You are also missing the point. Right now Splatoon has 100+% attach rate week after week because the majority shipment of Switch unit is Splattoon 2 bundles. I'm not saying people chose to buy the bundle to save money but rather that's the only choice to get a Switch.
If Nintendo decides to push another game like SMO in a bundle, Splatoon 2 will not have 100% attach rate weekly and it will rely on Switch to sell insane amount of units in 2018 to hit that goal. Was there any precedent that a game sells 3 million in 6 month then sell another 2 million in the next 12 months without bundling? If that were to happen and with the long tail everyone expected for Splatoon 2, it's gonna be easily the best selling games of all time in Japan.
I've been saying for a while that we are seeing AC/YW like growth for Splatoon, and the sequel is one of the main reasons the Switch is performing so well in Japan - despite it's high price compared to prior handhelds.
The game itself will continue to receive updates and that will ensure it remains relevant for at least the next year as the updates are rolled out. We'd see smaller updates like maps, weapons etc and larger ones like clothing lines, additional modes, more community features via the smart phone app etc. It's basically a game that Nintendo needs to do exceptionally well in Japan in order to drive subs for their paid online service.
Japan will be one of the few places where people will be able to reguararly meet up and play things like Salmon Run, League Battles together in groups of 2,4 or 8. While Nintendo will continue to push Splatoon as Japan's first eSport. With Spectator mode being added and tons of content creators for the game(
25k new videos just from this month on youtube) as well as tournaments being organized all over Japan and the World will ensure the games remains relevant for quiet some time. I expect it to be featured on several future Nintendo directs as the game ise expanded.
The current audience of the Switch is just a small fraction of possible owners of the system in the next 2 years. I expect that by the end of 2018 Switch will be between 8-10 million in Japan. I don't expect Splatoon 2 to follow similar trajectory to YW or AC, I expect Splatoon 2 to outdo both games in the long run. By the end of 2018 I wouldn't be surprised if Splatoon 2 is still around 60% attach rate in Japan. Simply the way that the games continues to update, while Nintendo continue to market it via tournaments, events, merchandise and content which is generated by people it's going to have long legs. We haven't seen a major eSport game in the best seller games of all time in Japan so I think unless we count Pokemon Splatoon 2 will be the first.
I think Splatoon 2 could have an extremely large and dedicated audience in Japan for the next few years. People who both play and watch/buy a lot of Splatoon 2 related things. It could be bigger than either AC or YW became. Personally I think Splatoon 2 appeals to a wider audience and Nintendo will develop a lot of marketing strategies around keeping the game popular.
