Media Create Sales: Week 41, 2014 (Oct 06 - Oct 12)

Nov 17, 2011
4,152
0
0
In case it wasn't clear, I'm talking about its current performance in Japan, new revision launch week notwithstanding.
It might end up over 3M for the year with a whole host of big guns fired to get it there.

Further to that, no one's going to give a toss in two years time that the PS4 has to date, from memory, sold faster than the PS2. And so on and so forth.
You're still not clear enough... ;]

zisismcthread.gif
 
Jan 27, 2013
7,639
0
0
In case it wasn't clear, I'm talking about its current performance in Japan, new revision launch week notwithstanding.
It might end up over 3M for the year with a whole host of big guns fired to get it there.

Further to that, no one's going to give a toss in two years time that the PS4 has to date, from memory, sold faster than the PS2. And so on and so forth.
I thought PS4 is doing worst than Dreamcast allign?
 
Oct 10, 2007
4,117
0
0
www.wiitalia.it
In case it wasn't clear, I'm talking about its current performance in Japan, new revision launch week notwithstanding.
It might end up over 3M for the year with a whole host of big guns fired to get it there.

Further to that, no one's going to give a toss in two years time that the PS4 has to date, from memory, sold faster than the PS2. And so on and so forth.
Which must be considered a great result, since a lot of people were thinking that 3DS would have sold 1,5-2m this year, with PSV taking the lead (just read early 2014 MC threads).

Up to now the "nintendo handheld family" offers a good range of purhcase options (that I think will stay as a relevant strategy in their business): from 119$ to 199$ I think. Yes, we coudl argue that a 99$ (for the 2DS?) could be a better price positioning, I agree.
But I think that a 20$ price cut would not change so much.
Technically, 2DS is still $/€129,99. Point is, 2DS is an inferior version that should not directly compete with 3DS. 2DS should be a $/€99,99 hardware, in my opinion, and all versions should be €/$30 cheaper. Entry price is an issue when games cost a lot as well (most popular games across kids are also expensive, see Skylanders), and previous Nintendo handheld platforms were cheaper to begin with. It might not the only factor, but it surely plays a role.
 
May 6, 2012
6,479
0
470
Zurich, Switzerland
So it looks like that Kyoutou Gakuen (The co-op hunting game thing with the teacher and the students) promotion campaign that Sony has been doing the past year for Vita is coming to an end and the final one will be broadcast on the 24th this month.

The strange thing is the final game they will be promoting is Destiny on PS4, and also says that it won't be a ending but a new beginning. Could Sony be shifting over their promotion from Vita > PS4 from now on in Japan?
Most likely, yeah. We've seen it on TGS already.
 
Dec 13, 2013
3,022
0
0
I disagree that 3DS is showing us the peak for a handheld console in this day and age. Fact is, the console simply doesn't have enough games and the hardware (especially the low res screen) isn't up to par, and that's why the console is struggling over seas.
The Vita with its high res screen was such a huge success...

The 3DS doesn't have enough games? Hilarious comment :)

There will never be a dedicated gaming handheld more successful than the 3DS. The next Nintendo handheld will probably be a mixture between console controller and handheld.
 
Jul 28, 2012
26,651
0
0
So it looks like that Kyoutou Gakuen (The co-op hunting game thing with the teacher and the students) promotion campaign that Sony has been doing the past year for Vita is coming to an end and the final one will be broadcast on the 24th this month.

The strange thing is the final game they will be promoting is Destiny on PS4, and also says that it won't be a ending but a new beginning. Could Sony be shifting over their promotion from Vita > PS4 from now on in Japan?
As they should be. They are probably preparing for early 2015 which seems like the best time for an advertising blitz about PS4.
 
Nov 13, 2011
16,595
0
0
Which must be considered a great result, since a lot of people were thinking that 3DS would have sold 1,5-2m this year, with PSV taking the lead (just read early 2014 MC threads).
I don't really know how unrealistic expectations about the PSV have anything to do with assessing the 3DS. And yes, the situation was looking a lot worse prior to the announcement and release of a revision.

But it's still looking at another significant sequential annual decline. You want to call it great, I guess that's your prerogative.

And again, the point of my posts was the wider context. It's doing great in Japan, okay, we'll go with that for the sake of discussion... if we're looking at Japan in isolation while ignoring how it fits into the bigger picture for the system's sales and for Nintendo as a whole.
 
Oct 10, 2007
4,117
0
0
www.wiitalia.it
Really? A LOT OF people said that in these threads?

Can you quote those users? I want to have a laugh.
Don't have time, sorry.

I remember reading some discussions developing on the fact that 3DS was selling like shit in 2014 (it averaged around 25-30k during some periods) and PSV even surpassed it in some occasions (the hashtag "champion", "beastmode", and such). So for some people it was clear that 3DS was going to decline around 50% of the previous year.

No Pokémon was announced yet, Youkai Watch was yet to become such a phenomenon, New 3DS / XL wasn't that predictable, and Super Smash Bros. wasn't seen as the hit it became. The feeling was that 3DS was going to massively drop this year,
 
Nov 17, 2011
4,152
0
0
And again, the point of my posts was the wider context. It's doing great in Japan, okay, we'll go with that for the sake of discussion... if we're looking at Japan in isolation while ignoring how it fits into the bigger picture for the system's sales and for Nintendo as a whole.
Ah ah ah ! "for the sake of discussion"... Do you confirm reality, at least for the sake of discussion...? You're using a curious wording here.

I understand the point of your post, not your point about 3DS in Japan. Nobody is discussing (disagreeing with your statement) its weak western performance, but it's not a reason to lowball its Jp performance as you're doing.
 
Jan 27, 2013
7,639
0
0
The only bit that wasn't true was the Knack mention. The rest is technically true, even if the presentation was somewhat 'massaged'.

It remains to be seen if 2014 > 2013 for Vita though. Fingers crossed.
Well, 3DS is already falling behind 2013 so yeah u are correct lol.

And I am sure that Vita 2014 is going to do well right? After holiday is coming.
 
Nov 13, 2011
16,595
0
0
Ah ah ah ! "for the sake of discussion"... Do you confirm reality, at least for the sake of discussion...? You're using a curious wording here.

I understand the point of your post, not your point about 3DS in Japan. Nobody is discussing (disagreeing with your statement) its weak western performance, but it's not a reason to lowball its Jp performance as you're doing.
I don't consider it great. I consider it's YTD okay. Prior to the announcement and release of a revision it's performance was frankly pretty poor even if it was the only system with signs of life. If it reaches 3M for the year, I could perhaps consider it good. It's still another sequential annual decline. It's still the worst year the system has had. Even if we're looking at Japan in isolation.

Is that okay with you? Or do I need to conform to your thinking?
 
Nov 17, 2011
4,152
0
0
I don't consider it great. I consider it's YTD okay. Prior to the announcement and release of a revision it's performance was frankly pretty poor even if it was the only system with signs of life. If it reaches 3M for the year, I could perhaps consider it good. It's still another sequential annual decline. It's still the worst year the system has had. Even if we're looking at Japan in isolation.

Is that okay with you? Or do I need to conform to your thinking?
Bolded is useless, I'm not you.

You're the one rightfully highligting how the market has evolved (smartphone f2p etc...) and I fully agree.
Given this hypercompetitive context, given how the smartphone market is strong and well structured in Japan (with big players/publishers), given the 3DS is soon entering in its fourth year, given it's able to have several million sellers/year (first & 3rd party), given the new revision seems to be performing well (if not great), given how OG 3DS is performing (weak) overseas..., yes, with this context in mind, as of today it's doing more than just ok, or well "for the sake of the discussion", in Japan (et en France aussi) it's doing great.

I'm ready to downgrade to just "well" if you agree to upgrade your "okay" and we'll be done.
 
May 19, 2005
12,889
1
1,145
United Kingdom
I don't consider it great. I consider it's YTD okay. Prior to the announcement and release of a revision it's performance was frankly pretty poor even if it was the only system with signs of life. If it reaches 3M for the year, I could perhaps consider it good. It's still another sequential annual decline. It's still the worst year the system has had. Even if we're looking at Japan in isolation.

Is that okay with you? Or do I need to conform to your thinking?
Note that 3M is not dramatically less than peak years of PS2, GBA and PSP (two of them 20m+ selling devices). By any other metric it won't be "perhaps" good but certainly good, if not great. I think when you've already had a 15m userbase, in Japan, in the first couple of years then your worst year is perhaps just around the corner. The 3DS much like the DS (and the Wii but it is a more dramatic example) had its highs very early compared to most other systems -- with more stable sales curves -- and I think that's why YOY comparisons tend to be overstated in its case, because we're looking at a different kind of sales curve. When the DS went through a similar decline in 2008 (from 2007 which was also a decline from 2006) we had the DSi but that still didn't stop the obvious decline. It's simply a natural and expected decline. Do people seriously think years like 2012/2013 are sustainable in Japan? That'd be unprecedented.
 
Apr 22, 2007
7,423
0
0
How do you know that? Nintendo had shipped 16,15M until the end of June.
Usually systems drop hard leading up to revisions, 3ds didn't really experience this, not sure what Nintendo's shipments up to june says anything about this situation.

Either way, all i'm saying is that the old models are probably nearly gone, there's no real reason for Nintendo to prolong or overship the old models once they had plans for the revision.

Yes, but you still need to pay $5 to upgrade to the PS4 edition.

My bundle suggestion is not serious, and Sony is not serious about PS4 in Japan this holiday season. But if they do one, Minecraft should be free. Make a bundle with CODAW as well while they are it. But most importantly, don't make them exclusive to their stupid online store (although I wonder if they're doing that because retailers refuse to stock any more PS4).
I think a PS4 bundle would push more systems than anything released for it so far.
 
Sep 1, 2013
7,582
0
0
I doubt it. Getting the game streaming would be easy enough from the looks of things but DQX has legibility issues with the UI and that was designed for 480p originally. FFXIV was made with much higher resolutions in mind.
Not too much higher, it seems ARR is only 544p on PS3.

DQX's 3DS legibility was something SE was said to be working on so we should probably see how that goes. I'm not sure why UI elements don't get pushed to the touchscreen but maybe there's logistics issues with streaming that data separately. The planned Android/iOS streaming service for FFXIII and other games might be something to look at too.
 
Nov 13, 2011
16,595
0
0
Bolded is useless, I'm not you.

You're the one rightfully highligting how the market has evolved (smartphone f2p etc...) and I fully agree.
Given this hypercompetitive context, given how the smartphone market is strong and well structured in Japan (with big players/publishers), given the 3DS is soon entering in its fourth year, given it's able to have several million sellers/year (first & 3rd party), given the new revision seems to be performing well (if not great), given how OG 3DS is performing (weak) overseas..., yes, with this context in mind, as of today it's doing more than just ok, or well "for the sake of the discussion", in Japan (et en France aussi) it's doing great.

I'm ready to downgrade to just "well" if you agree to upgrade your "okay" and we'll be done.
It's somewhat bemusing how often discussion becomes purely semantic. Given all that local context as a qualifier sure, it's selling well if you prefer. I don't really draw a huge distinction between well and okay; although I guess the the latter is more along the lines of well enough or pretty good.

And it's all still peripheral to the point I was trying to make anyway, which is that selling well in Japan isn't really enough - it needs to be selling more than however one chooses to describe its performance, given the even broader context of its importance to Nintendo's financial position, the failure of their other product category everywhere, and other geographies under-performance/decline.
 
Mar 22, 2007
23,613
2
1,000
3DS vs. DS
Code:
week 190 -  16,582,153  /  22,916,955    -6,334,802
Thanks.


It always striked me how people can use a clear market anomaly to conclude aynthing about 3DS performance. Nintendo itself didn't understand how lighting in a bottle DS was, so I guess that's part of the reaons people believed 3DS could reach predecessor's height. Putting some perspective, though, 3DS is the second fastest-selling console ever in Japan.
Its common to do comparisons to other things. Its not really right or wrong in that sense. I cant recall seeing anyone saying that the 3DS sales in total in Japan are bad though. I think i've only seen mention of it being worse than the DS.
 
May 19, 2005
12,889
1
1,145
United Kingdom
It's somewhat bemusing how often discussion becomes purely semantic. Given all that local context as a qualifier sure, it's selling well if you prefer. I don't really draw a huge distinction between well and okay; although I guess the the latter is more along the lines of well enough or pretty good.

And it's all still peripheral to the point I was trying to make anyway, which is that selling well in Japan isn't really enough - it needs to be selling more than however one chooses to describe its performance, given the even broader context of its importance to Nintendo's financial position, the failure of their other product category everywhere, and other geographies under-performance/decline.
And I think most can agree to that. Though there's the danger to misevaluate sales in a specific market because you're looking at the broader context. Basically the problem is elsewhere, and not necessarily in Japan. When sales for the DS/DSi dropped in Japan they were more than compensated for with growth in the West. The opposite is happening with the 3DS so the decline in Japan appears even more visible.
 
Nov 17, 2011
4,152
0
0
It's somewhat bemusing how often discussion becomes purely semantic. Given all that local context as a qualifier sure, it's selling well if you prefer. I don't really draw a huge distinction between well and okay; although I guess the the latter is more along the lines of well enough or pretty good.

And it's all still peripheral to the point I was trying to make anyway, which is that selling well in Japan isn't really enough - it needs to be selling more than however one chooses to describe its performance, given the even broader context of its importance to Nintendo's financial position, the failure of their other product category everywhere, and other geographies under-performance/decline.
It's so hard to aknowledge 3DS is doing good in Japan that you need to resort to these sort of discursive tactics?

You know, sometime it's easy, really, you just need to let it go, like I do: despite its great results in a hypercompetitive market, 3DS Jp results won't offset the global handheld decline because selling well in Japan is not really enough.

I think you won't find many people to disagree with this in this thread.
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Dec 17, 2008
11,738
0
0
Usually systems drop hard leading up to revisions, 3ds didn't really experience this, not sure what Nintendo's shipments up to june says anything about this situation.

Either way, all i'm saying is that the old models are probably nearly gone, there's no real reason for Nintendo to prolong or overship the old models once they had plans for the revision.
It means that unless you have access to Nintendo shipments you have no idea how much they shipped 4 months after June untl new 3DS launch and if it will take 1-2 weeks or 1-2 months for the remaining stock to be cleared.
 
Nov 13, 2011
16,595
0
0
I really don't know what your issue is. It's good. It's well. It's okay. It was entirely peripheral to the point being made.
Basically the problem is elsewhere, and not necessarily in Japan.
I'd say the problem is everywhere including Japan, though. Namely substitution, and the gradual saturation of the market that remains. Prior to the revision, the outlook wasn't optimistic although I recall some maintain that a natural saturation effect isn't a given. We'll see in coming weeks and months how much of a stopgap the revision will be in stemming decline due to the above issues.

Also negative contextual factors have been mentioned, but there are positive ones often not considered. The dedicated market in Japan consolidated towards handhelds over the last generation or so, and the 3DS has further consolidated that market given its capturing of key third party brands. It's probably worthwhile to incorporate that context too in assessing current performance, relative historical performance etc.
Okay I'm a bit lost at this point. What are we debating exactly?
My use of the word okay, apparently.
 
Oct 10, 2007
4,117
0
0
www.wiitalia.it
So, in the last few weeks, 3DS received a lot of support in terms of niche games, something that sometimes was stressed to be lackluster; they mostly are slated for 2015:

  • Assassination Classroom: Grand Siege on Kurosense! from Bandai Namco
  • Kuroko’s Basketball: Ties to the Future from Bandai Namco
  • The Seven Deadly Sins: Unjust Sin from Bandai Namco
  • Rilakkuma Nakayoshi Collection from Rocket Company
  • Doraemon: Nobita’s Space Hero Record of Space Heroes from FuRyu
  • Terra Formars: Akaki Hoshi no Gekitō from FuRyu
  • Dora English from Shogakukan
 
Aug 4, 2005
2,174
0
1,125
Okay I'm a bit lost at this point. What are we debating exactly?
If 3DS is selling great, well, ok or bad in Japan. And if there's much stock left of the old 3DS models in Japan.

And now... Will Smash Bros 3DS beat Smash Bros Brawl LTD this year? (2.4 million unless it has sold more this past weeks lingering in the low positions of the charts). I think it'll be reaaaaally close
 
I disagree that 3DS is showing us the peak for a handheld console in this day and age. Fact is, the console simply doesn't have enough games and the hardware (especially the low res screen) isn't up to par, and that's why the console is struggling over seas. Look at how small the 3DS section is at most retail outlets. There aren't enough software releases to justify big shelf space. As well as the $40 price point for software which is too high for a handheld gaming console. It's doing fine in Japan because Nintendo and Handheld, but in the rest of the world these problems are very clear and very obvious.
The 3DS section of EBGames/BestBuy/WalMart/target is the same as the DS one in its prime.

Handhelds never had a big shelf space anyway.
 

Aostia

El Capitan Todd
Sep 2, 2011
18,552
3
0
So, in the last few weeks, 3DS received a lot of support in terms of niche games, something that sometimes was stressed to be lackluster; they mostly are slated for 2015:

  • Assassination Classroom: Grand Siege on Kurosense! from Bandai Namco
  • Kuroko’s Basketball: Ties to the Future from Bandai Namco
  • The Seven Deadly Sins: Unjust Sin from Bandai Namco
  • Rilakkuma Nakayoshi Collection from Rocket Company
  • Doraemon: Nobita’s Space Hero Record of Space Heroes from FuRyu
  • Terra Formars: Akaki Hoshi no Gekitō from FuRyu
  • Dora English from Shogakukan
I think it's good to keep a steady weekly pace.
Now, for 2015 what is completely missing are the "big guns".
Also because, apart from DQ, everyone already released all theirs (SE could still launch DQ Monster or even DQXI); maybe we cuold see YW3, Pokemon Z, another "Puzzle and Dragon" game? We could see some other sequel in middle range sellers (Fire Embelm? Another Mario Land?) but up to now it's hard to imagine another list of million sellers for 3DS.
 
So, in the last few weeks, 3DS received a lot of support in terms of niche games, something that sometimes was stressed to be lackluster; they mostly are slated for 2015:

  • Assassination Classroom: Grand Siege on Kurosense! from Bandai Namco
  • Kuroko’s Basketball: Ties to the Future from Bandai Namco
  • The Seven Deadly Sins: Unjust Sin from Bandai Namco
  • Rilakkuma Nakayoshi Collection from Rocket Company
  • Doraemon: Nobita’s Space Hero Record of Space Heroes from FuRyu
  • Terra Formars: Akaki Hoshi no Gekitō from FuRyu
  • Dora English from Shogakukan
Personally I tend to feel what's missing is the same thing that's missing in the West, namely mid-tier titles.

Like here's a full list of everything that has done between 100,000 and 500,000 copies so far this year:



This is a list of 12 titles (I included downloadable here for Trozei since I felt it was primarily a DL title, but excluded it from all other categories to be more favorable to mid-tier games/against the argument I'm making). Of these titles, five (we'll count Taiko which is 197K) are above 200K, and one is above 400K.

By comparison:
-There are 29 games with LTDs below 100,000 excluding downloadable titles and ultimate hits.
-There are 5 games above 500K (with three being above 1 million, and one above 2 million).

Now, there's still a lot of time for releases given the holiday season is coming up, but this is the area I feel is getting dry. The mid-tier games seem to be fading in the same way we see it fading in the West between the blockbuster releases and downloadable indie titles.

That's what also stuck out to be about the TGS announcement window for the 3DS. We have a lot of almost assured super successes (especially given that shouldn't be a very high number anyway realistically), and a lot of really small titles, but how many of these are going to be over 100K? How about 200K or higher?

This is not a problem exclusive to the 3DS certainly, but I think it's part of the market that leaves people who bought those games feeling a bit left out, and I think that extends worldwide to dedicated devices in general.
 
Oct 10, 2007
4,117
0
0
www.wiitalia.it
Mid-tier games are less and less on traditional hardware, this is true.

You have also to consider that many 3DS reached the 100k mark after a year or so, because they tend to have legs. Some of those <100k sellers will reach the mark during the holiday season.
 
Mid-tier games are less and less on traditional hardware, this is true.

You have also to consider that many 3DS reached the 100k mark after a year or so, because they tend to have legs. Some of those <100k sellers will reach the mark during the holiday season.
To me the biggest glaring gap is as we go up above 200K and into the million sellers.

This is the complete list so far:

200K:
-Yoshi's New Island: 207,456
-Story of Seasons: 220,599
-Persona Q: 246,590

300K
-Nothing

400K:
-Mario Party: Island Tour: 433,980

500K:
-Nothing

600K:
-Kirby: Triple Deluxe: 650,068

700K:
-Dragon Quest Monsters 2: 739,032

800K:
-Nothing

900K:
-Nothing

1000K:
-Nothing

1100K:
-Nothing

1200K:
-Nothing

1300K:
-Nothing

1400K:
-Nothing

1500K:
-Nothing

1600K:
-Monster Hunter: 1,617,949 (first week only)
-Smash Bros: 1,621,464

Is there anything that will speculatively slot into this list? I mean Smash and Monster Hunter will move up a lot, and presumably Yokai Watch 2: Expac will get up into the millions as well, but for the other tiers especially.

Final Fantasy Explorers seems like a good bet, and Taiko should do well in the holiday season.

My other concern would be where the staff who made the mid-tier games went, where I feel like I've felt a lot of them show up in mobile, seen decline, or been merged into mega teams, but I'll have to wait until later today to have enough time to do the research necessary.
 
Oct 10, 2007
4,117
0
0
www.wiitalia.it
To me the biggest glaring gap is as we go up above 200K and into the million sellers.

This is the complete list so far:

200K:
-Derby Stallion Gold, since the last one sold +350k on DS
-Aikatsu! 365 Idol Days, last year's entry sold 250k on 3DS
-One Piece: Super Grand Battle! X, though it didn't start well in preorders
-Final Fantasy Explorers
-Fossil Fighters: Frontier
-Dragon Ball Heroes: Ultimate Mission 2
-Pokémon Art Academy
-Story of Seasons: 220,599
-Persona Q: 246,590

300K
-Yoshi's New Island

400K:
-Taiko Drum Master 3DS 2, since the game always has great sales and this one is doing in line with the previous one on 3DS

500K:
-Mario Party: Island Tour if not 600k thanks to holiday sales

600K:
-

700K:
-


800K:
-Kirby: Triple Deluxe
-Dragon Quest Monsters 2

900K:
-Nothing

1000K:
-Nothing

1100K:
-Nothing

1200K:
-Nothing

1300K:
-Nothing

1400K:
-Nothing

1500K:
-Nothing

1600K:
-Monster Hunter: 1,617,949 (first week only)
-Smash Bros: 1,621,464

Is there anything that will speculatively slot into this list? I mean Smash and Monster Hunter will move up a lot, and presumably Yokai Watch 2: Expac will get up into the millions as well, but for the other tiers especially.

Final Fantasy Explorers seems like a good bet, and Taiko should do well in the holiday season.
I added some games that might fill those slots. Of course, there are many evergreen games that might end up there as well.

My other concern would be where the staff who made the mid-tier games went, where I feel like I've felt a lot of them show up in mobile, seen decline, or been merged into mega teams, but I'll have to wait until later today to have enough time to do the research necessary.
Mainly mobile games, imo.
 
Sep 1, 2013
7,582
0
0
For potential future 3DS 100k+ sellers I'd consider:
Aikatsu! 365 Idol Days (Bandai Namco)
Attack on Titain: Last Wings of Mankind Chain (Spike Chunsoft)
Bravely Second (Square Enix)
Codename S.T.E.A.M. (Nintendo)
Derby Stallion Gold (Enterbrain)
Etrian Odyssey II Untold: The Fafnir Knight (Atlus)
Final Fantasy Explorers (Square Enix)
Great Detective Pikachu (Pokémon)
Hatsune Miku Project Mirai Deluxe (Sega)
Hero Bank 2 (Sega)
Kenka Bancho 6: Blood & Soul (Spike Chunsoft)
One Piece: Super Grand Battle! X (Bandai Namco)
Pokémon Omega Ruby / Alpha Sapphire (Pokémon)
PoPoLoCrois Story of Seasons (Marvelous)
Samurai Warriors Chronicles 3 (Koei Tecmo)
Tales of the World: Rev Unitia (Bandai Namco)
The Great Ave Attorney (Capcom)
The Legend of Legacy (FuRyu)
Xenoblade Chronicles 3D (Nintendo)
Yo-Kai Watch 2 Shuinuki (Level 5)

And potential 100k+ downloads:
Diffusion Million Arthur (Square Enix)
Killca Drive (Aplus)
3D Final Fantasy I (Square Enix)