That's what I see too.
Kandinsky spoke, the future of the game is sealed now.
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Media Create Sales: Week 34, 2014 (Aug 18 - Aug 24)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
That's what I see too.
Kandinsky spoke, the future of the game is sealed now.
unapersson
Member
I agree but isn't this the same with hardware? Both consoles and handhelds get new revisions that sell to the same people upgrading for the slim version, a new colour or whatever. Just look at the threads around the new DS revision and how that will boost the sales numbers.
An unknowable percentage of sales are cannibalising the existing base. It's similar with those arguments about the size of the user base and how much the market has shrunk since the PS2 sales etc. where all the revisions and re-issues distort the picture we see as we don't have all the data. Just the raw sales numbers (if we're lucky).
Naaah, an unreasonable expectation would be 2 millions: one for Dragon Quest, one for Musou. But I don't think such a thing ever hap- *remembers the first Gundam Musoh* oh.
Pennywise83
Banned
We must also consider the fact that in 2015 PS3 will be on a downward trend software-wise; hence, DQ Heroes might find on the one hand a slowly abandoned hardware, and on the other a hardware that is not able to pick up. But I guess it will sell well just because it will be the first HD DQ.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
Yeah. The only reason I expect 1 million LTD is because OP did 800k+. If that OP musou never did that I would never have believed that a musou game could reach such numbers on PS3.
Are there going to be new announcements?
Hero of Legend
Member
Edit: New 3DS game of sorts, MIGHT be related to something called Popoplocrois, mistook it for Harvest Moon, I'm pretty darn confused.
Anyone willing to translate?
Anyone willing to translate?
It's a Popolocrois and Harvest Moon crossover game. Command battle RPG. The main character is Prince Pietro and there will be a lot of characters from the series in it, so storywise it sounds like it's more Popolocrois than Harvest Moon, but it will also have the farming and town systems from Harvest Moon.
Hero of Legend
Member
Ah, I see, thanks.
Edit: This is impossible! Popolocrois is owned by SCEI!
Or just the name?http://www.covergalaxy.com/forum/at...811-popolocrois-cover-ntsc-us-popolocrois.jpg
Pennywise83
Banned
Wow, Popolocrois crossed 400k on PS1. Later episodes were more around 180k units.
I think one of the titles did have a Western release too.
I think that DQ Heroes could hit 1 million mark.
DQ spinoff could have very good results; DQ Sword was an onrail sworder, not a Musou game; One Piece and Ken's rage sold great amount of software with their first iteration.
On the other side, I'm not so sure at the moment that PS4 could reach 8/9 millions easily (I saw yesterday's duscussion), and neither Vita, especially if we all are almost sure that Wii U will struggle to sell the 4 millions the GC did.
I mean: I absolutely recognize the huge leap in terms of third party support, but still, looking at the weekly sales we saw so far, we should see a very crucial change: positively for Sony platforms and negatively for the WiiU.
I think that if we consider that the 3DS, that has asbolutely another pace compared to all of the others, will probably end around 20 millions LTD in Japan...
DQ spinoff could have very good results; DQ Sword was an onrail sworder, not a Musou game; One Piece and Ken's rage sold great amount of software with their first iteration.
On the other side, I'm not so sure at the moment that PS4 could reach 8/9 millions easily (I saw yesterday's duscussion), and neither Vita, especially if we all are almost sure that Wii U will struggle to sell the 4 millions the GC did.
I mean: I absolutely recognize the huge leap in terms of third party support, but still, looking at the weekly sales we saw so far, we should see a very crucial change: positively for Sony platforms and negatively for the WiiU.
I think that if we consider that the 3DS, that has asbolutely another pace compared to all of the others, will probably end around 20 millions LTD in Japan...
1st Course
Member
From the Square Enix thread
http://expo.nikkeibp.co.jp/tgs/2014/pdf/release_20140902_02.pdf
http://expo.nikkeibp.co.jp/tgs/2014/pdf/release_20140902_03.pdf
List of games that will be shown at TGS
http://expo.nikkeibp.co.jp/tgs/2014/pdf/release_20140902_02.pdf
http://expo.nikkeibp.co.jp/tgs/2014/pdf/release_20140902_03.pdf
List of games that will be shown at TGS
About DQH, I don´t share the "pessimism" from some users. It is a potential million-seller in my opinion, the more uncertain thing is how the split between PS3 and PS4 will look like. Also the comparison with DQSwords is pretty silly, you can´t have a useful comparison with a "on-rails RPG". DQH is releasing on systems with a certain Musou fanbase and unlike Zelda, the DQ IP has a significant shared history beeing on the same (Sony) systems with Musou titles unlike the very sporadic efforts/releases of Musou games on non-Sony systems.
Musou has seen some kind of fatigue since PS2, this has many reasons from too samey gameplay and scenarios, but popular IPs like One Piece and even Hokuto no Ken seem to have invigorated the interest of former Musou fans at least for these special "crossover" occasions, that seemed to have been lost in the generational transition, the same will likely happen with a DQ themed Musou. In general the PS fans in Japan seem to be very receptive to brand names/popular IPs despite mediocre quality, just look at sales of JoJo, Gundam, OnePiece games etc.. DQ is a huge IP, with a likely big overlap in fanbase with Musou fans, it also helps that it is a gaming focused huge IP.
This game beeing the first DQ themed game on a PS system since 2006 will also help rising hype to unreasonable levels among the systems fanbase - it will be seen and hyped as an symbolic event. which is unreasonable but we know how the minds of certain fans work.
Musou has seen some kind of fatigue since PS2, this has many reasons from too samey gameplay and scenarios, but popular IPs like One Piece and even Hokuto no Ken seem to have invigorated the interest of former Musou fans at least for these special "crossover" occasions, that seemed to have been lost in the generational transition, the same will likely happen with a DQ themed Musou. In general the PS fans in Japan seem to be very receptive to brand names/popular IPs despite mediocre quality, just look at sales of JoJo, Gundam, OnePiece games etc.. DQ is a huge IP, with a likely big overlap in fanbase with Musou fans, it also helps that it is a gaming focused huge IP.
This game beeing the first DQ themed game on a PS system since 2006 will also help rising hype to unreasonable levels among the systems fanbase - it will be seen and hyped as an symbolic event. which is unreasonable but we know how the minds of certain fans work.
And_Gignac
Member
Lol dat Kandinsky curse.
I don't see it selling 1m or changing PS4's fortune in the short term.
More likely than GE having sold 450k in the last 7 months: February, 2014, 2 million in Japan
As for One Piece Musou: March, 2013, 1: 1.2 million + 2: 0.5 million = 1.7 million. Another 300k copies since then worldwide.
Although, there's also uncertainty about which numbers include downloads and which don't.
Pennywise83
Banned
?
DQ saw "only" two mainline entries on Sony hardware, and few spin-offs and remakes. DQ actually never left Nintendo (DQM on GB, for example); SQEX developed six mainline entries before DQVII and one mainline entry after DQVIII (the best selling one to date) on Nintendo hardware. Also, SQEX has been exclusively (talking about consoles) releasing DQ on Nintendo hardware since 2006.
To me, DQ has always been closer to Nintendo than Sony, just by looking at the number of releases and sales. Of course, time might change and the IP go all on PS/mobile from now on.
Dragon Quest 8 released November 2004
1Mio. Split PS3/PS4 could happen but i don´t think it will happen. What i believe is that DQ from this point on will be a Multi IP split between Nintendo and Sony.
SE would be realy stupid to loose the builded Core Base on the HH with DQM, Remakes and Main Games.
Maybe i will eat crow in the future but i don´t see a single scenario where a DQ Game will catch nearly the sales on a PS like it did on DS/3DS/PS2.
Putting a Mainline DQ on PS3/PS4 only would be a stupid decision since DQX being an MMO on the Wii.
The best Way for SE would be PS3/Wii + PS4 or a 3DS only release in terms for Sales.
DQ7 and DQ8 were relevant releases on PS1 and PS2 on their own (while both, the N64 and GC got completely neglected) and the last Dragon Quest themed game on a Sony system was in 2006. Also there´s no point to ignore several very popular remakes and ports. They even ported the Dragon Quest Monster games to PS1 and were quite successful.
Nightengale
Member
Single scenario? There is one.
Another 'singularity' happens, ( Dragon Quest 3, MH PSP, Youkai Watch, Wii Sports ) where an exclusive game not named DQ appeared to bolster the market share and momentum of PS back to the glory days.
Aka needle in a haystack scenario. NEVAH.
oh ok maybe after 9 Years the PS3 will find its needle.
"DQ-level" (main-series) is quite a different beast at the very least 3 million units and this would be even considered underperforming. SQEX have quite different expectations at the very least 3.5m and the actual range likely something like 3.5m-4.5m.
Also to clarify I didn´t mean that DQH could become a multi-million seller, more like selling in the range of a million units isn´t completely out of question, but still quite a challenge.
Cosmo Clock 21
Banned
It's a little disingenuous to call P3rd completely unrelated to Tri; they share the same game engine and it borrowed about 75% of the content from Tri and added a lot of stuff in its own right.
Bladestorm is also coming to PS3 and XB1. I've now updated SCEJA's list of announcements:
Way of the Samurai (working title - Vita)
Luminous Arc Infinity (Vita)
Uta no Prince-sama (working title - Vita)
Neo Romance (working title - Vita)
Deemo (Vita - also available on mobile)
One Piece: Pirate Warriors 3 (PS3/PSV/PS4)
Hot Shots Golf (working title - PS4)
God Eater 2: Rage Burst (Vita/PS4)
Ys (working title - Vita/PS4)
Senran Kagura: Estival Versus (Vita/PS4)
Touhou Project Games (Various - PS4/PSV)
Bladestorm Nightmare: The Hundred Years' War (PS3/PS4 - also available on XB1)
Summer Lesson (PS4/Morpheus)
Mobile Suit Gundam (working title - PS4)
Resident Evil: Revelations 2 (PS3/PS4 - also available on PC/360/XB1)
Earth Defense Force 4.1: The Shadow of Despair (PS4)
Fairy Fencer F: Advent Dark Force (PS4)
Disgaea 5 (PS4)
Persona 5 (PS3/PS4)
Dragon Quest Heroes (PS3/PS4)
Way of the Samurai (working title - Vita)
Luminous Arc Infinity (Vita)
Uta no Prince-sama (working title - Vita)
Neo Romance (working title - Vita)
Deemo (Vita - also available on mobile)
One Piece: Pirate Warriors 3 (PS3/PSV/PS4)
Hot Shots Golf (working title - PS4)
God Eater 2: Rage Burst (Vita/PS4)
Ys (working title - Vita/PS4)
Senran Kagura: Estival Versus (Vita/PS4)
Touhou Project Games (Various - PS4/PSV)
Bladestorm Nightmare: The Hundred Years' War (PS3/PS4 - also available on XB1)
Summer Lesson (PS4/Morpheus)
Mobile Suit Gundam (working title - PS4)
Resident Evil: Revelations 2 (PS3/PS4 - also available on PC/360/XB1)
Earth Defense Force 4.1: The Shadow of Despair (PS4)
Fairy Fencer F: Advent Dark Force (PS4)
Disgaea 5 (PS4)
Persona 5 (PS3/PS4)
Dragon Quest Heroes (PS3/PS4)
Pennywise83
Banned
You're right, I read it wrong: sporadic releases of DQ on non-Sony hardware; instead was sporadic releases of Musou.
No problem and I also agree with you that Dragon Quest actually has been more Nintendo centric, the first game debuted on the Nintendo Famicom and every mainline entry debuted on Nintendo systems, with 7 and 8 as the only exceptions. But my point was more about the relationship between DQ-Musou and Zelda-Musou, when it comes to possible synergies.
This could have been your argument and we could debate it in a rational way. But the added point which I have struck out is completely irrelevant. Do you really think Japan cares about "PS4 level visuals"? Or that it has much (or any) impact on the selling power of a series like Dragon Quest? Just look at what the best selling entries are and what they look like.
oh i forgot the factor where sales in japan was very effected by high visuals...
High visuals the main reason for good sales in Japan! PS4 will sell like gangbusters
Nightengale
Member
Do we have any real details on this?
The announcement was pretty vague... it basically said that Koei's bringing Neo Romance line over to Vita, but Neo Romance is just a Koei-brand sub-genre for its otome games.
It could easily be an entirely new game, several games, ports or whatever. ( not that it matters to most of us, but eh )
Yeah, at this point it seems only NIS and Compile Heart believe so much in PS4 to have exclusive titles for it. Eh.
Cross-platform support still helps though. For example, I think Wii U's future might not look quite as dire if it also had HD versions of MH4G, One Peice GBX, FF Explorers, SWC3 and Bravely Second coming this year.
Sony was smart encouraging this sort of support to keep Vita going past it's abyssmal (ie: worse even than Wii U) early sales and now they're doing the same for PS4, whoch never would've gotten these sorts of games as exvlusives at this stage. I think this is basically ensuring PS4 lives long enough to eventually turn things around when the exclusives do show up.
That's because those two budget so low that they can probably get the same amount of sales on PS4 as they would PS3.
sörine;128132966 said:
It's certainly much, much, much better than not getting anything at all, of course. Despite being multi releases, they help making the platform more attractive in the long run for sure. And it's certainly good that Sony acted in the right way on this front. Still, having more exclusives would be better. Heck, first party exclusives, if released with a good pace and in good quantity would be great. Unfortunately, this is SCEJA we're talking about
Nightengale
Member
It's practically no different with the western developers... 90% of all games released to-date are all cross-gen, and will remain so well into the year's end, and maybe even first-half of next year.
The important thing is that the first wave of support needs to be strong. As far as year 'one' (sarcasm) Japan support is concerned, I'd say the line-up for 2015 is pretty solid, cross-gen or not.
There's cross-gen spin-off releases from practically every major third-party Japanese franchises (DQ, FF, WE, BIO, etc ), potentially 2 flagship titles ( MGS, Persona ), and a good mix of titles of various other niches, both big/small (Gundam, Disgaea, EDF, potentially IM@S, etc ) that all a dedicated fanbase that will buy hardware for said games, however small the base is.
The big question now is Sony. Sony's big problem is that they have no 'system seller IPs' in Japan that's coming out anytime soon. Bloodborne could potentially be big, but that's only one game. Will GT7 and Minna Golf be released next year? Honestly, Sony needs to effing get both those games out ASAP.
However, their own output aside, I say that Sony has done a decent job of positioning the PS4 as the 'hardware' to get if you want the best of everything.
Sure, many games are cross-gen, but there's enough of 'cross-gen without Vita' + 'cross-gen without PS3' + 'PS4 exclusive' in-between that could potentially sway the audience into thinking "eh, I might as well get a PS4 since then I'll get to play everything."
It's not all that great, but I'm a lot more optimistic for Sony's 2015 now than I was a week ago. Even as a cross-gen game, I never imagined DQ coming to PS4, and Persona 5... I was assuming they'll go the cross-gen late port route, but damn, simultaneous release!
Nightengale
Member
I also imagine we'll start seeing more western games for 2015 be strictly current-gen only... Not the big ones of course, but more than the current batch.
As minor as it is, that should also help increase PS4 sales somewhat. Too bad it's almost a given CoD will still be cross-gen next year.
As minor as it is, that should also help increase PS4 sales somewhat. Too bad it's almost a given CoD will still be cross-gen next year.
Assassin's Creed Unity is out this year and it's already current-gen only. That's a pretty huge title.
BishopLamont
Banned
DQ has the potential to sell a mil being released on PS3/PS4 but I'm surprised they're not releasing on the Vita also, musous have always done well there.
mh4u will show if the series has not only stopped growing but is also declining, but with series at this size we also have to take into the account the number of people willing to wait for mh4u before jumping in.
yeah, only reason it was like that because the series was still growing on the psp
mh4u will show if the series has not only stopped growing but is also declining, but with series at this size we also have to take into the account the number of people willing to wait for mh4u before jumping in.
Does someone have numbers for new revision of handheld in Japan?
DS Light, DSi, DSiXL, PSP2000, PSPGo (LOL?), PSVita2000?
I wonder how the "New" 3DSs will act like. Portable market is weaker than in the past, but the new features seem pretty strong, compared to some of the previous revisions I've listed.
DS Light, DSi, DSiXL, PSP2000, PSPGo (LOL?), PSVita2000?
I wonder how the "New" 3DSs will act like. Portable market is weaker than in the past, but the new features seem pretty strong, compared to some of the previous revisions I've listed.
Nightengale
Member
AssCreed doesn't seem to do that well in Japan though, CoD and BF always seem to triple or double its LTD.
I'm talking from the perspective of western games that do 'decent' in Japan. Ubisoft games never seem to do that, strangely.
Obviously they need to pull the AssCreed Japan card.
Following up on an earlier thought I had about Persona 4 Dancing All Night being absent, it's not the only 2014 Vita game which has mysteriously disappeared.
http://www.compileheart.com/trillion/
What happened to this? Idea Factory made a pretty big deal out of it. It's the ex-Disgaea team making a brand new IP for them. It's supposed to be out in 2014 for the Vita. We have never seen any actual gameplay footage. It was completely missing from the conference yesterday even though Compile Heart totally showed a bunch of other stuff there.
Delayed to 2015?
http://www.compileheart.com/trillion/
What happened to this? Idea Factory made a pretty big deal out of it. It's the ex-Disgaea team making a brand new IP for them. It's supposed to be out in 2014 for the Vita. We have never seen any actual gameplay footage. It was completely missing from the conference yesterday even though Compile Heart totally showed a bunch of other stuff there.
Delayed to 2015?
1st party exclusives are coming next year but yeah, SCEJA was totally unprepared and really should have had more at this point. Still, I feel like this strategy is a pretty reliable one and Nintendo would've been much better served leaning harder on 3rd parties with a similar approach. They were in the beginning (MH3G, DQX) and even though those titles performed well it seemed to halt anyway.It's certainly much, much, much better than not getting anything at all, of course. Despite being multi releases, they help making the platform more attractive in the long run for sure. And it's certainly good that Sony acted in the right way on this front. Still, having more exclusives would be better. Heck, first party exclusives, if released with a good pace and in good quantity would be great. Unfortunately, this is SCEJA we're talking about
Kresnik258
Member
I've been making a fuss about this everywhere (most recently on NISA's forums and IFI's forums) asking if anyone knew anything about it.
Last update from May.
Tbh, Compile Heart have announced a hell of a lot of stuff lately, 3 PS4 games in development must be taking up a lot of their resources.
It'd be nice just to have some kind of news about it to know it hasn't been completely cancelled. Don't want another Chronos Materia that just disappears off the face of the earth!
I like how the games that are exclusive to PS4 are largely the ones that will least benefit from it technologically.
Earth Defense Force is of course an exception.
theprodigy
Member
PREDICTION LEAGUE SEPTEMBER 2014
Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Sep 1 to Sep 28):
[XBO] Hardware (25 days) - 55,555
[XBO] Dead Rising 3 (25 days) - 23,456
[3DS] Dragon Quest X (25 days) - 111,111
[PS4+PS3] Destiny (18 days) - 123,456
[3DS] Super Smash Bros. for 3DS (16 days) - 1,234,567
[WIU] Bayonetta 2 (9 days) - 56,789
[PSV+PS3] Sen no Kiseki II (4 days) - 135,790
[PSV] Danganronpa Another Episode (4 days) - 54,321
[WIU] Fatal Frame V (2 days) - 22,222
weeee
(hey Mpl could you pull up the Comgnet preorder thing again for SSB 3DS)
Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Sep 1 to Sep 28):
[XBO] Hardware (25 days) - 55,555
[XBO] Dead Rising 3 (25 days) - 23,456
[3DS] Dragon Quest X (25 days) - 111,111
[PS4+PS3] Destiny (18 days) - 123,456
[3DS] Super Smash Bros. for 3DS (16 days) - 1,234,567
[WIU] Bayonetta 2 (9 days) - 56,789
[PSV+PS3] Sen no Kiseki II (4 days) - 135,790
[PSV] Danganronpa Another Episode (4 days) - 54,321
[WIU] Fatal Frame V (2 days) - 22,222
weeee
(hey Mpl could you pull up the Comgnet preorder thing again for SSB 3DS)
Predictions
[XBO] Hardware (25 days) - 65.432
[XBO] Dead Rising 3 (25 days) - 23.456
[3DS] Dragon Quest X (25 days) - 123.456
[PS4+PS3] Destiny (18 days) - 210.987
[3DS] Super Smash Bros. for 3DS (16 days) - 1.234.567
[WIU] Bayonetta 2 (9 days) - 43.210
[PSV+PS3] Sen no Kiseki II (4 days) - 98.765
[PSV] Danganronpa Another Episode (4 days) - 45.678
[WIU] Fatal Frame V (2 days) - 21.098
[XBO] Hardware (25 days) - 65.432
[XBO] Dead Rising 3 (25 days) - 23.456
[3DS] Dragon Quest X (25 days) - 123.456
[PS4+PS3] Destiny (18 days) - 210.987
[3DS] Super Smash Bros. for 3DS (16 days) - 1.234.567
[WIU] Bayonetta 2 (9 days) - 43.210
[PSV+PS3] Sen no Kiseki II (4 days) - 98.765
[PSV] Danganronpa Another Episode (4 days) - 45.678
[WIU] Fatal Frame V (2 days) - 21.098