Media Create Sales: Week 21, 2012 (May 21 - May 27)

Road

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Dengeki Sales, May 21 - 27, 2012 (Week 21)

01. (__) [PS3] Dragon's Dogma (Capcom) - 291,956 / 291,956 [ST: ~85% => 343,000]
02. (__) [3DS] Mario Tennis Open (Nintendo) - 103,973 / 103,973 [ST: ~60% => 173,000]
03. (__) [PSP] Uta no Prince-Sama Debut (Broccoli) - 68,617 / 68,617
04. (__) [360] Dragon's Dogma (Capcom) - 22,700 / 22,700 [ST: ~85% => 27,000]
05. (02) [WII] Mario Party 9 (Nintendo) - 21,490 / 392,689 (-20%)
06. (__) [PS3] The Idolmaster: Gravure 4 You! Vol. 8 (Bandai Namco) - 12,811 / 12,811
07. (__) [PSP] Jyuza Engi: Engetsu Sangokuden (Idea Factory) - 11,844 / 11,844
08. (05) [3DS] Fire Emblem: Awakening (Nintendo) - 10,622 / 396,144 (-21%)
09. (06) [3DS] Super Mario 3D Land (Nintendo) - 9,306 / 1,591,416 (-1%)
10. (01) [PSP] Ore no Imouto ga Konna ni Kawaii Wake ga Nai Portable ga Tsuzuku Wake ga Nai (Bandai Namco) - 8,950 / 59,090 (-82%)
11. (07) [3DS] Monster Hunter Tri G (Capcom) - 8,463 / 1,475,248 (-5%)
12. (__) [360] Monster Hunter Frontier Online - Forward.4 Premium Package (Capcom) - 8,087 / 8,087
13. (__) [3DS] G1 Grand Prix (Genki) - 8,059 / 8,059
14. (09) [3DS] Mario Kart 7 (Nintendo) - 6,872 / 1,713,109 (-5%)
15. (__) [PS3] Steins;Gate Double Pack [Steins;Gate / Steins;Gate: Hiyoku Renri no Darling] (5pb.) - 6,778 / 6,778
16. (__) [PS3] Steins;Gate: Hiyoku Renri no Darling (5pb.) - 5,750 / 5,750
17. (10) [3DS] Kid Icarus: Uprising (Nintendo) - 5,472 / 293,953 (-19%)
18. (__) [PS3] Steins;Gate (5pb.) - 5,060 / 5,060
19. (__) [3DS] Minna no Ennichi (Bandai Namco) - 4,976 / 4,976
20. (12) [3DS] Mario & Sonic at the London 2012 Olympic Games (Nintendo) - 4,833 / 186,724 (+2%)

*ST: Sell-through => estimated copies shipped.


Other software (first week / LTD):

2009-01-15 [WII] New Play Control! Mario Power Tennis (Nintendo) - 57,000 / 244,000
2005-09-13 [GBA] Mario Tennis: Power Tour (Nintendo) - 35,000 / 129,000


[ALL] Weekly Software Units (ALL) - 856,000 (+120%)


http://news.dengeki.com/elem/000/000/491/491449/
http://megalodon.jp/2012-0601-2121-30/news.dengeki.com/soft/ranking/ranking.html


Dengeki Sales: Week 20, 2012 (May 14 - May 20)

Previous Dengeki Posts (Thanks Cap. Smoker!)
2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012
 
Nov 17, 2005
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In 2010? No.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?p=27392463#post27392463

There's been a sub-discussion in this thread for years, though, where publishers were seemingly leaving DS for PSP despite much higher software sales on DS. At first, a theory was that they were trying to avoid DQIX's release originally scheduled for early 2009, but then it never really picked back up. The reason for the increased PSP support in the face of DS success is an enigma. We can come up with possible reasons, but none of them ever seemed compelling enough to overshadow the sales data, to me. *shrugs*
Huh? Looks like a 'yes' to me:
3rd party
PSP - 15,824,969 - 267
NDS - 12,577,638 - 246
Obviously first-party numbers for NDS were higher, but very few third-parties are ever going to be able to do first-party numbers on a Nintendo system.
 
Huh? Looks like a 'yes' to me:

Obviously first-party numbers for NDS were higher, but very few third-parties are ever going to be able to do first-party numbers on a Nintendo system.
lol?
Third parties sold greatly on DS.
There are so many examples outhere. The fact is that there were not MGS or MH type of games, but something different. The best selling SEGA game is on DS (Love&Berry), for example.
 
Nov 17, 2005
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lol?
Third parties sold greatly on DS.
There are so many examples outhere. The fact is that there were not MGS or MH type of games, but something different. The best selling SEGA game is on DS (Love&Berry), for example.
Where did I say third parties didn't sell greatly on DS? It's just clear that in 2010, when companies were making publishing decisions, more 3rd party software was sold for PSP than DS.
 
Nov 17, 2011
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Obviously first-party numbers for NDS were higher, but very few third-parties are ever going to be able to do first-party numbers on a Nintendo system.
Well, I think few third-parties are ever going to be able to do Nintendo first-party numbers on any system, even going multiplat. So when we're talking about a Nintendo system this comparison is even more pointless, I guess. But I agree with your comment about 2010 3rd parties.
 
Jun 7, 2004
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...though the publishers suffer indirectly, surely? If a retailer ends up with too much stock again & again, they must be leery of working with that publisher?
Only if the publisher is a nobody, in which case they wouldn't be able to really overship to begin with. It doesn't really hurt big publishers with big titles. What are you going to do? Not sell a big game? Lol.

That sounds like a really shitty situation for the retailers. I guess this means that L5 is actually not really hurt by all of their over shipped games.
Level5 is not hurt by overshipped games. But they are hurt by low shipments and low demand for their new IPs in general these days.
 

muu

Member
Mar 20, 2011
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I've seen sales reports of Guild01 that've been all over the place. I doubt any of the stores got much stock, so something like 1 of 4 sold could be "25%" as well.

Got a copy of the game myself and it'd be a shame if it didn't sell, really (though it won't, due to the release timing -- good going there, Hino). The weapons rental game is worth the price of admission by itself, with a simple rhythm game-esque weaponmaking scheme tossed in with basically live twitter feeds of your adventurers constantly filling the upper screen. Writing is top-notch as well. The comical nature reflects well on the comedians that designed it. Monotonous crafting has never been more exciting, and thanks to it I haven't opened up Terry yet.

BTW, I don't 100% agree with the "cover art ruined Guild01" statement. Remember the discussion here (well, myself and FFDog's) about ridiculous light novel titles? We have a similar situation here, with a game that's got a silly cover that catches the eye in the midst of other games w/ normal cover designs.
 
Apr 18, 2005
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Huh? Looks like a 'yes' to me:
1) You asked if PSP had higher software sales at the time than DS, to which, the answer is 'no.'
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?p=38369186#post38369186

2) 3.8m of that is MHP3, which would put NDS ahead even in third-party. I guess no third-party can expect to reach Monster Hunter sales on PSP, so those should be excluded, too. Don't you just love exclusion games!

Oh, and I guess you just missed this part in my post.

There's been a sub-discussion in this thread for years, though, where publishers were seemingly leaving DS for PSP despite much higher software sales on DS. At first, a theory was that they were trying to avoid DQIX's release originally scheduled for early 2009, but then it never really picked back up. The reason for the increased PSP support in the face of DS success is an enigma. We can come up with possible reasons, but none of them ever seemed compelling enough to overshadow the sales data, to me. *shrugs*
The leaving from DS to PSP happened back in 2009 (i.e. well before 12-24 months ago), and there was no apparent sales reason for it at the time, nor did one ever turn up. The 2010 numbers are a result of those changes, and they still show that DS was selling more software than PSP.
 

Pie and Beans

Look for me on the local news, I'll be the guy arrested for trying to burn down a Nintendo exec's house.
Apr 23, 2010
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Dragons Dogma Portable with azure and pink drakes, 3 or 4 new enemy monsters, more armour/weapons, multiplayer. Print yen.
 
Nov 17, 2005
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1) You asked if PSP had higher software sales at the time than DS, to which, the answer is 'no.'
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?p=38369186#post38369186
You're right, overall PSP sales were not higher. I should've more specifically asked for the 3rd-party number, which is what I assume publishers care about.
2) 3.8m of that is MHP3, which would put NDS ahead even in third-party. I guess no third-party can expect to reach Monster Hunter sales on PSP, so those should be excluded, too.
I'll agree that MHP3 should be excluded, it's just as much an outlier as Nintendo 1st party stuff. My quick math showed that 3rd party PSP games in 2010 had higher average sales per title than DS did, but I'm guessing with MH deducted it's probably about even.

Don't you just love exclusion games!
Cute.

Oh, and I guess you just missed this part in my post.

The leaving from DS to PSP happened back in 2009 (i.e. well before 12-24 months ago), and there was no apparent sales reason for it at the time, nor did one ever turn up. The 2010 numbers are a result of those changes, and they still show that DS was selling more software than PSP.
I didn't miss it, but ending up with ~10% more titles for PSP in a year doesn't look like a "leaving" to me.
 
Apr 18, 2005
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I didn't miss it, but ending up with ~10% more titles for PSP in a year doesn't look like a "leaving" to me.
Third-Party Games in MC 2010 Top 1000
PSP - 267
NDS - 246

New Third-Party Games in MC 2010 Top 1000
PSP - 185
NDS - 147


For comparison, 2009 MC Top 1000, and recall that 2009 is when it started switching from DS to PSP.

Third-Party Games in MC 2009 Top 1000
PSP - 206
NDS - 268

New Third-Party Games in MC 2009 Top 1000
PSP - 137
NDS - 154


At the time, Chris1964 would post his release lists, and we'd be shocked why there were few or no DS releases in a week with several PSP releases. Like I said, one theory was that they were avoiding DQIX's release originally planned for early 2009, but it never really picked back up after that.
 
Oct 19, 2005
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2) 3.8m of that is MHP3, which would put NDS ahead even in third-party. I guess no third-party can expect to reach Monster Hunter sales on PSP, so those should be excluded, too. Don't you just love exclusion games!
C'mon, donny, this is a bad argument and you know it. In the context of the type of platform-selection we're talking about, there are a host of reasons why third-party publishers are likely to consider MH a comparable title in a way that Nintendo first-party releases aren't (not least of which being that MH could -- and did -- serve as an umbrella title for a wide range of third-party titles, while most Nintendo stuff was primarily serving as an umbrella for... other Nintendo titles.)

The leaving from DS to PSP happened back in 2009 (i.e. well before 12-24 months ago), and there was no apparent sales reason for it at the time, nor did one ever turn up.
There are a ton of reasons that are more or less "sales-oriented" that development shifted to a PSP-heavy mix:

  • It was a newly successful platform, so there was a certain amount of follow-the-leader going on
  • It was a platform with room to carve out a lot of niches that might not be open on DS
  • By virtue of MH's specific success, there was a big area (local multiplayer action) that was previously untapped anywhere and which could be sold to an interested audience on PSP
  • More generally, PSP's success with a teenage market gave it a desirable demographic to tap
  • PSP being more powerful and full-featured opened up certain genres and game styles that weren't easily available on DS, making it easier to port or continue PS2 series (for example)
  • Manufacturing policies for PSP were significantly more favorable than for DS -- lower prices, faster turnaround, more ability to keep channel filled without shortages
  • Because of the approach studios were taking to development, costs weren't actually much higher in aggregate on PSP compared to DS
  • A niche audience already existed on PSP (due to early support from companies like N1) and all these other factors helped cement it, to the point that a ton of the support we still see these days is niche-market fan crap anyway

(I'm probably forgetting some too.)

If we had seen a complete collapse of DS support in favor of the PSP, I would've agreed it was odd, but that didn't really happen. The companies that had supported the DS.... kept supporting it, at least up until 2011.
 
Apr 18, 2005
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(not least of which being that MH could -- and did -- serve as an umbrella title for a wide range of third-party titles, while most Nintendo stuff was primarily serving as an umbrella for... other Nintendo titles.)
There should be no reason that third-parties could use MH as an umbrella game, but could not use Nintendo games as an umbrella game. In fact, Rocket Co. and IE Institute actually became significant sales publishers during DS's heyday on the back of Brain Training. Maybe you just mean in the core game set? Maybe you're just trying to say that the traditional game publishers gave up trying to replicate Nintendo's success a long time ago, or possibly never bothered, since they were a non-player for third-parties since the PS1-era previously? Could be a cart/horse, self-fulfilling prophecy thing again? "We can't make games like Nintendo's core games, so we should not even try," maybe?

[*]It was a newly successful platform, so there was a certain amount of follow-the-leader going on
PSP's "success" is greatly overrated, from my viewpoint. Back in 2007/2008, I used to say that PSP was the choice, if your target sales were 200-300Ks. That hasn't really changed much outside of Monster Hunter. That still is where it seems like most games can top out at. I don't see how that's going to cause publishers to abandon DS in favor of PSP, though.

[*]It was a platform with room to carve out a lot of niches that might not be open on DS
Why not carve out said niche on the primary platform? Maybe you're just referring to the PS2 visual novel market that was by far easier to port to PSP? Were any niches carved out on PSP instead of DS not due to technology? Because if there were, they probably should've tried on DS, instead.

[*]By virtue of MH's specific success, there was a big area (local multiplayer action) that was previously untapped anywhere and which could be sold to an interested audience on PSP
Mario Kart, Animal Crossing, Mario Party DS, and DQIX tapped into local multiplayer in a big way on DS, so this statement is not valid on the face of it. You may be combining it with the idea of "local multiplayer on better tech," though.

[*]PSP being more powerful and full-featured opened up certain genres and game styles that weren't easily available on DS, making it easier to port or continue PS2 series (for example)
This is by-far the primary reason, to me, for why someone would choose PSP over DS for a game, but why the sudden shift after years of massive DS domination? PS2 well finally ran dry? Expected DS successor coming out (5 years from launch would be 2009, so maybe companies jumped the gun anticipating a switch, since Nintendo had cut back on DS releases, too), so cutting back on DS releases in expectation?

Edit:
This actually makes some sense. Nintendo wouldn't have bothered telling third-parties "No, the successor won't be out for a couple more years, so you're safe to stay on DS for some more years," and with Nintendo removing their heavy support for the system, the in-the-dark publishers could've taken their best guess that DS2 would be coming out sooner rather than later. Nintendo's silence biting them in the butt, again?

[*]Manufacturing policies for PSP were significantly more favorable than for DS -- lower prices, faster turnaround, more ability to keep channel filled without shortages
[*]Because of the approach studios were taking to development, costs weren't actually much higher in aggregate on PSP compared to DS
If it costs the same to put your game on handheld A or handheld B, and handheld A has more than 2/3rds of the market (at the end of 2008), on the face of it, the logical choice is not to go to handheld B.

[*]A niche audience already existed on PSP (due to early support from companies like N1) and all these other factors helped cement it, to the point that a ton of the support we still see these days is niche-market fan crap anyway
Goes back to the tech as they carried on that stuff from PS2. Again, tech was a huge reason to favor PSP over DS, but why suddenly in 2009?

If we had seen a complete collapse of DS support in favor of the PSP, I would've agreed it was odd, but that didn't really happen.
# of new third-party DS games in MC Top 500
2007: 131
2008: 131
2009: 90
2010: 98
2011: 41

# of new third-party PSP games in MC Top 500
2007: 35
2008: 44
2009: 77
2010: 94
2011: 111



Hopefully that makes the 20009 switch clearer.

Edit:
Ugh, I'm not in a good mood, and I get somewhat bitter and sarcastic when I'm not in a good mood. Will try to clean this up a bit.
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Dec 17, 2008
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Famitsu Sales: Week 21, 2012 (May 14 - May 20)

01./00. [PSP] My Little Sister Can't Be This Cute Portable Can't Be Continuing # <ADV> (Bandai Namco Games) {2012.05.17} (¥6.280) - 55.417 / NEW
02./00. [PSP] Persona 2: Eternal Punishment <RPG> (Atlus) {2012.05.17} (¥6.279) - 28.212 / NEW
03./01. [WII] Mario Party 9 <ETC> (Nintendo) {2012.04.26} (¥5.800) - 24.848 / 369.089 (-35%)
04./00. [PSP] Brothers Conflict: Passion Pink # <ADV> (Idea Factory) {2012.05.17} (¥6.090) - 12.594 / NEW
05./05. [3DS] Monster Hunter 3G # <ACT> (Capcom) {2011.12.10} (¥5.800) - 11.500 / 1.433.585 (-8%)
06./04. [3DS] Fire Emblem: Awakening <SLG> (Nintendo) {2012.04.19} (¥4.800) - 11.189 / 392.452 (-20%)
07./06. [3DS] Mario Kart 7 <RCE> (Nintendo) {2011.12.01} (¥4.800) - 9.603 / 1.713.152 (-9%)
08./07. [3DS] Super Mario 3D Land # <ACT> (Nintendo) {2011.11.03} (¥4.800) - 9.560 / 1.597.124 (-4%)
09./02. [PS3] Resident Evil: Operation Raccoon City <ACT> (Capcom) {2012.04.26} (¥6.990) - 6.721 / 318.330 (-54%)
10./08. [3DS] Kid Icarus: Uprising <ACT> (Nintendo) {2012.03.22} (¥5.800) - 6.040 / 290.663 (-19%)
11./03. [PS3] Starhawk <ACT> (Sony Computer Entertainment) {2012.05.10} (¥5.980) - 4.843 / 19.020 (-66%)
12./09. [3DS] Mario & Sonic at the London 2012 Olympic Games <SPT> (Nintendo) {2012.03.01} (¥4.800) - 4.831 / 170.728 (+9%)
13./10. [WII] Wii Sports Resort # <SPT> (Nintendo) {2009.06.25} (¥4.800) - 4.233 / 2.884.058 (+1%)
14./00. [PSP] Bunmei Kaika: Aoiza Ibunroku Saien <ADV> (FuRyu) {2012.05.17} (¥6.090) - 3.985 / NEW
15./00. [3DS] PachiPara 3D: Ooumi Monogatari 2 - Pachi Pro Fuunroku Hana - Kibou to Uragiri no Gakuen Seikatsu <TBL> (Irem Software Engineering) {2012.05.17} (¥6.090) - 3.777 / NEW
16./12. [WII] Wii Party # <ETC> (Nintendo) {2010.07.08} (¥4.800) - 3.425 / 2.277.114 (-5%)
17./13. [3DS] Harvest Moon: A New Beginning <SLG> (Marvelous AQL) {2012.02.23} (¥5.040) - 3.420 / 182.664 (-3%)
18./16. [PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom 3 (PSP the Best) <ACT> (Capcom) {2011.09.22} (¥2.990) - 3.230 / 249.983 (+0%)
19./25. [NDS] Pokemon Black / White # <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2010.09.18} (¥4.800) - 2.759 / 5.444.830 (+21%)
20./18. [WII] Just Dance Wii <ACT> (Nintendo) {2011.10.13} (¥5.800) - 2.662 / 602.953 (-11%)
21./15. [PSP] Pro Baseball Spirits 2012 <SPT> (Konami) {2012.03.29} (¥5.980) - 2.539 / 129.839 (-22%)
22./22. [WII] Mario Kart Wii <RCE> (Nintendo) {2008.04.10} (¥5.800) - 2.517 / 3.507.909 (-3%)
23./17. [PS3] Pro Baseball Spirits 2012 <SPT> (Konami) {2012.03.29} (¥7.980) - 2.356 / 155.709 (-22%)
24./11. [PSP] Conception: Please Give Birth to My Child! <RPG> (Spike Chunsoft) {2012.04.26} (¥6.279) - 2.306 / 43.705 (-43%)
25./27. [WII] Go Vacation <ETC> (Bandai Namco Games) {2011.10.20} (¥5.800) - 2.237 / 295.470 (+7%)
26./20. [NDS] Pokemon Conquest <SLG> (Pokemon Co.) {2012.03.17} (¥5.800) - 2.220 / 322.402 (-18%)
27./23. [3DS] Cho-ricchi! Tamagotchi no Puchi Puchi Omisecchi <ETC> (Bandai Namco Games) {2012.04.19} (¥5.040) - 2.145 / 24.118 (-17%)
28./19. [3DS] Kingdom Hearts 3D -Dream Drop Distance- # <RPG> (Square Enix) {2012.03.29} (¥6.090) - 2.143 / 320.629 (-25%)
29./21. [PSP] 2nd Super Robot Wars Z: Saisei-hen <SLG> (Bandai Namco Games) {2012.04.05} (¥7.330) - 2.070 / 311.712 (-22%)
30./14. [3DS] Dynasty Warriors Vs. <ACT> (Koei Tecmo) {2012.04.26} (¥6.090) - 2.051 / 29.277 (-37%)

Top 30

3DS - 11
PSP - 8
WII - 6
PS3 - 3
NDS - 2

SOFTWARE
Code:
------------------------------------------------
|System | This Week  | Last Week  | Last Year  |
------------------------------------------------
|  PSP  |      37,6% |      16,6% |      40,4% |
|  3DS  |      23,5% |      28,3% |      14,8% |
|  WII  |      14,6% |      20,6% |      10,7% |
|  PS3  |      14,4% |      22,2% |      12,7% |
|  NDS  |       6,0% |       7,4% |      17,7% |
|  PSV  |       2,4% |       2,9% |       0,0% |
|  360  |       1,4% |       1,7% |       3,1% |
|  OTH  |       0,2% |       0,2% |       0,1% |
------------------------------------------------
HARDWARE
Code:
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|System | This Week  | Last Week  | Last Year  |     YTD    |  Last YTD  |     LTD     |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|  3DS  |     41.712 |     45.063 |     16.465 |  1.881.467 |  1.008.237 |   6.017.206 |
|  PS3  |     13.800 |     15.272 |     12.681 |    618.007 |    543.969 |   8.035.155 |
| PSP # |     11.570 |     11.605 |     30.064 |    446.787 |    934.992 |  18.683.895 |
|  WII  |      5.958 |      6.443 |      6.240 |    235.903 |    375.349 |  12.403.646 |
|  PSV  |      5.879 |      5.849 |            |    285.142 |            |     687.936 |
|  360  |        835 |        758 |      1.815 |     24.911 |     59.501 |   1.545.649 |
|  PS2  |        449 |        493 |      1.163 |     11.481 |     29.207 |  21.965.772 |
| NDS # |        368 |        466 |      6.554 |     18.302 |    580.109 |  32.853.804 |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|  ALL  |     80.571 |     85.949 |     74.982 |  3.522.000 |  3.531.364 | 102.193.063 |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|  DSi  |        368 |        466 |      6.208 |     18.302 |    556.277 |   8.263.500 |
|  PSP  |     11.570 |     11.605 |     29.739 |    446.787 |    916.655 |  18.523.320 |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
Oct 19, 2005
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There should be no reason that third-parties could use MH as an umbrella game, but could not use Nintendo games as an umbrella game.
Sure there is: Monster Hunter is an umbrella for games that game companies actually make, while most of Nintendo's output is an umbrella either for software that isn't made by people inside the industry or which has a pretty narrow window of interest outside a singular genre king.

I mean, if you want to read this as being about how third parties are incompetent because they can't harness The Nintendo Magic(TM) or whatever, uh, be my guest, I suppose, but the reality of it is that the success of Monster Hunter represented (and produced) a real opportunity for success that isn't mirrored by Nintendo's software.

(Also, the success of the DS was well before the success of Monster Hunter, so almost anyone who saw that success and wanted to try to get under the umbrella had already tried, with some better and some worse results, by 2009.)

PSP's "success" is greatly overrated, from my viewpoint. Back in 2007/2008, I used to say that PSP was the choice, if your target sales were 200-300Ks.
Most Japanese publishers and franchises produce games that only expect to sell 200-300k. If you're Atlus selling ports of older catalog titles, or Namco selling Tales fanservice games and robot crap, or Image Epoch selling C-list RPGs that cannot possibly appeal to anyone outside an extremely conscribed audience, there is no downside whatsoever to releasing on a platform that caps out around 300k.

(And third parties have released 21 games that sold over 300k since 2009, so I don't think that's exactly a hard limit either.)

Why not carve out said niche on the primary platform?
The definition of a niche market is that it doesn't sell that much. That means both that almost any platform can play host to it (because you don't need big massive installed base to succeed) and that really minor factors explode to huge importance (because every dollar and every wasted hour counts when you run a shoestring budget.) If it cost $2 to press a UMD vs. $4 for a DS cartridge and Sony's reprint turnaround was a week faster, to pick a hypothetical based on real problems the DS platform encountered, that alone might be enough to account for almost all the migration.

I think the PS2 really gives people a false impression here, by virtue of dominating so extensively that it even controlled all of the niche markets. It's much more normal to see stuff like the shmup market on Dreamcast, or the visual novel market on 360, or whatever.

Mario Kart, Animal Crossing, Mario Party DS, and DQIX tapped into local multiplayer in a big way on DS
Other than Mario Kart (which, yes, did probably represent a missed opportunity for other racing games) these games either sold overwhelmingly on the back of single-player (DQ, AC) or offered up something that ultimately didn't have a lot of room for expansion but which third parties did at least make an effort on (Itadaki Street, Culdcept.)

The specific loot-action-game formula that MH made work is quite a bit different from any of these titles, and targeted a different audience (mid-teens) than Nintendo's local-multi successes (kids or families).

This is by-far the primary reason, to me, for why someone would choose PSP over DS for a game, but why the sudden shift after years of massive DS domination? PS2 well finally ran dry?
Errr, yes? Nippon Ichi held onto PS2 until 2007, Atlus until 2008. Atlus took that as an opportunity to split their output between DS (original Megaten titles) and PSP (ports and remakes), while N1 took it as an opportunity to expand their previous moderate PSP success.

For bigger publishers, I imagine some of them took a similar approach to what Square-Enix did here: saw that their HD development was in no state to serve as the sole out for presentation-oriented franchises or visually-skilled teams, and chose PSP as the best available option for software that wasn't suited to DS. (I would say SE supported both systems extraordinarily well over their lifetimes, and their PSP releases were almost entirely games that wouldn't work even conceptually on DS.)

This actually makes some sense. Nintendo wouldn't have bothered telling third-parties "No, the successor won't be out for a couple more years, so you're safe to stay on DS for some more years," and with Nintendo removing their heavy support for the system, the in-the-dark publishers could've taken their best guess that DS2 would be coming out sooner rather than later.
I do believe that this happened to some degree, yes.

Goes back to the tech as they carried on that stuff from PS2. Again, tech was a huge reason to favor PSP over DS, but why suddenly in 2009?
I think there was also a (largely accurate) perception in, say, 2008 that your random PSP game probably wouldn't even sell "200-300k" and so it wasn't worth accepting poor results in exchange for technical superiority, whereas after MH (and after other PSP software sales ticked up) it no longer had a noticeable downside.

I don't think the huge collapse of DS support in 2011 had much to do with the PSP (since the previous two years there were still quite a few releases, if a bit less than at the peak) compared to the successor-anxiety thing we talked about above, combined with the way everyone was becoming ultra-paranoid about DS piracy all of a sudden.
 
Apr 18, 2005
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I mean, if you want to read this as being about how third parties are incompetent because they can't harness The Nintendo Magic(TM) or whatever, uh, be my guest, I suppose,
How would you be referring to anything else? You referred to singular genre kings, which pretty much has to be "magic" that no one else can capture. Any non-Nintendo examples of other singular genre kings? Seems like it'd sort of have to refer to some sort of "Nintendo Magic," which isn't really an answer in itself.

(And third parties have released 21 games that sold over 300k since 2009, so I don't think that's exactly a hard limit either.)
Back in 2007/2008, I used to say that PSP was the choice, if your target sales were 200-300Ks.
Notice the 's' at then end. Not obvious, but that was supposed to include anything in the 300s, sort of like saying 1770s includes 1770-1779. From that, there's 11 titles since 2009, including 6 MHs or MH clones, over 400K. Nintendo in the same time period had 10 third-party titles > 400K with 4 of those being Dragon Quest games. For games released prior to 2009, it was 23/8 for DS/PSP. Again, big change-up in apparent big game support.

Edit:
If you can get your game close to 400K, that's a pretty good going, though. Just in comparison to DS/PS2 (overall, not just third-party), there was a ton of games in the 400K - 1m range that wasn't existing on PSP. If your game didn't want to try to get above 400K, then it was a possibly decent place to be, though.

The definition of a niche market is that it doesn't sell that much. That means both that almost any platform can play host to it (because you don't need big massive installed base to succeed) and that really minor factors explode to huge importance (because every dollar and every wasted hour counts when you run a shoestring budget.) If it cost $2 to press a UMD vs. $4 for a DS cartridge and Sony's reprint turnaround was a week faster, to pick a hypothetical based on real problems the DS platform encountered, that alone might be enough to account for almost all the migration.
Possibly. From a long-term thinking perspective, it'd make sense to put your niche title on the platform where it's least likely to stay niche. Wouldn't think you'd want to stay niche forever, as that's very possibly not going to be sustainable long-term. You had previously postulated that "costs weren't actually much higher in aggregate on PSP compared to DS" as a possibility, so this scenario would be in direct contrast to that presumption. Equal costs, to me, warrants putting it on the biggest install base to try to expand beyond a niche. That may not be the thinking of all niche-game publishers, though. :/

I think the PS2 really gives people a false impression here, by virtue of dominating so extensively that it even controlled all of the niche markets. It's much more normal to see stuff like the shmup market on Dreamcast, or the visual novel market on 360, or whatever.
Yeah, I keep thinking back to the PS2 and how it had the niche games, which allowed for more people to get into that niche. If that's not a good example, then that could be a problem with my way of thinking, yes.

The specific loot-action-game formula that MH made work is quite a bit different from any of these titles,
Loot-action is interesting. Haven't played much of those games, but I think Diablo is another one of those. World of Warcraft, too? Those seem to have much more obsessive fans than Mario Kart, Mario Party, and AC, for sure. Nintendo loot-action game? Don't know that there's ever been one. Interesting concept of what would make MH local-multiplayer distinctly different than the local multi-player of Nintendo DS games.

Okay. That would help explain the increase in PSP support, but not necessarily the decrease in NDS support.

combined with the way everyone was becoming ultra-paranoid about DS piracy all of a sudden.
That would explain the decrease in NDS support. :/ Forgot about that. Was 2009 when Ubisoft started talking about 50% YOY decline in DS sales in EU due to piracy (think % and region are right there)? Nintendo came out with the DSi in 2009, and for all else that the DSi didn't do (e.g. offer a GBC lineup of retail games, have an exclusive Pokemon like Crystal), it did seem to do a better job of combating piracy with the firmware updates. 3DS building on that to be even more so.

So I guess the DS -> PSP 2009 shift could be explained with the below points.

* MH success bringing attention to the system, and for those who weren't able to capitalize on the DS (e.g. Nintendo magic, incompetence), it offered another opportunity to follow the coattails of a big gun in, possibly, an easier to understand genre
* PS2 sales drying up, leading to PSP as the natural continuation of certain types of games (*insert Spiegel comment of PSP becoming the new PS2*)
* NDS environment being left uncertain due to Nintendo withdrawing big support and no clear discussion of a DS2
* NDS software sales being hit bigtime by piracy all of a sudden, whereas PSP had been dealing with that for years anyway, so at least it might've been a "known" there


Sound about right?
 
Apr 30, 2008
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Ga
Oh hey I just noticed the May prediction results. I was 5th in units and 4th in percentage and would have been higher but missing Dragon's Dogma by a cool 100k units absolutely killed me. Still, I'm pleased by where I ended up even if it is almost pure guesswork and gut feeling!

If DQM really is selling out and they are having to wait on restock then shame on Square Enix for underestimating demand yet again. Hopefully they'll be able to get that situation rectified quickly so sales aren't lost in the meantime. Square needs a big seller on the 3DS and this is their best chance for the forseeable future.
 
Oct 19, 2005
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How would you be referring to anything else? You referred to singular genre kings, which pretty much has to be "magic" that no one else can capture.
I'm drawing the distinction between, like, Halo/Call of Duty on the one side (wildly popular and successful and but still actively cultivates a sub-market of comparable games at the same time) and, I dunno, Animal Crossing (wildly successful but basically meaningless in terms of selling "comparable" games.) Some genres drive much more interest in other comparable games than others. This is actually part of the specific problem Nintendo identified with their own strategy that made it hard to execute well -- they identified a lot of genres and game types that could be really well-served but which didn't create a lot of interest in sequels or similar titles.

Possibly. From a long-term thinking perspective, it'd make sense to put your niche title on the platform where it's least likely to stay niche.
I don't think this is a meaningful concern for many of the titles we're talking about here. Most of these random RPGs and strategy games and so on weren't ever in a million years going to become breakout hits and stopping to worry about the possibility that they might would be a poor use of the publisher's time. (And if they did, well, Monhan makes it clear that PSP could technically support that too.)

Equal costs, to me, warrants putting it on the biggest install base to try to expand beyond a niche. That may not be the thinking of all niche-game publishers, though. :/
This honestly sounds wild to me. Almost all of these niche publishers have operated for years on the principle of least-astonishment low-cost development; they cultivate a proven audience and, as much as possible, keep selling to it witohut taking any efforts to broaden their appeal that might potentially rock the boat with said core audience.

I think the canniest and most successful devs in this audience had some room to serve their niche audience while trying to court additional broader audiences as well (I'm thinking of Atlus here) and have devised platform strategies to match, but I think most devs didn't have the opportunity and the PS2 was really kind of risk-friendly environment that most other generations have not matched.

Nintendo loot-action game? Don't know that there's ever been one.
Soma Bringer!

Was 2009 when Ubisoft started talking about 50% YOY decline in DS sales in EU due to piracy (think % and region are right there)?
2009 or 2010, I think. Somewhere in that era.

Sound about right?
Yes.
 
Jun 1, 2005
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2009 or 2010, I think. Somewhere in that era.
The problem with this particular argument lies in the choice of platform. If piracy is cited as a driving factor for switching platforms - then it doesn't make any sense at all to switch to platform which is just as rife with piracy as the platform you are abandoning.

So I can't believe that piracy had anything to do with the migration from the DS to PSP.
 
Apr 18, 2005
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I dunno, Animal Crossing (wildly successful but basically meaningless in terms of selling "comparable" games.)
Magician's Quest.

It seems like Nintendo's expanded audience games (i.e. mostly the new ones with DS) got the most successful tag-alongs from third-parties (e.g. Magician's Quest, IE Institute/Rocket Co. Brain/TOEIC training games, resurgence of Tamagotchi), and the more traditional ones that have been around awhile didn't get many takers for making copies. On the plus side, going back to 2-D with NSMB has caused a resurgence in 2-D titles from Nintendo itself (Kirby x 2, DKC). Just hasn't gotten many takers in the third-party world, outside of Ubisoft with Rayman Origins.
 
Famitsu Top 10 - May 28 / June 3

01. [3DS] Dragon Quest Monsters: Terry&#8217;s Wonderland 3D
02. [PS3] Dragon&#8217;s Dogma
03. [3DS] Mario Tennis Open
04. [WII] Mario Party 9
05. [3DS] Guild 01
06. [PS3] Jissen Pachi-Slot Hisshouhou! Hokuto no Ken F &#8211; Seikimatsu Kyuuseishu Densetsu
07. [PSP] Uta no * Prince-Sama: Debut
08. [PSP] Soukoku no Kusabi: Hiiro no Kakera 3 Ashita he no Tobira
09. [3DS] Super Mario 3D Land
10. [3DS] Monster Hunter Tri G