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Sales-Age Media Create Sales: Week 22, 2017 (May 29 - Jun 04)

Oregano

Member
Mar 13, 2013
12,412
4
0
Ah okay.
Doesn't really look like Tales of, more Xenoblade with a shonen jump protagonist and some very doubtful character designs (and by that I mean closer to Idea Factory's games than Tales of)

Most recent Tales:


But sure it's not exactly like Tales.

It's not a bad thing either, I actually kinda like the animu aesthetic
 

thestopsign

Member
Jun 2, 2005
7,839
2
1,325
I'm really questioning how games like Skyrim, Mario + Rabbits, Rocket League, FIFA do on the Switch in Japan:
- Big western RPG on a handheld
- XCOM with Mario branding
- Sport games that allow portable multiplayer

Predicting is going to be fun

- Skyrim will do well, but not incredibly so.
- Hard to predict Mario + Rabbids, but it is 2018 in Japan apparently.
- FIFA and Rocket League are both non-factors in Japan.

The big announcements for Switch in Japan were Yoshi, Kirby, and Pokemon... all 2018 at the earliest.
 

Ōkami

Member
May 10, 2015
3,585
1
0
I predict Skyrim will sell 6 million units on Japan this year, just on Switch, the added portabilty of a portable game will help and the tens of millions that will buy Splatoon 2 will need something else.

FIFA will go up to former Winning Eleven levels thanks to portability, Konami cries!

Serious, the first offical release of Rocket League in Japan is the Switch version,
that one could do well.
 

Skullwaker

Member
Dec 3, 2015
629
0
250
Texas
I expect Kirby and Yoshi to do very well in Japan. Those will be nice additions to Fire Emblem next year (hopefully there's Animal Crossing, Pikmin, etc. as well). And obviously Pokémon will sell amazingly, whenever that releases (I'm thinking late 2018 or early 2019).

Metroid Prime 4 is definitely a title made for the west though. I don't expect much from it in Japan, but it's a great title to have in the lineup regardless.
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Dec 17, 2008
11,738
0
0
Pokemon is getting way too many releases. If Pokemon Switch comes out in 2018 it will be 3 years in a row. US/UM may belong to the same generation but they are as main as they can be. Sales will be affected in a small or big way,
 

Mory Dunz

Member
Jun 12, 2012
14,205
0
0
Ōkami;240614784 said:
Serious, the first offical release of Rocket League in Japan is the Switch version,
that one could do well.

didn't know that.
any particular reason why the others haven't come?
 

Oregano

Member
Mar 13, 2013
12,412
4
0
Pokemon is getting way too many releases. If Pokemon Switch comes out in 2018 it will be 3 years in a row. US/UM may belong to the same generation but they are as main as they can be. Sales will be affected in a small or big way,

It might not actually be 2018 but I thought it was notable that Ishihara(or the translator) said it "may not release for over a year".
 

Psycho_Mantis

Banned
Jul 28, 2012
26,651
0
0
Ōkami;240614784 said:
I predict Skyrim will sell 6 million units on Japan this year, just on Switch, the added portabilty of a portable game will help and the tens of millions that will buy Splatoon 2 will need something else.

FIFA will go up to former Winning Eleven levels thanks to portability, Konami cries!

Serious, the first offical release of Rocket League in Japan is the Switch version,
that one could do well.

Wait Rocket League is not on JP PSN? Wow lol
 

BlackJace

Member
Dec 24, 2011
16,521
0
0
Mobius
Pokemon is getting way too many releases. If Pokemon Switch comes out in 2018 it will be 3 years in a row. US/UM may belong to the same generation but they are as main as they can be. Sales will be affected in a small or big way,

Since they said next gen Pokemon might be more than a year away, I'm thinking US/UM and mobile are intended to hold the fanbase over while next gen is in development.

Basically, I'm saying that Pokemon's output should slow down after US/UM
 

Sandfox

Member
Jan 25, 2012
22,624
0
0
Pokemon is getting way too many releases. If Pokemon Switch comes out in 2018 it will be 3 years in a row. US/UM may belong to the same generation but they are as main as they can be. Sales will be affected in a small or big way,

I'm expecting it in 2019 with 2018 material focusing on the additions brought on by USUM.
 

Exterminieren

Banned
Mar 1, 2011
15,691
0
0
A new Pokémon generation in 2018 would fit with their rates of Pokémon reveals and their comments today.

They'd have to speed the anime up a bit, but that's the only real problem.
 

Principate

Saint Titanfall
Dec 17, 2011
16,590
0
570
Federation Force flopped because of the reactions.
You mean the same internet reactions that determined the success of all those recent ubisoft ip's some of which even reviewed poorly.

Or hell the switch being DoA.
 

Ōkami

Member
May 10, 2015
3,585
1
0
Pokémon went from a +5m seller to a sub 4 million seller between 2 generations, it could always go lower.

Also, Rocket League is technically on the Japanese Xbox store, but its the English version, its not on the Japanese PS Store at all, there's no localized version.

Seems like the Switch version will be the first, if its price at like 2000 yen it could to well.
 

Father_Brain

Banned
Jun 7, 2004
22,707
0
0
35
New York, NY
I think the big issue in getting early Japanese support for both PS4 and Switch is that they followed up PS3 and Wii U respectively. 3DS (following DS) and even Vita (following PSP) had no problem having much stronger 3rd party support from the outset. Even Wii U was stronger arguably before it launched.

Vita and Wii U had terrible third-party support from the outset. 3DS, no, but its poor early sales likely contributed to third parties being slow to get on board with Switch.
 

Takao

Banned
Mar 19, 2009
50,994
0
0
Toronto, Canada
Ōkami;240614784 said:
Serious, the first offical release of Rocket League in Japan is the Switch version,
that one could do well.

Ōkami;240640584 said:
Also, Rocket League is technically on the Japanese Xbox store, but its the English version, its not on the Japanese PS Store at all, there's no localized version.

Seems like the Switch version will be the first, if its price at like 2000 yen it could to well.

Fake news. It's been up on JPSN since 2015. It never charts on the digital downloads because it's no Minecraft.
 

noshten

Member
Oct 20, 2014
4,085
417
505
Sofia
- Skyrim will do well, but not incredibly so.
- Hard to predict Mario + Rabbids, but it is 2018 in Japan apparently.
- FIFA and Rocket League are both non-factors in Japan.

The big announcements for Switch in Japan were Yoshi, Kirby, and Pokemon... all 2018 at the earliest.

I think in my mind how western third parties do on the Switch in Japan will be a major factor in future support for the platform.

Ōkami;240614784 said:
I predict Skyrim will sell 6 million units on Japan this year, just on Switch, the added portabilty of a portable game will help and the tens of millions that will buy Splatoon 2 will need something else.

FIFA will go up to former Winning Eleven levels thanks to portability, Konami cries!

Serious, the first offical release of Rocket League in Japan is the Switch version,
that one could do well.

Ōkami;240640584 said:
Also, Rocket League is technically on the Japanese Xbox store, but its the English version, its not on the Japanese PS Store at all, there's no localized version.

Seems like the Switch version will be the first, if its price at like 2000 yen it could to well.

I mainly mentioned FIFA and Rocket League because they are very good multiplayer games. Bomberman R was able to get 100K in a couple of months with a price that's higher than Rocket League's.

To me Rocket League's potential on a handheld in Japan remains unknown, hence the question. I didn't even know it wasn't even physically released in Japan.

Since Nintendo is the one publishing these games in Japan in all likelihood - we can expect some marketing being put behind them.
 

Maxinas

Member
Mar 2, 2016
2,124
1
0
Pokemon is getting way too many releases. If Pokemon Switch comes out in 2018 it will be 3 years in a row. US/UM may belong to the same generation but they are as main as they can be. Sales will be affected in a small or big way,

Are you new to the pokemon scene?
2009-Pokemon Platinum
2010-Pokemon HG/SS
2011-Pokemon Black/White
2012-Pokemon B2/W2
2013-Pokemon X/Y
2014-Pokemon OR/AS
2015- No game after 6 years straight
2016-Pokemon S/M
2017-Pokemon US/UM
 

Man God

Non-Canon Member
Nov 2, 2007
70,821
1
1,260
Pokemon is getting way too many releases. If Pokemon Switch comes out in 2018 it will be 3 years in a row. US/UM may belong to the same generation but they are as main as they can be. Sales will be affected in a small or big way,

Doesn't really matter in this case if US/UM also outperform in the west. Pokémon Go is still going strong over here.
 

hiska-kun

Member
Mar 9, 2012
3,567
0
685
Spain
Are you new to the pokemon scene?
2009-Pokemon Platinum
2010-Pokemon HG/SS
2011-Pokemon Black/White
2012-Pokemon B2/W2
2013-Pokemon X/Y
2014-Pokemon OR/AS
2015- No game after 6 years straight
2016-Pokemon S/M
2017-Pokemon US/UM

Wrong, this is a Japanese thread.

2008-Pokemon Platinum
2009-Pokemon HG/SS
2010-Pokemon Black/White
2011-Nothing
2012-Pokemon B2/W2
2013-Pokemon X/Y
2014-Pokemon OR/AS
2015- No game after 3 years straight
2016-Pokemon S/M
2017-Pokemon US/UM
 

Ōkami

Member
May 10, 2015
3,585
1
0
Games for the biggest months of the year are interestingly missing.

I'd expect Dragon Quest XI to be on December, if it releases this year (which it really should as it wouldn't be that big of a deal next year) I don't think of Xenoblade 2 to be a big deal either, should be the worst selling game of all the ones here.

For comparison, this was the PS4's first year.

Missing the Yakuza launch title and Knack, PS4 didn't got a truly big game until Dragon Quest Heroes, a year after launch.

Switch surpassed 2014 hardware sales of the PS4 last week (PS4 sold 924k) and should be surpassing software sales with the launch of Splatoon 2 (Switch is at 1.5m, PS4 did 2.3m in 2014, 1.9m not counting Knack)
 

Skullwaker

Member
Dec 3, 2015
629
0
250
Texas
That comparison is very striking.

And Xenoblade 2 might not be a huge release like the others, but I could see it becoming the best selling entry in the series if received well. Maybe 200-250k this time around, which I don't think is negligible. I just wonder what is lined up for the remaining month. Skyrim maybe?

Edit: I also think Xeno2 has a chance of outselling FE Warriors (Switch) and Pokken DX, but we'll see.
 

jnWake

Member
Mar 30, 2013
4,440
1
0
I wonder if they'll truly leave November just for Xeno 2. Seems weird to not simply push Mario Odyssey there since it's a huge game and it'd leave them more time to produce stock.

I don't want to get hopeful but maybe there's an unannounced game coming November? It'd be weird tho since they'd have announced it today.
 

ggx2ac

Member
Apr 5, 2016
7,164
1
370
I just noticed. Since Super Mario Odyssey releases in October, shipments should be getting big at that time before holidays.

But for now I want to be focus on the shipments happening currently especially with ARMS releasing this week.
 

Jon Carter

Member
Jul 14, 2015
2,726
0
0
You mean the same internet reactions that determined the success of all those recent ubisoft ip's some of which even reviewed poorly.

Or hell the switch being DoA.

Well I hope the Internet reactions will make a MH XX Switch localization happen.

Huge dick move. It really feels like Capcom shitting on their fanbase.
 

Passose

Banned
Apr 9, 2017
1,218
0
0
releasing a month after the Mario launch could give Xenoblade 2 a push
Well I hope the Internet reactions will make a MH XX Switch localization happen.

Huge dick move. It really feels like Capcom shitting on their fanbase.
I think they have a reason for it though, releasing XX in the west could harm the sales of MHW
 

Vena

Member
Sep 2, 2014
16,385
0
0
I'll echo something Alberto said in the old MHW thread: Capcom is going to be watching DQXI sales very closely.

Will be interesting going forward!
 

ggx2ac

Member
Apr 5, 2016
7,164
1
370
I'll echo something Alberto said in the old MHW thread: Capcom is going to be watching DQXI sales very closely.

Will be interesting going forward!

?

I'm missing details.

Which version of DQXI and, in the west or Japan?
 

Vena

Member
Sep 2, 2014
16,385
0
0
?

I'm missing details.

Which version of DQXI and, in the west or Japan?

PS4, and Japan. Given the dates he provided for when he had heard of this title starting up, it was early into (or even before) the PS4's release and before it completely cratered for its entire first year.

Whatever DQXI manages, will be the upper bounds of anything Capcom can hope to accomplish if that and if DQXI fails to help the PS4 in the long-run (which is unlikely outside of a brief spike at and around release) their prospects in Japan will be curtailed accordingly and, likely, harshly from whenever this project was first greenlit to begin with and even recently.

I'll quote myself from the XX thread (which is just such a poor move by Capcom from an optics perspective):
This was greenlit before the Switch was even a solidified concept, the 3DS was winding down, the WiiU an unmitigated disaster, and before the PS4's anemic sales/market position in Japan became clear.

Times were different and games take a long time to make.

Capcom almost certainly wasn't anticipating their major platform for this title in Japan to to have basically shit the bed in an otherwise empty market for home consoles. (Its going to start slipping behind the PS3, and the PS3 was competing with and eclipsed by the Wii in its time.) But that's what it is now, and not what it was then.

I suspect, very much so, that they shifted focus westward through development as the market realities of Japan became clear because there was no real reversal of course and Japan was pretty much a lost cause.
 

Laplasakos

Member
Jan 11, 2017
935
8
210
^
I am afraid i have to disagree. Some of you are making huge fuss about PS4 falling behind PS3. A small number of units that will surely pass it again after DQXI doesn't make much difference. PS4 was way ahead of PS3 for more time plus it's selling more software. The comparison will be more meaningful (like were the system will settle) after fall/early 2018.

PS3 was competing with Wii but PS4 is competing with something much, much bigger. Shrinking market and mobile. In the end PS4 may fall short of PS3 numbers (8-9 million units) but this is way better than Wii-WiiU and better than 3DS were it's 10 millions short from it's predecessor. The decline will be nonexistenst basically, kinda funny when you think that after the first two months of PS4 in Japan, some people were predicting 5 million lifetime sales.

As for MH. MH World/5 could always be 3DS title or next portable game. By your saying, Capcom before making MH4 had only PSP viable option and it's successor yet they went with the most risky choice.
 

Vena

Member
Sep 2, 2014
16,385
0
0
I am afraid i have to disagree. Some of you are making huge fuss about PS4 falling behind PS3. A small number of units that will surely pass it again after DQXI doesn't make much difference. PS4 was way ahead of PS3 for more time plus it's selling more software. The comparison will be more meaningful (like were the system will settle) after fall/early 2018.

Relative software release times/hardware costs makes this completely moot. The PS4 was way ahead because it went through all of its software and multiple price-drops before the PS3 hit its FFXIII/Slim moment (and the PS3 launched at a terrible price), post that moment the PS3 very, very rapidly made up ground to the PS4's LTD. The software of the PS4 is indeed higher but it is not higher-per-title, that has proven itself to actually be rather low and the PS4 has been seeing the vast majority of the market's releases.

A momentary spike isn't in and of itself going to change the week to week performance, which is why I noted that unless DQXI changes the trajectories in the long term its basically just a errant spike on an otherwise set slope. Moreover, as we have now discussed multiple times, the PS4 has a very weak software line up ahead of it between DQXI and MHW, that will almost assuredly hurt said trajectory even further.

As for MH. MH World/5 could always be 3DS title or next portable game. By your saying, Capcom before making MH4 had only PSP viable option and it's successor yet they went with the most risky choice.

What? The series went through some rather peculiar movements during the post-PSP transition. Going to Wii then to 3DS, but the Wii was then a much healthier platform than the PS4 is now and the Wii was subsequently phased out for the 3DS which on paper would not have been a risky platform at all. Not by any logical standard following the utterly astronomical successes of the DS and major growth on the PSP.

The DS in its time had been unable to run MH.
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Dec 17, 2008
11,738
0
0
Wrong, this is a Japanese thread.

2008-Pokemon Platinum
2009-Pokemon HG/SS
2010-Pokemon Black/White
2011-Nothing
2012-Pokemon B2/W2
2013-Pokemon X/Y
2014-Pokemon OR/AS
2015- No game after 3 years straight
2016-Pokemon S/M
2017-Pokemon US/UM

The difference this time is there might be a new generation just 2 years after S/M with no empty year.

US/UM is already 1 year earlier than the usual 2-year gap of third versions.
 

Vena

Member
Sep 2, 2014
16,385
0
0
If I'm not mistaken the PS3 sold quite a bit better in the latter half of its life in Japan than it did in the first half (hardware and software). At this point, it's possible the PS4 has already peaked.

The PS3 hit its stride at the Slim/FFXIII release, and it became rather stable from then on continuing to do well for years after that. Its launch was a clusterfuck.
 

Laplasakos

Member
Jan 11, 2017
935
8
210
Relative software release times/hardware costs makes this completely moot. The PS4 was way ahead because it went through all of its software and multiple price-drops before the PS3 hit its FFXIII/Slim moment (and the PS3 launched at a terrible price), post that moment the PS3 very, very rapidly made up ground to the PS4's LTD. The software of the PS4 is indeed higher but it is not higher-per-title, that has proven itself to actually be rather low and the PS4 has been seeing the vast majority of the market's releases.

Six months after, i wouldn't say that PS3 very rapidly made up, especially by a small number of units. As for the software, as long as it's higher it's okay. I don't understand why you mention higher per title (except from trying to strength your opinion) because it's completely irrelevant in terms of profit/revenue(and not only).

A momentary spike isn't in and of itself going to change the week to week performance, which is why I noted that unless DQXI changes the trajectories in the long term its basically just a errant spike on an otherwise set slope. Moreover, as we have now discussed multiple times, the PS4 has a very weak software line up ahead of it between DQXI and MHW, that will almost assuredly hurt said trajectory even further.

And that's why i said we should wait for fall/early 2018 in order to see how PS4 will fare against by PS3. By then, any dust that was cause of different games/spikes will have settle and we can discuss this better.

What? The series went through some rather peculiar movements during the post-PSP transition. Going to Wii then to 3DS, but the Wii was then a much healthier platform than the PS4 is now and the Wii was subsequently phased out for the 3DS which on paper would not have been a risky platform at all. Not by any logical standard following the utterly astronomical successes of the DS and major growth on the PSP.

The only peculiar was Monster Hunter Tri. 3DS on paper wasn't a risky platform and of course neither was Switch on paper when Capcom started the development of MH World.
 

Vena

Member
Sep 2, 2014
16,385
0
0
Six months after, i wouldn't say that PS3 very rapidly made up, especially by a small number of units. As for the software, as long as it's higher it's okay. I don't understand why you mention higher per title (except from trying to strength your opinion) because it's completely irrelevant in terms of profit/revenue(and not only).

I mean, I am defining rapid relative to weekly sales % of numbers. With baselines as low as we're discussing here, "big" is ultimately relatively small and takes time to make up differences but its still rapid. The PS3 picked up speed and caught up to the PS4 *after* the PS4 had already exhausted what could potentially be its peak before the PS3 ever even hit its own.

Software totals being higher is good on the broad. Software titles per title struggling to reach high numbers is bad for specific large franchises like, say, FF or MH. Most companies don't generally enjoy major declines on their marquee titles.

The only peculiar was Monster Hunter Tri. 3DS on paper wasn't a risky platform and of couurse neither was Switch on paper when Capcom started the development of MH World.

Indication suggests that the Switch likely was not yet a thing, so not quite.

As I said, I think they greenlit MHW in a time when, basically, they were shooting blind and expected the PS4 to not crater out of the gate. After said cratering and paltry "recovery" they shifted focus to where the PS4 was successful and moved their attention westward. Hence the E3 reveal, the E3 information and so on.
 

Laplasakos

Member
Jan 11, 2017
935
8
210
I mean, I am defining rapid relative to weekly sales % of numbers. With baselines as low as we're discussing here, "big" is ultimately relatively small and takes time to make up differences but its still rapid. The PS3 picked up speed and caught up to the PS4 *after* the PS4 had already exhausted what could potentially be its peak before the PS3 ever even hit its own.

Software totals being higher is good on the broad. Software titles per title struggling to reach high numbers is bad for specific large franchises like, say, FF or MH. Most companies don't generally enjoy major declines on their marquee titles.

Okay, fair point.

Indication suggests that the Switch likely was not yet a thing, so not quite.

As I said, I think they greenlit MHW in a time when, basically, they were shooting blind and expected the PS4 to not crater out of the gate. After said cratering and paltry "recovery" they shifted focus to where the PS4 was successful and moved their attention westward. Hence the E3 reveal, the E3 information and so on.

Maybe you are right but i think that Capcom's decision to put MH World on PS4 was more because they wanted to strength the franchise in the west and not because they were expecting some amazing performance from PS4 in Japan.
 

jman2050

Member
May 18, 2005
31,847
0
0
Maybe you are right but i think that Capcom's decision to put MH World on PS4 was more because they wanted to strength the franchise in the west and not because they were expecting some amazing performance from PS4 in Japan.

Well if that's truly the case then the only real difference is that it simply makes Capcom stupid rather than unlucky.
 

Vena

Member
Sep 2, 2014
16,385
0
0
Maybe you are right but i think that Capcom's decision to put MH World on PS4 was more because they wanted to strength the franchise in the west and not because they were expecting some amazing performance from PS4 in Japan.

This would also have been greenlit before any of that became clear. If that was their decision making at that time, then they are either farseers or idiots.