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Sales-Age Media Create Sales: Week 37, 2017 (Sep 11 - Sep 17)

Kresnik258

Member
Jan 25, 2014
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Given what an absolute technical disaster Atelier Firis was at launch (on both PS4 & Vita) combined with the fact that Lydie & Suelle has an extra platform this time, that does... not bode well at all.

That said, I'd be surprised if it hits that release date. When's the last time a Gust game wasn't delayed?
 

Oregano

Member
Mar 13, 2013
12,412
3
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Even though it's sure to bomb anyway that's a good week to be releasing a game on Switch. The user base should be exploding at that point.
 

Principate

Saint Titanfall
Dec 17, 2011
16,592
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Latest digital sales estimate from Famitsu (August)

DQXI 3DS: 32k
DQXI PS4: 11k
Undertale PS4: 30k
Undertale PSV: 15k
DQX (PS4, I assume?) 21k for retail, 18k for digital
DQII and III (PS4): 15k for both

http://ryokutya2089.com/archives/4067
Wow that's some really poor digital sales for DQ ps4. I guess digital saving destiny in Japan is very unlikely.

Edit: It being the wrong way around makes a lot more sense.
 

Zedark

Member
Feb 22, 2016
5,220
0
290
Latest digital sales estimate from Famitsu (August)

DQXI 3DS: 32k
DQXI PS4: 11k
Huh? That's strikes me as very odd. Aren't 3DS digital sales said to be significantly lower than non-Nintendo systems? 11k for PS4 seems ridiculously low. Edit: Ah, these are turned around. Makes more sense, then.
 

fortunato

Banned
Jun 14, 2017
284
0
0
Wow that's some really poor digital sales for DQ ps4. I guess digital saving destiny in Japan is very unlikely.
These are the sales from the second month (well, in July Dragon Quest XI only had one week of tracking, in fact about 3 days). Nevertheless, it's a pretty huge drop, while 3DS version is selling better than expected.
 

Orgen

Member
Aug 4, 2005
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Reki

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Apr 1, 2016
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Source: http://gematsu.com/2017/09/interview-gal-gun-2-takuya-aizu-masanori-ito-matt-papa-tgs-2017#tezcDJrSQ41QQfqv.99

So that does in fact put our Switch Japanese UE4 game list at:
1.) Yoshi
2.) SMT
3.) Gal Gun 2
4.) Octopath
5.) Bloodstained
6.) Tiny Metal
7.) No More Heroes

Maybe:
8.) Dragon Quest XI

9-20.) Unknown
Could Bamco move the Tales of series to UE4? Other teams are already using it in projects like AC7 and Code Vein.

I'm expecting a port/remaster to be the Switch title btw, just thinking about the next installments here.
 
There will be more than 20 UE4 games when some of the initial 20 get announced (hopefully next year at the latest).
Of course. This is more about tracking early adoption, since these were all titles that were basically in development when the system came out.

Could Bamco move the Tales of series to UE4? Other teams are already using it in projects like AC7 and Code Vein.

I'm expecting a port/remaster to be the Switch title btw, just thinking about the next installments here.
On the one hand, I think that would help the franchise quite a bit, and Namco has been investing more money in their series lately than they normally have been.

On the other hand, it's really not clear that Namco has any actual confidence in Tales to be willing to part with anything but the bare minimum budget.
 

vareon

Member
Feb 5, 2007
12,797
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0
Not anywhere
There will be more than 20 UE4 games when some of the initial 20 get announced (hopefully next year at the latest).
Yeah, there might be some UE4 games greenlighted and announced before what was in the original 20 was even announced. Are we just keep counting until 20?
 
Jul 1, 2017
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Yeah, there might be some UE4 games greenlighted and announced before what was in the original 20 was even announced. Are we just keep counting until 20?
Well,Epic Games Japan did say that there were more than 20 games in development for the switch at that time
 

Principate

Saint Titanfall
Dec 17, 2011
16,592
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You were quite excited.
I was making a mocking joke based on the information that's still accurate (due to it's riduclous subject matter of insane digital ratio's that turn underperformance to matches or improvements) Would have have made it either way.
 

test_account

XP-39C²
Mar 22, 2007
23,613
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Keep in mind that Famitsu's digital numbers are based on estimates. The real numbers might be higher or lower. Famitsu's estimates shouldnt be taken as "absolute numbers" (or what i shall call it), but rather as a curiousity, in my opinion.
 

Principate

Saint Titanfall
Dec 17, 2011
16,592
0
570
Keep in mind that Famitsu's digital numbers are based on estimates. The real numbers might be higher or lower. They shouldnt be taken as "absolute numbers" (or what i shall call it), but rather as a curiousity, in my opinion.
There's litterally the only numbers we have and I can't imagine they're in a completely different ball park to actuals. So we make do.
 
Yeah, there might be some UE4 games greenlighted and announced before what was in the original 20 was even announced. Are we just keep counting until 20?
Personally I was only going to go to 20 and then overview what type of games were adopting over to UE4 on Switch thus far, and how that broke out in first/second party vs. third party, publisher vs. indie, multiplatform vs. exclusive, and other such comparisons to track how UE4 adoption for handhelds was going in Japan.

The engine doesn't actually have good traction on mobile, so this is something of a new category for them, since it's mobile hardware, but also a dedicated device, which they've never really done a fantastic job of supporting before.

It also ties in to Japan's transition toward licensed middleware.
 

vareon

Member
Feb 5, 2007
12,797
0
0
Not anywhere
Personally I was only going to go to 20 and then overview what type of games were adopting over to UE4 on Switch thus far, and how that broke out in first/second party vs. third party, publisher vs. indie, and other such comparisons to track how UE4 adoption for handhelds was going in Japan.

The engine doesn't actually have good traction on mobile, so this is something of a new category for them, since it's mobile hardware, but also a dedicated device, which they've never really done a fantastic job of supporting before.

It also ties in to Japan's transition toward licensed middleware.
I see, thanks for this.
 

Principate

Saint Titanfall
Dec 17, 2011
16,592
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570
Personally I was only going to go to 20 and then overview what type of games were adopting over to UE4 on Switch thus far, and how that broke out in first/second party vs. third party, publisher vs. indie, multiplatform vs. exclusive, and other such comparisons to track how UE4 adoption for handhelds was going in Japan.

The engine doesn't actually have good traction on mobile, so this is something of a new category for them, since it's mobile hardware, but also a dedicated device, which they've never really done a fantastic job of supporting before.

It also ties in to Japan's transition toward licensed middleware.
Would be interesting what the break down is as the Japanese industry essentially goes through what happened in the west with Unreal Engine 3. i don't feel at this gen we'll see too many major Japanese publishers clamouring to develop their own engines for next gen however.
 

foxuzamaki

Doesn't read OPs, especially not his own
Jul 21, 2013
46,680
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st. louis
Sammy's Village

- Hello everyone, from now I'll be posting anecdotal evidence from my village here in Japan. Please anticipate the next episodes.

Pokémon vs Yo-kai Watch

- Pokemon food is literally rotting on shelves, while Yo-kai Watch food is currently sold out. This should explain the huge YW3 Sukiyachi drop this week. Fans are focusing on real food instead of virtual sukiyaki.




Level 5 and the food industry

- Now you can have snacks while playing Snack World, hihihiii. Is this a hint that a sequel is coming soon? Level 5 has a trend of naming sequels after food, and Snack World is showing legs on the charts, so Level-5 must be desperate to kill it before it succeeds any further.
Wait, Sammy your from Japan?
 

test_account

XP-39C²
Mar 22, 2007
23,613
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There's litterally the only numbers we have and I can't imagine they're in a completely different ball park to actuals. So we make do.
Since we dont know the actual numbers, we cant say for sure either way. Its something to keep in mind regardless, and not take them all as gospel.
 

Principate

Saint Titanfall
Dec 17, 2011
16,592
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570
Since we dont know the actual numbers, we cant say for sure either way. Its something to keep in mind regardless, and not take them all as gospel.
I never do but it's interesting to talk about. We're speculating here not making company affecting decisions.
 

test_account

XP-39C²
Mar 22, 2007
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I never do but it's interesting to talk about. We're speculating here not making company affecting decisions.
I know, thats exactly why i said that they're more of a curiousity than factual sales numbers. I just pointed out there (in my previous post) in regards to what you said about it being the only numbers we have, thats why we cant know for sure if they're in the ballpark, or if they are higher or lower. I didnt quote you earlier by the way, so it wasnt only directed at what you said, i'm generally speaking.


.. not making company affecting decisions.
Sometimes we do that though? :)
 

L~A

Member
Jan 19, 2013
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Of course. This is more about tracking early adoption, since these were all titles that were basically in development when the system came out.


On the one hand, I think that would help the franchise quite a bit, and Namco has been investing more money in their series lately than they normally have been.

On the other hand, it's really not clear that Namco has any actual confidence in Tales to be willing to part with anything but the bare minimum budget.
But wouldn't using a pretty competent engine, compatible with lots of platforms (including the one you're planning to support moving forward) something you would do if you were super cheap with your budget? Especially since Bamco is already using it for other projects.
 

Principate

Saint Titanfall
Dec 17, 2011
16,592
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570
I know, thats exactly why i said that they're more of a curiousity than factual sales numbers. I didnt quote you earlier by the way, so it wasnt only directed at what you said, i'm generally speaking.



Sometimes we do that though? :)
We don't, companies sometimes use us as a data points to their failure or success (sometimesat most...).

True, I trust that famitsu isn't outlandishly incorrect in their methodolgy. But right to question it as much as you want in the lack of other evidence.
 

Bruno MB

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Jan 3, 2012
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660
Majorca - Spain
PREDICTION LEAGUE OCTOBER 2017

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Sep 25 to Oct 29):

[NSW + 3DS] Fire Emblem Warriors (32 days) - 145.000
[PS4] Dragon's Dogma: Dark Arisen (25 days) - 50.000
[3DS] Mario & Luigi: RPG1 DX (25 days) - 95.000
[PS4] Gran Turismo Sport (11 days) - 215.000
[PS4 + PSV] Itadaki Street: Dragon Quest & Final Fantasy 30th Anniversary (11 days) - 65.000
[NSW] Super Mario Odyssey (3 days) - 315.000
 

Orgen

Member
Aug 4, 2005
2,174
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Of course. This is more about tracking early adoption, since these were all titles that were basically in development when the system came out.
Ahhhh ok. I thought you were trying to guess the first 20 UE4 games announced by Epic Japan but I saw your later explanation.
 

test_account

XP-39C²
Mar 22, 2007
23,613
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True, I trust that famitsu isn't outlandishly incorrect in their methodolgy. But right to question it as much as you want in the lack of other evidence.
I dont really question them that much either to be honest, but just wondering exactly how close they are.


That we do, but that's what makes this fun.
Sure, but sometimes it can look like we make the decisions in the sense that we say what should be done and not be done (hence the joke) :)
 

fortunato

Banned
Jun 14, 2017
284
0
0
Keep in mind that Famitsu's digital numbers are based on estimates. The real numbers might be higher or lower. Famitsu's estimates shouldnt be taken as "absolute numbers" (or what i shall call it), but rather as a curiousity, in my opinion.
To be fair, also retail sales data are based on estimates. Pointless clarification as tracking companies are working using samples all the time. Of course, data collection differs across transaction formats, as digital estimates are computed starting from surveys to consumers.
 

Gotdatmoney

Member
May 5, 2014
9,911
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Digital estimates will forever be better than "well it sold 150k, add in digital and were looking at about 2m give or take".

I think everyone is prepared to accept a margin of error here.
 

Principate

Saint Titanfall
Dec 17, 2011
16,592
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Digital estimates will forever be better than "well it sold 150k, add in digital and were looking at about 2m give or take".

I think everyone is prepared to accept a margin of error here.
I still laugh at those 100% digital ratio asertions. If it sold 50% less ratio wise than the previous game it underperformed substantially, I mean come on now we're not talking about pc only titles here.
 

test_account

XP-39C²
Mar 22, 2007
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To be fair, also retail sales data are based on estimates. Pointless clarification as tracking companies are working using samples all the time. Of course, data collection differs across transaction formats, as digital estimates are computed starting from surveys to consumers.
Thats true, thats also why we see different numbers from all the sales trackers here, and sometimes the numbers can be noticeably different as well. Errors happend here as well, i think for example that Famitsu tracked more Gamecubes sold than Nintendo reported to have shipped.

But as you point out, theres a difference in the method collecting data, and that makes a difference. With physical sales, here its also possible to have some shipment numbers, so the publishers can do a more close estimate. Famitsu's estimates on digital sales however are based on some surveys (are there any exact info around the method?), with no other point of reference, as far as i know.

I'm not criticizing the numbers just to have mentioned that. All i wanted to say is that its more difficult to say how well represented the numbers are without any other point of reference.


Digital estimates will forever be better than "well it sold 150k, add in digital and were looking at about 2m give or take".

I think everyone is prepared to accept a margin of error here.
Definitelly, but its a pity that we dont know the margin for error.
 

test_account

XP-39C²
Mar 22, 2007
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It's rather weird that they dont honestly. Providing a std deviation would be nice.
That they dont do what?

Doesnt NPD get official digital numbers now from some publishers? If so, i wonder if the same will happen in Japan.

I enjoy reading the digital estimates as well, just to have mentioned that. My earlier comment was more about that there might be a chance that the estimates are noticeably off as well (but as mentioned, not something that we can check into).