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Media Create Sales: Week 32, 2016 (Aug 08 - Aug 14)

lherre

Accurate
Isn't 2DS and N3DS already shows that price is not a problem?

But the difference between 2DS and N3ds is bigger than "vanilla" PS4 and Neo.

I mean you lose 3D from 2DS for example (one of the main selling points for 3DS) and the ergonomics. And 2DS in my opinion is a very poor (materials/presentation) implementation. Like a cheap chinese console compared with the 3DS.

Ps4 Neo will have the same games with better performance, the rest is the same.

But we will see since it is the first time we will have hardware "iterations" inside the same generation in the home console space (not sure where to put 32x or other devices).
 

duckroll

Member
Isn't 2DS and N3DS already shows that price is not a problem?

I don't think he means how cheap the Slim is, but rather how expensive the Neo is. The fact that a Slim exists does seem to indicate two things - a) the Neo might be further away than we think, maybe 6 months or more? b) the Neo might be significantly more expensive compared to the current PS4, making a cheaper Slim even more attractive to the casual buyer.

If the Neo is only slightly more expensive than the PS4 is now, and a no-brainer purchase for anyone looking to buy a PS4 once it is in the market, there would be much less reason for the Slim to exist.
 

lherre

Accurate
I don't think he means how cheap the Slim is, but rather how expensive the Neo is. The fact that a Slim exists does seem to indicate two things - a) the Neo might be further away than we think, maybe 6 months or more? b) the Neo might be significantly more expensive compared to the current PS4, making a cheaper Slim even more attractive to the casual buyer.

If the Neo is only slightly more expensive than the PS4 is now, and a no-brainer purchase for anyone looking to buy a PS4 once it is in the market, there would be much less reason for the Slim to exist.

I think they will be 249 and 399.
 

cw_sasuke

If all DLC came tied to $13 figurines, I'd consider all DLC to be free
Not all the people needs/wants the updated (and expensive) Neo model.

Think about N3ds and regular 3ds.

3DS is a low end platform to begin with so less people will be interested in having already quite bad looking games just look/perform a little less bad. Also the amount of games using the n3DS extra power is really low - why every upcoming PS4 game will benefit from the PS4K enhanced specs, as well as the whole VR lineup. Also the n3DS more or less replaced the regular 3DS...while Neo isnt replacing the current PS4 but an extra option for high end customers.

If Nintendo had released a HD 3DS - being able to render every 3DS game in a higher resolution as well as a HD screen way more people would have decided to upgrade.
I think they will be 249 and 399.

I agree - atleast here in europe 249€ and 399€ is very likely looking at the current PS4 console price.
 

casiopao

Member
I don't think he means how cheap the Slim is, but rather how expensive the Neo is. The fact that a Slim exists does seem to indicate two things - a) the Neo might be further away than we think, maybe 6 months or more? b) the Neo might be significantly more expensive compared to the current PS4, making a cheaper Slim even more attractive to the casual buyer.

If the Neo is only slightly more expensive than the PS4 is now, and a no-brainer purchase for anyone looking to buy a PS4 once it is in the market, there would be much less reason for the Slim to exist.

3DS is a low end platform to begin with so less people will be interested in having already quite bad looking games just look/perform a little less bad. Also the amount of games using the n3DS extra power is really low - why every upcoming PS4 game will benefit from the PS4K enhanced specs, as well as the whole VR lineup. Also the n3DS more or less replaced the regular 3DS...while Neo isnt replacing the current PS4 but an extra option for high end customers.

If Nintendo had released a HD 3DS - being able to render every 3DS game in a higher resolution as well as a HD screen way more people would have decided to upgrade.


I agree - atleast here in europe 249€ and 399€ is very likely looking at the current PS4 console price.

I see, i see. But,Hmmm. If Neo itself is significantly more expensive, i feel it is not going to be a very popular/successful product here. It seems Slim will still be the big selling one while Neo is just going to sell to a small pool of fans who wanted to high end product.
 

duckroll

Member
249 would be really low for the PS4 Slim. Could be super attractive, especially for the Japanese market. I'm... not that hopeful. Being more pessimistic about this, I can see the Slim being 300, while the Neo being 450. But in that scenario, the Neo seems DOA. I dunno... too pessimistic maybe?
 

casiopao

Member
249 would be really low for the PS4 Slim. Could be super attractive, especially for the Japanese market. I'm... not that hopeful. Being more pessimistic about this, I can see the Slim being 300, while the Neo being 450. But in that scenario, the Neo seems DOA. I dunno... too pessimistic maybe?

Lol, duckroll had the same view as me here. Actually, how much is Scorpio here? as Neo is designed to take on Scorpio right?
 

duckroll

Member
Lol, duckroll had the same view as me here. Actually, how much is Scorpio here? as Neo is designed to take on Scorpio right?

The Scorpio won't be out until the end of next year. There isn't any price indication yet. On the same note, the Neo isn't even officially announced yet. So...
 

mao2

Member
You're going to have to remind me the last time Falcom gave away half of their game as a demo.

The most recent thing I can think of was the EVO Kiseki, being able to play part of the 1st chapter for free, but that's usually less than 5% of the full game.

I enjoy seeing radical sale schemes from Japanese companies like ASW basically giving away Xrd:R for free minus online play around 2 months before release if you preordered the game though.
Ōkami messed up the translation, it's not the first half of the game. The "free" version only allows you to play from Prologue until the middle of Part 2.
http://dengekionline.com/elem/000/001/347/1347441/
プロローグから第2部中盤までをたっぷりと楽しめるとのこと。
 

lherre

Accurate
249 would be really low for the PS4 Slim. Could be super attractive, especially for the Japanese market. I'm... not that hopeful. Being more pessimistic about this, I can see the Slim being 300, while the Neo being 450. But in that scenario, the Neo seems DOA. I dunno... too pessimistic maybe?

I don't see Neo more expensive than launch Ps4. The differences in hardware (with the specs leaked in mind) aren't that big to justify 449 or 499. I think 399 is the "sweet spot" to incentive the upgrade or purchase.

Scorpio is unknown yet, we only have the "6 TFlops" quote, so we coulnd't guess a price with only that.
 

Vena

Member
Considering the leaked size from Foxconn, I don't know if 399$ is realistic. 10lbs and 3cm larger than OG is a lot of uppers on price. First and most basic is the plastic and the shipping/boxing costs going up. Also the size makes me think that this has serious internal cooling for its APU, that will increase the price as well by a fair clip. Also, obviously, a brand new API even if still Jaguar will not be cheaper than the current APU costs.

Moreover, they're assuredly going to sell a luxury/enthusiaat product with a luxury markup.

Also I don't think 249$ makes sense for similar reasons on cost analysis, but also because their FY shipping estimate is 20m. 249$ would overshoot that I'd imagine, especially holidays when it's get down to 199$. I'm thinking 299$ MSRP and 249$ for Holiday deals.
 

Oregano

Member
People in the leak thread were saying they heard Neo is going by for a March release which seems quite far off and is possibly risky because it puts them head to head against NX.
 

wrowa

Member
People in the leak thread were saying they heard Neo is going by for a March release which seems quite far off and is possibly risky because it puts them head to head against NX.
Risky for whom? I doubt Sony aims at the Japanese market with the Neo (they are probably banking on the Slim for that one), so NX stealing Neo's thunder in Japan likely isn't a major concern. In the rest of the world on the other hand... I wonder if Nintendo should be the ones afraid of launching against the new version of the market leader. Different target audiences for sure, but Neo could possibly receive more mind share.
 

Oregano

Member
Risky for whom? I doubt Sony aims at the Japanese market with the Neo (they are probably banking on the Slim for that one), so NX stealing Neo's thunder in Japan likely isn't a major concern. In the rest of the world on the other hand... I wonder if Nintendo should be the ones afraid of launching against the new version of the market leader. Different target audiences for sure, but Neo could possibly receive more mind share.

I think risky for both, even in the West. Nintendo is always a wildcard, and it pays to never underestimate them. I'd assume Sony is confident they'd win any "battle".
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
I think risky for both, even in the West. Nintendo is always a wildcard, and it pays to never underestimate them. I'd assume Sony is confident they'd win any "battle".

Honest question. What's the hypothetical audience overlap between the NX and the Neo in the West, to the point someone would replace one with the other?
 

horuhe

Member
PlayStation 4 totally sold-out on Rakuten. This is the first time it happens since launch.
ixFptaV.jpg
 

Oregano

Member
Honest question. What's the hypothetical audience overlap between the NX and the Neo in the West, to the point someone would replace one with the other?

The only possible one would be hardcore fans of Japanese games which is a small niche. The bigger issue would battling for mindshare. They don't want Neo to be ignored because everyone is focused on a competitors platform.

I don't think thats likely to happen but there's always a risk.
 

Alrus

Member
Honest question. What's the hypothetical audience overlap between the NX and the Neo in the West, to the point someone would replace one with the other?

Honestly this is hard to tell without knowing exactly where the NX stand in terms of support and power.
 

duckroll

Member
Honestly this is hard to tell without knowing exactly where the NX stand in terms of support and power.

I don't think it's very hard honestly. There is zero possibility that Nintendo has what it takes to challenge that market in the ecosystem today. There is always a possibility that they can successfully carve out their own niche again by expanding the market beyond what it is now, but that wouldn't be an overlap.
 

Vena

Member
PlayStation 4 totally sold-out on Rakuten. This is the first time it happens since launch.

Now we're hitting those shipment limits as the OG is cleared of stock.

The only possible one would be hardcore fans of Japanese games which is a small niche. The bigger issue would battling for mindshare. They don't want Neo to be ignored because everyone is focused on a competitors platform.

I don't think thats likely to happen but there's always a risk.

I wouldn't say that's an issue, the 3DS and the PS4 (and the Vita, but we generally don't count that as relevant in the west) all serve that niche and don't really get in the way of one another. The PS4 sells to a very different demographic in general in the west, and said niche Japanese games aren't exactly lighting the charts on fire.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
The only possible one would be hardcore fans of Japanese games which is a small niche. The bigger issue would battling for mindshare. They don't want Neo to be ignored because everyone is focused on a competitors platform.

I don't think thats likely to happen but there's always a risk.

So we're looking at gamers who primarily like niche Japanese games, don't own a PS4 yet, and were considering buying an upgraded version of the PS4 that will be utilized by maybe three niche Japanese titles in 2017? And then they're going to skip out to buy an NX as a replacement for this system because it... presumably has the support of every Japanese developer?

I'm having a hard time envisioning this one honestly.

Beyond that, I'm having issues imagining a scenario where what I would view as the primary target audience for the device (Western gamers who want better graphics on AAAA Western games) would be won over by the NX instead.

Now if it was launching at the same time as Scorpio, which is a much better system for the same exact goal, I could see a huge issue, but that doesn't seem to be the case here.

Fans of JRPGs and open world action adventure games?
I guess I'm having issues imagining a scenario where the vast majority of that audience doesn't already own a PS4 or Xbox One or gaming PC that plays the vast majority of those already. I could see a share of that audience also buying an NX to play handheld JRPGs and Nintendo games, but it doesn't strike me as likely that the audience buying open world action adventure games is opting out of anything but a Nintendo platform given where all of those have been and the insane volume they've been selling.
 

Vena

Member
Also is there even any basis for the idea of the Neo launching in March? That seems to be just twitter-fodder and fluff from reading the other threads.
 

Oregano

Member
So we're looking at gamers who primarily like niche Japanese games, don't own a PS4 yet, and were considering buying an upgraded version of the PS4 that will be utilized by maybe three niche Japanese titles in 2017? And then they're going to skip out to buy an NX as a replacement for this system because it... presumably has the support of every Japanese developer?

I'm having a hard time envisioning this one honestly.

Beyond that, I'm having issues imagining a scenario where what I would view as the primary target audience for the device (Western gamers who want better graphics on AAAA Western games) would be won over by the NX instead.

Now if it was launching at the same time as Scorpio, which is a much better system for the same exact goal, I could see a huge issue, but that doesn't seem to be the case here.

Not exactly what I mean. I meant more that the average Joe game who might be willing to buy a Neo if it was adequately presented to them may be missed if all attention is on NX.

If you open up IGN or Gameinformer and everything is about NX Sony doesn't even get a chance to upsell you.

As I said, not likely but a definite possibility.
 

horuhe

Member
Now we're hitting those shipment limits as the OG is cleared of stock.

Not only that, for what it seems the white model was sold out at least for one month from now. Didn't pay attention to that when I posted the rankings. The black model lasted until pretty much now, and there are no plans to re-stock it, because according to a Rakuten statement, the last re-stock was during this week.
 

Vena

Member
Not only that, for what it seems the white model was sold out at least for one month from now. Didn't pay attention to that when I posted the rankings. The black model lasted until very much now, and no plans to re-stock it, because according to a Rakuten statement, the last re-stock was during this week.

Ya white model was noted previously in the WSJ article but it was the black that was readily in stock until now and matches with what we heard... a month ago? They cut off shipments a while back in general and this seems like the last of the warehouse movements to clean out inventory.

The remodel (since it really isn't much of a slim) is going to be taking over at retail with a 50-100$ USD price drop (I lean on the former). Not that different from last year on timing.

Of course, I still don't know how big of an issue the price actually is in this market. /shrug
 

zeromcd73

Member
Someone got Famitsu early and uploaded the release schedule page for PS4.

Yoru no Nai Kuni 2 releasing December 22, 2016 on PS4. Possibly other platforms too but not confirmed at the moment.
 

mao2

Member
Someone got Famitsu early and uploaded the release schedule page for PS4.

Yoru no Nai Kuni 2 releasing December 22, 2016 on PS4. Possibly other platforms too but not confirmed at the moment.
Interesting. Hopefully we'll get more info tomorrow.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
Not exactly what I mean. I meant more that the average Joe game who might be willing to buy a Neo if it was adequately presented to them may be missed if all attention is on NX.

If you open up IGN or Gameinformer and everything is about NX Sony doesn't even get a chance to upsell you.

As I said, not likely but a definite possibility.

For this one, my sentiment would be that this feels like a scenario more from 2006 (or maybe 1996) than 2016.

I agree that there was a time where Game Informer was the primary method for a consumer who was game-curious, but not really following the industry would use to make their decisions, mainly because the magazine was sold to them by GameStop, which is a store that people in the US used to rely on to help them pick what games to buy (usually for their children). Back in the day, they also would have done a launch special on the NX that would probably be pretty heavily focused on just that topic.

However, these days, people who are your average consumer don't go to GameStop or read Game Informer to figure out what's out in a given month. They use YouTube, Facebook, Twitter, or see astronomically large marketing campaigns that completely dwarf what used to happen. The target audience for these devices are going to hear about them constantly, especially around both announcement and release, and they're going to make their decision based upon what they actually want to play. The vast, vast majority of them are also going to be at least somewhat informed consumers because people who don't follow the industry at all play games on their phones instead of buying $300+ dedicated devices with $60 games on impulse. We can see this pretty trivially given that consumers can easily follow that Elder Scrolls and Fallout are made by the same studio and go along the same escalating sales curve, or that consumers seem to always understand the difference between a filler game and an important entry even among a more general audience series like Batman.

Hitting on IGN for a second, the vast majority of game sites have went through a huge identity crisis and cover every possible topic they can because no one actually cares to use them as game information portals anymore. They also try to make all their staff frontline personalities because YouTubers and Twitch streamers are preferred so much more to them, both in terms of purchases intent and in terms of getting basic information about a game. People even prefer to just go to the publishers themselves, which is why they all run their own livestreams and coverage now instead of handing out exclusive previews.

This is before we even get into the concept that your average person going out to buy a console for the first time probably has a very specific game in mind (as recommended by a friend and/or played at their home) and is going to buy the platform that plays that game. Potential new gamers generally aren't sitting there looking at their newspapers going "I should get into gaming.", opening up IGN, and picking the platform to buy based upon what appears the most frequently on the page.

I could maybe see a scenario where a parent who doesn't already own a console is trying to decide what console to buy for their young child and decides upon the NX instead of a PS4, but that's Nintendo's primary demographic in the West, and a new, premium priced system with a huge proportion of M games wasn't likely to be the first choice anyway. However, that's also becoming rarer since a large portion of the people having young kids now are also gamers themselves.

Now, if we're talking about Japan, sure, that's an actual direct competitor for the same core dedicated audience, but I don't think that's a meaningful market for the PS4.
 

Oregano

Member
You might be correct and to be fair my perception is coloured by my personal experiences. The average gamer in my experience is still someone who plays Fifa, Cod, GTA, etc. and they tend to be really disengaged other than that.

Slightly related I saw hundreds of teens swarm a YouTube personality in town last week and felt old for the first time in my life!

Edit: Also it seems really brave for KT to make Nights of Azure 2 PS4 exclusive. Wonder if we're going to see even niche games go PS4-only going forward.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
Right, but if they know what FIFA, CoD, and GTA are, they presumably are checking what systems actually play those before buying them.

Edit: Also it seems really brave for KT to make Nights of Azure 2 PS4 exclusive. Wonder if we're going to see even niche games go PS4-only going forward.
I get the sense that Vita support is starting to be phased out, so we should have our answer pretty quickly based on whether NX versions show up or not.
 

Oregano

Member
Right, but if they know what FIFA, CoD, and GTA are, they presumably are checking what systems actually play those before buying them.


I get the sense that Vita support is starting to be phased out, so we should have our answer pretty quickly based on whether NX versions show up or not.

True but in this case their PS4 already plays those games so Sony will need all the exposure they can get to convince those users to upgrade.

I guess we should see soon(hopefully), still seems risky considering Vita still represents half or more of the sales most of the time.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
I'm not sure convincing those people to upgrade is the goal of the system.

People who only play a few games a year aren't the type of power users who are likely to buy an expensive, moderate upgrade to their existing system.

For those types of consumers who don't own the system already, that's the target audience for the PS4 Slim.

I guess we should see soon(hopefully), still seems risky considering Vita still represents half or more of the sales most of the time.
For a lot of games, I think we've pretty clearly arrived at a scenario where the options on the table are changing their business models (either by vastly lowering budget to match new sales expectations or expanding target audience via new platforms and geographies) or hoping for a miraculous PS4 mega surge.
 

Man God

Non-Canon Member
Sony is clearly "in trouble" as far as Japan goes but they also likely predicted that this would happen. Just the idea of launching outside of Japan first would have been laughed at last generation.
 

mao2

Member
Edit: Also it seems really brave for KT to make Nights of Azure 2 PS4 exclusive. Wonder if we're going to see even niche games go PS4-only going forward.
zeromcd73 already mentioned above but it's not confirmed to be PS4 exclusive. The uploaded image only shows the release schedule for PS4, so it could be on PS3 and Vita as well.
 
zeromcd73 already mentioned above but it's not confirmed to be PS4 exclusive. The uploaded image only shows the release schedule for PS4, so it could be on PS3 and Vita as well.

I doubt PS3, since they dropped it for Atelier Firis. Vita perhaps, although as I mentioned elsewhere the problems they had getting the first game to run on it doesn't inspire a lot of hope.
 

mao2

Member
I doubt PS3, since they dropped it for Atelier Firis. Vita perhaps, although as I mentioned elsewhere the problems they had getting the first game to run on it doesn't inspire a lot of hope.
Yeah, I can see them dropping PS3 version, but Vita version of the first game did sell quite well so it's hard to say...
 

Oregano

Member
I'm not sure convincing those people to upgrade is the goal of the system.

People who only play a few games a year aren't the type of power users who are likely to buy an expensive, moderate upgrade to their existing system.

For those types of consumers who don't own the system already, that's the target audience for the PS4 Slim.


For a lot of games, I think we've pretty clearly arrived at a scenario where the options on the table are changing their business models (either by vastly lowering budget to match new sales expectations or expanding target audience via new platforms and geographies) or hoping for a miraculous PS4 mega surge.

I can't imagine they wouldn't want them to upgrade if they could convince them to. Of course that would make a lot more sense if Neo had exclusive features or games...

As to the bolded I'm honestly not convinced that isn't the case. Especially if Sony has sold them on the possibility of Slim, Neo, PS VR and FFXV making a significant difference.

zeromcd73 already mentioned above but it's not confirmed to be PS4 exclusive. The uploaded image only shows the release schedule for PS4, so it could be on PS3 and Vita as well.

Oh fair enough, might have spoken too soon.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
I can't imagine they wouldn't want them to upgrade if they could convince them to. Of course that would make a lot more sense if Neo had exclusive features or games...
Well, sure, and Apple would assuredly like everyone to upgrade to iPad Pros, and Nintendo would like everyone to upgrade to New 3DS XLs, but that's not a realistic scenario for a premium product.

As to the bolded I'm honestly not convinced that isn't the case. Especially if Sony has sold them on the possibility of Slim, Neo, PS VR and FFXV making a significant difference.
Though my question becomes what you expect them to do if that doesn't happen.
 

Man God

Non-Canon Member
Is PS3 even worth it at this point?

Vita usually is unless the game runs like crap (and news of it gets out) but PS3...lot of extra work for not much gain there.
 

sense

Member
Neo isn't really going to do much in japan so a cheaper slim is probably the best option to move units in japan. I really think sony will go the equivalent of 249 in japan atleast.

I am confident that neo will do really good outside japan even at 399/449 and get a lot of existing ps4 users to upgrade. it might even start outpacing the slim by end of next year.
 
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