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[Nirolak]

Depends on definitions of super-niche, fighting game, and western sales numbers.

That terrible Jojo game?

JoJo I'll definitely give you. Gundam would most likely fit, but I think it's a bit unfair to include games that don't release overseas.

 

[Lostconfused]

I am going to say the Vita version of EXVS came out in the west, but nobody wanted that in any region probably.

 

[Man God]

JoJo I'll definitely give you. Gundam would most likely fit, but I think it's a bit unfair to include games that don't release overseas.

They released a couple of Gundam versus games in the PS2 era that made it over here, but I feel that was before the franchise really exploded last gen.

 

[casiopao]

Depends on definitions of super-niche, fighting game, and western sales numbers.

Gundam is not niche like at all in Japan though.^^

THat Jojo number is lieing lol. Consider how bad the WoM and of course its sequel bomb like crazy.^^

 

[Lostconfused]

They released a couple of Gundam versus games in the PS2 era that made it over here, but I feel that was before the franchise really exploded last gen.

Back then all of the gundam games got localized as shocking as that is, also I thought the franchise was always fairly popular, it got a ton of iterations anyway and you could find arcade cabinets for it in the west even.

Edit: It's when the franchise hit the PSP that it kind of went away in the west I think.

 

[Deku89]

I think one of things that will hamper the sale of ARMS will be the motion controls. Not the usual stigma against waggle (which this doesn't have), but that it's not as fun to play in handheld mode. Playing on a TV standing up seems to be the best experience.

I think it'll do pretty well in party settings, but it will probably be a slow burn, especially in Japan. That said, I'm super excited for it and hope it does well.

 

[Xbro]

Funny thing about Splatoon on COMG is that it didn't start out a hit, but a week or two before launch it just exploded.

 

[ggx2ac]

Funny thing about Splatoon on COMG is that it didn't start out a hit, but a week or two before launch it just exploded.

You're pretty much pointing out when the Testfire happened. It was a couple of weeks just before launch.

Prior to the game's release, a time-limited multiplayer demo known as the "Global Testfire" was held on 8 and 9 May 2015 and one two-hour block on 23 May 2015.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Splatoon

Then released on May 28th

 

[Gotdatmoney]

1 million is probably going to be hard to reach but, i would think that having free updates+free new characters and free ARMS should be able to push the game into that 1 million number.

We are talking about Mario Kart team there. They should strive for the biggest one. Not some small number if you ask me here. It is different case with Zelda as Zelda is now a legacy IP with huge overseas fans but ARMS is a new IP. So, if the game did just around 300k, i will be shocked to believe that Nintendo considered that a success.

Just because it's the Mario Kart team doesn't mean that they expect a massive game specifically in Japan. Sometimes you have teams work on new IPs to expand your library and attract new types of players. Mario Kart team could just make another Mario Kart jf huge sales was all that mattered.

If the ARMS sells 700k in Japan instead of 1 million is that a failure suddenly?

I dunno, I don't see new IPs needing to sell 1 millionish in Japan to be a success. The market doesn't support many new IPs selling 1 million first entry. What happened with Splatoon is a once in a generation thing (we got 2 since Yokai Watch also did this).

 

[random25]

Arms I can see doing Zelda numbers. It's heavily promoted, has Post-Game support and will continuously be advertised because of being an in-house first party game.

Splatoon exploded after the launch, so unless Arms does the same thing, I can't see it becoming the next Splatoon in Japan. I can see it being more popular in the West though, with esports focus and all (and even that extra days for test punch in North America kinda says about how Nintendo sees the same thing).

 

[Nirolak]

I was actually kind of curious about how betas and demos have historically impacted sales in Japan.

I know in the West, a successful beta normally correlates to a tremendously large uptick in sales, but is that also true in Japan?

I believe I saw people mention that the Monster Hunter X beta had a strong impact on pre-orders, but can't remember for anything else.

 

[Geg]

Will be interesting to see what kind of impact Splatoon 2 will have on ARMS.

Yeah, someone I know has the impression that Nintendo is sending ARMS out to die by releasing it only a month before Splatoon 2; I hope there's not a big dropoff in sales after release.

 

[Hero of Legend]

You're pretty much pointing out when the Testfire happened. It was a couple of weeks just before launch.



https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Splatoon

Then released on May 28th

Was it the testfire that caused it to dominate?

I'd LOVE to see someone make a documentary detailing about Splatoon's rise in Japan. Could be utterly fascinating to see public opinion in Japan and get real insight on how Splatoon took Japan by storm when there was notable doubt against it.

 

[DrWong]

Yeah, someone I know has the impression that Nintendo is sending ARMS out to die by releasing it only a month before Splatoon 2; I hope there's not a big dropoff in sales after release.

I don't think so given the momentum, I expect quite the opposite if the game delivers (starting with the open beta), like for all the strong games already there. They'll go up.

 

[Passose]

Was it the testfire that caused it to dominate?

I'd LOVE to see someone make a documentary detailing about Splatoon's rise in Japan. Could be utterly fascinating to see public opinion in Japan and get real insight on how Splatoon took Japan by storm when there was notable doubt against it.

I wish I bought a wii u and was in this site back then

 

[Oregano]

I was actually kind of curious about how betas and demos have historically impacted sales in Japan.

I know in the West, a successful beta normally correlates to a tremendously large uptick in sales, but is that also true in Japan?

I believe I saw people mention that the Monster Hunter X beta had a strong impact on pre-orders, but can't remember for anything else.

Demos were a big part of Bravely Default's surprise success.

 

[ggx2ac]

Was it the testfire that caused it to dominate?

I'd LOVE to see someone make a documentary detailing about Splatoon's rise in Japan. Could be utterly fascinating to see public opinion in Japan and get real insight on how Splatoon took Japan by storm when there was notable doubt against it.

First off, the appeal of the game had to get people to want to play the testfire.

Nintendo had showed off Splatoon gameplay plenty of times and it had appeal in Japan what with all the fan art being made.

So there's a reason then people would want to try out the game with the testfire.

The testfire then succeeded in getting people to buy the game.

There's no way the testfire alone would have been enough if the game didn't have appeal.

This is why I've never even touched that Namco treasure f2p game that was on the Wii U whose name I forget. It was f2p and even had a beta, but I didn't care about it.

So appeal matters, think about why Overwatch is also another example of success with its characters.

 

[ZSaberLink]

Dengeki Online Sales: Week 19, 2017 (May 08 - May 14)

01./01. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (Nintendo) {2017.04.28} - 31,772 / 474,926
02./03. [3DS] Monster Hunter Double Cross (Capcom) {2017.03.18} - 12,394 / 1,557,776
03./02. [3DS] Dragon Ball Heroes: Ultimate Mission X (Bandai Namco Games) {2017.04.27} - 10,895 / 134,430
04./00. [3DS] Attack on Titan: Escape from Certain Death (Koei Tecmo) {2017.05.11} - 9,510 / NEW
05./04. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (Nintendo) {2017.03.03} - 8,778 / 450,027
06./05. [3DS] Fire Emblem Echoes: Shadows of Valentia (Nintendo) {2017.04.20} - 5,961 / 184,573
07./13. [PS4] NieR: Automata (Square Enix) {2017.02.23} - 4,111 / 303,569
08./06. [3DS] Pro Baseball Famista Climax (Bandai Namco Games) {2017.04.20} - 3,900 / 68,355
09./10. [PS4] Dark Souls III: The Fire Fades Edition (From Software) {2017.04.20} - 3,789 / 56,800
10./11. [WIU] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (Nintendo) {2017.03.03} - 3,250 / 113,108
11./07. [3DS] Mario Sports Superstars (Nintendo) {2017.03.30} - 3,244 / 91,432
12./08. [NSW] 1-2-Switch (Nintendo) {2017.03.03} - 3,144 / 227,793
13./09. [3DS] Super Mario Maker for Nintendo 3DS (Nintendo) {2016.12.01} - 3,100 / 1,057,897
14./15. [PS4] Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon: Wildlands (Ubisoft) {2017.03.09} - 2,906 / 173,947
15./12. [3DS] Yo-Kai Watch 3: Sukiyaki (Level 5) {2016.12.15} - 2,744 / 750,383
16./18. [3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf - Welcome amiibo (Nintendo) {2016.11.23} - 2,067 / 161,631
17./21. [PS4] Grand Theft Auto V (Take-Two Interactive Japan) {2015.10.08} - 2,044 / 267,507
18./19. [PS4] Horizon: Zero Dawn (Sony Interactive Entertainment) {2017.03.02} - 2,000 / 206,249
19./17. [NSW] Super Bomberman R (Konami) {2017.03.03} - 1,944 / 93,455
20./16. [3DS] Mario Kart 7 (Nintendo) {2011.12.01} - 1,900 / 2,633,895
21./14. [3DS] Cube Creator DX (Arc System Works) {2017.04.27} - 1,894 / 12,261
22./28. [PS4] Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six: Siege (Ubisoft) {2015.12.10} - 1,750 / 199,434
23./20. [3DS] Pokemon Sun (Pokemon Co.) {2016.11.18} - 1,628 / 1,700,266
24./29. [PS4] Winning Eleven 2017 [Konami the Best] (Konami) {2017.04.13} - 1,582 / 11,869
25./22. [PSV] Minecraft: Playstation Vita Edition (SCE) {2015.03.19} - 1,539 / 1,089,015
26./25. [PSV] Dungeon Travelers 2-2: The Maiden Who Fell into Darkness and the Book of Beginnings (Aqua Plus) {2017.04.20} - 1,519 / 40,313
27./00. [PSV] Owaru Sekai to Birthday (Entergram) {2017.05.11} - 1,493 / NEW
28./24. [3DS] Pokemon Moon (Pokemon Co.) {2016.11.18} - 1,489 / 1,558,446
29./30. [PS4] Final Fantasy XV (Square Enix) {2016.11.29} - 1,467 / 954,127
30./32. [PS4] Minecraft: Playstation 4 Edition (Sony Interactive Entertainment) {2015.12.03} - 1,461 / 204,381
31./33. [PS4] Kingdom Hearts HD I.5 + II.5 ReMIX (Square Enix) {2017.03.09} - 1,456 / 102,223
32./31. [PS4] Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball 2016 (Konami) {2016.04.28} - 1,372 / 189,884
33./26. [3DS] Kirby: Planet Robobot (Nintendo) {2016.04.28} - 1,278 / 522,527
34./27. [3DS] Miitopia (Nintendo) {2016.12.08} - 1,272 / 214,315
35./23. [3DS] Poochy & Yoshi's Woolly World (Nintendo) {2017.01.19} - 1,194 / 124,447
36./34. [WIU] Minecraft: Wii U Edition (Microsoft Game Studios) {2016.06.23} - 1,083 / 303,995
37./37. [PS4] PaRappa the Rapper Remastered (Sony Interactive Entertainment) {2017.04.20} - 1,056 / 12,339
38./39. [PS4] LEGO Worlds (Warner Entertainment Japan) {2017.04.06} - 989 / 24,853
39./38. [NSW] Dragon Quest Heroes I & II for Nintendo Switch (Square Enix) {2017.03.03} - 983 / 50,122
40./00. [PSV] Starry Sky: Summer Stories (Honeybee) {2017.05.11} - 950 / NEW
41./40. [NSW] Minna de Wai Wai! Spelunker (Square Enix) {2017.04.20} - 933 / 11,792
42./42. [NSW] Puyo Puyo Tetris S (Sega) {2017.03.03} - 883 / 37,281
43./45. [PSV] Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball 2016 (Konami) {2016.04.28} - 844 / 204,266
44./35. [3DS] Sumikko Gurashi: Mura o Tsukurundesu (Nippon Columbia) {2016.07.21} - 822 / 174,786
45./36. [3DS] Dragon Quest Monsters: Joker 3 - Professional (Square Enix) {2017.02.09} - 772 / 203,728
46./43. [3DS] Super Smash Bros. for Nintendo 3DS (Nintendo) {2014.09.13} - 761 / 2,419,265
47./41. [3DS] Kawaii Pet to Kurasou! Wan Nyan & Mini Mini Animal (Nippon Columbia) {2017.04.06} - 761 / 9,937
48./47. [3DS] Monster Hunter Stories (Capcom) {2016.10.08} - 733 / 336,355
49./46. [PSV] Gun Gun Pixies (Compile Heart) {2017.04.27} - 663 / 10,574
50./44. [3DS] Mario Party Star Rush (Nintendo) {2016.10.20} - 650 / 172,413

SOFTWARE

--------------------------------------------------------
| Model | This Week | Week(%)  | FY 2017     | FY(%)   |
--------------------------------------------------------
| 3DS   | 93,383    | 41.3%    | 1,079,275   | 41.6%   |
| PS4   | 51,271    | 22.7%    | 490,130     | 18.9%   |
| Switch| 49,410    | 21.8%    | 703,170     | 27.1%   |
| Vita  | 21,023    | 9.3%     | 226,735     | 8.7%    |
| Wii U | 7,641     | 3.4%     | 71,792      | 2.8%    |
| PS3   | 3,309     | 1.5%     | 22,496      | 0.9%    |
| X One | 113       | 0.0%     | 1,818       | 0.1%    |
--------------------------------------------------------
| Total | 226,150   | 100.0%   | 2,595,416   | 100.0%  |
--------------------------------------------------------

HARDWARE

--------------------------------------------------------
| Model | This Week | Week(%)  | FY 2017     | FY(%)   |
--------------------------------------------------------
| Switch| 24,123    | 39.8%    | 279,686     | 47.9%   |
| PS4   | 16,341    | 26.9%    | 123,347     | 21.1%   |
| 3DS   | 13,411    | 22.1%    | 117,514     | 20.1%   |
| Vita  | 3,920     | 6.5%     | 34,585      | 5.9%    |
| 2DS   | 2,436     | 4.0%     | 23,705      | 4.1%    |
| PS3   | 264       | 0.4%     | 2,659       | 0.5%    |
| Wii U | 124       | 0.2%     | 1,410       | 0.2%    |
| X One | 55        | 0.1%     | 431         | 0.1%    |
--------------------------------------------------------
| Total | 60,674    | 100.0%   | 583,337     | 100.0%  |
--------------------------------------------------------

Dengeki Online Sales: Week 18, 2017 (May 01 - May 07)

Dengeki Sales Archive
2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014

 

[Calm Mind]

Wow at Switch and PS4 software sales for the week being so close despite the difference in support and hardware sales.

 

[ZSaberLink]

So many titles below 1000 sales in the Dengeki top 50 though... T_T

Anyways...
Yokai Watch 3 Sukiyaki finally hits 750K
15./12. [3DS] Yo-Kai Watch 3: Sukiyaki (Level 5) {2016.12.15} - 2,744 / 750,383

Mario Kart 8 Deluxe and Zelda Switch both hit 450K
01./01. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (Nintendo) {2017.04.28} - 31,772 / 474,926
05./04. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (Nintendo) {2017.03.03} - 8,778 / 450,027

Nier hits 300K in Dengeki
07./13. [PS4] NieR: Automata (Square Enix) {2017.02.23} - 4,111 / 303,569

Rainbow Six Siege basically hits 200K!
22./28. [PS4] Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six: Siege (Ubisoft) {2015.12.10} - 1,750 / 199,434

Dragon Quest Heroes I + II finally hits 50K.
39./38. [NSW] Dragon Quest Heroes I & II for Nintendo Switch (Square Enix) {2017.03.03} - 983 / 50,122

 

[Graphics Horse]

Wow at Switch and PS4 software sales for the week being so close despite the difference in support and hardware sales.

Surely there are vast numbers of low selling ps4 games outside the top 50 that would put them further ahead if counted

But Switch has a decent lead in yearly SW already and will probably stay like that.

 

[Chris1964]

After July we will see how much Switch will into 3DS and PS4 sales. Unlike Switch both have a weaker second half comparing to last year. Especially 3DS is dead at big releases despite hardware holding so far better than expected. Vita is finished since the beginning of the year, the only thing to watch is if God Eater 3 is coming out for it.

 

[Ōkami]

PSN Rankings

PS4

01/01. Wolfenstein: The New Order (5% OFF) (Bethesda Softworks) – {05/06/2014} (¥7.935)
02/07. Little Nightmares (Bandai Namco) – {28/04/2017} (¥2.376)
03/02. How to Survive 2 (Spike Chunsoft) – {25/04/2017} (¥2.160)
04/03. Bloodborne: The Old Hunters Edition (50% OFF) (Sony Computer Entertainment) – {03/12/2015} (¥2.646)
05/04. Nier: Automata (50% OFF) (Square Enix) – {23/02/2017} (¥6.739)
06/16. Final Fantasy XIV (50% OFF) (Square Enix) – {23/06/2015} (¥3.132)
07/05. Battlefield 4: Premium Edition (71% OFF) (Electronic Arts) – {17/03/2016} (¥1.190)
08/15. Minecraft: PlayStation 4 Edition (Mojang) – {25/12/2014} (¥2.592)
09/06. Borderlands: The Handsome Collection (2K Collection) (67% OFF) (Take Two Interactive Japan) – {02/03/2017} (¥1.354)
10/08. Metal Gear Solid V: The Definite Experience (30% OFF) (Konami) – {10/11/2016} (¥2.980)
11/12. Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball 2016 (43% OFF) (Konami) – {28/04/2016} (¥4.980)
12/NEW. Lethal League (Reptile Games) – {10/05/2017} (¥1.500)
13/09. Need for Speed (60% OFF) (Electronic Arts) – {13/07/2016} (¥1.209)
14/10. Grand Theft Auto V (50% OFF) (Take Two Interactive Japan) – {11/12/2014} (¥3.596)
15/11. Battlefield 1 (50% OFF) (Electronic Arts) – {18/10/2016} (¥4.212)
16/13. Gravity Rush 2 (50% OFF) (Sony Interactive Entertainment) – {19/01/2017} (¥5.961)
17/14. Bioshock: The Collection (Take Two Interactive Japan) – {15/09/2016} (¥5.346)
18/00. Nioh (Koei Tecmo) – {09/02/2017} (¥8.424)
19/00. Dark Souls III: The Fire Fades Edition (From Software) – {20/04/2017} (¥5.832)
20/17. Parappa The Rapper: Remastered (Sony Interactive Entertainment) – {20/04/2017} (¥1.944)

PSV

01/01. Salt and Sanctuary (30% OFF) (Ska Studios) – {13/04/2017} (¥1.246)
02/04. Higurashi no Naku Koro ni Sui (25% OFF) (Entergram) – {12/03/2015} (¥2.980)
03/02. Dungeon Travelers 2-2 (Aquaplus) – {20/04/2017} (¥5.142)
04/05. White Album 2: Shiawase no Mukougawa (AquaPrice 2800) (50% OFF) (Aquaplus) – {28/11/2013} (¥1.028)
05/03. Kenka Bancho Otome (50% OFF) (Spike Chunsoft) – {19/15/2016} (¥2.970)
06/08. Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball 2016 (43% OFF) (Konami) – {28/04/2016} (¥4.280)
07/07. Hot Shots Golf: World Invitational (36% OFF) (PlayStation Vita the Best) (Sony Computer Entertainment) – {10/10/2013} (¥1.498)
08/06. Dungeon Travelers 2 (40% OFF) (Aquaplus) – {25/09/2014} (¥3.085)
09/14. Romancing SaGa 2 (Square Enix) – {24/03/2016} (¥2.200)
10/15. Minecraft: PlayStation Vita Edition (Mojang) – {29/10/2014} (¥2.592)
11/10. Atelier Shallie Plus: Alchemists of the Dusk Sea (Koei Tecmo) – {03/03/2016} (¥5.554)
12/11. Atelier Escha & Logy Plus: Alchemists of the Dusk Sky (Koei Tecmo) – {22/01/2015} (¥5.554)
13/19. Touhou Genso Wanderer (15% OFF) (Mediascape) – {25/06/2015} (¥4.773)
14/13. Civilization Revolution 2+ (Take Two Interactive Japan) – {03/12/2015} (¥2.060)
15/17. Atelier Ayesha Plus: The Alchemist of Dusk (Koei Tecmo) – {27/03/2014} (¥5.554)
16/00. HotChkiss (Entergram) – {29/08/2013} (¥4.093)
17/16. X-COM Enemy Unknown + (Take Two Interactive Japan) – {22/03/2016} (¥2.590)
18/00. Persona 4: Golden (PlayStation Vita the Best) (Atlus) – {05/02/2015} (¥3.980)
19/20. Omega Labyrinth (D3 Publisher) – {19/11/2015} (¥6.480)
20/00. Fate/Hollow: Ataraxia (PlayStation Vita the Best) (Marvelous) – {27/04/2017} (¥3.500)

PS3

01/01. Minecraft: PlayStation 3 Edition (Mojang) – {24/06/2014} (¥2.592)
02/01. Sonic Adventure 2 (51% OFF) (SEGA) – {04/10/2012} (¥500)
03/03. Hot Shots Golf: World Invitational (36% OFF) (PlayStation Vita the Best) (Sony Computer Entertainment) – {10/10/2013} (¥1.498)
04/08. Higurashi no Naku Koro ni Sui (25% OFF) (Entergram) – {12/03/2015} (¥2.980)
05/04. Virtual On (39% OFF) (SEGA) – {13/02/2013} (¥500)
06/10. White Album 2: Shiawase no Mukougawa (AquaPrice 2800) (50% OFF) (Aquaplus) – {28/11/2013} (¥1.028)
07/07. Virtual Fighter 5: Final Showdown (67% OFF) (SEGA) – {06/06/2012} (¥500)
08/09. White Album: Tsuzurareru Fuyu no Omoide (AquaPrice 2800) (50% OFF) (Aquaplus) – {27/11/2014} (¥1.028)
09/06. To Heart 2 DX Plus (Aqua Price 2800) (50% OFF) (Aquaplus) – {26/06/2014} (¥1.028)
10/05. Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball 2016 (43% OFF) (Konami) – {28/04/2016} (¥4.280)
11/12. Nights into Dreams (51% OFF) (SEGA) – {04/10/2012} (¥500)
12/20. Pixel Junk 10th Bundle Pack (Q Games) – {02/05/2017} (¥2.000)
13/11. The House of the Dead 4 (51% OFF) (SEGA) – {19/04/2012} (¥500)
14/14. Space Channel 5: Part 2 (51% OFF) (SEGA) – {05/10/2011} (¥500)
15/17. Jet Set Radio (51% OFF) (SEGA) – {20/02/2013} (¥500)
16/15. The House of the Dead III (51% OFF) (SEGA) – {19/04/2012} (¥500)
17/19. The Cave (SEGA) – {28/08/2013} (¥1.028)
18/16. Earth Defense Force 4 (D3 Publisher) – {04/07/2013} (¥7.180)
19/00. Tears To Tiara II (AquaPrice 2800) (50% OFF) (Aquaplus) – {31/10/2013} (¥1.028)
20/13. FIFA 17 (60% OFF) (Electronic Arts) – {29/09/2016} (¥2.073)

PSP

01/00. Fate/Extra Double Pack (43% OFF) (Marvelous) – {26/04/2017} (¥2.800)
02/00. Fate/Extra CCC (PSP the Best) (33% OFF) (Marvelous) – {30/01/2014} (¥1.700)
03/00. Sakura Taisen 1 & 2 (Sega the Best) (33% OFF) (SEGA) – {28/07/2011} (¥1.944)
04/00. Persona 3: Portable (PSP the Best) (Marvelous) – {25/08/2011} (¥2.376)
05/00. Monster Hunter Freedom Unite (Capcom) – {18/03/2010} (¥1.500)
06/00. Monster Hunter Freedom 3 (Capcom) – {28/07/2011} (¥2.000)
07/00. No Heroes Allowed! (PSP the Best) (Sony Computer Entertainement) – {06/03/2014} (¥1.440)
08/00. Yu-Gi-Oh! Arc V-V Tag Force Special (Konami) – {22/01/2015} (¥3.000)
09/00. Harvest Moon: Back to Nature (PSP the Best) (Marvelous) – {17/08/2009} (¥1.543)
10/00. Metal Gear Solid: Peace Walker (PSP the Best) (Konami) – {24/02/2011} (¥916)

 

[casiopao]

Just because it's the Mario Kart team doesn't mean that they expect a massive game specifically in Japan. Sometimes you have teams work on new IPs to expand your library and attract new types of players. Mario Kart team could just make another Mario Kart jf huge sales was all that mattered.

If the ARMS sells 700k in Japan instead of 1 million is that a failure suddenly?

I dunno, I don't see new IPs needing to sell 1 millionish in Japan to be a success. The market doesn't support many new IPs selling 1 million first entry. What happened with Splatoon is a once in a generation thing (we got 2 since Yokai Watch also did this).

700k would be kinda acceptable i guess? But i had higher expectation for ARMS here. It was highly promoted by Nintendo both on Direct and on sites. We see people actually had their hands their hands playing the game and the response is positive.

So with all that factor, thats why i believe 1 million should not be unreachable.

Was it the testfire that caused it to dominate?

I'd LOVE to see someone make a documentary detailing about Splatoon's rise in Japan. Could be utterly fascinating to see public opinion in Japan and get real insight on how Splatoon took Japan by storm when there was notable doubt against it.

It the combination of a fresh idea, Testfire, Niconico video about Splatoon doing really well in viewership that i know help push Splatoon very well.

which i also feel will be some way a disadvantage ARMS is going to have as this time, it is not going to be as easy to replicate in real life while Splatoon video on how to build the Splat Gun is really popular in Japan and help propel its popularity.

 

[schuelma]

700k would be kinda acceptable i guess? But i had higher expectation for ARMS here. It was highly promoted by Nintendo both on Direct and on sites. We see people actually had their hands their hands playing the game and the response is positive.

So with all that factor, thats why i believe 1 million should not be unreachable.


.

I'm not saying 1 million isn't impossible or anything, but do you realize how big of a feat that would be for a new IP in Japan? Its not like Splatoon happens every day.

 

[casiopao]

I'm not saying 1 million isn't impossible or anything, but do you realize how big of a feat that would be for a new IP in Japan? Its not like Splatoon happens every day.

Well thats why i had higher expectation here as if there is any company which is capable of breaking that 1 mil number in japan, it is nintendo.

 

[Takao]

tbf same vita fans already bought the game so it's reasonable for them not to buy the ps4 one

By this logic, they would've already owned them on PSP and thus wouldn't need to buy them again on Vita.

The gap in sales between Vita and PS4 on Dangan V3 (despite Spike Chunsoft claimining they designed the game to be played on a big TV lol) already said everything.

 

[Hero of Legend]

Another week done for my Switch sales archive.

Hope folks find it useful. I never get feedback or suggestions.

 

[Eolz]

Another week done for my Switch sales archive.

Hope folks find it useful. I never get feedback or suggestions.

Thanks for the compilation!
First time I see it to be honest. I guess a graph you can repost would help

 

[ZSaberLink]

Another week done for my Switch sales archive.

Hope folks find it useful. I never get feedback or suggestions.

I view it every once in a while and it's nice!

 

[Hero of Legend]

Thanks for the compilation!
First time I see it to be honest. I guess a graph you can repost would help

A comparison graph of each tracker for say, MK8D? How do I make these?

And no problem to both of you! Happy to help!

 

[Aostia]

Wait
Are those 700/1 million mark prediction for Japan only?
It would have to be an astonishing success to hit that milestone
It is not that being a new IP with multiplayer and an online demo event is enough to be a splatoon, I think....

 

[ksamedi]

I think ARMS will do very well worldwide and also in Japan. Nintendo is hugely auccesful in creating mega sellers. Their games bombing is more the exception than the rule. 200k would be a huge failure as im sure internal expectations are pretty high, espexially for a game from one of their main development teams.

 

[Chris1964]

Well thats why i had higher expectation here as if there is any company which is capable of breaking that 1 mil number in japan, it is nintendo.

1m for Japan from a new fighting IP would mean a Smash Bros. level entry.

Anything over 500k for Arms should be considered a success for Nintendo.

 

[Mory Dunz]

We went from underestimating arms to overestimating it.

Ok

 

[twothunder]

The fun thing is that Arms pre-orders on Comg are higher than Splatoon 1 at the same time. But people here making conclusions...

you're right.
with 29 days to go. Splatoon 1 had 19 ponts vs ARMS with 23
in fact. while Splatoon's points did increase over time. They didn't start with big point increases till around 12 days before launch.

interesting to look back at that and see how things are now

 

[Salvadora]

I honestly have no idea about ARMS' sales potential.

It's a wildcard.

 

[Eolz]

We went from underestimating arms to overestimating it.

Ok

mediacreate_threads.gif

edit: I think some people are expecting any nintendo franchise getting a good reaction after a Direct to become another Splatoon phenomenon now, regardless of the game's genre.

 

[cw_sasuke]

Some of you should check how much Smash. Bros 4 sold on WiiU...these ARMS predictions are crazy. Nothing we have seen so far suggest these type of sales. Does it have potential to be big ? Sure...but thats all for now until word of mouth/DLC pushes the game further post release.

+300k would be quite solid for now. +500k if it great review and actually is a very good game.

 

[rhandino]

All the "[insert game here] is going to be a W101 bomba" comments are like someone that says "Oh! Its going to rain today" even when it's sunny and when it actually rains will turn to you and say "Told you!!!"

I don't think ARMS is going to be Splatoon kind of huge but a nice seller at launch paired with some nice legs from good word of mouth and that's OK.

I also have some faith because the ARMS Direct has > 400k views so there is interest in the game.

 

[Daphnes Nohansen Hyrule]

100k FW would be pretty good for ARMS

80k good
60k OK
30k bad
15k bomba

>150k next splatoon.

 

[Jon Carter]

Arms I can see doing Zelda numbers. It's heavily promoted, has Post-Game support and will continuously be advertised because of being an in-house first party game.

Splatoon exploded after the launch, so unless Arms does the same thing, I can't see it becoming the next Splatoon in Japan. I can see it being more popular in the West though, with esports focus and all (and even that extra days for test punch in North America kinda says about how Nintendo sees the same thing).

There is no extra day for North America, it's just that, because of the different time zones, the week-ends' first session will end up being on Friday night in North America.

 

[ZSaberLink]

100k FW would be pretty good for ARMS

80k good
60k OK
30k bad
15k bomba

>150k next splatoon.

While having a non-terrible first week is likely good, it's really going to be about the legs of the title. Most successful new IPs start off low but then never stop selling if I'm not mistaken.

Some random examples:
GB Pokémon Red / Green / Blue 140.074 7.936.360 Nintendo 2/27/1996
PS1 Resident Evil 148.904 1.194.779 Capcom 3/22/1996
NDS Brain Age: Train Your Brain in Minutes a Day! 44.166 3.847.136 Nintendo 5/19/2005
3DS Yo-kai Watch 52.901 1.332.971 Level 5 7/11/2013
WIU Splatoon 156.610 1.632.495 Nintendo 5/28/2015

I think the first decent bar for ARMs to clear is Pokken Tournament: WIU Pokken Tournament 72.502 173.494 Pokémon Co. 3/18/2016

Apart from Smash, I'm pretty sure that's the best fighting game sales in Japan in a long time...

 

[Ōkami]

I'm more intested to see on what happens after Arms outsells Tekken 7

 

[Fdkn]

Apart from Smash, I'm pretty sure that's the best fighting game sales in Japan in a long time...

what do you call a long time? Gundam Extreme VS was over 500k and the Full Boost revision around 400k too

 

[vareon]

Is it possible that Splatoon 2 will cut ARMS's....legs?

 

[ggx2ac]

Is it possible that Splatoon 2 will cut ARMS's....legs?

That's the same question to consider for Mario Kart 8 Deluxe.

These are all multiplayer games that Nintendo are pushing, will they cannibalise each other?

It's too hard to say since they are most likely going to be evergreen titles so it's great that Nintendo released them as early as possible on the Switch.

 

[Passose]

Azura Striker Gunvolt is coming to switch. Wow, what a surprise
‪ http://nintendoeverything.com/?p=486709‬

 

[sinonobu]

Azura Striker Gunvolt is coming to switch. Wow, what a surprise
‪ http://nintendoeverything.com/?p=486709‬

Expected but still very happy!

 

[Passose]

Expected but still very happy!

I'm very happy to play a 3ds port of a game I've played before