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[Principate]

Not sure I sign this. 3DS is pretty much exception and even it will have decent final LTD in US. WiiU did kinda even between Japan and US considering the differences in market size and Gamecube and N64 that bombed in Japan sold way better in US. Europe is by far the hardest market for Nintendo.

I meant between the two Europe in general is harder but Nintendo would be more worried about the NA sales between the two at this moment. The switch is marketed as a home console currently which will always appeal to NA more. Worst case scenario they can sell the handheld sku separately quicker in Japan if it were to start bombing but Japan is currently Nintendo's safest market. much like how the 3DS ate into the PSP's marketshare the switch is doing the same to the Vita. The fact the switch hs such a successful launch also means Japanese publishers won't as easily ignore it as japan only hardware potential.

It could fall off but I'm not seeing it based on any current trend on the two regions.

 

[horuhe]

Ready for 2020!

 

[Eolz]

3DS is still up year on year, 6 years in. One of the all time greats in the region

Oh yeah, it was more a weekly observation, 3DS is still doing great considering its userbase size and the market today.

 

[And_Gignac]

Yeah, Switch is the new DS.

25+ million Japan sales
125+ million WW sales

A bit too early to tell. Let's wait for 3rd party support.

Spoiler

I agree with your prediction though, the sign is on the wall

 

[Vinnk]

is the Switch supply constrained in Japan? Impressive numbers either way.

Yes. Seeing one in the wild is still a rare sight. And it will likely be gone by the next time you look (or as you are looking).

 

[Nirolak]

We can now refer to Namco's new IP as Not God Eater™.

 

[Hero of Legend]

Famitsu's up! I'll add the Switch numbers to my post now.

https://www.famitsu.com/biz/ranking/

Edit: Done! Puyo Puyo Tetris S passes 31k!

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=233792704&postcount=101

 

[L~A]

We can now refer to Namco's new IP as Not God Eater™

That was my reaction too. Even took me a few seconds to remember it's supposed to be a Dark Souls-type of game.

 

[Rodin]

Can Zelda leg it to a million? That would make me so happy.

The game will keep selling for the rest of the generation and has two dlc coming, so yeah, it's possible. It's already halfway there.

 

[LordKano]

Bamco probably know that God Eater 3 will bomb so they're already preparing the successor.

Spoiler

/s

 

[Orgen]

I guess Tekken 7 in early June (and well even Tekken isn't that big release nowadays). Gundam Versus and FF XII Zodiac Age are in early July. Gonna be barren for a while.

Nobody believes in Prey? Given the rise for western games in Japan one could think that Prey could sell more than 100.000 LTD but I don't know how are the preorders faring so far :|

 

[foxuzamaki]

Ironically some switch ports probably would have mitigated some of this. Alas we'l see what Capcom's plan in regards that is.

Capcomn is the company that put the disney afternoon collection on everything but the 3ds, Wii u, or switch

 

[Kingpin Rogers]

Yeah, Switch is the new DS.

25+ million Japan sales
125+ million WW sales

Far far far far far too soon to tell.

 

[Kanann]

We can now refer to Namco's new IP as Not God Eater™.

Labeled your game as "Dying game" is cool now huh?

 

[L~A]

Just realised the 2DS was gonna hit 400k in the upcoming weeks. Guess it should be able to reach 500k by the end of the year, if not even better. Maybe Chris can post the 2DS vs GB Micro chart again?

 

[Welfare]

So assuming a decent level of stock for Mario Kart and May, if demand doesn't drop like a rock we should expect Switch to pass 1M in June, right?

 

[Zedark]

So assuming a decent level of stock for Mario Kart and May, if demand doesn't drop like a rock we should expect Switch to pass 1M in June, right?

That's basically a given, the real question is how much higher it will be by the end of June.

 

[Lorcain]

Am I reading that right that the Switch passed the PS4 and 3DS in YTD sales in Japan? That seems like a big deal.

 

[ArchedThunder]

That's basically a given, the real question is how much higher it will be by the end of June.

I think the bigger question is how much Splatoon 2 will push things in July and August.

 

[Principate]

That's basically a given, the real question is how much higher it will be by the end of June.

Clearly ARMS great success will ensure it handsomely beats 1 mil.

 

[Chris1964]

Nobody believes in Prey? Given the rise for western games in Japan one could think that Prey could sell more than 100.000 LTD but I don't know how are the preorders faring so far :|

There are people who care for Prey?

 

[Charamiwa]

There are people who care for Prey?

An heavily marketed System Shock successor from Arkane Studios, why wouldn't they?

 

[Principate]

A System Shock successor from Arkane Studios, why wouldn't they?

I think he's talking about in Japan which is a valid question.

 

[Nirolak]

Honestly I'm even skeptical of Prey in the West given how Dishonored 2 went.

 

[Welfare]

That's basically a given, the real question is how much higher it will be by the end of June.

Ok, just making sure. I was thinking it would end June around 1.2M.

 

[Lexxism]

Am I reading that right that the Switch passed the PS4 and 3DS in YTD sales in Japan? That seems like a big deal.

Not really. It was expected. At least to me. Switch might surpass both on Famitsu on MK8D release.

 

[CharminUltra]

NICE Switch numbers

 

[SgtCobra]

Very impressive hold for the Switch, I'm eager to see what Japanese third parties have to offer.

 

[Chris1964]

An heavily marketed System Shock successor from Arkane Studios, why wouldn't they?

Maybe, but not in Japan.

 

[Luigiv]

This must be the week illusions end for some.

+--+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+
|  |  MCreate |  MCreate |  MCreate |  MCreate |  MCreate |
|  |    3DS   |    PSV   |    WIU   |    PS4   |    NSW   |
|Wk|2011.02.26|2011.12.17|2012.12.08|2014.02.22|2017.03.03|
|  |    to    |    to    |    to    |    to    |    to    |
|  |2012.02.19|2012.12.09|2013.12.01|2015.02.15|2018.02.25|
+--+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+
| 1|   374.764|   324.859|   308.142|   309.154|   329.152|
| 2|   209.623|    72.479|   126.916|    65.685|    61.998|
| 3|    96.463|    42.648|   122.843|    35.294|    49.913|
| 4|    61.394|    42.915|    69.386|    29.677|    78.441|
| 5|    50.710|    18.361|    67.083|    30.201|    45.509|
| 6|    42.979|    15.219|    20.715|    23.327|    41.193|
| 7|    32.910|    18.942|    16.654|    13.401|    45.673|
| 8|    28.252|    17.141|    13.746|    13.034|          |
| 9|    23.038|    13.939|    12.959|    14.396|          |
|10|    28.413|    12.309|    12.185|    12.712|          |
|11|    29.149|    11.186|    10.744|    11.486|          |
|12|    18.324|    10.023|     9.633|     8.480|          |
|13|    17.240|    10.041|    10.021|     6.792|          |
|14|    24.283|    10.021|     9.454|     7.543|          |
|15|    27.357|    10.302|     9.539|     6.508|          |
|16|    24.649|    12.105|    11.398|     9.466|          |
|17|    40.649|     8.931|    22.829|     8.395|          |
|18|    27.905|     8.250|    14.783|     7.009|          |
|19|    30.233|     8.206|     9.984|     8.059|          |
|20|    22.943|    12.299|     8.798|     7.876|          |
|21|    46.637|    10.583|     8.262|     7.150|          |
|22|    31.826|     6.340|    13.173|     6.456|          |
|23|    16.415|     6.347|     7.974|     5.581|          |
|24|     4.132|     6.675|     6.037|     5.695|          |
|25|   196.077|     7.551|     5.648|     5.470|          |
|26|   105.639|    13.383|     6.680|     6.913|          |
|27|    60.781|    34.459|     6.330|     5.923|          |
|28|    54.744|    13.589|     5.983|     6.502|          |
|29|    49.076|    25.636|     5.329|     7.299|          |
|30|    58.837|    13.758|     7.060|    23.623|          |
|31|    70.159|    13.427|     8.251|     8.939|          |
|32|    58.504|    11.932|    22.199|     8.033|          |
|33|    53.540|    10.846|    14.280|     7.350|          |
|34|    55.025|     9.038|    11.373|    11.697|          |
|35|    73.933|     9.446|    10.038|     8.046|          |
|36|    65.041|    11.298|     9.950|     8.942|          |
|37|   145.271|    10.880|    12.047|     8.906|          |
|38|   103.962|    50.070|     7.030|    10.078|          |
|39|    96.219|    14.106|     6.741|    15.537|          |
|40|   120.920|    10.858|     5.702|    12.430|          |
|41|   205.962|     9.295|     5.003|    13.489|          |
|42|   350.321|    14.469|     5.824|    15.971|          |
|43|   367.691|     7.957|     5.909|    68.041|          |
|44|   482.200|     6.134|     4.001|    30.951|          |
|45|   197.952|     6.791|     3.276|    33.150|          |
|46|   240.819|     5.806|     2.999|    42.216|          |
|47|   100.668|     4.842|     2.598|    19.118|          |
|48|    80.960|     4.021|    38.802|    15.480|          |
|49|    84.789|    13.091|    17.737|    13.793|          |
|50|    75.018|     9.712|    15.906|    17.392|          |
|51|    67.558|    11.066|    21.002|    18.758|          |
|52|    94.667|    11.039|    28.518|    21.381|          |
+--+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+

Quick and dirty excel graph of this data for anyone interested.

Looks like the Switch will cross the Wii U line soon. Surpassing the 3DS in the short term still seems like it's going to be a challenge, but it's not impossible if it can keep up the same trajectory (easier said then done, admittedly). Will be interesting to see if it can keep up after the 3DS's price drop spike, because the system went absolutely beast mode after that (5m units in one year is nothing to scoff at).

 

[jonno394]

So assuming a decent level of stock for Mario Kart and May, if demand doesn't drop like a rock we should expect Switch to pass 1M in June, right?

Switch will pass 1m by end may/early June imo. 650k now. 45k per normal week, 100k for mk8 week means 975k by 28th may at a minimum. 13 week 1m to match 3ds.

 

[Orgen]

There are people who care for Prey?

Just the same people that could care for Horizon for example (I know, not really comparable). Does at least have multiplayer? How much did Dishonored 2 sell in Japan?

 

[Welfare]

Switch will pass 1m by early June imo. 650k now. 45k per normal week, 100k for mk8 week means 975k by 28th may at a minimum. 13 week 1m to match 3ds.

Ah, yeah was thinking the same thing. Forgot to put "early June" instead of just June.

 

[Chris1964]

Golden Week holidays cover 2 weeks, not one. Second is the dead one for new releases.

 

[Waluigilicious]

I have a hypothetical question. If the Switch was widely available this week, how long do you guys think it would have sold? Something like 80k?

 

[frankie_baby]

I have a hypothetical question. If the Switch was widely available this week, how long do you guys think it would have sold? Something like 80k?

There are retailers doing raffles to allocate switches, they probably could sell double that if the stock was there

 

[Meier]

I know this isn't news by any means, but I had no clue that the Xbone hadn't even managed 100k in Japan. That is frankly pretty incredible. It looks like it sells a consistent number though if the YTD this year is the same as last more or less.

 

[JonnyDBrit]

Quick and dirty excel graph of this data for anyone interested.

Looks like the Switch will cross the Wii U line soon. Surpassing the 3DS in the short term still seems like it's going to be a challenge, but it's not impossible if it can keep up the same trajectory (easier said then done, admittedly). Will be interesting to see if it can keep up after the 3DS's price drop spike, because the system went absolutely beast mode after that (5m units in one year is nothing to scoff at).

If those legs hold, which I mean, I do expect that much with MK8D on the way. I know the long term is where it really matters, but seeing the Switch buck the trend since week 3 is promising.

 

[Chris1964]

I think the bigger question is how much Splatoon 2 will push things in July and August.

The bigger question is at what level Switch demand will be at the slow period after Golden Week and the potential big restocks from Nintendo.

 

[BronzeWolf]

PS4 did sell like crap in Japan holy shit

 

[jonno394]

The bigger question is at what level Switch demand will be at the slow period after Golden Week and the potential big restocks from Nintendo.

If the switch sells out the big stock made available for mk8d release and then only 45k a week are available for the weeks after, do you think it'll struggle to sell those 45k a week during the post golden week lull?

 

[Principate]

PS4 did sell like crap in Japan holy shit

Your finding this out now? Did the worse initial sales than the vita not tip you off.

 

[Busaiku]

So we can safely say that Switch will be around 2-2.5 million at the end of the year if sales keep above 40k a week and then does 100-150k in he last 3 weeks of the year?

2 - 2.5 million would be a disaster.
If it can't do 3 million at least, Japan is done.

 

[Man God]

The bigger question is at what level Switch demand will be at the slow period after Golden Week and the potential big restocks from Nintendo.

Really depends on MK8 Deluxe then!

 

[Chris1964]

If the switch sells out the big stock made available for mk8d release and then only 45k a week are available for the weeks after, do you think it'll struggle to sell those 45k a week during the post golden week lull?

Hypothetically if Nintendo ships 200k for Golden Week I don't think it will be as difficult to find a Switch in May or June, without this meaning sales will drop drastically.

 

[BronzeWolf]

Your finding this out now? Did the worse initial sales than the vita not tip you off.

I knew it sold badly, but not that badly. It makes sense that 3rd parties were so late to it , it had no userbase. I think they will start flooding the Switch with games soon, especially since Japan isn't so fixated with graphics or performance.

 

[Aostia]

Hypothetically if Nintendo ships 200k for Golden Week I don't think it will be as difficult to find a Switch in May or June, without this meaning sales will drop drastically.

I also hope that Switch sales will somehow be able to go over the stock issues, to better understand the actual sales potential sooner or later.
Hopefully sooner (after GW?)

 

[JonnyDBrit]

PS4 did sell like crap in Japan holy shit

Your finding this out now? Did the worse initial sales than the vita not tip you off.

Everything that isn't the 3DS has sold like crap in Japan. PS4 has only somewhat turned it around through sheer longevity, and the Slim. Longer term references, courtesy of hiska-kun, from last week:

 

[Oersted]

On that note, someone at Nintendo better be working on the next Animal Crossing

 

[Principate]

On that note, someone at Nintendo better be working on the next Animal Crossing

Animal Crossing will almost certainly be coming next year and if no at most the year after. It's one of the few major IP's they haven't released announced to be released for the system and they probably want it as a holiday pusher.