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Media Create Sales: Week 32, 2017 (Aug 07 - Aug 13)

Too tough with the dual screen setup. I think it'll be the PS4 version, a little worse looking, with some extra stuff tacked on to encourage double dipping (story context, playable character, bonus dungeon, minimedal village building, voice acting, orchestrated soundtrack, etc). Think along the lines of the extras added to previous later DQ ports like 1-3 GBC, 4/5 DS or 8 3DS. I wonder how soon Nintendo can have 64GB cards ready for production?

Even if "extra content" is included they wont need a 64gb cart, if its 30gb on ps4 then whack in a bit of compression and a 32gb cart would have plenty space for any extras needed
 

LordKano

Member
I don't know if both of you are serious but the PS4 version didn't sell more than the 3DS one. And it won't in the future.
 

Fiendcode

Member
Even if "extra content" is included they wont need a 64gb cart, if its 30gb on ps4 then whack in a bit of compression and a 32gb cart would have plenty space for any extras needed
Orchestrated soundtrack and voice acting could push it past 32GB. Especially if they do multiple language tracks for the international release.

Actually I wouldn't be surprised if the Switch version was a global launch timed with PS4 in the west mid/late next year, and it also got those extras for the international version.
 
I don't know if both of you are serious but the PS4 version didn't sell more than the 3DS one. And it won't in the future.

And yet Matsuda's quote is there and it looks pretty straightforward to me, and there is no mistranslation here. I just asked in the other thread : what about Asia ? Dualshockers says the PS4 version released in Asia while the 3DS version is coming this Winter, is that right ?
 

LordKano

Member
some say the game sold more in ps4.... with digital ... but i don't think it's right cause that would be 300k digital game.

He's talking about the sell-through ratio and/or the revenue (since the PS4 version is way more expensive). The PS4 version had a stronger ratio than the 3DS one, hence the "stronger sales". It certainly didn't sell 300k digitally lol.

And yet Matsuda's quote is there and it looks pretty straightforward to me, and there is no mistranslation here. I just asked in the other thread : what about Asia ? Dualshockers says the PS4 version released in Asia while the 3DS version is coming this Winter, is that right ?

I have no idea about that.
 

ethomaz

Banned
That doesn't seem to mean what you think it means.
Yet another source is saying that PS4 version possible sold more due digital and Asia sales. The SE guy works clearly says PS4 version sales were stronger than 3DS version.
 

Ōkami

Member
DQXI is available in Asia but only in Japanese, so its not like you'll see huge downloads apart from hardcore fans, the first official localized version of the game is the chinese one out on the winter.

For example, DQXI is on the Korean PSN, but its the game is in japanese.

Some international fans might've bought those versions, the Korean version of the game is like $30 cheaper, despite being the same exact thing as the japanese one.

Still though, if say, the japanese version has sold 150k then I doubt downloads outside account for an additional 150k.
 

ethomaz

Banned
Ōkami;246300310 said:
DQXI is available in Asia but only in Japanese, so its not like you'll see huge downloads apart from hardcore fans, the first official localized version of the game is the chinese one out on the winter.

For example, DQXI is on the Korean PSN, but its the game is in japanese.

Some international fans might've bought those versions, the Korean version of the game is like $30 cheaper, despite being the same exact thing as the japanese one.
The retail version released in Asia too?

Your other "source" is a journalist speculating. It's not a source. And it's Dualshockers in top of that.
The quote is clear... of course people and journalists will especulate where the difference is coming. Digital and Asia sales are not something false.
 

LordKano

Member
The retail version released in Asia too?


The quote is clear... of course people and journalists will especula-se where the difference is coming. Digital and Asia sales are not something false.

The quote is clear. The facts and numbers are clear too. You're trying to create a story that doesn't exist.
 

ggx2ac

Member

From the link:

Matsuda declined to give a percentage of digital download sales for Dragon Quest XI, but noted that they're still lower than what the publisher is used to seeing from a Western release.

"Because we are currently selling the title primarily in Japan, the percentage of download sales is lower than what we would see for a title being sold in the Western markets. I cannot speak to the specific figure at the moment as there is a possibility that it may rise going forward," he said.

Why are people claiming Digital sales are strong? Remember that the game wasn't sold out at launch as there was still around 200k physical copies of the PS4 version available.
 

Ōkami

Member
Expect sales of DQXI on PS4 to die out at around 1.5m, if it even gets there.

2m would mean better legs than any game in the series since VII.
 
Yet another source is saying that PS4 version possible sold more due digital and Asia sales. The SE guy works clearly says PS4 version sales were stronger than 3DS version.
The retail version released in Asia too?


The quote is clear... of course people and journalists will especulate where the difference is coming. Digital and Asia sales are not something false.

Stronger is not synonymous with more. It's performing stronger on PS4 compared to shipments/expectations than 3DS. If something sells 1.5m on a 1.6 million shipment, that's stronger than selling 1.7m on a 3m shipment.
 

ethomaz

Banned
Stronger is not synonymous with more. It's performing stronger on PS4 compared to shipments/expectations than 3DS. If something sells 1.5m on a 1.6 million shipment, that's stronger than selling 1.7m on a 3m shipment.
That especulation, no?

Why speculation for one side is ok but to the other is not?
 

orochi91

Member
Yet another source is saying that PS4 version possible sold more due digital and Asia sales. The SE guy works clearly says PS4 version sales were stronger than 3DS version.

Sales performance relative to market expectations, that's where the PS4 version has exceeded SE's initial estimates.

Not in total sales vs the 3DS version.

3DS sales do seem a tad pitiful given the ~4.5x greater install base, but I suppose that means it will have much longer legs.
 
Ōkami;246300310 said:
DQXI is available in Asia but only in Japanese, so its not like you'll see huge downloads apart from hardcore fans, the first official localized version of the game is the chinese one out on the winter.

For example, DQXI is on the Korean PSN, but its the game is in japanese.

Some international fans might've bought those versions, the Korean version of the game is like $30 cheaper, despite being the same exact thing as the japanese one.

Oh interesting, thanks. Indeed, only hardcore asian fans would buy the game now, but it is indeed accessible to them then, that's the important thing here.

LordKano, if you dont like Dualshockers, the interpretation of Matsuda's quote is no different on Gematsu or Siliconera.

Another thing, the PS4 version wouldn't need 330K digital sales to debut higher. Before August 9th (the day when Matsuda was talking) Famitsu had a difference of 273,293 units. Now, trackers are only that : trackers. They can overestimate one version and underestimate another. I know also a lot of people here are working hard to emphasize that "the digital ratio is low in japan" even though no one has a fucking real idea about it. Only thing we know for sure is DQ11 has been the best selling PSN title since July 29th.

Now I'm just here to tease, I also think Matsuda is talking about revenue instead of units. Whether the PS4 version of DQ11 is a little above or a little below 3DS has absolutely no importance. The console version crushed all expectations from the experts around here (no need to dig up again the thread from last spring) and at the very least Matsuda's quote makes it impossible for anyone to downplay the response around the PS4 release.

I'm also sharing this link just for fun. Maybe this is what those western CEO calls "stronger engagement" or something like that :p
 

Mubrik

Member
i haven't paid much attention to this thread (or sales thread) but are the XB1 numbers real??.
and nintendo dominance is real with the switch, wow.
then again looking at the 3ds LTD i can see why
 

ggx2ac

Member
I know also a lot of people here are working hard to emphasize that "the digital ratio is low in japan" even though no one has a fucking real idea about it. Only thing we know for sure is DQ11 has been the best selling PSN title since July 29th.

Digital sales aren't that big in Japan, period. Look at the article I quoted.
 

wrowa

Member
That especulation, no?

Why speculation for one side is ok but to the other is not?

Who's saying that? People are saying that you can't draw any conclusions from the statement since it's not necessarily refering to absolute sales, but might as well be reffering to performance relative to expectations. Nothing more, nothing less. No one is saying you can't speculate, but that the statement is no hard evidence for one side or the other.
 

Dash Kappei

Not actually that important
Switch owners are buying so much software it's crazy. Anecdotally my friends list (and myself) shows that with digital titles there's always a *minimum* of 6-7 games on there... I don't know if the lack of multimedia capabilities it's actually helping its case and really making people concentrate on games and building a library outside of the usual couple of must-haves. Either way, this platform seems destinate for success, Nintendo has again something special on their hands.
 
Who's saying that? People are saying that you can't draw any conclusions from the statement since it's not necessarily refering to absolute sales, but might as well be reffering to performance relative to expectations. Nothing more, nothing less. No one is saying you can't speculate, but that the statement is no hard evidence for one side or the other.

But we do have hard evidence in the sales data which should be a big clue which side a rational person should come down on.
 

NewGuy

Neo Member
i haven't paid much attention to this thread (or sales thread) but are the XB1 numbers real??.
and nintendo dominance is real with the switch, wow

Keep in mind this is mostly Japan sales data, and the Xbox brand has had a history of flopping in the land of the rising sun. On the other hand, portable gaming is Japans bread and butter so Nintendo's growing success isn't too surprising.

If you want a fuller picture of the world wide sales situation I'd wait for the monthly NDP sales results, that being said most of the trends you see here (Ps4 consistent, Switch rising, Xbox declining) seem to be echoed in global sales results as well.
 

Vena

Member
Another thing, the PS4 version wouldn't need 330K digital sales to debut higher. Before August 9th (the day when Matsuda was talking) Famitsu had a difference of 273,293 units. Now, trackers are only that : trackers. They can overestimate one version and underestimate another. I know also a lot of people here are working hard to emphasize that "the digital ratio is low in japan" even though no one has a fucking real idea about it. Only thing we know for sure is DQ11 has been the best selling PSN title since July 29th.. Maybe this is what those western CEO calls "stronger engagement" or something like that :p

I think its more that its just mathematically unlikely for the meaning to be as ethomaz is attempting to use it. Especially in light of the comment on weaker digital (for the title) than (what would be normal for) other markets. Mathematically (limited only to Japan) for the PS4 to have outsold the 3DS because of digital would require ~20-30%. This number is near-par with western market digital and so does not make sense in light of the comments by Masuda.

If we use the numbers from last week (Aug6th), the PS4 would need a total greater than 1.45m units, which with a 1.15m retail sell-through, require ~0.3m digital. That's a 20% digital rate which is encroaching on western market averages. This assumes the 3DS sold 0% digital.

If the 3DS sold, say, 10% then the 3DS would be at ~1.6m total. This would require that the PS4 had a digital rate of ~30%.

So this just looks highly unlikely from this angle. We can wiggle this by Asian sales but Okami's point doesn't suggest strong performance in that market yet that would greatly change any of these numbers.
 
Another thing, the PS4 version wouldn't need 330K digital sales to debut higher. Before August 9th (the day when Matsuda was talking) Famitsu had a difference of 273,293 units. Now, trackers are only that : trackers. They can overestimate one version and underestimate another. I know also a lot of people here are working hard to emphasize that "the digital ratio is low in japan" even though no one has a fucking real idea about it. Only thing we know for sure is DQ11 has been the best selling PSN title since July 29th.
so you're saying that ps4 digital ratio is 20%+ while 3ds digital is 0. ok

edit: vena explained it better heh
 

ethomaz

Banned
Revenue fits the claim too... I didn't look that way before.

For now there are two possibilities that makes sense for that claim:

1) Revenue is stronger on PS4 version than 3DS version.

2) PS4 version is stronger that 3DS version if you add digital + Asia sales.

The option 1 looks to be the most reasonable and covered by Japan trackers (we don't have digital or Asia trackers). The claim makes sense based in revenue.
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
We spent an entire thread with FFXV and its digital that was the best ever in Japan, it's time for another round of fantasy with DQXI this time.

Square-Enix uses Media Create by the way.
 
Obon and Splatoon 2 launch have provided an indication that 1 million in December is pretty doable. They have sold 335K Switches since the Splatoon 2 launch in a 4 week period. It's still questionable if they'd be able to supply more than 1 million for December. But unless Switch falls to under 40K after the holidays it appears we are seeing the ramp up in production. Nintendo have already stated that in the fall we'd see bigger supply. So it's pretty much assured that 4 million is the minimum we'd see sold in Japan this year.
It's obvious that currently we are seeing prioritization for Japan due to Splatoon 2 launch and the leaked NPD numbers confirm this, but there is also a larger supply in the states for July(25% or so), which assures us that this is the effect of the production ramp up rather than only Japan being prioritized.

I don't think 10% attachment rate is unattainable for BotW and December coincides with the new DLC. Nintendo has already shown they are quite happy to have forced bundles available. We've seen Splatoon 2, Arms, MK8D and even Bomberman R receive bundles at specific retailers. People underestimate Zelda and 300K for potentially 2.5 million new owners isn't really all that much and is far from unrealistic.

Sorry I'm a little late responding to this.

I have bolded my problems with your argument. The 3DS sold significantly more than 1 million in December 2011.

Week 48: 205.962
Week 49: 350.321
Week 50: 367.691
Week 51: 482.200
Week 52: 197.952
Total: 1.604.126

It still barely sold more than 4 million that year and they will be starting from virtually the same point as of next week. I don't see them having the supply. I see 4 million as a maximum, not a minimum, if they want to keep the rest of the world from having ridiculously low supply.

As for your Zelda argument. It has been falling apart week by week every time LA updates the numbers. I don't see how you could reasonably stick to it. I don't know what bundles have to do with it. Unless the system is heavily bundled with BotW for an extended period of time it won't push it over the edge, and they have better games to do that with like Splatoon 2 and Mario Kart 8 DX.
 
Zelda most likely won't hit 1m this year, but I still believe it should get there lifetime. Maybe by its first anniversary, but we'll have to see how it does during the holidays.
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Zelda won't be very far from 1m this year, it was close to 750k at the end of June. I don't see what's the big deal if we know it hit that mark at December or March.
 
Zelda won't be very far from 1m this year, it was close to 750k at the end of June. I don't see what's the big deal if we know it hit that mark at December or March.

It isn't really a big deal. 1m at any point would be a huge accomplishment for a Zelda title, since that feat hasn't been achieved in 20 years.
 
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