Lostconfused
Member
Uropoke or the Slowboros?
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Uropoke or the Slowboros?
LordRaptor
Member
So regarding Switch stock issues... using JP numbers only, as they are the least speculative;
Do we think ~25k a week is their manufacturing capability, and previous higher shipments were releasing units stockpiled prior to launch?
Or is it more likely their manufacturing capability is closer to ~50k a week, and they have been stockpiling around 50% of units produced for release alongside tentpole titles, such as the upcoming ARMs? (or are being diverted to other markets)
If their production capability is ~50k a week, do we then expect them to begin stockpiling again for tentpole releases (splatoon 2) and end of year sales, and to see 25k as a baseline for most of the rest of the year (or until such time as the lead time for production ramp up is met)?
Stockpiling 25k a week from pretty much now will only put ~600k into the channel for the holidays, which would still be severely supply constrained.
Do we think ~25k a week is their manufacturing capability, and previous higher shipments were releasing units stockpiled prior to launch?
Or is it more likely their manufacturing capability is closer to ~50k a week, and they have been stockpiling around 50% of units produced for release alongside tentpole titles, such as the upcoming ARMs? (or are being diverted to other markets)
If their production capability is ~50k a week, do we then expect them to begin stockpiling again for tentpole releases (splatoon 2) and end of year sales, and to see 25k as a baseline for most of the rest of the year (or until such time as the lead time for production ramp up is met)?
Stockpiling 25k a week from pretty much now will only put ~600k into the channel for the holidays, which would still be severely supply constrained.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
Missing the point. It was claimed SW is like the PS4, yet the comparison was had with Switch missing numerous Year 2 Japanese console titles with the PS4 missing numerous Year 1 Japanese console titles.
There were very few PS3 Japanese games that missed PS4 in its 2nd Year, probably could count it in one hand.
It will be interesting to see how many Japanese games the Switch will miss in its 2nd Year.
Irrelevant to the discussion at hand.
Ok. I thought pointing out how weak PS4's 3rd party support was 1st year was pretty germane, but ok.
Onto my other, narrower point- you're cherry picking franchises to try and make a point. I could easily point to Monster Hunter, Tales, and Dragon Quest as franchises appearing earlier on Switch to make the opposite point.
Skullwaker
Member
I didn't miss the point. Your examples were bad. If you want to substantiate your argument, pick better examples. Using Code Vein especially is pretty embarrassing.
Bolded: your bias is showing.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
Once again missing the point. Just look at releases by year and see how many come to each platform and how many titles that could come to said platform but are missed. I remember some saying SW could potentially get a lot of PS4 games.
Announcements since post launch/March:
Fate/excella
Nights of Azure 2
Nobunagas Ambition
Anonymous Code
Lost Sphear
Yessssss
You really shouldn't bother. Dude used Yakuza 0 as evidence of the Switch not being supported a while back.
Calm Mind
Member
MH5
Thats incorrect.
The DBZ game is early 2018, not 2017
You can make a clear comparison to DBZ Xenoverse which came to the PS4 in early 2015.
Ace Combat 7, another 2018 game missing the Switch.
Naruto Shinobi Strikers is most likely 2018 and is again missing the Switch, whereas Naruto Ultimate Ninja Storm 4 made it to the PS4 in 2015.
Code Vein is a 2018 game as well. We'll see if it comes to the Switch or not.
These are 2018 games, so the comparison should be with PS4 2015, which had decent Japanese support.
I nearly fell out of my chair laughing.
SS
ßig
Unconfirmed Member
Reality has a Nintendo bias.
Regarding third party announcements, I think its pretty clear that the Switch has yet to prove itself as a platform for bigger budget ips. Its not easy to make an investment for the Switch when the userbase is still so low and Nintendo not being able to ship a decent supply at the moment. Once it takes off with enough supply, thats when we will see more announcements. There will surely be a publisher who will take a risk and other publishers will observe the results. A lot of Japanese publishers are more snd more focused on the west (besides mobile) and they dont need the Switch at the moment.
NIS/NISA seems to be the first major pivot (outside of indies) given what ani has been saying, and the discussion on D5 (amongst others, like Puyo-Puyo) having over-performed in the west by a non-negligible degree.
From there, I'd suspect we'll see as you say for a while longer with some logical if statements along the lines of:
That should be a generally good rule of thumb for announcements. That dynamic will likely change in some ways once the Switch has inevitably passed the PS4 and later eclipsed its LTD, but for now this is what to look for in the coming months.
I wouldn't call it a bias. Sony torched their prospects on their own with that bungled mess of a platform, the Vita.
Unless Sony is Nintendo biased and self-sabotaged, of course.
Sony pretty much set the torch to most everything in Japan that was not part of Sony Financial Holdings. Don't think they did it for Nintendo's sake though.
Becuase that would mean there won't be a more traditional ti-
Ah, again, who cares, it's useless.
The rumor says the Switch will be getting an original MH as well so I think they'll be fine in that case lol.
Eolz
Member
Skullwaker
Member
Oregano gonna Oregano.
Unless that announcement isn't too far away it's still going to cause damage.
On another note someone who seems to have good info on Square Enix said DQXI isn't coming to Switch(in the west?).
Damage in what way?
Maybe, but maybe not. If MH worlds appeals as much to Japan as the frontier series I doubt we'll have an issue. That having been said I think it'll be a LITTLE more appealing than that in JP.
These threads will be even crazier if there's two MH.
If both consoles got a MH5, you could compare numbers, make some hottakes but it'd die down to a dull roar for a while.
if both get different games? The back and forth fanboying, saying X version shouldn't exist due to sales, or other console should get Y version due to reasons. X version is wasting resources when more Y version could be made. The gameplay nitpicking between the two games would be unheralded, and probably by people who don't even play MH. The two games' review threads would be a bloodbath more than any other MH game. If one does significantly better in the West, NPD threads would go crazy again.
....I lowkey want the rumor to be true. MC threads are already suffering, but the about of meltdowns in other threads would be entertaining.
If both consoles got a MH5, you could compare numbers, make some hottakes but it'd die down to a dull roar for a while.
if both get different games? The back and forth fanboying, saying X version shouldn't exist due to sales, or other console should get Y version due to reasons. X version is wasting resources when more Y version could be made. The gameplay nitpicking between the two games would be unheralded, and probably by people who don't even play MH. The two games' review threads would be a bloodbath more than any other MH game. If one does significantly better in the West, NPD threads would go crazy again.
....I lowkey want the rumor to be true. MC threads are already suffering, but the about of meltdowns in other threads would be entertaining.
I don't think you understand the nature of the relationship. Capcom needs Nintendo more than Nintendo needs Capcom. If the speculation is true, the only company that is going to be damaged by Capcom's decisions is Capcom (as usual).
It could definitely work out. PS4 has a huge userbase and if Capcom can tap into that the series has room for growth. Its a big if, obviously.
Next big Monster Hunter exclusive to Switch competitor will be seen as a vote of no confidence and other third parties will follow Capcom's lead. Even if a Switch Monster Hunter comes in a year or so that's a long time.
Eolz
Member
Verendus?
edit: joking, but either it's not coming to the switch at all, either it's not coming to the west at all. Can't see Nintendo nor Sony skipping on their versions.
Sure, if they some how reach 400% growth in the western market and get someone to pay for advertising and localization.
I could see Sony paying for advertising. And I also firmly believe the series will continue in Japan in portable form. We'll see.
So you're just trolling then. I refuse to believe you actually think this.
On mobile and can't find original post but it was this guy who Nirolak seems to somewhat believe http://m.neogaf.com/showpost.php?p=239491147
Yeah, advertising I can easily see Sony footing the bill for that, the growth on the other hand... Capcom is crazy, and I don't have much faith in Capcom making good business decisions but even I doubt they would drop Japan portables. That'd be too much.
Haha, did I just see Capcom and lead in the same sentence?
Skullwaker
Member
Yeah, 3rd parties should definitely look to Capcom for what business decisions to make. The company that can't meet their own estimates for their games.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
It ain't even E3 and I've already won the bet hahahaha
Don't you see? They're not biased....just realistic....lmao. Come on people, have some self awareness if you're going to name others.
Don't worry mate. I'll still give you that shoutout in the MH PS4 reveal thread.
Don't you see? They're not biased....just realistic....lmao. Come on people, have some self awareness if you're going to name others.
Don't worry mate. I'll still give you that shoutout in the MH PS4 reveal thread.
The irony.
Skullwaker
Member
Both the definition of jumping the gun at any and every chance.
You made a bet that Capcom would file a trademark for Monster Hunter: World? Color me impressed.
Eolz
Member
Thanks! Seems that he's credible for S-E yeah (not necessarily the rest).
We really need to start some dictionary about those threads, so people understand "couple", "heatwave", and "destiny-like numbers" as well.