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[Jonnyram]

The fact that MH3G is outdoing the preorders of the original is something even Comgnet tells us.

At the same distance from the release, in fact...

MH3G - 626pt
MH3 - 483pt

Yeah, and what about MHP3rd?
I don't think the comparison to Tri says much.

 

[cw_sasuke]

Yeah, and what about MHP3rd?
I don't think the comparison to Tri says much.

TriG Sales will be more in line with Tri sales and Capcoms expectations - so Tri is probably the best comparison.

 

[frankie_baby]

Yeah, and what about MHP3rd?
I don't think the comparison to Tri says much.

Are you really gonna think there's gonna be any comparison with 3rd? Seriously there's less than 2 and a half million 3ds owners now even the most bat shit optimistic predictions don't think there'll be 5 million 3ds by the end of the year, there were something like 16 million psp when 3rd launched there is on way 3g preorders could be in the the same planet as 3rd

 

[airmangataosenai]

TriG Sales will be more in line with Tri sales and Capcoms expectations - so Tri is probably the best comparison.

I can't imagine them accepting Tri-level sales. Obviously the userbase will hold the game back but if the game doesn't end up selling 2+ million it's going to have a huge negative impact on Capcom's fiscal year results. Like, 50-80% decline negative.

Did they really say they only expect it to sell in line with Tri Wii though? That's surprising.

 

[Dash Kappei]

Just noticed... Lol wth is this?!

I mean, did they put a fully italian title for the game there? Really?!

L'italiano rulla, l'hanno capito pure loro ormai, mi pare anche giusto

 

[Erethian]

I can't imagine them accepting Tri-level sales. Obviously the userbase will hold the game back but if the game doesn't end up selling 2+ million it's going to have a huge negative impact on Capcom's fiscal year results. Like, 50-80% decline negative.

Did they really say they only expect it to sell in line with Tri Wii though? That's surprising.

For the fiscal year ending March 31st, yeah. 1.2 million shipped.

 

[frankie_baby]

I can't imagine them accepting Tri-level sales. Obviously the userbase will hold the game back but if the game doesn't end up selling 2+ million it's going to have a huge negative impact on Capcom's fiscal year results. Like, 50-80% decline negative.

Did they really say they only expect it to sell in line with Tri Wii though? That's surprising.

They said they expect 1.2 million by the end of the financial year, depending on stock levels I'm thinking that'll be a very conservative estimate, it won't sell anywhere like what 3rd did but this is basically the set up title to establish the series on a new platform and I don't think capcom will mind at all if 3g finishes up on only 2 million or so, monster hunter 4 is where they will expect the big sales

 

[Mpl90]

I can't imagine them accepting Tri-level sales. Obviously the userbase will hold the game back but if the game doesn't end up selling 2+ million it's going to have a huge negative impact on Capcom's fiscal year results. Like, 50-80% decline negative.

Did they really say they only expect it to sell in line with Tri Wii though? That's surprising.

They expect 1.2 millions to be shipped until March 2012... But Capcom has insane expectations, in both ways.
This time, I'm feeling they're too conservative.

 

[Nuclear Muffin]

Yeah, and what about MHP3rd?
I don't think the comparison to Tri says much.

You have to remember that the 3DS userbase is still too small for Tri G's sales to come close to MHP3rd.

 

[cw_sasuke]

They expect 1.2 millions to be shipped until March 2012... But Capcom has insane expectations, in both ways.
This time, I'm feeling they're too conservative.

They got burned last time on wii, I can understand why they would be more conservative this time - though I would be suprised if their shipments would be less than 1.5-2 million this fiscal year.

 

[frankie_baby]

They got burned last time on wii, I can understand why they would be more conservative this time - though I would be suprised if their shipments would be less than 1.5-2 million this fiscal year.

ONly slightly burned though they expected 1.5 million in Japan and 0.5 million for the rest of the world, and ended up with something like 1.1 million in Japan and 0.8 in the rest of the world

 

[mclem]

[Wii] The Legend of Zelda Sword Ward Sky (with a special CD) - 71pt

So near and yet so far.

 

[ollin]

They got burned last time on wii, I can understand why they would be more conservative this time - though I would be suprised if their shipments would be less than 1.5-2 million this fiscal year.

Isn't this the reason why we don't get first day numbers any more? Or was it a Nintendo game.

 

[mclem]

Do we have any reasonable idea for how many 3DSes are on store shelves at the moment? I'm curious if shortages are going to be a factor.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

3DS Hardware Predictions
There are also 3 people making predictions for 3DS hardware sales in November-December. One guy from SMBC Nikko Securities thinks that 3DS can potentially sell 2.0-2.5 million in 2 months. Expects Mario 3D Land, Mario Kart 7 and MH3G to perform strongly. Zelda SS and Just Dance Wii will be the Wii's big titles to pay attention to.

Someone from Bic Camera in Yurakucho (Tokyo) has more realistic predictions of around 1 million and expects MH3G to do very well because of the big sales of the PSP games and the fact that Tri G preorders have exceeded MH3 Wii pre-orders by quite a margin. Inazuma Eleven Go is also expected to do well.

Finally, a professor from Ritsumeikan University thinks 3DS hardware will sell around 1 million. The first 4 months of the system saw sales of 1.3 million. For systems like PSP, first year November sales usually rise by 1.3-1.6 times, while December ranges from 3.5 to 5.76 times the normal amount. That leaves 200K in November and 800K in December for 3DS (a rough estimate). He also expects the 2 Mario games, MH3G and Inazuma Eleven Go to surpass 500K each.

So two of these guys think 3DS will be performing like DS or PSP last year?

 

[frankie_baby]

So two of these guys think 3DS will be performing like DS or PSP last year?

Oh my god, that's just made their predictions not just seem bad but laughably bad

 

[Gianni Merryman]

Are you really gonna think there's gonna be any comparison with 3rd? Seriously there's less than 2 and a half million 3ds owners now even the most bat shit optimistic predictions don't think there'll be 5 million 3ds by the end of the year, there were something like 16 million psp when 3rd launched there is on way 3g preorders could be in the the same planet as 3rd

On the other hand, when Monster Hunter portable 2 launched PSP's userbase was something in the range of 4 to 5 millions, that shouldn't be too far from what 3DS userbase may amost probably be like in a month time - that's to say from a 2.5 minimum to 3milions and over.

 

[king zell]

On the other hand, when Monster Hunter portable 2 launched PSP's userbase was something in the range of 4 to 5 millions, that shouldn't be too far from what 3DS userbase may amost probably be like in a month time - that's to say from a 2.5 minimum to 3milions and over.

it did that in the long run with alot of releases, capcom in only talking about this fiscal year.

 

[Cosmonaut X]

TriG is going to be an interesting one to watch, as there's really no good comparison.

You could look for comparisons to MHP which released on a similar userbase (2.3 million, IIRC?) but that wouldn't take into account the huge growth in popularity of the series.

You could look at the sales of Tri, but that doesn't take into account that that game released on a home platform rather than handheld.

You could look at sales of more recent entries, like MHP3rd, but that doesn't take into account the massive disparity in current PSP/current 3DS userbase.

etc. etc.

I'd be disappointed if it performed worse than MHP2nd in its first week, as I think the growth of the series and the size of the userbase at the time should let it break through 750k without much difficulty. Eventual LTD sales in the region of MHP2nd? Perhaps, though I think anything above Capcom's projections would be a good result.

Whatever happens, I suspect we'll have a good few "3DS doomed" stories when the game (inevitably) doesn't sell as well as 3rd on the mature PSP userbase, but hey-ho...

 

[Jonnyram]

Are you really gonna think there's gonna be any comparison with 3rd? Seriously there's less than 2 and a half million 3ds owners now even the most bat shit optimistic predictions don't think there'll be 5 million 3ds by the end of the year, there were something like 16 million psp when 3rd launched there is on way 3g preorders could be in the the same planet as 3rd

But what was the Wii userbase when Tri came out? And is userbase important, considering MH is the only game to sell more than a million on PSP, and consistently at that?

 

[Nuclear Muffin]

TriG is going to be an interesting one to watch, as there's really no good comparison.

You could look for comparisons to MHP which released on a similar userbase (2.3 million, IIRC?) but that wouldn't take into account the huge growth in popularity of the series.

You could look at the sales of Tri, but that doesn't take into account that that game released on a home platform rather than handheld.

You could look at sales of more recent entries, like MHP3rd, but that doesn't take into account the massive disparity in current PSP/current 3DS userbase.

etc. etc.

I'd be disappointed if it performed worse than MHP2nd in its first week, as I think the growth of the series and the size of the userbase at the time should let it break through 750k without much difficulty. Eventual LTD sales in the region of MHP2nd? Perhaps, though I think anything above Capcom's projections would be a good result.

Whatever happens, I suspect we'll have a good few "3DS doomed" stories when the game (inevitably) doesn't sell as well as 3rd on the mature PSP userbase, but hey-ho...

Agreed. There's no easy way to compare it to past MH games, but it'll do well and will surpass Capcom's expectations (but it won't stop people from saying that the 3DS is doomed when it doesn't outsell MHP3rd)

 

[Turrican3]

L'italiano rulla, l'hanno capito pure loro ormai, mi pare anche giusto

Eh, con 'sta crisi che incombe ci consoliamo in qualche modo a livello internazionale XD

 

[frankie_baby]

But what was the Wii userbase when Tri came out? And is userbase important, considering MH is the only game to sell more than a million on PSP, and consistently at that?

If I remember right the Wii was about 7 million when tri came out and then it launched at about five or six hundred thousand now at least at comgnet preorders for 3g are far out pacing those of tri so we could hope to assume it should launch noticably higher

 

[Jonnyram]

If I remember right the Wii was about 7 million when tri came out and then it launched at about five or six hundred thousand now at least at comgnet preorders for 3g are far out pacing those of tri so we could hope to assume it should launch noticably higher

So why not compare it to 3rd, just for kicks?
It's the same series after all, and if you are trying to gauge how well something will sell, the preorders from the PSP game may act as a good indication, surely?

 

[Cosmonaut X]

BTW - for reference (and correct my figures if they're off, please). Game/First Week/Hardware LTD at time of release:

MHP - 114k - 2.2 million
MHP2nd - 746k - 4.9 million
MHP2G - 823k - 8.7 million
MHTri - 582k - 8.2 million
MHP3rd - 2.1million - 16 million

 

[frankie_baby]

So why not compare it to 3rd, just for kicks?
It's the same series after all, and if you are trying to gauge how well something will sell, the preorders from the PSP game may act as a good indication, surely?

3rd launched to a higher number than the entire current 3ds userbase and probably more than what the 3ds userbase will be by the time 3g launches (I can't remember exactly how much 3rd sold at launch) so it really is a pointless comparison

Edit - ah I was slightly off with my assumption of what 3rd launched at I thought it was about 3 millionish but even 2.1 million my first point still stands, that is the whole of the current 3ds userbase

 

[Cosmonaut X]

3rd launched to a higher number than the entire current 3ds userbase and probably more than what the 3ds userbase will be by the time 3g launches (I can't remember exactly how much 3rd sold at launch) so it really is a pointless comparison

I think anyone expecting anything close to 3rd's FW sales is utterly crazy - it would mean selling to something like, what, 80-90% of the system's userbase on its first day (obviously depending on how much the system sells between now and launch of TriG). I don't know of any game that has managed that, even at launch of a new console.

 

[frankie_baby]

BTW - for reference (and correct my figures if they're off, please). Game/First Week/Hardware LTD at time of release:

MHP - 114k - 2.2 million
MHP2nd - 746k - 4.9 million
MHP2G - 823k - 8.7 million
MHTri - 582k - 8.2 million
MHP3rd - 2.1million - 16 million

Interesting, so the one with the highest attach rate at launch was 2nd

 

[Gianni Merryman]

I wouldn't underestimate how good MH3G bundles could perform, I can easily see them selling like hot cakes.

Two differents(technically more than two) bundles are going to be released IIRC, one with a limited white 3DS with MH marks drawn on it, the other one including the second analog add-on.

Should the bundles be convenient, that's to say cheaper than buying separetely 3DS + MH3G, it could make a pretty good selling point for whoever hasn't purchased a 3DS yet.

Speaking of which, do anyone know what are MH3G exstimated shipments like?
I am also curious about what Mario Land's initial shipment.

 

[frankie_baby]

I wouldn't underestimate how good MH3G bundles could perform, I can easily see them selling like hot cakes.

Two differents(technically more than two) bundles are going to be released IIRC, one with a limited white 3DS with MH marks drawn on it, the other one including the second analog add-on.

Should the bundles be convenient, that's to say cheaper than buying separetely 3DS + MH3G, it could make a pretty good selling point for whoever hasn't purchased a 3DS yet.

Speaking of which, do anyone know what are MH3G exstimated shipments like?
I am also curious about what is Mario Land's initial shipment like.

ONly one of the bundles is actually a bundle with 3ds hardware and I'm thinking that'll be quite limited I believe it sold out in hours on amazon and I don't think they've had it back up since

 

[Cosmonaut X]

Interesting, so the one with the highest attach rate at launch was 2nd

Yeah:

MHP - 5.2%
MHP2nd - 15.2%
MHP2G - 9.4%
MHTri - 7.1%
MHP3rd - 13.1%

An in an entirely unscientific exercise, if you average those out you get 10%. Assume (generously) that the 3DS userbase will grow by, say, 500k over the next month or so for a userbase of 2.7 million and apply that attach rate and you end up with FW sales of just 270k. Now, given that even the most pessimistic poster is unlikely to accept that it will sell that low, and that pre-orders suggest it's going to exceed Tri's first week we could be looking at a fairly high attach - something in the order of 20-25%, perhaps?

Of course, FW sales and attach rates matter little if the game fizzles out quickly and doesn't exhibit the legs of other portable MH games!

 

[walking fiend]

But what was the Wii userbase when Tri came out? And is userbase important, considering MH is the only game to sell more than a million on PSP, and consistently at that?

I don't see any consistency in going from 1.2m to 4.5m, really!

Wii userbase is not that relevant either: 1. It was a console monster hunter (with fee base for that matter) 2. It was released on Wii which core games don't really sell much anyway 3. It was before 4th's boom.

I guess beside 3DS obviously smaller installed based, platform change will also be a major reason why it won't sell like 3rd initially.


I would have expected it to sell as much as 3rd despite very small installed based if: 1. It was a major entry into the series, and a series not with conistent annual release (MH4 being 'shown' in like a week after 3G) 2. It was consistent with the consoles demographic (That is, it wasn't coming to a Nintendo handheld that practically got no major core 3rd party support like PSP, which got the big guns like MH, Crisis Core, PW, etc)

 

[Gianni Merryman]

ONly one of the bundles is actually a bundle with 3ds hardware and I'm thinking that'll be quite limited I believe it sold out in hours on amazon and I don't think they've had it back up since

Not a very smart move in my opinion, that bundle could have given sales a huge boost.
If I am recalling correctly MH bundles had a huge part in Monster hunter series' success on PSP, correct me if I'm wrong.

 

[frankie_baby]

I don't see any consistency in going from 1.2m to 4.5m, really!

Wii userbase is not really that relevant: 1. It was a console monster hunter (with fee base for that matter) 2. It was released on Wii which core games don't really sell much anyway 3. It was before 4th's boom. Whatever you meant by bringing it up.

It Is always worth noting with regards to tri sales that it Is still the best selling home console monster hunter by quite a considerable amount

 

[walking fiend]

It Is always worth noting with regards to tri sales that it Is still the best selling home console monster hunter by quite a considerable amount

I am not really sure about this one, because it is 'THE ONLY' console MH released after the series boomed on PSP.

Unless you mean 3rd HD, which practically doesn't count considering how lame and shitty of an effort it was

 

[test_account]

The size of the userbase doesnt always matter that much. I remember that Metal Gear Solid 4's opening week sold about just as much as MGS3's opening week, eventhough that the PS userbase was about 13 million units larger at that time.

I actually think that we will see a similar example next week with Super Mario 3D Land. Super Mario Galaxy 2 open week was about 340k on a 10.3 million userbase. I'm not surprised if SM3DL sells about 350k the first week on a 2.3 million userbase. This is console VS handheld though, but both games are 3D Mario =)

I'm not saying that 3G will sell close to what MHP3G did though.

 

[airmangataosenai]

They expect 1.2 millions to be shipped until March 2012... But Capcom has insane expectations, in both ways.
This time, I'm feeling they're too conservative.

Yeah no kidding. If they didn't hit estimates like that they'd have a full-on disaster on their hands. Shit, even if they did hit those estimates it'd still be a disaster.

 

[walking fiend]

The size of the userbase doesnt always matter that much. I remember that Metal Gear Solid 4's opening week sold about just as much as MGS3's opening week, eventhough that the PS userbase was about 13 million units larger at that time.

I think that we will see a similar example next week with Super Mario 3D Land. Super Mario Galaxy 2 open week was about 340k on a 10.3 million userbase. I'm not surprised if SM3DL sells about 350k the first week on a 2.3 million userbase. This is console VS handheld though, but both games are 3D Mario =)

I'm not saying that 3G will sell close to what MHP3G did though.

Games you mentioned, share four very important points:

1. Platform consistency: MGS1-3 on PS2, MGS4 on PS3. Mario on a Nintendo platform
2. Few entries per generation: 2 MGS last gen, 2 this gen. Three 3D mario is last decade.
3. Demographic consistency: PS3 being the core console like PS2 was. 3DS being a Nintendo console like DS was
4. Not being mainstream games and have a very defined set of fans. (3DL IS considerably more mainstream than MGS, and it will in the end 'easily' suprass SMG 1m sale, but it will need the installed base to increase)


Also, they are not as much as MH tied to a community experience, specially that it is 'local' muliplayer based. I believe MK users also increased much more than 3D Marios or Zelda increased after DS and Wii selling bucks, and think it is because MK sharing this feature (and also not sharing 4)

I could think of other examples that fit with your description, FF XIII being a very other major example.

 

[frankie_baby]

I am not really sure about this one, because it is 'THE ONLY' console MH released after the series boomed on PSP.

Unless you mean 3rd HD, which practically doesn't count considering how lame and shitty of an effort it was

Well technically mh2 was released after the first mhp and mhp was still the bigger seller (on a much tinyer userbase) so it Is clear that portable monster hunter is definately more appealing to the japanese

 

[BowieZ]

I think if you calculated those recent first-week attach rates (10-13%) by an estimated total of 3DS owners AS PROJECTED BEFORE ANNOUNCEMENT of TriG, then add all the weekly 10s of thousands of additional units sold since, and that would be a pretty good estimate of the first week sales.

 

[airmangataosenai]

Well technically mh2 was released after the first mhp and mhp was still the bigger seller (on a much tinyer userbase) so it Is clear that portable monster hunter is definately more appealing to the japanese

He was making a distinction by saying that the series "Boomed". It took MHP several re-releases and I believe upwards of a year before it finally hit 1 million. The series didn't explode as a mega-franchise ala Call of Duty until the sequel.

Yeah it was obvious early on that it was bigger on handhelds but it's still ridiculous to hold Tri up as "The best-selling console release" as if it means anything. It was expected to sel better than the PS2 releases..... it was guaranteed to outsell it considering the initial shipment was 1 million units vs. like, 300k (If that even) for the first game?

 

[Spiegel]

Attach rates mean nothing. If you release the next game on a megafranchise on a cheap and not dead console (i.e Xbox, Gamecube), people will buy the console to play the game.

MH3G is not going to sell 4.6M, obviously, but comparing it to games released before the franchise exploded or MHTri makes no sense.

 

[cvxfreak]

If Monster Hunter Portable 3rd HD can get its way to 400K, then I have little doubt that Tri G will sell 3x that.

Which is what Capcom is currently expecting to ship this fiscal year.

 

[Kenka]

Why don't both curves begin at 0 ?

 

[frankie_baby]

Why don't both curves begin at 0 ?

the start point is what sales were in the first week november

 

[Celine]

Why don't both curves begin at 0 ?

1 mean the first week sales and so on.

 

[king zell]

Mario 3D Land (this week biggest release)

http://www.true-gaming.net/home/48138/

Uncharted 3: Drake's Deception

http://www.true-gaming.net/home/48133/

Battlefield 3 hits Japan

http://www.true-gaming.net/home/48116/

Slime MoriMori Dragon Quest 3: Taikaizoku to Shippo Dan and the White 3DS

http://www.true-gaming.net/home/48112/

more releases for the week

http://www.true-gaming.net/home/48106/

 

[Orgen]

I think anyone expecting anything close to 3rd's FW sales is utterly crazy - it would mean selling to something like, what, 80-90% of the system's userbase on its first day (obviously depending on how much the system sells between now and launch of TriG). I don't know of any game that has managed that, even at launch of a new console.

Smash Bros Melee - GameCube (I think).

 

[Mpl90]

You said Melee?

The week before its release

Gamecube LTD - 299.412

When it went on sale


[GCN] Super Smash Bros. Melee (Nintendo) - 357.101 / 357.101 21/11/01

Gamecube - 129.377 LTD: 428.789

Ratio: 83,28%

 

[Road]

Dengeki Sales, Oct 24 - Oct 30, 2011 (Week 44)

01. (__) [PSP] Final Fantasy Type-0 (Square Enix) - 494,272 / 494,272 [ST: ~75% => 659,000]
02. (__) [WII] Kirby's Return to Dream Land (Nintendo) - 134,519 / 134,519 [ST: ~50% => 269,000]
03. (__) [PS3] Idolmaster 2 (Bandai Namco) - 62,845 / 62,845 [ST: ~80% => 79,000]
04. (03) [WII] Just Dance Wii (Nintendo) - 28,783 / 165,613 (-39%)
05. (04) [WII] Go Vacation (Bandai Namco) - 25,106 / 71,487 (-46%)
06. (__) [PSP] Ro-Kyu-Bu! (Kadokawa Games) - 20,306 / 20,306
07. (06) [PS3] Pro Evolution Soccer 2012 (Konami) - 17,011 / 391,867 (-40%)
08. (02) [PSP] Naruto Shippuden: Ultimate Ninja Impact (Bandai Namco) - 15,022 / 64,081 (-69%)
09. (__) [PS3] Disgaea 4: A Promise Unforgotten - Fuka & Desco-hen Hajimemashita (Nippon Ichi) - 14,925 / 14,925
10. (01) [PS3] Gekijouban Macross F: Sayonara no Tsubasa - Hybrid Pack (Bandai Namco) - 14,307 / 157,112 (-90%)
11. (__) [PSP] Senritsu no Stratus (Konami) - 14,283 / 14,283
12. (05) [PS3] Dead Island (Spike) - 13,882 / 52,064 (-64%)
13. (11) [WII] Wii Sports Resort (Nintendo) - 12,787 / 2,658,429 (+4%)
14. (09) [PSP] AKB1/48: Idol to Guam de Koishitara... (Bandai Namco) - 11,206 / 301,101 (-23%)
15. (07) [PS3] Ace Combat: Assault Horizon (Bandai Namco) - 10,835 / 174,992 (-59%)
16. (10) [WII] Rhythm Heaven Fever (Nintendo) - 9,906 / 544,415 (-23%)
17. (__) [PSP] Arcana Famiglia: La Storia della Arcana Famiglia (Comfort) - 8,773 / 8,773
18. (08) [PS3] FIFA 12 (Electronic Arts) - 8,700 / 32,513 (-63%)
19. (__) [PSP] Ragnarok: Hikari to Yami no Koujo (GungHo Online Entertainment) - 8,029 / 8,029
20. (17) [PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom 3 [PSP the Best] (Capcom) - 6,911 / 61,280 (-0%)

*ST: Sell-through => estimated copies shipped.


Other software (first week / LTD):
2008-12-18 [PSP] Dissidia Final Fantasy [all prices] (Square Enix) - 496,000 / 954,000
2007-09-13 [PSP] Crisis Core: Final Fantasy VII [all prices] (Square Enix) - 464,000 / 917,000
2010-10-14 [WII] Kirby's Epic Yarn (Nintendo) - 94,000 / 452,000


http://news.dengeki.com/elem/000/000/423/423169/
http://megalodon.jp/2011-1104-2244-27/news.dengeki.com/soft/ranking/ranking.html

Week 43: 10-17~10-23