Media Create Sales: Week 15, 2014 (Apr 07 - Apr 13)

RM8

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Mar 11, 2012
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On mobile: I have embraced mobile, honestly. NOT as a handheld/console substitute, but as its own platform. There -are- good games on mobile, they're just a microscopic, downright invisible minority, but they exist. And they're very cheap! If I'm going to own a smartphone anyway, then I decided to give its games a proper chance.
 
Jun 13, 2012
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I feel this is a misconception in that many of the top hits on mobile in the US are actually directly derived from Facebook games.

Facebook didn't burn through their whales, they just moved to phones where reaching the same games were much more convenient.

Companies who failed to make the switch quickly (*cough* Zynga *cough*) got burnt hard while companies that did (Kabam) made a shitload.
source?

btw, I don't have one for my position. However, I'd wager that the lower mobile revenue in the US results from a) smartphone uptake happened sooner, and b) some of the marks were burnt on f/b. As such, the store of fresh whale meat is smaller in the US than Jp.

I believe the whales do not enjoy what they are doing, but because some f2p devs have successfully tapped into the same systems that gambling pioneered, they feel a compulsion. And just like heavy spend gamblers generally regret their activities, so too do whales.

Now, that does not mean that there is not a %age of players who drop $5 or $10 and are happy with the way things are. Those people will be around for a while, no doubt. But the whales will not.
 
Jan 5, 2012
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Honestly, I got no problem with smartphones games being on the rise, as long as publihers don't forget the other platforms.

Sales of Puzzle & Dragons Z and Dragon Quest Monsters 2 remake have proved that dedicated consoles and smartphones can co-exist without any real problem.

One thing I really wanna see is : Wonder Flick console version. Want to see how different it'll be from the smartphone game.
I don't mind existence of Puzzle & Dragons as such ( i even have 3 games on my galaxy note ;) ) . What I mind is whole market full of clones of P&D and barely anything else (well sorry it has Flappy Bird too) replacing handhelds with Personas , God Eaters which affects my enjoyment directly in a negative way.
 
Dec 5, 2012
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Toronto
Another PS4 port announced: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=804534

Akiba's Trip 2
The release date is July 3rd 2014.

New features:
- Better graphics, shorter loading times, more NPCs on the streets
- Visual Editor - changing the visuals of the city, like the time of day etc. Can't say much without more information.
- "Almost" all free and paid DLC included in the package.
- Flying panties after doing the panty jump attack, whatever that is - I've never played AS2 before.
EDIT: Wait, this is old. o.o

I don't remember seeing it posted in this thread and this is the first time I'm seeing it
 
Jun 27, 2013
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More on the mobile market, we know that developers who aims for enthusiasts exist on the west, so what about Japan? Are there any developers like that overthere? The massive language barrier makes us even harder to find them if there is any.
 
source?

btw, I don't have one for my position. However, I'd wager that the lower mobile revenue in the US results from a) smartphone uptake happened sooner, and b) some of the marks were burnt on f/b. As such, the store of fresh whale meat is smaller in the US than Jp.

I believe the whales do not enjoy what they are doing, but because some f2p devs have successfully tapped into the same systems that gambling pioneered, they feel a compulsion. And just like heavy spend gamblers generally regret their activities, so too do whales.

Now, that does not mean that there is not a %age of players who drop $5 or $10 and are happy with the way things are. Those people will be around for a while, no doubt. But the whales will not.
http://appshopper.com/bestsellers/gros/?device=iphone

Look at what the top grossing games are.

Candy Crush Saga, Farm Heroes Saga, and Pet Rescue Saga are derived from King's games on Facebook like Bubble Witch Saga.

Hay Day is basically Farmville, and FarmVille 2: Country Escape is also a top grossing mobile title.

Big Fish Casino and all the other gambling titles are like Facebook gambling games.

The Simpsons™: Tapped Out is essentially a Facebook town builder.

Underworld Empire is effectively Kabam's The Godfather game from Facebook, but without the license.

Game of War - Fire Age is like Travian, which is (was?) a very popular social browser town-building-and-combat game in Europe. The Hobbit is basically the same thing.

There are a few new additions like Clash of Clans and Boom Beach which are a bit too complicated to run in a browser without a Unity plugin, which would limit their appeal on Facebook, but doesn't stop them on mobile. They're very similar games though to the other types of hits.

Then there are things like Marvel War of Heroes which is derived from the type of social game that dominated Japanese mobile games when they were feature phones.

And on that note, feature phone game revenue was also in the multibillions in Japan for many years. They're not "fresh meat". A lot of the top grossing games in Japan are still the exact same kind that have been top grossing games for over half a decade.
 
May 24, 2013
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But why would anyone bother if they can create next collect something for lots of real money game and swim in profits at minimal risk ?
Like I said, there are enough developers that seem to abhor the idea of making those kinds of games that I don't think you'll just never see those types of games again. And besides, if mobile developers can do the above, why would they even bother porting existing games from other platforms? Why would Capcom bother redrawing all the Ace Attorney sprites and redoing the soundtrack for the iOS ports? Maybe Capcom just doesn't know how to create a whale-baiting f2p mobile microtransaction-fest to swim in those profits for minimal risk and are just playing to their strengths, but it's not like we haven't seen traditional developers trying to play in both markets.

That said, will the market for traditional games shrink in Japan? Maybe. I honestly don't know. I don't THINK it'll shrink to the point where it becomes irrelevant, but I have nothing to base that on besides instinct and tales from my ass.
 

Principate

Saint Titanfall
Dec 17, 2011
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Like I said, there are enough developers that seem to abhor the idea of making those kinds of games that I don't think you'll just never see those types of games again. And besides, if mobile developers can do the above, why would they even bother porting existing games from other platforms? Why would Capcom bother redrawing all the Ace Attorney sprites and redoing the soundtrack for the iOS ports? Maybe Capcom just doesn't know how to create a whale-baiting f2p mobile microtransaction-fest to swim in those profits for minimal risk and are just playing to their strengths, but it's not like we haven't seen traditional developers trying to play in both markets.

That said, will the market for traditional games shrink in Japan? Maybe. I honestly don't know. I don't THINK it'll shrink to the point where it becomes irrelevant, but I have nothing to base that on besides instinct and tales from my ass.
It'll definitely shrink, the mere fact Sony almost certainly won't bother with a successor assures this. Further erosion by mobile is simply icing. If the handheld industry is to survive in any meaningful way, Nintendo really needs to get it's shit together.
 
Jun 13, 2012
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http://appshopper.com/bestsellers/gros/?device=iphone

Look at what the top grossing games are.

Candy Crush Saga, Farm Heroes Saga, and Pet Rescue Saga are derived from King's games on Facebook like Bubble Witch Saga.

Hay Day is basically Farmville, and FarmVille 2: Country Escape is also a top grossing mobile title.

Big Fish Casino and all the other gambling titles are like Facebook gambling games.

The Simpsons™: Tapped Out is essentially a Facebook town builder.

Underworld Empire is effectively Kabam's The Godfather game from Facebook, but without the license.

Game of War - Fire Age is like Travian, which is (was?) a very popular social browser town-building-and-combat game in Europe. The Hobbit is basically the same thing.

There are a few new additions like Clash of Clans and Boom Beach which are a bit too complicated to run in a browser without a Unity plugin, which would limit their appeal on Facebook, but doesn't stop them on mobile. They're very similar games though to the other types of hits.

Then there are things like Marvel War of Heroes which is derived from the type of social game that dominated Japanese mobile games when they were feature phones.

And on that note, feature phone game revenue was also in the multibillions in Japan for many years. They're not "fresh meat". A lot of the top grossing games in Japan are still the exact same kind that have been top grossing games for over half a decade.
And this proves that whales remain in the ecosystem long term? Exactly the same people who spent hundreds on farmville are now spending it on Hay Day? Naw, its just conjecture, like my statements. AFAIK, nobody has shared data which shows either the life expectancy or migration patterns of whales.

I believe games with nano-precise compulsion loops that hook and milk susceptible players burn them out, you do not. Whose right? I guess will see in 10 years when we have a fuller picture.

And just to re-iterate, the whales are only a small highly profitable subset. I have no doubt the industry will be healthy living off ads and the nickle and dime players.
 
And this proves that whales remain in the ecosystem long term? Exactly the same people who spent hundreds on farmville are now spending it on Hay Day? Naw, its just conjecture, like my statements. AFAIK, nobody has shared data which shows either the life expectancy or migration patterns of whales.

I believe games with nano-precise compulsion loops that hook and milk susceptible players burn them out, you do not. Whose right? I guess will see in 10 years when we have a fuller picture.

And just to re-iterate, the whales are only a small highly profitable subset. I have no doubt the industry will be healthy living off ads and the nickle and dime players.
Okay so walk me through what your exact prediction/analysis is here and how you see that affecting the market in concrete terms over the next five years.
 

L~A

Member
Jan 19, 2013
12,188
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http://appshopper.com/bestsellers/gros/?device=iphone

Look at what the top grossing games are.

Candy Crush Saga, Farm Heroes Saga, and Pet Rescue Saga are derived from King's games on Facebook like Bubble Witch Saga.

Hay Day is basically Farmville, and FarmVille 2: Country Escape is also a top grossing mobile title.

Big Fish Casino and all the other gambling titles are like Facebook gambling games.

The Simpsons™: Tapped Out is essentially a Facebook town builder.

Underworld Empire is effectively Kabam's The Godfather game from Facebook, but without the license.

Game of War - Fire Age is like Travian, which is (was?) a very popular social browser town-building-and-combat game in Europe. The Hobbit is basically the same thing.

There are a few new additions like Clash of Clans and Boom Beach which are a bit too complicated to run in a browser without a Unity plugin, which would limit their appeal on Facebook, but doesn't stop them on mobile. They're very similar games though to the other types of hits.

Then there are things like Marvel War of Heroes which is derived from the type of social game that dominated Japanese mobile games when they were feature phones.

And on that note, feature phone game revenue was also in the multibillions in Japan for many years. They're not "fresh meat". A lot of the top grossing games in Japan are still the exact same kind that have been top grossing games for over half a decade.
Fantastic post... exactly what I was looking for.

It shows that what people are looking on smartphones is radically different from what people are looking for on traditional consoles.
 
Fantastic post... exactly what I was looking for.

It shows that what people are looking on smartphones is radically different from what people are looking for on traditional consoles.
This is why we don't really see it eating into the core oriented home consoles in the West.

There isn't very much substitutional value between Candy Crush and Call of Duty.

However, there is quite a lot between Brain Age and Quiz RPG, which is what's eating up the casual market the DS and Wii used to have.

Similarly, this is why games like Monster Hunter still perform very well in Japan.

However, if you have a game that sells 100,000-200,000 on a handheld in Japan, there's a fair question if you want to bother making it or instead try making four mobile games, even if they're for a notably different audience.

I feel this is the crux of what's eroding the handheld traditional market in terms of games. It's not the big titles, it's the ones with a bad value in the opportunity cost.
 
Jun 13, 2012
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Okay so walk me through what your exact prediction/analysis is here and how you see that affecting the market in concrete terms over the next five years.
Well, lets see...according to this¹, the 90th percentile of payers (0.15% of player base) contribute more than 50% of revenue.




Out of that 0.15% player base, how many are in the compulsive and regretful category², the ones who may have addiction and impulse control issues and will eventually stop playing? That is the question, and I do not have an answer.

My guess is that it will follow the revenue pattern of f/b games as the markets mature: goldrush-->peak-->decline-->baseline. Although the f/b game timeline was compressed since PC penetration was maximum before the process began; mobile might take longer as penetration has not peaked.

¹ ]report is restricted to freemium games and examines only revenue delivered via inapp purchases and is restricted to a single month of data - providing a snapshot of how mobile gamers monetize; it is not intended to show lifetime values

² These are the people game companies spend their resources on getting, retaining, and milking. Yes, they do need those who spend the other 50%, and they also need the fodder to compliment payers. But the focus is on tuning games' compulsion loops to feed into that addictive impulse control dynamic to drive revenue.