Media Create Sales: Week 18, 2014 (Apr 28 - May 04)

Mar 28, 2012
10,071
1
595
A lot of the brand strength is also specifically centered around Persona 4 and its characters as well, rather than the franchise as a whole.
So I'm just not expecting the level of growth that most of you guys are.
Not necessarily, the P3 have 3 movies out, are the main stars of P4A(despite it being a P4 spinoff) and people seem to be more interested in the P3 side of PQ.
 
Mar 9, 2012
3,567
0
445
Spain
What are you comparing ToS HD numbers to? I think it's a good thing for Zestiria that the "major" Tales release for 2013 was just ToS HD. Xillia 2 released late 2012, while Zestiria is going to release late 2014. That's 2 years or so between mothership titles.
I'm comparing it with retailers expectations. Just check the sellthrough. Symphonia HD is in the bomba bins in Japan now. It was supposed to sold less than a main entry but not that less.
That's why i believe there's a decline on Tales of.
 
Jan 25, 2012
22,624
0
0
Not necessarily, the P3 have 3 movies out, are the main stars of P4A(despite it being a P4 spinoff) and people seem to be more interested in the P3 side of PQ.
Persona 3 has always been really popular. I think the popularity of Persona 5 will come down to its characters and how similar it is to 3 and 4.
 
Jun 9, 2013
7,121
0
0
I'm gonna say Persona.
I think Tales of Zestiria will suffer from its yearly releases. We've already seen a decline for Xillia 2 and Symphonia HD compilation, and i'm sure first Xillia numbers are unreachable now.

In the other side, a main Persona game has been long awaited, and the fanbase is growing everyday. I can perfectly see the game reaching the 500k mark.
Seeing a decline in sales in a HD Collection is not worrying at all. And Tales of Xillia 2 was a direct sequel, and for some reason direct sequels sell less in those kind of franchises than new original titles.

I'd bet Zestiria to sell around 600k copies and Persona 5 aroudn 500k. Atlus will get more money in the end releasing enhanced ports on other platforms (like PS4, PSV or even 3DS succesor if Sony does not want to invest in another handheld) like they always do.
 
Jun 7, 2004
114,759
1
0
37
I don't know how realistic it is to expect Persona 5 to do 500k in Japan. It's not... impossible, but I don't think signs point to it being particularly likely. The PS3 is nearing the tail end of its lifespan, and while it hasn't significantly affected Japan as much as it has elsewhere, franchise sales are still mostly trending downwards. It's not just about "series fatigue".

500k is not an insignificant number, and I don't think Atlus has ever had a game sell 500k in their entire history as a company. If any game were to do it in the near future, I guess Persona 5 has the best chance of doing it. But it still seems more likely at this point that it'll sell what many popular franchise PS3 games are selling these days - 300-400k.

That would already be an increase over what P4 did, which was an increase over what P3 did. It would also put it at the range of what Persona 1 originally did on the PS1. That's comparable to Tales, where Xillia's surprisingly high sales of almost 700k still fell short of the series high which was achieved on PS1 (Tales of Destiny sold >800k), and also below the high on PS2 (Tales of Destiny 2 sold >700k).

The main takeaway here is that if we're looking at classic franchises which existed from the start of the Playstation hardware brand, odds are they achieved their sales height on the earliest platform. While sales can decline and recover over the years based on how a franchise is managed, it would be a huge hurdle to suddenly make it more popular that it could have been in the PS1 era, when so many more people were buying retail videogames.
 
Aug 12, 2009
19,861
0
860
how many copies p4a sold in the end?

I think this is one of those cases that judging prospects of this new game based on previous entries' debut in now distant past might be quite a bit off, platform decline considered still I think this is a wild card. Hard to pin it like that unlike usual releases, a lot has happened to this franchise since 2008 and now, seeing how the game actually is or is it any exciting for the audience should help predicting here though.
 
May 19, 2005
12,889
2
1,145
United Kingdom
Said this a million times before but SMT IV could have done some significant numbers on PS3, not saying that the 3DS numbers weren't good though.
What kind of significant numbers? It'd have probably done around the same numbers but would have been a much more expensive venture.

how many copies p4a sold in the end?
I think it did around ~200k iirc? Those were seriously good numbers for a fighting game in this generation so it's no surprise we're seeing a sequel.

As for Persona 5, I actually think 500k is very possible. Maybe even likely but it's hard to speculate properly when we don't have enough information on the game itself. I just think Persona is in a unique situation where it's actually been growing with time. Golden, for example has shipped over 350k copies and that was merely an enhanced port. They're clearly confident in the growth of the franchise too, announcing 3 spinoffs along with P5 itself. But yeah duckroll still makes a very good argument that's hard to counter.
 

L~A

Member
Jan 19, 2013
12,188
0
0
If Squeenix was clever, they'd have an enhanced port of Agito coming for traditional HH. It worked very well for Puzzle & Dragons, Level-5 is doing it with Wonder Flick... So yeah.

I really don't understand this mentality of 'everything mobile'. It's not like Final Fantasy was a brand new IP they're afraid to see bomb or something. Strange stategy.
 
If Squeenix was clever, they'd have an enhanced port of Agito coming for traditional HH. It worked very well for Puzzle & Dragons, Level-5 is doing it with Wonder Flick... So yeah.

I really don't understand this mentality of 'everything mobile'. It's not like Final Fantasy was a brand new IP they're afraid to see bomb or something. Strange stategy.
Shinra summarized this pretty well in the other thread:

Hmm, the house that Final Fantasy built is now worth only just over a quarter of the house that PazuDora built.

In the last quarter the latter generated 3x the net profit that the former generated in the last fiscal year.

:/
I imagine they want to spend as many resources as they can on mobile in order to get into a market they're late to the party on instead of worrying as much about additional revenue in a quickly declining market segment.
 
Jun 27, 2013
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0
I really don't understand this mentality of 'everything mobile'. It's not like Final Fantasy was a brand new IP they're afraid to see bomb or something. Strange stategy.
What I really don't understand is that they employing the same approach like they did in the past with mobile market aka focusing all effort on one platform. It's a very conservative attitude that could potentially backfired at them due to the over-crowded and high competition nature of the mobile market. Why couldn't they just manage their resources effectively to develop both for multiple platforms (1. Mobile 2. The rest)? It isn't like that mobile games absorb many resources to be made.
 
Apr 5, 2006
46,932
1
0
I think franchise fatigue could affect Persona 5 as well.
This year, there are 4 Persona games, all likely within 6 months of each other.

These are all radically different games, and only Persona 5 has any real significance, but I think so many games so close to each other could actually have a negative effect, rather than positive.
 

L~A

Member
Jan 19, 2013
12,188
0
0
I'll stop you there. :p

They see growth in mobile and a declining console market though, so it's really not surprising what they're focusing on.
I understand, but there's a difference between focusing and totally neglecting and ignoring potentially lucrative business opportunities.

An example : your restaurant has a super popular set, but the other sets are still moderately successful. Do you just scrap all the other sets and only sell the very popular one? Even if the less popular sets still bringing in a substantial amout of money?

The more I think of it, the more I'm convinced that Nintendo's strategy to make smartphones > Wii U conversion will be crucial for their next-gen handheld (which will share the same architecture, if I understood correctly what Iwata said).
 
Dec 7, 2005
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Said this a million times before but SMT IV could have done some significant numbers on PS3, not saying that the 3DS numbers weren't good though.
It'd also need a higher budget though. There's no way a PS3 game with the low res sprites of the 3ds game would have been as well received.
 
May 19, 2005
12,889
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1,145
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I think franchise fatigue could affect Persona 5 as well.
This year, there are 4 Persona games, all likely within 6 months of each other.

These are all radically different games, and only Persona 5 has any real significance, but I think so many games so close to each other could actually have a negative effect, rather than positive.
You think so? Both Golden and Arena did really well back in 2012 and they were only roughly a month apart - of course, they were radically different games too (on different platforms too, as is the case with the new spinoffs). I think the closeness of the releases is more likely to affect the spinoffs rather than P5 itself which will likely attract more than just the hardcore fans. It's the real deal.

It'd also need a higher budget though. There's no way a PS3 game with the low res sprites of the 3ds game would have been as well received.
Yup. I feel confident that Nocturne was also a significantly more expensive game to make than IV. That's probably why they opted to go 3DS in the first place, because at least that level of presentation would be more acceptable.
 
Apr 5, 2006
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Well, the way I see it, it could actually work out really well, or really poorly.
Not to mention there's also the next Persona 3 movie and Persona 4 Golden The Animation.

There's just a lot of Persona media so tightly packed together. Maybe too much.
 
Mar 28, 2012
10,071
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What kind of significant numbers? It'd have probably done around the same numbers but would have been a much more expensive venture.
In the west I think it would have done at least double, not sure if that would have made up for the budget though. I'd like to think that it could have reached 300k on PS3 in Japan as well.

It'd also need a higher budget though. There's no way a PS3 game with the low res sprites of the 3ds game would have been as well received.
Yeeah defiently, I'm not saying a PS3 version would have been more profitable but I'm saying it would have sold more. I don't think 3DS was a bad decision financially. It would have been interesting to see the numbers it put up in the west though. I think it could have done(at least) Ni No Kuni numbers.
 
Sep 17, 2010
5,457
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The more I think of it, the more I'm convinced that Nintendo's strategy to make smartphones > Wii U conversion will be crucial for their next-gen handheld (which will share the same architecture, if I understood correctly what Iwata said).
He didn't actually say they'd share an architecture, if I'm remembering the same article. He said they were going to unify portable and console development environments so that the process of making a game on either would be similar. It's probably analogous to how Xcode can target OS X or iOS even though they're not using the same OS or CPUs.
 
Nov 13, 2011
16,595
0
0
I understand, but there's a difference between focusing and totally neglecting and ignoring potentially lucrative business opportunities.

An example : your restaurant has a super popular set, but the other sets are still moderately successful. Do you just scrap all the other sets and only sell the very popular one? Even if the less popular sets still bringing in a substantial amout of money?

The more I think of it, the more I'm convinced that Nintendo's strategy to make smartphones > Wii U conversion will be crucial for their next-gen handheld (which will share the same architecture, if I understood correctly what Iwata said).
They aren't really scrapping the other sets though. They haven't even found their super-popular set. They just see the restaurant across the road with queues around the corner, and they want a piece of that action.
 
Apr 5, 2006
46,932
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Shin Megami Tensei IV did really well in the US, debuting as one of Atlus's highest ever, including PS2, and in line with many PS3 RPGs (such as Tales).
It was also the best selling Shin Megami Tensei game since PS2 (dunno how it did before), and 2nd best selling overall (since PS2) behind only Persona 4.

What makes you think it could've done better on PS3?
 

L~A

Member
Jan 19, 2013
12,188
0
0
What I really don't understand is that they employing the same approach like they did in the past with mobile market aka focusing all effort on one platform. It's a very conservative attitude that could potentially backfired at them due to the over-crowded and high competition nature of the mobile market. Why couldn't they just manage their resources effectively to develop both for multiple platforms (1. Mobile 2. The rest)? It isn't like that mobile games absorb many resources to be made.
He didn't actually say they'd share an architecture, if I'm remembering the same article. He said they were going to unify portable and console development environments so that the process of making a game on either would be similar. It's probably analogous to how Xcode can target OS X or iOS even though they're not using the same OS or CPUs.
That's what I mean by "sharing the architecture". If porting game from smartphones to Wii U is easy, it'll be even easier on the Wii W (better tools)... and since Wii W > 4DS porting will be super easy, then porting from smartphones to 4DS will also be super easy.

And if that's the case, then there'll be no reason for pulishers not to try the Premium route for iOS/Android games. It's worked for Puzzle & Dragons, and according to Iwata, there's several publishers who contacted Nintendo because they were interested in doing just that.

...

I'd actually love to learn more about that (which publishers? which games?)
 
May 19, 2005
12,889
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1,145
United Kingdom
In the west I think it would have done at least double, not sure if that would have made up for the budget though. I'd like to think that it could have reached 300k on PS3 in Japan as well.
Sorry but what's the rationale behind these? Nocturne didn't do that well, so why would a PS3 SMT game be any different? And why would it also do 300k in Japan when Nocturne failed to reach that figure (minus Maniacs edition)? What makes the PS3 a better selling SMT machine than a PS2?
 
They aren't really scrapping the other sets though. They haven't even found their super-popular set. They just see the restaurant across the road with queues around the corner, and they want a piece of that action.
I think if I were to make a food comparison with Square Enix it would basically be that Square Enix is a hamburger fast food place, but the country they're in is rapidly converting to Hinduism. There is still a strong demand for hamburgers abroad, but people notably prefer the hamburgers made by everyone else.

However, chicken patties, breakfast meals, and salads are taking off like mad and Square Enix is heavily investing in getting into those markets to the point that focusing on their hamburger business is pretty low priority now when it comes to determining where resources go.

Basically Square Enix is just putting out what they feel matters of their main properties (hence why we're getting FFXV, KH3, and DQ11) and then focusing almost everything else on mobile, MMOs, online games for Asia, Western console titles, and Western f2p games.
 
Mar 28, 2012
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Sorry but what's the rationale behind these? Nocturne didn't do that well, so why would a PS3 SMT game be any different? And why would it also do 300k in Japan when Nocturne failed to reach that figure (minus Maniacs edition)? What makes the PS3 a better selling SMT machine than a PS2?
I think in today's climate Nocturne would have sold significantly more in the west. That's just my opinion though, I could certainly be wrong. I think the lack of JRPGS on console in today's climate is getting games that would have been basically ignored in the PS2 era, a lot of attention. There is no way in hell Ni No Kuni would have gotten the attention it got and put up the numbers it did(in the west) in the PS2 era. Symphonia did decently but Tales as a whole is a lot more popular now than it was back then(although they are finally starting to bring there games over now). A SMT IV on the PS3 with a decent budget? Would have been crazy in the west(imo of course)
 
May 5, 2014
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What kind of significant numbers? It'd have probably done around the same numbers but would have been a much more expensive venture.


I think it did around ~200k iirc? Those were seriously good numbers for a fighting game in this generation so it's no surprise we're seeing a sequel.

As for Persona 5, I actually think 500k is very possible. Maybe even likely but it's hard to speculate properly when we don't have enough information on the game itself. I just think Persona is in a unique situation where it's actually been growing with time. Golden, for example has shipped over 350k copies and that was merely an enhanced port. They're clearly confident in the growth of the franchise too, announcing 3 spinoffs along with P5 itself. But yeah duckroll still makes a very good argument that's hard to counter.
Wait, how is that a good number for fighting games this generation?

I think in today's climate Nocturne would have sold significantly more in the west. That's just my opinion though, I could certainly be wrong. I think the lack of JRPGS on console in today's climate is getting games that would have been basically ignored in the PS2 era, a lot of attention. There is no way in hell Ni No Kuni would have gotten the attention it got and put up the numbers it did(in the west) in the PS2 era. Symphonia did decently but Tales as a whole is a lot more popular now than it was back then(although they are finally starting to bring there games over now). A SMT IV on the PS3 with a decent budget? Would have been crazy in the west(imo of course)
Not in the west. Not sure there will ever be another Symphonia at this rate. Vesperia was a good enough game for it and tanked (in comparison) and most games have sold around the same or less (in the west) since.
 

L~A

Member
Jan 19, 2013
12,188
0
0
And now I'm hungry...
L~A : All according to Keikaku.* (laughs).

* Keikaku means plan, btw.

But yeah, coming back to the "publishers interested in porting their smartphone titles to the 3DS", I wonder if there's any big players in there (Squeenix, Namco-Bandai, etc..).
 
Mar 28, 2012
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Wait, how is that a good number for fighting games this generation?



Not in the west. Not sure there will ever be another Symphonia at this rate. Vesperia was a good enough game for it and tanked (in comparison) and most games have sold around the same or less (in the west) since.
Really? I don't remember hearing shit about tales in the PS2 days. It got a lot of hype for being basically the only good JRPG on GC but Tales as a whole? Nobody cared(as far as I can tell).
 
Jul 28, 2012
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Yup can't wait to see how well Persona 5 does.

P4G is around 300k iirc.

I having a feeling that P5 might become the best selling persona game to date i.e 400k in Japan. I think its guaranteed to become the best selling Persona game due to western sales. Its actually where I think P5 will grow the most.

We saw with P4G how more of its sales actually came from the West (400k vs 300k).

Persona 5 could even be a million seller and Atlus' best selling game to date. I'm keen to see how the movie performs as well. Heard from a couple of friends that the 1st movie was great; reignites nostalgia in many scenes but also changes the focus of the story on a different theme....one that the player may not realise when playing the games.

Its nice to see a franchise grow, especially one that imo deserves it. Persona stands there at the top as some of the greatest rpgs in gaming and the OST......I can listen to it forever.
 
Here's what Square Enix said made money for them this quarter as well:

Square Enix said:
 Digital Entertainment
The Digital Entertainment segment plans, develops, distributes and operates digital entertainment content
primarily in the form of games. Digital entertainment content is offered to meet customer lifestyles across a
variety of usage environments such as consumer game consoles (including handheld game machines),
personal computers and smart devices.

In the consolidated fiscal year under review, the sales of game console software titles, such as “FINAL
FANTASY X/X-2 HD Remaster
,” “Thief” (not in Japan yet), and “TOMB RAIDER: DEFINITIVE EDITION,”
recorded favorable sales. In addition, in the area of content for smart devices and PC browsers,
“SENGOKU IXA,” a PC browser game, has been showing steady performance, and “Kaku-San-Sei Million
Arthur
,” a game for smartphones, has become an instant hit in Taiwan and mainland China, following Korea,
while its platform has expanded to include the PlayStation Vita. “DRAGON QUEST MONSTERS
SUPER LIGHT
,” a game for smartphones released in January 2014 (Japan only), made an encouraging
start.

The software sales and operation of “FINAL FANTASY XIV: A REALM REBORN,” a massively
multiplayer online role-playing game released in August 2013, have been making favorable progress.
Net sales and operating income in the Digital Entertainment segment totaled ¥94,571 million (an increase of
5.7% from the prior fiscal year) and ¥10,709 million (operating income of ¥44 million in the prior fiscal year),
respectively.
We have two mobile games, a browser game, an Eidos console game, an Eidos port, and MMO, and a Square Enix Japan port.

Square Enix Japan's new console game is not listed as favorable, and they left off Square Enix Japan's Dragon Quest Monsters on 3DS as well.

Bravely Default's Western release is also missing, though published by Nintendo, so there's some obfuscation there. Feel free to view it either way.
 
May 5, 2014
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Really? I don't remember hearing shit about tales in the PS2 days. It got a lot of hype for being basically the only good JRPG on GC but Tales as a whole? Nobody cared(as far as I can tell).
A couple news papers said it would brush the GC past the PS2 and Xbox so yeah. Considering how much the GC version sold. Although I know we don't have official numbers (based on location), it has been said many times the majority of the 1+ million Symphonia sales were from NA.
 
Jun 9, 2013
7,121
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I think in today's climate Nocturne would have sold significantly more in the west. That's just my opinion though, I could certainly be wrong. I think the lack of JRPGS on console in today's climate is getting games that would have been basically ignored in the PS2 era, a lot of attention. There is no way in hell Ni No Kuni would have gotten the attention it got and put up the numbers it did(in the west) in the PS2 era. Symphonia did decently but Tales as a whole is a lot more popular now than it was back then(although they are finally starting to bring there games over now). A SMT IV on the PS3 with a decent budget? Would have been crazy in the west(imo of course)
Ni no Kuni was Ghibli's JRPG. That has more to do with its sales than the lack of jrpgs on thr PS3 imo.
 
Mar 28, 2012
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Was thief profitable?
A couple news papers said it would brush the GC past the PS2 and Xbox so yeah. Considering how much the GC version sold. Although I know we don't have official numbers (based on location), it has been said many times the majority of the 1+ million Symphonia sales were from NA.
Yeah, I knew it was the best selling tales game but I don't think it affected Tales as awhole. It came in the right place at the right time imo. GC needed a RPG.
Ni no Kuni was Ghibli's JRPG. That has more to do with its sales than the lack of jrpgs on thr PS3 imo.
Ghibli was definitely a factor, I still don't think it would have sold as much and reviewed as well(game was ass).
 
May 19, 2005
12,889
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United Kingdom
Wait, how is that a good number for fighting games this generation.
Because they are significantly more numbers than the average BlazBlue game which the game's framework is based on and we have a generation where once heavy hitters like Tekken, Dead or Alive and Soul Calibur struggle to sell 200k. Street Fighter is really the only real major success story for traditional fighters (and much of that success comes from the West anyway).

I think in today's climate Nocturne would have sold significantly more in the west. That's just my opinion though, I could certainly be wrong. I think the lack of JRPGS on console in today's climate is getting games that would have been basically ignored in the PS2 era, a lot of attention. There is no way in hell Ni No Kuni would have gotten the attention it got and put up the numbers it did(in the west) in the PS2 era. Symphonia did decently but Tales as a whole is a lot more popular now than it was back then(although they are finally starting to bring there games over now). A SMT IV on the PS3 with a decent budget? Would have been crazy in the west(imo of course)
Well we don't know as per Ni No Kuni since we have no precedence for a Studio Ghibli RPG. Studio Ghibli certainly has a presence in the west that could have worked to its favour but we just don't know how that game would have fared on PS2. As far as traditional RPGs go, it is really charming and accessible. This does not translate to big success for SMT, though, which couldn't be a more different type of experience. There are always going to be individual success stories here and there: even on the 3DS we saw it with Fire Emblem and Bravely Default, but that's not enough reason to extrapolate those sales as an argument in favour of a relatively obscure franchise like mainline SMT. But I can't say you are wrong since we'll never know. I just know that the last SMT game with a decent budget sold around 70k in the US :p

As far as Tales is concerned, Symphonia GC is still by far the most successful entry in the franchise in the west and really was the anomaly when we look at the big picture. There's been growth sure, but only really because Namco is bothering to localise more Tales games. The individual entries still mostly do <200k in the US. Symphonia GC did >400k.
 
Was thief profitable?
Doubtful, but it sold well enough relative to their expectations that they listed it.

New IPs as loss leaders are pretty common, and being happy with a trainwreck making money (and thus lowering the overall loss) is sometimes seen positively too, especially if they think they can make a sequel that does better eventually.

Whether or not the franchise has been canned is not 100% clear, but Eidos Montreal does have a second console game in development, and Square Enix hates new IP, so I'm guessing it's probably Thief 5.
 

L~A

Member
Jan 19, 2013
12,188
0
0
Here's what Square Enix said made money for them this quarter as well:



We have two mobile games, a browser game, an Eidos console game, an Eidos port, and MMO, and a Square Enix Japan port.

Square Enix Japan's new console game is not listed as favorable, and they left off Square Enix Japan's Dragon Quest Monsters on 3DS as well.

Bravely Default's Western release is also missing, though published by Nintendo, so there's some obfuscation there. Feel free to view it either way.
Kinda weird for Bravely Default, what with all the drama that followed ("Yeah, we saw the errors of our way, we ask players for their forgiveness in us not understanding they liked JRPG too!").

And for DQXI... that's problably because it won't be coming out before FY2015. We haven't heard any rumours or anything about it yet, except that comment from the series creator (stating the super obvious). Expecting an announcement before TGS.
 
Mar 28, 2012
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Doubtful, but it sold well enough relative to their expectations that they listed it.

New IPs as loss leaders are pretty common, and being happy with a trainwreck making money (and thus lowering the overall loss) is sometimes seen positively too, especially if they think they can make a sequel that does better eventually.

Whether or not the franchise has been canned is not 100% clear, but Eidos Montreal does have a second console game in development, and Square Enix hates new IP, so I'm guessing it's probably Thief 5.
They made a dumb decision by making it overly designed, dishonored clone, mainstream trash. I actually think the game would sold better if it was more similar to the old thief games(I feel the same about Splinter Cell). We don't have to many true stealth games, it could have been something special. Will we get Dues EX early next year?
 
Jul 28, 2012
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Tales of Xillia crossed the 1 million mark 7 months ago. So thats 230k sales abroad. I'm sure that numbers gone up since its been in quite a few sales.

I think the biggest surprise hit for jrpgs this gen (other than Demons/Dark Souls but lets not get into that conversation again) was Ni No Kuni. I mean it sold 700k on the PS3 in the West, especially crazy in that it was a new IP.
 
Mar 28, 2012
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Tales of Xillia crossed the 1 million mark 7 months ago. So thats 230k sales abroad. I'm sure that numbers gone up since its been in quite a few sales.

I think the biggest surprise hit for jrpgs this gen (other than Demons/Dark Souls but lets not get into that conversation again) was Ni No Kuni. I mean it sold 700k on the PS3 in the West, especially crazy in that it was a new IP.
Persona could probably do those numbers with a PS4 port.