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Sales-Age Media Create Sales: Week 20, 2017 (May 15 - May 21)

Rakuten Books Pre-Orders Ranking (2018.05.29)

01./01. [PS4] Dragon Quest XI: In Search of Departed Time <RPG> (Square Enix)
02./02. [NSW] Splatoon 2 <ACT> (Nintendo)
03./03. [3DS] Dragon Quest XI: In Search of Departed Time <RPG> (Square Enix)
04./04. [PS4] Tekken 7 <FTG> (Bandai Namco)
05./00. [NSW] Monster Hunter Double Cross <ACT> (Capcom)
 

Vinnk

Member
Mar 10, 2006
3,203
0
0
Japan
www.famicomdojo.tv
I think that by the end of the year Splatoon 2 will have above 80% attach rate on the Switch so if there is 5 million Switches sold in Japan - Splatoon 2 will be above 4 million.

Now I am pretty bullish on Splatoon. It is indeed a cultural phenomenon over here in Japan. Loved by kids and adults.

Even then, 80% seems crazy high. Unprecedented in fact.

There are occasional launch titles that, for a time hit, an 80% attach rate. Zelda in the US is a recent example. Wii Sports in Japan (which wasn't bundled) is another.

But as far as I know (and correct me if I am wrong), there has never been a title released outside of the launch window that has come close to an 80% attach.

Franchises that couldn't do it:

Pokemon
Dragon Quest
Final Fantasy
Smash Brothers
Mario Kart
Grad Theft Auto
Minecraft (The biggest Vita game by far and the title keeping the system going has far less than a 50% attach rate. Closer to 25%)
Halo
Sonic

Mario

The only titles to achieve 80% were launch titles.

So Splatoon 2 would be doing something no game in history has ever achieved.

And if they can I would be super happy. Splatoon deserves all the success it can get. But I just can't get behind that attach rate.
 

Busaiku

Member
Apr 5, 2006
46,931
1
0
The difference between those and Splatoon 2 is that they all released well into the system's,life.
80% attach rate on 10 million+ is ludicrous.
80% for under 2 million isn't so crazy.
 

casiopao

Member
Jan 27, 2013
7,639
0
440
80% attach rate during its early release time does not seem impossible here. As in the end, as more switch is out on the wild the number will drop bit by bit.
 

Vinnk

Member
Mar 10, 2006
3,203
0
0
Japan
www.famicomdojo.tv
The difference between those and Splatoon 2 is that they all released well into the system's,life.
80% attach rate on 10 million+ is ludicrous.
80% for under 2 million isn't so crazy.

80% on 2 million is indeed more possible. But it has still never been done.

Also the 80% was brought up with this quote:

I think that by the end of the year Splatoon 2 will have above 80% attach rate on the Switch so if there is 5 million Switches sold in Japan - Splatoon 2 will be above 4 million.

He is saying by the end of the year and is talking about numbers bigger than 2 million.

I am still going with unprecedented. But if anyone has a counter example I will concede my point.
 

ZSaberLink

Media Create Maven
Jul 29, 2010
4,429
247
1,040
80% on 2 million is indeed more possible. But it has still never been done.

Also the 80% was brought up with this quote:



He is saying by the end of the year and is talking about numbers bigger than 2 million.

I am still going with unprecedented. But if anyone has a counter example I will concede my point.
That's why most of us totally disagree with noshten's insane optimism. He's expecting something that's never happened before to happen in a market where dedicated devices have never been weaker. It's a pipe dream. I think Splatoon 2 will do very well given all the circumstances though, just not the record breaking levels noshten predicts.
 

thestopsign

Member
Jun 2, 2005
7,839
2
1,325
That's why most of us totally disagree with noshten's insane optimism. He's expecting something that's never happened before to happen in a market where dedicated devices have never been weaker. It's a pipe dream. I think Splatoon 2 will do very well given all the circumstances though, just not the record breaking levels noshten predicts.

I even pointed out that only two games have ever sold over 4 million in a year and both of them were on the DS in Dragon Quest IX and Pokemon Black and White and were also released considerably later in the system's life span.
 

casiopao

Member
Jan 27, 2013
7,639
0
440
Well each person is allowed for their own prediction lol. If it actually hit that mark, it will mean he is a much better predictor than most MC guys lol.
 

Vinnk

Member
Mar 10, 2006
3,203
0
0
Japan
www.famicomdojo.tv
Well each person is allowed for their own prediction lol. If it actually hit that mark, it will mean he is a much better predictor than most MC guys lol.

If it actually hits the mark it would be an outlier in the history of sales trends.
It would means not just that the MC guys are wrong but also that common sales logic doesn't apply when it comes to this game.

Could it happen? I guess anything is possible...

And everyone is totally allowed to have their opinion. But what I am saying is it has never happened before. Not even close. And as much as I adore Splatoon, which will be a HUGE game, I just don't see it happening now.
 

thestopsign

Member
Jun 2, 2005
7,839
2
1,325
If it actually hits the mark it would be an outlier in the history of sales trends.
It would means not just that the MC guys are wrong but also that common sales logic doesn't apply when it comes to this game.

Could it happen? I guess anything is possible...

And everyone is totally allowed to have their opinion. But what I am saying is it has never happened before. Not even close. And as much as I adore Splatoon, which will be a HUGE game, I just don't see it happening now.

This sums up my position on this and most of Noshten's predictions as a whole. They could be right, it would just have to be a historically good year. Like the rest of the year has to be DS 2006 type crazy, which I don't think there will be supplies for.
 

Jon Carter

Member
Jul 14, 2015
2,726
0
0
A couple is exactly 2. Just wanted to get that cleared up.

No, it is not. Saying "a couple" is a way to say 2-3 almost all the time. It's often a way to not commit to 2 or when you can't remember or don't know exactly. Otherwise, people would just say "two" rather than "a couple".
 

Mory Dunz

Member
Jun 12, 2012
14,205
0
0
No, it is not. Saying "a couple" is a way to say 2-3 almost all the time. It's often a way to not commit to 2 or when you can't remember or don't know exactly. Otherwise, people would just say "two" rather than "a couple".

just like people never say dozen and just say twelve right?
couple is two.

....what's this convo about anyway? >_>
 

Jon Carter

Member
Jul 14, 2015
2,726
0
0
we're here, learning how to count, in a sales thread :p

Yeah, it's silly but that Switch/Xbox One argument only happened because "a few" was understood as meaning "exactly three" when, just like "a couple", that's not how those words are used in real life. So, for future reference, if I or the majority of people here say "X game should pass Y units sold in a couple of weeks" or "a few weeks", we won't literally mean two and three, respectively. They are mostly used to define a range.

Your link itself says that in "informal use" it can me 2 or more, but that its formal (and proper) use means exactly two.

Informal means in spoken language, that means not in written form.

I guess we'll also disagree on the meaning of the word "informal" then.
 

ZSaberLink

Media Create Maven
Jul 29, 2010
4,429
247
1,040
Btw, apart from Dragon Quest XI, and hopefully Tekken 7, what 100K+ titles are we expecting on PS4 in the remainder of this year? FF12 and Western titles (CoD, Battlefield, Destiny 2)?
 
ß

ßig

Unconfirmed Member
Btw, apart from Dragon Quest XI, and hopefully Tekken 7, what 100K+ titles are we expecting on PS4 in the remainder of this year? FF12 and Western titles (CoD, Battlefield, Destiny 2)?

those and
Gundam Versus (7/6)
Dragon Quest X Online (8/17)
New Hot Shots Golf (8/31)
Winning Eleven 2018
Gran Turismo Sport
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Dec 17, 2008
11,738
0
0
80% on 2 million is indeed more possible. But it has still never been done.

Also the 80% was brought up with this quote:

He is saying by the end of the year and is talking about numbers bigger than 2 million.

I am still going with unprecedented. But if anyone has a counter example I will concede my point.

4m YTD on a 5m install base is simply not happening. We would talk for a 10m+ Splatoon 2 LTD in that case. 3m and it would still require huge holiday sales.
 

LOCK

Member
Jun 26, 2006
6,265
0
0
In a Dream
I think Splatoon will do 2 million this year. 1 million in a few weeks and leg the way to holidays to get to 2 million. I see a LTD maybe at 3 million. Anything more than that depends on if the Switch acts like a Wii or a DS.

ARMS is a new IP and of course it's an untested product, same as was Splatoon, but in all likelihood it's going to sell maybe a few 100k. 300k max, imo. Splatoon took on the competitive shooter and made it "accessible" to the Japanese, so for all intents and purposes many of those players are probably new to the shooter genre. Can't really say the same about competitive fighters, with many brands, and the "newness" of ARMS to people.

In the end we'll find out.
 

Mr. Pointy

Member
Mar 12, 2006
12,141
0
0
Best case attach rate scenario for Splatoon 2 will probably be 60-65%. At least for the first 18 months or so.

I do think if Nintendo ship 1 million copies for launch, they could probably sell through all of them that week.
 

cw_sasuke

If all DLC came tied to $13 figurines, I'd consider all DLC to be free
Sep 9, 2006
27,409
3
0
Yeah, its not like SE delayed those games out of spite...if some of their big 2018 and beyond titles like KH3 hit Switch as well, they will be day and date with the other versions as well.
 

KtSlime

Member
Feb 28, 2009
9,062
2
0
Tokyo
I don't get why people think the other delays are odd. We're talking about games that were in development for years, and had to be downported late in the cycle.

If it was considered normal by those posters they would lose their whole reason to make their Nintendooomed evidence post.
 

Psycho_Mantis

Banned
Jul 28, 2012
26,651
0
0
No, it is not. Saying "a couple" is a way to say 2-3 almost all the time. It's often a way to not commit to 2 or when you can't remember or don't know exactly. Otherwise, people would just say "two" rather than "a couple".

No its not. The literal definition of a couple is two. Colloquial use is a subjective but irrelevant.
 

goldage

Banned
Apr 12, 2017
154
0
0
No its not. The literal definition of a couple is two. Colloquial use is a subjective but irrelevant.
a couple of years = a few years

a couple holding hands = 2 people

a couple of people = a few people

context, no one uses a couple of years to mean exactly 2 years, it just does not happen
 

KHlover

Banned
Jun 26, 2013
13,792
0
0
The literal meaning of "a couple" is two, but it's used literally (both in the literal and figurative way) all the time both in spoken and written conversation to describe an amount of something between 2 and x (where x is higher than two). Does anyone actually use the literal meaning to describe the amount of something? Never in my life have I met anyone who said he'd have/drink/eat.../ a couple of [something] and actually stop at two.

Edit: Actually a pair is exactly two, a couple is just a synonym for that (and only if the pair love each other!). Hmm