200k? 250k?
I expected a better transition from RE6 to RE7 comparing to FFXIII to FFXV, later I start to have doubts.
If FFXV has a 40-50% decline at LTD, RE7 could be worse.
200k? 250k?
--------------------------------------------------------
| Model | This Week | Week(%) | FY 2016 | FY(%) |
--------------------------------------------------------
| 3DS | 505,140 | 58.2% | 8,618,716 | 47.6% |
| PS4 | 176,508 | 20.3% | 4,710,951 | 26.0% |
| Vita | 146,099 | 16.8% | 2,667,445 | 14.7% |
| PS3 | 20,254 | 2.3% | 1,009,154 | 5.6% |
| Wii U | 19,816 | 2.3% | 1,066,575 | 5.9% |
| X One | 415 | 0.0% | 25,950 | 0.1% |
--------------------------------------------------------
| Total | 868,232 | 100.0% | 18,098,791 | 100.0% |
--------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------
| Model | This Week | Week(%) | FY 2016 | FY(%) |
--------------------------------------------------------
| 3DS | 52,897 | 40.5% | 842,098 | 33.2% |
| PS4 | 44,887 | 34.3% | 992,041 | 39.1% |
| 2DS | 18,886 | 14.5% | 126,680 | 5.0% |
| Vita | 10,634 | 8.1% | 384,851 | 15.2% |
| Wii U | 2,378 | 1.8% | 158,767 | 6.3% |
| X One | 508 | 0.4% | 3,163 | 0.1% |
| PS3 | 488 | 0.4% | 29,719 | 1.2% |
--------------------------------------------------------
| Total | 130,678 | 100.0% | 2,537,319 | 100.0% |
--------------------------------------------------------
Dragon Quest XI is the only one which can try to do better than FFXV but it also depends on when the game will be released, and whether the 3DS version is out early.I think we've also chewed through at least half the hypothetical biggest games the PS4 will get in Japan by the time RE7 comes out.
What's even left? Kingdom Hearts III, one of three versions of Dragon Quest XI, and Final Fantasy VII: Part I of III?
Are there even any unannounced but expected games that could be big? I guess maybe Death Stranding could make it out this generation, or Tales could try and do something with the first PS4 only game.
I think we've also chewed through at least half the hypothetical biggest games the PS4 will get in Japan by the time RE7 comes out.
What's even left? Kingdom Hearts III, one of three versions of Dragon Quest XI, and Final Fantasy VII: Part I of III?
Are there even any unannounced but expected games that could be big? I guess maybe Death Stranding could make it out this generation, or Tales could try and do something with the first PS4 only game.
Not surprised to see the decline for FFXV, Yakuza 6 and REVII. Heck I wasn't shocked to see Yakuza 6 getting localized. As for FFXV and REVII, they are both marketed heavily in the West so it seems like the developers already know the market is close to dying in Japan.
Dragon Quest XI is the only one which can try to do better than FFXV but it also depends on when the game will be released, and whether the 3DS version is out early.
What's even left? Kingdom Hearts III, one of three versions of Dragon Quest XI, and Final Fantasy VII: Part I of III?
It also depends on how big of a success the Switch is as that version might eat intp the PS4 version heavily.
They missed the potential to capitalize of the Frozen popularity and since I don't see the game releasing in 2018 at the earliest, I doubt anyone would care about it by then.Ōkami;225995619 said:I wonder what Kingdom Hearts III could do, it'll be out over a decade after II and it being such a convoluted storyline I wonder how many people have played all the necesary games, let alone still care about the series at all.
If it sells half of what I & II did it'd be surprising.
Sales of Yakuza are interesting seeing how it'll be the fourth Yakuza game on PS4 (which is not even 3 years out!) so it's not like the fanbase hasn't had time to migrate over, though many might still be on PS3 seeing how Kiwami on PS4 didn't outsold the PS3 version that much, though there's always next year's Yakuza game I guess.
I think we've also chewed through at least half the hypothetical biggest games the PS4 will get in Japan by the time RE7 comes out.
What's even left? Kingdom Hearts III, one of three versions of Dragon Quest XI, and Final Fantasy VII: Part I of III?
Are there even any unannounced but expected games that could be big? I guess maybe Death Stranding could make it out this generation, or Tales could try and do something with the first PS4 only game.
I think we've also chewed through at least half the hypothetical biggest games the PS4 will get in Japan by the time RE7 comes out.
What's even left? Kingdom Hearts III, one of three versions of Dragon Quest XI, and Final Fantasy VII: Part I of III?
Are there even any unannounced but expected games that could be big? I guess maybe Death Stranding could make it out this generation, or Tales could try and do something with the first PS4 only game.
Half million easily.Knack 2, obvs.
Right, that's what I meant by "hypothetical biggest games".What is the definition for big anymore though? When we have >2 million franchises like FF struggling to hit a million now, <300k franchises like Persona overperforming at >500k, and >500k franchises like Yakuza doing less than Persona now, the landscape is totally changed. I don't think we can so easily pick pre-existing successfully franchises and say "this is be a big title because the last one 6 years ago was" but at the same time, I don't think we should underestimate the potential for growth on things which are moving in a different direction.
Hot take: It will be interesting to see how RDR2 and GTAVI do in the next 5-10 years in Japan, if there is still a console market when GTAVI is released.
I think we've also chewed through at least half the hypothetical biggest games the PS4 will get in Japan by the time RE7 comes out.
What's even left? Kingdom Hearts III, one of three versions of Dragon Quest XI, and Final Fantasy VII: Part I of III?
Are there even any unannounced but expected games that could be big? I guess maybe Death Stranding could make it out this generation, or Tales could try and do something with the first PS4 only game.
Perhaps a Dragon Quest Builders 2 with online multiplayer could be a big deal.
I think we've also chewed through at least half the hypothetical biggest games the PS4 will get in Japan by the time RE7 comes out.
What's even left? Kingdom Hearts III, one of three versions of Dragon Quest XI, and Final Fantasy VII: Part I of III?
Are there even any unannounced but expected games that could be big? I guess maybe Death Stranding could make it out this generation, or Tales could try and do something with the first PS4 only game.
That will depend on if the game is good.I wonder if Nioh will catch interest in Japan.
That will depend on if the game is good.
It's very good. :]
I imagine it will attract the Japanese "Soulsborne" base, so you have your theoretical maximums there.
GTA VI =P. Maybe GTA V was once in a series hit in Japan though.
YSO predictions
01. [PS4] Yakuza 6: The Song of Life < 250k (average 225k)
02. [3DS] Pokemon Sun / Moon < 180k (average 150k)
03. [PS4] Final Fantasy XV < 90k (average 80k)
00. [PS4] The Last Guardian < 60k (average 55k)
PS2 ICO [All Versions] 15.940 / 196.016 SCE 12/6/2001
PS2 Shadow of the Colossus [All Versions] 129.492 / 233.074 SCE 10/27/2005
PS3 The ICO and Shadow of the Colossus Collection 90.222 / 108.954 SCE 9/22/2011
PS3 Shadow of the Colossus 16.656 / 45.174 SCE 9/22/2011
PS3 ICO 7.681 / 24.031 SCE 9/22/2011
Nearly half my life in development and sells worse than the HD remasters. Never underestimate the power of PS4.
Ughhhh. Man this is tough to read.
But honestly, if Sony/PS4 can't sell all these big and hyped consoles games, then no one can.
It's time for Sony to make their own Switch: console version for the west and handheld for Japan.
I won't even drag Sony for copying Nintendo again, it's the only solution at this point.
But honestly, if Sony/PS4 can't sell all these big and hyped consoles games, then no one can.
It's time for Sony to make their own Switch: console version for the west and handheld for Japan.
I won't even drag Sony for copying Nintendo again, it's the only solution at this point.
^ Sony is aware about situation in Japan
Sony doesn't really have to though. PS4 is a massive success without Japan and the publishers aren't dropping the platform any time soon.
Of course they are. They've killed so many Vita games and still try to kill Vita.
Yeah, who needs more money right? I'm sure Sony doesn't care about their domestic market! Let Nintendo have all the yens, hahaha!
That's why they made ForwardWorks.Yeah, who needs more money right? I'm sure Sony doesn't care about their domestic market! Let Nintendo have all the yens, hahaha!
Yeah, who needs more money right? I'm sure Sony doesn't care about their domestic market! Let Nintendo have all the yens, hahaha!
Sigh... at this pace this isn't going to be much of a dedicated game industry in Japan even for the Switch to try and revitalize...
Also what are we expecting the PS4 to sell by the end of this year? 1.6-1.8M?
But honestly, if Sony/PS4 can't sell all these big and hyped consoles games, then no one can.
It's time for Sony to make their own Switch: console version for the west and handheld for Japan.
I won't even drag Sony for copying Nintendo again, it's the only solution at this point.
What would be the appeal in a new Sony handheld now that the Nintendo handheld is this powerful? Obviously Sony could make an even more powerful handheld, but would that small difference have an impact on handheld developers and therefore players?
Switch will mark further decline in Japanese dedicaded game market overall I'll be surprised if it will reach half of 3DS sales. Developing for Switch will be harder and more expensive than 3DS by far as everything will have to be in HD
The Japanese publishers have all reacted already.
Go open any of the financial reports from this quarter and you'll see that their strategy consists of mobile, some console and/or PC games for the West, some low budget dedicated titles for Japan, and maybe some speculative business like VR or Japanese eSports for the more ambitious companies.
The Japanese publishers have all reacted already.
Go open any of the financial reports from this quarter and you'll see that their strategy consists of mobile, some console and/or PC games for the West, some low budget dedicated titles for Japan, and maybe some speculative business like VR or Japanese eSports for the more ambitious companies.
There are very few companies left that really depend on the Japanese dedicated market. Capcom probably gets hit the most due to Monster Hunter making up so much of their revenue, but they're aggressively investing to try and gain more prominence in mobile and regain relevance overseas.
Level 5 isn't especially established on mobile, so they'd be quite harmed if all consoles/handhelds in Japan disappeared tomorrow, but we can all see what they've been trying to do lately.
I think we have to wait to see more on the system and support to really evaluate this. I was surprised by the debut video being so western centric though.Switch will mark further decline in Japanese dedicaded game market overall I'll be surprised if it will reach half of 3DS sales. Developing for Switch will be harder and more expensive than 3DS by far as everything will have to be in HD for "console mode". I expect Japan to go further into mobile with more games being like previous console experiences and non free to play.
Just wait for Switch sales they aren't going to be close to DS, 3DS line IMO.
Previous games did pretty well I thought, gtav is on another level globaly.
Switch will mark further decline in Japanese dedicaded game market overall I'll be surprised if it will reach half of 3DS sales. Developing for Switch will be harder and more expensive than 3DS by far as everything will have to be in HD for "console mode". I expect Japan to go further into mobile with more games being like previous console experiences and non free to play.
Plus it is aesthetically more japanese than souls so that might help.
ITP, Japan=the whole world.But honestly, if Sony/PS4 can't sell all these big and hyped consoles games, then no one can.
It's time for Sony to make their own Switch: console version for the west and handheld for Japan.
I won't even drag Sony for copying Nintendo again, it's the only solution at this point.