Oh wait, you're right. I got numbers flipped in my head! I was thinking 700k, but I checked. At least KH2 sold 1.1m. KH1 still didn't though.
Then again, that was also PS2, so... >.>
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Media Create Sales: Week 34, 2015 (Aug 17 - Aug 23)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
Oh wait, you're right. I got numbers flipped in my head! I was thinking 700k, but I checked. At least KH2 sold 1.1m. KH1 still didn't though.
Then again, that was also PS2, so... >.>
KH1 didn't pass a million, you have to add Final Mix and all the reprints for that. BBS and DDD (both considered "mainline" installments) also fell well short of a million.
I also think VII could outsell XV honestly.
theprodigy
Member
It's not like anyone ever figured out what "crazy expectations" the blog was referring to in the first place.
But in a >20 million userbase...
Not without combining 4 different SKUs.
Not exactly. the original Kingdom Hearts came out in March 2002, I'm not sure how many units the PS2 had sold in Japan by that time, but I can safely say it wasn't on a greater than 20 million userbase. By the time Kingdom Hearts 3 comes out PS4 might be at 5+ million in Japan so it could make it.
Eolz
Member
Again, I'm really not sure about what LTD means for the WiiU. But I counted Fall 2016 for Splatoon (so maybe 1.3M?), so I'd say between 1.55M and 1.65M for MK8 at the same time.
And yes, that's because the WiiU userbase is the really the same that I count this as a problem for Splatoon. MK8 is more accessible/mainstream (not by much considering how home consoles are doing in Japan, but still). I also agree for the Splatoon bundle, but this is still the WiiU, not a new console. I don't think a Splatoon bundle will (apart from first weeks obviously) raise the weekly average WiiU sales.
You expect KH3 to come out in mid to late 2017, potentially 2018?
Yeah sometime in 2017
Gotta realize though that 600K of KH1's sales came from SKUs released after the initial release.
I understand that the original Kingdom Hearts is being used as a reason for Kingdom Hearts 3 not crossing a million, and I'm not even saying it will. I'm actually not confident at all about Kingdom Hearts 3 making it to a million, but I think Kingdom Hearts 2 would be a better example of a mainline Kingdom Hearts sales in Japan, because it's a sequel, meaning it's the most recent main game.
It was at 7.6m the week the original KH came out.
I'm not too sure at the PS4 selling that much at all.
I think it depends on what RE7 is exactly. Too many unknowns right now.
As a fall 16 ps4 esclusive? I would say 550k up to 700k the year after with the gold edition
ZSaberLink
Media Create Maven
Most people here aren't to be honest. We're thinking maybe 5-6 M lifetime sales unless sales pick up. It's still trailing the PS3's sales significantly at this point and the market outside of 3DS & mobile is much weaker than it's ever been.
Eolz
Member
sörine;176737839 said:
This. Way too soon to say just on a name. I'd probably say 700k in the high guesses, but still possible
It's certainly not on its way to do that number in mid 2017.
Ōkami;176737511 said:
What's even more surprising is that the PlayStation 2 had sold 6.1 million units in the same time it's taken the PlayStation 4 to reach 1.7 million units today.
I expect PlayStation 4's total hardware sales to have exceeded that number before the end of its lifecycle, but I don't expect total sales to exceed it that much.
That isn't surprising.
ZSaberLink
Media Create Maven
What were the PS3 & Wii U at in similar timeframes if you have those numbers on hand?
How do guys think it can be that low? What do guys expect the PS4 to sell in the following years? How soon do you think the PS4 will be replaced? I'm pretty sure in every single one of those I have completely different opinions than most people here.
Wait, 7.6 millions is not simply more than 5 millions, is 50% more, a lifetime difference in the actual japanese home market...
Yeah, i agreed with you.
Some like 6 million for PS4 lifetime is what it should sell... just for know, what's your prediction year on year for 2016, 2017 ecc?
Because i know you have your prediction for global sales:
http://i481.photobucket.com/albums/rr180/jabbamk1/Forecast2014REV2_zpsjmuevfai.jpg
ZSaberLink
Media Create Maven
Better than Wii U long term, but a good bit worse than PS3. Keep in mind that after the 3DS's successful turnaround, we've seen the Vita, Wii U & PS4 fall flat back to back to back. PS4 has a chance to recover thanks to its worldwide success, but it's a home console in Japan still.
I think PS4 will have a shorter lifespan than the PS3 by a long shot. Last gen was an odd generation spurred by great sales across the board, and the fact that Sony was finally making money on the PS3 towards the end. In addition, with the trend of people upgrading smartphones pretty frequently and the fact that the PS4 & XB1 already compare unfavorably to PCs (360 & PS3 were really powerful at launch for their time), people are expecting replacements sooner. I'm thinking the typical 5 years still though.
Ah, I see. I'm still baffled about people thinking the PS4 is only going to last like five years. These games take forever to make now. The PS4 won't have a robust library until probably six years in at the rate we're going here. I doubt Sony wants these games taking longer by releasing another console when the eighth generation is finally getting a ton of games. By the time Uncharted 4 comes out next year it will be nearly three years since the PS4 was released, in that same time frame, two Naughty Dog games (Uncharted 1 and 2) were released on the PS3. I also think Sony wants to wait longer for good technology to become less expensive so they can release a good console at an affordable price and avoid a PS3 situation again.
Edit: Also, PS4 will sell like 300k more than PS3 in 2008, and will receive a big price cut next year along with a lot of heavy hitters, and some small hitters to boost hardware sales tremendously and mildly. I expect 2 million for PS4 next year. Of course, I'm optimistic and many people are pessimistic about the PS4 sales but I don't see that being too far out of bounds considering what actually is happening next year.
What are the PS4 heavy hitters next year anyway?
There's DQ11.
Does Uncharted count in Japan...?
Is RE7 scheduled to come out next year? I don't follow it but I see it mentioned. But that'd be too soon to come out in 2016 though.
Am I missing something obvious?
Don't anyone say KH3 or FFXV or I'll have a word with you lol
There's DQ11.
Does Uncharted count in Japan...?
Is RE7 scheduled to come out next year? I don't follow it but I see it mentioned. But that'd be too soon to come out in 2016 though.
Am I missing something obvious?
Don't anyone say KH3 or FFXV or I'll have a word with you lol
Uncharted 3 sold 125,000 first week, so, will definitive help a bit the PS4 sales.
I'm pretty sure FFXV was confirmed to be coming out in 2016, but we were given no solid release date. Same with Dragon Quest. I think Kingdom Hearts is coming out in 2017. Pretty much every exclusive gives PS4 a boost. I don't think Street Fighter is big in Japan anymore but it will give the PS4 a boost. Otherwise I'm drawing a blank on any other super huge heavy hitters other FFXV and Dragon Quest but there are a lot of smaller, Japanese centric games that will boost the PS4 sales. Every western game has seen growth in Japan so maybe Uncharted 4 will do pretty well in Japan.
Yeah, Street Fighter. I knew I was missing something obvious.
And hearing about Uncharted 3s FW, 4 should count.
My personal timetable has been FFVX Late 2017, and KH3 Late 2018.
eve since they both missed e3 2014 I've been saying that, and I won't budge despite what devs say tbh.
EDIT:
I guess CoD counts too given its sales.
And hearing about Uncharted 3s FW, 4 should count.
My personal timetable has been FFVX Late 2017, and KH3 Late 2018.
eve since they both missed e3 2014 I've been saying that, and I won't budge despite what devs say tbh.
EDIT:
I guess CoD counts too given its sales.
That's just it, why do you think PS4 will only sell 100k more than this year in 2016?
theprodigy
Member
It's good you are excited you joined GAF but it's not bad to hold back for a while. You can't expect to be able to analyze entire PS4 lifetime trends from now.
If I had to guess final ltds based on what we know now I'd say 6.75m PS4, 5.25m Vita, 3.5m Wii U, 75k One and 23.5m 3DS.
For the SE trinity I get the feeling they may be targeting release for them all in roughly a year. Like say DQXI summer 2016, FFXV holiday 2016 and KH3 spring 2017. FFXV may foul that up though given it's supposed development problems. DQ Heroes 2 is also confirmed for next year I think?
RE7 isn't even announced yet. People are assuming it's in the works and will be on PS4/One/PC, which isn't an outlandish bet. Other likely good bets are DMC5 (PS4/One/PC), Tekken 7 (PS4/One/PC), Dynasty Warriors 9 (PS4 only?) a new Tales (PS4 only or maybe PC), Project Diva f3 (PS4/Vita), Winning Eleven 2018 (PS4/One/PC) and Yakuza 6 (PS4 only). I think next year is when PS3 ports get dropped by the bigger 3rd parties. There's also western games like COD, Battlefield, etc, which seem to be overperforming on PS4. Maybe we'll see a physical Mnecraft release too.
For the SE trinity I get the feeling they may be targeting release for them all in roughly a year. Like say DQXI summer 2016, FFXV holiday 2016 and KH3 spring 2017. FFXV may foul that up though given it's supposed development problems. DQ Heroes 2 is also confirmed for next year I think?
I came from that other site that was based around sales, if you know what I mean. I 've always been interested in Japan sales. They're fun .
Through 79 weeks, the PS4 is at 1,694,032 the PS3 was at 2,042,577 and the WiiU was at 1,778,632.
For what it worth, the PS4 should pass the WiiU in the first couple of weeks in October, and should pass the PS3 launch aligned in the first week of 2016.
ZSaberLink
Media Create Maven
Thanks folks!
Btw, back when we got release dates for Wii U games in NA & Europe, did we get any dates from Japan? I'm curious what's the release schedule after Mario Maker for Japan.
Mario Maker got a couple more preorders at comgnet at least.
[WiiU] Super Mario Maker - 18pt
You... You... You apparently compared ME to Zhuge!?!?!? :O
I'm not worthy!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! xD
OfficerRaichu15
Member
So what's Splatoon's total since we know it digital #'s?
Hahahahaha!
To be fair I think the PS4 will sell 6 million in less time. I think Ryngs prediction is too low for 2016/17.
But hey, lets wait and see.
It's like when we compare Moor-Angol to his hidden identity.
Hino
------
Well, your expectations for PS4 are not that bad. IMO, it's a lock that next year sales will be higher that this year.
kuroneko0509
Member
new dates? nope
as for what is on wii u (with exact date) after Super Mario Maker..... Lego Jurassic World on 5th November >.>
unless the software calendar in this month's dengeki nintendo is already outdated lol
welp dengeki nintendo list is outdated lol
[Wii U] Lego Jurassic World (November, 5th)
[Wii U] Disney Infinity 3.0 (November, 12th)
[Wii U] Silver Star Shogi: Kyoutendo Toufuu Raijin (November, 19th)
[Wii U] Taiko no Tatsujin: Atsumete Tomodachi Daisakusen (Novermber, 26th)
November is the month for Wii U. Nintendo needs to move towards a Splatoon bundle at that time.
EDIT: Lego Avengers, Animal Crossing: Amiibo Festival, Starfox Rei, and Mario Tennis Ultra Smash are also dated for this year, though. Yokai Watch X JUST DANCE is for this year I guess.