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Media Create Sales: Week 17, 2013 (Apr 22 - Apr 28)

Past instances of massive turnarounds

I don't think you realize just how bad Wii U is selling vs how big of a turnaroud it would take to ship 9 million.

I think sarcasm, hehe.

Anyways, lets say Nintendo continues to sell, what, 100K units a month worldwide until July? That means 300K for the 1st quarter? That leaves 8.7 million for the next 9 months, so for good measure round it to 9 million to make it a million a month.

Yes Nintendo will have to increase Wii U sales by 1000% to reach their forecast. And base off approximate demographics, 500K a month in the US, 300K a month in Japan, and 200K Europe/rest of the world.

NO chance in hell....it is just investor fluff that is going to bite them in the ass hard.

These are shipments and not real sales and Nintendo could try and stuff the channels, but it becomes progressively harder to do so with 2 new consoles launching this year.Things will get harder not easier
 
Good week for the Vita.

Wii U will remain where it is until Nintendo unleashes the games. Nothing out of the ordinary there, only thing is to see how low it can go before it's inevitable revival and success.
 
I don't think you realize just how bad Wii U is selling vs how big of a turnaroud it would take to ship 9 million.

yeah geez, what if wii u sales actually start to get worse?

8k/week japan, 32k/month

weekly pace by march npd for 54k/month usa

eu sales by rumor are abysmal, lets say 30k/month

116k/month worldwide?
 
Cause a company has to try things and be a little offensive and ahead or it dies ?
Why do you think they release something like Bravely default to begin with. It's important to create new ips and linking them to a console community can help.

A company might well be lazy and do tons of money as well. Just look at Western third parties on DS and Wii last-gen; if a company sells well with portings and low-budget titles, why putting more effort on a userbase that's just above one million, and with almost zero chance to sell well outisde Japan? Actually Square tried with one new IP on Vita, Army Corpse of Hell, and it's not that it sets the chart on fire. To complete, I don't see third parties risking on Vita; they're doing multi with PSP for their biggest projects (Toukiden, God Eater, LBX) and even in that case they're doing something safe. Let's see how many announcements Vita will receive in the near future. What was the last one already?
 

Effect

Member
When they do their recovery plan i.e. release titles, and there's no bump, then you can mock. Until then, come on...

No they should be mocked now. The low sales are completely their fault. It's deserved and they should be mocked. I still have hope and wishfulness that they'll turn things around so I don't feel like I wasted money buying the system. However I have no problem putting blame where it's due when it comes to the sales.

The thing is there never should have been a need for a recovery plan.
 

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
I'm comparing Wii U units sold this week (8,000) to no Wii U software breaking 4,000 units this week (in retail). So either everyone buys it digitally (which I find asinine because of Nintendo's digital policy) or no Wii U title is reaching a 50% attach rate with new purchasers. Add in that there isn't that many titles out there so the purchasing spread will be small, I'm just seeing bad news all around.

That makes no sense.
 
Or simply sales are dispersed among 4 titles? Until last week or so, we had NL, NSMBU, G&W and DQX in the Top30. G&W was at 3.9k units. This week we had plenty of releases that pushed back many small sellers. The top50 from MC should give us an idea.

As I said, the amount of titles makes the sales spread small, so by doing a normalized probability curve (which is bogus in consumer purchasing habits) to give each title an equal chance, you would still expect a title to reach near 4000, even if the 8000 new purchasers bought 1 game each, and that none of the previous Wii U owners bought any games this week (again bogus). It is true that some titles may be close to 4000, but no matter how you try to explain it, it is exceptionally, exceptionally poor.

And I back up some of these thoughts with the last Nintendo report that showed pretty poor software sales in general.
 

Kimawolf

Member
No they should be mocked now. The low sales are completely their fault. It's deserved and they should be mocked. I still have hope and wishfulness that they'll turn things around so I don't fee like I wasted money buying the system. However I have no problem putting blame where it's do when it comes to the sales.

The thing is there never should have been a need for a recovery plan.


Yep. they had YEARS to see how development costs were affecting other companies, had YEARS to plan their software teams adequately and be sure everything is ready for their launch.

They botched it, so now they are getting their just desserts. I do think they'll SOMEWHAT right the ship, but they are just a precursor to the rest of this generation.
 
I'm still trying to figure out in what universe 20k for a handheld in Japan are ok.

If Vita could manage to sell 20k a week from now on, I would say it reached its goal of niche status in Japan and could theoretically survive. It's not going to sell 20k a week with its sporadic lineup. Same thing I see happening to Wii U. Even if it does recover on the back of Nintendo games, Nintendo can not release games every week, and the sporadic lineup will send it free falling once again after this year's holidays
 
As I said, the amount of titles makes the sales spread small, so by doing a normalized probability curve (which is bogus in consumer purchasing habits) to give each title an equal chance, you would still expect a title to reach near 4000, even if the 8000 new purchasers bought 1 game each. It is true that some titles may be close to 4000, but no matter how you try to explain it, it is exceptionally poor.

And I back up some of these thoughts with the last Nintendo report that showed pretty poor software sales in general.

Hardware sales are poor, software sales follow accordingly. I don't see how the half hardware units threshold might be a sign of something more specific. Before G&W and DQX were released, either NSMBU and NL were selling about half of those hardware sales though.
 

DarkMehm

Member
Wait...

Media create

PSV | 21.399


Famitsu

PSV | 17.070


It's no secret that Famitsu tracks Sony/MS systematically lower than MC and all Nintendo stuff higher. A tracking company obviously can't have a bias, so Famitsu just thinks that the small shops in small villages that they can't track have a higher affinity towards Nintendo, so they calculate the numbers a bit differently than MC.
 

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
To be clear, you would except with 8000 new Wii U purchases and what, half million previously owned Wii U's on the market, for any title to reach 4000 units sold to make it on the sales chart.

That did not happen, which is bad.

Without having full numbers, this post makes no sense. It is very possible that multiple titles sold around 4k.
 

honorless

We don't have "get out of jail free" cards, but if we did, she'd have one.
I don't know how much is it already now ? Is it as cheap as the 3ds ?
It's less than 1000 yen more than the 3DS LL. The price is competitive.

I'm guessing Experience is satisfied with Cross Blood Infinity's sales, despite the apparent low numbers. Re-release of a re-release, and FW sales are still around a third (wow what was I thinking) of their new IP Demon Gaze. please please bring DG to north america ok
 
I don't think you realize just how bad Wii U is selling vs how big of a turnaroud it would take to ship 9 million.



These are shipments and not real sales and Nintendo could try and stuff the channels, but it becomes progressively harder to do so with 2 new consoles launching this year.Things will get harder not easier

Heavy Channel stuffing actually can cause some regulatory issues with investment filings; plus which retailer is going to give up warehouse space for this? Warehouse space costs money every day, believe it or not.
 

Suirrad

Member
16./31. [3DS] Dragon Ball Heroes: Ultimate Mission <TBL> (Bandai Namco Games) {2013.02.28} (¥5.800) - 8.834 / 169.866 <80-100%> (+283%)

o_O

Nice Vita rise I'm guessing due to shipments coming in. So much for the legs on Soul Sacrifice though :(
 
Attack of the re-releases!

[PSP] Photo Kano (Kadokawa) - 34.095 / 54.514
[PSV] Photo Kano Kiss (Kadokawa) - 30.172 / NEW

[PS3] Dragon's Dogma (Capcom) - 302.040 / 467.375
[PS3] Dragon's Dogma: Dark Arisen (Capcom) - 125.363 / NEW

[360] Labyrinth Cross Blood Reloaded - 6178 / 8576
[PSV] Labyrinth Cross Blood: Infinity - 9.006 / NEW
What about Kiseki?
 

allan-bh

Member
It's great when put into perspective. Everyone and their dog's buying a 3DS in Japan, so any increases for the Vita is always a good thing.

In DS era was the same thing, and PSP did much better than Vita.

20k per week for a gaming portable in Japan is far from great.
 

Bruno MB

Member
Code:
-------------------------------------------------------------
|    |   [B]Tomodachi Col.[/B]  | [B]TC: Shin Seikatsu[/B] |  [B]Difference[/B]  |
|    | [NDS] (2009/06/18)| [3DS] (2013/04/18)|              |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|
|Week|  Weekly |   LTD   |  Weekly |   LTD   |  TC - TC:SH  |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|
|  1 |  100.373|  100.373|  411.025|  411.025|       310.652|
|  2 |   70.117|  170.490|  151.741|  562.766|       392.276|
|  3 |   50.944|  221.434|         |         |              |  
|  4 |   52.698|  274.132|         |         |              | 
|  5 |   60.060|  334.492|         |         |              |  
|  6 |   71.175|  405.367|         |         |              |  
|  7 |   78.174|  484.541|         |         |              |  
|  8 |   88.958|  572.499|         |         |              |  
|  9 |  126.484|  698.983|         |         |              | 
| 10 |   66.596|  765.579|         |         |              |
| 11 |   69.757|  835.336|         |         |              |
| 12 |   88.033|  923.369|         |         |              |
| 13 |   70.214|  993.583|         |         |              |
| 14 |   72.719|1.066.302|         |         |              |
| 15 |   89.801|1.156.103|         |         |              |
| 16 |   68.371|1.224.474|         |         |              |
| 17 |   63.632|1.288.106|         |         |              |
| 18 |   60.251|1.348.357|         |         |              |
| 19 |   51.908|1.400.265|         |         |              |
| 20 |   52.736|1.453.001|         |         |              |
| 21 |   65.576|1.518.577|         |         |              |
| 22 |   62.907|1.581.484|         |         |              |
| 23 |   59.481|1.640.965|         |         |              |
| 24 |   68.244|1.709.209|         |         |              |
| 25 |   70.977|1.780.186|         |         |              |
| 26 |   96.917|1.877.103|         |         |              |
| 27 |  187.920|2.065.023|         |         |              |
| 28 |  246.925|2.311.948|         |         |              |
| 29 |  183.209|2.495.157|         |         |              |
| 30 |   98.717|2.593.874|         |         |              |
| 31 |   62.033|2.655.907|         |         |              |
| 32 |   56.539|2.712.446|         |         |              |
| 33 |   55.433|2.767.879|         |         |              |
| 34 |   45.563|2.813.442|         |         |              |
| 35 |   44.424|2.857.866|         |         |              |
| 36 |   37.144|2.895.010|         |         |              |
| 37 |   35.488|2.930.498|         |         |              |
| 38 |   38.052|2.968.550|         |         |              |
| 39 |   38.570|3.007.120|         |         |              |
| 40 |   37.391|3.044.511|         |         |              |
| 41 |   41.327|3.085.838|         |         |              |
| 42 |   36.602|3.122.440|         |         |              |
| 43 |   25.274|3.147.714|         |         |              |
| 44 |   19.194|3.166.908|         |         |              |
| 45 |   18.454|3.185.362|         |         |              |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|
|Year|   YTD   |   LTD   |   YTD   |   LTD   |  Difference  |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|
|  1 |2.311.948|2.311.948|  562.766|  562.766|    -1.749.182|
|  2 |1.196.148|3.508.096|        -|        -|             -|
|  3 |  126.510|3.634.606|        -|        -|             -|
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|
| LTD|        -|3.634.606|        -|  562.766|    -3.071.840|     
-------------------------------------------------------------
 
Without having full numbers, this post makes no sense. It is very possible that multiple titles sold around 4k.

And with the amount of titles on the market, is still very poor. Again, retailers are going to give up shelf space at that rate. Nintendo may make more with digital sales, but retailers don't care about that...

Seriously, the 360 in Japan has 5 titles on the list...the 360. There is no defending this as bad news for Nintendo that will be lucky to reach 2/3s of their current fiscal year forecast.
 

orioto

Good Art™
A company might well be lazy and do tons of money as well. Just look at Western third parties on DS and Wii last-gen; if a company sells well with portings and low-budget titles, why putting more effort on a userbase that's just above one million, and with almost zero chance to sell well outisde Japan? Actually Square tried with one new IP on Vita, Army Corpse of Hell, and it's not that it sets the chart on fire. To complete, I don't see third parties risking on Vita; they're doing multi with PSP for their biggest projects (Toukiden, God Eater, LBX) and even in that case they're doing something safe. Let's see how many announcements Vita will receive in the near future. What was the last one already?

You're making it look like Vita is dying, but it's actually gaining strengh. It may be slow, but it's a positive dynamic. You're saying there won't be any new announcement, but if there was announcement when it was selling under 10k, don't you think the park growing and the sales growing, with a now less expensive console, would give more confidence to devs ?

It's the thing with the Vita.It was really in bad shape at first cause it was NOT marketed to regain the psp market. The thing you see happening now, with all those psp/vita games, is an actual shift, a generational transition. Now that it's engaged, vita is more safe. PSP stopped selling crazy, Vita is selling better, big psp games are also coming on Vita. You see, the dynamic is there now. Vita will have all the usual sellers on PSP. In 1-2 years from now, there won't even be a psp version anymore. And the market will be healthy enough for third parties to release original games. But i think SS or Gravity Daze were rentable already you know..
 

liger05

Member
Luigi’s has been one immense success for Nintendo worldwide.

Looking at the disaster which the Wii U is right now I don’t think Nintendo have a choice but to simply make sure the 3DS remains the powerhouse it has become in Japan and do whatever they can to get sales up in the West. The 3DS has to remain #1 priority!!
 

zroid

Banned
Code:
-------------------------------------------------------------
|    |   [B]Tomodachi Col.[/B]  | [B]TC: Shin Seikatsu[/B] |  [B]Difference[/B]  |
|    | [NDS] (2009/06/18)| [3DS] (2013/04/18)|              |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|

Looks like the next 2-3 weeks will be critical for seeing how well its legs hold compared with the DS version
 
I'm still trying to figure out in what universe 20k for a handheld in Japan are ok.

Yeah, the alarm bells were ringing loud and hard when the 3DS dropped into the high 20ks back when, but with the Vita you have to remember where it was before (low points as low as 6k). It's not that 20k is necessarily good enough for a healthy system, but it's okay for now considering where the Vita was and gives people reasons to hope things can improve afterall.
 

Pie and Beans

Look for me on the local news, I'll be the guy arrested for trying to burn down a Nintendo exec's house.
Dragon's Dogma G indeed. Quite a dedicated base it has in Japan. Am enjoying a full replay myself, but I find it distasteful they did little to nothing to fix the broken ass quest system :/

Vita - rises!

WiiU - Iwata: "Nothing until July". Limbooooooooooo~
 
Considering the next real release isn't until July the idea that Wii U will have one of the greatest turnarounds ever to be able to sell 9 million this fiscal year is pretty suspect/



Why should it be? It's slightly more expensive than the XL
Lol why should it be competitive, now he gets it
 
Vita will likely to continue to get more niche games, but who is going to actually try with a substantial Vita project when Vita's western prospects are a nightmare right now. With games Vita can turnaround in Japan, but nothing is saving it in the west.

Lol why should it be competitive, now he gets it

How about actually explaining instead of talking to yourself?


It's the thing with the Vita.It was really in bad shape at first cause it was NOT marketed to regain the psp market. The thing you see happening now, with all those psp/vita games, is an actual shift, a generational transition. Now that it's engaged, vita is more safe. PSP stopped selling crazy, Vita is selling better, big psp games are also coming on Vita. You see, the dynamic is there now. Vita will have all the usual sellers on PSP. In 1-2 years from now, there won't even be a psp version anymore. And the market will be healthy enough for third parties to release original games. But i think SS or Gravity Daze were rentable already you know..

I'm sorry I'm really not seeing this amazing shift you're talking about. What was announced recently to make you think all this?
 

javac

Member
Code:
-------------------------------------------------------------
|    |   [B]Tomodachi Col.[/B]  | [B]TC: Shin Seikatsu[/B] |  [B]Difference[/B]  |
|    | [NDS] (2009/06/18)| [3DS] (2013/04/18)|              |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|
|Week|  Weekly |   LTD   |  Weekly |   LTD   |  TC - TC:SH  |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|
|  1 |  100.373|  100.373|  411.025|  411.025|       310.652|
|  2 |   70.117|  170.490|  151.741|  562.766|       392.276|
|  3 |   50.944|  221.434|         |         |              |  
|  4 |   52.698|  274.132|         |         |              | 
|  5 |   60.060|  334.492|         |         |              |  
|  6 |   71.175|  405.367|         |         |              |

That's pretty amazing!
 
I can't see Wii U recover permanently. At least Vita might be able to carve itself a niche in Japan, but Wii U? In Germany there's already stores not carrying Wii U, given Iwata's comments I don't think they have what it takes to pull Wii U out.

But I agree, if Vita manages to sell around 20k at least it might gets share of niche and smaller titles. Outside of Japan however? Destined to die I fear.

That really says a lot. The WiiU has a very massive hole to climb out of. The strength of Nintendo's IPs can still give it respectable portion of the NA market, but it's hard to see things turning around for the system in Japan and Europe. That 9m target is not happening.
 

ULTROS!

People seem to like me because I am polite and I am rarely late. I like to eat ice cream and I really enjoy a nice pair of slacks.
Why putting effort in developing something complex when portings, MH clones and otaku games sell just fine?

It's ok, Vita isn't going to steal 3DS gaemz anytime soon.
 

orioto

Good Art™
I'm sorry I'm really not seeing this amazing shift you're talking about. What was announced recently to make you think all this?

I just told you...
The shift shows clear signs. psp/vita games selling well on Vita for exemple. psp selling now less good than vita. Those things show that the transition exists. Many games probably started their dev late and will be announced till the end of the year. Sony is pushing, don't worry about that. They knew from the start the road would be long and slow. But now they are in the right direction at least. In Japan.
 

liger05

Member
Good week for the Vita. 20k is by no means great but its far better than where it was even though I feel people go overboard whenever its sales seem to go up just a tiny amount.

Creamsugar could confirm in the next NPD thread that the Vita sold 45k in the US I get the feeling people would go crazy over that even though it would still be a terrible number.
 
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