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Sales-Age Media Create Sales: Week 20, 2017 (May 15 - May 21)

Busaiku

Member
Apr 5, 2006
46,931
1
0
Well we're going to have to agree to disagree on the details, but the point is that Lyn is beloved worldwide.
Right, I'm not saying that, or that she's unpopular in Japan.
My point was though, Lyn doesn't make up for a lack of Chrom/Camilla level characters.
 

thestopsign

Member
Jun 2, 2005
7,839
2
1,325
So based on FT article the Switch could be around 20 million by March 2018, how could this be distributed WW?

NA: 8 million
EU and ROTW: 7 million
Japan: 6 million


If Switch sell around 6 million by March 2018 in Japan I think a lot of my expectations about the Switch will come to fruition and a lot of people on these threads where we have debated these different things might have to eat some crow:

- Splatoon 2 being a top 10 selling game in Japan of all time isn't some crazy pie in sky noshtenism™
- Minecraft would surely be a million seller by the end of 2017 and I'm not suffering from some type of fever I honestly expect it to be one of the best performing 3rd party game on the Switch during it's lifetime.
- Zelda will surely be well above 1 million units sold by the end of 2017 so some people might need to take their L

Noshten, we have talked about this. Even if Zelda does end up over a million, my prediction for the year on it will STILL be closer than yours. If you want to hold that one over me cool but please back off on "take the L" type taunting that is uncalled for.
 

Passose

Banned
Apr 9, 2017
1,218
0
0
Says the user with by far the most posts in this thread...
I wrote that comment when it was like 4:30AM in the US lol


Edit: just realized the MC thread just turned into another chapter, now we have Sony desperately for Japan, Fire Emblem Waifu Wars, Arms becoming the next splatoon, MHXX causing more fanboy meltdowns, nintendo fans starting to believe the MH5 ps4 exclusive rumors and more :p
 

Datschge

Member
Sep 23, 2006
5,149
0
1,150
I wrote that comment when it was like 4:30AM in the US lol
I know, it's just that you are like the interchanging background color of a long listing, your posts are everywhere! Your post count is more than double of the next highest user, and to be honest, the quality of your posts shows.
 

Passose

Banned
Apr 9, 2017
1,218
0
0
I know, it's just that you are like the interchanging background color of a long listing, your posts are everywhere! Your post count is more than double of the next highest user, and to be honest, the quality of your posts shows.
erm....... but Is writing too many comments a bad thing to do? Should I write less comments or stop writing or something?
 

cw_sasuke

If all DLC came tied to $13 figurines, I'd consider all DLC to be free
Sep 9, 2006
27,409
3
0
Preorders for MHXX in Japan are expected to open sometime today (for amazon so nationwide).

The Switch announcement should help the 3DS game as well - being able to play with Switch owners and transfer saves to the Switch version is a Vote of confidence for everyone who wasnt sure about getting another 3DS game. Get the game now and hit the ground running once the Switch version drops.

Most interested players will just wait for the Switch version though.
 

noshten

Member
Oct 20, 2014
4,086
419
505
Sofia
There is still no confirmation that Nintendo will actually be able to ship that much so I'm taking any such articles with a huge grain of salt. I think you're probably being a little generous with how much Japan is likely to receive in such a situation (but it's really hard to say).

In terms of splatoon 2 sales let's not pretend no one else is predicted big numbers. Plenty of people are suggesting it'll see a MH like breakout and sell as much as 4-5 million. There is still a world of difference between that and 6+ million. I won't say it's impossible but even on the DS that was a number almost impossible to reach for any game.

We are talking around 5 million for 2017, which would be a 1 million more than 3DS shipped in its first year. Switch is poised to do better than the 3DS as long as Nintendo can ship 4.5 million or more to Japan for 2017.

I think that by the end of the year Splatoon 2 will have above 80% attach rate on the Switch so if there is 5 million Switches sold in Japan - Splatoon 2 will be above 4 million. I expect Splatoon 2 to be bundled for the summer vacation but after that for Nintendo to release limited time bundles for other games. This will make new Switch owners pay for two/three games instead of one at purchase. Themed limited time bundles for MHXX, DQXI, Super Mario Odyssey and other launch year games like Arms, MK8D, BotW etc. New owners would have to purchase a bundle with Splatoon 2 on top of it and I think the 3rd game majority of new owners will be buy will be Minecraft.
This is entirely based on what we saw from Nintendo on the Wii U, since the launch of SMM Nintendo was pushing SMM bundle. They sold a million of that game on the Wii U precisely because that was the only way to purchase Splatoon. Virtually every week we'd see Splatoon aligned with Wii U sales, until I believe Feb 2016 when the Splatoon Wii U bundle was launched(at the highest price for a Wii U bundle since the Wii U launch).
The only game in a similar situation is Minecraft which we've seen mirror HW sales on two devices in Japan - Vita and Wii U - hence Minecraft would be one of the main beneficiaries of the new system in Japan. It was an extremely smart move for Microsoft to have MC ready so soon on the Switch. I think there should be no doubt that Minecraft will end up as one of the best selling games on the Switch as well. Potentially it could be the first Western game to have over 4 million sales in Japan on a single platform.

Noshten, we have talked about this. Even if Zelda does end up over a million, my prediction for the year on it will STILL be closer than yours. If you want to hold that one over me cool but please back off on "take the L" type taunting that is uncalled for.

Sorry wasn't anything personal but you did state in that post strongly though Zelda would have no chance to sell more than a million. I still think 1.5 million for Zelda in 2017 is doable. Zelda sales have not considerably slowed down and 1 in 4 or 1 in 6 attach rate on the Switch for the rest of 2017 is entirely possible. If Switch sales are around 5 million for 2017 that would mean that:
- 1 in 4 attach rate would mean around 1 million additional sales for Zelda leading to 1.5 million copies of BotW sold.
- 1 in 6 attach rate would lead to around 666K more sales which would lead to 1.16 million sales on the Switch alone

While there is also a Wii U verision that currently sits at 100K

You prediction for [NSW + WIU]Zelda was 620K in order for you to be closer [NSW + WIU]Zelda needs to finish under 1.1 million for the year which means that less than 16% attach rate for 2017.
 

ggx2ac

Member
Apr 5, 2016
7,164
1
370

ggx2ac

Member
Apr 5, 2016
7,164
1
370
Shovel Knight launches 30th of May in Japan on the Switch eShop.


https://twitter.com/YachtClubJP/status/869109730777616385
 

casiopao

Member
Jan 27, 2013
7,639
0
440
Thankfully, it looks like the second weekend of the ARMS testpunch won't be the same as the first.

These two modes will appear:

https://twitter.com/ARMS_Cobutter/status/869139348893048834

https://twitter.com/ARMS_Cobutter/status/869139660336898048

Don't really know if it will help any further in getting sales aside from people that haven't played the testpunch yet since as I said, impressions really wouldn't change for most people after the first weekend.

While i can see the Testpunch selling the game, it will need more great WoM from Japan Nico Nico character player there.^^ I mean, when Splatoon craze start, there is even video where people actually tried to replicate the splatoon gun in Japan while Arms.... i feel had hard time to do those thing lol.^^
 

Fisico

Member
Jul 9, 2012
2,539
0
575
Japan
twitter.com
Switch and Splatoon success

Somehow your posts now kinda reminds me Ryng_Tolu and how he was bullish on his Splatoon predictions.

He did end up being right (more than everyone else here at least), but I still feel like your prediction are on a whole other level (but you did tone it down from the initial 10M number I remember reading)

We do know Switch is doing well, but we have yet to see at which point supply will meet demand (who can pretend to know where is this point? Nintendo maybe, but even that is not sure), and we have yet to see how many Switch Nintendo will be able to ship in Japan for 2017.

Your enthusiasm is appreciated and I don't think anyone here wouldn't want the Switch to be a mega success, but it's still super early to be able to predict a milestone (5M) a hardware wasn't able to achieve in Japan for a decade since the DS in a much more favorable market, Switch is also still a rather expensive piece of hardware which makes it something not every children could afford.
4M for 2017 would already be a nice achievement and something that is still not 100% locked at this point.
 

cw_sasuke

If all DLC came tied to $13 figurines, I'd consider all DLC to be free
Sep 9, 2006
27,409
3
0
Switch hasnt cracked a million hardware sales yet...so a new IP wont just casually be able to have a 150-200fw. Positive word of mouth, content updates and high Switch hardware sales over the years could result in rather solid lifetime sales for ARMS...but it wont outsell most fighting games lifetime sales in its first week.
 

L~A

Member
Jan 19, 2013
12,188
0
610
I've been thinking, since Sony (and Microsoft, but irrelevant here) has apparently been sharing PSN sales data with the NPD. I wonder if Famitsu is also going to get them, and if yes, if they'll share them publicly.

Speaking of digital games, casiopao's GOAT, Sabaku no Nezumi-dan, is releasing this week in NA / next week in EU as "Of Mice and Sand" ;)
 

Fdkn

Member
Jul 20, 2011
2,872
0
0
I've been thinking, since Sony (and Microsoft, but irrelevant here) has apparently been sharing PSN sales data with the NPD. I wonder if Famitsu is also going to get them, and if yes, if they'll share them publicly.

They should give them to Media Create so we can see the difference with Famitsu polls
 

casiopao

Member
Jan 27, 2013
7,639
0
440
Switch hasnt cracked a million hardware sales yet...so a new IP wont just casually be able to have a 150-200fw. Positive word of mouth, content updates and high Switch hardware sales over the years could result in rather solid lifetime sales for ARMS...but it wont outsell most fighting games lifetime sales in its first week.

ARMS release date is still quite far and Switch right now is already around 850k+ number. doing around 10% for its adoption rate does not feel impossible for me here.

I've been thinking, since Sony (and Microsoft, but irrelevant here) has apparently been sharing PSN sales data with the NPD. I wonder if Famitsu is also going to get them, and if yes, if they'll share them publicly.

Speaking of digital games, casiopao's GOAT, Sabaku no Nezumi-dan, is releasing this week in NA / next week in EU as "Of Mice and Sand" ;)

Ohhh yeah baby.^^ And here i thought after Drancia Saga being localized and zero news of the great mouse, it will be forgotten.T_T But it seems it is still being remembered here.^^
 

theprodigy

Member
Aug 25, 2013
24,331
0
0
Well we're going to have to agree to disagree on the details, but the point is that Lyn is beloved worldwide.

Poll results or not, I would bet money that Lucina is more popular, a lot of those 3DS votes going to other characters would come back to her.
 
Aug 30, 2007
14,208
0
0
We are talking around 5 million for 2017, which would be a 1 million more than 3DS shipped in its first year. Switch is poised to do better than the 3DS as long as Nintendo can ship 4.5 million or more to Japan for 2017.

I think that by the end of the year Splatoon 2 will have above 80% attach rate on the Switch so if there is 5 million Switches sold in Japan - Splatoon 2 will be above 4 million. I expect Splatoon 2 to be bundled for the summer vacation but after that for Nintendo to release limited time bundles for other games. This will make new Switch owners pay for two/three games instead of one at purchase. Themed limited time bundles for MHXX, DQXI, Super Mario Odyssey and other launch year games like Arms, MK8D, BotW etc. New owners would have to purchase a bundle with Splatoon 2 on top of it and I think the 3rd game majority of new owners will be buy will be Minecraft.
This is entirely based on what we saw from Nintendo on the Wii U, since the launch of SMM Nintendo was pushing SMM bundle. They sold a million of that game on the Wii U precisely because that was the only way to purchase Splatoon. Virtually every week we'd see Splatoon aligned with Wii U sales, until I believe Feb 2016 when the Splatoon Wii U bundle was launched(at the highest price for a Wii U bundle since the Wii U launch).
The only game in a similar situation is Minecraft which we've seen mirror HW sales on two devices in Japan - Vita and Wii U - hence Minecraft would be one of the main beneficiaries of the new system in Japan. It was an extremely smart move for Microsoft to have MC ready so soon on the Switch. I think there should be no doubt that Minecraft will end up as one of the best selling games on the Switch as well. Potentially it could be the first Western game to have over 4 million sales in Japan on a single platform.



Sorry wasn't anything personal but you did state in that post strongly though Zelda would have no chance to sell more than a million. I still think 1.5 million for Zelda in 2017 is doable. Zelda sales have not considerably slowed down and 1 in 4 or 1 in 6 attach rate on the Switch for the rest of 2017 is entirely possible. If Switch sales are around 5 million for 2017 that would mean that:
- 1 in 4 attach rate would mean around 1 million additional sales for Zelda leading to 1.5 million copies of BotW sold.
- 1 in 6 attach rate would lead to around 666K more sales which would lead to 1.16 million sales on the Switch alone

While there is also a Wii U verision that currently sits at 100K

You prediction for [NSW + WIU]Zelda was 620K in order for you to be closer [NSW + WIU]Zelda needs to finish under 1.1 million for the year which means that less than 16% attach rate for 2017.

You ignored the first part of my post. As of right now Nintendo increasing supply is just rumours. Their official estimate for the FY is 10 million and so far supply hasn't increased (it seems to have gone backwards). I think it's very likely that we will see supply increase dramatically and I also think the 10 million will end up being very conservative.

However you can't simply take that 20 million by March next year as gospel. More importantly you're making up the shipments for Japan. Even if that number turns out true that doesn't necessarily mean that Japan will get 6 million if that including 5 this year. That would be better than even the most optimistic prediction and you're using that as the basis for your numbers.

As for splatoon 2 your numbers still seem incredibly ambitious. Even if the switch reaches those lofty heights an 80% attach rate would be unheard for an install base that large.

4 million for minecraft lifetime and 1.5 million for Zelda this year would be monstrous performances. I don't think even the most optimistic predictions come close to that.
 

jnWake

Member
Mar 30, 2013
4,440
1
0
I'm surprised at ARMS predictions even going as far as 200k. I'd like the game to be a success but is there anything actually hinting at such a strong performance? Besides it being a game by Nintendo and MK devs I mean.
 

Boy Wander

Member
Oct 20, 2012
3,346
83
585
How much did Splatoon debut with on Wii U and what kind of first week sales can we expect for Splatoon 2? As far as ARMS is concerned , I think Nintendo would be happy with an 80-100k opening. That's a good debut for the time of year and means it will likely do well over 500k in Japan alone.
 

Passose

Banned
Apr 9, 2017
1,218
0
0
How much did Splatoon debut with on Wii U and what kind of first week sales can we expect for Splatoon 2? As far as ARMS is concerned , I think Nintendo would be happy with an 80-100k opening. That's a good debut for the time of year and means it will likely do well over 500k in Japan alone.
about 92k+ if I remember correctly
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Dec 17, 2008
11,738
0
0
Splatoon 2 opening will be way closer to 1m than 500k. Maybe it can top 1m if Nintendo ships respectable amounts the weeks close to its release.
 

noshten

Member
Oct 20, 2014
4,086
419
505
Sofia
Somehow your posts now kinda reminds me Ryng_Tolu and how he was bullish on his Splatoon predictions.

He did end up being right (more than everyone else here at least), but I still feel like your prediction are on a whole other level (but you did tone it down from the initial 10M number I remember reading)

We do know Switch is doing well, but we have yet to see at which point supply will meet demand (who can pretend to know where is this point? Nintendo maybe, but even that is not sure), and we have yet to see how many Switch Nintendo will be able to ship in Japan for 2017.

Your enthusiasm is appreciated and I don't think anyone here wouldn't want the Switch to be a mega success, but it's still super early to be able to predict a milestone (5M) a hardware wasn't able to achieve in Japan for a decade since the DS in a much more favorable market, Switch is also still a rather expensive piece of hardware which makes it something not every children could afford.
4M for 2017 would already be a nice achievement and something that is still not 100% locked at this point.

Ryng is the user that had the most similar predictions to me for the original Splatoon launch.

You remember a prediction that was based on entirely untrue price point and bundle with an enhanced Splatoon port. We are talking about a period before the reveal when nobody was sure about the price and $200 was floated around as a possibility. I made several different prediction based on the price. I have a post from 2016 with the reasoning behind such a prediction

I also think 4 million is a lock and a minimum for the Switch this year and that as far as lineups are concerned Switch is better during it's first year than both 3DS and Wii U combined with a far more attractive form factor than either. Also price won't be as much of a factor as you seem to think considering both those things I've outlined above and also more importantly a point I made a while back regarding the viral nature and nag factor of Nintendo Switch.

I think we are really missing a major component of the Switch, previously kids had no way to share their 3DS with a friend. Now even the individual joycons provide that option and I think a lot of games aimed at younger kids will have an easy to implement control scheme for local 2/4 player games on the go. The fact that the joycons have 20 hour battery life is also pretty impressive from my point of view. The actual technology of the things can be utilized for a lot of different game concepts. I think once a kid gets the joycon in his possession while playing with a friend outside the whole situation changes. This is clearly a a function of the device best experienced by kids - the size of the tablet ensures it. It might not be a comfortable experience for 30 year old man but for a couple of 10 year old's it would be amazing. The nag factor is going to be unbearable for some parents once this thing is out - especially in Japan. Being able to give it to multiple kids to enjoy and the expansive parental controls does talk about the underlining goal of the device and that's largely to be an entertainment device for multiple people in a household. Meaning long term you might have a few Switches laying around if you have a couple of kids.

People downplay nag factor but it's a thing that happens and kids are definitely the biggest part of the equation for Nintendo when designing the Switch.


You ignored the first part of my post. As of right now Nintendo increasing supply is just rumours. Their official estimate for the FY is 10 million and so far supply hasn't increased (it seems to have gone backwards). I think it's very likely that we will see supply increase dramatically and I also think the 10 million will end up being very conservative.

However you can't simply take that 20 million by March next year as gospel. More importantly you're making up the shipments for Japan. Even if that number turns out true that doesn't necessarily mean that Japan will get 6 million if that including 5 this year. That would be better than even the most optimistic prediction and you're using that as the basis for your numbers.

As for splatoon 2 your numbers still seem incredibly ambitious. Even if the switch reaches those lofty heights an 80% attach rate would be unheard for an install base that large.

4 million for minecraft lifetime and 1.5 million for Zelda this year would be monstrous performances. I don't think even the most optimistic predictions come close to that.

I used 5 million because it's a nice round figure but 4.5 million which is what I predicted for the year would be equally impressive. 5 million is just in case 20 million does turn out to be a correct figure. I don't see why you think they'd need to ship more than a million after new year when it's generally a slow period. It's more of a matter of stocking up for December when Nintendo has the strongest sales period of the year.

You've seen Zelda launch in the West with over 100% attach rate, personally I think Splatoon 2 is going to replicate this performance. It's basically the biggest thing in video gaming in Japan this year. The difference between Zelda's performance in the West and Splatoon 2, will be the major eSport push Nintendo is going to give it, the concerts, the merchandise that will flood Japan while the devs continue to update it and make big events around these updates that get more people interested. I expect December to also be a month during which Splatoon 2 has a close to 100% attach rate. To me it's basically guaranteed to be the biggest game on the Switch obviously I'm more bullish on Splatoon than majority of forum posters but I think my prediction will end up being one of the closest ones for Splatoon 2.
As I've said previously I think the Switch will be more front-loaded than the 3DS but also more successful in Japan and the West. So overall if Splatoon turns out to be as popular as I expect it to be - I think it could be above 7 million by the end of 2018.

Minecraft to me is one of the biggest games on the Switch and I think if it was on the 3DS it would have done similar numbers, it's just a matter of the Switch user base growing quickly enough. Once the Switch is above 15 million, Minecraft would probably be between 3-4 million and that's me being conservative.
Zelda is at 500K with an attach rate of >50% for 875K consoles sold. I just don't see how it doesn't at least get 20% attach rate for the rest year. People act like Zelda doesn't have the potential to have the typical evergreen legs and sell years after it's release - personally I think it has the Legs and it will flex it. Even in Japan it's weakest market.
 

Lostconfused

Member
Apr 26, 2007
16,165
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0
www.neogaf.com
I think media create has a sizable blind spot for franchises/IP that have a life outside of regular console releases or for series that had a significant difference between releases.

I feel like there is a pretty good chance that Tekken 7 sales will be a surprise to majority of the posters here.
 

casiopao

Member
Jan 27, 2013
7,639
0
440
I think media create has a sizable blind spot for franchises/IP that have a life outside of regular console releases or for series that had a significant difference between releases.

I feel like there is a pretty good chance that Tekken 7 sales will be a surprise to majority of the posters here.

Worldwide sure that is a possibilities like Asia probably would carry the series sales there.

But in Japan, i don't think so when YSO had even come out with 70k FW sales number there which is another decline.
 

Principate

Saint Titanfall
Dec 17, 2011
16,590
0
570
I think media create has a sizable blind spot for franchises/IP that have a life outside of regular console releases or for series that had a significant difference between releases.

I feel like there is a pretty good chance that Tekken 7 sales will be a surprise to majority of the posters here.
Honestly I'm not sure. It's not really that everyone here expects it to substantially under perform (at least globally if not in Japan) frankly from my personal perspective quite the opposite. More that what little data we do have as incredibly flawed as it is, isn't very reassuring. It may not be a flop but a great success is seeming less likely.

If it does well then it'd honestly be I what I expected it to do before this stuff came in and I think that's true for a fair few others which is why this talk is a surprise rather than an expectation.
 
How does Killer Instinct do for MS? Is it potentially more profitable than SFV?
It had over six million total users (it's f2p), and Season 3 was the most successful yet, so given the shoestring budget, it's not impossible it made more profit than Street Fighter V.

Capcom was implying that Street Fighter V cost them a lot to make despite the content issues due to the amount of detail and how many more people it took to make everything, and sold very little despite big discounts. Also they were primarily Western sales, so retailer rebates have a big impact with price cuts.

For Tekken, that game is popular in a lot of "rest of world" territories, plus the arcade revenue, so I'd be more surprised on that front even though I expect it to underperform.
 

Sandfox

Member
Jan 25, 2012
22,624
0
0
It had over six million total users (it's f2p), and Season 3 was the most successful yet, so given the shoestring budget, it's not impossible it made more profit than Street Fighter V.

Capcom was implying that Street Fighter V cost them a lot to make despite the content issues due to the amount of detail and how many more people it took to make everything, and sold very little despite big discounts. Also they were primarily Western sales, so retailer rebates have a big impact with price cuts.

For Tekken, that game is popular in a lot of "rest of world" territories, plus the arcade revenue, so I'd be more surprised on that front even though I expect it to underperform.
SFV not having an arcade version was a huge mistake.
 

Skullwaker

Member
Dec 3, 2015
629
0
250
Texas
That's massive for a console title isn't it? Especially a console that hasn't yet hit a million sales in JP.

I mean, to be fair, it's also a handheld title, which is a big part of why it should do much better than even the original Splatoon (which was handicapped by the Wii U).

But yeah, 600-900k would be a fantastic result FW, especially considering that's about half of what Splatoon sold LT (and much more than it sold FW).