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Media Create Sales: Week 38, 2017 (Sep 18 - Sep 24)

Vena

Member
Sep 2, 2014
16,385
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We've also seen fairly substantial contraction on fighting games in the market sans Smash, so I don't even know if Dissidia is remotely safe.
 

Oregano

Member
Mar 13, 2013
12,412
3
0
Famitsu has it at 461k LTD.
Cheers, I think 200k would be a solid result for NT considering that.

We've also seen fairly substantial contraction on fighting games in the market sans Smash, so I don't even know if Dissidia is remotely safe.
I was approaching it more from the FF side where the main releases are now selling what spin offs did a generation ago and the spin offs are selling like the other IPs SE killed off.
 

MoonFrog

Member
Jul 25, 2015
4,129
0
265
Tbh I think most games that have gone from something among PS4/PS3/Vita to PS4/Switch are either like Builders, which is part of a franchise that has a lot of recent history with Nintendo, or something like Disgaea and Atelier--niche PlayStation JRPGs looking to the continuation of handheld form-factor to prop up their sales.

The things I have no idea about are the ones being discussed here: the Dragon Ball game and the AoT game. They're the ones that seem they could disappoint or please the desire for a multiplatform gained support success story.

Also: What would be a big "PlayStation" game to come to Switch, let alone what is announced as coming?

Tales? (something unspecified is announced to be coming)
Persona? (I hope it goes multiplatform. Atlus likes and has been rewarded for putting it on handhelds but...)
Mainline Final Fantasy? (They quashed the rumor that they were trying to bring it)
Mainline Resident Evil? (Capcom is bringing Resident Evil, but spin-offs, one of which started as a 3DS game so there is history there).
Metal Gear? (Unclear where the franchise is even going in the long term future and how Survive will do).
Souls? (From was on the supporters board but who knows what they could be working on (if they do end up supporting it)?)
Yakuza? (Did poorly on Wii U, right?)
Tekken? (This did okay on Wii U, right?)
Street Fighter? (SFV is tied to PlayStation and didn't do well. The Switch game did fine).

What has recent history of selling a lot but skipping Nintendo?
 

Psycho_Mantis

Banned
Jul 28, 2012
26,651
0
0
Some of these don't seem even remotely likely to hit 300k based on past precedent:



This is the latest CoD (capping off at ~150k before it fell off the chart):
01./00. [PS4] Call of Duty: Infinite Warfare # <ACT> (Sony Interactive Entertainment) {2016.11.04} (¥7.900) - 105.764 / NEW <59,75%>

This is GT6, and globally we've seen a fall for the racer genre in general so I don't know if it will go up or down:
01./00. [PS3] Gran Turismo 6 # <RCE> (Sony Computer Entertainment) {2013.12.05} (¥6.980) - 204.784 / NEW <55,92%>
07./00. [PS4] Driveclub <RCE> (Sony Computer Entertainment) {2014.10.09} (¥6.372) - 8.620 / NEW (not much of a comparison)

Yakuza isn't looking too hot (and decline is expected further):
01./00. [PS4] Yakuza 6: The Song of Life # <ADV> (Sega) {2016.12.08} (¥8.190) - 218.168 / NEW <60,50%>
01./00. [PS4] Yakuza: Kiwami <ADV> (Sega) {2016.01.21} (¥6.490) - 103.256 / NEW <74,43%>
02./00. [PS3] Yakuza: Kiwami <ADV> (Sega) {2016.01.21} (¥6.490) - 60.427 / NEW <75,15%>

No idea what to expect of the others, only MHW and DQB2 are a sure bet.
Why are you looking at FW lol

GT6 - 376k
YK - 260k

COD IW didn't have good reception but CODs have potential to do 300k+. BO3 on PS4 did 400k+.
 

Vena

Member
Sep 2, 2014
16,385
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0
I was approaching it more from the FF side where the main releases are now selling what spin offs did a generation ago and the spin offs are selling like the other IPs SE killed off.
Thats fair, though it sounds more like a double-whammy for contraction more than anything!

Why are you looking at FW lol

GT6 - 376k
YK - 260k

COD IW didn't have good reception but CODs have potential to do 300k+. BO3 on PS4 did 400k+.
First week is generally a good indicator on performance, if it opens at or above 200k its usually going to break 300k for instance on just basic trends of week over week declines. It still shows that the titles aren't "that large". Yakuza did not break 300k and we're expecting further decline in general. Again, these numbers are only part of the picture.

Blops is in general the high bar for CoD, WW has no real reference point but the most recent release did not do well and it is the most recent example to reference.
 

Oregano

Member
Mar 13, 2013
12,412
3
0
Tekken? (This did okay on Wii U, right?)
Nah, Tekken bombed on Wii U as well.

200k LTD would be disappointing. 200k for FW would be good though,with 300-350k being the LTD. I think the game will sell better in the west.
I think 200k would be about the point where its "okay" but I'm sure general expectations would be a bit higher.

Thats fair, though it sounds more like a double-whammy for contraction more than anything!
There's the triple whammy of PSP vs PS4 too.
 

boiled goose

good with gravy
Oct 30, 2007
12,848
1
0
The only made up fact was that it hit bomba bins and even then i said ''if i remember correctly''. Kinda funny how you missed this. The only other fact i made is that Tales fanbase wasn't on Wii (well Baba said fanbase was on Playstation, so it's not so made up) which i think it makes more sense than ''game bombed because of bugs'' or ''game bombed because of FFXIII'' but i see you don't have problem with these claims.



There is no ''my good range'' but only Tales range. Personally, i always check the numbers regulary or before talking about sales, something that seems you are not doing since you say you don't have the numbers. Here

http://garaph.info/softwaregroup.php?grid=42

As you can see main titles range anywhere from 300k to 600k with the only exceptions i mentioned. Graces Wii and Vesperia are the two of the worst selling main games. I think this says a lot.



In Tales case, that's how it works.



For real now, 330k for Graces f is not great despite being being a port and a Tales game? You are wrong.
From the numbers you provided in that list, both Graces titles fall within one standard deviation of the mean. (I of course combined budget releases with original releases)

When split by generation, PS2 had ~82% of the Tales userbase, while PS3 had ~35%.

If the numbers require more context to justify your claims, you need to provide that context. The numbers as provided don't really do much to further your claims other than the Wii did not have a significant portion of Tales userbase.
 

Fiendcode

Member
Jan 15, 2017
1,602
0
220
For PS4 I can think of a few contenders:

GTS
DW9
COD WW2
Yakuza Kiwami 2
MHW
Dissidia NT
Fist of the North Star
DQB2

I'm actually curious how RDR2 will do as well.
I only see MHW and DW9 passing 300k out of that list. Maybe Hokuto too.

I agree.
I would say that 200k/300k on Switch would be a good result
200k would be okay for Switch. I expect the PS4 version to orobably be around that too.
 

MoonFrog

Member
Jul 25, 2015
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265
Tbh thinking about this all is pretty sad.

Switch comes in with the potential to provide a broad, home audience for Japanese console games, both those that have historically been on Nintendo portables and those that have historically been on Sony platforms.

It has this potential because a) it appears to be selling in Japan, and b) it has the guts to make it "easy" to transition from PS4/PS3/Vita to PS4/Switch. This is a major paradigm shift for the industry. Instead of hitting a legacy home console and a failed handheld to shore up sales, the new, presumptive market leader can be hit. You can be both PlayStation and Nintendo without putting in the sort of effort that went into having two versions of Dragon Quest XI or Ni No Kuni.

Yet, thinking about this now a couple doubts creep in:

1-historical under-performance of some of the bigger PS franchises on Nintendo (e.g. Yakuza on Wii U).

2-uncertainty that the games I think would be big on Switch will ever be on Switch (e.g. Persona).

3-the perception I have (perhaps a misperception) that it is the smaller games making the jump, rather than the bigger ones. This isn't a bad thing, per say--and it is a good thing if these games can find an audience on Switch--but it does plant the doubt that perhaps there will be a difference in response to the opportunity from companies looking to sell a bit more and companies with larger ambitions.

In general, I do wonder if Switch's positioning will be more a boon towards maintaining, rather than acquiring support, i.e. a) Switch's success through differentiating itself from mobile will keep interest in developing games for dedicated portable consoles and b) the possibility of doing Switch/PS4 may keep some developers on Nintendo platforms rather than jumping to PS4 (for RoW) or mobile (for Japan).

That is, I wonder if it'll discourage things like DQ or MH going straight PS4 in the future, both things, which were seemingly threatening to happen, more than it'll encourage things like RE8 Switch or whatever.

I hope it does both.
 

Lonely1

Unconfirmed Member
Jul 20, 2009
16,360
1
30
Mexcio City
We've also seen fairly substantial contraction on fighting games in the market sans Smash, so I don't even know if Dissidia is remotely safe.
Is Dissidia projected to be larger than SFV? All I know about the franchise is that I didn't got the PSP games.
 

KillerMan91

Member
Aug 24, 2011
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500
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I think that RDR2 will be easy 300k+ seller in Japan despite the setting after GTA V moving over 1.5 million units. Rockstar going to have completely different brand recognition.
 
Tbh thinking about this all is pretty sad.

Switch comes in with the potential to provide a broad, home audience for Japanese console games, both those that have historically been on Nintendo portables and those that have historically been on Sony platforms.

It has this potential because a) it appears to be selling in Japan, and b) it has the guts to make it "easy" to transition from PS4/PS3/Vita to PS4/Switch. This is a major paradigm shift for the industry. Instead of hitting a legacy home console and a failed handheld to shore up sales, the new, presumptive market leader can be hit. You can be both PlayStation and Nintendo without putting in the sort of effort that went into having two versions of Dragon Quest XI or Ni No Kuni.

Yet, thinking about this now a couple doubts creep in:

1-historical under-performance of some of the bigger PS franchises on Nintendo (e.g. Yakuza on Wii U).

2-uncertainty that the games I think would be big on Switch will ever be on Switch (e.g. Persona).

3-the perception I have (perhaps a misperception) that it is the smaller games making the jump, rather than the bigger ones. This isn't a bad thing, per say--and it is a good thing if these games can find an audience on Switch--but it does plant the doubt that perhaps there will be a difference in response to the opportunity from companies looking to sell a bit more and companies with larger ambitions.

In general, I do wonder if Switch's positioning will be more a boon towards maintaining, rather than acquiring support, i.e. a) Switch's success through differentiating itself from mobile will keep interest in developing games for dedicated portable consoles and b) the possibility of doing Switch/PS4 may keep some developers on Nintendo platforms rather than jumping to PS4 (for RoW) or mobile (for Japan).

That is, I wonder if it'll discourage things like DQ or MH going straight PS4 in the future, both things, which were seemingly threatening to happen, more than it'll encourage things like RE8 Switch or whatever.

I hope it does both.
Yes, there is certainly a possibility that the strategic changes Japanese companies made due to market conditions actually put the Switch in an awkward spot despite sales success.

1.) For the domestic market, most publishers focus heavily on mobile, and increasingly divert more and more resources into that.

2.) For the dedicates market, many publishers have refocused on selling to anime and Japanese game fans in the West and Asia, causing them to skew heavily toward the PS4 and Pc, and chase progressively higher technical showcases even if they’re still tame compared to their Western counterparts.

The remaining markets this become children’s games (which are hard to monetize on mobile and more Japanese specific), more casual titles (ditto), monolithic brands that are so strong domestically that they can sell anywhere, and games that can be made multiplatform more easily.
 

Eolz

Member
Jun 1, 2014
10,193
17
475
While I don't disagree that these all have potential, I am still left wondering what the first successful Switch game will be that:

1.) Is not a franchise that was a success on the Wii or Wii U (Dragon Quest, Taiko, that kind of thing)
2.) Is not an exclusive, since there aren't actually a lot of exclusives these days

To me, that would really be the start of the Switch showing that it can successfully pick up games from the more multiplatform oriented modern Japanese publishing approach in the domestic market.

Like, as an example, if we had Attack on Titan 2 come out and do 50%+ of the PS4 version's sales on Switch, that would be a good example, especially if we pretended the game was something moving 200K+ at launch instead of bombing.
Yeah. Part of why I lead off with the first question is I view selling 100K copies of a game that sells 300K copies total as more relevant than selling 4K copies of a game that sells 15K copies total.

Now, obviously Dragon Ball is more in the middle area here, so it is still an interesting submission.
So would you consider a game series or genre that basically replaces the vita ratio to be successful?
Like Atelier/Senran Kagura/etc where the ratio could be around 50/50 60/40 between Vita and other platforms for example.

I find it a bit hard to think about non-niche genre, multiplat games that would become more successful on Switch than PS4 right now tbh (outside of lolmonhun if it was multiplat there). For exclusive or niche genres, it's possible to have successes relative to the platform or the respective franchise though, obviously.
 

Fiendcode

Member
Jan 15, 2017
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220
I think that RDR2 will be easy 300k+ seller in Japan despite the setting after GTA V moving over 1.5 million units. Rockstar going to have completely different brand recognition.
GTAV moved 1.5m across generations and GTA was already a series that was doing over 600k way back on the PS2.

RDR1 did under 200k and the sequel isn’t getting any crossgen double dipping unless there’s a PS5 port in the works (which there probably is, lol). It won’t be an easy 300k+ seller imo even if it eventually crosses that threashold at some point.
 
So would you consider a game series or genre that basically replaces the vita ratio to be successful?
Like Atelier/Senran Kagura/etc where the ratio could be around 50/50 60/40 between Vita and other platforms for example.

I find it a bit hard to think about non-niche genre, multiplat games that would become more successful on Switch than PS4 right now tbh (outside of lolmonhun if it was multiplat there). For exclusive or niche genres, it's possible to have successes relative to the platform or the respective franchise though, obviously.
I would pretty much just look at the Vita vs. PS4/PS3 ratio for games (or if the PS4/PS3 version sold less, go with that instead).

Mind, I don't think it's critical it reaches those kinds of numbers tomorrow, but if games are doing 75% PS4/25% Switch this time next year, I think it's harder to convince publishers and franchises who are not sold on the platform - especially those that would require extra effort - to come on over, especially if the Switch is not representing a really meaningful number in other markets.

Basically the question in my mind is "Does the system get the kind of support Nintendo's consoles have historically gotten plus some select bonuses from the 3DS and PlayStation camp?" or "Is this actually a platform supported like the king dedicated device in Japan would have been if we turned back the hands of time?"

Now, obviously if everyone was gung-ho to continue on their 3DS product lines, this would be a no brainer, but a lot of that seemed to just get phased out over the course of the generation.
 

Oregano

Member
Mar 13, 2013
12,412
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0
I would pretty much just look at the Vita vs. PS4/PS3 ratio for games (or if the PS4/PS3 version sold less, go with that instead).

Mind, I don't think it's critical it reaches those kinds of numbers tomorrow, but if games are doing 75% PS4/25% Switch this time next year, I think it's harder to convince publishers and franchises who are not sold on the platform - especially those that would require extra effort - to come on over, especially if the Switch is not representing a really meaningful number in other markets.

Basically the question in my mind is "Does the system get the kind of support Nintendo's consoles have historically gotten plus some select bonuses from the 3DS and PlayStation camp?" or "Is this actually a platform supported like the king dedicated device in Japan would have been if we turned back the hands of time?"

Now, obviously if everyone was gung-ho to continue on their 3DS product lines, this would be a no brainer, but a lot of that seemed to just get phased out over the course of the generation.
At least on a hardware level the Switch is outperforming 3DS in the west by the looks of things which is something in its favour. Nintendo also seems to be putting more effort towards Asia even if they're still far behind.
 

KillerMan91

Member
Aug 24, 2011
6,928
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500
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GTAV moved 1.5m across generations and GTA was already a series that was doing over 600k way back on the PS2.

RDR1 did under 200k and the sequel isn't getting any crossgen double dipping unless there's a PS5 port in the works (which there probably is, lol). It won't be an easy 300k+ seller imo even if it eventually crosses that threashold at some point.
I hardly think that people today buying PS4 version of GTA are the same people that bought PS3 version back in a day. PS4 version has gotten over 500k thanks to it being one of those rare titles with actual legs even in japanese market with new console owners buying the game. Same as in west but to lesser degree. I mean the game sold 75k units first week on PS4 and is now over 500k units with most of buyers most likely being first timers. I mean there is some overlap but the game is definitely closer to 1.5 million in single owners than to 1 million. Personally I see RDR2 being easy 300k+ game. I mean I can definitely be wrong like I have been many times. I guess only time will tell.
 

Fiendcode

Member
Jan 15, 2017
1,602
0
220
I hardly think that people today buying PS4 version of GTA are the same people that bought PS3 version back in a day. PS4 version has gotten over 500k thanks to it being one of those rare titles with actual legs even in japanese market with new console owners buying the game. Same as in west but to lesser degree. I mean the game sold 75k units first week on PS4 and is now over 500k units with most of buyers most likely being first timers.
Again, GTA was a series that sold over 600k on PS2 and over 800k on PS3 already though. RDR sold under 200k on PS3, it’s probably not going magically double sales on PS4.
 

KillerMan91

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Aug 24, 2011
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Again, GTA was a series that sold over 600k on PS2 and over 800k on PS3 already though. RDR sold under 200k on PS3, it's probably not going magically double sales on PS4.
GTA V is 1 million seller on PS3 alone. Add new owners of PS4 version and even with some double dipping it should have at least 1.2 million+ single owners which is double of PS2 era.
 

James Scott

Banned
May 24, 2014
11,386
2
0
We've also seen fairly substantial contraction on fighting games in the market sans Smash, so I don't even know if Dissidia is remotely safe.
Dissidia is a weird case where I played it to death with my friends at school. Knew 5 friends with it which I didn’t see much back in the day.

I imagine we were pretty big outliers, tho. :lol

The sequel is pretty junk, and I’m not sure how much of an impact the lack of local multiplayer will have, but it should probably do well enough thanks to the FF brand.
 

MoonFrog

Member
Jul 25, 2015
4,129
0
265
I think Nintendo did a lot of the right things with the hardware they are putting out and the software to get it on its feet. I think they have a product that can bridge the PS3/DS gap and sell well in Japan. They are setting the table and providing core attractions to it, but the question remains what other dishes developers are going to bring to the table and what consumers will eat.

I hope developers are enticed to go all out and I hope consumers gorge themselves :p.

...

The profile Switch ends up having is going to say a lot about the future of the Japanese dedicated console market.
 

foxuzamaki

Doesn't read OPs, especially not his own
Jul 21, 2013
46,680
1
665
28
st. louis
Dissidia is a weird case where I played it to death with my friends at school. Knew 5 friends with it which I didn’t see much back in the day.

I imagine we were pretty big outliers, tho. :lol

The sequel is pretty junk, and I’m not sure how much of an impact the lack of local multiplayer will have, but it should probably do well enough thanks to the FF brand.
Is the new one considered a bad game?
 

jnWake

Member
Mar 30, 2013
4,440
1
0
Isn't the new Dissidia a 3v3 arena fighter of sorts? I haven't read that much on it but I don't really see it being very succesful.
 

Fiendcode

Member
Jan 15, 2017
1,602
0
220
GTA V is 1 million seller on PS3 alone. Add new owners of PS4 version and even with some double dipping it should have at least 1.2 million+ single owners which is double of PS2 era.
I was looking at Famitsu, which is around 850k for PS3 (all versions). Even still your assertion for RDR2 easily doubling sales over RDR1 doesn’t seem likely and I don’t think you can just point to GTA’s growth to rationalize it when GTA was already much more popular.
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Dec 17, 2008
11,738
0
0
GTA V is 1 million seller on PS3 alone. Add new owners of PS4 version and even with some double dipping it should have at least 1.2 million+ single owners which is double of PS2 era.
There are additional numbers for first 2 versions. Second budget re-release cleared 37k last year. The game is easily over 1m by now and that number doesn't include digital sales.

[PS3] Grand Theft Auto V (&#949;) _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <ACT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) {2013.12.18} (¥7.400)
[PS3] Grand Theft Auto V (&#949;) _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| [1][New Price Edition] <ACT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) {2014.06.26} (¥4.990)
[PS3] Grand Theft Auto V (&#949;) _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| [2][New Price Edition] <ACT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) {2015.10.08} (¥3.240)

2013 CY {2012.12.31 - 2013.12.29} 009. [PS3] Grand Theft Auto V <ACT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) {2013.10.10} (¥7.400) - 649.091 / 649.091
2014 CY {2013.12.30 - 2014.12.28} 050. [PS3] Grand Theft Auto V <ACT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) {2013.10.10} (¥7.400) - 138.142 / 787.233
2015 CY {2014.12.29 - 2016.01.03} 000. [PS3] Grand Theft Auto V <ACT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) {2013.10.10} (¥7.400) - 72 / 787.305
2016 CY {2016.01.04 - 2017.01.01} 000. [PS3] Grand Theft Auto V <ACT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) {2013.10.10} (¥7.400) - 18 / 787.323

2014 CY {2013.12.30 - 2014.12.28} 085. [PS3] Grand Theft Auto V [1][New Price Edition] <ACT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) {2014.06.26} (¥4.990) - 96.084 / 96.084
2015 CY {2014.12.29 - 2016.01.03} 118. [PS3] Grand Theft Auto V [1][New Price Edition] <ACT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) {2014.06.26} (¥4.990) - 58.119 / 154.204
2016 CY {2016.01.04 - 2017.01.01} 000. [PS3] Grand Theft Auto V [1][New Price Edition] <ACT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) {2014.06.26} (¥4.990) - 344 / 154.548

2015 CY {2014.12.29 - 2016.01.03} 280. [PS3] Grand Theft Auto V [2][New Price Edition] <ACT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) {2015.10.08} (¥3.240) - 18.671 / 18.671
2016 CY {2016.01.04 - 2017.01.01} 168. [PS3] Grand Theft Auto V [2][New Price Edition] <ACT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) {2015.10.08} (¥3.240) - 36.813 / 55.484
 

KillerMan91

Member
Aug 24, 2011
6,928
0
500
Finland
I was looking at Famitsu, which is around 850k for PS3 (all versions). Even still your assertion for RDR2 easily doubling sales over RDR1 doesn't seem likely and I don't think you can just point to GTA's growth to rationalize it when GTA was already much more popular.
Well sure GTA has been decently popular in Japan since GTA III. I just think that with how much growth there was with GTA V (and also in general western games have seen growth since RDR days in Japan) that will also rub off on RDR2 as the first proper next gen effort from Rockstar. I also predict that in west RDR2 will see huge growth compared to original (from 12 million to over 20 million).
 

fortunato

Banned
Jun 14, 2017
284
0
0
I would pretty much just look at the Vita vs. PS4/PS3 ratio for games (or if the PS4/PS3 version sold less, go with that instead).

Mind, I don't think it's critical it reaches those kinds of numbers tomorrow, but if games are doing 75% PS4/25% Switch this time next year, I think it's harder to convince publishers and franchises who are not sold on the platform - especially those that would require extra effort - to come on over, especially if the Switch is not representing a really meaningful number in other markets.

Basically the question in my mind is "Does the system get the kind of support Nintendo's consoles have historically gotten plus some select bonuses from the 3DS and PlayStation camp?" or "Is this actually a platform supported like the king dedicated device in Japan would have been if we turned back the hands of time?"

Now, obviously if everyone was gung-ho to continue on their 3DS product lines, this would be a no brainer, but a lot of that seemed to just get phased out over the course of the generation.
Again, I think there is a false equivalence going on with the question you are asking: "Is this actually a platform supported like the king dedicated device in Japan would have been if we turned back the hands of time?". Nintendo platforms are different than Sony platforms because they have a strong first party support (in Japan, this is even more relevant because top video game franchises are all owned by Nintendo: Mario, Pokémon, Animal Crossing). For this reason, it is hard to think them getting a top-notch support from third parties---at least, as good as the support on even mildly successful Sony platforms. Even on DS, some pretty big companies were pretty reluctant in developing games; Capcom, Ace Attorney aside, was basically absent; same as Konami and Koei Tecmo, even if the installed base was huge and plenty of other companies were successful. The reasons are simple: third part will compete with Nintendo games; Nintendo games typically sell a lot, and therefore sales are very concentrated on top sellers (rather than spread across mid-sized titles, as on PS4); also, Nintendo audience is typically younger or older, while Sony audience is more between 18-35 yo.

Aside AAA titles that will not appear on Switch for technical reasons (even if games like Resident Evil VII or Final Fantasy XV might have a chance, apparently), what is left? As you mentioned, games that were multi-platform between PS3/PSV and PS4. Now, among them there are mainly two categories: pretty big games, such as Dragon Quest spin-offs, successful Musou cross-overs, God Eater, Persona, Tales of; and small and mid-sized games, such as Gust, Falcom, Spike Chunsoft and Nippon Ichi stuffs, Hatsune Miku, anime tie-ins. Now, the questions are: what does Switch need? What do developers need?

I think that Switch does need a selection of games from both categories, but not necessarily all of them. Do Falcom games and some extra stuffs by Bandai Namco make a difference, at the end? Hard to say. Switch has already proven to get Gust games and Dragon Quest spin-offs; a Tales of is likely in the working. If they will sell well, developers will keep making them, even if the ratio is largely in favour of PS4, especially during the first years. Switch installed base is going to increase a lot, and worldwide sales look good; in particular, Switch audience seems more skewed towards the 18-35 window which typically Sony is known for, and Nintendo games attract people that are more likely to buy Japanese games.
 

Psycho_Mantis

Banned
Jul 28, 2012
26,651
0
0
Tbh thinking about this all is pretty sad.

Switch comes in with the potential to provide a broad, home audience for Japanese console games, both those that have historically been on Nintendo portables and those that have historically been on Sony platforms.

It has this potential because a) it appears to be selling in Japan, and b) it has the guts to make it "easy" to transition from PS4/PS3/Vita to PS4/Switch. This is a major paradigm shift for the industry. Instead of hitting a legacy home console and a failed handheld to shore up sales, the new, presumptive market leader can be hit. You can be both PlayStation and Nintendo without putting in the sort of effort that went into having two versions of Dragon Quest XI or Ni No Kuni.

Yet, thinking about this now a couple doubts creep in:

1-historical under-performance of some of the bigger PS franchises on Nintendo (e.g. Yakuza on Wii U).

2-uncertainty that the games I think would be big on Switch will ever be on Switch (e.g. Persona).

3-the perception I have (perhaps a misperception) that it is the smaller games making the jump, rather than the bigger ones. This isn't a bad thing, per say--and it is a good thing if these games can find an audience on Switch--but it does plant the doubt that perhaps there will be a difference in response to the opportunity from companies looking to sell a bit more and companies with larger ambitions.

In general, I do wonder if Switch's positioning will be more a boon towards maintaining, rather than acquiring support, i.e. a) Switch's success through differentiating itself from mobile will keep interest in developing games for dedicated portable consoles and b) the possibility of doing Switch/PS4 may keep some developers on Nintendo platforms rather than jumping to PS4 (for RoW) or mobile (for Japan).

That is, I wonder if it'll discourage things like DQ or MH going straight PS4 in the future, both things, which were seemingly threatening to happen, more than it'll encourage things like RE8 Switch or whatever.

I hope it does both.
Not really. Japanese software sales have been declining for generations, resulting in many publishers seeing the overseas market just as valuable, if not more, hence a globally successful console would be the priority in most cases: PS4 atm. PC is getting there but still has some way to go. SW is not there and even then needs to prove its receptive to some of these franchises. It has the advantage of being closer to the PS4 than the 3DS was to the PS3 but its still some way behind to an extent where games need to downgraded in ways devs/pubs may not want to.
 

James Scott

Banned
May 24, 2014
11,386
2
0
A problem Switch will face with these 3rd party releases is that those publishers haven’t cared about building an audience on Nintendo systems for awhile.

FIFA last gen was a pretty big shit show, anime games constantly skipped it in favor of PS3 and 360, few releases were either late and/or considerably worse.

Let’s see if publishers can turn that around, though it doesn’t seem like it’ll happen soon.
 

Eolz

Member
Jun 1, 2014
10,193
17
475
I would pretty much just look at the Vita vs. PS4/PS3 ratio for games (or if the PS4/PS3 version sold less, go with that instead).

Mind, I don't think it's critical it reaches those kinds of numbers tomorrow, but if games are doing 75% PS4/25% Switch this time next year, I think it's harder to convince publishers and franchises who are not sold on the platform - especially those that would require extra effort - to come on over, especially if the Switch is not representing a really meaningful number in other markets.

Basically the question in my mind is "Does the system get the kind of support Nintendo's consoles have historically gotten plus some select bonuses from the 3DS and PlayStation camp?" or "Is this actually a platform supported like the king dedicated device in Japan would have been if we turned back the hands of time?"

Now, obviously if everyone was gung-ho to continue on their 3DS product lines, this would be a no brainer, but a lot of that seemed to just get phased out over the course of the generation.
Fair enough. I definitely agree that 75/25 next year in favor of other platforms would be a big issue.
Maybe some publishers (we know which ones) will wake up and bring support a year later like they started doing with the PS4... At least it's promising that the ones that pushed the Vita already started doing the transition there, fully in the west and partially in Japan (KT is a great example there).

Isn't the new Dissidia a 3v3 arena fighter of sorts? I haven't read that much on it but I don't really see it being very succesful.
Yeah. It was also an arcade exclusive for more than a year in japan.
 

Moor-Angol

Banned
Aug 26, 2005
4,504
1
0
44
Japan
retrogamesheaven.com
COMGnet ranking 2017/10/03

1. (3DS) Pokemon Ultra Sun & Moon - 239pt (combined)
2. (PS4) Monster Hunter World - 120pt (regular only)
3. (PS3) Gran Turismo Sport- 115pt (combined)
4. (NSW) Super Mario Odyssey - 85pt


ain't Mario a little low considering it's out in just 3 weeks ?

people in Niigata pref. don't like italian plumbers ??
 
Jul 28, 2014
13,406
23
415
COMGnet ranking 2017/10/03

1. (3DS) Pokemon Ultra Sun & Moon - 239pt (combined)
2. (PS4) Monster Hunter World - 120pt (regular only)
3. (PS3) Gran Turismo Sport- 115pt (combined)
4. (NSW) Super Mario Odyssey - 85pt


ain't Mario a little low considering it's out in just 3 weeks ?

people in Niigata pref. don't like italian plumbers ??
Not really, 3D Mario games only do pretty well in Japan, not EXCEPTIONALLY well.
 

Vena

Member
Sep 2, 2014
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Its tracking along 3DLand.

I'd say its fine.

Its a family-core title, not a core title. It's about legs.
 

MoonFrog

Member
Jul 25, 2015
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Not really. Japanese software sales have been declining for generations, resulting in many publishers seeing the overseas market just as valuable, if not more, hence a globally successful console would be the priority in most cases: PS4 atm. PC is getting there but still has some way to go. SW is not there and even then needs to prove its receptive to some of these franchises. It has the advantage of being closer to the PS4 than the 3DS was to the PS3 but its still some way behind to an extent where games need to downgraded in ways devs/pubs may not want to.
The idea is Switch/PS4 multiplatform can reach RoW/Japan. It isn't the idea of Switch alone.

...

It is a lot easier than PS4/3DS. It is also easier than PS4/PS3/Vita. Many Japanese PlayStation games are not PS4 exclusive and already are cross-generational.

Yes, this is a decreasing trend. Perhaps Switch missed this boat. But the vast majority of Japanese titles are not out of reach for Switch and I seriously doubt they will become so in the immediate future.

...

Also, I don't think it is good for Japanese game development to become increasingly dependent on consumption in other countries and niche communities in Japan:

This encourages gaming to become increasingly small and incestuous, so to speak. It encourages situations where developers are beholden to small, passionate audiences and where developers increasingly come from those audiences.

See rampant moe pandering, for example.

Moreover, last generation highlighted how Japan can find itself out of step with western audiences and western audiences and developers drove the AAA arms race that many Japanese companies could simply not compete with.

See the current state of most large Japanese publishers with most of their difficulties resulting in failures in the HD space or in transitioning to mobile.

Some are doing better this generation, or rather, doing better right at this moment. I hope that continues. I hope we see the growth of an appreciation for Japanese (and non-Japanese) AA games that don't try to compete with Western AAA games.

As for China...an instructive example would be K Drama, which has, for the better part of a decade depended on expansion into China, while it ignored dwindling relevance in Korea. Cue China going to "war" on RoK cultural imports and the TV stations in Korea having to scramble to remonetize their shows to make money off the dwindling Korean viewership and western streamers. Hopefully they also invest in making their product good again.

No, I think the best way to have a creatively vibrant industry with a steady influx of talent is to have a healthy Japanese domestic market. Perhaps most of the sales come from RoW, but a domestic cushion is quite important imo.

I hope Japanese developers make the most of Switch as a fan of Japanese games.

...

The thing though is a) companies are positioned in a certain way because they want in on that more lucrative worldwide market, which has radically diverged from the domestic market, b) it is unclear how much better their products would do at home even if they were on a Nintendo portable, c) they need not be invested in the health of the dedicated console market at home to be invested in their bottom line (i.e. other business exists (e.g. Konami) as well as mobile and the RoW console market).

The thought is, though, that Switch, in lowering barriers for entry over the previous market leader, makes itself a more attractive diversification option while also allowing for movement of 3DS product to Switch/PS4 product instead of PS4 or mobile product as they might be tempted to do.
 

Gotdatmoney

Member
May 5, 2014
9,913
0
0
COMGnet ranking 2017/10/03

1. (3DS) Pokemon Ultra Sun & Moon - 239pt (combined)
2. (PS4) Monster Hunter World - 120pt (regular only)
3. (PS3) Gran Turismo Sport- 115pt (combined)
4. (NSW) Super Mario Odyssey - 85pt


ain't Mario a little low considering it's out in just 3 weeks ?

people in Niigata pref. don't like italian plumbers ??
It's not going to sell 70% of its ltd at launch. It's not about the opening, it's about the legs. That said, the ope ing is going to be good either way.
 

silpheed-mcd

Member
Oct 30, 2016
462
8
180
COMGnet ranking 2017/10/03

1. (3DS) Pokemon Ultra Sun & Moon - 239pt (combined)
2. (PS4) Monster Hunter World - 120pt (regular only)
3. (PS3) Gran Turismo Sport- 115pt (combined)
4. (NSW) Super Mario Odyssey - 85pt


ain't Mario a little low considering it's out in just 3 weeks ?

people in Niigata pref. don't like italian plumbers ??

Mario 3d

Super mario odyssey switch:
ComG! preorders(24 days left): 85 pt


Super mario 3d world wii u:

ComG! preorders (last day): 66 pt
First week (famitsu): 106.967
LTD: 613.693

Super mario 3d land 3ds:
ComG! preorders (last day): 262 pt
First week: 344.698
LTD: 2.111.490


Super mario galaxy 2 wii:

ComG! preorders (last day): 313 pt
First week: 337.569
LTD: 1.046.696


Super mario galaxy wii:
ComG! preorders (last day): 201 pt
First week: 256.341
LTD: 1.025.664

Super mario sunshine gc:
First week: 280.610
LTD: 789.989

Super mario 64 n64:
First week: 162.111
LTD: 1.646.558



Best ComG! preorders: Super mario galaxy 2 wii

Best first week: Super mario 3d land 3ds

Best LTD: Super mario 3d land 3ds

And don't forget super mario odyssey/switch bundle (not in 85 pt at ComG!)
 
Jun 18, 2015
5,025
0
0
My predictions for tomorrow!!
50k Switch
22k PS4
20k 3DS

Software:
Fire Emblem Warriors 48k(may have legs since isnt the word of mouth pretty good and considered one of the best Musous?)
Pokken Tournament 22k
Mario Kart 8D 14k
Zelda 5k
Arms 7k
Splatoon 2 25k
Monster Hunter XX 6k
Xenoverse 2 4k
 

Moor-Angol

Banned
Aug 26, 2005
4,504
1
0
44
Japan
retrogamesheaven.com
It's not going to sell 70% of its ltd at launch. It's not about the opening, it's about the legs. That said, the ope ing is going to be good either way.

I know that but it's the biggest release on the hottest system in Japan...
undoubtedly it will sell in the long run, sales will be helped by the bundle as it worked for Splatoon 2

and comparisons with previous releases are not very indicative: Switch popularity, hype, sales could be compared with Wii, not 3DS and absolutely not with Wii U

Anyway, I'm NOT saying it won't sell, just actual preorders are a little meh
 

Vena

Member
Sep 2, 2014
16,385
0
0
I am unsure if the Mario Bundle is even "limited" so who knows how many pre-orders are being sunk/masked into that, especially with the current hardware shortages in Japan.
 

casiopao

Member
Jan 27, 2013
7,639
0
440
Mario preorder number will begin rising faster the moment the marketing machine begin doing its work. At the moment, i dont think it had begin airing its TVCM yet there.