Media Create Sales: Week 44, 2011 (Oct 31 - Nov 06)

test_account

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Erethian said:
Sub 100k is a bit extreme, but Level-5 hasn't made a great reputation for themselves with console titles.

Like the performance of WKC, then the drop off in sales with WKC2.
True, but Ni no Kuni looks like a quite solid and interesting title from what i have seen. I always thought that it would do at least 200k (or something around there + -) the first week, then i saw some of these sub 100k predictions. We'll find out soon enough though :)
 

Road

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The DS game failed to do 200k first week during the holiday season, so I don't know why were expecting the PS3 game to do at least that.

I just noticed the game costs 8,800 yen. Does it even come with that huge book?
 

Truth101

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[3DS] 3DS Hardware (Nintendo) - 1.900.000
[3DS] Super Mario 3D Land (Nintendo) - 600.000
[3DS] Mario Kart 7 (Nintendo) - 1.300.000
[3DS] Monster Hunter Tri G (Capcom) - 900.000
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII-2 (Square Enix) - 1.100.000
[PSV] Vita Hardware (SCE) - 650.000
 

Erethian

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Road said:
The DS game failed to do 200k first week during the holiday season, so I don't know why were expecting the PS3 game to do at least that.

I just noticed the game costs 8,800 yen. Does it even come with that huge book?
First print run (which I guess means the initial shipment?) will include the book. Otherwise you'll access a digital copy in-game.
 

BurntPork

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May 12, 2011
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[NDS] One Piece: Gigant Battle 2 (Bandai Namco Games) - 100,000
[PS3] Ni no Kuni: Wrath of the White Witch (Level 5) - 80,000
[PS3] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 - Subtitled (Square Enix) - 130,000

[3DS] 3DS Hardware (Nintendo) - 1,700,000
[3DS] Super Mario 3D Land (Nintendo) - 300,000
[3DS] Mario Kart 7 (Nintendo) - 1,700,000
[3DS] Monster Hunter Tri G (Capcom) - 1,200,000
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII-2 (Square Enix) - 1,000,000
[PSV] Vita Hardware (SCE) - 625,000
 

rpmurphy

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Dec 6, 2008
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Mpl90 said:
Low preorders.
Wow really? It would be really disappointing if a game of that caliber can't muscle up some good hype. Are people just not enthused about it because of the DS game?
 

Chris1964

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Dec 17, 2008
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Erethian said:
First print run (which I guess means the initial shipment?) will include the book. Otherwise you'll access a digital copy in-game.
From what I found there is no magical book at all and the box looks like it has the typical dimensions of a PS3 box.

Mario 3D Land had 30 people maximum development team, started with just 2, took 2 years to complete.
 

LOCK

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Chris1964 said:
Mario 3D Land had 30 people maximum development team, started with just 2, took 2 years to complete.
That is amazing.

Either they are masters at their craft or worked to death.
 

Orgen

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Predictions

[NDS] One Piece: Gigant Battle 2 (Bandai Namco Games) - 131.000
[PS3] Ni no Kuni: Wrath of the White Witch (Level 5) - 119.000
[PS3] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 - Subtitled (Square Enix) - 174.000

[3DS] 3DS Hardware (Nintendo) - 1.565.000
[3DS] Super Mario 3D Land (Nintendo) - 490.000
[3DS] Mario Kart 7 (Nintendo) - 1.375.000
[3DS] Monster Hunter Tri G (Capcom) - 930.000
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII-2 (Square Enix) - 1.180.000
[PSV] Vita Hardware (SCE) - 620.000
 

test_account

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Road said:
The DS game failed to do 200k first week during the holiday season, so I don't know why were expecting the PS3 game to do at least that.

I just noticed the game costs 8,800 yen. Does it even come with that huge book?
I just have a feeling that the PS3 version is a game that stands more out because of the very nice visual style (in my opinion). But i dont know how many preorders there is or how much hype there is around this game though.
 
So a weekish ago I added to the Garaph individual software pages information about the hardware userbase when the game launched. At the time I considered adding more, but didn't want to clutter up the page so it was dominated by that information. What I've done for now, though, is stick a variant in Labs with the extra information. Just need to put whatever Game ID into the URL. Alongside the weekly/LTD for the software it shows the weekly/LTD of the hardware, as well as what that makes the weekly/LTD attach percentages.

This is actually more interesting to check out than I thought it would be. Pop in NSMB and you can quickly see tidbits like that it sold to over 10% of the userbase the first week, at its peak there was a copy of the game for 37% of all DSes out there, but that it's now down to about 23%. However, its evergreenness shows when we see that whenever it pops into the Top 30 it's selling a large percentage as much as the DS hardware--especially since 3DS came along and knocked DS hardware down.

Or Super Smash Bros. Melee, which has been brought up as a game with an insane attach rate early on. But what I find interesting now is that when it dropped off, it REALLY dropped off. Among the first 1.4 million hardware buyers, it sold to 80% of them. It sold very little to the later buyers, though: by the end of 2002 it was in the library of 61% of GCN owners. 44% by the end of 2003. 38% by the end of 2004. 34% by the end.
 

walking fiend

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Chris1964 said:
From what I found there is no magical book at all and the box looks like it has the typical dimensions of a PS3 box.

Mario 3D Land had 30 people maximum development team, started with just 2, took 2 years to complete.
For real?!

It's insane how much a 30man developed game can sell... Nintendo is really efficient when it comes to sales/resource

I just have a feeling that the PS3 version is a game that stands more out because of the very nice visual style (in my opinion). But i dont know how many preorders there is or how much hype there is around this game though.
I don't expect >100K, actually BP 80k seems reasonable to me.
 

saichi

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test_account said:
I just have a feeling that the PS3 version is a game that stands more out because of the very nice visual style (in my opinion). But i dont know how many preorders there is or how much hype there is around this game though.
I agree it stands out with its visual style. However, that doesn't necessarily translate into sales. Personally I just don't think the target audience is on the system.
 

disco

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walking fiend said:
For real?!

It's insane how much a 30man developed game can sell... Nintendo is really efficient when it comes to sales/resource
Though of course it has to maintain it's quality otherwise we'll see brand/IP erosion.

I'm sure Nintendo can control themselves following the complete whoring of franchises this Christmas. I really hope we see some surprisingly stuff next year.
 

Alextended

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walking fiend said:
For real?!

It's insane how much a 30man developed game can sell... Nintendo is really efficient when it comes to sales/resource
On the other hand they had 3 Kirby games cancelled over the course of several years, some nearly complete, before finally releasing the fourth one they made. I'd guess Mario just happened to work out without objections on the first try. But yeah they aren't afraid to "waste" resources going back to the drawing board if necessary either.
 

test_account

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Chris1964 said:
Mario 3D Land had 30 people maximum development team, started with just 2, took 2 years to complete.
Are you sure there arent more? The credits of the game has about 60 names listed under Staff.


saichi said:
I agree it stands out with its visual style. However, that doesn't necessarily translate into sales. Personally I just don't think the target audience is not on the system.
That is true. But being a RPG as well, i just had a feeling that it would do quite well. I might be wrong of course, but luckily we get the know the answer relatively soon :)
 

Alextended

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It probably means concurrent developers. 10 people that started out on year one could be put on other projects and replaced by others and so on.
 

test_account

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Chris1964 said:
It's what Miyamoto said at an interview yesterday.

http://wpb.shueisha.co.jp/2011/11/11/7934/
Ok, i see :)


Alextended said:
It probably means concurrent developers. 10 people that started out on year one could be put on other projects and replaced by others and so on.
Yeah, that is a possibility. Afterall, not everything in a game takes equally long to make for every developer. Or maybe "Staff" also includes people who worked with the game somehow, but not directly with the developement (programming, 3D modeling etc. etc.) itself.
 

Sagitario

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Alextended said:
On the other hand they had 3 Kirby games cancelled over the course of several years, some nearly complete, before finally releasing the fourth one they made. I'd guess Mario just happened to work out without objections on the first try. But yeah they aren't afraid to "waste" resources going back to the drawing board if necessary either.
Really? Link, please.
 
JoshuaJSlone said:
So a weekish ago I added to the Garaph individual software pages information about the hardware userbase when the game launched. At the time I considered adding more, but didn't want to clutter up the page so it was dominated by that information.
Hey dummy, don't you realize the solution is to hide away the columns but offer a way to make them visible? Like you did years ago on the game search page? And would allow the standard software pages to then integrate the new data seamlessly?
 

DNF

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JoshuaJSlone said:
Hey dummy, don't you realize the solution is to hide away the columns but offer a way to make them visible? Like you did years ago on the game search page? And would allow the standard software pages to then integrate the new data seamlessly?
really nice work with your whole site in general.

but you should stop talking with yourself, you are no anihawk after all ;)
 

Road

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JoshuaJSlone said:
Hey dummy, don't you realize the solution is to hide away the columns but offer a way to make them visible? Like you did years ago on the game search page? And would allow the standard software pages to then integrate the new data seamlessly?
There's something wrong with the Hardware LTD calculation. For instance, showing 26 million for the DS as of August this year in the NSMB page.

I think that's a neat addition, by the way.
 
Road said:
There's something wrong with the Hardware LTD calculation. For instance, showing 26 million for the DS as of August this year in the NSMB page.

I think that's a neat addition, by the way.
Thanks for pointing that out. I thought I took the steps to make sure the various versions of a system summed up, but now I see the mistake--it's only adding together the totals for the models being reported in a given week, so the Phat stopped being included. Should be an easy enough fix.
 

Chris1964

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Dec 17, 2008
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sinobi - preorders

PS3 MW3 up from MW2
PS3 Ni no Kuni way behind MW3, high price and bad reputation keep it low
PS3 SR3 is healthy

360 MW3 comparable to MW2

NDS GB2 up from GB, limited edition sold out at many stores
 

Mpl90

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Chris1964 said:
sinobi - preorders

PS3 MW3 up from MW2
PS3 Ni no Kuni way behind MW3, high price and bad reputation keep it low
PS3 SR3 is healthy

360 MW3 comparable to MW2

NDS GB2 up from GB, limited edition sold out at many stores
...But I thought Ninokuni on DS was good! :(
Or is the bad reputation for the White Knight Chronicles?
 

Chris1964

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Retailer impressions round 3

Uncharted 3 and Battlefield 3 are expected to have the usual second week big drop, Mario 3D Land is holdind very well, Basara 3: Utage PS3/Wii has a smaller ratio this time as there aren't stock problems for Wii version, there is big female audience for it, MH3G is available for preorder again at some stores.
 

BishopLamont

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walking fiend said:
200k seems reasonable.

Erethian said:
If Mario is going to have betters legs than the Galaxy games, I'd expect a second week of at least 150k.
Yeah 150k would be the minimum and since its holding up well, 200k would be a good bet.
 

Erethian

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If Mario is going to have betters legs than the Galaxy games, I'd expect a second week of at least 150k.
 

cw_sasuke

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BowieZ said:
Mario 3D Land... possible to get over 200K?
More like 100-150K - but you never know, there are many 3DS owners out there which probably havent bought a new game in months. It will be interesting nevertheless.

Since 3D Land will probably outperform the Galaxy titles, like 64 DS did and most handheld to console releases i really wonder how big the next Smash Bros. title on 3DS could become - especially if they offer heavy customization features for every player as Sakurai hinted for the Handheld version. I would also love to see them integrate Figurine StreetPass battles like in SF4 3D - for such a massive title, this could provide a lot of fun. Connectivity with the WiiU title is as must also.
 

walking fiend

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frankie_baby said:
I'd doubt you really believed that, seeing as you don't think Mario will be over 200k
I don't think everyone will be buying it for Mario. It'll be on rise from now on till the end of year.
 

frankie_baby

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walking fiend said:
I don't think everyone will be buying it for Mario. It'll be on rise from now on till the end of year.
Without a significant release this week I doubt it'll go up, I do think though it'll be noticeably higher than it was the week before Mario I'd guess somewhere between 90k and 120k (with Mario somewhere between 160k and 200k) and then will rise every week til the end of the year
 

walking fiend

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frankie_baby said:
Without a significant release this week I doubt it'll go up, I do think though it'll be noticeably higher than it was the week before Mario I'd guess somewhere between 90k and 120k (with Mario somewhere between 160k and 200k) and then will rise every week til the end of the year
historically, Nintendo consoles didn't need major releases since DS and Wii for them to rise in November and October. Also, there are major releases, they are just not very immediate.

However, I am not saying that it will sell over last week, but that it is possible, more possible than 3DL selling over 200K. I'd say both will sell 150-180k.
 

frankie_baby

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walking fiend said:
historically, Nintendo consoles didn't need major releases since DS and Wii for them to rise in November and October. Also, there are major releases, they are just not very immediate.

However, I am not saying that it will sell over last week, but that it is possible, more possible than 3DL selling over 200K. I'd say both will sell 150-180k.
But last weeks bump was far bigger a rise than typical for early November it pretty much doubled

Thinking about it there is one possible situation that might cause 3ds sales to be higher this week and that is if there were stock problems last week with the white model I know amazon were sold out last weekend though don't know if anywhere else was
 

walking fiend

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frankie_baby said:
But last weeks bump was far bigger a rise than typical for early November it pretty much doubled

Thinking about it there is one possible situation that might cause 3ds sales to be higher this week and that is if there were stock problems last week with the white model I know amazon were sold out last weekend though don't know if anywhere else was
Not really. Last year in the US, DS sold 4m in November and December; it had sold only 800k more during the other 10months.
But last weeks bump was far bigger a rise than typical for early November it pretty much doubled
Yes, of course.

Let me put it this way. What percentage of the people who already owned 3DS were likely to buy 3DL last week? How many bought it along the console?

Now, you believe which is going to drop this month more, number of 3DL sold to those who already have the console, or sold to those who don't have the console?

What I believe, is that a lot of bump of 3DS that was due to 3DL will sustain, but the amount that sold to already owning 3DS will drop more. Of course this game has crazy leg, but in the end I don't think the attach rate of the game will be much different between the early adopters. That is, if we go buy NSMB attach rate of 25%, I guess in 2000k early adopters, will probably find like 500k copies of 3DL.