I think 3DS is the most likely of all five platforms to get a direct hardware successor. Wii U and Vita have been so disastrous worldwide that following up in both markets is an open question and PS4/Xbox One seem poised to move from hardware to services next time.
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Media Create Sales: Week 22, 2014 (May 26 - Jun 01)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
MasterSheen
Member
Well portables are their main source of profit and the 3DS is still doing decently well for them I would say. I wouldn't be surprised if they quit the console biz but I see them at least making another handheld
well iwata talked about the 3ds's successor earlier this year, so i guess there's that.
chrominance
Member
Of course there will be a 3DS successor. It's Nintendo's most popular console currently.
it will also be the Wii U successor
Well, that's a new one. Of course they will have a successor to a successful product. May be it's not as successful as the prervious one (a high bar that one), but still a successful product.
shinra-bansho
Member
I read your post fine. It doesn't say that.
It says this
The former, which in the prior sentence is franchises with Western appeal, will continue their strategy of console releases, "other than that exceptions like Yakuza and Tales" which doesn't really make grammatical sense but one would infer you're saying they're exceptions that won't be continuing such a strategy...
Which publishers are you referring to when talking about platform consolidation in the event the PS4 and PSV fail being a boon for then? Not those focused on Western markets, apparently not those franchises listed above, and not the "perverted niche" publishers.
Well, while I broadly agree, they may well be releasing it into an environment with no dedicated handheld competition, unlike now. Where does the Vita audience go? Would they, too, be subsumed by mobile?
There will be a 3DS successor, and is probably in the R&D phase right now. The right question we need to ask is "when." While the 3DS combined sales have slowed down this year, their software sales is still as strong as ever. They'll capitalize on this one before sending a new handheld to the market.
I doubt there's much of a Vita exclusive audience even now. They'll just focus on the other platforms they own.
I have no particular publisher in mind and won´t make any guesses because there simply aren´t sufficient informations in what state their current productions and future plans are. The simple fact that the older systems will be less and less supported will lead to a smaller and more compact selection of systems. Also there aren´t many Japanese publishers that are only aiming to appeal the western audience, it´s more like they have games that have this kind of appeal and others that are intented to appeal the Japanese audience. A good example is BandaiNamco.
Lolll
test_account
XP-39C²
True, but he was only referring to dedicated gaming hardware in the first post.
If you remove the PSP, PS3, PS4 and Vita, you're left with the 3DS and the WiiU. I dont see whats akward about that, since you would have to refer to either one or both of those systems if you exclude the other four (PSP/PS3/PS4/Vita). If you dont want to include the WiiU either, then you're left with the 3DS only
It would be a lot easier if you just said where you think the support will move to that will lead to less fragmentation. This way people dont have to guess which system that you're referring to and you would most likely avoid getting questions that you might find akward.The 6 month time frame was just an example, feel free to add your own timeframe if you mean that the Vita software support has shown sign of decrease in recent times.
About the other things you say, thats fine, but where do you think that the support will be moved to? That is basically the only thing i'm wondering about. I'm not arguing about which system that will get less support or anything like that, just to point that out. I'm actually not trying to do much arguing at all, i'm only wondering which system you think will recieve more support when the PS3 and PSP is gone from the market and how this will benefit the japanese gaming market.
As other people have said, I think the main reason why they're releasing so many Persona-themed games is to build as much hype as posible for the release of Persona 5.
And they'll probably stay on the PS3/4 for the time being. They'll probably release a Persona 5 port on the Vita (hopefully).
They could be "testing the waters" or maybe not with Persona Q. I don't know. But I don't think they need to do it now. The best moment to start a transition is when a new gen starts IMO. If there isn't a 2nd Vita / PSP3 they could perfectly launch a Persona 3+4 / Persona 5 Ruby or whatever in 4DS first year and start building a fanbase from there while they keep releasing new mainline titles on a PlayStation homeconsole (or not).
They like to waste money? I mean, they think Lost Plannet is an important IP after what happened with LP3, so I'm not that crazy
Jokes aside, who are they going to fit it on a memory card? Will they be so shameless to release a cart with 3.3GB of content and force people to download another 12GB in order to make the game work?
Or do the retail versions just have a download code?
And they'll probably stay on the PS3/4 for the time being. They'll probably release a Persona 5 port on the Vita (hopefully).
They could be "testing the waters" or maybe not with Persona Q. I don't know. But I don't think they need to do it now. The best moment to start a transition is when a new gen starts IMO. If there isn't a 2nd Vita / PSP3 they could perfectly launch a Persona 3+4 / Persona 5 Ruby or whatever in 4DS first year and start building a fanbase from there while they keep releasing new mainline titles on a PlayStation homeconsole (or not).
They like to waste money? I mean, they think Lost Plannet is an important IP after what happened with LP3, so I'm not that crazy
Jokes aside, who are they going to fit it on a memory card? Will they be so shameless to release a cart with 3.3GB of content and force people to download another 12GB in order to make the game work?
Or do the retail versions just have a download code?
True, but he was only referring to dedicated gaming hardware in the first post.
If you remove the PSP, PS3, PS4 and Vita, you're left with the 3DS and the WiiU. So you tell me, i dont see whats akward with that question. If you dont want to include the WiiU either, then you're left with the 3DS only
The 6 month time frame was just an example, feel free to add your own timeframe if you mean that the Vita software support has shown sign of decrease in recent times.
About the other things you say, thats fine, but where do you think that the support will be moved to? That is basically the only thing i'm wondering about.
Why should anyone consider systems with small userbases to get a good chunk of exclusive support? I don´t make exceptions in this regard so it´s really awkward to me that you would even ask if a low selling system is one of the systems getting, like you said, "almost all" support, something that I didn´t imply at all. My point basically is that there´ll be less active systems in the market. The abysmal performance of PS4 and also bad performance of PSV actually was described in a different paragraph, the argument about less fragmentation on the other hand in a different paragraph, where I specifically referred to older systems namely PS3 and PSP. That bad sales aren´t completely unrelated when it comes to the new distrubution of resources is a different matter, but it isn´t a matter of all or nothing but more about how much more support. Publishers will simply choose according to what their target audience is, smartphones of course are on the rise and in general systems that have a big userbase on which software is selling and also proofs to support new IPs in becoming big are always a good guess in my book. While niche title will be made for the systems the niche actually exists.
The 6 month timeframe is really weird as well for several reasons and I already pointed out some of them in one of my prior posts. The sales haven´t reached pre PSV2000 sales that long ago, PSV isn´t getting much support to begin with, it´s also silly to imply that there could be a visible change of mind and support in less than 3 months. In fact I didn´t say that there has been a decrease in recent time, so please stop putting words in my mouth. In my opinion its support is as mediocre as it has been for quite some time right now, if the current sales trajectory continues it simply could remain as mediocre as it has been for some time,(mainly software aimed at specific niche), and with PSV beeing completely irrelevant outside Japan it could get even worse if it doesn´t start to improve.
What about those games means they don't understand the market? They're there to fill in time before the next major Tales release.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
Honestly, I think Persona 5 will be like Persona 3.
So Persona 5 PS3/4
Persona 5 Ruby PS3/4
Persona 5 Portable PSV
Mauricio_Magus
Banned
I really wouldn't expect a port of Persona 5 until at least 2016, Persona 5 will probably stay as a PS3 exclusive for a while.
I expect Atlus to bring more HD SMT stuff now that they have proper assets to do so. Like what happened with Nocturne in the PS2 era.
So... for a while = 1 year?
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
I reckon a PS4 port will happen for Persona 5 Ruby. I mean thats a 2016 title and if its still on PS3 then it may be a waste of potential.
I expect Atlus to bring more HD SMT stuff now that they have proper assets to do so. Like what happened with Nocturne in the PS2 era.
So... for a while = 1 year?
Hopefully. Its weird why all of a sudden SMT PS2 titles are appearing on PSN....like why did they not do this for the past 7 years -___-
It all depends on how well Persona 5. If it surpasses expectations WW then I can see it happening.
Mauricio_Magus
Banned
So... for a while = 1 year?
At best, and I'd expect a Vita port before a PS4 one.
test_account
XP-39C²
Thats fair. I did see that you wrote it in a seperate paragraph, indeed, but i thought maybe it was a part of your whole arguement, so i based my question on that. In that case, i was taking into concideration what you said about the PS3 and PSP going out of the market, and that the PS4 was deadweight and the Vita seems to be following that as well. Then we're basically left with the 3DS and the WiiU. That is why i asked if you were referring to the 3DS and/or the WiiU regarding where the freed up resources would move to.
But if what you said about the PS4 and the Vita was kinda unrelated to that, and that you believe that the freed up support from PS3 and PSP can also carry over to the the PS4 and/or Vita, i agree with that
I wonder how much effect the death of PS3 and PSP will have on the fragmention. Something that maybe wasnt too clear in my initial question is that when the PS3 and the PSP goes away, we're basically back to a normal gaming cycle with three consoles and two handhelds. That would be less system than right now for sure, but would it have any noticeably positive effect this time? Personally, i think that the PS4 will eventually replace the PS3 (although i could see fewer console games in general). The PSP going away means one less active system indeed. I expect to see the type of games that has been released on PSP during the last year or so to be divided to 3DS, Vita and Mobile (i have no idea about any percentage regarding the dividing).
Dont worry, i'm not putting any words into your mouth. I know that you havnt said anything about any recent decrease in Vita support indeed. What i said about the 6 months was just my opinion about that i havnt seen any signs that would make me believe that the Vita support will be dropping in the future. I havnt said anything about less than 3 months though? I guess i could have dropped to mention any number of months because my point is just that i havnt seen any signs of decreasing Vita support. I could have mentioned 3, 6, 9 or 12 months and my point would have been exactly the same. I just wrote 6 months just an example to illustrate that i havnt seen any recent signs that Vita support will decrease.
If its simply a guess that the recent decreased Vita hardware sales will lead to less Vita software support in the future, that is fair enough.
Metallix87
Member
Why would Nintendo want to work with Sony on a handheld, exactly? There's no incentive for them to do that.
Father_Brain
Banned
Yep. I expect Nintendo will make some (by their standards) significant strategic shifts in an attempt to adapt to smartphone/tablet encroachment, but they'll ultimately be too little, too late.
It also really, really ought to be out by the end of 2015, but I'm not sure that's going to happen. Things will most likely get a good deal worse for NCL before they get better, especially if QOL is as delusional a strategy as it sounds.
I'm not saying they should, but Sony is better at making hardware.
frankie_baby
Member
I actually wonder if when Nintendo's next handheld happens and assuming it's a big success (a big if still) maybe Sony might be tempted to release games on it, perhaps not devote much if any development resources to it but maybe licence their IPs to other developers for it
Probably not but you never know. SCEJ did do some Wonderswan games way back when.
Isn't it all just off the shelf parts?
Metallix87
Member
Doubtful. They barely release games on the Vita as it is.
If anything, they'll release some content on mobile, and move most of their "portable gaming" resources towards their consoles, be it the PS4 or PS5.
They do? Comparing Vita to 3DS the one thing that seems to stand-out is that Sony made a high(er)-end device while Nintendo decided to do a cheaper one. Looks like Nintendo choose the right(er) route.
SatelliteOfLove
Member
sörine;115003231 said:
Depends...does it play like sloppy shite with IAP (pay 100Y to select your skills in this fusion mwahahahaha @ all the people addicted to this).
And YHWH bless them for it.
shinra-bansho
Member
So, not sure if this is the best place to ask, but I don't want to make a thread and it pertains to sales... although not necessarily in Japan.
Nintendo have taken to including digital download indie titles in their supplementary investor information list of third parties, and Sony are talking about how they have 70 games at their E3 booth. I would assume in both instances the implication is "look at these reasons that people have to buy the console."
Do people think that indie titles* have any hardware impact without any retail presence?
My personal feeling is that they don't really.
And as a follow up, would the idea of "Indie Compilations," (collections of indie titles as retail releases, perhaps enough to warrant a full price tag or alternatively as budget releases) work in any way to improve the market for software in general, and/or help with hardware sales?
Would people buy the Humble Indie Bundle at retail for consoles? Would it be a profitable and worthwhile endeavour for any major publisher (first or third).
*By this I mean the likes of Trine and Octodad from small developers, rather than the large independent developers that sometimes self-publish (Epic, Crytek, Valve, even Telltale which already sees retail release etc.)
Nintendo have taken to including digital download indie titles in their supplementary investor information list of third parties, and Sony are talking about how they have 70 games at their E3 booth. I would assume in both instances the implication is "look at these reasons that people have to buy the console."
Do people think that indie titles* have any hardware impact without any retail presence?
My personal feeling is that they don't really.
And as a follow up, would the idea of "Indie Compilations," (collections of indie titles as retail releases, perhaps enough to warrant a full price tag or alternatively as budget releases) work in any way to improve the market for software in general, and/or help with hardware sales?
Would people buy the Humble Indie Bundle at retail for consoles? Would it be a profitable and worthwhile endeavour for any major publisher (first or third).
*By this I mean the likes of Trine and Octodad from small developers, rather than the large independent developers that sometimes self-publish (Epic, Crytek, Valve, even Telltale which already sees retail release etc.)
Arguably system software and interface due to Nintendo's minimalist approach (a matter of taste) but not the actual hardware and buttons. Are you kidding me, those sticks on PSV are a joke next to the circle pad, among other things.
I agree, I think indies do not have any hardware impact. Though Minecraft may have had some amount of impact before it was available at retail, but that seems to be a unique exception.
The indie games collection idea seems very interesting. It would kind of be like Humble Bundle and other sites similar to it.
We don't have digital sales, so I don't think that we would be able to judge properly whether or not an indie collection would be a good way to do that, but I'm guessing that having retail presence would be better than not having it and it would lead to additional sales that probably would not have been obtainable if the games weren't available at retail.
As for hardware sales, it is very unlikely. The games that move hardware sales are mostly big budget, heavily-marketed games that has a lot of presence at retail stores.
The indie games collection idea seems very interesting. It would kind of be like Humble Bundle and other sites similar to it.
We don't have digital sales, so I don't think that we would be able to judge properly whether or not an indie collection would be a good way to do that, but I'm guessing that having retail presence would be better than not having it and it would lead to additional sales that probably would not have been obtainable if the games weren't available at retail.
As for hardware sales, it is very unlikely. The games that move hardware sales are mostly big budget, heavily-marketed games that has a lot of presence at retail stores.
I imagine it would sell it to those who are aware of the games, but are hestitant to buy the game at its asking price on the digital stores. Probably will sell to those looking for good deals as well.
shinra-bansho
Member
I guess on further thought, the NES Remixes are something along these lines, but rather than new indie titles, they're legacy titles? But then, they're well-known Nintendo properties so probably aren't a good comparison.
I'm just wondering if it would be worthwhile for Nintendo to for instance to secure the rights to publish a compilation of the games they list in their investor materials (Nihilumbra, Scram Kitty and his Buddy on Rails, 1001 Spikes, Teslagrad, SQUIDS Odyssey, Armillo, Shovel Knight, Stick It to the Man), so that there's just more software out there.
Or when Sony did that big indie showcase at E3 last year, whether it would have been mutually beneficial for both those developers and Sony to find some arrangement to sell them at retail.
I agree that the big titles are what drives sales, but I wonder whether this could be a way of simply improving the general software situation between those big titles.
I'm just wondering if it would be worthwhile for Nintendo to for instance to secure the rights to publish a compilation of the games they list in their investor materials (Nihilumbra, Scram Kitty and his Buddy on Rails, 1001 Spikes, Teslagrad, SQUIDS Odyssey, Armillo, Shovel Knight, Stick It to the Man), so that there's just more software out there.
Or when Sony did that big indie showcase at E3 last year, whether it would have been mutually beneficial for both those developers and Sony to find some arrangement to sell them at retail.
I agree that the big titles are what drives sales, but I wonder whether this could be a way of simply improving the general software situation between those big titles.
Indie games can boost hardware sales in that they're a value add, but that's all. Safe to say that no significant audience is buying $400 hardware primarily for them.
Father_Brain
Banned
Indie games can help push hardware sales, but only in the aggregate, as part of an extremely broad and diverse software ecosystem that includes bigger-budget retail titles, robust non-gaming functions, or both. There is no one or two or three or probably even eight indie games that could push or have pushed significant quantities of hardware in themselves, probably not even Minecraft.
We're talking about the Japanese market here right? If so, it's interesting that you mention NES Remix. It's developed by Indieszero, and they previously made the first two Game Center CX titles (Retro Games Challenge). In terms of consumer appeal, that's basically what we're talking about right? A collection of smaller games which tend to be throwbacks to older and simpler games.
I don't think the majority of the market cares about labels like "indie" or whatever. They look at what interests them and whether they want to play it. Something like Terraria can still sell over 50k on the PS3 in Japan at retail priced at 40 bucks. So that's certainly not completely insignificant. But looking at the Game Center CX games, the 3 releases went from 98k -> 75k -> 30k. So the appeal is still pretty limited in the grand scheme of things.
I'll say it's reasonable to expect good indie titles to be able to do 50-100k if priced right and marketed well to the right audience, and it could certainly help with the ecosystem of any platform in terms of diversity, but the numbers make it clear that they won't make much of a difference on their own, at least in Japan.
I don't know if indie games are a hardware driver but retail curation on Nintendo's part might be a smart move to help fill out their empty Wii U release schedule. They don't even need to bundle them necessairily, I think Trine 2 or 1001 Spikes for example could work on it's own as a budget retail release. Individually the games probably won't light the charts on fire but they could add up and Nintendo has a wide selection to pick from already.
In Japan, the 3DS is probably the only console guaranteed to have a successor.
shinra-bansho
Member
Not exclusively referring to the Japanese market, although comments regarding it are welcome.
I forgot about Terraria, and I agree it wouldn't necessarily need to be bundles. If Nintendo was releasing these titles regularly to 30-50K in sales, the Wii U would probably be at least slightly healthier.
I would assume these games are all certified etc. etc., so in terms of cost it would just be pressing discs, general distribution etc, and any marketing?
I'm kind of curious now how things like The Walking Dead and Child of Light have done at retail globally, as opposed to digital on consoles. (I don't know if Japanese Child of Light retail sales are reflective or not).
I forgot about Terraria, and I agree it wouldn't necessarily need to be bundles. If Nintendo was releasing these titles regularly to 30-50K in sales, the Wii U would probably be at least slightly healthier.
I would assume these games are all certified etc. etc., so in terms of cost it would just be pressing discs, general distribution etc, and any marketing?
I'm kind of curious now how things like The Walking Dead and Child of Light have done at retail globally, as opposed to digital on consoles. (I don't know if Japanese Child of Light retail sales are reflective or not).
I don't have any numbers backing it up, but my impression is that for these titles retail doesn't make a whole lot of sense if we're talking about the worldwide market in general. They're most appealing as cheaper digital titles which you can play at any time rather than being tied to a disc which you pay more for with less practical usage. I also feel that in some major territories PC digital sales for such titles probably eclipse all other formats.
I think the best option is doing like XSEED (?) did with Senran Kagura. Make a deal with a retailer, offer a limited print for pre-orders for that people that wants one no matter what. If your game is only getting a digital release its a niche title that appeals to a certain sector of gaming enthusiasts. And those guys are more used to buying stuff from places like Amazon or other web pages. So you don't really lose that much by trying it.