Media Create Sales: Week 44, 2014 (Oct 27 - Nov 02)

[Busaiku]

Isn't Bravely Second in December?

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

There is already a Dragon Quest game releasing in Feb

my mind has been blown lol

 

[Pennywise83]

That's a pretty cool line-up for the 3DS, though it's missing two things:

1) Dragon Quest game (last 2 year had one on 1st week of February)
2) major Nintendo game (à la Animal Crossing / Tomodachi Life), just like last year.

Well, January and February still have evergreen titles, such as Pokémon, Yo-kai Watch, Monster Hunter and Super Smash Bros. I guess they could drive some hw sales. I'm expecting some mid-tier title from Nintendo in January or February, though.

 

[Busaiku]

Codename S.T.E.A.M. is definitely on that scope, it's just not getting attention due to its terrible art.

 

[zeromcd73]

Codename S.T.E.A.M. is definitely on that scope, it's just not getting attention due to its terrible art.

I'm betting on STEAM bombing hard in Japan. Absolutely no hype on any Japanese forum whatsoever. Not even that, there is nobody talking about it at all.

 

[Pennywise83]

Codename S.T.E.A.M. is definitely on that scope, it's just not getting attention due to its terrible art.

STEAM is a Spring release, though.

I'm betting on STEAM bombing hard in Japan. Absolutely no hype on any Japanese forum whatsoever. Not even that, there is nobody talking about it at all.

I guess it still needs to be advertised over there.

 

[Scum]

DQXI as a launch title for Nintendo's console in Late 2016/Early 2017.

Well, January and February still have evergreen titles, such as Pokémon, Yo-kai Watch, Monster Hunter and Super Smash Bros. I guess they could drive some hw sales. I'm expecting some mid-tier title from Nintendo in January or February, though.

To be honest, Nintendo should make it their business to shit out mid-tier titles all the time.

 

[zeromcd73]

DQXI as a launch title for Nintendo's console in Late 2016/Early 2017.

I thought so too, until I saw the light.

Why Dragon Quest XI will be on PS4:

• Horii states on a radio show that DQ11 in development and he wants to play on the big screen.
• SCEJA President's first words to Horii at the pre TGS event are "Welcome back home" after DQH is shown
• Famitsu Interview with Horii; He wants fans to first play DQHeroes and then get excited for the next numbered title
• Horii confirms on more than one occasion that it will not be for smartphones
• Horii states in this interview that playing for long periods of time on home consoles is more confortable than smartphones/handhelds
• Horii states in the same interview he wants to increase the amount of core gamers in Japan
• Horii says in the same interview that game fans still want to play on the big screen

Why Dragon Quest XI will be on PS4 not a tin foil hat theory edition:

• First day TGS gameplay of DQHeroes has the characters at level 8 versing small creatures, the next day they are level 11 fighting a big boss
• DQHeroes live broadcast had two separate demos; Both had the characters start out with 811 coins
• In the first DQHeroes live broadcast demo both Mea and Kiryl are level 17, in the second demo Mea levels up by 6 and Kiryl by 5. 6+5 = 11
• In the second DQHeroes live broadcast demo, the characters are level 22, 22, 23, and 24. If you add the left column and the right column together separately you get 8 and 11.
• At TGS a SE employee tweeted that he ironprinted Slimes to T-shirts for promoting DQH, and and it just so happened he printed 11 of them

 

[Scum]

I thought so too, until I saw the light.

PS4 and nNES, it is then.

 

[Pennywise83]

To be honest, Nintendo should make it their business to shit out mid-tier titles all the time.

Many mid-tier games are now eShop-locked. Games like Pokémon Trozei and Kirby Fighters reached the 100k mark there.

 

[Busaiku]

I'm betting on STEAM bombing hard in Japan. Absolutely no hype on any Japanese forum whatsoever. Not even that, there is nobody talking about it at all.

I don't see it doing well anywhere.
The art really makes it seem like a shovelware title, it's just that bad.

 

[zeromcd73]

I don't see it doing well anywhere.
The art really makes it seem like a shovelware title, it's just that bad.

It's such a shame. I like Fire Emblem and Advance Wars but I can't buy STEAM. The art is so bad

 

[Scum]

Many mid-tier games are now eShop-locked. Games like Pokémon Trozei and Kirby Fighters reached the 100k mark there.

Ahh. I see.

 

[The Hermit]

Why Dragon Quest XI will be on PS4 not a tin foil hat theory edition:

First day TGS gameplay of DQHeroes has the characters at level 8 versing small creatures, the next day they are level 11 fighting a big boss
DQHeroes live broadcast had two separate demos; Both had the characters start out with 811 coins
In the first DQHeroes live broadcast demo both Mea and Kiryl are level 17, in the second demo Mea levels up by 6 and Kiryl by 5. 6+5 = 11
In the second DQHeroes live broadcast demo, the characters are level 22, 22, 23, and 24. If you add the left column and the right column together separately you get 8 and 11.

lol

Spoiler

too crazy to be coincidence though

 

[Busaiku]

Ultimate NES Remix could end up being a February/March title.
We only found out about it like a month ago for the US.

 

[Nirolak]

Codename S.T.E.A.M. is definitely on that scope, it's just not getting attention due to its terrible art.

Yeah it basically looks like a mix of Valkyria and XCOM which were both bigger titles.

With unfortunate art that is.

 

[Nirolak]

In the meanwhile, Dragon Quest Heroes has yet to appear in Comgnet rankings, and it is falling on Amazon best-seller chart. I thought that being the first DQ on a home console since 2006 it would have generated a lot more interests, in particular by hardcore gamers (those who preorders immediately).



I know that the two markets are fundamentally different. They are based on completely different business models. This does not change the fact that, if you are a traditional game company, either you have a new successful IP; or you exploit an existing IP. SQEX does not seem to have found notable successes, outside the 102031th FF they tried, the 3rd DQ game, and a bunch of new IPs that are not nearly as popular as Puzzle and Dragons and such.

On the one hand I agree they're not making as much as Gung-ho, Mixi, LINE, or Colopl,

On the other hand, mobile looks on track to make 35%+ of their earnings this year which is still quite significant for them.

I would compare them to EA where they might not be at the top, but they're still finding good success and growing instead of just faceplanting like Capcom.

 

[Salex_]

In the meanwhile, Dragon Quest Heroes has yet to appear in Comgnet rankings, and it is falling on Amazon best-seller chart. I thought that being the first DQ on a home console since 2006 it would have generated a lot more interests, in particular by hardcore gamers (those who preorders immediately).

I don't get your point. FF Type-0 + FFXV demo and Bloodborne also isn't on the comgnet rankings.

DQ Heroes should be bigger than both of those but I wouldn't expect it to chart this far out anyway.

How much do you think DQH will sell?

 

[Oregano]

I don't get your point. FF Type-0 + FFXV demo and Bloodborne also isn't on the comgnet rankings.

DQ Heroes should be bigger than both of those but I wouldn't expect it to chart this far out anyway.

 

[antibolo]

I'm fairly sure that Codename Steam has been deliberately made for the western market. In fact I think they actually said that in the NA Nintendo Direct.

 

[Oregano]

How much do you think DQH will sell?

I think it will be a disappointment if it doesn't sell at least 800K which would be a very strong result for Type 0 and Bloodborne. A 500/300K spkit in favour of PS3 and that is the floor.

 

[Pennywise83]

On the one hand I agree they're not making as much as Gung-ho, Mixi, LINE, or Colopl,

On the other hand, mobile looks on track to make 35%+ of their earnings this year which is still quite significant for them.

I would compare them to EA where they might not be at the top, but they're still finding good success and growing instead of just faceplanting like Capcom.

With how many games? How long, on average, their mobile games are lasting? To me it seems SQEX is pumping out plenty of mobile titles that on the aggregate bring a good amount of earning, but overall are inefficiently carried over.

 

[L~A]

Isn't Bravely Second in December?

I'd love to know where that december thing comes from, because Square-Enix has always said winter.

Bravely Second is most likely february/march, if not April. Guess we're getting new trailer and maybe release at Jump Festa (or before, with magazine leaks).

 

[Mory Dunz]

I don't really get all the hate for STEAMs art. It seems to capture that Cartoon/Comic Book look pretty well in my opinion.

I guess if you hate that look, sure. But it's well executed and it nails what it's going for, so I can't call it horrible. And it's on the 3DS which kinda limits it tbh.

 

[Mory Dunz]

I'm fairly sure that Codename Steam has been deliberately made for the western market. In fact I think they actually said that in the NA Nintendo Direct.

Probably the U.S. to be more specific.

If they're going to go for a limited appeal like that, they better advertise it like crazy. Like on Nickelodeon.

 

[jeremy1456]

I think it will be a disappointment if it doesn't sell at least 800K which would be a very strong result for Type 0 and Bloodborne. A 500/300K spkit in favour of PS3 and that is the floor.

Dragon Quest Swords sold around 500k if I remember correctly, on a console that had a ton of momentum at the time.

I'm guessing Heroes will sell 500k.. 300k PS3, and 200k PS4.

 

[Oregano]

Dragon Quest Swords sold around 500k if I remember correctly, on a console that had a ton of momentum at the time.

I'm guessing Heroes will sell 500k.. 300k PS3, and 200k PS4.

That is true but Swords was an on-rails game and Heroes has that built in musou audience. If it only matches Swords that would be a mediocre result, but not a failure imo.

 

[Orniletter]

I don't see it doing well anywhere.
The art really makes it seem like a shovelware title, it's just that bad.

You should look at some actual ingame footage. The boxart is pretty eh, but the game itself isn´t even close to bad.

 

[Nirolak]

With how many games? How long, on average, their mobile games are lasting? To me it seems SQEX is pumping out plenty of mobile titles that on the aggregate bring a good amount of earning, but overall are inefficiently carried over.

They rank their successful titles as follows:

Release dates:

DQM: January 2014
Schoolgirl Strikers: April 2014
FF Record Keeper: September 2014

Sangokushi Rumble: June 2013
Puzzle Bobble: December 2013
Dragon Quest X: December 2013

Lost Zero: September 2014

It is worth keeping in mind that Square Enix didn't do many f2p games outside of Mobage/GREE until more recently.

That said, mobile games only cost a couple million to make (or sometimes less), and things like DQ, judging by similarly charting titles, bring in around $90-$100+ million a year, so there's a lot of room for failure while still maintaining fantastic margins overall.

By comparison one failed AAA game at $20-$30 million (and that's lowballing it even compared with to what they listed) is like the cost of 10-15 mobile games.

B-tier (presumably handheld? unless they mean like maybe LR but that seems too cheap?) games they listed as $10 million, so we're looking at 3-5 mobile games still.

As for failed f2p titles I can think of a few. There's Agito, Mana, the Cross games and air patrol (they faded along with most old school Mobage games), and the one of the waifu sci-fi titles.

That's not a horrible failure rate overall given the successes.

We'll have to see how G-BIKE and the samurai game do still.

 

[ZSaberLink]

Comgnet 1 week (10/31 - 11/7)

Pok AS - 654 (+71)
Pok OR - 574 (+63)
YW2.5 - 664 (+178)

hail to Jibanyan, the new king of Japan

So for those titles...

comgnet preorders:
Pok AS - 660 (+6)
Pok OR - 583 (+9)
YW2.5 - 699 (+35) <-- this is insane....


[PS3] Tales of Zesutiria - 113pt

[WiiU] Super Smash Bros for WiiU - 70pt + 32 (GC bundle) = 102pt
[3DS] Pokemon Ruby Omega Alpha Sapphire Double Pack - 92pt
[PSV] Phantasy Star Nova - 85pt
[PS3] Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare (subtitled version) - 74pt
[PS3] Dengeki FIGHTING CLIMAX - 67pt
[PSV] Dengeki FIGHTING CLIMAX - 62pt
[3DS] Labyrinth 2 Fafnir Knight of New World Tree - 56pt
[PSV] The Irregular at Magic High School Out of Order (First Press Limited Edition) - 44pt
[PS3] Shining Resonance (Limited Edition) - 40pt
[PS3] Shining Resonance (Normal Edition) - 36pt
[PS3] World Soccer Winning Eleven 2015 - 30pt
[PS3] Shin Sangoku Musou 7 Empires (Normal Edition) - 29pt
[PSV] Fate / hollow ataraxia (Limited Edition) - 27pt
[3DS] One Piece Grand Battle Ultra X -! 26pt
[3DS] Final Fantasy Explorer's - 24pt

 

[mao2]

Dragon Quest Swords sold around 500k if I remember correctly, on a console that had a ton of momentum at the time.

I'm guessing Heroes will sell 500k.. 300k PS3, and 200k PS4.

Fist of the North Star: Ken's Rage sold 549K and One Piece: Pirate Warriors sold 828K on PS3. I think Dragon Quest Heroes will sell more than 500K.

 

[May16]

Isn't Bravely Second in December?

There is no announced release date, or month yet.

 

[Moor-Angol]

I don't get your point. FF Type-0 + FFXV demo and Bloodborne also isn't on the comgnet rankings.

the first sign of nervousness for DQ moving to nintendo handheld to sony home

 

[Nintendojitsu]

They're great!

 

[Nirolak]

They're great!

This is the kind of stuff I feel Nintendo should be doing more aggressively with many of their franchises.

It's a great way to build and sustain a brand that appeals to kids.

 

[Pennywise83]

the first sign of nervousness for DQ moving to nintendo handheld to sony home

Can you explain it better?

 

[Mory Dunz]

They're great!

I thought that was a digimon at first...

 

[Aostia]

Dqh will sell 1 mil copies combined. If OP sold 800k, that is clear to me.
And it is not the first time that a warriors game or a dq spinoff is able to do so, so..

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

Yeah I'm expecting 800-1 million for DQH.

 

[Pennywise83]

Dqh will sell 1 mil copies combined. If OP sold 800k, that is clear to me.
And it is not the first time that a warriors game or a dq spinoff is able to do so, so..

How about the split? 600k / 400k?

 

[GarciaHotspur]

Ok so 8000 per weeks for thz PS4; hopefully it will be enough to have DQXI...

 

[Magicpaint]

I think >500k is really my expectation for DQH. 1 million selling console games are rare nowadays and this is still a DQ spinoff. The only other million selling DQ spinoffs are the majority of DQM games.

EDIT: Hmm maybe one of the Torneko Mysterious Dungeon games also did >1m but I don't have figures in hand right now.

 

[Aostia]

How about the split? 600k / 400k?

Could be even more balanced, looking at ps4 renaissance they are planning for feb/mar 2015. Especially if there will be some sort of bundle/deal/cut as the one they are apparently preparing for black friday in the west

 

[Pennywise83]

Could be even more balanced, looking at ps4 renaissance they are planning for feb/mar 2015. Especially if there will be some sort of bundle/deal/cut as the one they are apparently preparing for black friday in the west

So DQH being the first title to sell more than 136k units, and breaking the 200k mark, the 300k mark, the 400k mark and even the 500k mark? I hope it will happen.

 

[hiska-kun]

Next week numbers will be very telling about New 3DS status. I was expecting to see sold out signs for N3DS XL Smash Bros Edition, but it's still in stock at every shop.
It seems Nintendo shipped a good amount of copies, then.

 

[encephalon]

I bought a PS4 today at my local Tsutaya. The box was dusty.

There were slips of paper to purchase a preorder of Resident Evil. No PS4 version in sight.

 

[L~A]

Next week numbers will be very telling about New 3DS status. I was expecting to see sold out signs for N3DS XL Smash Bros Edition, but it's still in stock at every shop.
It seems Nintendo shipped a good amount of copies, then.

Really? For me it looks like a holiday special, meant to be available during the holidays (not one of the usual LE that sells out in a matter of days/weeks). I would have been surprised to see it sell out during the first week-end, especially since there's nothing really out of the ordinary with this LE.

Curious to see the impact it'll have on sales, especially without any major release that week.

 

[Smiles and Cries]

why is WiiU so low lately?

 

[Pennywise83]

Next week numbers will be very telling about New 3DS status. I was expecting to see sold out signs for N3DS XL Smash Bros Edition, but it's still in stock at every shop.
It seems Nintendo shipped a good amount of copies, then.

New 3DS status will be very telling in the first half of 2015, imo.

 

[fredrancour]

why is WiiU so low lately?

Announced bundles gave the already-low population of people planning to buy one a good reason to wait a bit.