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Media Create Sales: Week 47, 2014 (Nov 17 - Nov 23)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
vinnygambini
Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
Than you hiska-kun.
2 million should be within grasp by week 2 then; that ain't half bad actually.
I don't think it's going to surpass HeartGold & SoulSilver but it should sell better than LeafGreen & FireRed.
It's a success in my book but Pokemon needs a bit more umph going forward albeit still very much a strong brand, almost 20 years now.
Moor-Angol
Banned
56% off on amazon, woah....
If MC has access to Pokémon Center sales, it is due to the exclusives models. Or they just extrapolated anyway.
http://www.pokemon.co.jp/info/2014/09/140912_p02.html?p006=msign
As for old 3da, cheapos who Just wanted to play the latest pokeyman.
Comgnet retail store chain: preorders stats / comparisons, as of November 26th, 2014
[3DS] Yokai Watch 2: Ganso / Honke - 446pt + 342pt = 788pt
[3DS] Yokai Watch 2: Star Performer - 1,377pt
[Wii U] Mario Kart 8 - 182pt
[3DS] Super Smash Bros. for Nintendo 3DS - 709pt
[Wii U] Super Smash Bros. for Wii U - 149pt + 32pt = 181pt
[PSV] Phantasy Star Online 2 - 105pt
[PSV] Phantasy Star Nova - 153pt
[PS3] Shining Resonance - 59pt + 40pt = 99pt
[3DS] Etrian Odyssey Untold: Millennium Girl - 76pt
[3DS] Etrian Odyssey Untold II: The Knight of Fafnir - 85pt
[3DS] Final Fantasy Explorers - 49pt
[PS3] Gundam Breaker - 104pt
[PSV] Gundam Breaker 2 - 32pt
[PS3] Gundam Breaker 2 - 28pt
* = Comg preorder pts from 2011/2012
** = Comg preorder pts up to 2010
Note: Comgnet's ratio between actual sales and pts has grown overall in the past year / years, and older preorder points are not as reliable for comparisons as most recent ones, especially if they are from years and years ago
[3DS] Yokai Watch 2: Ganso / Honke - 446pt + 342pt = 788pt
[3DS] Yokai Watch 2: Star Performer - 1,377pt
[Wii U] Mario Kart 8 - 182pt
[3DS] Super Smash Bros. for Nintendo 3DS - 709pt
[Wii U] Super Smash Bros. for Wii U - 149pt + 32pt = 181pt
[PSV] Phantasy Star Online 2 - 105pt
[PSV] Phantasy Star Nova - 153pt
[PS3] Shining Resonance - 59pt + 40pt = 99pt
[3DS] Etrian Odyssey Untold: Millennium Girl - 76pt
[3DS] Etrian Odyssey Untold II: The Knight of Fafnir - 85pt
[3DS] Final Fantasy Explorers - 49pt
[PS3] Gundam Breaker - 104pt
[PSV] Gundam Breaker 2 - 32pt
[PS3] Gundam Breaker 2 - 28pt
* = Comg preorder pts from 2011/2012
** = Comg preorder pts up to 2010
Note: Comgnet's ratio between actual sales and pts has grown overall in the past year / years, and older preorder points are not as reliable for comparisons as most recent ones, especially if they are from years and years ago
Last thread I talked about how I felt the 3DS was nearing saturation, but I think the Vita is actually in a worse position on that front.
It's a system that pretty much only appeals to people who want games targeted at the 14-22 year old core and/or otaku audience for niche and mid-tier games and aren't satisfied with just having a 3DS.
At its current LTD with no signs of mega sellers in the horizon, the line-up from here on out basically consists of games that appeal to the exact same audience that already owns the system.
There's not even a minor upgrade incentive at this point and the audience it is trying to address is inherently quite a bit smaller so the rate of natural acquisition (people suddenly entering the target audience) is pretty low.
small44
Member
But most of the games are niche games that don't sell systems
Vita slim,Vita tv(i guess),Final Fantasy X1/X2 and God eater
Pennywise83
Banned
At this point, the 5.5-6m mark many thought for PSV during 2014 seems out of reach.
Captain Smoker
Member
Usually this week and next week should be the "real" start.
Maybe he means lifetime in Japan? Basically N64/Saturn numbers, which wouldn't be so bad historically.
theprodigy
Member
Media Create (2013)
Week 47: 21.002 (Super Mario 3D World)
Week 48: 28.518
Week 49: 48.762
Week 50: 74.903
Week 51: 109.113
Week 52: 73.178
Famitsu (2013)
Week 47: 20.177 (Super Mario 3D World)
Week 48: 27.325
Week 49: 46.773
Week 50: 72.982
Week 51: 119.159
Week 52: 79.174
presumably, it should start going up next week
Pennywise83
Banned
sörine;140496007 said:
Yes. I guess the relatively good PSV numbers of the first 2014 half gave more reasons to people that the platform would have not ended below 4.5m units, and would have reached the N64 sales.
If I had to make some LTD guesses at this point...
The Vita, assuming it has two more years on the market, would probably land in the 4.5-5 million mark (only needs an average of about 500K a year), which would put it a bit below half of the PS3 audience and a fourth of the PSP audience, which sounds about right for a system with the same target demographic, but none of the major exclusive hits. I'm still assuming it's the end of the road for Sony portables so that audience will be up for grabs next gen (be it traditional or non traditional platforms).
The 3DS, assuming a replacement in 2016, would end around 22-24 million (if we assume 2.5 million next year, 2 million the next, and then 1-2 million in the post 4DS era). I could see it falling short of that though if it declines rapidly instead of gradually from where it is now, which is why I include 22 million on the bottom end. That would leave it at about 2/3rds of what the DS sold, which isn't disasterous, suggesting that taking a large block of the PSP's audience did stave off a fair amount of casual decline. That said it's still an LTD that's only a few million past the PSP itself, which places it firmly in the same sales band despite in theory having the most audiences you would expect a dedicated device to muster in modern times.
At this point hitting 500K would be a miracle for the Xbox One so maybe setting the bar down to 100-200K there.
The Wii U is tracking to maybe... 3-3.5 million? Assuming three more years on the market would require 333-500K a year for that, which if we average it out over the three of them doesn't seem unreasonable to fall in that range. That would be about a fourth of the Wii audience which suggests that's about how many notably enthusiastic Nintendo fans there are with some allowances for family holiday buyers and a couple of niche audiences.
I'm bearish on the PS4, but need to see how it responds to having any software first before I feel remotely comfortable guessing LTDs.
thesaucetastic
Unconfirmed Member
Pokemon stays winning.
I need this.
13./00. [3DS] Sumikko Gurashi: Koko ga Ochitsukundesu <ETC> (Nippon Columbia) {2014.11.20} (¥5.184) - 11.656 / NEW
Next 3DS sleeper-hit! I'm calling it!
I need this.
Pennywise83
Banned
Sorry, "during 2014" was related to people's thoughts, not to the 5.5-6m prediction. This would be LTD.
distantmantra
Member
360 : Assassin's Creed ( Ubisoft ) { 2007-11-29 } - 34,054 / 55,261
PS3 : Assassin's Creed ( Ubisoft ) { 2008-01-31 } - 36,898 / 82,459
PS3 : Assassin's Creed II ( Ubisoft ) { 2009-12-03 } - 55,789 / 109,813
360 : Assassin's Creed II ( Ubisoft ) { 2009-12-03 } - 28,085 / 40,837
PSP : Assassin's Creed: Bloodlines ( Ubisoft ) { 2009-12-23 } - 16,221 / 39,202
PS3 : Assassin's Creed: Brotherhood ( Ubisoft ) { 2010-12-09 } - 39,198 / 78,922
360 : Assassin's Creed: Brotherhood ( Ubisoft ) { 2010-12-09 } - 11,766 / 19,181
PS3 : Assassin's Creed: Revelations ( Ubisoft ) { 2011-12-01 } - 40,440 / 66,358
360 : Assassin's Creed: Revelations ( Ubisoft ) { 2011-12-01 } - 7,162 / 11,926
PS3 : Assassin's Creed III ( Ubisoft ) { 2012-11-15 } - 85,918 / 124,159
PSV : Assassin's Creed III: Liberation ( Ubisoft ) { 2012-11-15 } - 22,110 / 33,481
360 : Assassin's Creed III ( Ubisoft ) { 2012-11-15 } - 8,791 / 11,191
WIU : Assassin's Creed III ( Ubisoft ) { 2012-12-08 } - - / 7,311
PS3 : Assassin's Creed IV: Black Flag ( Ubisoft ) { 2013-11-28 } - 50,032 / 65,733
PS4 : Assassin's Creed IV: Black Flag ( Ubisoft ) { 2014-02-22 } - 12,885 / 41,339
PS4 : Assassin's Creed Unity ( Ubisoft ) { 2014-11-20 } - 43,838 / NEW
When is Rogue launching in Japan? Weird that it wasn't same day with Unity like in the west.
PS2 : Dynasty Warriors 4: Empires ( Koei ) { 2004-03-18 } - 153,045 / 316,763
PS2 : Dynasty Warriors 5: Empires ( Koei ) { 2006-03-23 } - 53,542 / 144,872
360 : Dynasty Warriors 5: Empires ( Koei ) { 2006-03-23 } - 2,142 / 3,408
PS3 : Dynasty Warriors 6: Empires ( Koei ) { 2009-05-28 } - 78,680 / 153,065
360 : Dynasty Warriors 6: Empires ( Koei ) { 2009-05-28 } - 17,269 / 32,811
PSP : Dynasty Warriors 6: Empires ( Koei ) { 2010-01-21 } - 13,741 / 43,617
PS3 : Dynasty Warriors 7: Empires ( Koei Tecmo ) { 2012-11-08 } - 67,358 / 103,800
PS3 : Dynasty Warriors 8 Empires ( Koei Tecmo ) { 2014-11-20 } - 35,627 / NEW
PS4 : Dynasty Warriors 8 Empires ( Koei Tecmo ) { 2014-11-20 } - 12,252 / NEW
Worst debut for an Empires release. While it's a smaller title, I'm kind of surprised by how low the PS4 figures are. It's the first in the series that launched simultaneously but numbers are a smidge worse than DW8 XL and just a bit better than SW4 and WO3 on PS4.
PS3 : Assassin's Creed ( Ubisoft ) { 2008-01-31 } - 36,898 / 82,459
PS3 : Assassin's Creed II ( Ubisoft ) { 2009-12-03 } - 55,789 / 109,813
360 : Assassin's Creed II ( Ubisoft ) { 2009-12-03 } - 28,085 / 40,837
PSP : Assassin's Creed: Bloodlines ( Ubisoft ) { 2009-12-23 } - 16,221 / 39,202
PS3 : Assassin's Creed: Brotherhood ( Ubisoft ) { 2010-12-09 } - 39,198 / 78,922
360 : Assassin's Creed: Brotherhood ( Ubisoft ) { 2010-12-09 } - 11,766 / 19,181
PS3 : Assassin's Creed: Revelations ( Ubisoft ) { 2011-12-01 } - 40,440 / 66,358
360 : Assassin's Creed: Revelations ( Ubisoft ) { 2011-12-01 } - 7,162 / 11,926
PS3 : Assassin's Creed III ( Ubisoft ) { 2012-11-15 } - 85,918 / 124,159
PSV : Assassin's Creed III: Liberation ( Ubisoft ) { 2012-11-15 } - 22,110 / 33,481
360 : Assassin's Creed III ( Ubisoft ) { 2012-11-15 } - 8,791 / 11,191
WIU : Assassin's Creed III ( Ubisoft ) { 2012-12-08 } - - / 7,311
PS3 : Assassin's Creed IV: Black Flag ( Ubisoft ) { 2013-11-28 } - 50,032 / 65,733
PS4 : Assassin's Creed IV: Black Flag ( Ubisoft ) { 2014-02-22 } - 12,885 / 41,339
PS4 : Assassin's Creed Unity ( Ubisoft ) { 2014-11-20 } - 43,838 / NEW
When is Rogue launching in Japan? Weird that it wasn't same day with Unity like in the west.
PS2 : Dynasty Warriors 4: Empires ( Koei ) { 2004-03-18 } - 153,045 / 316,763
PS2 : Dynasty Warriors 5: Empires ( Koei ) { 2006-03-23 } - 53,542 / 144,872
360 : Dynasty Warriors 5: Empires ( Koei ) { 2006-03-23 } - 2,142 / 3,408
PS3 : Dynasty Warriors 6: Empires ( Koei ) { 2009-05-28 } - 78,680 / 153,065
360 : Dynasty Warriors 6: Empires ( Koei ) { 2009-05-28 } - 17,269 / 32,811
PSP : Dynasty Warriors 6: Empires ( Koei ) { 2010-01-21 } - 13,741 / 43,617
PS3 : Dynasty Warriors 7: Empires ( Koei Tecmo ) { 2012-11-08 } - 67,358 / 103,800
PS3 : Dynasty Warriors 8 Empires ( Koei Tecmo ) { 2014-11-20 } - 35,627 / NEW
PS4 : Dynasty Warriors 8 Empires ( Koei Tecmo ) { 2014-11-20 } - 12,252 / NEW
Worst debut for an Empires release. While it's a smaller title, I'm kind of surprised by how low the PS4 figures are. It's the first in the series that launched simultaneously but numbers are a smidge worse than DW8 XL and just a bit better than SW4 and WO3 on PS4.
Sammy Samusu
Member
EO2R sold out on Amazon. Coming for that 100k debut.
3DS : Etrian Odyssey Untold: The Millenium Girl ( Atlus ) { 2013-06-27 } - 92,566 / 130,274
3DS : Etrian Odyssey IV: Legends of the Titan ( Atlus ) { 2012-07-05 } - 97,142 / 134,499
What the fuck, I thought EO1R sold a lot less.
3DS : Etrian Odyssey Untold: The Millenium Girl ( Atlus ) { 2013-06-27 } - 92,566 / 130,274
3DS : Etrian Odyssey IV: Legends of the Titan ( Atlus ) { 2012-07-05 } - 97,142 / 134,499
What the fuck, I thought EO1R sold a lot less.
Marvelous' flagship mobile game is ascending to godhood earnings tier.
Position #2 works out to about $2 million a day. (Feel free to yell at me if I forget to list things like this when making these posts. I forget it's not common knowledge.)
The new Million Arthur game is off to a strong start.
I tried labeling the chart so it would be a bit more readable.
Position #2 works out to about $2 million a day. (Feel free to yell at me if I forget to list things like this when making these posts. I forget it's not common knowledge.)
The new Million Arthur game is off to a strong start.
I tried labeling the chart so it would be a bit more readable.
Nope, Etrian Odyssey is like as consistent as you can get in terms of performance.
Atlus was actually hoping for Etrian Odyssey Untold to break that really push it into the mainstream, but it seems like Persona Q took its place.
On that note I'm curious to see what they're doing with Etrian Odyssey V.
It's the first game in a post PersonaQ world and my opinion at the time was that they should either up the production values on EO's new entries (as in the ones that aren't remakes) or focus on PersonaQ games if they want to capitalize on the expanded audience.
It's the first game in a post PersonaQ world and my opinion at the time was that they should either up the production values on EO's new entries (as in the ones that aren't remakes) or focus on PersonaQ games if they want to capitalize on the expanded audience.
Not out yet in Japan.
Pennywise83
Banned
Finally Marvelous can invest some serious money in RF!
Well, I guess Rune Factory's concept does seem like a pretty good fit for mobile. >_>
Gotta sell the 100k copies shipped to retailers
The Knight of Fafnir is actually the first game post Persona Q.
Evidenced by The Millennium Girl, there doesn't seem to be any distinction by consumers for the main series vs Untold.
I would hate that so much...
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
Never thought I would see the day where a One Piece game would go to bomba bins.
Won't mind to see it honestly.
I don't know why I am kinda glad to see Marvelous being successful.
Pennywise83
Banned
Then you were not around here when One Piece Musou 2 was released.
Software sales make the big difference between PSP and 3DS, even with 3DS having much less releases. There isn't a comparison when you count them.
Moor-Angol
Banned
this means 2.5 alone might have a better opening week than 2 titles combined?
and considering that this week preorders might pass ORAS ones (1553pt), could it have a 1,5mln opening?
around 50% more but I already can hear the "Nova bomba" approaching....
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
I just looked and it was at 80-100% on its 3rd week.
This is at 20-40% after what 2 weeks.....yeah no.
Yes, but I kind of view the EO remakes as things with pre-determined budgets and scopes from ages ago whereas Etrian Odyssey V is a fully new thing unto itself.
Do we know anything new about EOV other than that it is a thing named EOV?
Would the combat and stuff work that well on mobile? I can't say I've ever played much in the way of a game with combat and the sort that handles well outside of 2D scrollers or TBC on my phone.
Marvelous' flagship mobile game is ascending to godhood earnings tier.
Position #2 works out to about $2 million a day. (Feel free to yell at me if I forget to list things like this when making these posts. I forget it's not common knowledge.)
The new Million Arthur game is off to a strong start.
I tried labeling the chart so it would be a bit more readable.
NCL should be ashamed of themselves if they don't put together hardware that can support mobiles IPs. Kudos to Marvellous.
It's the first main title that will have results from then experiments of Untold and PersonaQ, even!
Coulomb_Barrier
Member
If, *IF* Capcom has a big exclusive IP for the PS4, like Monster Hunter (not happening) or Dragon's Dogma, they may be able to help the system sell in Jap....actually who am I kidding.
I don't think their big secret game is a Sony exclusive.
I don't think their big secret game is a Sony exclusive.
Why would it matter for Japan if it is a Sony exclusive?
Since it seems nobody else pointed it out, I thought you might want to know that 剣と魔法のログレス いにしえの女神 is actually 'Ken to Mahou no Logres : Inishie no Megami'.
Seems like they put it through chinese auto translate instead of japanese and ended up with the 'Jianto...' thing.
Prediction League October 2014 Results
Congratulations to:
- Orgen, for winning twice by units and mean error %!
It's the name in the Apple store, Appannie just copied it. https://itunes.apple.com/jp/app/jianto-mo-fanoroguresu-inishieno/id700626925?mt=8
I don't know who decides the url -- Apple or the publisher, but, yes, it is not the actual name.
The currently official english translation is "Logres of Swords and Sorcery: Goddess of Ancient."
Congratulations to:
- Orgen, for winning twice by units and mean error %!
Code:
BY UNITS BY MEAN ERROR %
1 105,608 Orgen 1 11.95% Orgen
2 181,657 Road 2 17.74% Mr Swine
3 192,714 XDDX 3 20.94% MasterSheen
4 235,082 Bruno MB 4 21.91% Road
5 248,323 theprodigy 5 22.81% XDDX
6 248,496 Yeshua 6 23.33% Bruno MB
7 260,908 random25 7 23.59% Welfare
8 265,646 Mr Swine 8 26.39% random25
9 271,082 MasterSheen 9 26.74% frankie_baby
10 283,082 Welfare 10 27.38% theprodigy
11 303,909 sörine 11 27.92% Lexxus
12 323,082 DrWong 12 28.80% bakman21
13 338,816 Tripon 13 30.56% sörine
14 375,082 Eolz 14 31.78% Yeshua
15 411,088 Atram 15 32.21% Ty4on
16 445,588 Lexxus 16 32.27% metalslimer
17 478,082 bakman21 17 32.38% Mpl90
18 514,082 Gianni Merryman 18 33.44% Atram
19 528,496 1st Course 19 34.20% Eolz
20 529,082 frankie_baby 20 35.20% DrWong
21 561,334 Nintendojitsu 21 36.20% 1st Course
22 566,302 Smiles and Cries 22 36.35% Tripon
23 566,342 Chris1964 23 36.71% Chris1964
24 592,082 metalslimer 24 36.88% Smiles and Cries
25 610,840 astrogamer 25 37.03% Nintendojitsu
26 627,748 Ty4on 26 37.72% astrogamer
27 780,588 jonno394 27 38.59% jonno394
28 902,052 Mpl90 28 39.66% Gianni Merryman
28 |FAMITSU |astrogame|frankie_b|Chris1964|jonno394 |Lexxus |Atram |sörine |MasterShe|bakman21 |metalslim|Gianni Me|Tripon |Welfare |Mr Swine |Orgen |DrWong |random25 |Nintendoj|Mpl90 |Eolz |Road |theprodig|Bruno MB |XDDX |Yeshua |Ty4on |1st Cours|Smiles an
[3DS] New 3DS Hardware | 120672| 100000| 180000| 210987| 299999| 185000| 350500| 247973| 150000| 190000| 275000| 300000| 250000| 136000| 120000| 188000| 237000| 250000| 255000| 216000| 280000| 199999| 222222| 175000| 220000| 250000| 225000| 240000| 415000
[3DS] New 3DS LL Hardware | 284490| 130000| 220000| 234567| 249999| 155000| 250000| 205896| 210000| 257000| 225000| 220000| 350000| 284000| 150000| 295000| 211000| 300000| 145000| 227892| 275000| 266666| 222222| 230000| 230000| 280000| 125000| 160000| 145000
[3DS] Monster Hunter 4G | 2026454| 1700000| 2350000| 2345678| 2499999| 2205000| 2100000| 1976823| 2109000| 2300000| 2345000| 2200000| 2000000| 2175000| 1950000| 2043000| 2075000| 2100000| 2250000| 1324555| 2139000| 1999999| 2000000| 2080000| 2022222| 2000000| 1700000| 1800000| 1950000
[PS3] Kingdom Hearts HD 2.5 | 141753| 140000| 170000| 123456| 119999| 125000| 130000| 137088| 145000| 170000| 155000| 175000| 210000| 182000| 132000| 141000| 177000| 150000| 170000| 135233| 168000| 166666| 166666| 155000| 155555| 120000| 120000| 130000| 130000
[PS4+PS3] Evil Within | 120374| 60000| 75000| 56789| 64999| 65000| 75000| 89485| 40000| 47000| 80000| 82000| 75000| 69000| 87000| 112000| 91000| 100000| 145000| 141078| 71000| 99999| 98765| 75000| 133333| 70000| 130000| 90000| 85000
[3DS] Tales of the World Reve Unitia | 53903| 101000| 62000| 78901| 69999| 55000| 70000| 66732| 55000| 60000| 60000| 79000| 50000| 81000| 43000| 56000| 74000| 40000| 65000| 74906| 72000| 66666| 65432| 68000| 46000| 70000| 60000| 70000| 45000
TOTAL ABS. DIFF. | | 610,840| 529,082| 566,342| 780,588| 445,588| 411,088| 303,909| 271,082| 478,082| 592,082| 514,082| 338,816| 283,082| 265,646| 105,608| 323,082| 260,908| 561,334| 902,052| 375,082| 181,657| 248,323| 235,082| 192,714| 248,496| 627,748| 528,496| 566,302
MEAN ERROR % | | 37.72%| 26.74%| 36.71%| 38.59%| 27.92%| 33.44%| 30.56%| 20.94%| 28.80%| 32.27%| 39.66%| 36.35%| 23.59%| 17.74%| 11.95%| 35.20%| 26.39%| 37.03%| 32.38%| 34.20%| 21.91%| 27.38%| 23.33%| 22.81%| 31.78%| 32.21%| 36.20%| 36.88%
STATISTICS | FAMITSU| GAF_AVG| MIN| MAX| UNDER| OVER| CLOSEST BY
[3DS] New 3DS Hardware | 120,672| 227,453| 100,000| 415,000| 7%| 93%| 120,000 Mr Swine
[3DS] New 3DS LL Hardware | 284,490| 223,366| 125,000| 350,000| 89%| 11%| 284,000 Welfare
[3DS] Monster Hunter 4G |2,026,454|2,062,153|1,324,555|2,499,999| 43%| 57%|2,022,222 XDDX
[PS3] Kingdom Hearts HD 2.5 | 141,753| 149,988| 119,999| 210,000| 46%| 54%| 141,000 Orgen
[PS4+PS3] Evil Within | 120,374| 86,016| 40,000| 145,000| 86%| 14%| 112,000 Orgen
[3DS] Tales of the World Reve Unitia | 53,903| 64,451| 40,000| 101,000| 18%| 82%| 55,000 LexxusIt's the name in the Apple store, Appannie just copied it. https://itunes.apple.com/jp/app/jianto-mo-fanoroguresu-inishieno/id700626925?mt=8
I don't know who decides the url -- Apple or the publisher, but, yes, it is not the actual name.
The currently official english translation is "Logres of Swords and Sorcery: Goddess of Ancient."