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[hiska-kun]

Tsutaya's Ranking Week 30 2016

01./00. [PSV] Toukiden 2 <ACT> (Koei Tecmo)
02./00. [PS4] Toukiden 2 <ACT> (Koei Tecmo)
03./00. [3DS] Puzzle & Dragons X: God Chapter <RPG> (GungHo Online)
04./01. [3DS] Yo-Kai Watch 3: Sushi <RPG> (Level 5)
05./00. [3DS] Puzzle & Dragons X: Dragon Chapter <RPG> (GungHo Online)
06./02. [3DS] Yo-Kai Watch 3: Tempura <RPG> (Level 5)
07./00. [PS4] Idolm@ster Platinum Stars <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games)
08./03. [PSV] Ys VIII: Lacrimosa of Dana <RPG> (Nihon Falcom)
09./00. [PS3] Toukiden 2 <ACT> (Koei Tecmo)
10./14. [3DS] Kirby: Planet Robobot <ACT> (Nintendo)
11./00. [PS4] Idolm@ster Platinum Stars (Platinum Box) <ETC> (Bandai Namco Games)
12./07. [WIU] Minecraft: Wii U Edition <ADV> (Microsoft Game Studios)
13./05. [3DS] Sumikko Gurashi: Mura o Tsukurundesu <ETC> (Nippon Columbia)
14./06. [3DS] Story of Seasons: Trio of Towns <SLG> (Marvelous)
15./10. [PS4] Overwatch <ACT> (Square Enix)
16./11. [PSV] Minecraft: PlayStation Vita Edition <ADV> (Sony Computer Entertainment)
17./08. [WIU] Mario & Sonic at the Rio 2016 Olympic Games <SPT> (Nintendo)
18./04. [PS4] Black Rose Valkyrie <RPG> (Compile Heart)
19./12. [3DS] Taiko no Tatsujin: Don Don! Mystery Adventure <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games)
20./23. [3DS] Culdcept Revolt <TBL> (Nintendo)

 

[casiopao]

How much truth is there to what people say about JP gamers not caring for open worlds? Are the cross-media efforts actually reaching anyone new? Is Japan having a favorable impression of the trailers and demos? How many Final Fantasy fans are satisfied by the mobile games, or even prefer the direction they've taken? I haven't paid too much attention to FFXV, but to me it seems like it's trying to appeal to western fans without shedding its JP roots. Which isn't necessarily a bad thing, but Square doesn't seem to have mixed these appeals very well.

I'm also of the opinion that Square isn't very good at managing their console brands (JP or western), even if they've gotten their expectations in check as of late. Thankfully they're doing perfectly fine on mobile, so they're perfectly safe and fine unlike Capcom. Thank goodness for phones.

Ummm. GTA and Witcher did well in Japan though? I feel FFXV problem is quite simple here. The Japanese fans just don't feel the hype i guess? The decline of console market+ FF13 sour the hardcore fans a lot+rising of mobile gaming+paradigm shift in the character which all male.

All of those aspect i feel is the main reason on why FFXV is not going to be as big as FF13 at any way..

 

[Sterok]

Tsutaya's Ranking Week 30 2016

01./00. [PSV] Toukiden 2 <ACT> (Koei Tecmo)
02./00. [PS4] Toukiden 2 <ACT> (Koei Tecmo)
03./00. [3DS] Puzzle & Dragons X: God Chapter <RPG> (GungHo Online)
04./01. [3DS] Yo-Kai Watch 3: Sushi <RPG> (Level 5)
05./00. [3DS] Puzzle & Dragons X: Dragon Chapter <RPG> (GungHo Online)
06./02. [3DS] Yo-Kai Watch 3: Tempura <RPG> (Level 5)
07./00. [PS4] Idolm@ster Platinum Stars <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games)
08./03. [PSV] Ys VIII: Lacrimosa of Dana <RPG> (Nihon Falcom)
09./00. [PS3] Toukiden 2 <ACT> (Koei Tecmo)
10./14. [3DS] Kirby: Planet Robobot <ACT> (Nintendo)
11./00. [PS4] Idolm@ster Platinum Stars (Platinum Box) <ETC> (Bandai Namco Games)
12./07. [WIU] Minecraft: Wii U Edition <ADV> (Microsoft Game Studios)
13./05. [3DS] Sumikko Gurashi: Mura o Tsukurundesu <ETC> (Nippon Columbia)
14./06. [3DS] Story of Seasons: Trio of Towns <SLG> (Marvelous)
15./10. [PS4] Overwatch <ACT> (Square Enix)
16./11. [PSV] Minecraft: PlayStation Vita Edition <ADV> (Sony Computer Entertainment)
17./08. [WIU] Mario & Sonic at the Rio 2016 Olympic Games <SPT> (Nintendo)
18./04. [PS4] Black Rose Valkyrie <RPG> (Compile Heart)
19./12. [3DS] Taiko no Tatsujin: Don Don! Mystery Adventure <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games)
20./23. [3DS] Culdcept Revolt <TBL> (Nintendo)

Poor P&D. From a million seller to this.

My open world question was genuine, not rhetorical by the way. I've heard that a lot, but from recent successes like GTAV and W3 I've been doubting that myself. At worst I think they're like multiplayer shooters. Not inherently unpopular, but there hasn't been much that directly appeals to them like shooters haven't directly appealed to Japan until Splatoon. I wouldn't know if FFXV is an open world that particularly appeals to them (or the west for that matter).

 

[Scum]

It's your time to shine, Itou. #FFXVI

 

[BluePikmin11]

http://nintendoeverything.com/famitsus-most-wanted-games-73116/

Final Fantasy XV is the most wanted game in Japan for the weeks July 14-20.

I feel like the hype is real in Japan.

Also Snack World is also there, but its really low on the list. Not much interest as of yet.

 

[Nirolak]

The Famitsu hype lists are basically as useful as taking a GAF opinion poll.

While S-E had been expanding the game with movie and anime, some don't even know the anime exist lol. And the more casual just said, i would love to try the game maybe in the future but right now, i am more occupied with my smartphone game lol. So that is that too.T_T

So, honest question. What's the larger anime bump we've ever seen for a game that wasn't targeted at children?

 

[casiopao]

It's your time to shine, Itou. #FFXVI

Well, first they need to make sure that FF7 Remake is not a disaster first lol.

And then, they will need to come out with FF Versus 15 first then retooled it into FF16 lol.

Poor P&D. From a million seller to this.

My open world question was genuine, not rhetorical by the way. I've heard that a lot, but from recent successes like GTAV and W3 I've been doubting that myself. At worst I think they're like multiplayer shooters. Not inherently unpopular, but there hasn't been much that directly appeals to them like shooters haven't directly appealed to Japan until Splatoon. I wouldn't know if FFXV is an open world that particularly appeals to them (or the west for that matter).

If they release this game last year rather than Mario edition from the first, i feel they will be able to avoid this huge drop here.

The release of this title sadly faced tons of problem which last year it does not faced.
P&D franchise power is waning.T_T
There have been 2 P&D game in 3DS.
3DS software sales number had fallen quite badly compared to years before.T_T
The anime failed to rejuvenate the IP popularity.

which is probably why the number had falled this badly.T_T

I agree with your view there. I believe Japan gamers never don't like Open World here. It is just that the Japanese company simply still unable to find the "formula" which most japanese gamers loved. If company is able to add twist into Open World just like how Splatoon add twist to third person shooter, i can see it doing really well too.

The Famitsu hype lists are basically as useful as taking a GAF opinion poll.


So, honest question. What's the larger anime bump we've ever seen for a game that wasn't targeted at children?

Isn't that the main problem here? If FF main target is not children, i don't find the anime as good moves at all as the adult in Japan which is the main target for the game, is not going to be interested with the anime or don't had enough time to invest themselves into the anime thanks to their working lifestyle.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

The Japanese fans just don't feel the hype i guess? The decline of console market+ FF13 sour the hardcore fans a lot+rising of mobile gaming+paradigm shift in the character which all male.

How is The decline of console a Problem if PS4 is doing The Same of PS3 Launch allinied?

 

[hiska-kun]

The Famitsu hype lists are basically as useful as taking a GAF opinion poll.

Famitsu's Polls will save FFXV.

 

[Man God]

How is The decline of console a Problem if PS4 is doing The Same of PS3 Launch allinied?

PS3...was the secondary console last gen in Japan.

 

[Sage00]

The Famitsu hype lists are basically as useful as taking a GAF opinion poll.


So, honest question. What's the larger anime bump we've ever seen for a game that wasn't targeted at children?

Is The Last Remnant still showing up on that list? lol

 

[Nirolak]

Isn't that the main problem here? If FF main target is not children, i don't find the anime as good moves at all as the adult in Japan which is the main target for the game, is not going to be interested with the anime or don't had enough time to invest themselves into the anime thanks to their working lifestyle.

I guess my feeling is that by the time someone is an adult - or even a teenager - they're no longer making purchasing decisions based upon "I love this anime and want the game it's tied too!!!!" and instead just deciding if they want the game based on its own merits.

Now, I feel that's a bit different with an f2p mobile game where the barrier to trying a product is zero, but for retail products, an anime doesn't strike me as something that's going to really launch a teenage or adult franchise into the stratosphere.

Similarly, licensed games imploded in the West as the core retail audience went from being kids to teens to 18-35 year old adults. The remaining licensed games that succeed are the ones that are actually premium products in their own right.

So, wheeling this back to Final Fantasy XV, these kinds of promotional efforts strike me as something that raise awareness that the product exists, but the product itself has to appear interesting and then deliver in order to actually get sales.

Is The Last Remnant still showing up on that list? lol

I think that got removed when it was finally officially canceled.

 

[Ōkami]

The last not children game that saw a bump in sales thanks to an anime was Persona 4 Golden, that anime as a whole would help the Persona brand grow a lot.

Final Fantasy is already huge, an online only anime that has 10 minute episodes released months apart would never do anything to expand the audience.

 

[Nirolak]

Oh, right, that's the """anime""" haha. I thought there might be something more tangible later I had not heard of.

 

[mrjohill]

Is The Last Remnant still showing up on that list? lol

They should give the last remnant series another shot. I really enjoyed it

 

[Ryng_tolu]

PS3...was the secondary console last gen in Japan.

Ok... So?

We Are talking about The reasons of why Final Fantasy is bombing.

Considering Playstation is The only platform for Final Fantasy in Japan, who cares about The rest?

 

[casiopao]

How is The decline of console a Problem if PS4 is doing The Same of PS3 Launch allinied?

PS3 is not the main console last gen during that time though.T_T

I guess my feeling is that by the time someone is an adult - or even a teenager - they're no longer making purchasing decisions based upon "I love this anime and want the game it's tied too!!!!" and instead just deciding if they want the game based on its own merits.

Now, I feel that's a bit different with an f2p mobile game where the barrier to trying a product is zero, but for retail products, an anime doesn't strike me as something that's going to really launch a teenage or adult franchise into the stratosphere.

Similarly, licensed games imploded in the West as the core retail audience went from being kids to teens to 18-35 year old adults. The remaining licensed games that succeed are the ones that are actually premium products in their own right.

So, wheeling this back to Final Fantasy XV, these kinds of promotional efforts strike me as something that raise awareness that the product exists, but the product itself has to appear interesting and then deliver in order to actually get sales.


I think that got removed when it was finally officially canceled.

Actually i just remembered one closest example here. Jojo Battle All Star. The anime is soo good on tickling all the old fans into purchasing that farce of a product which is called Jojo Battle All Star only to get one of the biggest backlash i had ever see on a game lol.

So, while i think it is rare, there is some anime targeted on adult can successfully pull adult market.

Correct me here if i am wrong too. Isn't Gundam Unicorn doing well on the OVA actually also increases the sales of Gundam Unicorn the Video Game by From Software there even when the gameplay is mediocre.T_T

I do agree that what makes it success is not going to be awareness here. But simply a great product as Final Fantasy name itself is already damn huge.

Ok... So?

We Are talking about The reasons of why Final Fantasy is bombing.

Considering Playstation is The only platform for Final Fantasy in Japan, who cares about The rest?

I am just saying that the console market is not as huge as the old times which is why that is one of factor which can lead to FF underperform but there are still many other factors which can cause it to underperform which many times had been explained.

 

[AdventureRacing]

Ummm. GTA and Witcher did well in Japan though? I feel FFXV problem is quite simple here. The Japanese fans just don't feel the hype i guess? The decline of console market+ FF13 sour the hardcore fans a lot+rising of mobile gaming+paradigm shift in the character which all male.

All of those aspect i feel is the main reason on why FFXV is not going to be as big as FF13 at any way..

Speaking of GTA, it's a pretty crazy time when the next installments of FF may not outsell the last version of GTA. I think few would have predicted that coming a few years ago.

 

[Nirolak]

Actually i just remembered one closest example here. Jojo Battle All Star. The anime is soo good on tickling all the old fans into purchasing that farce of a product which is called Jojo Battle All Star only to get one of the biggest backlash i had ever see on a game lol.

So, while i think it is rare, there is some anime targeted on adult can successfully pull adult market.

Correct me here if i am wrong too. Isn't Gundam Unicorn doing well on the OVA actually also increases the sales of Gundam Unicorn the Video Game by From Software there even when the gameplay is mediocre.T_T

I do agree that what makes it success is not going to be awareness here. But simply a great product as Final Fantasy name itself is already damn huge.

I guess my distinction here would be that I feel those are actually games that sold based on the combination of the developer's reputation (people knew CyberConnect2 and From Software had made very well received games for their target audiences) combined with an IP people were excited about and they bought in on the strength of that.

This is similar to how Musou games tend to attract a large audience for the first outing since people pretty much know what they're getting and think it would be a fun (one time) experience (until they get burnt out on too many similar games if they like multiple used IPs).

For Final Fantasy XV, it's a video game IP that has a handful of 10 minute webisodes. The scenario I'm more looking at here is how Yo-Kai Watch (a video game first IP) actually started selling like crazy after its anime debuted, but in FFXV's case, I would expect the impact to not even be measurable (or existent) since what they're making is basically nonsense, and the game is targeted at teens and adults. Like, I suspect the entire impetus for even making those was someone did a market research survey and realized that many Japanese 12-15 year olds didn't actually know what Final Fantasy was, and they thought this would at least help a few of them get basic awareness that the brand existed in the cheapest way possible.

 

[Vena]

Ok... So?

We Are talking about The reasons of why Final Fantasy is bombing.

Considering Playstation is The only platform for Final Fantasy in Japan, who cares about The rest?

The market has shrunk, and even if the PS4 maintains a similar performance to that of the PS3, it doesn't mean that the audiences on it have remained static. If anything, such a huge and harsh contraction of the market, would make me think that the general "pie slice" of any given audience has also gotten smaller. What's left is a pie that's about as big as the PS3 was but the audiences therein have collapsed much as the market itself has. Basically, you've consolidated what's left of the market that used to be the X360, the PS3, and the Wii into the PS4. Everyone else moved on.

Final Fantasy bombing would be in part because of this. And if we break it down: many years have passed since a good FF game so the old audience may have grown old and moved on, younger audiences have not been exposed to good games in the series, and the audiences themselves have simply eroded away.

 

[Ōkami]

When looking at FFXV preorders I don't think just looking at console sales it's important, but also what audience is there given game sales.

Prior to the release of XIII of PS3 essentially every major PS2 franchise had major representation on the PS3, with the exception of Dragon Quest, so a big chunk of FF fans would already be on the system and would preorder it.

To say, there were alredy like 40 musou games on the system as well as plenty low key RPGs including Tales of Vesperia, enough to get plenty of RPG fans that would be interested on XIII already on the system.
Add that more casual series like Hot Shots Gold and Winning Eleven (which saw diminishing sales but still) and there was a much bigger audience for the game.
You also had brand new entries on Yakuza (which didn't had audience eaten with cross gen entries), Resident Evil, Devil May Cry and Metal Gear Solid, all released well before XIII, all series that would likely share fanbases with Final Fantasy, fans were already on PS3 before the release of XIII.

XV doesn't get that same push and worse of all has to deal with the poor reception of XIII.
Sure, there's stuff like Metal Gear Solid on the system the Souls games are a big deal and there are two on the system and now you actually have Dragon Quest, three games in fact, it's just not as big.

I'd pay close attention to how preorders change after Tales of Berseria and Persona 5 come out as that should get more fans on the console, not only on comgnet though, I'd love to see what GamesMaya has to say.

XV will at least end up outselling the first two games, what happens after that is anyones guess.

 

[Nirolak]

Monster Hunter Frontier Online 2 is dead, and it sounds like it died because the team wasn't making any meaningful progress, so I'm guessing that was not the Monster Hunter game scheduled for this year: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=212081409&postcount=74

Final Fantasy bombing would be in part because of this. And if we break it down: many years have passed since a good FF game so the old audience may have grown old and moved on, younger audiences have not been exposed to good games in the series, and the audiences themselves have simply eroded away.

I would say that the audience that made FF3 through FF12 major successes would presumably be the audience downloading Record Keeper and Brave Exvius a zillion times and then frequently putting them in the Top 10 grossing apps.

It stuck out to me when Square Enix mentioned that most teenagers listed Type-0 or Dissidia as their favorite games in the series because they hadn't really been exposed to much else, and that was already ~3+ years ago IIRC. That's a pretty sizable chunk of their target audience for the new games these days in Japan as well.

 

[Zolo]

It stuck out to me when Square Enix mentioned that most teenagers listed Type-0 or Dissidia as their favorite games in the series because they hadn't really been exposed to much else, and that was already ~3+ years ago IIRC.

That's uh.....concerning.

 

[Vena]

Monster Hunter Frontier Online 2 is dead, and it sounds like it died because the team wasn't making any meaningful progress, so I'm guessing that was not the Monster Hunter game scheduled for this year: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=212081409&postcount=74

At this point, I expect it at the supposed September reveal of the NX + 3DS as, apparently, its (the 3DS) going to be relevant into 2017 for the last bits of its swan song. Would make sense, I think. 2mil on the 3DS + NX is probably possible.

If it was anything else, I'd have expected it to see it by now. And, well, NX being a handheld this now seem like a no-brainer unless Capcom wishes to burn more money.

I would say that the audience that made FF3 through FF12 major successes would presumably be the audience downloading Record Keeper and Brave Exvius a zillion times and then frequently putting them in the Top 10 grossing apps.

It stuck out to me when Square Enix mentioned that most teenagers listed Type-0 or Dissidia as their favorite games in the series because they hadn't really been exposed to much else, and that was already ~3+ years ago IIRC.

Ya, as I said, they moved on from the console space and are now adults on mobile or whatnot. And as you show, kids just haven't been exposed to anything very memorable to even have all that of an attachment to the franchise.

 

[Man God]

It's actually very hard to find a MH title that isn't Stories that would sell around two million in that time period.

It's too high to be a PS4 remake of 4 or X. Same with just an NX version of the same.
It's too low to be MHXG on the 3DS. Waay too low if it's a cross generation version for 3DS/NX. It's none of the other spinoffs which can't do those numbers. Stories probably could on a good day...but they already said it isn't that game!

 

[Nirolak]

It's actually very hard to find a MH title that isn't Stories that would sell around two million in that time period.

It's too high to be a PS4 remake of 4 or X. Same with just an NX version of the same.
It's too low to be MHXG on the 3DS. Waay too low if it's a cross generation version for 3DS/NX. It's none of the other spinoffs which can't do those numbers. Stories probably could on a good day...but they already said it isn't that game!

What if it's a PS4/NX Monster Hunter game that's released in the West at the same time?

 

[Vena]

What if it's a PS4/NX Monster Hunter game that's released in the West at the same time?

I'd question why we haven't heard about it yet, I suppose. I would imagine Sony would be shouting from the rooftops if they had it in their stable, and they're not shy announcing games years in advance.

 

[Man God]

What if it's a PS4/NX Monster Hunter game that's released in the West at the same time?

I think the numbers they were looking for were Japan only, but that would work otherwise as long as it was MHXG/MHGU.

I think a global PS4 or NX launch of that title would do about 2 million on one of those platforms.

 

[Sterok]

How much would a 3DS/NX Monster Hunter ship in 2 weeks of a non-holiday month? Because if it is bound for NX that's probably all it'll have for the fiscal year.

 

[Vena]

How much would a 3DS/NX Monster Hunter ship in 2 weeks of a non-holiday month? Because if it is bound for NX that's probably all it'll have for the fiscal year.

Depends on when it launches to hit the fiscal year, but if its just an updated release of MHX(G), then two million on two the platforms (one brand new, small install) may not actually be unrealistic if it has like two-three weeks at market. Most of it would be expected from the 3DS, though.

 

[Nirolak]

I'd question why we haven't heard about it yet, I suppose. I would imagine Sony would be shouting from the rooftops if they had it in their stable, and they're not shy announcing games years in advance.

My thought process is mainly that Dead Rising 4 was announced for December at E3, and Resident Evil 7 was announced for January 2017 at E3 as well.

If you announced this in September, it'd be about the same.

I think the numbers they were looking for were Japan only, but that would work otherwise as long as it was MHXG/MHGU.

I think a global PS4 or NX launch of that title would do about 2 million on one of those platforms.

I'm not seeing a regional distinction here, but I could be missing the obvious: http://www.capcom.co.jp/ir/english/data/pdf/explanation/2015/full/explanation_2015_full_05.pdf

Depends on when it launches to hit the fiscal year, but if its just an updated release of MHX(G), then two million on two the platforms (one brand new, small install) may not actually be unrealistic if it has like two-three weeks at market. Most of it would be expected from the 3DS, though.

If they don't have an aggressive up front shipment plan, that would fit as well.

 

[Man God]

Yep that definitely looks like they're talking globally considering that 4 million title has to be RE7.

Yeah, I'm guessing it's most likely is MHXG then, probably as an NX launch period title. Could be the only game they're going slightly bullish on. It's completely underestimating what MHXG would do in Japan on the 3DS, let alone globally.

EDIT: The small shipment near the end of the FY idea could explain it as well.

 

[Vena]

My thought process is mainly that Dead Rising 4 was announced for December at E3, and Resident Evil 7 was announced for January 2017 at E3 as well.

If you announced this in September, it'd be about the same.

Fair point. Though I think DR4 being (temp) exclusive is part of the reason for its timing, while RE7 is trying to maintain a specific type of profile with the demo+build-up. Also the timing with September feels too perfect to not be something at the behest of Nintendo... would make for a definite good "first showing" on reveal in September and the NX is rather clearly looking home with wide eyes what with it being a ~handheld~ first.

Of course, I am coming at this from the mindset that we've seen the PS4 have *big games* games announced multiple years ahead of time to "save consoles in Japan" (or just in general), so that is skewing my view. But this is Capcom, and that was Sony/SE.

Definitely can't be a solo-NX titles, though, as that would mean it'd have to sell globally 2 million copies in like two weeks on a just released platform.

 

[Nirolak]

I think there has to be at least something odd about it, because they usually never localize the non-G versions, but they did that for Generations.

Maybe they feel an NX port is sufficient to resell the game overseas.

 

[hiska-kun]

Pokemon GO more than 60 million installs worldwide. More than $5 million customer spend per day, with a significant share coming from Japan.

https://www.appannie.com/insights/mobile-gaming/pokemon-go-continues-global-takeover-japan-launch/

I still remember when this app wasn't going to take over in Japan xD

 

[Sandfox]

Pokemon GO more than 60 million installs worldwide. More than $5 million customer spend per day, with a significant share coming from Japan.

https://www.appannie.com/insights/mobile-gaming/pokemon-go-continues-global-takeover-japan-launch/

I still remember when this app wasn't going to take over in Japan xD

Yeah, that was a weird discussion lol.

 

[Man God]

We still need to see how well Generations does in the west but it definitely shows that Capcom was satisfied with how well 4U did so much so that they did put out the base game for generations. Some people think its because Generations is just a "greatest hits game" and that they aren't making a G/U game, but there's no way that is the case after it did so well in Japan. X/Generations is clearly the successor to the Portable line of titles; same production team, same way they treat some of the in game mechanics, slightly easier difficulty.

 

[Nirolak]

Pokemon GO more than 60 million installs worldwide. More than $5 million customer spend per day, with a significant share coming from Japan.

https://www.appannie.com/insights/mobile-gaming/pokemon-go-continues-global-takeover-japan-launch/

I still remember when this app wasn't going to take over in Japan xD

To be fair to those people, it's down to #3!

Spoiler

#3 is still a ton of money.

 

[Vena]

Generations/X was too well received to be left hanging, I think. But Nirolak is right that it was unusual to get X and not XG released in the west.

Perhaps there is some merit to the idea that the NX could "resell" it again in the west, while 3DS/NX do ~two million~ in Japan in a short period of time if the launch coincides.

We still need to see how well Generations does in the west but it definitely shows that Capcom was satisfied with how well 4U did so much so that they did put out the base game for generations. Some people think its because Generations is just a "greatest hits game" and that they aren't making a G/U game, but there's no way that is the case after it did so well in Japan. X/Generations is clearly the successor to the Portable line of titles; same production team, same way they treat some of the in game mechanics, slightly easier difficulty.

It will definitely do solid numbers. All the signs are there that it had a good performance this month (and probably even got a decent boost from people just going out to buy Pokemon and 3DSes). It will likely be down from when it was a launch game for the N3DS, but it will still be in the ballpark of that performance.

 

[Sterok]

Maybe Nintendo just encouraged Capcom to release Generations in the west. They need every hit they can get for the 3DS after all, and it's probably going to end up being one of the larger 3DS games in 2016. Capcom would feel comfortable doing it if the next game is for NX so that milking complaints are lessened.

 

[Nirolak]

Okay, looking at the numbers for Generations, if they expect the game to do maybe 20% worse, and are releasing it near the middle of March, then Monster Hunter XG as a 3DS only, Japan only title might fit that fine too.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

Honestly i always though that Monster Hunter was gonna ne a 3DS+NX Game. Yup, i think is The most likely scenario.

 

[casiopao]

It's actually very hard to find a MH title that isn't Stories that would sell around two million in that time period.

It's too high to be a PS4 remake of 4 or X. Same with just an NX version of the same.
It's too low to be MHXG on the 3DS. Waay too low if it's a cross generation version for 3DS/NX. It's none of the other spinoffs which can't do those numbers. Stories probably could on a good day...but they already said it isn't that game!

Hmmm...... maybe another kind of spin-off i guess for NX? I remember Capcom said that they would love to avoid another MH4G declining sales? As Generations G surely won't do that well as there are only so much thing they can add.T_T

What if it's a PS4/NX Monster Hunter game that's released in the West at the same time?

How about NX/3DS title? Won't that it easily reachable number there?O_O

 

[Mory Dunz]

Geez that's unfortunate, the first mainline FF to not break a million (Since FF2), that makes me concerned for the future of the series.

BTW feel free to bump the classic NPD thread with questions/comments (I wish more ppl would bump the thread).

I would....if I had something to say.
I mostly look at legs of old games like OoT or whatever.

 

[Nirolak]

How about NX/3DS title? Won't that it easily reachable number there?O_O

The discussion started on the basis of the number being too small for a 3DS title and what would hypothetically get there if we assumed that to be true.

It just being low expectations for a 3DS game is the obvious Occam's Razor choice.

 

[casiopao]

The discussion started on the basis of the number being too small for a 3DS title and what would hypothetically get there if we assumed that to be true.

It just being low expectations for a 3DS game is the obvious Occam's Razor choice.

Considering how Capcom recently loved to low balled their estimation especially on MH, don't you think this can also happen again here?

 

[Jarod McChicken]

I'd question why we haven't heard about it yet, I suppose. I would imagine Sony would be shouting from the rooftops if they had it in their stable, and they're not shy announcing games years in advance.

A PS4 Monster Hunter announcement would fit better in a TGS conference, in one month or so. After all, Sony and Square Enix waited until September 2014 to announce Dragon Quest Heroes which was out on February 2015, that's not "announcing games years in advance" and that makes a great moment to remember ^_^

In any case, that 2 million MH title will probably be MHXG for 3DS, except it would be out in March 2017 instead of October 2016 (to let MH Stories breathe), hence the 2 million forecast.

 

[Otakumegane]

What's the last new ip to break 1.5mil on a home console in Japan? I want to contextualize splatoon with something comparable.

 

[Oregano]

What if it's a PS4/NX Monster Hunter game that's released in the West at the same time?

I still think that would be optimistic. I feel they'd be putting the bulk of expectation on the PS4 version there and I'm not sure it could shift that many units.

The discussion started on the basis of the number being too small for a 3DS title and what would hypothetically get there if we assumed that to be true.

It just being low expectations for a 3DS game is the obvious Occam's Razor choice.

I feel it's probably wise to have low expectations for 3DS at this point.

On the topic of FFXV I think Dragon Quest XI is going to have it worse. It's releasing seven years after DQIX so the audience for that game are probably not interested(and the mobile game has probably given them their fill) and the game is being released on the already declining 3DS and the stalling PS4. There's not even any sign its coming out soon. DQXI really should have been a 3DS game released ~3 years ago, it would have struck whilst the iron is hot.

 

[MANUELF]

What's the last new ip to break 1.5mil on a home console in Japan? I want to contextualize splatoon with something comparable.

Wii Party I believe