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[lunchwithyuzo]

The casual exodus narrative makes more sense in the west, but seems less relevant in a Japan sales thread. Even on Wii last year games like Mario Party 9, DQX or Taiko Super Deluxe still killed it sales wise. There's still sizable a market for this stuff on consoles in Japan.

 

[Baconsammy]

Those folks are not "gone." What, tens of millions of Wii owners and casual gamers have suddenly disappeared or quit playing console video games?

They haven't quit gaming. They just found a much better, cheaper way to do it, which is more of a relevant point for a different thread as yuzo pointed out. The loss of the core gamer may be as big a deal in Japan as it is in the West. 2-3 years of terrible Wii software support can't help.

 

[ohlawd]

So basically Nintendo needs to put out Mario Kart for the Wii U, then it will start to sell.

Announce games like MKU while at the same time, state some fucking release dates for games that already exist (Pikmin 3, TW101, Lego City..)

 

[evangd007]

That won't sell consoles. Games in stores will. The problem is they don't have games that will attract back the huge chunk of the market that appeared to make the Wii a raging success. Those folks are gone, so some people need to lower the bar for Nintendo a bit (a lot). Their other huge problem is attracting back all the core gamers they lost by catering to non-gamers. The Wii U's hardware and features are obviously not doing it for those people, and probably never will in a meaningful way.

This would assume they still had those before they released the Wii. Gamecube had a lot of good will, but not much in the way of sales. While they may have had them in the N64 era, the game has changed. Microsoft has all but guaranteed that most Western publishers and independent developers won't touch Nintendo hardware with a ten foot pole. Their only option is to fight for Japanese support and bring their big first-party guns to the table.

 

[marc^o^]

They haven't quit gaming. They just found a much better, cheaper way to do it

3DS?

People love Nintendo games and react to it. Wii U obviously needs some more.

 

[Anth0ny]

Those folks are not "gone." What, tens of millions of Wii owners and casual gamers have suddenly disappeared or quit playing console video games? They surely didn't migrate to the PS3 or fully to the 360 (exempting the kinect customers). They're still there, waiting for the right games to pull them back into Nintendo's camp. The DS started off slow in attaining casual consumer interest, as well, catering mainly to Nintendo fans and handheld enthusiasts before Nintendogs and Brain Age came out, and after that, it absorbed practically the entire casual market.

Weren't around when Wii/DS launched.

I think the casual market has moved on from Nintendo consoles. Brain Age 3DS didn't sell, did it? I don't expect Wii Fit U to do very well either.

 

[-Pyromaniac-]

We'll never find out the truth but I wonder if Nintendo knew they were going to have to ride out a bunch of very rough months like the upcoming ones, or if they genuinely thought this thing would sell a lot and they'd cruise to next holiday.

 

[electroplankton]

Insaid it before, Nintendo just can't support two pieces of hardware at the same time. It went weong with the N64-GBC, GAMECUBE-GBA,WI-DS.
Where one piece of hardware is getting great support, the other is lacking.
With more developmenttime needed per software this becomes more and more apparant.

Nintendo would be unbeatable with only one piece of hardware to support.

Actually, Nintendo supported greatly both DS and Wii. The problem with Wii was the somehow insane release schedule.

 

[lwilliams3]

3DS?

People love Nintendo games and react to it. Wii U obviously needs some more.

Yes. When is this month's developer meeting?

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

We'll never find out the truth but I wonder if Nintendo knew they were going to have to ride out a bunch of very rough months like the upcoming ones, or if they genuinely thought this thing would sell a lot and they'd cruise to next holiday.

They delayed most of their 1st party stuff out from launch/window so I think they did expect a rougher 1st half, but I'd wager it's going much worse much quicker than anticipated. US and Japan both fell off fast from good launches and PAL bombed out the gates.

 

[marc^o^]

Nintendo is leaving room for 3rd party games to sell, thus so few 1st party games in the launch lineup. That is a tactic decision that hasn't quite paid off, and install base critical mass will now become a priority. New Nintendo games should quickly come to the rescue.

 

[DXB-KNIGHT]

Nintendo is leaving room for 3rd party games to sell, thus so few 1st party games in the launch lineup. That is a tactic decision that hasn't quite paid off, and install base critical mass will now become a priority. New Nintendo games should quickly come to the rescue.

Shouldn't 3rd party games be announced first?

 

[Road]

What will Nintendo do?

A) Show a bunch of logos for moneyhatted 3rd party games.
B) Show the new Mario Kart, 3D Mario, 3D Zelda, 3D Pokemon, Metroid, Smash Bros, Donkey Kong, Kirby etc.
C) More Wii rehashes -- Wii Sports U, Wii Party U
D) Drop the price by 5,000 yen.
E) All of the above.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

Shouldn't 3rd party games be announced first?

That would be the problem. I figured Japanese devs would be happy to have a 2nd port destination where games could conceivably sell (sorry 360/Vita) but I guess not. :/

What will Nintendo do?

A) Show a bunch of logos for moneyhatted 3rd party games.
B) Show the new Mario Kart, 3D Mario, 3D Zelda, 3D Pokemon, Metroid, Smash Bros, Donkey Kong, Kirby etc.
C) More Wii rehashes -- Wii Sports U, Wii Party U
D) Drop the price by 5,000 yen.
E) All of the above.

E is what they need to do, but I'm going to guess F) Nothing until E3.

 

[nickcv]

Shouldn't 3rd party games be announced first?

ice cold

 

[Aquamarine]

These giant companies you are tallying have different aspects of business. SONY and Sony Computer Entertainment Inc. are different sectors really. Microsoft and Apple you already know have a much bigger distribution of products for international markets.

That's irrelevant when you consider the capital that the corporations can invest into a project. Nintendo only has games. The other players are major corporations that can afford to take the hit if their console fails.

Nintendo has sufficient R&D really, and they can release as many or more games this generation than last generation. I will tell you why. Even though the games are now "HD" and "3D", the staff sizes aren't dramatically different from the Wii U to Wii, and slightly bigger from the 3DS to DS. Main reason.. Nintendo still cuts corners with production values and online features.

Their main problem is that they have been a very conservative publisher. If you want proof, compare the amount of first-party games released in Japan for the Wii/3DS in comparison to international. Just look at Pandora's Tower, Last Story, and XenoBlade Chronicles. Three mid-large scale budget first-party releases in Japan that were almost meant to stay there if Nintendo had their wish.

I have yet to see Nintendo make a Halo 4 or an Uncharted 3. Until then, I will assume they are stifled by limited resources.

 

[nickcv]

What will Nintendo do?

A) Show a bunch of logos for moneyhatted 3rd party games.
B) Show the new Mario Kart, 3D Mario, 3D Zelda, 3D Pokemon, Metroid, Smash Bros, Donkey Kong, Kirby etc.
C) More Wii rehashes -- Wii Sports U, Wii Party U
D) Drop the price by 5,000 yen.
E) All of the above.

my guess is A and a little bit of C

 

[Thoraxes]

There's been a lot of covering of ears and stamping of feet by some on here in a rush to deny the Wii U's launch issues so far.

Seems now you can add a steep plummet in Japanese numbers to its complete market irrelevance and non-performance in Europe. So we're just a dissapointing NPD at the end of this month away from calling this a piss poor launch for Nintendo, right?

I'm just waiting till the next FY to start to make any actual judgement. I can make kneejerk reactions to week-by-week sales, but I don't expect anything significant to be talked about or any action taken till these last quarters end. So probably around March-April we would ideally have a solid idea on what is the actual gameplan.

Is it too long? Yeah, probably. Will there be even greater decay till then? Sure.

These are just my slower expectations.

We'll never find out the truth but I wonder if Nintendo knew they were going to have to ride out a bunch of very rough months like the upcoming ones, or if they genuinely thought this thing would sell a lot and they'd cruise to next holiday.

The optimist in me wants to say it was planned, but in all honesty, I don't think even they anticipated it would be this dry. Something had to have gone wrong somewhere, whether it be 3rd or 1st party.

Pikmin is a good place to start obviously.

 

[Hero]

This is what happens when you have an entire quarter with basically no games being released.

It's mind-boggling that Nintendo thought an expensive console could get away with having barebone releases for 12 weeks after the holiday period ended.

If I knew Pikmin 3 was going to get delayed I would've waited. At least I eagerly anticipate my Ambassador games.

 

[electroplankton]

What will Nintendo do?

A) Show a bunch of logos for moneyhatted 3rd party games.
B) Show the new Mario Kart, 3D Mario, 3D Zelda, 3D Pokemon, Metroid, Smash Bros, Donkey Kong, Kirby etc.
C) More Wii rehashes -- Wii Sports U, Wii Party U
D) Drop the price by 5,000 yen.
E) All of the above.

I think it's reasonable to:
a. anticipate big games without saying too much; just: "Retro is working on the new Star Fox" + logo, and then show it at E3 -> hype rises until June, speculations begin, people talk about the platform, someone could buy it actually.
b. announce release date of Wii Fit U, Pikmin 3, Game & Wario, The Wonderful 101 as soon as possibile -> that would be a good line-up for the first months, along with Rayman Legends, Lego City Undercover, etc.
c. announce Virtual Console.
d. announce HD collection of their GC / Wii games.
I mean, with the minimum effort they could keep Wii alive until the big guns next holiday season.

 

[Branduil]

I don't get why N choose not to go on with the wii mote again, they were leading a whole new audience, with a tech they were known as starters and leaders.

They instead ,have gone again on a complex, hard to use(for a new comer) pad, alienating again the people they catched with the wii mote.


Why spent so much money on a new controller when you have ruled the world with the last one?
Why do not keep the immediacy of your controller and push on the performance of the hardaware?

Now they need to cut the price, this thing to me is doomed if does not start to sell well before the M and S new consoles are released.

In retrospect, a new console with good specs that just used a wiimote+ may have been a much better direction to take. Of course, you know what they say about hindsight.

 

[~ZIO~]

Nintendo is no longer a profitable company. They posted their first ever full-year loss for the year 2011, and they have lost money in every quarter of 2012 so far. The company's stock has lost 83% of its value over the last 5 years. This is not some company sitting on their 'war chest' -- it is a company struggling to succeed.

I doubt Nintendo's situation is THAT dire. They're posting losses after how long of posting profits? Beyond that, how long have other companies posted losses before things took a turn for the worse?

They're definitely hitting a rough patch, no doubt. But years are short and a small part of a company's story. Especially with Nintendo, considering they've ventured into numerous industries in their 100+ year long history.

 

[Portugeezer]

And so it begins.

• Wii U price cut imminent!
• Ambassador program imminent!

 

[Little Green Yoda]

Actually, Nintendo supported greatly both DS and Wii. The problem with Wii was the somehow insane release schedule.

Overall, their first party output was good last gen. But the bulk of their DS output was clearly released before the Wii first party titles started coming out in droves. After that, the DS didn't see too much first party support outside of a few games.

 

[Magicpaint]

In retrospect, a new console with good specs that just used a wiimote+ may have been a much better direction to take. Of course, you know what they say about hindsight.

This is pretty what I expected Nntendo to do but alas! I think the WiiU "tablet" is nowhere near a good enough replacement in its ability to bring truly new and exciting gameplay possibilities (prove me wrong Nintendo!) and it really throws off the progress they were making with motion controls; the controller strikes me as more of a peripheral thing than something that should be the selling point of a new console.

 

[Effect]

And so it begins.

• Wii U price cut imminent!
• Ambassador program imminent!

What good would an ambassador program be when there is seemingly nothing to give and no service where one could expect something to come from.

 

[Baki]

Look, Vita will soon have a friend to play with

Made me laugh more than I should. hahaha

I can't believe Sony mishandled the Vita so badly. They really should have coughed up for Monster Hunter lol.

 

[Father_Brain]

We'll never find out the truth but I wonder if Nintendo knew they were going to have to ride out a bunch of very rough months like the upcoming ones, or if they genuinely thought this thing would sell a lot and they'd cruise to next holiday.

Why not? It's not as though they didn't issue hardware/software projections for the remainder of the fiscal year. They're issuing their results for Q3 in just two weeks; we'll see then.

 

[dragonflys545]

Time to panic Nintendo. Gimme my freaking games.

 

[TreasureHunterG]

What will Nintendo do?

A) Show a bunch of logos for moneyhatted 3rd party games.
B) Show the new Mario Kart, 3D Mario, 3D Zelda, 3D Pokemon, Metroid, Smash Bros, Donkey Kong, Kirby etc.
C) More Wii rehashes -- Wii Sports U, Wii Party U
D) Drop the price by 5,000 yen.
E) All of the above.

1) Change the direction. Iwata's blue ocean and low-cost strategy have reach saturation. He made a mistake by not give Wii the proper hardware power to stay relevant for a long-time strategy and he made the same mistake again with Wii U. Reggie and Shibata are totally away from reality in NA and EU, it's to bring people who actually knows how the business work.

2) Now that the damage has been made, Nintendo needs to keep Wii U alive as long as it can. This time, there's no Wiimote to have it's own market and the controller can't offer this alternative. Iwata already acknowledged the casual focused strategy made for Wii was wrong, so he won't repeat it. The only option now is to bring high quality titles to improve it's userbase and secure a ecosystem in order to third-parties bring their games and Wii U's owners actually buy them.

3) Nintendo needs to fight the constant increasing "Nintendo is only for Nintendo games" stereotype. This is alienating the gaming market and can seriously damage Nintendo as a hardware maker. Unless the company make a serious campaign to counter this, there'll be people buying Wii U just for Nintendo games and third-parties will not stand a chance to sell their games on it.

4) Put Wii U as Nintendo's primary platform for now. Leave 3DS on the side for some time and put all the primary Nintendo development teams to work on it. 3DS sales are steady and Vita is far from being a threat.

That's it.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

What good would an ambassador program be when there is seemingly nothing to give and no service where one could expect something to come from.

They weren't selling NES/GBA games before the 3DS ambassador program was announced--and still aren't selling GBA games.

 

[metalslimer]

Nintendo is leaving room for 3rd party games to sell, thus so few 1st party games in the launch lineup. That is a tactic decision that hasn't quite paid off, and install base critical mass will now become a priority. New Nintendo games should quickly come to the rescue.

lmao, the "Nintendo isn't releasing shit for their console is purposeful" idea is hilarious. Also I completely reject the notion that people on the Wii moved to iPad and mobile. Just take a look at how games like Wii Fit/Sports/Just Dance/ Taiko/etc. continued to sell on the Wii the last few years. If the casual audience has left Nintendo consoles it's because Nintendo abandoned the shit out of them on the Wii. The expanded handheld audience may be gone to mobile but it was not too late for consoles until Nintendo screwed up. If I was one of the people who bought a Wii for Wii Sports and Wii Fit I would never buy another Nintendo console again with how they pretty much abadoned those people after 2009.

 

[AzaK]

Nintendo is leaving room for 3rd party games to sell, thus so few 1st party games in the launch lineup. That is a tactic decision that hasn't quite paid off, and install base critical mass will now become a priority. New Nintendo games should quickly come to the rescue.

As Nintendo always does after the fact they will say they learned their lesson from the lsunch. They will say they should not rely on third parties for launch. They will ignore the fact most third party games were old or bad ports and that Nintendo didn't release a machine able to generate hype.

Basically they will say the opposite of what they said last time, change it for the next time and get into trouble again. Ignoring the real issues of their philosophical problems and blaming it on just 'them' or 'us' (third parties or Nintendo)

1) Change the direction. Iwata's blue ocean and low-cost strategy have reach saturation. He made a mistake by not give Wii the proper hardware power to stay relevant for a long-time strategy and he made the same mistake again with Wii U. Reggie and Shibata are totally away from reality in NA and EU, it's to bring people who actually knows how the business work.

2) Now that the damage has been made, Nintendo needs to keep Wii U alive as long as it can. This time, there's no Wiimote to have it's own market and the controller can't offer this alternative. Iwata already acknowledged the casual focused strategy made for Wii was wrong, so he won't repeat it. The only option now is to bring high quality titles to improve it's userbase and secure a ecosystem in order to third-parties bring their games and Wii U's owners actually buy them.

3) Nintendo needs to fight the constant increasing "Nintendo is only for Nintendo games" stereotype. This is alienating the gaming market and can seriously damage Nintendo as a hardware maker. Unless the company make a serious campaign to counter this, there'll be people buying Wii U just for Nintendo games and third-parties will not stand a chance to sell their games on it.

4) Put Wii U as Nintendo's primary platform for now. Leave 3DS on the side for some time and put all the primary Nintendo development teams to work on it. 3DS sales are steady and Vita is far from being a threat.

That's it.

Well said. I basically agree with all your points. I think they have taken their low cost, low power mission as gospel for too long. With the changing market and their admitted loss of the enthusiast and desire to get them back it's like to opposing desires. Add in no actual games and it makes for a badly managed system.

 

[AOC83]

l Also I completely reject the notion that people on the Wii moved to iPad and mobile. Just take a look at how games like Wii Fit/Sports/Just Dance/ Taiko/etc. continued to sell on the Wii the last few years.

The sales of the casual stuff don´t even come close to the old number nowadays.
So yes the casuals have mostly left for new shores and the WiiU is definitely not the platform that´s going to get them back.

 

[extralite]

lmao, the "Nintendo isn't releasing shit for their console is purposeful" idea is hilarious. Also I completely reject the notion that people on the Wii moved to iPad and mobile. Just take a look at how games like Wii Fit/Sports/Just Dance/ Taiko/etc. continued to sell on the Wii the last few years. If the casual audience has left Nintendo consoles it's because Nintendo abandoned the shit out of them on the Wii. The expanded handheld audience may be gone to mobile but it was not too late for consoles until Nintendo screwed up. If I was one of the people who bought a Wii for Wii Sports and Wii Fit I would never buy another Nintendo console again with how they pretty much abadoned those people after 2009.

The thing is, casuals are fine with one or a few games to play. There was also Wii Party and Go Vacation by Namco after 2009. It's core gamers who were neglected for the longest time. At the end they'd probably only buy a used console to play highlights like Xenoblade and sell it off again, same as with Vita now. I know it happened with GC at the time also.

 

[metalslimer]

The sales of the casual stuff don´t even come close to the old number nowadays.
So yes the casuals have mostly left for new shores and the WiiU is definitely not the platform that´s going to get them back.

The Just Dance Series says otherwise.

The thing is, casuals are fine with one or a few games to play.

Is there any evidence at all of this or is it just another one of those casual gamers barely play anything at all. And yes I'm using the ridiculous new meaning for the word casual gamer.

 

[AOC83]

The Just Dance Series says otherwise.

That´s one series against multiple back in the day.

 

[metalslimer]

That´s one series against multiple back in the day.

What big series did Nintendo release on the Wii recently? This argument goes the complete opposite direction of what actually happened. The expanded audience didn't abandon the Wii. Nintendo abandoned them.

 

[Bob White]

F-Zero would probably be much cheaper than Dragon quest and it'd sell some systems in the West.

An F-Zero made by the disbanded SCE Studio Liverpool/Wipeout team would be something I'd buy a Wii U for.

But Nintendo...

 

[extralite]

The Just Dance Series says otherwise.

Which was released by Nintendo after 2009 btw.

Is there any evidence at all of this or is it just another one of those casual gamers barely play anything at all. And yes I'm using the ridiculous new meaning for the word casual gamer.

You can play Wii Sports and Resort over and over forever. Same with Wii Fit or Brain Training. They're not games you beat and then move on to the next core game.

Also as already pointed out by lunchwithyouzo, casual titles kept selling even though they appeared in small numbers over the years. You yourself have given such an example with JD. Meaning casual gamers didn't sell their Wii but bought one or two titles per year when they came out.

The Wii appealing to families and not just their kids was due to these new expanded audience titles aimed at adults. The sales beyond that were likely mostly generated by titles bought for kids I'd gather. It helps to sell more titles if the platform is in more households which they managed with those 'non-games' but the adult core gamers gave up on the Wii as indicated by higher core game sales on the less popular PS3.

It's not proof of course but the nature of the casual gaming style itself results in fewer games needed to fill your quota as a casual gamer.

 

[AOC83]

What big series did Nintendo release on the Wii recently? This argument goes the complete opposite direction of what actually happened. The expanded audience didn't abandon the Wii. Nintendo abandoned them.

Probably a mixture of both. But does that really matter? The casuals are not buying Nintendos new hardware, they won´t care about Wii Fit U , Just Dance U or Nintendoland. If they wan´t to play one of these games they can do that on their Wii (Nintendoland aside).
They don´t care about graphics so they don´t need any expensive upgrades.

 

[extralite]

What big series did Nintendo release on the Wii recently? This argument goes the complete opposite direction of what actually happened. The expanded audience didn't abandon the Wii. Nintendo abandoned them.

New Brain Training. But I agree, most of the presumed failures of expanded audience titles on next gen hardware would still have to occur. I think Wii Fit U will take a hit but not as badly as Brain Training. I actually expect Wii Sports U to be a system seller.

Edit: I think AC is more of a casual title than DQX (which requires a monthly fee to play) and I don't see why Friend Collection wouldn't sell as well as on DS either. Basically AC proves that singular games like AC can still be as successful as before. Also the 3DS OS has many nice features for fans of expanded audience style games. Street pass quest being a prime example.

 

[metalslimer]

Isn't around 2 games a year normal for many people? But anyway, the concept of whether Nintendo abandoned casual gamers vs them leaving is important, not because it makes a difference for Wii U right now but because it shows how Nintendo completely screwed up the end of the Wii life cycle and transition.

New Brain Training

That's not a Wii game. I've already said I think the mobile expanded audience has moved on. Like I said, with the way Nintendo abandoned the expanded audience on the Wii, I wouldn't expect many people to be eager to jump into wii u with wii fit or wii sports.

 

[Laguna]

The hyperbole in this thread is hilarious.

An F-Zero made by the disbanded SCE Studio Liverpool/Wipeout team would be something I'd buy a Wii U for.

But Nintendo...

I wouldn´t, they were shut down for a reason.

 

[Lord_Byron28]

Pouring one out for my homies. RIP Wii U and Vita we hardly knew thee.

 

[AOC83]

Isn't around 2 games a year normal for many people? But anyway, the concept of whether Nintendo abandoned casual gamers vs them leaving is important, not because it makes a difference for Wii U right now but because it shows how Nintendo completely screwed up the end of the Wii life cycle and transition.

I think we can all agree on that. Nintendo completely dropped the ball.

 

[smbu2000]

(mentioned in previous thread)

Fantasy Life not charting on MC, but did on Famitsu. The game has a download version, but no download cards to buy in stores, what gives?

Vita's drop was expected, Wii U's has surprised me. Hopefully Nintendo understands that there's no more life left in the launch lineup to attract people in droves. They got games in development, it's just a matter of when they want to show them.

(will post more later)

Yes, very strange. I take it L5 got pretty much zero stock into the channel. I wonder if it could have a Run for Money (Tousouchuu) like boost once they do get more stock out there?

 

[TreasureHunterG]

An F-Zero made by the disbanded SCE Studio Liverpool/Wipeout team would be something I'd buy a Wii U for.

But Nintendo...

If Miyamoto leave his general manager position, there'll be hope we can see not only F-Zero, but many other forgotten Nintendo IPs.

 

[DR2K]

"Standard"



A stream of games that won't sell any systems. It probably will happen Souls Sacrifice/ToH week though

A stream of games will sell systems in the long run. Of course major hitters are need for major spikes and bumps. SS could be the game that opens the flood gates, but we'll see.

 

[jeremy1456]

According to MC, Vita sold around 18.300 units in Week 2, 2012. So, Wii U is almost doing Vita numbers despite a 2D Mario at launch. Horrible.

You're manipulating numbers a bit here.

That was week 3 for the Vita. This is Week 4 for Wii U.

It's not a huge deal, but for comparison Week 3 of the Wii U was over 60k so the Wii U is doing better at this point.