There's one thing that needs to be said.
Yes, many third parties were late to the party (!!!) with Wii.
But in my opinion many core games bombed because by the time they came to the market, the Wii audience had significantly changed compared to the early period and was basically a weird (?) mixture of casual and Nintendo enthusiasts.
Current Switch lineup seems *very* different to me right now (and I'm sure this affects the audience for obvious reasons) and unless a huge casual shift happens, I think even in the worse case scenario the outcome might diverge a lot from what we experienced in 2009-10 for this reason.
This is a point I wanted to expand upon a bit on my follow-up post, but then I thought it was already far too long.
Basically, not only I believe Switch's current first year lineup is extremely laser-focused (fewer games, but potentially all good / great sellers), but I also think what Nintendo is doing is fostering different mainstream / core audiences right from the get go, with a bigger emphasis on the "core" side of the spectrum compared to other recent Nintendo platforms in their first year, especially the Wii.
In my earlier posts on the matter, I've already stated how I believe the Wii in Japan had some problems to sell specific third party content from the get go, problems that then became stronger as time went by, due also to third party's slowness in bringing more important games on the system with a bigger frequency. Well, IMHO it's correlated to how Nintendo shaped up the userbase in its first year. Let's give a further look at Wii's first year lineup
The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess {2006.12.02}
WarioWare: Smooth Moves {2006.12.02}
Wii Sports {2006.12.02}
Wii Play {2006.12.02}
Pokemon Battle Revolution {2006.12.14}
Excite Truck {2007.01.18}
Fire Emblem: Radiant Dawn {2007.02.22}
Eyeshield 21: Field no Saikyou Senshi Tachi {2007.03.08}
Super Paper Mario {2007.04.19}
Big Brain Academy: Wii Degree {2007.04.26}
Donkey Kong Barrel Blast {2007.06.28}
Mario Party 8 {2007.07.26}
Endless Ocean {2007.08.02}
Mario Strikers Charged {2007.09.20}
Super Mario Galaxy {2007.11.1}
Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games {2007.11.22}
Wii Fit {2007.12.1}
I've already talked about the major gap between important releases from Mario Party 8 to Super Mario Galaxy, but the other element I wanted to discuss is how casual-oriented is this first-party lineup. More specifically, the amount of more "casual-focused" (which is different from "core-focused" and "bridge games") titles among the major early content.
Wii Sports
Wii Play
WarioWare: Smooth Moves*
Big Brain Academy: Wii Degree
Mario Party 8*
Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games
Wii Fit
* these games are potentially a bit less casual-focused due to being parts of older franchises (especially MP8), but I suppose they still fit in this cathegory
Basically, over 1/3rd of Nintendo's first year lineup was made of casual-oriented games. This worked splendidly in attracting a big amount of customers pretty fast even in Japan, but I believe it also created a problem: Wii Japanese users were far more on the casual side than what we've seen in both US and Europe. Or, to put it better: Nintendo obtained to bring to the system both Nintendo-specific fans and more casual customers, but failed to attract other audiences in satisfactory ways. Again, third parties have their responsibilities by not embracing it as fast as they could, but it's not completely their fault because, aside from Dragon Quest Swords, the two RE games and the late port of Budokai Tenkaichi 2, several other games saw difficulties in selling on the system. And yes, the Wii first year lineup was basically identical in all territories, but while Americans and Europeans embraced it so much that the platform was able to sell different kinds of games from different franchises (even less known stuff), this didn't happen in Japan. IMHO, again, due to how the DS was already well established as the brand new hotness for everyone, and the PSP starting to gain more grounds as time went by. Personally, I believe the Western's preference for home systems by the less-casual audiences (not core, just less-casual) helped the Wii in having more types of customers from the get go.
As just said, Wii also obtained to attract the more classic Nintendo-fans, given how its first year lineup was also made of classic Nintendo franchises, with some important installments of major franchises (Zelda: TP, Mario Galaxy).
Now, let's see the Switch's lineup again
The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild {2017.03.03}
1-2 Switch {2017.03.03}
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe {2017.04.28}
Arms {2017.06.16}
Splatoon 2 {2017.07.21}
Pokken Tournament DX {2017.09.22}
Super Mario Odyssey {2017.10.27}
Xenoblade Chronicles 2 - Fall 2017
As already said, 1-2 Switch is (for now) the only casual-oriented game here. But there's another difference to observe here. The composition of the lineup is rather interesting, because it has classic Nintendo franchises, but among them we have re-inventions of specific major brands. Zelda: Botw is an important re-invention of the franchise, and it caters to fans of big, sandbox/open-world experiences. Super Mario Odyssey, while using a different approach, is doing the same. Moreover, the important presence of online-multiplayer-focused games, as well as fighting games in the mix, plus Xenoblade Chronicles 2. Basically, Nintendo trying to attract different kinds of customers from the get-go. The Wii's lineup, while undoubtely strong and including some of the most shockingly huge games in the recent years, could be seen as lacking in variety from a less Nitnendo-enthusiast point of view. Switch's lineup is better on this specific front: not only classic franchises (also reinvented in some cases), but also new IPs, competitive games, and a JRPG that is probably Nintendo's own attempt to attract from early on the more classical RPG audience (see also how XB2 looks compared to XB and XBX). It's not a case that third party games like MHXX and Fire Emblem Warriors are coming so early in its lifespan, they are core-focused experiences trying to attract more of the hunting / Musou audience to the system (also, more classic experiences compared to Dragon Quest Sword and RE: The Umbrella Chronicles). The same for Pokken Tournament DX.
Basically, Switch's current first-party lineup is certainly not as mass-audience bombastic as the Wii's, but it's possible it's a better and more varied catalogue of titles for the kind of audiences that didn't make the jump to Wii back in 2007, the lack of which established a specific weak point of the sytem that then escalated later on (I don't think I need to remind you the size of the JRPG audience on Wii, for example). And it still seems to be attractive enough for a good amount of customers given the lines just to win lotteries (at least for now).
