Media Create Sales: Week 34, 2014 (Aug 18 - Aug 24)

Road

Member
Jan 21, 2008
7,602
0
0
Brazil
sites.google.com
Reminder for the new page.

PREDICTION LEAGUE SEPTEMBER 2014

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Sep 1 to Sep 28):

[XBO] Hardware (25 days) -
[XBO] Dead Rising 3 (25 days) -
[3DS] Dragon Quest X (25 days) -
[PS4+PS3] Destiny (18 days) -
[3DS] Super Smash Bros. for 3DS (16 days) -
[WIU] Bayonetta 2 (9 days) -
[PSV+PS3] Sen no Kiseki II (4 days) -
[PSV] Danganronpa Another Episode (4 days) -
[WIU] Fatal Frame V (2 days) -


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Deadline: September 3rd 09:00 am (EST) (when Famitsu or Media Create first make their weekly sales public)
 
Jul 29, 2010
4,274
86
655
DQ has the potential to sell a mil being released on PS3/PS4 but I'm surprised they're not releasing on the Vita also, musous have always done well there.


yeah, only reason it was like that because the series was still growing on the psp

mh4u will show if the series has not only stopped growing but is also declining, but with series at this size we also have to take into the account the number of people willing to wait for mh4u before jumping in.
It really depends on your definition of well though. I'd say the Vita Warriors game have done pretty miserably, but are ok b/c they supplement the PS3 releases. Hyrule Warriors hasn't even hit 100K yet but has outsold all the Vita Warriors games (One Piece Pirate Warriors 2 Vita included).
 
Jul 28, 2012
26,651
0
0
It's practically no different with the western developers... 90% of all games released to-date are all cross-gen, and will remain so well into the year's end, and maybe even first-half of next year.

The important thing is that the first wave of support needs to be strong. As far as year 'one' (sarcasm) Japan support is concerned, I'd say the line-up for 2015 is pretty solid, cross-gen or not.

There's cross-gen spin-off releases from practically every major third-party Japanese franchises (DQ, FF, WE, BIO, etc ), potentially 2 flagship titles ( MGS, Persona ), and a good mix of titles of various other niches, both big/small (Gundam, Disgaea, EDF, potentially IM@S, etc ) that all a dedicated fanbase that will buy hardware for said games, however small the base is.

The big question now is Sony. Sony's big problem is that they have no 'system seller IPs' in Japan that's coming out anytime soon. Bloodborne could potentially be big, but that's only one game. Will GT7 and Minna Golf be released next year? Honestly, Sony needs to effing get both those games out ASAP.

However, their own output aside, I say that Sony has done a decent job of positioning the PS4 as the 'hardware' to get if you want the best of everything.

Sure, many games are cross-gen, but there's enough of 'cross-gen without Vita' + 'cross-gen without PS3' + 'PS4 exclusive' in-between that could potentially sway the audience into thinking "eh, I might as well get a PS4 since then I'll get to play everything."

It's not all that great, but I'm a lot more optimistic for Sony's 2015 now than I was a week ago. Even as a cross-gen game, I never imagined DQ coming to PS4, and Persona 5... I was assuming they'll go the cross-gen late port route, but damn, simultaneous release!
Yeah I see 2015 as a year with many cross gen games since Japan is always late/slow with the transitioning but having cross gen titles is certainly not a bad thing, especially with the big franchises. 2016 should see less cross gen and more exclusives, unless PS4 does unexpectedly bad in 2015.

Hot Shots definitely looks like a 2015 title and GT7 has a chance of turning up. I also wonder if FFXV has a chance at being 2015.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Mar 10, 2011
22,885
0
855
28
theflyingthoughtsblog.wordpress.com
Was Popolocrois x Harvest Moon the only new game in Famitsu (excluding the ones that came out of the Sony event)?

I'll try to write up the update to Road to TGS tonight and then perhaps put out some stats about what's been shown so far by platform and publisher with each week's update since we're getting close now.
If I'm reading correctly, there are also the retail version of SK: Bon Apetit and a title from the Simple series for PS4.

There's also a part about one of the main features being on Revelations 2, and Wii U is mentioned, but can't comprehend the reason. Anyone who can get a better look? It's the recap on Hokanko's blog.
 
Jun 22, 2011
11,588
0
520
Norway
For those catching up on the XBO this is the info I believe we've got. Correct me if I'm wrong because they contradict each other slightly :p

Sinobi is expecting 38k for One first week.
This could be the estimated initial shipment.
Just that Shinobi expects a 35,000 shipment for XB1 for launch. Not sales, shipment. So it will probably sell less.
Edit: This was later pointed out.
no it was a sales estimate not shipment, that was a mistranslation by someone
 
Aug 22, 2014
265
0
0
This is either a joke, or you don't realize that sinobi is a long-time, well-trusted Japanese blogger. 38K is still just his prediction, but he's a person. :p
This is even worse.

Some guy predicts 38k based on what? Because he's a blogger so he has credentials for a prediction? What is the info that he has I'd like to see it because if such a prediction is not far off that is terrible.
 
Jun 6, 2012
5,419
0
0
This is even worse.

Some guy predicts 38k based on what? Because he's a blogger so he has credentials for a prediction? What is the info that he has I'd like to see it because if such a prediction is not far off that is terrible.
Want to make an Avatar bet? If it sells over 80k week one, I'll take any Avatar you give me for a month. If it's under 80k I pick your Avatar for a month.
 
Jun 7, 2004
114,759
1
0
37
This is even worse.

Some guy predicts 38k based on what? Because he's a blogger so he has credentials for a prediction? What is the info that he has I'd like to see it because if such a prediction is not far off that is terrible.
Sinobi is a retail blogger. There are many retail game stores in Japan who are owned by or have employees who are fans themselves interested in the industry. Their predictions or forecast are not wild random guesses but generally based on the vibe at retail, along with extra data they have on hand with regards to preorders, shipments, and sales trends.
 
Dec 22, 2013
5,429
0
320
[XBO] Hardware (25 days) - 77,777
[XBO] Dead Rising 3 (25 days) - 38,111
[3DS] Dragon Quest X (25 days) - 158,222
[PS4+PS3] Destiny (18 days) - 157,000
[3DS] Super Smash Bros. for 3DS (16 days) - 1,333,333
[WIU] Bayonetta 2 (9 days) - 104,444
[PSV+PS3] Sen no Kiseki II (4 days) - 122,222
[PSV] Danganronpa Another Episode (4 days) - 43,333
[WIU] Fatal Frame V (2 days) - 50,000
 
Aug 22, 2014
265
0
0
Sinobi is a retail blogger. There are many retail game stores in Japan who are owned by or have employees who are fans themselves interested in the industry. Their predictions or forecast are not wild random guesses but generally based on the vibe at retail, along with extra data they have on hand with regards to preorders, shipments, and sales trends.
Which if not mistaken a part of what you said can't even happened until the device is on sale. I don't believe you can have sales trends before launch unless somehow he has a lot and I mean a lot of preorder data.

But ok, he may not be someone who make random guesses ok. But 38k? I don't know about that one. Does he have a list of factors for that estimate?
 
Jun 7, 2004
114,759
1
0
37
Which if not mistaken a part of what you said can't even happened until the device is on sale. I don't believe you can have sales trends before launch unless somehow he has a lot and I mean a lot of preorder data.

But ok, he may not be someone who make random guesses ok. But 38k? I don't know about that one. Does he have a list of factors for that estimate?
You can't sell more than you ship. Retailers would be in a position to know what sort of shipment size to expect in the market, as well as the general level of demand there is for a product. It's their job to know these things. Obviously sometimes success or failure can catch everyone by surprise, but it's not very common.
 
Aug 22, 2014
265
0
0
You originally said 150k-200k?
I'm going well under that. But I'll do 50k. That's more interesting.
I said it's not going to do under 50k (39k is a bit too low) and I asked what were the estimates for the earlier numbers and just threw the eralier numbers there. Also doing 50k would still be over 50k.

When the launch? 4th? 6th? (got a lot of conflicting articles) It's not far off so we will see soon enough I guess. Although it will only be tracked for 1-4 days only right?
 

mao2

Member
Jun 22, 2012
3,280
0
0
Bladestorm is also coming to PS3 and XB1. I've now updated SCEJA's list of announcements:

Way of the Samurai (working title - Vita)
Luminous Arc Infinity (Vita)
Uta no Prince-sama (working title - Vita)
Neo Romance (working title - Vita)
Deemo (Vita - also available on mobile)
One Piece: Pirate Warriors 3 (PS3/PSV/PS4)
Hot Shots Golf (working title - PS4)
God Eater 2: Rage Burst (Vita/PS4)
Ys (working title - Vita/PS4)
Senran Kagura: Estival Versus (Vita/PS4)
Touhou Project Games (Various - PS4/PSV)
Bladestorm Nightmare: The Hundred Years' War (PS3/PS4 - also available on XB1)
Summer Lesson (PS4/Morpheus)
Mobile Suit Gundam (working title - PS4)
Resident Evil: Revelations 2 (PS3/PS4 - also available on PC/360/XB1)
Earth Defense Force 4.1: The Shadow of Despair (PS4)
Fairy Fencer F: Advent Dark Force (PS4)
Disgaea 5 (PS4)
Persona 5 (PS3/PS4)
Dragon Quest Heroes (PS3/PS4)
There are a few titles you missed out.
http://game.watch.impress.co.jp/docs/news/20140902_664661.html

Croixleur Σ (working title - PS4 - also available on PC, indies)
Karaoke Joysound.TV Plus (PS4)
Dead or Alive 5 Last Round (PS3/PS4 - also available on 360/XB1)
Dynasty Warriors Online Z (PS4/PS3 - also available on PC, PS4 version is new)
Simple Series G4U Vol.1 The Mahjong (PS4)
 
Aug 22, 2014
265
0
0
You can't sell more than you ship. Retailers would be in a position to know what sort of shipment size to expect in the market, as well as the general level of demand there is for a product. It's their job to know these things. Obviously sometimes success or failure can catch everyone by surprise, but it's not very common.
But he does not have access to all retail data, you keep specking like this 38k data is something that is confirmed and final and all reports are already written and submitted. I'm not expecting a big number, but 38k, I find it hard to see how that number does not seem low to you. Doesn't that seem low to you a bit?
 

Sage00

Once And Future Member
Oct 29, 2006
6,485
0
0
Japan
But he does not have access to all retail data, you keep specking like this 38k data is something that is confirmed and final and all reports are already written and submitted. I'm not expecting a big number, but 38k, I find it hard to see how that number does not seem low to you. Doesn't that seem low to you a bit?
Seems high for Xbox in Japan.
 
May 6, 2012
6,479
0
470
Zurich, Switzerland
What's the prediction for the Xbox One launch? Bit lower than PS4 at around 200-150k?
Not sure why you would think it would do worse than the original Xbox.
Where is this 80k coming from? In fact under 80K could still be over 50k so I would win either way what?
I said it's not going to do under 50k (39k is a bit too low) and I asked what were the estimates for the earlier numbers and just threw the eralier numbers there. Also doing 50k would still be over 50k.
 
Jun 7, 2004
114,759
1
0
37
But he does not have access to all retail data, you keep specking like this 38k data is something that is confirmed and final and all reports are already written and submitted. I'm not expecting a big number, but 38k, I find it hard to see how that number does not seem low to you. Doesn't that seem low to you a bit?
No one saying it is confirmed and final. We're saying it's a good indication of the ballpark. Retailers in Japan tend to have quite a bit of retail data and information sharing. It's not a huge country and a lot of sales are centralized in the city areas. You're the one coming into the thread shouting all over the place when you don't seem to understand what people here are even talking about. It's kinda rude and dismissive, and shows your ignorance.

38k for the first week doesn't seem low to me at all. Even popular console sales in Japan are flatlining. The successor to the system which sold a mere 62k in its first two weeks in Japan is not going to do much.

Really? Because I don't ever recall Xbox entering with such low number there. 38k is almost non-existent. It's like a line at BR on free ice cream day (I think they still do that).
The Xbox360 launched in December 2005:
First two weeks - 62,135
Third week - 12,320
Fourth week - 7,315

No one in Japan gives a shit. :p
 
Mar 19, 2009
51,003
0
0
Toronto, Canada
Duckroll, apparently Dengeki PS had something on both of the missing Vita games this week you listed (DAN and Not Disgaea). No news, though.

There are a few titles you missed out.
http://game.watch.impress.co.jp/docs/news/20140902_664661.html

Croixleur Σ (working title - PS4 - also available on PC, indies)
Karaoke Joysound.TV Plus (PS4)
Dead or Alive 5 Last Round (PS3/PS4 - also available on 360/XB1)
Dynasty Warriors Online Z (PS4/PS3 - also available on PC, PS4 version is new)
Simple Series G4U Vol.1 The Mahjong (PS4)
Joysound is an app and DoA5 was officially announced prior to the conference. The rest are new, though. Were they part of the PS4 reel? I didn't notice them before.
 
Aug 22, 2014
265
0
0
Don't take me seriously, I just found it amusing how quickly your predictions went down.

but honestly, "over 50k" doesn't mean much, if anything
My predictions did not actually go down is the thing I am pointing out. The first post was meant to be a joke. But with MS announcing good preorders IIRC, I would not find it out of the park for them to strike around 90-100k (at first anyway). All I know is over 50k is probably in the bag, but things are unpredictable so i wont say I am cementing that prediction.

But they are launching with a lot more games than both the other right? So hey. You know what they say, the more the merrier.

Regardless of what they do I think we can all agree that they will probably fall down faster than than a speeding bullet after the first week or 2. Unless they throw some very big surprises at TGS,
 
Dec 15, 2012
2,701
0
0
There are a few titles you missed out.
http://game.watch.impress.co.jp/docs/news/20140902_664661.html

Croixleur Σ (working title - PS4 - also available on PC, indies)
Karaoke Joysound.TV Plus (PS4)
Dead or Alive 5 Last Round (PS3/PS4 - also available on 360/XB1)
Dynasty Warriors Online Z (PS4/PS3 - also available on PC, PS4 version is new)
Simple Series G4U Vol.1 The Mahjong (PS4)
I think there were more in the big montage at the end, at least, I'm pretty sure I saw Astebreed (another PC shoot 'em up) in there.

EDIT: But it seems that one was already announced.
 
Aug 22, 2014
265
0
0
No one saying it is confirmed and final. We're saying it's a good indication of the ballpark. Retailers in Japan tend to have quite a bit of retail data and information sharing. It's not a huge country and a lot of sales are centralized in the city areas. You're the one coming into the thread shouting all over the place when you don't seem to understand what people here are even talking about. It's kinda rude and dismissive, and shows your ignorance.

38k for the first week doesn't seem low to me at all. Even popular console sales in Japan are flatlining. The successor to the system which sold a mere 62k in its first two weeks in Japan is not going to do much.



The Xbox360 launched in December 2005:
First two weeks - 62,135
Third week - 12,320
Fourth week - 7,315

No one in Japan gives a shit. :p

I didn't dismiss anything, all I said was 38k was low. Remember, I am focusing mostly only on the launch window, I'm expecting the Xbox one to fall down after maybe some decent numbers after the first 2 MC's since this console is launching towards the end of this week. I firmly believe the Xbox One will fall similar to the 360, unless they show some great surprised at TGS, and I mean they would have to be GREAT to come back after the first 2 weeks or so.

Like buying Nintendo great or Square Enix great. So basically, not going to happen. I don't see what they can do unless Kinect takes off.
 
Jun 9, 2013
7,121
0
0
PREDICTION LEAGUE SEPTEMBER 2014

[XBO] Hardware (25 days) - 50k
[XBO] Dead Rising 3 (25 days) - 20k
[3DS] Dragon Quest X (25 days) - 55k
[PS4+PS3] Destiny (18 days) - 90k
[3DS] Super Smash Bros. for 3DS (16 days) - 900k
[WIU] Bayonetta 2 (9 days) - 85k
[PSV+PS3] Sen no Kiseki II (4 days) - 125k
[PSV] Danganronpa Another Episode (4 days) - 90k
[WIU] Fatal Frame V (2 days) - 40k

Here are my predictions ^^
 

Sage00

Once And Future Member
Oct 29, 2006
6,485
0
0
Japan
I didn't dismiss anything, all I said was 38k was low. Remember, I am focusing mostly only on the launch window, I'm expecting the Xbox one to fall down after maybe some decent numbers after the first 2 MC's since this console is launching towards the end of this week. I firmly believe the Xbox One will fall similar to the 360, unless they show some great surprised at TGS, and I mean they would have to be GREAT to come back after the first 2 weeks or so.

Like buying Nintendo great or Square Enix great. So basically, not going to happen. I don't see what they can do unless Kinect takes off.
Xbox 360 had the promise of exclusive titles from the creator of Final Fantasy / artist of Dragonball, launched a full year before the other (at the time) next gen consoles and was relatively a lot cheaper than Xbone is now.

The only thing that will save XB1 (read 'save' as 'sell >3k a week if it's lucky') is if the niche VN / shmup audience it cultivated in its earlier years who had all but moved over to PS3 by the end of the gen buys in again, based on zero evidence this time. Or the Western games audience somehow feels there are exclusives they won't be able to pick up on PS4.