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Media Create Sales: Week 15, 2015 (Apr 06 - Apr 12)

L~A

Member
Jan 19, 2013
12,188
0
610
Cyber Sleuth won't be the best selling one. Digging up MC data (since Famitsu seems to be off by a considerable amount) shows that Re:Digitize on PSP did 172k. Famitsu had the first Digimon Story on DS and the first Digimon World on PSone over 200k, but I'm not digging up those MC numbers (if any exist for the latter).

Assuming Adventure Tri isn't getting delayed, the game could continue to have some legs.

Well, the anime already got delayed, since broadcast plans will be announced on May 6th.
 

hiska-kun

Member
Mar 9, 2012
3,567
0
595
Spain
Media Create: Monthly Hardware 2015

Code:
+-------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+
| Month |    3DS   |    PSV   |    PS4   |   WiiU   |    PS3   |  XB One  |   Total  |
+-------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+
|January|   326.739|   125.809|   107.999|    63.623|    48.930|     1.981|   675.081|
|  Feb  |   168.806|    82.453|   111.015|    26.200|    27.845|     2.513|   418.832|
| March |   125.971|    89.763|   159.420|    28.726|    27.870|     1.346|   433.096|
| April |          |          |          |          |          |          |          |
|  May  |          |          |          |          |          |          |          |
| June  |          |          |          |          |          |          |          |
| July  |          |          |          |          |          |          |          |
| August|          |          |          |          |          |          |          |
| Sept. |          |          |          |          |          |          |          |
|October|          |          |          |          |          |          |          |
|  Nov. |          |          |          |          |          |          |          |
|  Dic. |          |          |          |          |          |          |          |
+-------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+
| Total |   621.516|   298.025|   378.434|   118.549|   104.645|     5.840| 1.527.009|
+-------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+
 
Sure. One thing is, though, having hits in the mobile market; another thing is having enough hits (or enough profitability) such that the business in the mobile market could offset the losses from a "catastrophic 4DS", that is the main source of revenues of the company.
This is certainly true. There's a reason why the NX is something they're actively developing.

That said, Wii/DS -> Wii U/3DS was also a catastrophic failure with tremendous revenue/profit decline, yet they're still around and making money, so this is hard for me to see as anything but a potential positive for their business. Even if it fails, it's unlikely to cost a fortune, and the potential upside has a very high cap.

To use a similar example from merchandizing, Amiibos can't even begin to compare to the money Skylanders make, but they're still a good source of income worth investing in.

Among the unsuccessful companies, I'd put Level-5. Also, it remains to be seen how long-term are the hits of the mentioned companies.
Yes, Level 5 is actually a pretty great example of failure so far. Like Capcom, they're clearly a company that really wants mobile success, but has yet to put up even a single successful title in the modern mobile market.

For the others, I'll provide some brief analysis.

Generally Safe:
- Square Enix - Square Enix often has 5-6+ games in the top 100 and quite a few of those are rank very highly on a frequent basis. Right now they have two games in the top 10 grossing positions, and this is all excluding Record Keeper through DeNA. While about half the titles they release fail, the amount of successes they have far outweigh that.
- Sega - Sega is a smaller company that Square Enix in terms of their video game business, and is constantly reporting back on how happy they are with titles that aren't even in the top 100. They've also continued to experience strong growth both in revenue and in successful title count (by their own definition of success), so I feel it's very unlikely for them to consider their mobile ventures unsuccessful anytime soon.
- Bandai Namco - Their performance is very similar to how they do on dedicated devices in that they release 500 titles and have a lot of smaller to mid sized successes. They're sitting at 11 titles in the top 100, starting with a few at about rank 20, and their output rate is pretty staggering.

Notably all three of these publishers are in the top 10 earners for 2014 on mobile in Japan:


Hard To Say:
- Konami - When their titles do well, they often do very well (they're sitting with two top 15 hits right now), but as their games are all sports titles, they're tied very heavily to the sports calendar. This means they make a whole lot of money during the sports season, and decidedly less when the corresponding sport is not in season. Given people can compete on sports licenses, this does mean there's existing competition as well, but assuming they can maintain dominance in the genre (which they're doing a decent job of), it puts in some reliability as well (assuming people keep liking Baseball and Soccer).

Notably Questionable:
- Marvelous - Marvelous only has one hit. It's a *really big* hit, but it's only one game, which puts them in the same type of position as Mixi and Gung-Ho. The studio that made the game (Aiming) also had an IPO, so I'm not sure if Marvelous will continue to publish their future games. Now, some games last a very, very long time, so this might not be a problem for Marvelous, and their new Magic Castle city builder is showing promise, but I'd like to see 3-4 hits out of them at the same time before I consider them a safe bet. Repeated success would by far be my biggest determinator for long term success.

Business diversification might be good, but it's not a solution per se. Nintendo had everything riding on the blue ocean strategy after the GC, so it'd not be something new for them. Let's wait and see how their approach towards mobile gaming will be.
As it stands Nintendo's core business is still inexorably linked to their hardware and traditional device software, so barring huge breakout success, successes and failures in that arena will determine most of their revenue.

It takes a long time to ramp up other businesses, so maybe that won't be true in 5-10 years, but year if we're discussing the short term or even the mid-term, I agree they have to have success with their next platform if they're going to have even remotely good results.
 

Takao

Banned
Mar 19, 2009
50,996
0
0
Toronto, Canada
Well, the anime already got delayed, since broadcast plans will be announced on May 6th.

Didn't see that. Have to wonder if this will be another web-series (like Sailor Moon Crystal and Saint Seiya: Soul of Gold) or if it'll be on TV. If it's the latter, the turn around from announcement to debut could be quick.
 

Wynnebeck

Banned
Aug 5, 2012
13,020
0
0
Don't know why everyone is acting shocked. We knew that the school season was starting back up so sales were going to drop hard. Give it some time to stabilize.
 

Percy

Banned
Apr 29, 2014
5,273
1
0
This is the first troubled week after the famous "PS4 revival" which just like PS4 launch and Wii U launch didn't take more than 2 weeks for hopes and dreams to crush, and sets the pattern for the empty months until MGSV. So... not really.

Uh... okay?
 

Kresnik258

Member
Jan 25, 2014
9,210
0
0
Expected. Dull week.

I can see PS4 sub 10k pretty soon. The slew of games probably helped with short-term viability but it's not going to help massively long term - there was nothing with legs released; nothing that's truly massive and only on PS4, so ehh.

Vita... holding on slightly better, but still not great. I guess the stream of smaller releases is what helps that.

3DS holding on well for the stage of life that it's currently in at least.

Minecraft's legs aren't as fantastic as I'd have expected really, the only positive thing I can say is that it's good legs for a Vita game.

Assassination Classroom doing well though. I wonder why Bamco misjudge 3DS anime shipments recently.

Pro Yakyuu 2016 needs to move to a more viable platform as well as Vita/PS3.

I wonder if the Vita version of SAO: Lost Song will outsell Infinity Moment? Doesn't look like it.

And blimey, One Piece cratered. And SRW is significantly down, too, at least Vita version is almost matching last year's game.
 

Kathian

Banned
Jul 16, 2014
4,788
0
0
Horrendous week. Still don't get what they were doing with Souls; could they just not complete it to come out earlier?
 
Aug 14, 2014
195
0
0
So in terms of sales, it seems to me that Dragon Age Inquisition had a much better attach rate in Japan on PS4(60K or so I believe) than Xenoblade 3D(55k-65K).
 

Elandyll

Banned
Oct 13, 2014
7,121
0
0
Arizona
Is there a logical reason for how badly Disgaea 5 sold?

I know that having it on PS4 exclusively was probably not the best idea (when looked from a purely sales perspective), but the PS4 install base is around 1.4m units, and a lot of these owners I would have imagined would be prone to buy a Disgaea game.

Did the game itself review that badly?
 

Eolz

Member
Jun 1, 2014
10,193
20
535
Is there a logical reason for how badly Disgaea 5 sold?

I know that having it on PS4 exclusively was probably not the best idea (when looked from a purely sales perspective), but the PS4 install base is around 1.4m units, and a lot of these owners I would have imagined would be prone to buy a Disgaea game.

Did the game itself review that badly?

Bad time of the year (lots of games releasing at the same time) and not the audience on PS4 yet maybe? Seemed badly managed tbh.
 

Percy

Banned
Apr 29, 2014
5,273
1
0
Is there a logical reason for how badly Disgaea 5 sold?

I know that having it on PS4 exclusively was probably not the best idea (when looked from a purely sales perspective), but the PS4 install base is around 1.4m units, and a lot of these owners I would have imagined would be prone to buy a Disgaea game.

Did the game itself review that badly?

In addition to install base being low, I imagine releasing against a couple of bigger titles (eg. Bloodborne)probably did it no favours.
 

system11

Member
Jun 28, 2013
3,610
0
0
UK
blog.system11.org
Are you new to this? For the past few years whenever someone mentions a new positive baseline for a system in trouble it will disappoint their expectations without fail. You can even set your clock by it.

I knew from the start the PS4 wouldn't keep a 20k baseline as do most regulars here.

Anyone sane would expect it to peak and trough directly according to what games are being released that week. It's just how Japan works. When MGS comes out I expect we'll see more 'OMG KING IS BACK' posts again and the 'SKY IS FALLING' the week after. Gaming sales across the board are incredibly front loaded now save for extreme examples like GTAV.
 
May 18, 2012
7,413
0
0
Is there a logical reason for how badly Disgaea 5 sold?

I know that having it on PS4 exclusively was probably not the best idea (when looked from a purely sales perspective), but the PS4 install base is around 1.4m units, and a lot of these owners I would have imagined would be prone to buy a Disgaea game.

Did the game itself review that badly?

Personally, I've long felt that Disgaea was a really odd choice for a game to try to build a franchise around. After 6 games (D1-5, plus the direct D1p2), numerous portable remakes, and a few spin-off series (Prinny & the Visual Novel), I think the franchise fatigue is real.
 

AlbionHero

Banned
Feb 24, 2015
104
0
0
Personally, I've long felt that Disgaea was a really odd choice for a game to try to build a franchise around. After 6 games (D1-5, plus the direct D1p2), numerous portable remakes, and a few spin-off series (Prinny & the Visual Novel), I think the franchise fatigue is real.

Its not like NIS really has any other choice though. None of their other franchises have really made any noise so they're banking their entire company on Disgaea essentially. If Disgaea stops selling it doesn't look pretty for NIS as a whole.
 

Prelude.

Member
Jun 18, 2013
7,740
0
0
Cyber Sleuth won't be the best selling one. Digging up MC data (since Famitsu seems to be off by a considerable amount) shows that Re:Digitize on PSP did 172k. Famitsu had the first Digimon Story on DS and the first Digimon World on PSone over 200k, but I'm not digging up those MC numbers (if any exist for the latter).

Assuming Adventure Tri isn't getting delayed, the game could continue to have some legs.
Well, I'm considering the base on which the anime boost will add on. Around 150k (I guess, unless the anime is delayed to next year) is not bad as a starting point.
I don't think it'll be a web series considering the staff involved, anyway.
 

saichi

Member
Apr 8, 2010
2,736
0
0
So in terms of sales, it seems to me that Dragon Age Inquisition had a much better attach rate in Japan on PS4(60K or so I believe) than Xenoblade 3D(55k-65K).

That's assuming Xenoblade 3D stop selling any more copies today. If Dragon Age Inquisition PS4 can start at 29K and crawl to 60K with the help of holidays, Xenoblade 3D will probably crawl to 100K with GW coming up.
 

ZSaberLink

Media Create Maven
Jul 29, 2010
4,427
244
1,040
It looks like at least Mario Kart 8 will hit a million. Perhaps SSBU can still eventually hit it if the DLC momentum manages to keep it hovering in the top 30.

Does anyone have any first-party Wii U software ltds?

Not a chance for Smash Wii U. Mario Kart 8 is essentially bundled, so yes it'll hit 1M. https://sites.google.com/site/japanltdrank/show?platform=WIU


So Chris, what kind of legs are we expecting here?
08./11. [WIU] Mario Party 10 # <ETC> (Nintendo) {2015.03.12} (¥5.616) - 9.404 / 117.940 <60-80%> (-37%)


http://www.gonintendo.com/s/251136-...ase-date?sid=e5c4ec865582eccc65b02415d7a9fa8d
Is this looks like a manga/anime spinoff? Releases 6/25.
 

Jigorath

Banned
Aug 22, 2013
12,903
3
0
twitter.com
PS4 reaching last year's baseline?

Also PSV is dropping a lot.

3DS is, instead, increasing. It will have a good Golden Week with some interesting software.

No it isn't. It's down week on week and year on year.

And I'm not sure anyone would be surprised about PS4 dropping. It sells well when games release on it, it drops when there's a drought. Like every system ever. Look at WiiU, barely anything has released on it all year, so it's 300k in sales behind the PS4. And do I even need to point out the XB1?
 
Jul 31, 2007
24,446
1
0
37
Kansas, USA
Urgh. 15k as the 'stable point' for nogaemsweek PS4 now looks kinda grim.
6-7 million units for the PS4 lifetime was my expectation. This is actually trending lower than that.

I kind of hoped it would stabilize in the 20k region.

Man... consoles have almost no relevancy in Japan anymore. The entire home console market isn't going to reach 10 million units at this rate. I mean both facets of the dedicated systems market has cratered gen on gen. Dedicated handhelds are going to lose roughly half of the prior gens unit total, as are consoles, but consoles were starting from a much lower level in the first place. Around 24 million units last gen. Handhelds were around 50 million.

This gen handhelds are going to end around the 25 million unit mark, and consoles below 10 million units.

Around 35 million units for the entire dedicated market this gen versus the 70+ million units last gen.

I guess it really isn't questionable why devs are moving to mobile en masse in Japan. Unless things change drastically on the next round of platforms there won't be much of a market to sell to at all.
 

ZSaberLink

Media Create Maven
Jul 29, 2010
4,427
244
1,040
Do you think there's anything Sony could have done to convince Square Enix that a game like Star Ocean 5 should be PS4 exclusive? Or even multiplat with Vita (aka NOT PS3)?
 

Oregano

Member
Mar 13, 2013
12,412
3
0
Do you think there's anything Sony could have done to convince Square Enix that a game like Star Ocean 5 should be PS4 exclusive? Or even multiplat with Vita (aka NOT PS3)?

If Sony could make those systems sell better on the strength of their own software that would help.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Mar 10, 2011
22,885
0
955
30
theflyingthoughtsblog.wordpress.com
Do you think there's anything Sony could have done to convince Square Enix that a game like Star Ocean 5 should be PS4 exclusive? Or even multiplat with Vita (aka NOT PS3)?

I fear that, at this point, while being a cross-gen release with PS3 dampens the PS4 SKUs sales potential, the same could happen for a PS4-Vita release. I mean, see how One Piece: Pirate Warriors 3 is still selling better on both PS3 and Vita than PS4. And that's despite Dragon Quest Heroes selling very well on PS4 too (while lower than PS3).
 

Gidim

Banned
Feb 25, 2015
38
0
0
California
Jesus is Yakuza Zero the lowest selling Yakuza title in Japan?

I wonder how they will move forward with the franchise. I think everyone is ready for their next big IP.
 

BlowoverKing

Banned
Mar 16, 2014
266
0
0
Well, I'm considering the base on which the anime boost will add on. Around 150k (I guess, unless the anime is delayed to next year) is not bad as a starting point.
I don't think it'll be a web series considering the staff involved, anyway.

And, even though it might not be much, Famitsu digital estimates for Digimon's first 2 weeks is ~10,000. So digital sales may help close the gap a little compared to previous entries.
 

Kandinsky

Member
Jun 8, 2004
10,138
0
1,305
Wow Xenoblade really bombed, I was also expecting Bloodborne numbers to go up because of shortages from last week, weird.

PS4 hurry up and save gaming in JP plz.
 

sörine

Banned
Sep 1, 2013
7,582
0
0
Do you think there's anything Sony could have done to convince Square Enix that a game like Star Ocean 5 should be PS4 exclusive? Or even multiplat with Vita (aka NOT PS3)?
Sony is probably having to do sone heavy lifting to even get these games on PS4 as is. Without Sony/Koei pushing SE for it DQH would've been a PS3 exclusive.
 

ArkhamFantasy

Member
Oct 13, 2013
9,880
0
0
Is there really nothing coming out in the next 4 months to help the PS4 out? PS4 is going to have a really hard time if its waiting 5 months for MGS5 (which is cross gen).
 
Dark Souls 2 and Dragon Ball XenoVerse have both surpassed 2.5 million shipped worldwide.

For Dark Souls 2 that's not super shocking given Dark Souls 1 did about the same.

For Dragon Ball this has got to be Namco's most successful licensed game in ages, and probably had barely any budget either.

Hopefully DIMPS gets to use UE4 for the next one given both Street Fighter V and School of Ragnarok have notably nice visuals and are made by DIMPS on the engine.
 
J

Jpop

Unconfirmed Member
Wow Xenoblade really bombed, I was also expecting Bloodborne numbers to go up because of shortages from last week, weird.

PS4 hurry up and save gaming in JP plz.

It had shortages in a few places but not enough to really make a difference.

Xenoblade did decent, remember its only on the n3DS.

I think you mean the NX on that last part ;)