Cosmo Clock 21
Banned
Given a combination of this and what went down at Level 5 Vision, TGS this year might be very interesting (or depressing depending on who you are)...
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Media Create Sales: Week 33, 2013 (Aug 12 - Aug 18)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
Aquamarine
Member
In all likelihood, it will debut lower than LEGO City Undercover (18K), and will probably follow a lower trend.
LEGO City Undercover is currently at 36K after 4 weeks, and is trending at ~5K a week.
So assuming TW101 manages a ~12K debut, and hits ~4K a week soon afterwards, I could definitely see a ~40K lifetime possibility in the cards.
Prediction League September, 2013
[3DS] Monster Hunter 4 (16 days) - 2,444,444
[PS3] JoJo's All Star Battle (32 days) - 550,987
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIV ARR (34 days) - 89,123
[PS3+360] Lost Planet 3 (32 days) - 80,000
[PS3+PSV] Sen no Kiseki (4 days) - 89,456
[WIU] Zelda Wind Waker HD (4 days) - 75,000
[3DS] Little Battlers eXperience Wars (4 days) - 48,000
[3DS] Hardware (35 days) - 666,666
[3DS] Monster Hunter 4 (16 days) - 2,444,444
[PS3] JoJo's All Star Battle (32 days) - 550,987
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIV ARR (34 days) - 89,123
[PS3+360] Lost Planet 3 (32 days) - 80,000
[PS3+PSV] Sen no Kiseki (4 days) - 89,456
[WIU] Zelda Wind Waker HD (4 days) - 75,000
[3DS] Little Battlers eXperience Wars (4 days) - 48,000
[3DS] Hardware (35 days) - 666,666
pieatorium
Member
One thing with the whole mobile discussion from last page, why not also put those games out on psn/eshop?
both handhelds have touch controls and in the very near future both home consoles will also have touch controllers.
both handhelds have touch controls and in the very near future both home consoles will also have touch controllers.
Well for the 3DS:
1.) It's not an OpenGL ES 2.0 compliant device and only has 96 MB of RAM for developers, so this isn't the world's easiest port for a lot of games.
2.) A lot of these games are free 2 play titles with lots of microtransactions and frequent patching/live events, so I'm not sure how easy that is on 3DS.
For Vita, well, at this point smartphone ports are actually a fair portion of its support, but there honestly just aren't that many people to sell to relative to the install base of iOS/Android, especially when you consider f2p conversion rates.
SatelliteOfLove
Member
I don't make predictions with my few posts in these threads; i at most will sing the praises or gloat/lament bombas and mostly stick to reading as I'm a learner in this field, but since this is opinion:
1) Don't know too much about L5, but I do know they have experience with bite-sized (asset, money, and time investiture-wise) with the Guild games, so "what" definately isn't
2) I had that thought too: Nintendo and/or Sony's handhelds get abandoned or at least cross-ported to mobiles. One thing that Nintendo and to a lesser extent the PSP/Vita had was a strong "these games you want are here and nowhere else" attraction baked-in with exclusives. This would be a terrible blow for either, and with those meteoric rises in mmmmmmmmmobiles (all that anectodal evidence from the last year wasn't BS!) I'm willing to guess "yes". This depends on...
3) The price ceiling (or at least Gougy McBilkington freemium crap) will have to be consistantly shattered and those that do rewarded with sales first. Leaping to these without a solid ground that can support the extra "weight" would be just as dangerous as staying to a flighty executive eyeing those growth reports.
Glass Rebel
Member
I don't know how mobile games are perceived in Japan but if it's like in the West the first challenge to overcome will be that $0.99 price barrier. Take-Two was apparently successful with XCOM at $20 but that's one data point and another port to boot. And then you're also looking at the issue of data size, market visibility etc. It doesn't help that everybody is looking at the money Puzzle & Dragons is making either. Due to the nature of their respective markets I think that there won't be a direct shift of games from handhelds to mobile devices but rather an allocation of resources at the expense of handheld games. At least not at first.
RyougaSaotome
Member
If the numbers for Zero no Kiseki (PSP) and Ao no Kiseki (PSP) are any indication, I'd expect Sen no Kiseki's opening to be above 100,000 total.
Especially since it's been two years since the last canon game. We'll see! *fingers crossed*
Especially since it's been two years since the last canon game. We'll see! *fingers crossed*
pieatorium
Member
breaking news w101 sales double
Glass Rebel
Member
Wonderful 1-and-1
I got nothing.
I got nothing.
pieatorium
Member
why would i be mad lol? did you post the wrong gif?
Smiles and Cries
Member
Amazon.co.jp sales aren't included in MC rankings, unfortunately.
Smiles and Cries
Member
that is a hell of a lot of Pokemon XY bundles not being counted
michaelius
Banned
All sales are included. When they get no data directly it will be estimates.
Daigasso 3DS website just opened. Looks like it's being developed by Intelligent Systems and still stated for a 2013 release. There so many games for 3DS coming up in Japan.
michaelius
Banned
Wednesday 15.00 CET
YEEEES! Thank you!
If you want to take part in this war you'll need to do the dirty work by yourself.
Poor, poor Kamiya
He bought two copies. I wonder what's that extra copy for.
He is going to frame it and hang it on the wall.
Because it is a masterpiece, got it? Got it?
Tizoc
Member
Oooh I see it's every wednesday got it thanks.
michaelius
Banned
megaton Japanise 3rd party game for Wii U just got annouced:
Snowden's Secret
Banned
(sighs)
Remember the PS3 board? And how nothing on that list "saved" the PS3? And yet the PS3 didn't fail away into obscurity?
It's because there is no one action to "save" a platform; in aggregate they combine to make a platform more palatable and it sells to that critical mass.
So Pikmin 3 doesn't "save the Wii U" and only adds 1K a week to Wii U's baseline. 9K/week or 10K/week, that's still crap. But raise the floor another 100 units/week with TW101. And another 3K with Mario 3D World. And 1K for Donkey Kong. And a K for Wii Fit. Add another 5K for Mario Kart. Now it's selling 20K/week (or double where it started) which is still not great but it's something, and no one game actually created that turnaround.
michaelius
Banned
20K per week was baseline for ps3 slim - that's not going to happen
People had fun with the PS3 chalkboard, let people have fun with the WiiU one too.
Your post makes more sense now after WonderFlick announcment (iOS/Android/PS3/PS4/Vita//Wii U/XboxOne).
It seems better to develop stand alone games for 3DS rather than ports.
Edit: I missed that Layton 7 Coming for iOS/Android/3DS.
point refuted..
It's not so simplistic and of course there are cases a single game created a turnaround
DarkLordMalik
Member
And for VITA/PS3/PS4/Xbone -_-
Glass Rebel
Member
Wonderflick is probably not coming to 3DS because of the networking/F2P features
http://www.famitsu.com/news/201308/26038970.html
Kobito Studio indie games download sales (in Japan?)
Xbox Indie Games: http://www.angelword.net/kobitostudio/historyxna.html
- Best selling game: ~15k
- All 11 games: ~20k
- 3% to 4% of demo downloads converted into sales
PlayStation Mobile: http://www.angelword.net/kobitostudio/historypsm.html
- All 2 games: 1.7k
It is CEDEC 2013 session with some Japanese indie developers, there may be other interesting stuff.
Kobito Studio indie games download sales (in Japan?)
Xbox Indie Games: http://www.angelword.net/kobitostudio/historyxna.html
- Best selling game: ~15k
- All 11 games: ~20k
- 3% to 4% of demo downloads converted into sales
PlayStation Mobile: http://www.angelword.net/kobitostudio/historypsm.html
- All 2 games: 1.7k
It is CEDEC 2013 session with some Japanese indie developers, there may be other interesting stuff.
metalslimer
Member
I think we are seeing that there will likely be no more traditional handhelds and they will ve very mobile based. The exclusive handheld market is quickly falling apart.
Maybe it's a bad question but, was Japan going to handheld japaneses' fault or markets fault? It may be a weird question, but if you think about it early in the generation there was:
A) A home-console with weird motion controls (the Wii) that was succesful. But most small to mid developers won't be afraid of investigating how to use them properly.
B) A home-console (X360) from America whose predecessor sold 500k. Moreover, they started the gen moneyhating / coofunding / funding some JRPGs projects. Most of them ended in Sony's console, but one year late (like Star Ocean, Eternal Sonata, Tales of Vesperia...). It has to be very confusing.
C) A home-console (PS3) whose price was a rip off. Moreover, some of their succesful franchises and some mid to high profile JRPGs where in Microsoft's console. And some where exclusively in the Xbox for 1 to 2 years.
If I was a Japanese I would probably feel confused and asking: why is the Xbox receiving so many titles I want? Why the only "cool" JRPG for Sony is Folklore?
And after that, I see the handheld market. There is the NDS with lots of awesome games, both casual and hardcore. There I can play SMT, M64, Pokemon, Zelda, Fire Emblem, Tales of, Final Fantasy, Dragon Quest... and there are a couple of cool casual games like Brain Training, Nintendogs, Cats and a lot more.
And there is the PSP which was like a PS1.5 and where you can play Monster Hunter, more SMT games, lots of JRPGs, SRPGs, visual novels, lots of games based in succesful shows...
Looking back at 2006 I feel I would end playing portable too if I was japanese. I don't know when most of the games numbered where released, but I think you understand the point even if some games where published later.
A) A home-console with weird motion controls (the Wii) that was succesful. But most small to mid developers won't be afraid of investigating how to use them properly.
B) A home-console (X360) from America whose predecessor sold 500k. Moreover, they started the gen moneyhating / coofunding / funding some JRPGs projects. Most of them ended in Sony's console, but one year late (like Star Ocean, Eternal Sonata, Tales of Vesperia...). It has to be very confusing.
C) A home-console (PS3) whose price was a rip off. Moreover, some of their succesful franchises and some mid to high profile JRPGs where in Microsoft's console. And some where exclusively in the Xbox for 1 to 2 years.
If I was a Japanese I would probably feel confused and asking: why is the Xbox receiving so many titles I want? Why the only "cool" JRPG for Sony is Folklore?
And after that, I see the handheld market. There is the NDS with lots of awesome games, both casual and hardcore. There I can play SMT, M64, Pokemon, Zelda, Fire Emblem, Tales of, Final Fantasy, Dragon Quest... and there are a couple of cool casual games like Brain Training, Nintendogs, Cats and a lot more.
And there is the PSP which was like a PS1.5 and where you can play Monster Hunter, more SMT games, lots of JRPGs, SRPGs, visual novels, lots of games based in succesful shows...
Looking back at 2006 I feel I would end playing portable too if I was japanese. I don't know when most of the games numbered where released, but I think you understand the point even if some games where published later.
metalslimer
Member
Handhelds are just are more convenient. It was an inevitability that consoles would falter once handheld gaming left the proverbial ghetto. Now console makers certainly helped accelerate that decline, but it was going to happen. And now we will see a contraction of the entire traditional market.
I feel this is actually an interesting distinction.
The first game has full 3D RPG battles, whereas the second is just a... I can't really even tell, but it doesn't look especially complicated.
The first game is also a new IP, and doesn't have its audience on a particular platform, whereas in theory the Layton audience overwhelmingly owns a 3DS and/or smartphone, yet it's unlikely to appeal to people that don't own those platforms.
Well, next-gen there will be a traditional handheld from Nintendo with their games and whatever 3rd party games they are moneyhatting.
The question is which will disappear first in Japan: dedicated home consoles or dedicated handhelds.
Well I feel an Android device with integrated buttons is the obvious next choice for Sony, and they don't seem too opposed to the idea, but I don't know if they have the strength to carry it to success.
So, 15k - 18k for W101, huh. Oh well. Time for £239.99 bundle equivalent in ¥.
I'll go with consoles, with handhelds not too far behind.
I'll go with consoles, with handhelds not too far behind.
metalslimer
Member
Right which is why i feel the next nintendo device will either run some android variant or the OS and platform will be developed with the mobile market in mind.
Also back up a sec isn't sales going to drop next week so w101 is looking at a 6-8k opening at that position?
I don't know, I'm still seeing many big and mid-level and some niche releases for 3DS, as well as some mid-level and many nice stuff titles on Vita. What disappeared from shelves are many of the very, very little titles we would have seen on DS and PSP. Some of them are on eShop/PSN, the majority is on iOS. Still, I wouldn't use a title like Layton 7, which is coming on 3DS too and is...not a Layton title, at all, for this arguement.
However, I can perfectly see the next Nintendo handheld being traditional, still two screens, but NOT separated anymore, and both touch. In this way, portings from mobile would be way, way easier to do, with no need to create a separate version of the title.
...And the more the time passes, the more it's possible home consoles will come back to the spotlight when Nintendo will release the hybrid XD
metalslimer
Member
Huh? What accelerated their decline hasn't gotten better. It's gotten much worse in japan. Unless you think this mobile game thing is a fad that will go away and not get much bigger. Also i will be very interested in 2014 JPN 3rd party 3DS release list.
Nintendo should do it the other way 'round. New Gameboy with Miiverse/Android support.
This is seriously the 7th entry in a series that used to sell almost 1 million copies.
Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvDXoqqHDGE
Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvDXoqqHDGE
This is seriously the 7th entry in a series that used to sell almost 1 million copies.
Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvDXoqqHDGE
The 7 in the title refers to the amount of characters, which are seven...most probably. Otherwise, it'd be "Professor Layton and the ________", like the others, which weren't...this.