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[NeonZ]

The freshness effect ended? Considering how huge usually musou game, i can see many ended getting bored before actually finishing the game so they are not bothering to get the second one.

I can even picture Hyrule Warriors 2 underperforming in the future here.^~^

I wonder if they could reverse that general trend by implementing actual 3d overworld transversal into a Hyrule Warriors 2. That could make it stand out a lot from its predecessor and would make it seemingly closer to mainline Zelda even if it'd still be missing actual dungeons. Koei seems to be starting to try open world games, and this wouldn't even need such a big scale. Something comparable with Twilight Princess' overworld would already be fairly impressive for a game like this.

 

[hiska-kun]

Even with NX loosing 2016 there are still possibilities this will be the first year after a very long time with Y-O-Y increase. Software is guaranteed to be up, hardware performance was a surprise last December, maybe something happens again this year and surpirises again.

I was wondering, if Software is guarateed to be up, 3DS software is expected to increase Y-O-Y too, then?

 

[L~A]

I was guessing based on their annual report mentioning Wii U being one of the systems they're still actively developing for this year (along with both 3DS and NX), but that could very well be just for the additional HW dlc.

Ah right, that's what I wanted to address in my post in the first place.

Everything gets a PS4 LE

They really hit the jackpot with those HDD bay covers, or whatever they're called.

I was wondering, if Software is guarateed to be up, 3DS software is expected to increase Y-O-Y too, then?

3DS is still too big for it not to be required for YoY increase.

Just looking at the big titles, 2016 is already sigifnicantly better (especially since I left out smaller titles like Yokai Sangokushi (already 500k), or unconfirmed titles like MHXG).

2016: Pokémon SM, YW3
2015: YWB, MHX

 

[lherre]

Only a thing for Vena and test_account ... Neo basically has the specs "rumored" (the press just copied the sony's docs so ...).

The architecture is basically the same, so the efforts to run your games on it are basically "zero" if they work on "vanilla" PS4. But obviously there will be optimizations too on that front.

 

[DarkLordMalik]

Only a thing for Vena and test_account ... Neo basically has the specs "rumored" (the press just copied the sony's docs so ...).

The architecture is basically the same, so the efforts to run your games on it are basically "zero" if they work on "vanilla" PS4. But obviously there will be optimizations too on that front.

So you are saying there won't be much need to certify or Q/A a Neo release? Sounds good.

 

[Celine]

Yeah, with both YW3 and Pokémon SM this year, not to mention the rest of the 3DS line-up and the big PS4 titles, Software should be up.

Hardware will most likely depend on two things: how the 3DS will hold up, and how strong the impact of the big PS4 titles on PS4 sales.

PSV isn't going anywhere, PS3 is pretty much retired now, and XB1... well.

The problem comes from the Wii U. After May 28th, there's the increased baseline (+ strong holiday sales) from Splatoon for 2015. But for 2016, not only there's literally no games until October, but there's a grand total of 2 announced retail games for the rest of the year (3 if you count MN9). Not to mention Nintendo not interested in producing more units in order to meet the already low demand, and the NX out in March (with proper reveal coming out this year)...

Whatever happens, Wii U sales will be down significantly this year (they were already bound to be down, but factors above only make things worse). So for HW to be up YoY it'll be up to the 3DS and the PS4. Since there's no successor this year, 3DS sales should remain good.

Edit: as for the "surprise"... lots of demand for PSVR?

Yeah, for HW to be up YOY it all depend if 3DS and PS4 (but especially PS4 because it is not assured 3DS will be up YOY) can counter WiiU, Vita, PS3 decline.
Personally I think this year will continue the trend of down YOY for HW now that we know NX won't be released.

 

[lherre]

So you are saying there won't be much need to certify or Q/A a Neo release? Sounds good.

Q/A will always be there, but it won't be very different from PS4 Q/A.

Remind that Neo is mainly focused for VR things.

 

[DarkLordMalik]

Q/A will always be there, but it won't be very different from PS4 Q/A.

Remind that Neo is mainly focused for VR things.

I hope aside from VR, some developers go out of their way to patch some of their games to run at 60 fps or atleast full 1080p. The later seems more probable.

 

[lherre]

I hope aside from VR, some developers go out of their way to patch some of their games to run at 60 fps or atleast full 1080p. The later seems more probable.

And more

 

[test_account]

My initial "Neo mode" stuff comes from rumors back when Osiris made his blow-out thread. But its nothing more than that until we hear more on it. I can try to dig up the actual source of that rumor but I don't have it off-hand, but I know its been floating around for some time. Heck, its even floating around in some of the NX discussion threads.

Back then we also had the "games running on PS4 will have performance sacrifices" for games made more to favor Neo. But what any of that means is going to be unknown until we see more from Sony themselves.

I understand. I dont think that they can force technical things to be done other than resolution, but that havnt seemed to be much of a problem so far. But we'll see what happends.

About sacrifices, i think that is just referring to the difference between the two systems in terms of hardware power. If they are going to utilize the more powerful one, the weaker one cant run it just as good.

Only a thing for Vena and test_account ... Neo basically has the specs "rumored" (the press just copied the sony's docs so ...).

The architecture is basically the same, so the efforts to run your games on it are basically "zero" if they work on "vanilla" PS4. But obviously there will be optimizations too on that front.

I see. That sounds good =)

 

[Chris1964]

I was wondering, if Software is guarateed to be up, 3DS software is expected to increase Y-O-Y too, then?

Things are even better for 3DS now from what was known 2 months ago.

3DS sold ~18m of software in 2015 and there were 28 games that topped 100k according to Famitsu

{2015.11.28} Monster Hunter Generations - 2.441.977
{2015.07.11} Yo-Kai Watch Busters: Red Cat Team / White Dog Squad - 1.965.202
{2015.07.30} Animal Crossing: Happy Home Designer - 1.282.880
{2015.08.27} Dragon Quest VIII: Journey of the Cursed King - 864.865
{2015.12.17} Monster Strike - 636.709
{2014.12.13} Yo-kai Watch 2: Shin Uchi - 625.223 / 2.632.550
{2015.06.11} Rhythm Heaven Megamix - 607.343
{2015.06.25} Fire Emblem Fates: Birthright / Conquest - 538.669
{2014.11.21} Pokemon Omega Ruby / Alpha Sapphire - 457.879 / 2.922.729
{2015.02.14} The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask 3D - 448.258
{2014.09.13} Super Smash Bros. for Nintendo 3DS - 347.455 / 2.413.477
{2015.04.29} Puzzle & Dragons: Super Mario Bros. Edition - 325.611
{2015.09.17} Pokemon Super Mystery Dungeon - 290.190
{2015.11.05} Disney Magic World 2 - 247.617
{2015.04.16} Style Savvy 2: Fashion Forward - 218.490
{2012.11.08} Animal Crossing: New Leaf - 195.655 / 4.445.087
{2015.07.09} Great Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney - Naruhodou Ryuunosuke no Bouken - 191.237
{2014.10.11} Monster Hunter 4 Ultimate - 189.057 / 2.570.234
{2015.12.03} Mario & Luigi: Paper Jam - 174.674
{2015.04.23} Bravely Second: End Layer - 167.489
{2015.06.11} Dragon Ball Z: Extreme Butoden - 150.989
{2015.10.22} The Legend of Zelda: TriForce Heroes - 141.525
{2011.12.01} Mario Kart 7 - 137.419 / 2.492.693
{2015.03.26} Theatrhythm Dragon Quest - 123.778
{2015.08.20} Super Robot Wars BX - 122.168
{2014.07.10} Yo-kai Watch 2: Ganso / Honke - 119.680 / 3.169.858
{2015.09.10} Monster Hunter Diary: Poka Poka Airu Village DX - 112.317
{2015.03.12} Ansatsu Kyoushitsu: Korosensei Daihouimou!! - 106.265

Or according to release date

{2011.12.01} Mario Kart 7 - 137.419 / 2.492.693
{2012.11.08} Animal Crossing: New Leaf - 195.655 / 4.445.087
{2014.07.10} Yo-kai Watch 2: Ganso / Honke - 119.680 / 3.169.858
{2014.09.13} Super Smash Bros. for Nintendo 3DS - 347.455 / 2.413.477
{2014.10.11} Monster Hunter 4 Ultimate - 189.057 / 2.570.234
{2014.11.21} Pokemon Omega Ruby / Alpha Sapphire - 457.879 / 2.922.729
{2014.12.13} Yo-kai Watch 2: Shin Uchi - 625.223 / 2.632.550
{2015.02.14} The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask 3D - 448.258
{2015.03.12} Ansatsu Kyoushitsu: Korosensei Daihouimou!! - 106.265
{2015.03.26} Theatrhythm Dragon Quest - 123.778
{2015.04.16} Style Savvy 2: Fashion Forward - 218.490
{2015.04.23} Bravely Second: End Layer - 167.489
{2015.04.29} Puzzle & Dragons: Super Mario Bros. Edition - 325.611
{2015.06.11} Rhythm Heaven Megamix - 607.343
{2015.06.11} Dragon Ball Z: Extreme Butoden - 150.989
{2015.06.25} Fire Emblem Fates: Birthright / Conquest - 538.669
{2015.07.09} Great Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney - Naruhodou Ryuunosuke no Bouken - 191.237
{2015.07.11} Yo-Kai Watch Busters: Red Cat Team / White Dog Squad - 1.965.202
{2015.07.30} Animal Crossing: Happy Home Designer - 1.282.880
{2015.08.20} Super Robot Wars BX - 122.168
{2015.08.27} Dragon Quest VIII: Journey of the Cursed King - 864.865
{2015.09.10} Monster Hunter Diary: Poka Poka Airu Village DX - 112.317
{2015.09.17} Pokemon Super Mystery Dungeon - 290.190
{2015.10.22} The Legend of Zelda: TriForce Heroes - 141.525
{2015.11.05} Disney Magic World 2 - 247.617
{2015.11.28} Monster Hunter Generations - 2.441.977
{2015.12.03} Mario & Luigi: Paper Jam - 174.674
{2015.12.17} Monster Strike - 636.709


These 28 games sold 13.230.621 (74% of total sales). If games that were released the years before are remored there are 21 games remaining that sold 11.158.253 (62% of total sales).
The obvious known 2016 games that will sell more than 100k are these

{2016.01.21} Hyrule Warriors Legends
{2016.02.10} Shin Megami Tensei IV: Final
{2016.02.18} Mario & Sonic at the Rio 2016 Olympic Games
{2016.03.24} Dragon Quest Monsters: Joker 3
{2016.04.02} Yo-Kai Romance of the Three Kingdoms
{2016.04.28} Kirby: Planet Robobot
{2016.06.09} Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney 6
{2016.06.16} Taiko no Tatsujin: Don Don! Mystery Adventure
{2016.07.28} Puzzle & Dragons X
{2016.08.04} Etrian Odyssey V
{16 Summer} Monster Hunter Stories
{16 Summer} Yo-kai Watch 3
{16 Holidays} Pokemon Sun / Moon

In theory 2016 3DS sw won't see a drop, or at least a drastic drop, comparing to 2015.

 

[hiska-kun]

3DS is still too big for it not to be required for YoY increase.

Just looking at the big titles, 2016 is already sigifnicantly better (especially since I left out smaller titles like Yokai Sangokushi (already 500k), or unconfirmed titles like MHXG).

2016: Pokémon SM, YW3
2015: YWB, MHX

Yes, 2016 big titles are better than 2015, but this year there's an obvious lack of mid-tier titles.

In 2015, 3DS sold 18,438,698 software according to Media Create.

Now, according to Nintendo (and MC again), until week 15, 2016 software sales of 3DS had been slower than the previous year.

Of course, the second half of the year line-up will determinate everything. But for the moment I am not expecting anything new. Dragon Quest XI probably won't launch this year, and we still don't know if MHXG will, neither.
At the moment we're only sure about YW3 and PKM SM. Since I don't think we can consider MHStories as a big title anymore after the lack of million expectation from Capcom.

 

[L~A]

Yes, 2016 big titles are better than 2015, but this year there's an obvious lack of mid-tier titles.

Is there now? Maybe in Q1, but the rest of the year definitely looks better.

Chris's list shows there's some pretty good mid-tier games coming between Q2 and the end of the year. It's even missing games like Culdcept Revolt, Dragon Ball Fusions, the new One Piece game, the new Harvest Moon game in June, and whatever will be announced this Summer.

As Chris said, there really shouldn't be any major drop for 3DS SW this year.

By the way, by "3DS is still too big for it not to be required for YoY increase.", I didn't mean I expected 3DS SW to be up, just that it still has too much weight in global SW sales, so if 3DS SW sales drop sharply this year, global SW sales won't be up YoY.

 

[Vena]

Only a thing for Vena and test_account ... Neo basically has the specs "rumored" (the press just copied the sony's docs so ...).

The architecture is basically the same, so the efforts to run your games on it are basically "zero" if they work on "vanilla" PS4. But obviously there will be optimizations too on that front.

So it remains a Jaguar APU system with GCN 1.2? Because when I talk arch I don't mean x86.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

Total 2016 hardware sales will be down YOY, easy.

 

[hiska-kun]

Is there now? Maybe in Q1, but the rest of the year definitely looks better.

Chris's list shows there's some pretty good mid-tier games coming between Q2 and the end of the year. It's even missing games like Culdcept Revolt, Dragon Ball Fusions, the new One Piece game, the new Harvest Moon game in June, and whatever will be announced this Summer.

As Chris said, there really shouldn't be any major drop for 3DS SW this year.

By the way, by "3DS is still too big for it not to be required for YoY increase.", I didn't mean I expected 3DS SW to be up, just that it still has too much weight in global SW sales, so if 3DS SW sales drop sharply this year, global SW sales won't be up YoY.

One other thing I want to point is that all 3DS games have underperformed this year so far. For the upcoming releases, except AA6, EOV and Pokemon, I don't expect any of them selling better than past entries.

 

[casiopao]

One other thing I want to point is that all 3DS games have underperformed this year so far. For the upcoming releases, except AA6, EOV and Pokemon, I don't expect any of them selling better than past entries.

I don't think new HM will drop in sales though?

 

[Chris1964]

It doesn't play role if some 3DS games saw drops from previous entries. The comparison is with 2015 and there 2016 is stronger at variety and volume. Only top 2, Pokemon and Yokai-Watch should clear 7m from the 18 of last year.

 

[Nirolak]

I'm not sure how many of the posters involved in the original discussion still exist on GAF, but as a follow-up to the discussion around six months back, Setsuna is digital only, and priced at $40 in the US: http://store.steampowered.com/app/441830/

It's a bit higher than I was thinking they'd go ($20-$30).

 

[Fdkn]

As seen in the other thread, time will tell but $40 seems too much for what's expected of that game.

 

[Nirolak]

Yeah, that's higher than I would have went, even if they were trying to adjust for Steam/PSN sales.

$30 would be more appropriate in that scenario.

My guess is they're expecting a pretty limited audience that will buy it at a higher price point anyway.

 

[RandyRaceCar]

As you can see, the reason for the Xbox One Increase is because of the fast sell outs of Quantum Break Stock, of course, they are still trying to keep up with the demand, moving some units from AUstralia to Japan, which is hwy the numbers are up, of course those sold out quick, but at least the enxt shipment is coming in*

*

Spoiler

Numbers bazed on VG∁hartz, j/k

 

[Vena]

I'm not sure how many of the posters involved in the original discussion still exist on GAF, but as a follow-up to the discussion around six months back, Setsuna is digital only, and priced at $40 in the US: http://store.steampowered.com/app/441830/

It's a bit higher than I was thinking they'd go ($20-$30).

I have not dissolved into the aether just yet (though then again I don't remember how involved I was in this way back when), but I do think that price is too much. They're seemingly banking on or admitting to the fact that the appeal is narrow. because that sort of price, digital only, isn't going to win you a lot of casual purchases and may even turn off some would-be buyers had it been retail at 40$. The "fans" will buy it, specifically SE fans or fans of niche jRPGs, but there's a silent admission that... probably no one else will. Either there will be little to no marketing for it (seemingly some E3 lipservice), SE has no faith in it to push it, or Sony has no faith/interest in it to help it, etc.

I would have expected 20-30$ but if you're expected sales are "a given" so to speak, and you have no expectations outside of that, you can recoup more by simply charging a "tax". Its not even anything to write home about, so there's also not much hope for "word of mouth" to help it long term (unlike, say, the much better game of Digimon more recently that was helped by WoM). This is short term, most profitable turn-over and then be done with it.

I think a year ago when this was announced they had other expectations before more of their titles hit the west... and then got hit right back down again.

 

[Sandfox]

I'm not sure how many of the posters involved in the original discussion still exist on GAF, but as a follow-up to the discussion around six months back, Setsuna is digital only, and priced at $40 in the US: http://store.steampowered.com/app/441830/

It's a bit higher than I was thinking they'd go ($20-$30).

Based on what I've heard about the game that is far too much. I don't really get why SE charges so much for their products on Steam.

 

[hiska-kun]

Minecraft Wii U Edition at retail in June 23th.

https://topics.nintendo.co.jp/c/article/7be4e4bc-1d7b-11e6-8360-063b7ac45a6d.html

Edit: published by Microsoft

 

[random25]

So this means Minecraft Wii U edition is doing well?

 

[Ōkami]

That's two Wii U games on the same day, Minecraft comes out alongside Mario & Sonic.

Now the only unschedule Wii U retail release for 2016 is Paper Mario.

That's 8 games for the whole year.

On another note, Microsoft's best selling game in Japan is just above 200k and Minecraft is already over 150k on Wii U.

So Microsoft's best selling title in Japan will be a Wii U title.

 

[Vena]

That's two Wii U games on the same day, Minecraft comes out alongside Mario & Sonic.

Now the only unschedule Wii U retail release for 2016 is Paper Mario.

That's 8 games for the whole year.

On another note, Microsoft's best selling game in Japan is just above 200k and Minecraft is already over 150k on Wii U.

So Microsoft's best selling title in Japan will be a Wii U title.

Microsoft and Nintendo to partner to save Japan!

 

[horuhe]

So Microsoft's best selling title in Japan will be a Wii U title.

If someone had said this two years ago, folks would have thought he was completely insane.

That and One not even hitting 80k LTD.

 

[Arzehn]

Any Overwatch retail musings? Seems popular on nico and amazon.

 

[Beautiful Ninja]

Any Overwatch retail musings? Seems popular on nico and amazon.

The one really interesting I see on Amazon so far is that the retail PC version is actually selling well enough to be in the top 5. At one point it was selling even ahead of the XB1 version on the Amazon charts.

Amazon and Best Buy both have 20% off Origins edition since there was a physical PC edition. I doubt that it'll be a huge amount of overall sales, but this will probably be far and away the most notable sales of a PC title in a long time at retail.

 

[shaowebb]

So roughly half the sales are Nintendo in the Top 30 or Top 50 lists posted.

Install based be damned, they got the software game down solid. 3ds is a beast and Wii U is all quality it seems. Poor X1.

 

[PdotMichael]

About the WiiU. Are people just not interested anymore or are we still running the lack of WiiU explenation?

 

[GhostTrick]

About the WiiU. Are people just not interested anymore or are we still running the lack of WiiU explenation?

Wii U is dead.

As for explanations, I'd say most people are just not interested in the Japanese market considering how in the years, there are less posts in these threads and how considering everything but 3DS is dead, while this one is slowly dying.

 

[Beautiful Ninja]

About the WiiU. Are people just not interested anymore or are we still running the lack of WiiU explenation?

Nintendo has officially announced their next console. At this point everyone is just gonna wait and see if that has BC or if everything worthwhile ends up getting NX ports.

 

[PreyingShark]

About the WiiU. Are people just not interested anymore or are we still running the lack of WiiU explenation?

I think that people were buying Wii U's to play their new copies of Splatoon. Now that a lot fewer copies of Splatoon are being sold, it follows that a lot fewer Wii U's are being sold.

 

[gtj1092]

So roughly half the sales are Nintendo in the Top 30 or Top 50 lists posted.

Install based be damned, they got the software game down solid. 3ds is a beast and Wii U is all quality it seems. Poor X1.

But the 3DS has by far the largest install base.

 

[L~A]

Minecraft Wii U Edition at retail in June 23th.

https://topics.nintendo.co.jp/c/article/7be4e4bc-1d7b-11e6-8360-063b7ac45a6d.html

Edit: published by Microsoft

That's the 5th retail Wii U game for the rest of the year.

June 21st: Mighty No. 9
June 23rd: Mario & Sonic at the Rio 2016 Olympics, Minecraft
October 13th: LEGO Star Wars: The Force Awakens
???: Paper Mario: Colour Splash

 

[Chris1964]

What I could get from the leaks is Uncharted at 16k and My Hero Academia had a 18% hidden number that was removed a few minutes later (maybe sellthrough).

 

[MacTag]

I think that people were buying Wii U's to play their new copies of Splatoon. Now that a lot fewer copies of Splatoon are being sold, it follows that a lot fewer Wii U's are being sold.

That's circular logic though. Splatoon dropped way back due to the supply constraints and not just recently, plus Wii U's been selling the same ~3-4k for months now. It's still selling out presumably.

 

[L~A]

Maybe horuhe could shine some light on the stock situation? I don't think the shortages ever ended (though Nintendo did ship more units for the GW). Given the super low shipment target for the FY, it's clear they're not really interested in shipping more than they are right now.

***

Also, about Star Fox Zero...

(used copies)

https://twitter.com/DCharlieJP/status/735433460743950337

 

[hiska-kun]

In Yodobashi Camera Ueno, they have a notice that Wii U is out of stock, but you can pre-order and they will recieve it the following day. I don't know if this is extended to other chains. I wonder if that's Nintendo's plan from now.
No Wii U on stores, if you want one, order it.

 

[Herb Alpert]

In Yodobashi Camera Ueno, they have a notice that Wii U is out of stock, but you can pre-order and they will recieve it the following day. I don't know if this is extended to other chains. I wonder if that's Nintendo's plan from now.
No Wii U on stores, if you want one, order it.

Wiiu Last year will be something

 

[dno_1966]

It's just beyond me, limiting WiiU and therefore software sales like this is crazy.

 

[L~A]

In Yodobashi Camera Ueno, they have a notice that Wii U is out of stock, but you can pre-order and they will recieve it the following day. I don't know if this is extended to other chains. I wonder if that's Nintendo's plan from now.
No Wii U on stores, if you want one, order it.

That would confirm my suspicions/theories. Super low shipment target + this = they want to manufacture and ship as little Wii U as possible, so that they don't have to deal with unsold units once retailers drop the Wii U (which will happen pretty much at launch, if not before for some stores).

 

[sense]

Wii U is dead.

As for explanations, I'd say most people are just not interested in the Japanese market considering how in the years, there are less posts in these threads and how considering everything but 3DS is dead, while this one is slowly dying.

I wouldn't call the ps4 dead since it has been holding up decent since the price drop last year but I am sure we both have different interpretations of the word "dead"

 

[GhostTrick]

I wouldn't call the ps4 dead since it has been holding up decent since the price drop last year but I am sure we both have different interpretations of the word "dead"

It's been like what, more than 2 years already ? And it's below 3 millions and is in the 20k region per week. That's pretty low but that's because people got used to low sales in Japan.

 

[L~A]

Media Create:

PS4 18,430
New3DS LL 12,051
Vita 10,954
Wii U 4,109
New3DS 2,552
PS3 1,001
3DS 700
3DS LL 103
Xbox One 72

Pretty poor week for new sales. Oh, and Boku no Bomba Academia: Low Sell-through for All confirmed.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

You did the best you could, PS4.