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bloodborne was about 45k so it is not that unrealistic but yeah i would think 50k digital is probably the high bar. hope it doesn't have the usual jrpg drop next week!
Bundles are not included in the P5 number?
Kenzodielocke
Banned
Persona games have long legs, right ?
Only 5 more months..........................
Only 5 more months..........................
The Last One
Member
The true winner:
15./17. [PS4] Grand Theft Auto V [New Price Edition] <ACT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) {2015.10.08} (¥4.990) - 4.180 / 160.600 (+54%)
15./17. [PS4] Grand Theft Auto V [New Price Edition] <ACT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) {2015.10.08} (¥4.990) - 4.180 / 160.600 (+54%)
For a few weeks, but also almost all single player JRPGs have bad legs after that. The used market will eat it up.
1st Course
Member
btw this has to be the Wii U lowest week in a long time, no?
Small typo here ?
EDIT : Seems like 4gamer display the same thing, so MC's typo then maybe lol ?
Expected result for P5, slightly less than I predicted mostly because of the PS3 SKU, the PS4 slim probably helped.
The drop off will be pretty big. The PS4 version is expected to sell under 50k in the second week.
Not really.
DarkLordMalik
Member
Persona 5 is a JRPG so don't expect a higher digital attach rate. I assume around 30k-40k digitally.
Those Persona numbers including bundle.
Persona 5 had a great debut. Better than Tales confirmed
PS4 sold a bit lower than what I expected. I hoped it cracked 100k.
To be fair, P5 came out with the cheaper model PS4 and everyone loved P4. While Berseria came out without any bundle and everyone hated Zestiria. I hoped P5 would have reached 500k first week though...
Persona 4 sold 294,214 lifetime? That's super niche!
wapplew
Member
Could've reach 500k if they didn't announced Chinese localization.
A lot More people will import.
DriftingSpirit
Member
Cool. The personacentral site didn't list the portable titles. Any idea on its LTD?
Some math. After three week of supply/news related drops in sales: 5K, 1K, and <1K respectively, we bounce to 96K.
Baseline was circa 18-20K, so we had pent up denand of ~55-60K. It is reasonable to expect most of that upfront on the restock week, so we have an opening with P5 at around ~35-40K on top of the pent-up demand. You can swing that towards 50K if you want to say that not all pent up demand was met this week.
So next week I'd say something like ~35-40K would be a reasonable expectation.
Baseline was circa 18-20K, so we had pent up denand of ~55-60K. It is reasonable to expect most of that upfront on the restock week, so we have an opening with P5 at around ~35-40K on top of the pent-up demand. You can swing that towards 50K if you want to say that not all pent up demand was met this week.
So next week I'd say something like ~35-40K would be a reasonable expectation.
Tales always sold much higher than Persona game, but the latest Tales of game (Berseria) sold lower than Persona 5.
Goes to show you the Zestiria effect.
mrmickfran
Member
I seriously think people expecting Persona to ship over 500k in the first week have no idea how retail works. It's simply unrealistic. Atlus is not big enough a publishing brand and it would be too great a leap. 300k+ is in fact the most optimistic possible numbers they could have shipped into the retail channel given how well they have built up the brand and created demand for it.
01./00. [PS3] Tales of Xillia # <RPG> (Bandai Namco) {2011.09.08} (¥8.379) - 525.605 / NEW <87,12%>
01./00. [PS3] Tales of Xillia 2 <RPG> (Bandai Namco Games) {2012.11.01} (¥8.380) - 364.439 / NEW <78,09%>
01./00. [PS3] Tales of Zestiria <RPG> (Bandai Namco Games) {2015.01.22} (¥8.715) - 340.891 / NEW <89,52%>
01./00. [PS4] Tales of Berseria <RPG> (Bandai Namco Games) {2016.08.18} (¥8.200) - 173.537 / NEW
02./00. [PS3] Tales of Berseria <RPG> (Bandai Namco Games) {2016.08.18} (¥8.200) - 76.186 / NEW
Total: 249.723
DarkLordMalik
Member
Sounds about right. Should surpass Wii U the week after next.
jmaine_ph
Member
Yea I'm trying to find LTD now.
Some Nobody
Junior Member
Man, Zestiria ruined that game didnt it? There's a small 20k drop from Xillia 2 to Zestiria, then you get to Berseria and it's like "lol can't break 300k" . Shame too.
KillerMan91
Member
Was guessing around 100k for Slim so pretty close. Also GTA V really has pretty amazing legs for PS homeconsole title. Can't remember last release even on PS3 with same kind of legs. It of course helps that nowadays you don't have to sell as much to break to top 20 as some years ago.
DarkLordMalik
Member
During the peak of the series popularity.
Curious how the next game will do considering it will either be PS4 exclusive or PS4/NX in Japan, coming off the back of the super positive reception of Berseria, and how continually fucked the Japanese industry is in in 2017/18
since i played persona ep on ps1 i knew it was something special but also it was super niche i never imagined it would continue! p4g was an amazing journey with a life like cast, i am so hungry for p5 now, i hope it sells really good in west. btw where the hell is kazuma kaneko lol
These are the numbers as of January 3rd 2016
742./144. [PSV] Persona 4: Golden <RPG> (Atlus) {2012.06.14} (¥6.980) - 2.953 / 332.003 (-95%) (137.076 <84,11%>)
169./000. [PSV] Persona 4: Golden [PlayStation Vita the Best] <RPG> (Atlus) {2015.02.05} (¥3.980) - 39.230 / NEW (3.574 <48,92%>)
So around 371k
From this thread:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1277070
mrmickfran
Member
Yeah, I just saw Berseria's numbers, holy shit.
By the end of 2014:
144. [PSV] Persona 4: Golden <RPG> (Atlus) {2012.06.14} (¥7.329) - 54.140 / 329.050 (137.076 <84,11%>)
Edit: Oh, I see there are 2015 numbers too. Nvm.
what is releasing on PS4 next week to keep it at 35 - 40k?
Much appreciated. P4G actually did really well for a port. It's a shame P5 will not get one unless they gut it like P3P and even then I'm not so sure.
Renormalization takes time. Price cuts have a tail before they relax to a new baseline.
jmaine_ph
Member
Thank you.
RampagingSoul
Member
Not really. Most, if not all, single player RPGs are very front loaded in Japan. First week sales are usually the best you get far as sale weeks go.
And_Gignac
Member
I was hoping for a bigger numbers for Persona, but I can see its growth as a franchise to be more impactful in the west.