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Skittzo0413
Member
So the Switch is about 120k higher than the 3DS launch aligned, though the 3DS number increases by 196k next week. That means if the Switch gets >76k again next week it will remain ahead of the 3DS post price cut.
Which is very impressive.
Which is very impressive.
yes, but the following week is big too for 3DS.
frankie_baby
Member
There's no potential about it, its absolute lock
Week 33 tends to be stronger than week 32, however they are usually both very close, and when obon is spread between week 32 and 33 week 32 tends to be a bit stronger. I imagine this week will be stronger in general, but they are so close it will only be different by a few ten thousand machines total.
Skittzo0413
Member
Right, 100k again, but if the Switch keeps up the numbers we've been seeing lately as a result of increased production then it really won't be that far behind. Might even overtake it again in the weeks following that one.
Yes, Switch accelerated but the speed up the price cute gave to 3DS may be still faster.
Dark Cloud
Member
Dang th Switch is doing good.
Switch vs 3DS
New Comparison:
PS4 vs PS3
MK8 DX vs MK8
Dragon Quest Comparison
Code:
-------------------------------------------------------------
| | Nintendo 3DS | Nintendo Switch | Difference |
| | (2011/02/26) | (2017/03/03) | |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|
|Week| Weekly | LTD | Weekly | LTD | NSW - 3DS |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|
| 22| 31.826|1.289.741| 89.314|1.286.300| -3.441|
| 23| 16.415|1.306.156| 61.933|1.348.233| 42.077|
| 24| 4.132|1.310.288| 87.798|1.436.031| 125.743|
| 25| 196.077|1.506.365| | | |
| 26| 105.639|1.612.004| | | |
| 27| 60.781|1.672.785| | | |
| 28| 54.744|1.727.529| | | |
| 29| 49.076|1.776.605| | | |
| 30| 58.837|1.835.442| | | |
| 31| 70.159|1.905.601| | | |
| 32| 58.504|1.964.105| | | |
| 33| 53.540|2.017.645| | | |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|New Comparison:
PS4 vs PS3
Code:
-------------------------------------------------------------
| | PlayStation 3 | PlayStation 4 | Difference |
| | (2006/11/11) | (2014/02/22) | |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|
|Week| Weekly | LTD | Weekly | LTD | PS4 - PS3 |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|
| 180| 25.590|5.019.022| 93.356|5.095.722| 76.700|
| 181| 25.629|5.044.651| 52.939|5.148.661| 104.010|
| 182| 32.874|5.077.525| 42.462|5.191.123| 113.598|
| 183| 26.185|5.103.710| | | |
| 184| 20.463|5.124.173| | | |
| 185| 19.075|5.143.248| | | |
| 186| 20.987|5.164.235| | | |
| 187| 18.951|5.183.186| | | |
| 188| 17.676|5.200.862| | | |
| 189| 17.175|5.218.037| | | |
| 190| 19.578|5.237.615| | | |
| 191| 20.077|5.257.692| | | |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|MK8 DX vs MK8
Code:
-------------------------------------------------------------
| | Mario Kart 8 | Mario Kart 8 DX | Difference |
| | [WIU] (2014/05/29)| [NSW] (2017/04/28)| |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|
|Week| Weekly | LTD | Weekly | LTD | MK8DX MK8 |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|
| 1 | 325.892| 325.892| 284.823| 284.823| -41.069|
| 2 | 73.051| 398.943| 90.652| 375.475| -23.468|
| 3 | 42.261| 441.205| 36.440| 411.915| -29.290|
| 4 | 28.112| 469.316| 28.781| 440.696| -28.620|
| 5 | 23.520| 492.837| 26.993| 467.689| -25.148|
| 6 | 19.386| 512.223| 20.984| 488.673| -23.550|
| 7 | 15.143| 527.366| 16.596| 505.270| -22.096|
| 8 | 14.992| 542.358| 16.822| 522.091| -20.267|
| 9 | 18.129| 560.487| 13.545| 535.636| -24.851|
| 10 | 18.067| 578.554| 14.423| 550.059| -28.495|
| 11 | 20.860| 599.414| 13.436| 563.495| -35.919|
| 12 | 28.221| 627.635| 11.554| 575.048| -52.587|
| 13 | 12.075| 639.710| 12.980| 588.028| -51.682|
| 14 | 11.148| 650.858| 13.841| 601.869| -48.989|
| 15 | 8.221| 659.079| 13.764| 615.633| -43.446|
| 16 | 6.839| 665.918| 17.262| 632.894| -33.024|
| 17 | 6.396| 672.313| | | |
| 18 | 5.936| 678.250| | | |
| 19 | 4.517| 682.767| | | |
| 20 | 3.996| 686.763| | | |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|Dragon Quest Comparison
Code:
------------------------------------------------------------------
| | Dragon Quest VIII | Dragon Quest IX | Dragon Quest XI |
| | [PS2] 2004/11/27 | [NDS] 2009/07/11 |[3DSPS4] 2017/07/29|
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|
|Week| Weekly | LTD | Weekly | LTD | Weekly | LTD |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|
| 1 |2.167.072|2.167.072|2.318.932|2.318.932|2.099.203|2.099.203|
| 2 | 476.281|2.643.353| 612.671|2.931.603| 508.512|2.607.714|
| 3 | 203.618|2.846.971| 270.305|3.201.908| 207.762|2.815.476|
| 4 | 152.295|2.999.266| 179.612|3.381.520| | |
| 5 | 104.211|3.103.477| 135.649|3.517.169| | |
| 6 | 71.019|3.174.496| 126.682|3.643.851| | |
| 7 | 37.507|3.212.003| 79.103|3.722.954| | |
| 8 | 23.858|3.235.861| 71.318|3.794.272| | |
| 9 | ?| ?| 50.063|3.844.335| | |
| 10 | ?| ?| 36.877|3.881.212| | |
| 11 | ?| ?| 32.603|3.913.815| | |
| 12 | ?| ?| 30.086|3.943.901| | |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|
|Year| YTD | LTD | YTD | LTD | YTD | LTD |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|
|Total -|3.319.607| -|4.143.999| -|2.815.476|
------------------------------------------------------------------ah was mis-remembering and had it around 150k the following week. Yeah it should be able to keep up, especially because after that it falls mostly in the 40k-60k until the holidays and Switch should pick up holiday sales around the same time since Odyssey releases in that same week?
The Main Event
Member
Holy Switch.
As I said before the launch 4 million is the minimum I expect from the Switch for 2017 in Japan. The stock troubles will hopefully be resolved and it can match 3DS's crazy December 2011
Just a reminder 3DS sold over 1 million in December 2011 and had MH, MK7 release right before the holidays. Outside of December months if supply issues are resolved Switch should easily maintain parity with post-price cut 3DS. The only question remaining is whether Nintendo is able to ship more than 1 million units for December, which other unannounced games are coming in 2017 and whether they might do some more aggressive bundling for the holidays if stock permits.
Code:
--------------------------
| | Nintendo 3DS |
| | (2011/02/26) |
|----|---------|---------|
|Week| Weekly | LTD |
|----|---------|---------|
| 31| 4.132|1.310.288|
| 32| 196.077|1.506.365|
| 33| 105.639|1.612.004|
| 34| 60.781|1.672.785|
| 35| 54.744|1.727.529|
| 36| 49.076|1.776.605|
| 37| 58.837|1.835.442|
| 38| 70.159|1.905.601|
| 39| 58.504|1.964.105|
| 40| 53.540|2.017.645|
| 41| 55.025|2.072.670|
| 42| 73.933|2.146.603|
| 43| 65.041|2.211.644|
| 44| 145.271|2.356.915|
| 45| 103.962|2.460.877|
| 46| 96.219|2.557.096|
| 47| 120.920|2.678.016|
| 48| 205.962|2.883.978|
| 49| 350.321|3.234.299|
| 50| 367.691|3.601.990|
| 51| 482,200|4,084,190|
| 52| 197,952|4,282,142|
|----|---------|---------|BladeoftheImmortal
Member
Amazes me how well Nintendo does in Japan compared to Sony but Sony usually outsells more in the rest of the world to make up for the losses in Japan.
Edit: I'm still amazed at how well the ps3 did in Japan, too.
Edit: I'm still amazed at how well the ps3 did in Japan, too.
Switch vs 3DS
PS4 vsPS3
Code:------------------------------------------------------------- | | PlayStation 3 | PlayStation 4 | Difference | | | (2006/11/11) | (2014/02/22) | | |----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------| |Week| Weekly | LTD | Weekly | LTD | PS4 - PS3 | |----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------| | 180| 25.590|5.019.022| 93.356|5.095.722| 76.700| | 181| 25.629|5.044.651| 52.939|5.148.661| 104.010| | 182| 32.874|5.077.525| 42.462|5.191.123| 113.598| | 183| 26.185|5.103.710| | | | | 184| 20.463|5.124.173| | | | | 185| 19.075|5.143.248| | | | | 186| 20.987|5.164.235| | | | | 187| 18.951|5.183.186| | | | | 188| 17.676|5.200.862| | | | | 189| 17.175|5.218.037| | | | | 190| 19.578|5.237.615| | | | | 191| 20.077|5.257.692| | | | |----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|
Thanks for keep updating PS4 v PS3. I think PS4 should settle above 25k in no release weeks.
frankie_baby
Member
This week should be big again surely? Then next week is MonHun and bundles so can see a big hardware number again
Polygonal_Sprite
Gold Member
Switch will outsell PS4's lifetime sales in Japan in under a year at this rate.
Toni
Member
Which is why you won't catch Sony worried about Japan when they're selling 1.2 million PS4's a month.
The fact that its sold 5 million in Japan is also great though.
ethomaz
Banned
I agree but every stronger week 32 happened when you have more holidays days in week 32... this year is the first (since 2006 I guess?) that the august 15 happens in a Tuesday... that is why I expect week 33 to be stronger than week 32.
NintendosBooger
Member
Having western third party support does that.
Skittzo0413
Member
This week yeah, but we're comparing to this same week being 150k for 3DS and then next week (non-holiday for Switch) being 105k. Who knows how the Switch stock will be after this week.
I'm just going by hiska-kun's charts by the way.
Ruud_Luiten
Member
Vita is kicking ass!
Sells more than Wiiu, PS3 and Xbox One combined!
Sells more than Wiiu, PS3 and Xbox One combined!
frankie_baby
Member
As I'm saying though next week has the monhun bundle so numbers should be good, after that who knows but i think it is clear the 25k dolldrums are a thing of the past, i could buy a week maybe 2 boost from stockpilling but this is too sustained to be anything but an increase in production
Eolz
Member
I don't see Arms doing any comeback anywhere tbh, and this kind of stuff should help more western sales.
It's still a fighting game, despite the usual audience improvements from Nintendo. Content was too light at launch compared to Splatoon, and the genre is still a particular one for this region.
Assuming 4 million Switches are sold in 2017:
Switch Rest of 2017 = 2564K
Zelda: BotW attach rate needed for 1 million = 11.9%
Assuming 4.5 million Switches are sold in 2017:
Switch Rest of 2017 = 3064K
Zelda: BotW attach rate needed for 1 million = 9.9%
Assuming 5 million Switches are sold in 2017
Switch Rest of 2017 = 3564K
Zelda: BotW attach rate needed for 1 million = 8.5%
Obviously 5 million is the absolute maximum I think we could see in 2017 more realistic would be between 4.3-4.7 million if manufacturing and stock issues are resolved.
With Nintendo doing bundles for Arms/MK8D it's not out of the question to see a Zelda bundle for the holidays. DLC will be dropping and Nintendo know that a lot of people will be buying Splatoon 2 even if it's not bundled. Even if a theoretical bundle is available for one week looking at those 3DS 2011 December numbers it can do a lot in terms of getting Zelda past 1 million.
Skittzo0413
Member
Ah I forgot about Monster Hunter bundles, and yeah I definitely agree that the production has clearly increased at this point but we don't know for sure what the new baseline will be. It could be as low as 40k or as high as 80k. Hopefully on that higher end.
frankie_baby
Member
http://kotaku.com/three-thousand-pe...m_source=Kotaku_Twitter&utm_medium=Socialflow
Japanese morning show sent a reporter into 48 stores in Tokyo to see if they could find a Switch, they didn't find any
frankie_baby
Member
I'm thinking high 50s, perhaps it could be more but they'll have to start stockpilling for xmas soon
JonnyDBrit
Member
Switch vs 3DS
Code:------------------------------------------------------------- | | Nintendo 3DS | Nintendo Switch | Difference | | | (2011/02/26) | (2017/03/03) | | |----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------| |Week| Weekly | LTD | Weekly | LTD | NSW - 3DS | |----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------| | 22| 31.826|1.289.741| 89.314|1.286.300| -3.441| | 23| 16.415|1.306.156| 61.933|1.348.233| 42.077| | 24| 4.132|1.310.288| 87.798|1.436.031| 125.743| | 25| 196.077|1.506.365| | | | | 26| 105.639|1.612.004| | | | | 27| 60.781|1.672.785| | | | | 28| 54.744|1.727.529| | | | | 29| 49.076|1.776.605| | | | | 30| 58.837|1.835.442| | | | | 31| 70.159|1.905.601| | | | | 32| 58.504|1.964.105| | | | | 33| 53.540|2.017.645| | | | |----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|
New Comparison:
What's crazy is that if Switch's legs continue to hold - praying that the stock levels can keep up - then it's not actually going to be that far behind the 3DS. Without a price drop too. I can hear the war chest swelling from here...
Smiles and Cries
Member
how much does the Switch need to sell this week to stay ahead of the 3DS launch aligned chart?
encephalon
Member
Woah Amazon Japan has a switch in stock.
I'm going to be responsible and wait so I can regret this moment when Xenoblade comes out.
I'm going to be responsible and wait so I can regret this moment when Xenoblade comes out.
76k I think
Switch is region free, so as long as you have one, you'll be fine.
71k, but that would likely mean it will be overtaken the week after since they sold 105k 3ds the week after
Smiles and Cries
Member
Yeah I was looking at that. They really nailed it with that franchise I suppose. Wow.
encephalon
Member
I live in Japan. My current plan is to harass my local "countryside" Tsutaya once a week to ask if they have any in stock. They said they get a couple here and there and implied they sit on the shelf for a little while, so hopefully this works out for me in November or so.
Smiles and Cries
Member
we have to hope for a crazy holiday full of stock
Chris didn't say that, I said it, and only as a hypothetical number that would match what chris heard from early reports from retailer blogs.
Smiles and Cries
Member
oh okay my bad
Skittzo0413
Member
Again the majority of Switch units were Splatoon 2 bundles so that number isn't terribly surprising.
Yeah and I mistakenly perpetuated it
The really crazy part is that the only thing preventing the Switch from thrashing the 3DS's numbers is the lack of stock. That was not a problem with the 3DS at this point.
JonnyDBrit
Member
Yep. It'll almost certainly be behind the 3DS, but depending on stock levels and legs, it may not be too far behind. Depending on the subsequent situation week by week, Switch could either fall further behind or have the chance to get back ahead again. It's at Week 35 that things really begin to tick upward for the 3DS to a new level again.
Edit:
Oh yeah, I think I spotted some mention of a news station going to 48 stores and they're still sold out. So even with the new level of stock, it's still limited. Absolutely nuts.
The difference could be that they have the monster hunter bundles shipped already. At least the first shipment of those.
PS3 did about 10M in Japan.
Nothing to be amazed about.
Chû Totoro
Member
Seing this level and still loteries it seems 100k could have been the weekly sales number for Switch for like 2-3 months... Can't wait to see December Switch sales (all over the world not only JPN).
This console really is something :O
and I'm not sure ARMS is good or just ok. Maybe with upcoming content we'll see if they can hope having a solid base for a sequel.
Right now I'm enjoying the game but it's not like I want to play it as much as... Splatoon ^^
This console really is something :O
and I'm not sure ARMS is good or just ok. Maybe with upcoming content we'll see if they can hope having a solid base for a sequel.
Right now I'm enjoying the game but it's not like I want to play it as much as... Splatoon ^^
185 people got so excited about winning a lottery they forgot what else was on the shopping list...