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Media Create Sales: Week 37, 2016 (Sep 12 - Sep 18)

barybll

Banned
Yeah 400k should be doable considering P4 sold 212k first week and 294k LTD.
Proportionally, P5 should reach 469k LTD if it maintains the same pattern but I doubt it.
But even then, 469k won't be a huge growth over the first game (391k). Only 78k more.

Are you really using a 20 years old game as base for growth?
Do you know anything about the story of the franchise?
 

Sterok

Member
Serious question,where did some people get the idea that Persona was some huge seller and among the strongest franchises in Japan? There have been plenty of Persona games that have shown the series's performance, and Atlus is known to be fairly niche overall.
 

daveo42

Banned
Decent sales of P5 on PS3, but man...I kind of wish they had dropped it in favor of a better looking PS4 game. Those numbers on the PS4 version speak for itself.
 

duckroll

Member
I just don't see the drop off for the first week being that big comapre to FFXIII.
Plus there is still time for marketing to kick in .

Why wouldn't you? Interest in general does seem much lower, especially in Japan. I think success stories like Persona 5 distort expectations of the games which represent the ceiling. I've talked about this before in many previous MC threads, but the trend we're seeing with Japanese console game sales post-FFXIII was that the floor started to rise, while the ceiling continued to fall. Which is to say, as the PS3 recovered from the disastrous early days, games which sell at the low end or the mid range saw their sales increasing again. So we saw that it became possible for popular games to sell 500k, then 600k, and "big hits" started selling up to 800-900k even. But yet all this time, nothing on the PS3 ever managed to break the 1 million barrier again with a single release. FFXIII remains the only game in Japan to have ever sold over 1 million copies on the PS3 with a single release. That means the ceiling dropped.

The success the PS3 had in recovering the console market didn't translate naturally to the PS4 either. It took a long time for the PS4 to become relevant in Japan, and it still struggles to this day. Persona 5 is a great success for Atlus, but let's not forget, it's not 336k in PS4 sales. 21% of the first week sales went to the PS3 release - a dead platform. Stuff like this just don't indicate a very healthy market that is full steam ahead in embracing the current consoles as must haves. These are factors which will be obstacles to the success of a game like FFXV.
 

Mory Dunz

Member
After much delay, Splatoon vs Persona can't officially be closed.

As can PS4 vs Wii U. Well, soon...


What's next, Splatoon vs FFXV?
 

sense

Member
i think we are seeing more and more that having a ps3 version is not really essential and that japan devs can at least stop being scared to drop it. saying that 72k is not a number to scoff at but about half of those COULD have picked up a ps4 to play the game.
 
Why wouldn't you? Interest in general does seem much lower, especially in Japan. I think success stories like Persona 5 distort expectations of the games which represent the ceiling. I've talked about this before in many previous MC threads, but the trend we're seeing with Japanese console game sales post-FFXIII was that the floor started to rise, while the ceiling continued to fall. Which is to say, as the PS3 recovered from the disastrous early days, games which sell at the low end or the mid range saw their sales increasing again. So we saw that it became possible for popular games to sell 500k, then 600k, and "big hits" started selling up to 800-900k even. But yet all this time, nothing on the PS3 ever managed to break the 1 million barrier again with a single release. FFXIII remains the only game in Japan to have ever sold over 1 million copies on the PS3 with a single release. That means the ceiling dropped.

The success the PS3 had in recovering the console market didn't translate naturally to the PS4 either. It took a long time for the PS4 to become relevant in Japan, and it still struggles to this day. Persona 5 is a great success for Atlus, but let's not forget, it's not 336k in PS4 sales. 21% of the first week sales went to the PS3 release - a dead platform. Stuff like this just don't indicate a very healthy market that is full steam ahead in embracing the current consoles as must haves. These are factors which will be obstacles to the success of a game like FFXV.

I see that effecting the LTD more than the first week sales.
I expect a drop off from the first week comapre to FFXIII .
Just not as big as i see some people are saying .
 

Ridley327

Member
Serious question,where did some people get the idea that Persona was some huge seller and among the strongest franchises in Japan? There have been plenty of Persona games that have shown the series's performance, and Atlus is known to be fairly niche overall.

I don't think it's more complex than a case of projection inside an echo chamber. It's a growing franchise, but it's very much on the slow and steady end of the spectrum. I will say it does deserve credit for continually growing, when there have been plenty of series that used to sell around the same level (Tales, Disgaea) that have been shedding their audiences for a little while now.
 
Pro Evolution Soccer 2016

Media Create
PS4 66,037
PS3 34,502
= 100,539

Famitsu
PS4 49 690
PS3 27,674
=77,364

Pretty big difference between trackers.
 
I know those are great #s for Persona but my expectations were high so 300k feels a little uneventful.

I guess Persona is more ocular than ever but it's just matching the likes of Tales Of.

PS4 on the other hand did really well.
 

cheesekao

Member
I don't think it's more complex than a case of projection inside an echo chamber. It's a growing franchise, but it's very much on the slow and steady end of the spectrum. I will say it does deserve credit for continually growing, when there have been plenty of series that used to sell around the same level (Tales, Disgaea) that have been shedding their audiences for a little while now.
Are the two comparable since Tale's decline is due to quality whereas Disgaea's decline in Japan is due to low userbase?
 

duckroll

Member
I see that effecting the LTD more than the first week sales.
I expect a drop off from the first week comapre to FFXIII .
Just not as big as i see some people are saying .

First week sales don't pop out of nowhere, it is a representative portion of the LTD. If the ceiling has fallen such that it becomes very difficult to sell over a million copies of a console game, all sales will be affected.

FFXIII's FW->LTD isn't even impressive. It sold 1.5 million in the first week, and the LTD was only 1.9 million. If we shave the LTD down to 1.5 million or less, don't you see how the FW could struggle to hit a million?
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
I know those are great #s for Persona but my expectations were high so 300k feels a little uneventful.

I guess Persona is more ocular than ever but it's just matching the likes of Tales Of.

PS4 on the other hand did really well.
I think there's a bit of a disconnect between the series' popularity and its popularity in GAF that might be skewing perceptions.

I've seen threads where people expect the game to move 3-5+ million copies worldwide which is absolutely bonkers.
 

Hellraider

Member
i think we are seeing more and more that having a ps3 version is not really essential and that japan devs can at least stop being scared to drop it. saying that 72k is not a number to scoff at but about half of those COULD have picked up a ps4 to play the game.

72k is a really big number actually. 21% is also a hefty percentage. If anything the Persona 5 example does the opposite. It shows a painfully slow transition to the next generation and shows that a game of this caliber released in late 2016 had a worthwhile PS3 version.

There is also the problem where we can pretty safely assume that most PS4 owners have a PS3 which would translate in a lot more lost sales compared to the transferred ones.I'm not suprised but I'm still extremely disappointed.
 
First week sales don't pop out of nowhere, it is a representative portion of the LTD. If the ceiling has fallen such that it becomes very difficult to sell over a million copies of a console game, all sales will be affected.

FFXIII's FW->LTD isn't even impressive. It sold 1.5 million in the first week, and the LTD was only 1.9 million. If we shave the LTD down to 1.5 million or less, don't you see how the FW could struggle to hit a million?

I then have to ask why people expect such a huge drop off for the first week .
Is it because there seem to be no hype for FFXV in Japan ?
It's not like i saying FFXIII numbers were impressive or FFXV numbers will be .
 

sense

Member
72k is a really big number actually. 21% is also a hefty percentage. If anything the Persona 5 example does the opposite. It shows a painfully slow transition to the next generation and shows that a game of this caliber released in late 2016 had a worthwhile PS3 version.

There is also the problem where we can pretty safely assume that most PS4 owners have a PS3 which would translate in a lot more lost sales compared to the transferred ones.I'm not suprised but I'm still extremely disappointed.

like i said,72k is not a small number but dropping it could have resulted in more people picking up the ps4 version with console. you don't think atleast 30-35k of that 72k could have picked up the ps4 and game? there is also the benefit of not having to develop for the console and less dev expenses.

persona 5 is a peculiar case anyways since the game was in development for ps3 for a long time so they might as well have released it.
 

duckroll

Member
I then have to ask why people expect such a huge drop off for the first week .
Is it because there seem to be no hype for FFXV in Japan ?
It's not like i saying FFXIII were impressive or FFXV numbers will be .

I think it is generally perceived that there is less interest and less excitement for FFXV in Japan than there was for FFXIII.

We can also do some comparisons to see how the series has performed when jumping platforms. It hasn't been kind.

PS1:
FFVII - 3.27m
FFVIII - 3.5m
FFIX - 2.7m

PS2:
FFX - 2.32m
FFX-2 - 1.96m
FFXII - 2.25m

PS3:
FFXIII - 1.9m
FFXIII-2 - 841k
LRFFXIII - 421k

PS4:
FFXV - ?????
 

wmlk

Member
Great numbers. I was expecting 500K-600K. I feel like the marketing for the past few months haven't been anywhere near as great as before (outside of the in-store advertising). Felt like they were scraping the bottom of the barrel since they'd already revealed everything.

Think this'll have some legs, though. Still sticking with P5 breaking 1 million before FFXV! Makes it easier with an additional two months lol.
 

Ōkami

Member
PlayStation Store Rakings (Sep 12 - Sep 18)

PS4
01/01. Battlefield 4 (Electronic Arts) – {22/02/2014} (¥3.024)
02/NEW. Persona 5 20th Anniversary PS Store Special Edition (Atlus) – {15/09/2016} (¥12.800)
03/NEW. Dead Rising Triple Pack (Capcom) – {13/09/2016} (¥???)
04/03. The Tomorrow Children (SIE) – {07/09/2016} (¥2.700)
05/02. Resident Evil 4 (Capcom) – {30/08/2016} (¥2.800)
06/04. Salt and Sanctuary (Ska Studios) – {18/08/2016} (¥1.780)
07/00. God of War III Remastered (76% OFF) (SCE) – {16/07/2015} (¥999)
08/00. Watch Dogs (72% OFF) (Ubisoft) – {26/06/2014} (¥999)
09/05. Tokyo Xanadu eX+ (Nihon Falcom) – {08/09/2016} (¥5.980)
10/06. Evolve Ultimate Edition (33% OFF) (Take Two Interactive Japan) – {23/02/2016} (¥2.532)
11/07. Minecraft: PlayStation 4 Edition (SCE) – {25/12/2014} (¥2.592)
12/NEW. Winning Eleven 2017 (Konami) – {15/09/2016} (¥8.208)
13/09. Resident Evil 6 (Capcom) – {29/03/2016} (¥2.800)
14/00. Overwatch (Square Enix) – {24/05/2016} (¥8.424)
15/10. Resident Evil 5 (Capcom) – {28/06/2016} (¥2.800)
16/00. Killzone: Shadow Fall (84% OFF) (SCE) – {22/02/2014} (¥999)
17/NEW. Dead Rising 2: Off the Record (Capcom) – {13/09/2016} (¥1.990)
18/00. Watch Dogs Complete Edition (56% OFF) (Ubisoft) – {26/06/2014} (¥1.999)
19/00. Earth Defense Force 4.1: Shadow of New Despair (25% OFF) (D3 Publisher) – {02/04/2015} (¥5.235)
20/11. Hatsune Miku: Project Diva - Future Tone (SEGA) – {23/06/2016} (¥8.424)

Vita
01/01. Metal Gear Solid 3 HD Edition (Konami) – {17/07/2012} (¥1.018)
02/03. Sword Art Online: Hollow Fragment (Bandai Namco) – {24/04/2014} (¥1.728)
03/04. Minecraft: PlayStation Vita Edition (SCE) – {29/10/2014} (¥2.592)
04/05. Romancing SaGa 2 (Square Enix) – {24/03/2016} (¥2.200)
05/02. Metal Gear Solid 2 HD Edition (Konami) – {17/07/2012} (¥1.018)
06/06. Ys VIII: Lacrimosa of Dana (Nihon Falcom) – {21/07/2016} (¥6.200)
07/11. Hot Shots Golf: World Invitational (PlayStation Vita the Best) (25% OFF) (SIE) – {10/10/2013} (¥1.782)
08/08. Coven and Labyrinth of Refrain (Nippon Ichi) – {23/06/2016} (¥5.143)
09/00. Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball 2016 (Konami) – {28/04/2016} (¥7.538)
10/07. Geten no Hana with Yume Akarai – Aizouban (Koei Tecmo) – {08/09/2016} (¥6.610)
11/09. Dariusburst Chronicles Saviours (30% OFF) (Kadokawa) – {15/01/2016} (¥3.680)
12/15. Persona 4: Golden (PlayStation Vita the Best) (Atlus) – {05/02/2015} (¥3.980)
13/15. Adventures of Mana (15% OFF) (Square Enix) – {04/02/2016} (¥1.190)
14/16. Atelier Shallie Plus: Alchemists of the Dusk Sea (20% OFF) (Koei Tecmo) – {03/03/2016} (¥4.443)
15/17. Terraria (Spike Chunsoft) – {06/02/2014} (¥2.057)
16/13. Touhou Genso Wanderer (Mediaescape) – {25/06/2015} (¥3.240)
17/18. Danganronpa 1-2 Reload (Spike Chunsoft) – {10/10/2013} (¥4.834)
18/14. New Interpretation Stranger of Sword City (Experience) – {21/07/2016} (¥4.104)
19/19. Toukiden 2 (Koei Tecmo) – {28/07/2016} (¥6.610)
20/20. Call of Duty: Black Ops - Declassified (Square Enix) – {20/12/2012} (¥3.240)

PS3
01/00. Battlefield 4 (Electronic Arts) – {22/02/2014} (¥3.024)
02/NEW. Persona 5 20th Anniversary PS Store Special Edition (Atlus) – {15/09/2016} (¥12.800)
03/00. Resident Evil 4 (60% OFF) (Capcom) – {30/08/2016} (¥400)
04/00. Minecraft: PlayStation 3 Edition (Mojang) – {24/06/2014} (¥2.592)
05/NEW. Winning Eleven 2017 (Konami) – {15/09/2016} (¥7.128)
06/00. Hot Shots Golf: World Invitational (PlayStation Vita the Best) (25% OFF) (SIE) – {10/10/2013} (¥1.782)
07/00. Resident Evil 5: Gold Edition (60% OFF) (Capcom) – {29/03/2012} (¥400)
08/00. Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater HD Edition (Konami) – {08/12/2011} (¥1.996)
09/00. Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty HD Edition (Konami) – {08/12/2011} (¥1.996)
10/00. Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots [PlayStation 3 The Best] – {17/12/2014} (¥2.980)
11/00. Metal Gear Solid: Peace Walker HD Edition (Konami) – {08/12/2011} (¥1.996)
12/00. Tales of Berseria (Bandai Namco) – {18/08/2016} (¥8.856)
13/00. Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball 2016 (Konami) – {28/04/2016} (¥7.538)
14/00. Final Fantasy XIII-2 (30% OFF) (Square Enix) – {16/07/2013} (¥2.116)
15/00. Goat Simulator (Double Eleven) – {10/07/2015} (¥1.000)
16/00. Resident Evil 6 [PlayStation 3 The Best] (60% OFF) (Capcom) – {06/03/2014} (¥1.209)
17/00. The Idolm@ster: One for All [PlayStation 3 The Best] (25% OFF) (Bandai Namco) – {29/01/2015} (¥2.268)
18/00. The ICO & Shadow of the Colossus Collection (25% OFF) (SCE) – {31/01/2012} (¥4.551)
19/00. Battlefield: Hardline (Electronic Arts) – {19/03/2015} (¥1.944)
20/00. Ghost Recon: Future Soldier (Ubisoft) – {28/11/2013} (¥1.728)
 
I think it is generally perceived that there is less interest and less excitement for FFXV in Japan than there was for FFXIII.

We can also do some comparisons to see how the series has performed when jumping platforms. It hasn't been kind.

PS1:
FFVII - 3.27m
FFVIII - 3.5m
FFIX - 2.7m

PS2:
FFX - 2.32m
FFX-2 - 1.96m
FFXII - 2.25m

PS3:
FFXIII - 1.9m
FFXIII-2 - 841k
LRFFXIII - 421k

PS4:
FFXV - ?????

Interesting .
Time will tell but i guess it comes down to how much of the core FF base it left and how big it is .
 

small44

Member
I think it is generally perceived that there is less interest and less excitement for FFXV in Japan than there was for FFXIII.

We can also do some comparisons to see how the series has performed when jumping platforms. It hasn't been kind.

PS1:
FFVII - 3.27m
FFVIII - 3.5m
FFIX - 2.7m

PS2:
FFX - 2.32m
FFX-2 - 1.96m
FFXII - 2.25m

PS3:
FFXIII - 1.9m
FFXIII-2 - 841k
LRFFXIII - 421k

PS4:
FFXV - ?????

I guess FFXIII games hurt the serie too much.
I hate how they changed the game look of Final versus after they changed the title name,the original trailer was very dark.
 

Fisico

Member
I will say it does deserve credit for continually growing, when there have been plenty of series that used to sell around the same level (Tales, Disgaea) that have been shedding their audiences for a little while now.

Not sure if you're saying that Tales and Disgaea used to sell at the same level, they never did, or that they both lost their audience the same way which is also false as Disgaea plummeted hard from one entry to another and is probably a dead IP while Tales just peaked with one entry and had a slow decline afterwards and is still selling fine.
 

kswiston

Member
I think it is generally perceived that there is less interest and less excitement for FFXV in Japan than there was for FFXIII.

We can also do some comparisons to see how the series has performed when jumping platforms. It hasn't been kind.

PS1:
FFVII - 3.27m
FFVIII - 3.5m
FFIX - 2.7m

PS2:
FFX - 2.32m
FFX-2 - 1.96m
FFXII - 2.25m

PS3:
FFXIII - 1.9m
FFXIII-2 - 841k
LRFFXIII - 421k

PS4:
FFXV - ?????

Didn't FF7 and FFX do pretty crazy budget and international rerelease numbers? Something that FFXIII didnt do.
 

duckroll

Member
I guess FFXIII games hurt the serie too much.
I hate how they changed the game look of Final versus after they changed the title name,the original trailer was very dark.

I don't feel that is the main factor. I reckon the majority of gamers, especially in a smaller market like Japan, will understand that each numbered FF is a unique entry that stands alone and offers a new experience. I think the largest factor contributing to FF's decline is that they are simply taking too long to make each new entry, and this results in a lot of disadvantages. Firstly it means that they no longer have a strong pulse on what their userbase really wants. There is no proper feedback loop because the gap between entries are so many years apart. It also means that in the long years, fans which lose interest in the franchise are not replaced with new younger fans, since there is nothing substantial for attract new fans as a gateway.

Didn't FF7 and FFX do pretty crazy budget and international rerelease numbers? Something that FFXIII didnt do.

None of those numbers include re-releases or budget releases. I'm simply comparing initial releases to show the drop off in core interest each time it moves to a new platform, because it is consistent with how the Japanese console market has been shrinking with each console generation.
 
I don't feel that is the main factor. I reckon the majority of gamers, especially in a smaller market like Japan, will understand that each numbered FF is a unique entry that stands alone and offers a new experience. I think the largest factor contributing to FF's decline is that they are simply taking too long to make each new entry, and this results in a lot of disadvantages. Firstly it means that they no longer have a strong pulse on what their userbase really wants. There is no proper feedback loop because the gap between entries are so many years apart. It also means that in the long years, fans which lose interest in the franchise are not replaced with new younger fans, since there is nothing substantial for attract new fans as a gateway.

I agree with this .

None of those numbers include re-releases or budget releases. I'm simply comparing initial releases to show the drop off in core interest each time it moves to a new platform, because it is consistent with how the Japanese console market has been shrinking with each console generation.

Not for PS1 to PS2 .
I think that also show how much people leaving the series .
Even if we don't bother with the platform .
So FF losing casual \core interest seem to be just as big problem if not more so than the platform .
 

Sterok

Member
I don't feel that is the main factor. I reckon the majority of gamers, especially in a smaller market like Japan, will understand that each numbered FF is a unique entry that stands alone and offers a new experience. I think the largest factor contributing to FF's decline is that they are simply taking too long to make each new entry, and this results in a lot of disadvantages. Firstly it means that they no longer have a strong pulse on what their userbase really wants. There is no proper feedback loop because the gap between entries are so many years apart. It also means that in the long years, fans which lose interest in the franchise are not replaced with new younger fans, since there is nothing substantial for attract new fans as a gateway.

Long wait worked out for Persona, though of course the answer would be that Atlus is better at brand management than Square. So where does that leave Dragon Quest? By the time XI releases it will have been about 8 years since IX, and I don't think many people are expecting a significant decline or anything. Is it a brand Square managed better, or does the DQ's higher consistency help lessen the impact of long waits?
 
Great numbers. I was expecting 500K-600K. I feel like the marketing for the past few months haven't been anywhere near as great as before (outside of the in-store advertising). Felt like they were scraping the bottom of the barrel since they'd already revealed everything.

Think this'll have some legs, though. Still sticking with P5 breaking 1 million before FFXV! Makes it easier with an additional two months lol.
Uh, your expectations for this stuff seems...off.
 
Persona 5 nearly outselling its prequels in its first week is nice to see. Hope it has the legs to get to 600k LTD but 500k LTD seems more reasonable. Now to see how much the franchise has grown in the West.

I can guarantee there will be a P5 FES DLC expansion and retail release for PS4 either next year or after.

PS4 numbers nearly at 100k is good.
 
Time to move on from PS3 Japan.

uYwVsAJ.gif


Never!
 

Takao

Banned
Unless they put it on the Vita of course since it's not exactly impossible if they do a P3P like I said.

Atlus Japan has never been a big Vita supporter. I don't see why that would change now.

When there's a portable version of Persona 5, I fully expect it to be on NX.
 
Think this'll have some legs, though. Still sticking with P5 breaking 1 million before FFXV! Makes it easier with an additional two months lol.

Completely impossible unless XV gets delayed, because it's a global release.

Persona 5's only chance at a million is from the worldwide sales, which means February at the earliest (and even then, a million worldwide is not a guarantee).

Obviously I doubt any sane person could ever expect Persona 5 to sell a million in Japan.
 

Square2015

Member
I think it is generally perceived that there is less interest and less excitement for FFXV in Japan than there was for FFXIII.

We can also do some comparisons to see how the series has performed when jumping platforms. It hasn't been kind.

PS1:
FFVII - 3.27m
FFVIII - 3.5m
FFIX - 2.7m

PS2:
FFX - 2.32m
FFX-2 - 1.96m
FFXII - 2.25m

PS3:
FFXIII - 1.9m
FFXIII-2 - 841k
LRFFXIII - 421k

PS4:
FFXV - ?????
PS sales slope as first Final Fantasy release drops:
WdPvDNW.png

PS4 about where PS3 was. The PS3 slim (and price drop) were released as the lead up to FFXIII's release, looks like Sony's doing the same for FFXV. (Will update PS4 for the week when Dengeki HW data released)
 

Ōkami

Member
Famitsu retail + digital, all rereleases combined. Best selling PS4 games.

  1. Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain: 497.226
  2. Knack: 401.579
  3. Dark Souls III: 389.257
  4. Call of Duty: Black Ops III: 384.143
  5. Dragon Quest Heroes: 360.698
  6. Minecraft: PlayStation 4 Edition: 337.236
  7. Grand Theft Auto V: 336.640
  8. Dragon Quest Heroes II: 308.154
  9. Bloodborne: 278.272
  10. Persona 5: 268.320
Best selling games of the year so far, just retail (Jan 4 - Sep 18)

  1. [3DS] Yo-Kai Watch 3: Sushi / Tempura: 1.181.714
  2. [3DS] Dragon Quest Monsters: Joker 3: 609.603
  3. [3DS] Yo-Kai Sangokushi: 545.673
  4. [3DS] Kirby: Planet Robobot: 412.188
  5. [PS4] Dark Souls III: 312.931
  6. [PSV] Dragon Quest Builders: 287.521
  7. [WIU] Splatoon: 279.375
  8. [PS4] Persona 5: 268.320
  9. [PS4] Dragon Quest Heroes II: 266.761
  10. [3DS] Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney - Spirit of Justice: 258.757

Persona 5 has the third biggest opening week on PS4, behind Knack and Metal Gear.
 
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