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[Principate]

That is would be a poor result for Fire Emblem Warriors.

Lower debut than Hyrule Warriors on a much more active platform.

Will be interesting to see how that prediction fares, they underestimated arms by like 30k though I imagine that was even less of a known quantity.

 

[Fiendcode]

Sony has a hand in it.

The extent of their hand was publishing it in western regions. Ninendo doing the same for SW3 and NG3RE didn't keep them from getting ported though once their exclusivity windows ended.

That is would be a poor result for Fire Emblem Warriors.

Lower debut than Hyrule Warriors on a much more active platform.

Zelda's a more popular IP than FE, even in Japan.

 

[Oregano]

You've also got to keep in mind Musou's continuing slide into irrelevance.

It will definitely be interesting to see how the new Dynasty Warriors does.

 

[Malakai]

Any anecdotes on the perception of FE Warriors from Japan? How is it being viewed?

 

[Jon Carter]

I know GAF is not a good indicator, but Fire Emblem is a pretty core-focused franchise, so if even GAF seems lukewarm about it, I don't expect the game to be particularly popular. Same goes for Xenoblade 2 actually. It seems like the name gets people excited more than the footage.

 

[noshten]

I know GAF is not a good indicator, but Fire Emblem is a pretty core-focused franchise, so if even GAF seems lukewarm about it, I don't expect the game to be particularly popular. Same goes for Xenoblade 2 actually. It seems like the name gets people excited more than the footage.

I think Xenoblade 2 might do a lot better than FE Warriors both in Japan and the West.

 

[Tonton]

I imagine those Sen III numbers would be good, it's a drop from previous entries but not as steep as you could have expected from going PS4 only

 

[Principate]

I know GAF is not a good indicator, but Fire Emblem is a pretty core-focused franchise, so if even GAF seems lukewarm about it, I don't expect the game to be particularly popular. Same goes for Xenoblade 2 actually. It seems like the name gets people excited more than the footage.

I feel like fatigue is settling and honestly I'm not sure FEH is really complimenting the games the same way Pokemon go is. I imagine with FE switch we'll fully see but I feel like a number customers are satisfied with FE:H and this what little demand there is for extra content in the series is being satiated by that.

 

[Skullwaker]

I think Xenoblade 2 might do a lot better than FE Warriors both in Japan and the West.

This should most certainly be the case.

FE Switch > Xenoblade 2 > FE Warriors

 

[TheLegendaryN]

{2017.09.29}
[NSW] FIFA 18 <SPT> (Electronic Arts) {2017.09.29} (¥5.800)
[NSW] FIFA 18 (&#949 _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <SPT> (Electronic Arts) {2017.09.29} (¥5.800)
[PS4] FIFA 18 # <SPT> (Electronic Arts) {2017.09.29} (¥7.800)
[PS4] FIFA 18 (3)(PlayStation 4 FIFA 18 Pack) <BUN> (Sony Interactive Entertainment) {2017.09.29} (¥36.980)
[PS4] FIFA 18 (&#949 _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| # <SPT> (Electronic Arts) {2017.09.29} (¥7.800)
[XB1] FIFA 18 # <SPT> (Electronic Arts) {2017.09.29} (¥7.800)
[XB1] FIFA 18 (&#949 _Download Version_ |DL| # <SPT> (Electronic Arts) {2017.09.29} (¥7.800)
[PS3] FIFA 18 <SPT> (Electronic Arts) {2017.09.29} (¥7.800)
[PS3] FIFA 18 (&#949 _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <SPT> (Electronic Arts) {2017.09.29} (¥7.800)
[360] FIFA 18 _Game-On-Demand Version_ |DL| <SPT> (Electronic Arts) {2017.09.29} (¥5.800)

The Switch version of FIFA18 is cheaper than the other versions? Hopefully that's is worldwide, and hopefully people will buy it

55k YSO is a small decline compared to last year's 65k launch. It'll be interesting to see how the game performs on Switch (new console) and PS3 (how dead is the console at this point ).

 

[Eolz]

I was really excited about FEW until they started talking about the roster, who was in, and why.
That + Warriors getting franchise fatigue since a while in Japan doesn't make it too surprising it'd pull out lower numbers than expected I think

 

[Gotdatmoney]

FE:W just looks boring honestly. Like Hyrule Warriors had the novelty of Zelda with lots of the cool Zelda conventions thrown in. And the character roster had way more interesting pics. I am not into musou at all and Hyrule Warriors is pretty much the only one I even contemplated buying. FE:W does not excite.

 

[Vena]

FEW is having a flounder of a weekend into release on COMG. Grats? Matches up with low YSO and generally low "hotness" on this title from what I've seen of the FE community (admittedly in NA but that still likely carries over to the other language groups). The decisions made have made it divisive and not partially well received by many.

Pokemon just marching on to the top with 46 points on the day. Though it is kind of funny to see this in comparison to the amazon.co where you'd think pokemon was doing poorly (goes to show that there's a definite lean on amazon, but the same is true of the NA Amazon where certain more core franchises show up much higher than they ultimately will at release in retail in the wider market).

The XX(22)/World(11) comparison becomes ever more pointless unless we start multiplying by 2.

That's about it, going to stop really updating on COMG unless something else interesting happens at some point or it comes back into partial relevance for a releasing title. My original point of interest has basically proved to not really be what I had anticipated on some degree.

 

[Ōkami]

1. [SWI] Pokken Tournament DX - 71
2. [PS4] Winning Eleven 2018 - 25
3. [SWI] Dragon Quest X: All in one Pack - 20
4. [PS4] Marvel vs. Capcom Infinite - 15
5. [3DS] Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age - 15
6. [PS4] NBA 2K18 - 14
7. [3DS] Metroid: Samus Returns - 12
8. [PS4] Project CARS 2 - 11
9. [3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf - Welcome amiibo - 11
10. [PS4] Everybody's Golf - 10
11. [SWI] Splatoon 2 - 10
12. [SWI] Monster Hunter XX: Nintendo Switch Ver. - 9
13. [SWI] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 9
14. [3DS] The Snack World: TreJarers - 9
15. [PS4] Grand Theft Auto V [New Price Edition] - 8
16. [SWI] Dragon Ball: Xenoverse 2 for Nintendo Switch - 8
17. [PS4] Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age - 7
18. [PS4] Yakuza Kiwami - 7
19. [SWI] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 6
20. [3DS] Mario Kart 7 - 6

Preorders
[3DS] Pokémon Ultra Sun / Ultra Moon - 226
[PS4] Gran Turismo Sport - 111
[PS4] Sen no Kiseki 3 - 90
[SWI] Super Mario Odyssey - 59
[PS4] Monster Hunter World - 47
[PS4] Call of Duty: WWII - 38
[3DS] Shin Megami Tensei: Strange Journey Redux - 38
[PS4] Yakuza Kiwami 2 - 30
[PS4] The Evil Within 2 - 26
[PS4] .hack//G.U. Last Recode - 26
[PS4] Ark: Surival Evolved - 23
[PS4] Hatsune Miku: Project Diva Future Tone DX - 21
[SWI] Fire Emblem Warriors - 20
[PS4] Assassin's Creed: Origins - 17

 

[Vena]

Holy cow. MvCI.

Did we ever get a YSO read on that one? I may have missed it.

 

[SinCityAssassin]

Forgive me, but I suddenly lost any recollection of how comgnet works. Is it in face amount or in denominations?

 

[Delio]

FEW is having a flounder of a weekend into release on COMG. Grats? Matches up with low YSO and generally low "hotness" on this title from what I've seen of the FE community (admittedly in NA but that still likely carries over to the other language groups). The decisions made have made it divisive and not partially well received by many.

Pokemon just marching on to the top with 46 points on the day. Though it is kind of funny to see this in comparison to the amazon.co where you'd think pokemon was doing poorly (goes to show that there's a definite lean on amazon, but the same is true of the NA Amazon where certain more core franchises show up much higher than they ultimately will at release in retail in the wider market).

The XX(22)/World(11) comparison becomes ever more pointless unless we start multiplying by 2.

That's about it, going to stop really updating on COMG unless something else interesting happens at some point or it comes back into partial relevance for a releasing title. My original point of interest has basically proved to not really be what I had anticipated on some degree.

Considering the general sourness about US/UM it's doing well with preorders right?

 

[Vena]

Considering the general sourness about US/UM it's doing well with preorders right?

Its Pokemon, pre-orders aren't going to tell us much. It will still be down (from other second releases, probably in the ballpark of BW2) because the ratios are going to be weird as its such a broad reaching franchise. Its more than the rest of the market is so bad, that a kinda-meh Pokemon release is crushing everything.

 

[Daphnes Nohansen Hyrule]

Going by comgnet preorder points MHW will bomb hard.

 

[Oregano]

Going by comgnet preorder points MHW will bomb hard.

Way too early to say that even if we assume Comgnet will be representative.

 

[Vena]

Going by comgnet preorder points MHW will bomb hard.

Nah. Ratios are going to inevitably vary from MHXX though initially I thought it'd track similarly since I thought it'd be the same audience more or less pre-ordering.

 

[noshten]

FEW is having a flounder of a weekend into release on COMG. Grats? Matches up with low YSO and generally low "hotness" on this title from what I've seen of the FE community (admittedly in NA but that still likely carries over to the other language groups). The decisions made have made it divisive and not partially well received by many.

Pokemon just marching on to the top with 46 points on the day. Though it is kind of funny to see this in comparison to the amazon.co where you'd think pokemon was doing poorly (goes to show that there's a definite lean on amazon, but the same is true of the NA Amazon where certain more core franchises show up much higher than they ultimately will at release in retail in the wider market).

The XX/World comparison becomes ever more pointless unless we start multiplying by 2.

That's about it, going to stop really updating on COMG unless something else interesting happens at some point or it comes back into partial relevance for a releasing title.

I do wonder about the expectations for FEW. I think it will struggle to top 500K WW this year, unless we see aggressive discounts for the holidays. Its releasing right before Odyssey in the West, which I think might help in the long run - especially if there is some price cut for Black Friday/Christmas. In terms of Japan so far it doesn't seem that it's going to do that well, if it struggles to top 100K on the Switch it would mean it barely doubled DQH sales.

In terms of Pokemon I'm expecting MHXX like decline in Japan, I'd be suprised if it sales more than 1.5 million this year even as the biggest 3DS title this December.

XX coefficient on COMG was horrible it finished with 2.1k points with an 850K opening. I'm sure at the very least MHW's coefficient will be better. It's was always the case that either MHW needs to grow a great deal in the West or it's GaaS model needs to make the difference in sales/investment.
In terms of the release date, it makes perfect sense to me - in the West January is barren so the game will get it's chance to shine provided it reviews well and has positive WOM. In Japan there was always going to be a decline going from handheld to console. MHXX final sales will be a good parallel in terms of absolute numbers and I'd personally be amazed if MHW becomes PS4's top selling game in Japan. DQXI already blew my expectations of what type of sales PS4 is capable of - so for MHW to outdo it it be pretty damn impressive for a franchise that has never been all that successful on a console in Japan.

 

[ivysaur12]

This should most certainly be the case.

FE Switch > Xenoblade 2 > FE Warriors

Yup.

I bet XB2 cracks a million, which would be big for that franchise.

 

[test_account]

Going by comgnet preorder points MHW will bomb hard.

Just wondering, what made you come to that conclusion?

 

[Mr. Pointy]

Forgive me, but I suddenly lost any recollection of how comgnet works. Is it in face amount or in denominations?

Isn't it how many copies have been preordered or bought at their stores?

 

[foxuzamaki]

So Samus Returns sold 70% of its initial shipments.

Nice

 

[KtSlime]

Yup.

I bet XB2 cracks a million, which would be big for that franchise.

Your talking worldwide right?

 

[theprodigy]

Your talking worldwide right?

No, it will be the Switch's 5th million seller in Japan /s

 

[horuhe]

Rakuten Books Sales Ranking Week 38, 2017 (Sep 18 - Sep 24)

01./01. (013./005.) [PS4] Winning Eleven 2018 <SPT> (Konami)
02./00. (014./000.) [NSW] Pokkén Tournament DX <FTG> (Pokémon Co.)
03./00. (020./000.) [PS4] NBA 2K18 <SPT> (Take-Two)
04./14. (022./041.) [NSW] Splatoon 2 <ACT> (Nintendo)
05./10. (027./026.) [3DS] Metroid: Samus Returns <ACT> (Nintendo)
06./11. (029./029.) [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe <RCE> (Nintendo)
07./18. (030./081.) [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild <ADV> (Nintendo)
08./09. (031./020.) [PS4] Everybody's Golf <SPT> (Sony Interactive)
09./05. (032./013.) [3DS] Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age <RPG> (Square Enix)
10./08. (033./019.) [PS4] Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age <RPG> (Square Enix)
11./00. (045./000.) [PS4] Yakuza: Kiwami (New Price Edition) <ADV> (Sega)
12./04. (047./010.) [3DS] Metroid: Samus Returns (Special Edition) <ACT> (Nintendo)
13./15. (049./059.) [3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf - Welcome amiibo <ETC> (Nintendo)
14./00. (050./000.) [PS4] Project Cars 2 <RCE> (Bandai Namco)
15./00. (054./000.) [NSW] Dragon Quest X: All in One Package <RPG> (Square Enix)
16./00. (057./000.) [PS4] Marvel Vs. Capcom: Infinite <FTG> (Capcom)
17./00. (062./000.) [PSV] Nil Admirari no Tenbin: Kuroyuri En'youtan <ADV> (Idea Factory)
18./00. (089./000.) [PS4] Patapon Remastered <ACT> (Sony Interactive)
19./12. (090./032.) [PS4] Destiny 2 <ACT> (Sony Interactive)
20./16. (099./077.) [NSW] ARMS <FTG> (Nintendo)

Rakuten Books Pre-Orders Ranking Week 38, 2017 (Sep 18 - Sep 24)

01./00. (001./000.) [PS4] Monster Hunter: World <ACT> (Capcom)
02./01. (002./002) [NSW] Super Mario Odyssey <ACT> (Nintendo)
03./00. (004./000.) [3DS] Pokémon Ultra Sun <RPG> (Pokémon Co.)
04./00. (005./000.) [3DS] Pokémon Ultra Moon <RPG> (Pokémon Co.)
05./04. (006./011.) [PS4] FIFA 18 <SPT> (Electronic Arts)
06./00. (007./000.) [PS4] PlayStation 4 Pro (MH:W Liolaeus Edition) <BUN> (Sony Interactive)
07./06. (008./023.) [PS4] FIFA 18 (Ronaldo Edition) <SPT> (Electronic Arts)
08./00. (010./000.) [PS4] Monster Hunter: World (Collector's Edition) <ACT> (Capcom)
09./00. (011./000.) [3DS] Pokémon Ultra Sun / Ultra Moon (Double Pack) <RPG> (Pokémon Co.)
10./09. (012./028.) [NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 2 (Collector's Edition) <RPG> (Nintendo)

Rakuten Books Ranking Week 37, 2017 (Sep 11 - Sep 17)

***WARNING***

* Note: Games on the Rakuten Books Rankings are ONLY based on sales at Rakuten Books and does NOT count games sold by other retailers at Rakuten.
** Note 2: Games on the Pre-Orders Ranking are counted as net sales, so it might possibly affect the games listed on the Sales Ranking, since those sales are NOT added afterwards.

 

[DecoReturns]

I'll be impressed if Xenoblade 2 reaches 1 million worldwide. I still have some doubts about it reaching that, but here's hoping.

 

[OfficerRaichu15]

I'll be impressed if Xenoblade 2 reaches 1 million worldwide. I still have some doubts about it reaching that, but here's hoping.

Most of the games released so far have done better than expected. XC2 imo will continue that trend and reach 1 million.

 

[Jon Carter]

Most of the games released so far have done better than expected. XC2 imo will continue that trend and reach 1 million.

I don't think that's true of Nintendo's games apart from maybe Zelda.

 

[theprodigy]

Rakuten Books Pre-Orders Ranking Week 38, 2017 (Sep 18 - Sep 24)

01./00. (001./000.) [PS4] Monster Hunter: World <ACT> (Capcom)
02./01. (002./002) [NSW] Super Mario Odyssey <ACT> (Nintendo)
03./00. (004./000.) [3DS] Pokémon Ultra Sun <RPG> (Pokémon Co.)
04./00. (005./000.) [3DS] Pokémon Ultra Moon <RPG> (Pokémon Co.)
05./04. (006./011.) [PS4] FIFA 18 <SPT> (Electronic Arts)
06./00. (007./000.) [PS4] PlayStation 4 Pro (MH:W Liolaeus Edition) <BUN> (Sony Interactive)
07./06. (008./023.) [PS4] FIFA 18 (Ronaldo Edition) <SPT> (Electronic Arts)
08./00. (010./000.) [PS4] Monster Hunter: World (Collector's Edition) <ACT> (Capcom)
09./00. (011./000.) [3DS] Pokémon Ultra Sun / Ultra Moon (Double Pack) <RPG> (Pokémon Co.)
10./09. (012./028.) [NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 2 (Collector's Edition) <RPG> (Nintendo)

hmm some game we were just talking about isn't here either

 

[Skullwaker]

I don't think that's true of Nintendo's games apart from maybe Zelda.

I would argue that all of Nintendo's games have performed better WW than initially expected. At least all the ones that we have WW sales figures for (so Zelda, MK, 1-2 Switch and ARMS).

 

[Jon Carter]

I'll start with the puns: Flop Embomb Warriors, FEW copies sold.

 

[Lonely1]

Why is FIFA releasing first on the PS4?

 

[Sandfox]

I don't think that's true of Nintendo's games apart from maybe Zelda.

It's been a while, but from what I remember predictions for Switch HW and SW here were low and pretty much everything blew past expectations.

 

[Kyoufu]

Why is FIFA releasing first on the PS4?

The Ronaldo Edition has 3 days early access.

 

[vareon]

I don't feel much enthusiasm in Japan for FE Musou, though it might be anecdotal. I feel like there's little overlap between fans of recent FE characters and the Musou genre. Still, all of these are just my feelings.

 

[Sterok]

So I wasn't the only one that thought Fire Emblem and Musou was a terrible fit from the get go. And an unimpressive roster doesn't help things.

 

[Hero of Legend]

Finally got around to adding the Switch numbers for weeks 36 and 37:

https://goldmetalsonic.wordpress.co...tch-lifetime-japanese-sales-data-compilation/

 

[duckroll]

I don't feel much enthusiasm in Japan

 

[Vena]

Is MvCI even going to open over 20-30k?

 

[Hero of Legend]

Is MvCI even going to open over 20-30k?

Xenoverse 2 Switch might actually beat its FW if it's around 20k, wow.

 

[theprodigy]

for comparison, MvC3 first week (Media Create):

02. / 00. [PS3] Marvel Vs. Capcom 3: Fate of Two Worlds (Capcom) {2011.02.17} - 67.187 / NEW
08. / 00. [360] Marvel Vs. Capcom 3: Fate of Two Worlds (Capcom) {2011.02.17} - 13.779 / NEW

 

[SinCityAssassin]

Isn't it how many copies have been preordered or bought at their stores?

Per store?

 

[Daphnes Nohansen Hyrule]

Just wondering, what made you come to that conclusion?

Preorders at Comgnet are pretty in line with SMO which is not going to open over 500k.

 

[Skullwaker]

Preorders at Comgnet are pretty in line with SMO which is not going to open over 500k.

To be fair, SMO releases 3 months before MHW. Also Comg ratios for Mario and MH games are generally very different.

It's not worth comparing the two.

 

[BrokenJohnCena]

will SMO manage to sell 500k+ FW?

 

[Aters]

To be fair, SMO releases 3 months before MHW. Also Comg ratios for Mario and MH games are generally very different.

It's not worth comparing the two.

Yeah, usually Nintendo games, or games on Nintendo platforms, have larger ratio, which makes the whole situation all the more worrying.