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Media Create Sales: Week 3, 2016 (Jan 18 - Jan 24)

Rymuth

Member
The Nintendo quarter report is almost here, only some hours to go... i wanna post my predictions.

Nintendo Q4 2015 (oct-Dec) prediction

3DS - 3.50 million
Wii U - 2.00 million

Pokémon XY - 14.50 million
Mario Kart 7 - 12.80 million
Super Smash Bros Wii U / 3DS - 12.70 million
Pokémon ORAS - 11.50 million
Mario Kart 8 - 6.80 million
Splatoon - 4.20 million
Mario Maker - 3.60 million

Someone wanna predict?
You underestimated MK8 but your Splatoon and Mario Maker were surprisingly close. :)

So are mine. Give credit where its due. :p

Ryng and I are clearly in the know!
Okay, fine! Just put down that Bombette! :(
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Splatoon is at 1.37m total at end of Dec 2015, so digital is around ~216k now.

That's if Nintendo sold all the copies they shipped to Japanese retailers. Sell-through should be high anyway, so I suppose it's at around 200k anyway.

And Minecraft: Wii U Edition is now better tha tthat.
 

Ryng_tolu

Banned
The Nintendo quarter report is almost here, only some hours to go... i wanna post my predictions.

Nintendo Q4 2015 (oct-Dec) prediction

3DS - 3.50 million
Wii U - 2.00 million

Pokémon XY - 14.50 million
Mario Kart 7 - 12.80 million
Super Smash Bros Wii U / 3DS - 12.70 million
Pokémon ORAS - 11.50 million
Mario Kart 8 - 6.80 million
Splatoon - 4.20 million
Mario Maker - 3.60 million

Someone wanna predict?

3DS - 3.60 million
WIU - 1.87 million

Pokémon XY - 14.46 million
Mario Kart 7 - 13.03 million
Super Smash Bros Wii U / 3DS - 12.53 million
Pokémon ORAS - 11.46 million
Mario Kart 8 - 7.24 million
Splatoon - 4.06 million
Mario Maker - 3.34 million
 

Ryng_tolu

Banned
You underestimated MK8 but your Splatoon and Mario Maker were surprisingly close. :)


Okay, fine! Just put down that Bombette! :(

Haha, yeah. :D

Mario Kart 8 legs are insane dude. And for insane, i mean IN-SA-NE.

Really... last year, October 2014 to December 2014, Mario Kart 8 sold 1.28 million.
This year, October to December 2015, Mario Kart 8 has sold 1.37 million.

Attach rate LT is now >57%, with >73% during last quarter.
 

Ryng_tolu

Banned
And people called me crazy... :p

CafDEHLWEAAlaVU.png:large
 

enishi

Member
Early Famitsu news for this week

Toukiden 2 for PS4, PS3 and PSV, it will be "open-world" type, no details yet
 

hiska-kun

Member
If Animal Crossing New Leaf shippes just 80k more during this last quarter, it will surpass one million sales shipped in the whole 2015 fiscal year (ending March 2016). Meaning that we'll get detailed shipment distribution.
The last shipped number for Japan was 4.840.000 by the end of March 2015, I think it already surpassed 5 million shipped, but we need a confirmation.

This quarter (Sep-Dec) the game shipped 420k worldwide, so 80k for the next 3 months is very possible to happen.
 
The way it translated for me was 60k in Japan, 112k total. If someone has properly translated it though, I'd love to know, so I can update the thread.

It's quite astonishing how NI went for being a promising company, releasing 100k+ games on a consistent basis, to a ultra-niche company that praises a game selling 48k (of course, being above expectations) - NI had smaller games before as well, but along with 100k+ sellers. The problem, in my opinion, was relying too much on the Disgaea franchise, and not being able to develop side franchises.
 

Rymuth

Member
That's exactly the same thing they said at the announcement then :p
Yeah we've known it was open world for a while now.

But Famitsu is promising 8 pages worth of content. Here's hoping for new screens and whether we can import our characters or not.
 
It's quite astonishing how NI went for being a promising company, releasing 100k+ games on a consistent basis, to a ultra-niche company that praises a game selling 48k (of course, being above expectations) - NI had smaller games before as well, but along with 100k+ sellers. The problem, in my opinion, was relying too much on the Disgaea franchise, and not being able to develop side franchises.

The only non-Disgaea 100k+ sellers they've had that I can find are these:

300 PS2 Phantom Brave 101,558 / 148,295
381 PS2 Makai Kingdom: Chronicles of the Sacred Tome 83,588 / 116,672

They've definitely over-relied on Disgaea, I agree. I can see why Yomawari is a success though. It's definitely better than some of their other recent new IP's:

356 PS3 The Guided Fate Paradox 24,903 / 40,054
559 PS3 Battle Princess of Arcadias 9,854 / 11,983

I think they relied on PS3 too long as well. Should've shifted more to other consoles sooner (there was very little in the first couple of years of Vita, for example).
 
The only non-Disgaea 100k+ sellers they've had that I can find are these:

300 PS2 Phantom Brave 101,558 / 148,295
381 PS2 Makai Kingdom: Chronicles of the Sacred Tome 83,588 / 116,672

They've definitely over-relied on Disgaea, I agree. I can see why Yomawari is a success though. It's definitely better than some of their other recent new IP's:

356 PS3 The Guided Fate Paradox 24,903 / 40,054
559 PS3 Battle Princess of Arcadias 9,854 / 11,983

I think they relied on PS3 too long as well. Should've shifted more to other consoles sooner (there was very little in the first couple of years of Vita, for example).

Indeed, but at the same time Disgaea was pulling 100k+ sales, and even PSP portings were selling quite well.
 

duckroll

Member
Nippon Ichi is a shitty company that had initial success because there were some talented people working at the company who could turn the president's witty humor and scenarios into actual games people wanted to buy. Then they got ambitious and instead of expanding with quality releases they shat away all their goodwill and even the talented staff left one after another. All that's left is a hollow shell of moe, ecchi, and shame.
 
That ultra-niche company also grown to be one of the main publishers of japanese games in Europe, I would recall kindly. I think I remember from the previous fiscal year that NIS America made more income than the japanese part of the company.

Anyway, despite all the doom and gloom since Disgaea 5 launched, 172K is most likely more than enough for such a game to be profitable :)
 

Fisico

Member
I think they relied on PS3 too long as well. Should've shifted more to other consoles sooner (there was very little in the first couple of years of Vita, for example).

Didn't Disgaea 5 suffered from being a PS4 exclusive in early 2015 ?
I agree with you otherwise though.
 
Didn't Disgaea 5 suffered from being a PS4 exclusive in early 2015 ?
I agree with you otherwise though.

Well, D5 sales cannot only be explained by this. D3 was released 1 year after PS3 launch (in a similar time period as D5 with respect to PS4 launch). I guess franchise fatigue is a more relevant issue here. D5 didn't sell badly, but horribly in Japan, and was partially saved by Western sales.
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
"Shipped" figures are usually physical retail copies only.

In my experience shipped usually applies to physical retail units. But my experience is mainly western reports so if that language doesn't apply to JP reports than my mistake

Which western video games company does that?
 
These Disgaea sales are prime example of people putting too much emphasis on JP/NPD sales.
While I do think, in more cases than not, we can get a good feel for performance of titles based on those regions, it is definitely important to consider those additional sales outside of those regions. A few here mock "WEST!" from time to time but, as we see with D5, the response can go from, "BOMB!" to "Oh, it did well!" just like that.
 

Vena

Member
These Disgaea sales are prime example of people putting too much emphasis on JP/NPD sales.

While I do think, in more cases than not, we can get a good feel for performance of titles based on those regions, it is definitely important to consider those additional sales outside of those regions. A few here mock "WEST!" from time to time but, as we see with D5, the response can go from, "BOMB!" to "Oh, it did well!" just like that.

If the online tracker for D5 is correct, then most of those overseas numbers come from the West, and the other 30k would easily be attributable to the EU which we also track with the PAL charts best we can.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
Ehh i thought Ninty should had quite a good profit here? Considering they just past holiday?

It looks like they're forecasting 50,000 million yen in operating income for the year.

That currently works out to about $415 million dollars. It's better than last year by about 10%, though obviously still way down from their highs.

They were losing money not so long ago, so this is a major improvement from that, but if we go back to the Wii/DS era, there were years they were making 555,000 million yen (or $4.6 billion) in operating profits.
 

HGH

Banned
If the online tracker for D5 is correct, then most of those overseas numbers come from the West, and the other 30k would easily be attributable to the EU which we also track with the PAL charts best we can.

I thought these sales also included Asia?
 
Well, D5 sales cannot only be explained by this. D3 was released 1 year after PS3 launch (in a similar time period as D5 with respect to PS4 launch). I guess franchise fatigue is a more relevant issue here. D5 didn't sell badly, but horribly in Japan, and was partially saved by Western sales.

franchise fatigue and probably what else came out at the same week/month

D3 launched when not many other PS3 games were coming out, only Devil May Cry 4 and Assassin's Creed came out in the same week and nothing else came out on the PS3 for basically the month before

D5 on the other hand came out in the same week as Bloodborne, One Piece Musou 4 and Senran Kagura. Not to mention all the stuff that came out weeks before (DQ Not|Musou, the Order (lol), God Eater 2: Rage Burst, whatever else I can't remember)

and this isn't taking into account what other games on other systems either

basically, D3 came out in a good time and D5 didn't
I mean we were all basically saying D5 was dead on arrival, when its release date got delayed once or twice last year thanks to everything else coming before or on the same day as it
 

Vena

Member
I thought these sales also included Asia?

If they do, it was a very small number because the "estimate" we have for D5 in NA is ~70k, so either EU sold next to nothing or Asia contributed little or both contributed equally small amounts (or the tracker is wonky).
 

Bruno MB

Member
PREDICTION LEAGUE FEBRUARY 2016

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Feb 01 to Feb 28):

[3DS] Shin Megami Tensei IV: Final (19 days) - 145.000
[PS4] Valkyria Chronicles Remastered (19 days) - 50.000
[PS4] Street Fighter V (11 days) - 65.000
[PSV] Kan Colle Kai (11 days) - 185.000
[PS4 + PS3 + PSV] Attack on Titan (11 days) - 90.000
[PS4 + PSV] Project Setsuna (11 days) - 55.000
[3DS] Nintendo 2DS [Pocket Monsters] (2 days) - 55.000
 

casiopao

Member
It looks like they're forecasting 50,000 million yen in operating income for the year.

That currently works out to about $415 million dollars. It's better than last year by about 10%, though obviously still way down from their highs.

They were losing money not so long ago, so this is a major improvement from that, but if we go back to the Wii/DS era, there were years they were making 555,000 million yen (or $4.6 billion) in operating profits.

Well, i dont Ninty is going to be able to reach that number anymore, unless their mobile venture and NX end up getting big here. But after reading the Q3 earnings, it seems Nintendo is slowly surely but trying to had their stable profit back.^~^


On the other hand, i had question to both you nirolak and duckroll here regarding our previous conversation about how bad Nintendo performance in SEA market. I remember last time Iwata mentioned on providing specific product to those market. What do you guys think if lets said Nintendo really release a specific hardware to country filled with piracy, is there any way they can try to counter that problem here?
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
Well, i dont Ninty is going to be able to reach that number anymore, unless their mobile venture and NX end up getting big here. But after reading the Q3 earnings, it seems Nintendo is slowly surely but trying to had their stable profit back.^~^


On the other hand, i had question to both you nirolak and duckroll here regarding our previous conversation about how bad Nintendo performance in SEA market. I remember last time Iwata mentioned on providing specific product to those market. What do you guys think if lets said Nintendo really release a specific hardware to country filled with piracy, is there any way they can try to counter that problem here?
Piracy isn't the issue here. The issue is they're not distributing their products in a serious manner in the regions in the first place.

Imagine if you went to a store and your only options to buy Nintendo games were to get them in Latin or Esperanto, games only came in one or the other, and you needed different systems to run them based on language. The systems you get also don't have any content on the eShop. Cost and availability for products can vary significantly because these games are being imported from Rome and San Marino to boot.

Chances are you're just not going to buy Nintendo products at this point unless you're a diehard who also happens to know one of those languages or is willing to play the games while not understanding them. Instead, you will go buy games from Microsoft or Sony or on your PC or phone because those are actually in a language you speak, priced appropriately, have solid content availability and have supporting digital services.
 

casiopao

Member
Piracy isn't the issue here. The issue is they're not distributing their products in a serious manner in the regions in the first place.

Imagine if you went to a store and your only options to buy Nintendo games were to get them in Latin or Esperanto, games only came in one or the other, and you needed different systems to run them based on language. The systems you get also don't have any content on the eShop. Cost and availability for products can vary significantly because these games are being imported from Rome and San Marino to boot.

Chances are you're just not going to buy Nintendo products at this point unless you're a diehard who also happens to know one of those languages or is willing to play the games while not understanding them. Instead, you will go buy games from Microsoft or Sony or on your PC or phone because those are actually in a language you speak, priced appropriately, have solid content availability and have supporting digital services.

I agree here on Nintendo is not really serious on penetrating those developing market but wont that also be caused by Nintendo simply dont have enough resources(human especially) to maintain their presence in those countries? Not to mention,it is a highly risky moves diving deep into those country when they had zero ideas about what the in and out of the country?

For language though especially in SEA, i dont think thats a problem like at all. Most gamer here in SEA mostly played game uses English so there should not be any problem on that front.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
I agree here on Nintendo is not really serious on penetrating those developing market but wont that also be caused by Nintendo simply dont have enough resources(human especially) to maintain their presence in those countries? Not to mention,it is a highly risky moves diving deep into those country when they had zero ideas about what the in and out of the country?

For language though especially in SEA, i dont think thats a problem like at all. Most gamer here in SEA mostly played game uses English so there should not be any problem on that front.
The other option is to team up with a local distributor who understands the market and give them a lot of leverage in advising you how to operate there.

Nintendo sometimes does this, but they're not always super careful in picking the distributors and then - and this is very important - investing the resources to support them. The distributor obviously can't do anything with digital networks or locally targeted content or enticing third party software vendors to get their software localized and distributed in the market.
 

Xenoboy

Member
PREDICTION LEAGUE FEBRUARY 2016

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Feb 01 to Feb 28):

[3DS] Shin Megami Tensei IV: Final (19 days) - 131.000
[PS4] Valkyria Chronicles Remastered (19 days) - 39.000
[PS4] Street Fighter V (11 days) - 89.000
[PSV] Kan Colle Kai (11 days) - 190.000
[PS4 + PS3 + PSV] Attack on Titan (11 days) - 100.000
[PS4 + PSV] Project Setsuna (11 days) - 44.000
[3DS] Nintendo 2DS [Pocket Monsters] (2 days) - 67.000
 

horuhe

Member
PREDICTION LEAGUE FEBRUARY 2016

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Feb 01 to Feb 28):

[3DS] Shin Megami Tensei IV: Final (19 days) - 154.538
[PS4] Valkyria Chronicles Remastered (19 days) - 47.981
[PS4] Street Fighter V (11 days) - 61.307
[PSV] Kan Colle Kai (11 days) - 192.692
[PS4 + PS3 + PSV] Attack on Titan (11 days) - 91.647
[PS4 + PSV] Project Setsuna (11 days) - 49.201
[3DS] Nintendo 2DS [Pocket Monsters] (2 days) - 64.796
 

hiska-kun

Member
According to Nintendo, Monster Hunter X Sell-Through is over 3 million.

07l.jpg


Media Create (up to Jan 24th)
[3DS] Monster Hunter X # <ACT> (Capcom) {2015.11.28} (¥5.800) - 2.644.499

Meaning that digital sales are over 350k.

Edit: more sell-through data

&#12302;&#12522;&#12474;&#12512;&#22825;&#22269; &#12470;&#12539;&#12505;&#12473;&#12488;&#65291;&#12303;&#12399;&#26152;&#24180;6&#26376;&#12395;&#30330;&#22770;&#12375;&#12383;&#12477;&#12501;&#12488;&#12391;&#12377;&#12364;&#12289;&#30452;&#36817;&#12414;&#12391;&#12398;&#22269;&#20869;&#12398;&#12475;&#12523;&#12473;&#12523;&#12540;&#12399;70&#19975;&#26412;&#20197;&#19978;&#12392;&#12289;&#24180;&#26411;&#24180;&#22987;&#12395;&#12363;&#12369;&#12390;&#36009;&#22770;&#25968;&#12364;&#38918;&#35519;&#12395;&#20280;&#12403;&#12383;&#12400;&#12363;&#12426;&#12391;&#12394;&#12367;&#12289;&#12371;&#12398;&#12479;&#12452;&#12488;&#12523;&#12434;&#21021;&#12417;&#12390;&#12503;&#12524;&#12452;&#12373;&#12428;&#12427;&#12362;&#23458;&#27096;&#12395;&#21344;&#12417;&#12427;&#22899;&#24615;&#12398;&#27604;&#29575;&#12364;&#12289;&#21322;&#25968;&#12434;&#36229;&#12360;&#12427;&#32080;&#26524;&#12395;&#12394;&#12426;&#12414;&#12375;&#12383;&#12290;&#21516;&#26178;&#12395;12&#27507;&#20197;&#19979;&#12398;&#12362;&#23376;&#27096;&#12398;&#27604;&#29575;&#12418;&#19978;&#12364;&#12387;&#12390;&#12362;&#12426;&#12414;&#12377;&#12290;
&#12381;&#12398;&#12411;&#12363;&#12395;&#12289;&#22269;&#20869;&#12391;&#12398;&#12475;&#12523;&#12473;&#12523;&#12540;&#12364;140&#19975;&#26412;&#12434;&#36229;&#12360;&#12383;&#12302;&#12393;&#12358;&#12406;&#12388;&#12398;&#26862; &#12495;&#12483;&#12500;&#12540;&#12507;&#12540;&#12512;&#12487;&#12470;&#12452;&#12490;&#12540;&#12303;&#12420;&#12289;

Rhythm Heaven: The Best+ sell-through is over 700k, Animal Crossing: Happy Home Designer sell-through is over 1.4 million

Media Create (Up to Jan 24th)
[3DS] Rhythm Heaven: The Best+ <ACT> (Nintendo) {2015.06.11} (¥4.700) - 639.960

Digital Sales over 70k

Media Create (Up to Jan 17th)
[3DS] Animal Crossing: Happy Home Designer # <ETC> (Nintendo) {2015.07.30} (¥4.000) - 1.317.679

Digital Sales over 80k
 
Bandai Namco managed to ship 1 million One Piece Pirate Warriors 3 despite the fatigue for both One Piece and musô games.

The breakdown, as reported by Gematsu, is putting some light again on the asian (non-japan) markets.

Japan &#8211; 380,000
Asia &#8211; 200,000
North America &#8211; 100,000
Europe &#8211; 320,000 (dat France)

Note : SteamSpy estimations for PC are 72,572 copies sold
 

duckroll

Member
One Piece Musou 1 - Over 800k sold in Japan alone on a single platform
One Piece Musou 3 - 1 million shipped worldwide across 4 platforms

:lol
 

wapplew

Member
Bandai Namco managed to ship 1 million One Piece Pirate Warriors 3 despite the fatigue for both One Piece and musô games.

The breakdown, as reported by Gematsu, is putting some light again on the asian (non-japan) markets.

Japan – 380,000
Asia – 200,000
North America – 100,000
Europe – 320,000 (dat France)

Note : SteamSpy estimations for PC are 72,572 copies sold

Just the matter of time, Asia will be bigger Japan game market than Japan itself.
 
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