Media Create Sales: Week 46, 2014 (Nov 10 - Nov 16)

maxcriden

Member
Splatoon seems like a non-starter. Mario Party seems likely to have heavy overlap with Wii Party U.

I just don't see much on the table that could really branch out in a big way in 2015.

FWIW, I might be totally naive about this, but I think Splatoon is one of the few chances Nintendo has amongst its upcoming titles to have a breakout title for the system. I suspect it'll either do shockingly well or be another extremely niche title. With proper marketing I think it could have pretty wide appeal. It's an online shooter kids can play.

BTW, I know this sounds a bit silly, but I don't think MP has the appeal WPU does. I think for some reason there's a contigent of gamers that things the WP/WPU brand has a shovelware aspect to it and MP with its brand recognition has more gamer cred. (Which is kind of funny considering they're practically identical.) Not that I expect MP to make any real sales difference for Wii U, though.
 
Weekly PSV hw sales: 2014 (YTD) / 2013 (YTD)
W46:19.976 (1.002.847) / 88.522 (961.982)
W47: - (-) / 28.912 (990.894)
W48: - (-) / 25.593 (1.016.487)
W49: - (-) / 29.366 (1.045.853)
W50: - (-) / 35.946 (1.081.799)
W51: - (-) / 55.591 (1.137.390)
W52: - (-) / 87.142 (1.224.532)
 

Hellraider

Member
Not saying Captain Toad will have legs, but Nintendo games typically perform very nicely during holidays. Last year, Super Mario 3D World debuted at just over 100k, but then sold 60k, 80k and 65k units in the last 3 weeks of the year. It's common that people forget this trend. Tropical Freeze was released in February, so it couldn't exploit "legs power" (though it eventually reach the 100k mark).

There is a pretty big difference between a title like SM3DW and a title like Toad. Toad will probably crawl to 100k and while percentage wise you could say these are huge legs, in reality the numbers really are nothing to write home about.

This is not directed to you by the way. It's just that this looks awfully familiar to the Tropical Freeze legs debates we were having for freaking months.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
FWIW, I might be totally naive about this, but I think Splatoon is one of the few chances Nintendo has amongst its upcoming titles to have a breakout title for the system. I suspect it'll either do shockingly well or be another extremely niche title. With proper marketing I think it could have pretty wide appeal. It's an online shooter kids can play.

BTW, I know this sounds a bit silly, but I don't think MP has the appeal WPU does. I think for some reason there's a contigent of gamers that things the WP/WPU brand has a shovelware aspect to it and MP with its brand recognition has more gamer cred. (Which is kind of funny considering they're practically identical.) Not that I expect MP to make any real sales difference for Wii U, though.

Splatoon I'm fairly bearish on, mainly because while "It's an online shooter kids can play." seems like a solid argument on the surface, I'm not convinced that parents don't just buy their children one of the big shooters (CoD, Destiny - which is T rated, Halo, or Battlefield) anyway.

I mean we even have a thread about all the toys for young children made for games like Halo, CoD, Gears, and Titanfall: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=888950&highlight=

To its benefit I think it looks like a surprisingly well made competitive shooter, but if we're talking about Japan I don't think that is a big draw, and if we're talking about the West there's a ton of competition on that front. I think it will probably find a niche, but I could easily see that being the same kind of niche debut we saw for something like Bayonetta.
 
[PS3] Gundam Breaker - 84pt
[PSV] Gundam Breaker 2 - 25pt
[PS3] Gundam Breaker 2 - 25pt
As much as we drag Vita to the pits of hell and beyond, it definitely has its own role in the industry.

The decline for some games would be even bigger without Vita SKUs.
 

NotLiquid

Member
It has to make up a pretty hefty margin from here on out, and I think people are underestimating last year/overestimating the impact of Smash.

EDIT: Nevermind I'm a moron and completely misunderstood the charts / thought that the "Last YTD" part meant sales for that entire year. Yeah the Wii U probably isn't going to do better.
 

maxcriden

Member
Splatoon I'm fairly bearish on, mainly because while "It's an online shooter kids can play." seems like a solid argument on the surface, I'm not convinced that parents don't just buy their children one of the big shooters (CoD, Destiny - which is T rated, Halo, or Battlefield) anyway.

I mean we even have a thread about all the toys for young children made for games like Halo, CoD, Gears, and Titanfall: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=888950&highlight=

To its benefit I think it looks like a surprisingly well made competitive shooter, but if we're talking about Japan I don't think that is a big draw, and if we're talking about the West there's a ton of competition on that front. I think it will probably find a niche, but I could easily see that being the same kind of niche debut we saw for something like Bayonetta.

Hm, I hadn't realized Destiny was rated T. I wonder if that went a long way towards helping its successful launch. I see your points. I think you're right that Japan is not the ideal market for a game like Splatoon; despite its evident zaniness, it just doesn't look like what Japan wants out of Nintendo games (which is what, these days...? Portable RPGs with a healthy dose of cute monsters and/or established IPs and/or life sims? Hmm.). OTOH, I could see it falling way on its face in the West without the proper marketing.

But this brings me back to my concern about amiibo and Smash that you and I were discussing in the NPD thread the other day. Kids don't have Wii Us. So why will they want amiibos? I'd love to be wrong, but I feel like Nintendo needs to step up its marketing game big time if they want to successfully launch new products and properties like this in this current marketplace. I think they see Splatoon as a new kind of product for the market, and I'm guessing they have the market research to show there's a large contingent of parents who won't buy their kids M-rated games (despite however many will do so), and I do think given the massive population of gamers in the West they could really hit on something. *scratches brow* But this is Nintendo today, and I'm very wary of their current and iterative marketing efforts. It's unfortunately not too hard for me to picture amiibo, Splatoon and QoL all falling flat. Again, I'd love to be wrong, though.
 

hiska-kun

Member
Ah, now I understand what the blog was trying to say with his last entry:

Erueru Sister => LL (so 3DS LL)
Hinabita => Vita
V for Vendetta => PS4
You => Wii U

He was just posting the most sold systems this week in order.

His puzzles are difficult to get -.-
 

joesiv

Member
[WIU] Mario Kart 8 # <RCE> (Nintendo) {2014.05.29} (¥6.156) - 13.544 / 713.132 (+322%)

The GOTY is back!

yeah, it seems like every new WiiU had a mario kart sale, that game is going to have long legs!

Cross-replying to new thread.
Just noticed that... that's a pretty huge discrepancy... no idea.
Probably just due to the different samplings of stores between the two metrics. More people bought them at one set of stores compared to a different set of stores.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
Hm, I hadn't realized Destiny was rated T. I wonder if that went a long way towards helping its successful launch. I see your points. I think you're right that Japan is not the ideal market for a game like Splatoon; despite its evident zaniness, it just doesn't look like what Japan wants out of Nintendo games (which is what, these days...? Portable RPGs with a healthy dose of cute monsters and/or established IPs and/or life sims? Hmm.). OTOH, I could see it falling way on its face in the West without the proper marketing.

But this brings me back to my concern about amiibo and Smash that you and I were discussing in the NPD thread the other day. Kids don't have Wii Us. So why will they want amiibos? I'd love to be wrong, but I feel like Nintendo needs to step up its marketing game big time if they want to successfully launch new products and properties like this in this current marketplace. I think they see Splatoon as a new kind of product for the market, and I'm guessing they have the market research to show there's a large contingent of parents who won't buy their kids M-rated games (despite however many will do so), and I do think given the massive population of gamers in the West they could really hit on something. *scratches brow* But this is Nintendo today, and I'm very wary of their current and iterative marketing efforts. It's unfortunately not too hard for me to picture amiibo, Splatoon and QoL all falling flat. Again, I'd love to be wrong, though.
With Nintendo I'm guessing the thought process was "Let's have the newer/younger staff make a game." and that staff went "We really like competitive shooters, so let's try to make one in the Nintendo way." and thus Splatoon was born. Given that shooters are very popular in the West, Nintendo then got behind it and promoted it as a major title at E3.

They also seem to be using this as an opportunity to continue expanding their community focused marketing and communications efforts, given that's the standard with the genre. I suspect we'll be seeing a lot of post release updates.

Given some of the products they release, I'm not as convinced they go through a rigorous market research and planning phase before deciding what to make, so much as just having the games arise and then trying to figure it out from there.
 

small44

Member
Weekly PSV hw sales: 2014 (YTD) / 2013 (YTD)
W46:19.976 (1.002.847) / 88.522 (961.982)
W47: - (-) / 28.912 (990.894)
W48: - (-) / 25.593 (1.016.487)
W49: - (-) / 29.366 (1.045.853)
W50: - (-) / 35.946 (1.081.799)
W51: - (-) / 55.591 (1.137.390)
W52: - (-) / 87.142 (1.224.532)

2013/2015 difference will be very ugly
 

duckroll

Member
I think a game like Splatoon would have much greater impact on a more level playing field, like at the start of a generation. In the middle of an already competitive environment, on a platform which is already pretty much written off by the market, there isn't really much hope for it to take off.

Nintendo continues to have a problem where their intentions are good but the business plan just isn't there. Their niche offerings on the Wii like Sin and Punishment 2, their RPG initiative on the Wii with Xenoblade and Last Story, their Platinum partnership on the WiiU with W101 and Bayonetta 1+2, and next up stuff like Splatoon and The Devil's Third to try and leverage on shooters with deep multiplayer experiences.

All these are good ideas, and many of these titles are high quality offerings too. The problem is still.... wrong place wrong time. Not that there is much Nintendo can do about it because they're a first party, so as long as their hardware is in a bad position, it's always going to be the wrong place, and the longer development takes on games, the more likely they'll be released at the wrong time.
 

Lucumo

Member
Why would you be surprised? CoD is a pretty big series in Japan as far as western games go. It's been doing well for years on PS3.

Yep, it's a shame how this franchise (or FPS games in general) picked up more and more speed in the past few years. Add to that Mincecraft and LoL and there is way too much Western influence.
 

Sandfox

Member
I think a game like Splatoon would have much greater impact on a more level playing field, like at the start of a generation. In the middle of an already competitive environment, on a platform which is already pretty much written off by the market, there isn't really much hope for it to take off.

Nintendo continues to have a problem where their intentions are good but the business plan just isn't there. Their niche offerings on the Wii like Sin and Punishment 2, their RPG initiative on the Wii with Xenoblade and Last Story, their Platinum partnership on the WiiU with W101 and Bayonetta 1+2, and next up stuff like Splatoon and The Devil's Third to try and leverage on shooters with deep multiplayer experiences.

All these are good ideas, and many of these titles are high quality offerings too. The problem is still.... wrong place wrong time. Not that there is much Nintendo can do about it because they're a first party, so as long as their hardware is in a bad position, it's always going to be the wrong place, and the longer development takes on games, the more likely they'll be released at the wrong time.
If the game does well critically Nintendo will probably give it another chance on a different platform. I think Splatoon has a chance to do decent enough on the Wii U though since it seems like something the Wii U audience would be interested in.
 
Yep, it's a shame how this franchise (or FPS games in general) picked up more and more speed in the past few years. Add to that Mincecraft and LoL and there is way too much Western influence.
That damn western influence! lmao

speaking of Splatoon, that game probably would've been a hit on the Wii, hopefully the complete lack of a shooter audience on the Wii U doesn't cripple it
 

maxcriden

Member
With Nintendo I'm guessing the thought process was "Let's have the newer/younger staff make a game." and that staff went "We really like competitive shooters, so let's try to make one in the Nintendo way." and thus Splatoon was born. Given that shooters are very popular in the West, Nintendo then got behind it and promoted it as a major title at E3.

They also seem to be using this as an opportunity to continue expanding their community focused marketing and communications efforts, given that's the standard with the genre. I suspect we'll be seeing a lot of post release updates.

Given some of the products they release, I'm not as convinced they go through a rigorous market research and planning phase before deciding what to make, so much as just having the games arise and then trying to figure it out from there.

I think a game like Splatoon would have much greater impact on a more level playing field, like at the start of a generation. In the middle of an already competitive environment, on a platform which is already pretty much written off by the market, there isn't really much hope for it to take off.

Nintendo continues to have a problem where their intentions are good but the business plan just isn't there. Their niche offerings on the Wii like Sin and Punishment 2, their RPG initiative on the Wii with Xenoblade and Last Story, their Platinum partnership on the WiiU with W101 and Bayonetta 1+2, and next up stuff like Splatoon and The Devil's Third to try and leverage on shooters with deep multiplayer experiences.

All these are good ideas, and many of these titles are high quality offerings too. The problem is still.... wrong place wrong time. Not that there is much Nintendo can do about it because they're a first party, so as long as their hardware is in a bad position, it's always going to be the wrong place, and the longer development takes on games, the more likely they'll be released at the wrong time.

That all makes sense. Thanks for your thoughtful replies. Regardless of how things shake out sales-wise, hopefully Splatoon will be a compelling and original game. (Nirolak, if you're right about Nintendo not doing a lot of market research and the like, I do think in this sales environment they'd be wise to change that.)
 

Darius

Banned
PSV continues its negative trend towards worse ytd sales.

PSV 2014-2013 ytd comparison

MediaCreate
week40: +215.563
week41: +164.695
week42: +148.323
-
week45: +109.411
week46: + 40.865


Famitsu
week40: +226.192
week41: +176.920
week42: +161.553
-
week45: +119.852
week46: + 46.284
 

SmokyDave

Member
Weekly PSV hw sales: 2014 (YTD) / 2013 (YTD)
W46:19.976 (1.002.847) / 88.522 (961.982)
W47: - (-) / 28.912 (990.894)
W48: - (-) / 25.593 (1.016.487)
W49: - (-) / 29.366 (1.045.853)
W50: - (-) / 35.946 (1.081.799)
W51: - (-) / 55.591 (1.137.390)
W52: - (-) / 87.142 (1.224.532)
Woah, I missed that it had topped a million this week. Score!

I love the palpable tension as we wait for the Vita to join everyone else in the declining platforms lounge. Will it be next week? The week after?! Stay tuned.
 

Scum

Junior Member
That damn western influence! lmao

speaking of Splatoon, that game probably would've been a hit on the Wii, hopefully the complete lack of a shooter audience on the Wii U doesn't cripple it

The toxic nature of the WiiU means Splatoon is doomed to mediocre sales, if that. I fear for Smash too...
 

Eolz

Member
The toxic nature of the WiiU means Splatoon is doomed to mediocre sales, if that. I fear for Smash too...

Meh, even if Smash doesn't have huge sales, it's a true evergreen title, and will keep getting sales during the WiiU life.
Still too early to say for Splatoon imo (even if I don't see it getting good legs).
 

Scum

Junior Member
I'm just a pessimistic cunt these days, so feel to excuse me and what I say. :p

...

But I still have my fingers crossed for NintenDOS to happen...
 
I see zero Splatoon talk outside of typical Nintendo fans - Bayonetta 2 had lot more attention before release. If they wanted to sell Wii U to core gamers then cooperation with well known studios would be much better as those have established fanbases.

Obsidian developed Wii U exclusive rpg for example, funding Dragon Dogma 2, bribe Sega for Virtua Fighter/Valkyria Chronicles etc.
 

boingball

Member
Nice to see the numbers going up. MCM is the expected system seller for Xbox One, the All-in-One Entertainment System, quadrupling the sales. But Wii U and PS4 also show signs of life. The Vita is also up, but is on the verge of loosing the title of the only console who is up compared to last year.
 

Lucumo

Member
That damn western influence! lmao

speaking of Splatoon, that game probably would've been a hit on the Wii, hopefully the complete lack of a shooter audience on the Wii U doesn't cripple it

I need the Japanese to play Japanese games to make it worthwhile to produce Japanese games. So this is all about us (me), not them. Makes sense, right?
 
Blue: first week
Red: others


Lowest start since WE97.



 

Balb

Member
I feel so bad for EAD Tokyo. They're making some of the best games period and nobody is playing them because of the console they're on. Hope morale doesn't take a hit.
 
I feel so bad for EAD Tokyo. They're making some of the best games period and nobody is playing them because of the console they're on. Hope morale doesn't take a hit.

They work for arguably the most respected and reputable developer studio in the world, I doubt it impacts morale. This isn't Ubisoft... Nintendo isn't going to just let go the entire staff because of low sales.
 

KooopaKid

Banned
I think a game like Splatoon would have much greater impact on a more level playing field, like at the start of a generation. In the middle of an already competitive environment, on a platform which is already pretty much written off by the market, there isn't really much hope for it to take off.

Nintendo continues to have a problem where their intentions are good but the business plan just isn't there. Their niche offerings on the Wii like Sin and Punishment 2, their RPG initiative on the Wii with Xenoblade and Last Story, their Platinum partnership on the WiiU with W101 and Bayonetta 1+2, and next up stuff like Splatoon and The Devil's Third to try and leverage on shooters with deep multiplayer experiences.

All these are good ideas, and many of these titles are high quality offerings too. The problem is still.... wrong place wrong time. Not that there is much Nintendo can do about it because they're a first party, so as long as their hardware is in a bad position, it's always going to be the wrong place, and the longer development takes on games, the more likely they'll be released at the wrong time.

I think Splatoon will be a hit with Nintendo fans. At the very least, it should sell the same as Pikmin 3. It might be the Goldeneye of the WiiU.
 

Busaiku

Member
Meh, even if Smash doesn't have huge sales, it's a true evergreen title, and will keep getting sales during the WiiU life.

Like Mario Kart 8 or Super Mario 3D World?
The only reason New Super Mario Bros U sold as well as it did was because of bundles, or else it would've completely fallen off too.
 
I don't know: it is selling better than Wii U with "almost" no games (I mean: few multiplatform games with PS3, most of them even western ones); I know that the Wii U debut was very good (I'm talking about the launch/december 2012, with New Mario, MH and Land), but or there is some mistery hidden somewhere about Wii U performances so far, or PS4 will catch up with it looking at its early '15 release schedule: if we imagine an even better lineup for the second part of 2015 (and I think it's fair to imagine this, honestly) and a possible price cut/bundle I think it will manage this "milestone" around Fall '15.

By this time next year I expect PS4 to have made up a difference of around 700k units. Around 2.4-2.5 million units for WiiU and PS4 at around 1.7-1.8 million units. Fall 2016 would be the safer bet.

I know WiiU isn't going to pass the 3.5 million unit mark by the time it's discontinued, and I doubt PS4 gets much past 5 million units before it is.
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Finally next week?

We are slowly entering holiday season. Pokemon centers also have New 3DS LL special editions, but I doubt Nintendo printed a big amount of them. December will determine the final winner and this year the only real competition appears to be Smash Wii U.
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Like Mario Kart 8 or Super Mario 3D World?
The only reason New Super Mario Bros U sold as well as it did was because of bundles, or else it would've completely fallen off too.

If Mario Kart 8 isn't an evergreen title I don't know what it is.
 
I think Splatoon will be a hit with Nintendo fans. At the very least, it should sell the same as Pikmin 3. It might be the Goldeneye of the WiiU.

you do realize Goldeneye sold over 8 million right

anyway Splatoon is probably the one title Nintendo has that has the largest potential sales range (relative to....whatever you might consider the "average" expectation), because who knows how the Wii U audience will take to this
 
Huh kind of an odd week. Winning eleven bomba probably isn't too surprising considering the trends for the series of late.

I would've thought the new MK8 Wii U bundle would've done a bit more for its hw sales but oh well. Toad seems to have opened quite softly but I doubt it has a huge budget to overcome for profitability. PS4's uptick is interesting, I would probably wager it's more due to new software as the new bundles for it appear to be limited to the Sony store and not that great a deal.

What caused the Vita to rise?
 

UberTag

Member
I love the palpable tension as we wait for the Vita to join everyone else in the declining platforms lounge. Will it be next week? The week after?! Stay tuned.
Sony has been so bound and determined to cut the legs out from under the Vita that they're even abandoning a market that gravitates towards handhelds with open arms.

I'm somewhat worried about mid-tier titles in Japan's even more pronounced all-3DS future. Thinking we'll see more devs flock to mobile and smartphones now that they won't have a thriving platform to release their titles on without getting smothered by the Monster Hunters / Yo-kai Watches / Pokemons / Nintendo first-party megahits of the day.

Clearly One Piece can't cut it against those juggernauts.
 
I feel so bad for EAD Tokyo. They're making some of the best games period and nobody is playing them because of the console they're on. Hope morale doesn't take a hit.

30.000 people are nobody?

I think the developers are pleased with the reaction of critics and gamers. 30.000 or 30 mio is not much a difference from a developers perspective if you get paid for your work and not for the amount of copies sold and your work is appreciated.
 

Spiegel

Member
Huh kind of an odd week. Winning eleven bomba probably isn't too surprising considering the trends for the series of late.

I would've thought the new MK8 Wii U bundle would've done a bit more for its hw sales but oh well. Toad seems to have opened quite softly but I doubt it has a huge budget to overcome for profitability. PS4's uptick is interesting, I would probably wager it's more due to new software as the new bundles for it appear to be limited to the Sony store and not that great a deal.

What caused the Vita to rise?

Pink Vita
 

Balb

Member
30.000 people are nobody?

I think the developers are pleased with the reaction of critics and gamers. 30.000 or 30 mio is not much a difference from a developers perspective if you get paid for your work and not for the amount of copies sold and your work is appreciated.

30k is pretty much nothing for a developer of this caliber.
 

ZSaberLink

Media Create Maven
Code:
		Wii U sales
           	2014		2013

Week 44		3,623		40,118 - 2013 - holiday bundles release + Wii Party U
Week 45		3,884		14,060 
Week 46		12,063		14,006 - 2014 - Mario Kart 8 bundle + Captain Toad
Week 47		?		20,177 - 2013 - Super Mario 3D World + Taiko Wii U, 2014 - Taiko Wii U 2
Week 48		?		27,325 - 2014 - Smash Wii U + Amiibo + Kamen Rider: Summonride
Week 49		?		46,773
Week 50		?		72,982
Week 51		?		119,159
Week 52		?		 79,174

Can we just blame everything on Abe yet =(....

I think Toad will do fine for what it is. Toad hitting 100K or so by the end of the year wouldn't be too bad if it gets there. It's definitely cheaper than DKC:TF or a # of other titles on Wii U that have failed to/barely hit that mark. Taiko started at 19K but managed to get up to 150K, so it's not unheard of. At least in theory Nintendo will have a lot of family friendly titles to advertise this holiday season. We'll see how much that helps...

(MK8 bundle, Captain Toad, Smash Wii U, Taiko Wii U 2, & Kamen Rider w/ Amiibos)
 
Woah, I missed that it had topped a million this week. Score!

I love the palpable tension as we wait for the Vita to join everyone else in the declining platforms lounge. Will it be next week? The week after?! Stay tuned.


[PSV] Phantasy Star Online 2 - 85pt
[PSV] Phantasy Star Nova - 125pt

+50% of preorders but it won't sell 600k...

so it will be a bomba, a disaster, the bottom of the pits of the hell and so on
 
Toad will be fine. It looks like an incredibly cheap project intended to fill the line up.

It's probably the best possible use of resources towards the Wii U's subsistence for the next year and a half.

Also, looking at those numbers, and the current YTD disparity Y/Y... it's looking more and more likely that 2013 was the peak year for the Wii U... :/
 
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