Media Create Sales: Week 36, 2014 (Sep 01 - Sep 07)

Eddie Griffin

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Aug 30, 2014
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So you don't think a meaningful number of people who already own a regular 3ds would ever upgrade? Because every exclusive game or feature is a new reason for someone to upgrade. It can't sell systems to people who don't care about the games, but upgrades are still anet increase in sales.
I dont understand how you got nobody upgrading from my post. I just don't think people will still be buying reg 3ds systems, leading to n3ds not increasing sales just replacing.
 

MasterSheen

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Feb 3, 2012
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Tomorrow we find out if the Xbox really is dead. If it dips below 10k its possibly exception would be low sales across the board. Then the limit would be 6k.

Tomorrow we find out how much smash does fir the 3DS. If sales dont double then they better start rethinking their strategy at nintendo.

Tomorrow we will find out if any of Sony announcements brought up sales for the PS4. If its still sending 5k or so well, PS4 won't be moving much in the future.
Is this all a serious post? What's it matter if it sells slightly below 10k or slightly above it or whatever. They may as well all be the same number, as far as Xbone's future is concerned.
 

duckroll

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I dont understand how you got nobody upgrading from my post. I just don't think people will still be buying reg 3ds systems, leading to n3ds not increasing sales just replacing.
The sales will increase by mere virtue of there being a much larger market of people who want a better 3DS, rather than people who don't have a 3DS yet still wanting to buy one.
 

fredrancour

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Jun 11, 2009
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I dont understand how you got nobody upgrading from my post. I just don't think people will still be buying reg 3ds systems, leading to n3ds not increasing sales just replacing.
My failure of a cell phone just ate a wall of text i was trying to type. I'll respond from a real computer later if no one else speaks up with similar ideas first.
 

shinra-bansho

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Nov 13, 2011
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The sales will increase by mere virtue of there being a much larger market of people who want a better 3DS, rather than people who don't have a 3DS yet still wanting to buy one.
In Japan or globally? Although, the query might be relevant either way.

Is there going to be a substantial upgrade market? Enough to offset continued declines in new buyers. It will have been 3.5 years between 3DS launch and n3DS launch. In that time there's been massive growth in tablet and smartphone adoption. Massive growth in mobile. How many of the people who currently have a 3DS won't be in the market for an actual generational transition, let alone a product refresh revision.
 

Eddie Griffin

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Aug 30, 2014
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The sales will increase by mere virtue of there being a much larger market of people who want a better 3DS, rather than people who don't have a 3DS yet still wanting to buy one.
It seems obvious the n3ds is going to not increase 3rd sales and cut the install base. The n3ds is not a new system, so I can only see it replacing the sales of people buying a regular 3rd or ll. Especially recent buyers.
 

Eddie Griffin

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Aug 30, 2014
337
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East coast
Is this all a serious post? What's it matter if it sells slightly below 10k or slightly above it or whatever. They may as well all be the same number, as far as Xbone's future is concerned.
If they end up selling mote around the same as when it had that horrible launch, it will show buyer interest.

If below 10k, or 6k if sales are low across the board, most likely the former, the rubberband will snap at that point. There would be no recovery from a drop that deep. It would be hard for them even to get to 100,000 ltd at that point.
 

duckroll

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I'm confused as to what the debate here actually is. Right now the 3DS is selling about 30k a week. When the New 3DS is released, I would assume that only very poorly informed people would continue to buy the old 3DS units unless there is a significant price drop. Stores would also not be likely to carry much stock of the older units. But then the audience for the New 3DS would be everyone who was already buying the 3DS (~30k a week right now) *plus* everyone who would be willing to upgrade to the New 3DS, spearheaded by the Monster Hunter 4G bundle. Later this year, the Amiibo push will also come into effect, and there will be a sizable Smash 3DS userbase who would want to take advantage of it.

Is there a suggestion that with the launch of the New 3DS the sales would not increase significantly? Because that is ridiculous and an impossibility. There is no question that with the launch of the New 3DS, not only will overall 3DS hardware sales go up sharply, but that they will remain at a higher level until at the very least early next year. I don't think that is in doubt at all.
 

shinra-bansho

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Nov 13, 2011
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I'm sure there will be at least a transient upswing. I think the question mark in the premise is that the sales of current 3DS, which for the sake of simplicity we assume are completely replaced, are stable. Then adding upgrade buyers leading to net sustained improvement.

In the event that new buyers decline at the same rate as upgrade buyers adopt, or faster, then the net effect is just current sales or in the event of the latter, continuing decline.
 

zroid

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Nov 7, 2011
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Is it not true that the n3DS will be replacing the 3DS at retail? Since they are the same price I just assumed the old models are being discontinued.
 

duckroll

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There is more than enough push coming for the next 4-5 months. The question will be what happens in 2015 and how Nintendo continues to make the New 3DS an attractive proposition. That question is harder to answer now because announcements pertaining to that will only start to appear early next year. I feel confident that it is the direction Nintendo is leaning towards though, and that Xenoblade is not the only title which will be New 3DS only. Their efforts will probably be relatively successful in Japan in particular. Outside of Japan, that's a much harder call.
 

hongcha

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Aug 7, 2011
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I can see there being a market for the original 3DS LL even after the new N3DS LL is released, at least until next year. The new buttons and stick are only useful right now for MonHun and a few other games, there will be no exclusive N3DS games until 2015, and the 3DS LL has a much wider range of colours (the lack of a white N3DS LL is baffling). I can't see how anyone would prefer the original 3DS, as that is a piece of junk and the new ones look so much nicer, not to mention the kisekae plates make them very appealing.

Also, the N3DS and N3DS LL are about 1000 yen more expensive than the old models. Add in inevitable discounts from retailers trying to clear old 3DS/3DS LL stock, and many may prefer to go with the older models for the time being because they are cheaper.
 

watershed

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Mar 12, 2011
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Is it not true that the n3DS will be replacing the 3DS at retail? Since they are the same price I just assumed the old models are being discontinued.
The New 3ds and LL models will definitely replace the current models just as how the dsi and dsi LL eventually replaced the ds lite. There's going to be a transition period at retail but Nintendo is not going to keep making older 3ds models.
 
Outside of Japan, that's a much harder call.
I feel they have a couple issues there.

1.) The system is doing really poorly now. It just hit 91K in NPD.
2.) The New 3DS is out notably later, so there's a question of how many people would still be notably interested in adding better controls for a game they've been playing for 3-6 months already (assuming they're even still playing Smash by then).
3.) The announced future line-up looks really, really thin for the 3DS, especially in terms of notable sellers in the West releasing in 2015.

It's a lot easier for me to imagine notable titles in Japan having New 3DS upgrades and give them the benefit of the doubt that at least a few more big titles are coming given the system's position in Japan even if they're not announced currently.

In the West games like Monster Hunter 5 or Dragon Quest 11 wouldn't be meaningful though.
 

shinra-bansho

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Nov 13, 2011
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Oh, I thought we were discussing longer term (my fault for entering the middle of the discussion). In the near term 6 months or so I could see an improvement, but that's still relatively transient for a revision that presumably needs to sustain sales for at least a 1-2 years until successor launch.

Outside Japan I'd have serious doubts about potential to increase sales beyond current levels. It did 91k last NPD. When the n3DS launches in the US, what will that be down to? Are there enough upgrade buyers to offset?
 

Man God

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Nov 2, 2007
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There is more than enough push coming for the next 4-5 months. The question will be what happens in 2015 and how Nintendo continues to make the New 3DS an attractive proposition. That question is harder to answer now because announcements pertaining to that will only start to appear early next year. I feel confident that it is the direction Nintendo is leaning towards though, and that Xenoblade is not the only title which will be New 3DS only. Their efforts will probably be relatively successful in Japan in particular. Outside of Japan, that's a much harder call.
Japan loves new models in general. It even gives a noticeable boost to lagging systems. The push with 4u is going to be great and should sustain it through the Holidays.

The west though...the only thing I can think of as a New 3DS exclusive that might push units would be something along the lines of...Super Smash Bros. Melee online edition.
 

StormKing

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Jun 8, 2014
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3DS 2013 Major releases(western)
Fire Emblem Awakening
Monster Hunter 3U
Luigi's Mansion: Dark Moon
Pokemon Mystery Dungeon: Gates to Infinity
Donkey Kong Returns 3D
Animal Crossing: New Leaf
Shin Megami Tensei IV(NA only)
Mario Party 3D: Island Tour
TLOZ: Link Between Worlds
Pokemon X/Y

3DS managed to sell approximately 8 million units in the west in 2013.

3DS 2015 Tentative Major releases(western)
Bravely Second
Monster Hunter 4U
Xenoblade Chronicles(New 3DS only)
Project STEAM
Final Fantasy Explorers
Yokai Watch

2015 release schedule does look thin so far. However, there are only two first party 3DS game announced so far. I expect that we'll see at least 4 more announcements from Nintendo. TLOZ: Majora's Mask, Pokemon spinoff, Pokemon Z, Mario spinoff is the minimum that I'm expecting.

Sales will probably be lower overall but 3DS will still be able to sell 10 million.
 

crinale

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Sep 25, 2008
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Just looked at the super secret blog and saw somthing bombed hard.
Wondering what he really meant, hmm.
 

ZSaberLink

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Jul 29, 2010
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Bayo 2 got 2 more comgnet preorders today (9/16). It's saved =P.... so 19 for Bayo 2, Fatal still at 22. I think MH4U got like another 80 o_O... still insane.
 

Jamix012

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Jun 6, 2012
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So will Wii U rise, hold, or drop this week?
Massive rise. 1 million people buy Smash 3DS over the weekend. After an hour of playing, they know they need more. They all rush out to buy Wii Us in preparation for console Smash. Wii U sells over 1 million next week.

(probably going to got with #Teammarginaldrop on this one)
 

metalslimer

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Jun 9, 2012
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Sales will probably be lower overall but 3DS will still be able to sell 10 million.
Eh....doubt it. I don't think the n3DS can do much for the system in the west. It'll probably ship 10 million though.
 

ZSaberLink

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Jul 29, 2010
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Bayo 2 preorders 4 days before launch - 19

Bayo 1 sales week of launch:
Bayonetta PS3 had 410 orders
Bayonetta 360 had 126

so yeh.....
 

LOCK

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Jun 26, 2006
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In a Dream
I think Smash was used to get rid of the older 3DS models still in stock.

Time will tell come the n3DS launch.

I think Bayo 2 will perform a DKCRTF.
 

Pennywise83

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Oct 10, 2007
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So, there's a Haikyuu game coming to 3DS on Sept. 25th, published by Bandai Namco. I don't know how much popular the manga and the anime are (I guess a bit), but it's doing quite well on Comgnet, with 99 points (80 points for the special edition and 19 points for the normal edition); it's due in more than one week so it might increase even more.

How much could it sell?

 

zeromcd73

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Mar 21, 2014
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So, there's a Haikyuu game coming to 3DS on Sept. 25th, published by Bandai Namco. I don't know how much popular the manga and the anime are (I guess a bit), but it's doing quite well on Comgnet, with 99 points (80 points for the special edition and 19 points for the normal edition); it's due in more than one week so it might increase even more.

How much could it sell?

Haikyuu!! is super popular, especially since its anime began airing. The manga volumes do over 600k per volume, and the first Blu-ray/DVD was the second best selling last season doing 32k. It also sells truckloads of merchandise and has a huge female following.
 

michaelius

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Jan 5, 2012
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I feel they have a couple issues there.

1.) The system is doing really poorly now. It just hit 91K in NPD.
2.) The New 3DS is out notably later, so there's a question of how many people would still be notably interested in adding better controls for a game they've been playing for 3-6 months already (assuming they're even still playing Smash by then).
3.) The announced future line-up looks really, really thin for the 3DS, especially in terms of notable sellers in the West releasing in 2015.
4) Upgrade is not substantial enough to justify buying it

It feels like wasted opportunity - Nintendo could have made a switch to Iphone/Android model where new improved hardware remains compatible with all previous software while offering visible performance jump and OS improvements.

Instead they are releasing - 3DS features that should have been included from day 1 edition which will split userbase for marginal improvements.

Anyway - I think PS4 will be >20k due to Destiny bundle and One will be in 5-6k range.
 

Pennywise83

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Oct 10, 2007
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Haikyuu!! is super popular, especially since its anime began airing. The manga volumes do over 600k per volume, and the first Blu-ray/DVD was the second best selling last season doing 32k. It also sells truckloads of merchandise and has a huge female following.
Cool! That means another 3DS hit no one talked about :p
 

Pennywise83

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Oct 10, 2007
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I guess it depends on how you define hit? It's likely a ~100k game like many other popular anime games. Good enough for what it is, but what exactly are you expecting?
I don't know how much it will sell, that's why I was asking; personally, 100k units would be a nice result. No one talked about that, even though it's doing well on preorders watch (for what it is) :)
 

hongcha

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Aug 7, 2011
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Haikyuu is just a visual novel based on an anime, with some volleyball segments. Will probably sell 30-50k. It is #67 on amazon jp now, with a week to go.
 

duckroll

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I don't know how much it will sell, that's why I was asking; personally, 100k units would be a nice result. No one talked about that, even though it's doing well on preorders watch (for what it is) :)
For a comparison how well was Kuroko's Basketball 3DS doing in Feb? They're very similar - popular sports anime with female audiences, cheap visual novel game, 3DS.
 

duckroll

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It did 74,808 units as of June 29th, with 1,333 units on the eShop. Quite close to the PSP entry, which sold 78,587 units.
No I mean COMG. Since you were getting so excited over the pre-order number. :p

I'm just pointing out why no one talks about these games. They're pretty much irrelevant.
 

Pennywise83

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Oct 10, 2007
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No I mean COMG. Since you were getting so excited over the pre-order number. :p

I'm just pointing out why no one talks about these games. They're pretty much irrelevant.
I'm not excited about pre-order numbers; I just saw it got many points and was wondering how much it will sell, since no one talked about this very game. It's a sales thread, after all. And about the degree of irrelevance... Games like Bayonetta 2 or Bullet Girls might be more irrelevant (sales-wise). I wanted only to bring some different game on the discussion. I hope being luckier next time.

Haikyuu!! is super popular, especially since its anime began airing. The manga volumes do over 600k per volume, and the first Blu-ray/DVD was the second best selling last season doing 32k. It also sells truckloads of merchandise and has a huge female following.
Thanks! I didn't know it was so popular. I guess 3DS might become a quite popular platform for anime tie-ins.
 

duckroll

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Wow, Kuroko did 75k. Haikyuu should sell similarly then, I would guess.
That's why I said ~100k. Might not hit that, but it'll be around that region I think.

Cool! That means another 3DS hit no one talked about :p
Thanks! I didn't know it was so popular. I guess 3DS might become a quite popular platform for anime tie-ins.
You're so excited you're starting to reply to the same stuff multiple times! :)