japanese Twitter(スプラトゥーン2 trending constantly when Switch was announced, trending when the testfire was announced, trending during last direct)
- スプラトゥーン on Youtube(each month you have content creators that generate millions of views 2 years after the game was released with no easily integrated streaming option on the Wii U)
- COMG Preorders(before pre-orders are even official)
- Google Trends(スプラトゥーン being searched as much as ドラゴンクエスト in the last 90 days with the testfire leading to searches for Splatoon to really blow up)
 
Whilst it blew past expectations the numbers it sold aren't unheard of. Suggesting numbers like 6 million in Japan alone for splatoon 2 is a whole other level of success.
You'd have to go back decades roughly to find a new IP on a console that produced similar results in Japan. obvious the trend won't continue as that's some disco sales levels predictions but what it did wasn't just blow past predictions but was a genuinely rare event in japan that hasn't been seen for a loooong time.
 
How many games have ever actually reached 6 million in Japan alone? Pokemon red/blue, maybe NSMB DS, brain training maybe? There may be more I can't remember honestly. 6 million is an absurdly large number.

I agree with most of what you say. Splatoon 2 looks destined to explode in sales. The difference is how you jump to that meaning it will be close to the best selling game of all time in Japan.

Edit: I'm not saying it's impossible. That level of success is not the sort of thing you can predict. There are plenty of indicators that splatoon 2 will be a massive seller but not to that level. Even if it did end up selling that much I still think it is a wrong prediction to make. Even the most outlandish predictions occasionally turn out true.
 
Let's just look at the announcements of both DQXI and Splatoon 2 on twitter. While some would say it would be jumping to conclusions.... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯



After careful analyassist I think 16million is a safe assumption for Splatoon 2 sales
 
How many games have ever actually reached 6 million in Japan alone? Pokemon red/blue, maybe NSMB DS, brain training maybe? There may be more I can't remember honestly. 6 million is an absurdly large number.

I agree with most of what you say. Splatoon 2 looks destined to explode in sales. The difference is how you jump to that meaning it will be close to the best selling game of all time in Japan.

Edit: I'm not saying it's impossible. That level of success is not the sort of thing you can predict. There are plenty of indicators that splatoon 2 will be a massive seller but not to that level. Even if it did end up selling that much I still think it is a wrong prediction to make. Even the most outlandish predictions occasionally turn out true.
I think Splatoon 2 sales will be around 2.5-3 million LTD
 
I think an easy prediction is Splatoon 2 doubling Splatoon ltd, so 1.7M to 3.4M. I even think Splatoon 2 will be around Splatoon ltd at the end of this calendar year.

So for it to be somewhere between 4M/5M it's possible. 6M would be something else but you won't quote me saying "impossible". It's Splatoon.
 
I don't see how anyone can say 4 million sales for any game on a system with only 4.5 million sold with a straight face. Nothing even remotely close has happened in the history of video games. Like find me a long term example.

Also Splatoon selling 4 million this year would mean it has to sell 173k/week.
 
I don't see how anyone can say 4 million sales for any game on a system with only 4.5 million sold with a straight face. Nothing even remotely close has happened in the history of video games. Like find me a long term example.
They are obviously talking long term like 5 years from now even though it's still ridiculously unlikely. Thought not really sure where your getting or talking about 4.5 million from. Is that world wide or Japan your talking about here.
 
I don't see how anyone can say 4 million sales for any game on a system with only 4.5 million sold with a straight face. Nothing even remotely close has happened in the history of video games. Like find me a long term example.

Also Splatoon selling 4 million this year would mean it has to sell 173k/week.
We're talking Japan ltd, so until Splatoon 3 drops. Nobody is saying 4M this year. I'm saying 1.7M this year though.
 
We're talking Japan ltd, so until Splatoon 3 drops. Nobody is saying 4M this year. I'm saying 1.7M this year though.
Um, no. That is exactly what Noshten thinks is going to happen. Re read his post. It's also what he said when we made our year predictions.

My prediction of over 4.5 million Switches with 4 million Splatoon 2 copies are in line with my expectations of the game ending up as one of the top 10 best selling games in Japan of all time.
 

Aostia

El Capitan Todd
I know I've been pessimistic about Switch, but some of the actual predictions about it and its software seem to presume a GREAT commercial success
am I too negative or are people too pumped by the great debut it had so far?
 
I know I've been pessimistic about Switch, but some of the actual predictions about it and its software seem to presume a GREAT commercial success
am I too negative or are people too pumped by the great debut it had so far?
What numbers do you mean exactly? Everyone is doubting/laughing at Noshten FWIW.

Edit: Splatoon did 1.15 million from launch through the rest of the year, so I think expecting 1.5-2 million is a very reasonable number to guess, and if Switch does really take off 3 million could be possible as well imo.
 
I know I've been pessimistic about Switch, but some of the actual predictions about it and its software seem to presume a GREAT commercial success
am I too negative or are people too pumped by the great debut it had so far?
i can only speak for america but so far it seems to be the real deal. talking about third-party sales too and not hardware/first-party stuff.
 
i can only speak for america but so far it seems to be the real deal. talking about third-party sales too and not hardware/first-party stuff.
I think it helps that there are so few physical SKUs out there, so people are buying whatever they see on the shelves. I am sure Bomberman and even Just Dance 2017 did very well in March along side 1-2 Switch and Zelda.