Media Create Sales: Week 4, 2013 (Jan 21 - Jan 27)

Sep 23, 2006
5,149
0
1,020
I don't think 2M for NSMBU is guaranteed at all.

I realize that it's a launch game but it's doing sub 7k numbers now with less than 500k sold, so it would need more than 200 weeks selling at 7k to get close to 2M.

It will depend on how fast (and if) Nintendo can turn things around.
NSMBU's roadblock is the high price for the hardware. I'm pretty sure a lot of 2D Mario sales are impulse purchases, but for that to work the price must be right. With that not being the case right now sales are naturally slowing down, but for Mario games that never meant their sales being cut short. NSMBU will sell plenty, the only question is when.
 
Nov 9, 2010
7,784
0
0
A lot of people are expecting the Wii U to fail at reaching GCN-levels. In the end the Wii U is then expected to barely hit 4 million in Japan by these people. Achieving an attach rate of 50% over the lifetime of a console seems a bit outrageous.
reminds me of when people were saying the 3DS would do GCN numbers.
 
Feb 20, 2007
7,957
0
970
Spain
NSMBU's roadblock is the high price for the hardware. I'm pretty sure a lot of 2D Mario sales are impulse purchases, but for that to work the price must be right. With that not being the case right now sales are naturally slowing down, but for Mario games that never meant their sales being cut short. NSMBU will sell plenty, the only question is when.
Well, that's why I say that it depends on when and if they turn things around. 2M is possible but not guaranteed.

There's a point in time when it's too late for a game to start gaining significant momentum, even for a game like NSMB.
 

Road

Member
Jan 21, 2008
7,602
0
0
Brazil
sites.google.com
Dengeki Sales: Jan 21 - Jan 27, 2013 (Week 4)

01. (02) [3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf (Nintendo) - 82,150 / 2,300,277 (-14%)
02. (01) [PS3] DmC: Devil May Cry (Capcom) - 28,646 / 142,946 (-75%)
03. (__) [PSV] Demon Gaze (Kadokawa Games) - 28,491 / 28,491
04. (__) [PSV] Genkai Tokki Monster Monpiece (Compile Heart) - 27,600 / 27,600
05. (33) [3DS] Fantasy Life (Level 5) - 27,214 / 203,467
06. (__) [PS3] Kamisama to Unmei Kakumei no Paradox (Nippon Ichi Software) - 24,919 / 24,919
07. (__) [PSP] Gintama no Sugoroku (Bandai Namco) - 24,305 / 24,305
08. (__) [PS3] Hitman: Absolution (Square Enix) - 22,643 / 22,643
09. (03) [PSP] Digimon Adventure (Bandai Namco) - 13,905 / 54,662 (-66%)
10. (04) [3DS] New Super Mario Bros. 2 (Nintendo) - 12,766 / 1,812,588 (-25%)
11. (06) [3DS] Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate [Best Price!] (Capcom) - 11,117 / 177,600 (-7%)
12. (08) [3DS] Paper Mario: Sticker Star (Nintendo) - 8,933 / 490,987 (-14%)
13. (07) [WIU] New Super Mario Bros. U (Nintendo) - 7,612 / 453,539 (-29%)
14. (05) [3DS] Run For Money Tousouchuu: Shijou Saikyou no Hunter-tachi kara Nigekire! (Bandai Namco) - 7,289 / 430,809 (-41%)
15. (16) [WII] Taiko Drum Master Wii: Chougoukaban (Bandai Namco) - 6,983 / ? (+4%)
16. (__) [PSP] Isshoni Gohan. Portable (Idea Factory) - 6,347 / 6,347
17. (15) [3DS] Taiko Drum Master: Chibi Dragon to Fushigina Orb (Bandai Namco) - 6,028 / ? (-10%)
18. (09) [WIU] Nintendo Land (Nintendo) - 6,017 / 275,010 (-34%)
19. (18) [3DS] Mario Kart 7 (Nintendo) - 5,589 / ? (-11%)
20. (12) [3DS] Magician's Quest: Mahou no Machi (Konami) - 5,283 / 144,359 (-28%)


- Demon Gaze and Monster Monpiece sell-through over 90%.


http://news.dengeki.com/elem/000/000/589/589841/
http://news.dengeki.com/soft/ranking/ranking.html (backup)

Dengeki Sales: Week 03, 2013 (Jan 14 - Jan 20)

Previous Dengeki Posts (Thanks Cap. Smoker!)
2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012
 
Apr 22, 2007
7,423
0
0
Well, that's why I say that it depends on when and if they turn things around. 2M is possible but not guaranteed.

There's a point in time when it's too late for a game to start gaining significant momentum, even for a game like NSMB.
NSMB DS sold 1M in 2007, 1.5 years after the game was released, with yearly hardware sales of 7.1M.
NSMB DS sold 377k in 2008, 2.5 years after the game was released, with yearly hardware sales of 4M.
NSMB DS sold 287k in 2009, 3.5 years after the game was released, with yearly hardware sales of 4M.
NSMB DS sold 355k in 2010, 4.5 years after the game was released, with yearly hardware sales of 2.8M.
NSMB DS sold 254k in 2011, 5.5 years after the game was released, with yearly hardware sales of 650k.
NSMB DS sold 133k in 2012, 6.5 years after the game was released, with yearly hardware sales of 68k.

NSMB WII sold 1.6M in 2010, 1 year after the game was released, with yearly hardware sales of 1.6M.
NSMB WII sold 300k in 2011, 2 years after the game was released, with yearly hardware sales of 900k.
NSMB WII sold 150k in 2012, 3 years after the game was released, with yearly hardware sales of 470k.

I assume WII U will sell at least 900k for the next 5 years, current NSMB U sales = 500k, with yearly sales of 300k, after 5 years it'll be 1.5M.

Total = 2,000,000.

2D Marios are gonna do around 150k at the minimum yearly, despite how bad the hardware sales. With the Wii U just coming out, high console price, userbase still low and with many holiday boosts to come, although a bit of a struggle I don't doubt it'll eventually get there.
 
Apr 18, 2005
18,797
0
0
Well, that's why I say that it depends on when and if they turn things around. 2M is possible but not guaranteed.

There's a point in time when it's too late for a game to start gaining significant momentum, even for a game like NSMB.
Yes, I just expect 1) Wii U to not sell like GameCube or N64 and 2) NSMB U to continue to have significant sales through the lifetime of the console. If someone honestly thinks Wii U is going to sell like GameCube or N64 in Japan in the end, then the issue isn't with their NSMB U estimations.

how much exactly do you expect Wii U to sell in the end?
GC was held down by PS2. There is no PS2 home console this time, so I still expect it to sell > 10m easily by the end. That is dependent on much more than just Nintendo first-party games coming to the system, but I still expect better results for that down the road, too.
.
reminds me of when people were saying the 3DS would do GCN numbers.
Or that PS3 would do GCN numbers.
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Dec 17, 2008
11,738
0
0
New releases {2013.02.07}

[3DS] Dragon Quest VII: Fighters of Eden <RPG> (Square Enix) (¥6.090)
[3DS] PachiPara 3D: Deluxe Umi Monogatari - PachiPro Fuuunroko - Hana Kotou no Shoubushi Tachi <TBL> (Irem Software Engineering) (¥6.090)

[PSV] Romance of the Three Kingdoms 12 <SLG> (Koei Tecmo) (¥8.190)
[PSV] NextRev: Chuushoukigyou Shindanshi Shiken 1 <EDU> (Media-5) (¥4.800)
[PSV] NextRev: Chuushoukigyou Shindanshi Shiken 2 <EDU> (Media-5) (¥4.800)

[PSP] Heroes' Vs <FTG> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥6.280)
[PSP] Suikoden: Tsumugareshi Hyakunen no Toki (PSP the Best) <RPG> (Konami) (¥2.940)

[PS3] Heavy Fire: Shattered Spear <ACT> (Hamster) (¥5.980)
[PS3] Tokyo Jungle (PlayStation 3 the Best) <ADV> (Sony Computer Entertainment) (¥4.980)
[PS3] Metal Gear Solid HD Edition (PlayStation 3 the Best) <ADV> (Konami) (¥3.990)
[PS3] Metal Gear Solid: Peace Walker HD Edition (PlayStation 3 the Best) <ADV> (Konami) (¥3.480)
 
Jun 9, 2012
26,506
0
0
Yes, I just expect 1) Wii U to not sell like GameCube or N64 and 2) NSMB U to continue to have significant sales through the lifetime of the console. If someone honestly thinks Wii U is going to sell like GameCube or N64 in Japan in the end, then the issue isn't with their NSMB U estimations.



.


Or that PS3 would do GCN numbers.
I don't expect it to sell Gamecube numbers. I'm just very cautious of predicting it to easily sell over 10 million when the Wii's collapse showed that unless Nintendo continually produces a range of software for Wii U it is not going to be able to maintain healthy sales throughout the year. And no the Wii U doesn't have the PS2 pushing it down. It has the 3DS which will outsell the PS2.
 
Jun 1, 2005
2,159
0
0
I don't expect it to sell Gamecube numbers. I'm just very cautious of predicting it to easily sell over 10 million when the Wii's collapse showed that unless Nintendo continually produces a range of software for Wii U it is not going to be able to maintain healthy sales throughout the year. And no the Wii U doesn't have the PS2 pushing it down. It has the 3DS which will outsell the PS2.
Yeah, with Pokemon, Dragon Quest, Animal Crossing, Mario and Monster Hunter all staying strong on handhelds for the foreseeable future, it seems like the home console market might be capped at about 20M max for the next gen. It that's the case, then it just comes down to how the WiiU/PS4 split up that number (and there's no guarantee that the total can't even fall below 20M). Of course, Sony/Nintendo always have the possibility of finding a massive breakout hit or two to drive the home consoles, but even with the Wii Sports breakout hit last gen, the home systems still barely broke the 20M threshold.
 
Jun 9, 2012
26,506
0
0
Yeah, with Pokemon, Dragon Quest, Animal Crossing, Mario and Monster Hunter all staying strong on handhelds for the foreseeable future, it seems like the home console market might be capped at about 20M max for the next gen. It that's the case, then it just comes down to how the WiiU/PS4 split up that number (and there's no guarantee that the total can't even fall below 20M). Of course, Sony/Nintendo always have the possibility of finding a massive breakout hit or two to drive the home consoles, but even with the Wii Sports breakout hit last gen, the home systems still barely broke the 20M threshold.
It's possible that with Vita not being a factor we could see large resurgence in home consoles, but there is also a chance that a large part of the market just disappears into spaces not so easily seen or just doesn't buy multiple hardware.
 

Road

Member
Jan 21, 2008
7,602
0
0
Brazil
sites.google.com
Apr 18, 2005
18,797
0
0
I would think it will stabalize right around the 11-12K mark. Under 10K would be suprising to me.
Oh, no. More "stabilization" talk. Wii U = Vita confirmed. :(

Hint: We're still in the typical holiday affected sales period. Usually completely filters out of the equation by late February or so.

Yes, Wii U will smash Vita LTD this year, though. Just not anytime soon. :p