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Media Create Sales: Week 19, 2017 (May 08 - May 14)

Zedark

Member
Even if the Switch is indeed supply constrained, why is it not around the 40k~ish mark like before? If I had to guess, I'd say that they moved some stock somewhere else but for what reason?
Perhaps they had planned low shipments for this week for Japan because of the post-Golden Week drops? Which would mean that they always planned to ship low numbers, despite it seemingly not being necessary due to high demand (whereas they expected it to normalise to this level by now).
 
Starting to get worried that there may indeed be huge production problems, possibly with Japan Display. That would not be good.
 

Dystify

Member
Starting to get worried that there may indeed be huge production problems, possibly with Japan Display. That would not be good.

Does it seem like that? To me it seems more like there are steady shipments that always sell out. It's not that easy / fast to increase production.
 
Even if the Switch is indeed supply constrained, why is it not around the 40k~ish mark like before? If I had to guess, I'd say that they moved some stock somewhere else but for what reason?

I have half a suspicion they're now going to try and hold back some stock as it's produced, so that for new, big releases - such as ARMS and Splatoon - they have a larger supply to ship all at once.
 

ethomaz

Banned
That means they sold 72.623 Switch in May.

I still expect the shipment to be 200k this month but with only two more weeks unless there is a big boost it looks it will fall behind the target :(

Maybe they are planning to ship only 150k in May? The other explanation could be shipment is higher than demand.
 

ggx2ac

Member
It makes sense as to what people are saying that they shipped more for the MK8D launch and didn't have much supply for this week.

If they didn't supply enough for the MK8D launch, then they would have made a lot more 'lost sales' with people buying something else for golden week than to have 40k stock for after golden week ends.
 
Does it seem like that? To me it seems more like there are steady shipments that always sell out. It's not that easy / fast to increase production.

They were rumored to be doubling their FY production starting in early March. I would've expected we would be seeing those effects by mid May, but apparently not. I guess it could just be taking longer than I thought but it's at least an issue we should keep our eyes on.
 

ethomaz

Banned
Jesus, Nintendo. When is the increased production supposed to take effect? I hope this isn't it...
I know Nintendo said they will try to increase production but the 10m forecast shows the actual shipment is what they planned.

Unless they up the 10m forecas I don't believe in production increase before holidays.

They were rumored to be doubling their FY production starting in early March. I would've expected we would be seeing those effects by mid May, but apparently not. I guess it could just be taking longer than I thought but it's at least an issue we should keep our eyes on.
Perhaps the 10m forecast is already the doubled production? They expect 5m before Switch success?
 

Kanann

Member
y1CNnbU.jpg
 
I wonder if the week before being golden week meant there were logistical issues that meant a knock on of low shipment for this week
 
Perhaps the 10m forecast is already the doubled production? They expect 5m before Switch success?

The WSJ rumor was 8m originally to 16m. For production, which isn't the same as target shipments.

16m being produced would make sense with a conservative shipping estimate of 10m, but if the 10m is really all they think they can manage then I don't think those numbers add up.

I think it's a little too early to worry about this. Its been 2 1/2 months man.

True, it's just a worry I've had since hearing about Japan Display's financial issues in general. I think this holiday's shipments will probably be a lot more telling about their production capacity.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
While the online stores situation is still of short supply, it'd be great to hear more from Japanese retail stores themselves to get further confirmations about the console's scarcity.
 

ethomaz

Banned
The WSJ rumor was 8m originally to 16m. For production, which isn't the same as target shipments.

16m being produced would make sense with a conservative shipping estimate of 10m, but if the 10m is really all they think they can manage then I don't think those numbers add up.
While it is true production is a bit different from shipment... I don't expect a over 2m gap between them.

This 16m looks way off.
 
Perhaps the 10m forecast is already the doubled production? They expect 5m before Switch success?

This is one of the silliest things you have ever posted.

True, it's just a worry I've had since hearing about Japan Display's financial issues in general. I think this holiday's shipments will probably be a lot more telling about their production capacity.

We are still in launch window for an underestimated hardware. 75 days is not a long time. Far too little to say anything besides Nintendo should gauge their products better
 

marmoka

Banned
Switch is dead.
3DS is dead.
PS4 is dead.

Everyone is dead.

If sales increase next week, beware, it's a zombie invasion.
 
https://gamewith.jp/gamedb/article/show/43620?from=ios

As I said in the other thread, the console is still having shortages problems at least on all the online storefronts (the last update is a few hours ago, so it's extremely recent).

so why they just shipped 25k when usually they shipped 40k ?


those shortages are fake, same as happened with famicom mini
real shortages were during DSL time, the more nintendo shipped the more they sold; now they just make "fixed" shipments to keep the hype among the consumer cause the line-up is so modest that without those "shortages" the hype would have been already vanished
 

Aostia

El Capitan Todd
Switch shortages should be fix ASAP, otherwise we can't properly comment on the MC threads, and it is not fun
 

Aostia

El Capitan Todd
so why they just shipped 25k when usually they shipped 40k ?


those shortages are fake, same as happened with famicom mini
real shortages were during DSL time, the more nintendo shipped the more they sold; now they just make "fixed" shipments to keep the hype among the consumer cause the line-up is so modest that without those "shortages" the hype would have been already vanished


You can't sell bad if you're sold out
 

zelas

Member
Yeah the US number was troubling in terms of how nintendo was handling stock. This number just reeks of incompetence though. All of their resources, access, and experience and they still cant gauge market demand?
 

hiska-kun

Member
PS4 VS PS3
ps4_zpsu51fzszi.jpg

Code:
------------------------------------------------------------- 
|    |   PlayStation 3   |   PlayStation 4   |  Difference  | 
|    |    (2006/11/11)   |    (2014/02/22)   |              | 
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------| 
|Week|  Weekly |   LTD   |  Weekly |   LTD   |   PS4 - PS3  | 
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------| 
| 167|   35.156|4.598.114|   25.303|4.704.526|       106.412| 
| 168|   26.966|4.625.080|   27.954|4.732.481|       107.401| 
| 169|   34.431|4.659.511|   17.295|4.749.776|        90.265|
| 170|   25.450|4.684.961|         |         |              |
| 171|   24.811|4.709.772|         |         |              |
| 172|   32.130|4.741.902|         |         |              |
| 173|   27.763|4.769.665|         |         |              |
| 174|   28.824|4.798.489|         |         |              |
| 175|   26.481|4.824.970|         |         |              |
| 176|   50.164|4.875.134|         |         |              |
| 177|   50.448|4.925.582|         |         |              |
| 178|   38.877|4.964.459|         |         |              |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|

Switch VS 3DS
switch_zpsn42ra421.jpg

Code:
------------------------------------------------------------- 
|    |    Nintendo 3DS   |   Nintendo Switch |  Difference  | 
|    |    (2011/02/26)   |    (2017/03/03)   |              | 
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------| 
|Week|  Weekly |   LTD   |  Weekly |   LTD   |   NSW - 3DS  | 
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|
|   9|   23.038|  920.133|   76.679|  777.252|      -142.881|
|  10|   28.413|  948.546|   47.911|  825.163|      -123.383|
|  11|   29.149|  977.695|   24.712|  849.875|      -127.820|
|  12|   18.324|  996.019|         |         |              |
|  13|   17.240|1.013.259|         |         |              |
|  14|   24.283|1.037.542|         |         |              |
|  15|   27.357|1.064.899|         |         |              |
|  16|   24.649|1.089.548|         |         |              |
|  17|   40.649|1.130.197|         |         |              |
|  18|   27.905|1.158.102|         |         |              |
|  19|   30.233|1.188.335|         |         |              |
|  20|   22.943|1.211.278|         |         |              |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|

Switch Weekly Sales
switch2_zpshgn0ckbh.jpg

Code:
+--+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+
|  |    3DS   |    PSV   |    WIU   |    PS4   |    NSW   |
|La|2011.02.26|2011.12.17|2012.12.08|2014.02.22|2017.03.03|
+--+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+
| 1|   374.764|   324.859|   308.142|   309.154|   329.152|
| 2|   209.623|    72.479|   126.916|    65.685|    61.998|
| 3|    96.463|    42.648|   122.843|    35.294|    49.913|
| 4|    61.394|    42.915|    69.386|    29.677|    78.441|
| 5|    50.710|    18.361|    67.083|    30.201|    45.509|
| 6|    42.979|    15.219|    20.715|    23.327|    41.193|
| 7|    32.910|    18.942|    16.654|    13.401|    45.673|
| 8|    28.252|    17.141|    13.746|    13.034|    48.694|
| 9|    23.038|    13.939|    12.959|    14.396|    76.679|
|10|    28.413|    12.309|    12.185|    12.712|    47.911|
|11|    29.149|    11.186|    10.744|    11.486|    24.712|
|12|    18.324|    10.023|     9.633|     8.480|          |
|13|    17.240|    10.041|    10.021|     6.792|          |
|14|    24.283|    10.021|     9.454|     7.543|          |
+--+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+

MK8 Wii U VS MK8D Switch
mariokart_zpscngmchrc.jpg
 
Switch gonna need a sustained shot up the ARMS if it's going to try and chase crossing 3DS' trajectory, prior to the price drop making that nigh-impossible.
 
Switch gonna need a sustained shot up the ARMS if it's going to try and chase crossing 3DS' trajectory, prior to the price drop making that nigh-impossible.

No? It is going to need a sustained shot of supply maybe. I don't think it is lacking in demand quite yet.

Also this is why I think it'll be tough for Zelda to hit a million. We will see if it goes back up with more Switch supply, but I think it will be losing steam because of weeks like this.
 

noshten

Member
Yeah the US number was troubling in terms of how nintendo was handling stock. This number just reeks of incompetence though. All of their resources, access, and experience and they still cant gauge market demand?

Some people mentioned that they shipped more units to the US launch that might have been allocated for April. Thus the shipment for April/May were effected. In any case MK8D is probably close to 2 million WW at this point so it's not like the "shortage" has hurt the sales of MK8D which is going to be one of the evergreen titles this year.
MK8D will continue to sell as every previous MK entry and has already done much better than the Wii U version at launch.

For April Nintendo sold 50% of Hardware in the US, April is generally a slow month and if Switch had followed 3DS trajectory it would have already be meeting demand in the US. Instead it's far more popular and should remain top selling system in the US for the entire summer with ease.
In any case having MK8D and Zelda in the top 3 of the NPD even for a slow month like April when Nintendo wasn't even able to stock properly bodes well for both games.
 

D.Lo

Member
While it is true production is a bit different from shipment... I don't expect a over 2m gap between them.

This 16m looks way oof.
You know why they call it 'ramping up production'? Because you cannot instantly double output. You add bandwidth which accelerates output, until you reach your desired velocity.

We're two months in. It's like you expect a Ferrari to have reached 200mph when the accelerator only hit the floor one second ago.
 
at first I was like "well there goes BotW sales, looks like MK8 affected it after all"... then looked at the hardware sales. Looks like its sticking right around 50% attach rate of new hardware sales.
 

L~A

Member
That Attack on Titan did even worse than I was expecting.


Attack on Titan: Humanity in Chains - 89 448 FW (Famitsu)

vs

05./00. [3DS] Attack on Titan: Escape from Certain Death # <ADV> (Koei Tecmo) {2017.05.11} (¥5.800) - 8.599 / NEW (Media Create)


Guess going with an Adventure game on 3DS with original story wasn't KT's best idea, heh.
 

Shizuka

Member
That Attack on Titan did even worse than I was expected.


Attack on Titan: Humanity in Chains - 89 448 FW (Famitsu)

vs

05./00. [3DS] Attack on Titan: Escape from Certain Death # <ADV> (Koei Tecmo) {2017.05.11} (¥5.800) - 8.599 / NEW


Guess going with an Adventure game on 3DS with original story wasn't KT's best idea, heh.

On par with the visual novel genre.
 

ggx2ac

Member
I still don't like this title:

Attack on Titan: Escape from Certain Death

It's as though it's stating the obvious, like if Nintendo decided to call their next Mario title:

Super Mario: Jump on Platforms
 
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