Media Create Sales: Week 16, 2014 (Apr 14 - Apr 20)

Nov 13, 2011
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Sure its relevance has notable declined but its still as relevant as the biggest markets in EU.

I thought the point of the launch being later was to ensure there were more titles were there at/near the launch.
My statement was largely in response to the idea that Japan is the crux of the PS4 reaching something around 100M units, when it's really not that crucially important. It's still a large market. But performance in Japan isn't any more important than performance in the UK, France and Germany. Continental Europe and NA will ultimately make up 85% of the PS4's sales, if not 90%+.

Unless we're really nitpicking the difference between say 97M and 100M I suppose.

On the delay I think there are numerous reasons, but I think part of it was a recognition that it is not as important as a standalone market as it used to be and of course that the competition won't be as intense.
Only Sony knows those expectations :) But i'm wondering what would be a better investment if the handheld market isnt that important anymore.
Medical imaging.
 
Feb 28, 2009
9,062
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0
Tokyo
Only Sony knows those expectations :) But i'm wondering what would be a better investment if the handheld market isnt that important anymore.
How do they know those expectations? By what means? Is it all the Vita they aren't selling that let's them know there is demand?

And that medical imagining will be done by Sony Bend or Cambridge?

You seem to speak purely about money but there's also a question of existing human or infrastructure resources.
If they cared about that I imagine they would have kept their Ginza office.
 
Dec 8, 2008
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England
Well striking hard into your biggest opponent stronghold is much better strategy that securing market where you have zero competition for whole generation.
I guess we'll need to wait and see how the two markets perform over the generation. I don't think Japan is notably more important than the UK for consoles though.

I also don't think Sony have zero competition in Japan. Unless something major changes, they're going toe-to-toe with the Wii U. Crazy.

Only Sony knows those expectations :) But i'm wondering what would be a better investment if the handheld market isnt that important anymore.
Getting Playstation Now on smartphones and tablets. Make a dedicated iOS / Android compatible Dualshock 'M'.

Might as well give it a go.
 
Jan 5, 2012
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I also don't think Sony have zero competition in Japan. Unless something major changes, they're going toe-to-toe with the Wii U. Crazy.
Yeah about that - not going to happen. As support ramps up PS4 will only go up. Wii U either already peaked in 2013 or will peak this year and will go only down after Kart and Smash effect is gone.
 
Nov 13, 2011
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And that medical imagining will be done by Sony Bend or Cambridge?

You seem to speak purely about money but there's also a question of existing human or infrastructure resources.
PS4. Smartphones. Tablets. Services.

Bend is already working on a PS4 game and were originally a console studio before being relegated to making handheld versions of console franchises. Likewise Cambridge, or rather Guerilla Cambridge.

If the value of that human capital is inherently tied to handheld systems then there's already no further use for it, so it will need to be adapted or restructured.
 
Jun 12, 2012
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Yeah about that - not going to happen. As support ramps up PS4 will only go up. Wii U either already peaked in 2013 or will peak this year and will go only down after Kart and Smash effect is gone.
I don't thinik many people think the PS4's LTD will be lower than the Wii U's. The issue is, the end difference between them might not be as high as most people were expecting, unless something changes. So, even though it will win, the question will be how close it got to the PS3.
 
Dec 8, 2008
35,663
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725
England
A lot of people said, the Vita should have had phone functionality. In hindsight, they were right.
I dunno, man. Smartphones with gaming controls are ideal for gamers, but nobody else. They're about as niche as dedicated handhelds. I think they're better off keeping the hardware standard, establishing Playstation Now, and then offering a standardised controller for gamers. Give the games on-screen buttons (yup, all of 'em) for the people that don't care about control fidelity.

Yeah about that - not going to happen. As support ramps up PS4 will only go up. Wii U either already peaked in 2013 or will peak this year and will go only down after Kart and Smash effect is gone.
I don't think anything is certain, even (Japanese) support for the PS4 ramping up. I think it's likely that the PS4 will start to pick up and will end up with significantly higher lifetime sales, but I wouldn't say it was a certainty.
 
Feb 15, 2007
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0
I dunno, man. Smartphones with gaming controls are ideal for gamers, but nobody else. They're about as niche as dedicated handhelds. I think they're better off keeping the hardware standard, establishing Playstation Now, and then offering a standardised controller for gamers. Give the games on-screen buttons (yup, all of 'em) for the people that don't care about control fidelity.
Why not have both, in one convenient piece of hardware?
 
Dec 8, 2008
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England
Why not have both, in one convenient piece of hardware?
It can't be done. The Vita is already as small as you can feasibly get decent controls and a decent screen, and that's without triggers. It's far too large and unwieldy to use as a phone.

I guess you could make a gaming tablet, but that's just as niche as a handheld.

I honestly think that a correctly packaged and marketed mobile controller could work. Hell, give the controller away with a 12 month subscription to Playstation Now or something. Some sort of bastard amalgamation of the PSN Store, PS+, and a streaming rental service, but for mobile devices.
 
Feb 15, 2007
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It can't be done. The Vita is already as small as you can feasibly get decent controls and a decent screen, and that's without triggers. It's far too large and unwieldy to use as a phone.
The success of the phablets and otherwise phone screens getting bigger and bigger points in another direction.
 
Jun 9, 2012
26,506
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0
[3DS] Mario Golf World Tour (25 days) -207K
[PS3] Idolmaster One for All (11 days) - 49K
[PS3+PSP+3DS] Winning Eleven 2014 Blue Samurai (4 days) - 100K
[PSV] To LoveRu Darkness Battle Ecstasy (4 days) - 29K
[PS4] inFamous Second Son (4 days) - 26K



Also you certainly can get a good screen at a smaller size than Vita. Of course, I still don't think that people want bulky controls tacked onto a phone.
 

Aostia

El Capitan Todd
Sep 2, 2011
18,552
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I guess we'll need to wait and see how the two markets perform over the generation. I don't think Japan is notably more important than the UK for consoles though.

I also don't think Sony have zero competition in Japan. Unless something major changes, they're going toe-to-toe with the Wii U. Crazy.


Getting Playstation Now on smartphones and tablets. Make a dedicated iOS / Android compatible Dualshock 'M'.

Might as well give it a go.
Wait, are you serious about the toe-to-toe PS4-WiiU race in Japan?
PS4 costs more, but will have way more games coming out than the Wii U. We can argue that they released few titles for the Japanese market so far, but we all know that every developer is working on PS4, unlike the Wii U (where just Nintendo is developing, even facing HD struggles).
Even if developers are also oriented to mobile and portables in Japan, that doesn't change the fact that games with worldwide appeal (that include Japan) will be released for PS4 (and Xbone, but...seriously?) and will sell at least decently (MGSV, RE7, new DMC, PES, FFXV, KH3, and so on and on) helping the console to stay relevant at least.
I really think that PS4 is the only console that could be able to repeat its predecessor's LTD HW number in Japan. Wii U will AT BEST repeat GC LTD nubmers instead..
 
Jun 12, 2012
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Wait, are you serious about the toe-to-toe PS4-WiiU race in Japan?
PS4 costs more, but will have way more games coming out than the Wii U. We can argue that they released few titles for the Japanese market so far, but we all know that every developer is working on PS4, unlike the Wii U (where just Nintendo is developing, even facing HD struggles).
Even if developers are also oriented to mobile and portables in Japan, that doesn't change the fact that games with worldwide appeal (that include Japan) will be released for PS4 (and Xbone, but...seriously?) and will sell at least decently (MGSV, RE7, new DMC, PES, FFXV, KH3, and so on and on) helping the console to stay relevant at least.
I really think that PS4 is the only console that could be able to repeat its predecessor's LTD HW number in Japan. Wii U will AT BEST repeat GC LTD nubmers instead..
Xbox 1 :)
 
Jun 9, 2012
26,506
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0
Even if developers are also oriented to mobile and portables in Japan, that doesn't change the fact that games with worldwide appeal (that include Japan) will be released for PS4 (and Xbone, but...seriously?) and will sell at least decently (MGSV, RE7, new DMC, PES, FFXV, KH3, and so on and on) helping the console to stay relevant at least.
In the same way that Nintendo's huge properties cannot sustain a console, having a console with only the big 3rd party games also cannot sustain a console. One could have easily said before the Wii U launched (and many of us did) that Donkey Kong, 2d Mario, Mario Kart, Smash, etc. would give the Wii U a big boost in Japan, and yet they didn't. Without a constant stream of software in Japan which will require more than just big companies making big games, the PS4 will never be anything more than an afterthought in Japan and the only reason the system will even get those games is for the west.
 
Mar 22, 2007
23,613
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1,000
Would Sony make more money investing more money into this though?


How do they know those expectations? By what means? Is it all the Vita they aren't selling that let's them know there is demand?
By doing market analysis and guesswork, and if they have an idea that they think can be successful. The conclusion that comes from this is either to continue in the business or to drop out. Only Sony knows what they expect regarding the future of the handheld gaming side.

Believing in your product is also very important. If a company makes a product that fails commercially, and they dont expect their next product to sell better, it would be kinda pointless to continue the business. A new product is also a new product. Older product doesnt necessarily have much relevance to that. For example, the Wii was amazingly successful because the idea was great and the price was right. The Gamecube sales didnt really affect the Wii success.


Getting Playstation Now on smartphones and tablets. Make a dedicated iOS / Android compatible Dualshock 'M'.

Might as well give it a go.
Maybe it could work, but i think they would have some really strong competition on the software side. Or, it depends on what type of games Playstation Now would get and how it would differentiate itself from iOS/Android.
 
Jul 28, 2012
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Wait, are you serious about the toe-to-toe PS4-WiiU race in Japan?
PS4 costs more, but will have way more games coming out than the Wii U. We can argue that they released few titles for the Japanese market so far, but we all know that every developer is working on PS4, unlike the Wii U (where just Nintendo is developing, even facing HD struggles).
Even if developers are also oriented to mobile and portables in Japan, that doesn't change the fact that games with worldwide appeal (that include Japan) will be released for PS4 (and Xbone, but...seriously?) and will sell at least decently (MGSV, RE7, new DMC, PES, FFXV, KH3, and so on and on) helping the console to stay relevant at least.
I really think that PS4 is the only console that could be able to repeat its predecessor's LTD HW number in Japan. Wii U will AT BEST repeat GC LTD nubmers instead..
Yeah. PS4 is really all the console sector has going for it.

XB1 in no way will be able to reach 360's LTD. Will be lucky to reach 1 million.

My statement was largely in response to the idea that Japan is the crux of the PS4 reaching something around 100M units, when it's really not that crucially important. It's still a large market. But performance in Japan isn't any more important than performance in the UK, France and Germany. Continental Europe and NA will ultimately make up 85% of the PS4's sales, if not 90%+.

Unless we're really nitpicking the difference between say 97M and 100M I suppose.

On the delay I think there are numerous reasons, but I think part of it was a recognition that it is not as important as a standalone market as it used to be and of course that the competition won't be as intense.Medical imaging.
Oh I entirely agree. Sony can reach 100 million without JP with the PS4. I'm just saying in terms of absolute sales, JP is still one of Sony's most important markets.

I guess its true Sony doesn't have much if anything to worry about the PS4's competition in JP.
 
Feb 20, 2013
3,047
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UK
In the same way that Nintendo's huge properties cannot sustain a console, having a console with only the big 3rd party games also cannot sustain a console.
I would argue that Nintendo's properties are a lot less relevant on their own than big third party games. At very least at the moment.

I'm not exactly sure about what you mean by big 3rd party titles not able to support a console. If they can't then what can? An obvious answer I could see, would be a combination of 3rd and 1st party releases. Are we assuming Japan Studio won't develop anything Japanese centric on the PS4 at all?
 
Aug 4, 2005
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So I was the closest in PS4 HW... I never thought I'd make it when Mantis predicted 300.000 and said I was going to lose :3

And now you said XB1 will be lucky to hit 1 million LTD in Japan... XB1 to rule Japan confirmed! hahaha :p
 

Aostia

El Capitan Todd
Sep 2, 2011
18,552
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He said "repeat," Xbox One will crush its predecessor.
with the power of the cloud, Xbone will triple 360's LTD sales!

In the same way that Nintendo's huge properties cannot sustain a console, having a console with only the big 3rd party games also cannot sustain a console. One could have easily said before the Wii U launched (and many of us did) that Donkey Kong, 2d Mario, Mario Kart, Smash, etc. would give the Wii U a big boost in Japan, and yet they didn't. Without a constant stream of software in Japan which will require more than just big companies making big games, the PS4 will never be anything more than an afterthought in Japan and the only reason the system will even get those games is for the west.
I agree that the constant stream of games is essential, but I don't see PS4 getting drought à la Wii U, even just for the simple reason that we are talking about 1 developer (Nintendo) VS almost all the other developers (not only Sony, but almost everyone, even if not with Japanese-centric games, that could still be aimed at mobile/portable).

You are comparing Nintendo effort on Wii U (so basically 2 "important" games a year) VS way more projects. From Sega (Yakuza) to Tecmo Koei (Dinasty Warriros), from Konami (PES to MGS) to Capcom (RE), without forgetting Namco and From Software, without forgetting western developers that we saw are able to sell decently (from Activision with COD to Rockstar with GTA).

Plus we know that also smaller develoeprs are already working on PS4 (considering PS3 in decline and Vita that is not strong as PSP was, it is obvious to see developers spread "Sonyìs IPs" also onto PS4: Falcom, Gust, Nippon Ichi, GungHo with Grassoppher's game and so on and on and on)

I'm not talking about PS4 as strong as PS2 back in the days, notice. I'm talking about PS4 dominant among home consoles in Japan, possibly able to repeat PS3 LTD.s (that we know would be great in Japan, looking at all other videogame consoles compared to the past generation)

I would argue that Nintendo's properties are a lot less relevant on their own than big third party games. At very least at the moment.

I'm not exactly sure about what you mean by big 3rd party titles not able to support a console. If they can't then what can? An obvious answer I could see, would be a combination of 3rd and 1st party releases. Are we assuming Japan Studio won't develop anything Japanese centric on the PS4 at all?
I think he was talking about AAA vs smaller but more constant games to be released.
the fact is that PS4 will not receive so many games as mobile/portable probably will (due to longer developing times, smaller relevance of home market in Japan and so on), but will still receive a very good amount of games, considering all the developers working on the platform. So there will be drought, sometimes, in its lifecycle (like, right now), but with mid-tier games, and AAA productions, to me it will easily dominate the home market in Japan.

The fact that the relevance of the home market is shrinking is a different topic.
 
Jul 28, 2012
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In the same way that Nintendo's huge properties cannot sustain a console, having a console with only the big 3rd party games also cannot sustain a console. One could have easily said before the Wii U launched (and many of us did) that Donkey Kong, 2d Mario, Mario Kart, Smash, etc. would give the Wii U a big boost in Japan, and yet they didn't. Without a constant stream of software in Japan which will require more than just big companies making big games, the PS4 will never be anything more than an afterthought in Japan and the only reason the system will even get those games is for the west.
I disagree . Nintendo's properties have a very narrow audience: the Nintendo fan. However those franchises all have large fan bases that importantly do not overlap as much as Nintendo's.

I do agree though that a constant stream of software is whats important and not just your big AAA games but smaller titles which the PS3 got. Though I have faith that those smaller PS3 franchises will be making their way to the PS4.
 

L~A

Member
Jan 19, 2013
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I really hope we get the Media Create numbers today. I know it's Golden Week, but today's not a holiday, so I'm hopeful. Guess we'll see soon enough...
 
Feb 16, 2008
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In the same way that Nintendo's huge properties cannot sustain a console, having a console with only the big 3rd party games also cannot sustain a console. One could have easily said before the Wii U launched (and many of us did) that Donkey Kong, 2d Mario, Mario Kart, Smash, etc. would give the Wii U a big boost in Japan, and yet they didn't. Without a constant stream of software in Japan which will require more than just big companies making big games, the PS4 will never be anything more than an afterthought in Japan and the only reason the system will even get those games is for the west.

I would say big third party games would sustain a console better than nintendo games due to the diversity alone. I won't play buy a console for KH but will for FF. And their are plenty of people of the opposite nature. I just think there is less overlap in the buyers thus more opportunity for console sales. So to me unless one of the nintendo games is a break out huge hit like a wii sports you have a smaller pool of interested buyers.
 
Dec 24, 2011
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Mobius
I disagree . Nintendo's properties have a very narrow audience: the Nintendo fan. However those franchises all have large fan bases that importantly do not overlap as much as Nintendo's.

I do agree though that a constant stream of software is whats important and not just your big AAA games but smaller titles which the PS3 got. Though I have faith that those smaller PS3 franchises will be making their way to the PS4.
I'm confused as to why Nintendo's game can only be appealing to "the Nintendo fan", and no one else.

Mario Kart Wii's sales were not all propped up by "the Nintendo fan".
 
Nov 4, 2012
15,052
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0
Am I too late for prediction league?

[3DS] Mario Golf World Tour (25 days) - 141,733
[PS3] Idolmaster One for All (11 days) - 96,495
[PS3+PSP+3DS] Winning Eleven 2014 Blue Samurai (4 days) - 42,905
[PSV] To LoveRu Darkness Battle Ecstasy (4 days) - 25,240
[PS4] inFamous Second Son (4 days) - 41,388


I'm confused as to why Nintendo's game can only be appealing to "the Nintendo fan", and no one else.

Mario Kart Wii's sales were not all propped up by "the Nintendo fan".
I don't think Psycho_Mantis is quite right in how things operate, but I do thing that phenomena-level games tend to draw in their own audience. A lot of Dragon Quest players, for example, may not play many other games at all. If they do, they'll likely be from recognizable series.

I think that these sort of games are more affected by a system's popularity than niche ones, and benefit more from the popularity of the system and from other big name titles that are available on it. Nintendo has a lot of franchises that are in this class.
 
Aug 10, 2012
5,977
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0
Prediction League May 2014

[3DS] Mario Golf World Tour (25 days) - 140K
[PS3] Idolmaster One for All (11 days) - 60K
[PS3+PSP+3DS] Winning Eleven 2014 Blue Samurai (4 days) - 80K
[PSV] To LoveRu Darkness Battle Ecstasy (4 days) - 20k
[PS4] inFamous Second Son (4 days) - 35K
 
Jul 28, 2012
26,651
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0
I'm confused as to why Nintendo's game can only be appealing to "the Nintendo fan", and no one else.

Mario Kart Wii's sales were not all propped up by "the Nintendo fan".
The Wii was an anomaly and we all know this.

Look at the GC, N64 and the WiiU. They all have varied games (WiiU to a lesser extent for now) yet the sales are decreasing.

Actually let me re think it. Its more like a console with only Nintendo games is only going to appeal to Nintendo fans. Sure there are others that have interest but having such a limited library in comparison to the competition is what results in their user base being so low.
 
Mar 22, 2009
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I'm confused as to why Nintendo's game can only be appealing to "the Nintendo fan", and no one else.

Mario Kart Wii's sales were not all propped up by "the Nintendo fan".
they were propped up by the brain training/farmville/candy crush crowd. They moved from ds to wii to facebook to mobile. They follow the platform that is popular not the games
 
Feb 28, 2009
9,062
0
0
Tokyo
By doing market analysis and guesswork, and if they have an idea that they think can be successful. The conclusion that comes from this is either to continue in the business or to drop out. Only Sony knows what they expect regarding the future of the handheld gaming side.

Believing in your product is also very important. If a company makes a product that fails commercially, and they dont expect their next product to sell better, it would be kinda pointless to continue the business. A new product is also a new product. Older product doesnt necessarily have much relevance to that. For example, the Wii was amazingly successful because the idea was great and the price was right. The Gamecube sales didnt really affect the Wii success.
If for some odd reason Sony decides to have a third go at a handheld (and I don't think they will) I doubt the person heading up the market analysis will keep their job for very long after.

I disagree . Nintendo's properties have a very narrow audience: the Nintendo fan. However those franchises all have large fan bases that importantly do not overlap as much as Nintendo's.

I do agree though that a constant stream of software is whats important and not just your big AAA games but smaller titles which the PS3 got. Though I have faith that those smaller PS3 franchises will be making their way to the PS4.
This is still a Japan thread right?

There are only 3 types of video game audiences here in Japan then: smartphone/tablet, nintendo, and otaku.

The second largest gaming group here are 'Nintendo fans', and the general population does not think very highly of Sony true believers.

I think perhaps PS4 might do a bit better than WiiU in the long run, but if so not by much, it's not off to a good start.
 
Jul 28, 2012
26,651
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If for some odd reason Sony decides to have a third go at a handheld (and I don't think they will) I doubt the person heading up the market analysis will keep their job for very long after.



This is still a Japan thread right?

There are only 3 types of video game audiences here in Japan then: smartphone/tablet, nintendo, and otaku.

The second largest gaming group here are 'Nintendo fans', and the general population does not think very highly of Sony true believers.

I think perhaps PS4 might do a bit better than WiiU in the long run, but if so not by much, it's not off to a good start.
I see, you must be one of those Japanese experts.
 
Jun 5, 2013
8,808
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New York, NY
Well, I do live here; just reporting it as I see it.
But your anecdotal wisdom, regardless of where you live, flies in the face of historical knowledge. I'm speaking very very specifically about this line:
There are only 3 types of video game audiences here in Japan then: smartphone/tablet, nintendo, and otaku.
Radical generalizations (that don't take in to account any form of console or handheld casual) is pretty ridiculous.

Who is buying Yokai Watch (hardcore Nintendo fans???)? Who made the Souls games big? They don't fit into any stereotype of the three subsets you just listed.

Edit: I guess I can't tell sarcasm =/
 
Nov 4, 2012
15,052
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But your anecdotal wisdom, regardless of where you live, flies in the face of historical knowledge. I'm speaking very very specifically about this line:

Radical generalizations (that don't take in to account any form of console or handheld casual) is pretty ridiculous.
Pretty sure that he's being sarcastic there.
 
Jul 28, 2012
26,651
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Well, I do live here; just reporting it as I see it.
That was a reference to a meme and not a compliment.

Your anecdotes do not by any means represent whats going in Japan so stop making nonsensical claims like this:

There are only 3 types of video game audiences here in Japan then: smartphone/tablet, nintendo, and otaku.

The second largest gaming group here are 'Nintendo fans', and the general population does not think very highly of Sony true believers.
 
Mar 22, 2007
23,613
2
1,000
If for some odd reason Sony decides to have a third go at a handheld (and I don't think they will) I doubt the person heading up the market analysis will keep their job for very long after.
Well, there is currently a market there even if its much smaller than before. Its a gamle on how much smaller or bigger that market will be in 3-6 years from now. I think it falls mostly on how much a company believes in their potentially new idea. We will see what happends :)
 
Jan 3, 2011
620
0
0
New Zealand
Prediction League May 2014

[3DS] Mario Golf World Tour (25 days) - 130,000
[PS3] Idolmaster One for All (11 days) - 75,000
[PS3+PSP+3DS] Winning Eleven 2014 Blue Samurai (4 days) - 65,000
[PSV] To LoveRu Darkness Battle Ecstasy (4 days) - 28,000
[PS4] inFamous Second Son (4 days) - 30,000