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[michaelius]

BTW does Wii Fit U need new balance board or it works with Wii Balance board ?

I must say i'm completly clueless how this game will do - will people want to buy new console to upgrade to new version ? It's not like first one was selling thanks to graphics.

And how many of those orginal Wii GFit owners still use theirs ?

 

[metalslimer]

BTW does Wii Fit U need new balance board or it works with Wii Balance board ?

I must say i'm completly clueless how this game will do - will people want to buy new console to upgrade to new version ? It's not like first one was selling thanks to graphics.

And how many of those orginal Wii GFit owners still use theirs ?

I really don't think the fitness game craze will carry over to Wii Fit U, but since I assume Nintendo is not completely insane it should work with the old balance boards.

 

[extralite]

I really don't think the fitness game craze will carry over to Wii Fit U, but since I assume Nintendo is not completely insane it should work with the old balance boards.

It does. When the Wii U was presented they emphasised that the old peripherals would still work with the U. Iwata also made a remark to the effect of "you don't want to have bought all this for nothing". I guess that was to discourage people to switch to Move or something.

The reason for an upgrade would be that you can do your exercises while the other family members watch TV. Also new exercises obviously and Miiverse closed communities for mutual cheering each other's diet efforts.

 

[metalslimer]

It does. When the Wii U was presented they emphasised that the old peripherals would still work with the U. Iwata also made a remark to the effect of "you don't want to have bought all this for nothing". I guess this is to discourage people to switch to Move or something.

The reason for an upgrade would be that you can do your exercises while the other family members watch TV. Also new exercises obviously and Miiverse closed communities for mutual cheering each other's diet efforts.

Are people going to pay 350 dollars to do this? My guess is absolutely not. These types of games will probably benefit if and when Wii U recovers but until then I don't see them doing much at all.

 

[extralite]

Are people going to pay 350 dollars to do this? My guess is absolutely not. These types of games will probably benefit if and when Wii U recovers but until then I don't see them doing much at all.

More like 280$, or less if bundled. You don't need a 32GB for Wii Fit. Also the white model should be more popular with casuals anyway. Wii Fit with balance board and console cost about the same too and in comparison with the premium model it seems cheap again.

If you have the money I don't see why you wouldn't upgrade. Obviously not all will rebuy, it really depends on how many will. Hard to tell in advance.

Edit: The dollar sum I gave is off, so let's put this in yen: 28 000.

 

[BLACK AMERICAN PSYCHO]

http://www.siliconera.com/2013/02/09/monster-monpiece-crosses-50000-in-japan/

Yay?

 

[BriBri]

I usually don't like to post the same thing in two different threads but I thought with the DQ7 release that the eShop charts would be of interest here this week...

1. (1) Animal Crossing: New Leaf
2. (--) Dragon Quest VII
3. (2) Charisou DX
4. (3) Pokémon AR Searcher
5. (4) Super Mario Bros. 3
6. (5) Puyo Puyo! Mini Version
7. (7) 10 Hyō Sō
8. (6) Super Mario Bros.
9. (14) Nazo No Mini Game
10. (12) Puyo Puyo Game Gear
11. (8) Denpa Ningen no RPG 2
12. (9) Dragon Quest X: Odekake Moshasu de Battle
13. (17) Touch Battle Tank 3D
14. (--) Professor Layton and the Miracle Mask+
15. (20) SIMPLE DL series Vol.7 THE Cheating boyfriend-assault
16. (10) Fantasy Life
17. (11) Riki Densetsu
18. (16) 3D Classics Kirby’s Dreamland
19. (--) peakvox: Mew Mew Train
20. (13) BlazBlue

I wonder how much of Animal Crossing holding onto the top spot is more of a cultural thing with the older DQ player less inclined to go digital than it is indicative of DQ7 not meeting projections?

 

[Orgen]

Prediction League 2013 - Entire Year

Predict how much these items will sell in the entire year of 2013:

[3DS] Hardware - 6.852.000
[WIU] Hardware - 2.193.000
[3DS] Pokemon X/Y - 5.111.000
[3DS] Monster Hunter 4 - 2.799.000
[3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf - 1.926.000
[3DS] Dragon Quest VII - 1.865.000
[3DS] New Super Mario Bros. 2 - 1.238.000
[WIU] New Super Mario Bros. U - 964.000
[WIU] Nintendo Land - 637.000

 

[donny2112]

Did we ever see their expectations for Brain Training? I think Nintendo realized very quickly on the 3DS after Nintendogs+Cats didn't sell millions of copies that it wasn't going to be the same market.

After a year on the market, Nintendogs is seeing ~60% decline on 3DS compared to DS. After 6 months on the market, Brain Training is seeing ~70% decline on 3DS compared to DS. I don't necessarily think these are a really great measuring sticks for Wii Fit (different type of systems), but if Wii Fit saw a 70% decline after 6 months on Wii U compared to Wii, it'd be at ~550-600K, which probably wouldn't be too bad, actually.

It's the first day, so to me it seems good.

50% first day and 75% first week are a good rule of thumb to not over/undership a game, typically.

 

[Erethian]

I usually don't like to post the same thing in two different threads but I thought with the DQ7 release that the eShop charts would be of interest here this week...

1. (1) Animal Crossing: New Leaf
2. (--) Dragon Quest VII
3. (2) Charisou DX
4. (3) Pokémon AR Searcher
5. (4) Super Mario Bros. 3
6. (5) Puyo Puyo! Mini Version
7. (7) 10 Hyō Sō
8. (6) Super Mario Bros.
9. (14) Nazo No Mini Game
10. (12) Puyo Puyo Game Gear
11. (8) Denpa Ningen no RPG 2
12. (9) Dragon Quest X: Odekake Moshasu de Battle
13. (17) Touch Battle Tank 3D
14. (--) Professor Layton and the Miracle Mask+
15. (20) SIMPLE DL series Vol.7 THE Cheating boyfriend-assault
16. (10) Fantasy Life
17. (11) Riki Densetsu
18. (16) 3D Classics Kirby’s Dreamland
19. (--) peakvox: Mew Mew Train
20. (13) BlazBlue

I wonder how much of Animal Crossing holding onto the top spot is more of a cultural thing with the older DQ player less inclined to go digital than it is indicative of DQ7 not meeting projections?

Nintendo made a big push to encourage people to buy Animal Crossing digitally. Also do we know if these charts include POSA cards bought at retail that have subsequently been activated/downloaded on the eShop?

 

[test_account]

Youch.

The sellthroughs shows one good thing at least, it shows that they didnt overship the game by a lot, so there wont be tons of unsold copies.

 

[hiska-kun]

Prediction League 2013 - Entire Year

Predict how much these items will sell in the entire year of 2013:

[3DS] Hardware - 5.999.999
[WIU] Hardware - 1.090.000
[3DS] Pokemon X/Y - 4.800.000
[3DS] Monster Hunter 4 - 3.799.000
[3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf - 1.906.000
[3DS] Dragon Quest VII - 1.465.000
[3DS] New Super Mario Bros. 2 - 658.000
[WIU] New Super Mario Bros. U - 369.000
[WIU] Nintendo Land - 271.000

 

[hongcha]

Prediction League 2013 - Entire Year


[3DS] Hardware - 5.999.999

3DS counterstop in 2013!

 

[Sir_Crocodile]

I wonder how much of Animal Crossing holding onto the top spot is more of a cultural thing with the older DQ player less inclined to go digital than it is indicative of DQ7 not meeting projections?

I thought Animal Crossing only had such high ddl numbers due to physical stock shortage?

 

[BriBri]

I thought Animal Crossing only had such high ddl numbers due to physical stock shortage?

It's been a consistent #1 for three months now with and without stock shortages.

 

[grimshawish]

The sellthroughs shows one good thing at least, it shows that they didnt overship the game by a lot, so there wont be tons of unsold copies.

True. I wonder what the situation is in the US.
Its so strange Sony would arrange a big part of its holiday around a game no one wants.

 

[extralite]

I usually don't like to post the same thing in two different threads but I thought with the DQ7 release that the eShop charts would be of interest here this week...

1. (1) Animal Crossing: New Leaf
2. (--) Dragon Quest VII
3. (2) Charisou DX
4. (3) Pokémon AR Searcher
5. (4) Super Mario Bros. 3
6. (5) Puyo Puyo! Mini Version
7. (7) 10 Hyō Sō
8. (6) Super Mario Bros.
9. (14) Nazo No Mini Game
10. (12) Puyo Puyo Game Gear
11. (8) Denpa Ningen no RPG 2
12. (9) Dragon Quest X: Odekake Moshasu de Battle
13. (17) Touch Battle Tank 3D
14. (--) Professor Layton and the Miracle Mask+
15. (20) SIMPLE DL series Vol.7 THE Cheating boyfriend-assault
16. (10) Fantasy Life
17. (11) Riki Densetsu
18. (16) 3D Classics Kirby’s Dreamland
19. (--) peakvox: Mew Mew Train
20. (13) BlazBlue

I wonder how much of Animal Crossing holding onto the top spot is more of a cultural thing with the older DQ player less inclined to go digital than it is indicative of DQ7 not meeting projections?

The positions in brackets are very misleading. Positions on the eShop can change constantly. For example, on the day of release DQVII charted 5 after a few hours on the eShop and 4 by the end of the day (without DSi and VC, which is included here). Then it rose to 3 and 2 in the following days.

I posted earlier that Layton was on position 14. That was with the filter set to no DSi or VC. Now Layton is at 9 with that filter. So there actually was an earlier position that could have gone into the bracket here.

Single day charts do not represent the full week. Single moment charts do not even represent the full day.

As for DQVII not being able to beat AC on the eShop, we know that AC had 170000 eShop sales without download cards upfront in the first few weeks. That was the official number given by Iwata. So it's just simply huge and that should also be due to the convenience of not having to swap cards.

DQVII greatly outperforms every other retail game but AC. Also sell through for the retail version indicates that shortages weren't that bad actually, so it selling this much despite no significant shortages further makes it an impressive success on the eShop.

 

[BriBri]

While these charts aren't exactly representative, they are still somewhat indicative of how the situation is. And very few charts are exactly representative of the true situation (disparity between Media Create and Famitsu, and I know in the UK where at least in the music world, certain independent stores aren't counted). I also too view the DQ7 position as very good but also see it as a sign that the audience (as in the older gamer) prefer the physical copy more-so than the younger Animal Crossing audience (who also prefer the physical copy, but to a lesser degree).

 

[Road]

Is that eShop chart for a day, week, hour?

It seems about as useful a checking how many reviews a game has on PSN.

It's been a consistent #1 for three months now with and without stock shortages.

You assume there's no shortage.

Sold-out: http://online.nojima.co.jp/front/commodity/1/4902370519969/
Sold-out: http://www.yamada-denkiweb.com/item/detail.php/2810326011
Sold-out: http://shop.tsutaya.co.jp/とびだせ-どうぶつの森-3DS/product-game-4902370519969/
Not being sold: http://joshinweb.jp/game/18120/4902370519969.html
Not being sold: http://www.biccamera.com/bicbic/jsp/w/catalog/detail.jsp?JAN_CODE=4902370519969
Sold-out, available through 3rd party: http://www.amazon.co.jp/dp/B0094E58C8/

It's possible it's easier to find in physical stores, maybe retailers are favoring stock on them instead of online.

 

[pieatorium]

True. I wonder what the situation is in the US.
Its so strange Sony would arrange a big part of its holiday around a game no one wants.

i think its pretty likely at least one of gow or last of us was supposed to be holiday last years big gun

 

[Kenka]

50% first day sell through seems a bit low for such an anticipated title.

 

[confuziz]

50% first day sell through seems a bit low for such an anticipated title.

Quite normal for DQ I think.

 

[Magicpaint]

50% first day sell through seems a bit low for such an anticipated title.

Depends on shipment to an extent. If they shipped 1 million + day 1 then how would that be considered low?

Then again as there was no announcement of that shipment milestone (like there was with DQV PS2 and DQVI DS just a day after launch) - it is probably safe to assume they didn't ship that much this time.

 

[BriBri]

Is that eShop chart for a day, week, hour?

It seems about as useful a checking how many reviews a game has on PSN.



You assume there's no shortage.

Sold-out: http://online.nojima.co.jp/front/commodity/1/4902370519969/
Sold-out: http://www.yamada-denkiweb.com/item/detail.php/2810326011
Sold-out: http://shop.tsutaya.co.jp/とびだせ-どうぶつの森-3DS/product-game-4902370519969/
Not being sold: http://joshinweb.jp/game/18120/4902370519969.html
Not being sold: http://www.biccamera.com/bicbic/jsp/w/catalog/detail.jsp?JAN_CODE=4902370519969
Sold-out, available through 3rd party: http://www.amazon.co.jp/dp/B0094E58C8/

It's possible it's easier to find in physical stores, maybe retailers are favoring stock on them instead of online.

A) I stated something akin to the eShop charts not being an exact representation but giving an indication. And more so than PSN reviews.
B) I think it's safe to assume that over some period in the 14 or so weeks of AC's release that there was not shortages.

 

[Chris1964]

B) I think it's safe to assume that over some period in the 14 or so weeks of AC's release that there was not shortages.

It would be safe if you had the sellthrough every week. Since you don't, you guess.

 

[Kenka]

RPGs (FF and DQ in particular) are quite frontloaded in Japan. If you sell 50% of your stock on Day 1, you're guaranteed there won't be another shipment.

Same for series like Super Robot Taisen and Gundam btw.

 

[slaughterking]

RPGs (FF and DQ in particular) are quite frontloaded in Japan. If you sell 50% of your stock on Day 1, you're guaranteed there won't be another shipment.

Same for series like Super Robot Taisen and Gundam btw.

DQ 'in particular' is not as frontloaded as series like Tales, especially since this is the first mainline title on the system. Selling 50% day one, and up to 80% or 85% for the week is absolutely fine.

 

[Kenka]

DQ 'in particular' is not as frontloaded as series like Tales, especially since this is the first mainline title on the system. Selling 50% day one, and up to 80% or 85% for the week is absolutely fine.

Yeah, of course evolution could have been satisfying over the weekend.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

DQ 'in particular' is not as frontloaded as series like Tales, especially since this is the first mainline title on the system.

For reference, last three new DQs, and last three remakes. And your later bit about first mainline seems right, IV DS in particular was relatively leggy.

First week as percent of LTD (original SKU only)

VIII: 63%
IX: 56%
X: 66% (through end of 2012)

IVDS: 50%
VDS: 57%
VIDS: 70%

 

[VAPitts]

The original Wii Fit wasn't a megablockbuster at launch to begin with so I doubt they expected a huge contribution from it towards that 24 million. That was just Nintendo far overestimating the potential of that launch window lineup they had and especially NSMBU.

I really don't think the fitness game craze will carry over to Wii Fit U, but since I assume Nintendo is not completely insane it should work with the old balance boards.

Are people going to pay 350 dollars to do this? My guess is absolutely not. These types of games will probably benefit if and when Wii U recovers but until then I don't see them doing much at all.

u must work at a funeral home...

 

[Sammy Samusu]

No shipment PR, no early Famitsu report.

I'm now expecting the worst.

 

[Spiegel]

No shipment PR, no early Famitsu report.

I'm now expecting the worst.

We know you are only saying this now to get surprised when it does 600-700k (at least) and post some annoying pop-gaf gif.

 

[Road]

No shipment PR, no early Famitsu report.

I'm now expecting the worst.

Do you trust Comgnet with your life? DQVII performed there similarly to DQVI.

A) I stated something akin to the eShop charts not being an exact representation but giving an indication. And more so than PSN reviews.
.

But do you know the period of the chart? (Monthly, Weekly, Daily, Hourly) I'm really more curious about that.

 

[Rock_Man]

Prediction League 2013 - Entire Year

Predict how much these items will sell in the entire year of 2013:

[3DS] Hardware - 5,950,000
[WIU] Hardware - 1,450,000
[3DS] Pokemon X/Y - 4,175,000
[3DS] Monster Hunter 4 - 4,220,000
[3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf - 1,960,000
[3DS] Dragon Quest VII - 1,575,000
[3DS] New Super Mario Bros. 2 - 710,000
[WIU] New Super Mario Bros. U - 390,000
[WIU] Nintendo Land - 350,000

 

[test_account]

True. I wonder what the situation is in the US.
Its so strange Sony would arrange a big part of its holiday around a game no one wants.

No idea, hopefully for their sake they havnt printed a lot of extra copies

I think they expected the game to be more popular.

A) I stated something akin to the eShop charts not being an exact representation but giving an indication. And more so than PSN reviews.

Arent PSN rankings a better indicator? There we know what the absolute minimum copies sold (you must have bought the game to be able to rate it).

 

[electroplankton]

No shipment PR, no early Famitsu report.

I'm now expecting the worst.

There would have been a Famitsu report if it was the biggest debut on 3DS. Probably AC still has this record.

 

[MasterSheen]

We could still get a Famitsu report tomorrow, sales announcements have been given on Tuesdays before.

 

[donny2112]

Monday is a holiday in Japan.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Foundation_Day

Subscribing to Cheesemeister's twitter account leads to all sorts of interesting data.

 

[BriBri]

It would be safe if you had the sellthrough every week. Since you don't, you guess.

The sell through doesn't necessarily equate to shortage, although I guess in relation to Animal Crossing, the pre-supposition is correct, but it is exactly that, a pre-supposition.

Do you trust Comgnet with your life? DQVII performed there similarly to DQVI.



But do you know the period of the chart? (Monthly, Weekly, Daily, Hourly) I'm really more curious about that.

It's the same as all 3DS charts, which I assume is hourly or something not too far off. If someone has exact details then please say.

No idea, hopefully for their sake they havnt printed a lot of extra copies

I think they expected the game to be more popular.



Arent PSN rankings a better indicator? There we know what the absolute minimum copies sold (you must have bought the game to be able to rate it).

You must've bought the game here for it to chart.

 

[Aad]

Prediction League 2013 - Entire Year

Predict how much these items will sell in the entire year of 2013:

[3DS] Hardware - 6,000,000
[WIU] Hardware - 2,000,000
[3DS] Pokemon X/Y - 5,000,000
[3DS] Monster Hunter 4 - 4,500,000
[3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf - 2,000,000
[3DS] Dragon Quest VII - 1,500,000
[3DS] New Super Mario Bros. 2 - 1,000,000
[WIU] New Super Mario Bros. U - 500,000
[WIU] Nintendo Land - 300,000

 

[Sammy Samusu]

Do you trust Comgnet with your life? DQVII performed there similarly to DQVI.

I do! And good to know, thanks for doing that, I was actually going to ask for Comgnet comparison.

Monday is a holiday in Japan.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Foundation_Day

Subscribing to Cheesemeister's twitter account leads to all sorts of interesting data.

LOL! I should've checked their holiday calendar.

We know you are only saying this now to get surprised when it does 600-700k (at least) and post some annoying pop-gaf gif.

 

[Mpl90]

We know you are only saying this now to get surprised when it does 600-700k (at least) and post some annoying pop-gaf gif.

Yeah, we all know his gimmick. :lol

 

[Soriku]

We know you are only saying this now to get surprised when it does 600-700k (at least) and post some annoying pop-gaf gif.

Hmm...how much does Pop GAF expect DQ VII to sell?

 

[Chris1964]

The sell through doesn't necessarily equate to shortage, although I guess in relation to Animal Crossing, the pre-supposition is correct, but it is exactly that, a pre-supposition.

If sell through doesn't equate to shortage what does?

 

[donny2112]

If sell through doesn't equate to shortage what does?

If a game is 98% sold through with 3m sold to consumers, that still leaves 60K in the market. For much lower sold games, it's more meaningful than for a game selling like Animal Crossing. When we would get some random Top 50s, the really long-sellers (e.g. NSMB, Mario Kart DS) would have like 98% sell-through, but no one was saying it was in short supply, for example.

Edit:
For the vast majority of games, they are basically equivalent, but just saying that for mega-sellers, the sell through % is less indicative of sellouts when it still leaves a large amount in absolute numbers.

 

[Chris1964]

If a game is 98% sold through with 3m sold to consumers, that still leaves 60K in the market. For much lower sold games, it's more meaningful than for a game selling like Animal Crossing. When we would get some random Top 50s, the really long-sellers (e.g. NSMB, Mario Kart DS) would have like 98% sell-through, but no one was saying it was in short supply, for example.

That's true but if a game starts with high sell sellthrough (>95%) and continues with the same rate for weeks it's definetely a problem with short supply. It's not the same when it starts with big amounts of unsold stock and finally manages to sell the initial shipment achieving low shipments/sales ratio eventually.

 

[BriBri]

If sell through doesn't equate to shortage what does?

That's not my point, my point being that you require a pre-supposition which isn't to imply that the pre-supposition (at least in this instance) is necessarily wrong.

 

[Road]

If a game is 98% sold through with 3m sold to consumers, that still leaves 60K in the market. For much lower sold games, it's more meaningful than for a game selling like Animal Crossing. When we would get some random Top 50s, the really long-sellers (e.g. NSMB, Mario Kart DS) would have like 98% sell-through, but no one was saying it was in short supply, for example.

Edit:
For the vast majority of games, they are basically equivalent, but just saying that for mega-sellers, the sell through % is less indicative of sellouts when it still leaves a large amount in absolute numbers.

You're right in the sense that 98% for a game can still mean a lot of copies available in stores, but sell-through is still the best measure for shortages we have. (As another example, Demon Gaze had sell-through was 95.6%, not 98% or 99%. For a game at 3 million copies, 95.59% would mean over 130k copies available, but in that game's case, it means only 1k copies in stores.)

Using the examples you cited, to look at another factor that must be considered, these huge selling games are usually doing 10k per week when their sell-through starts to be 98% or higher. In that case, 60k would be copies enough for weeks of sales; in the case of a game selling as strongly as New Leaf, 60k wouldn't even cover one week of sales.

As we all know, the numbers are just numbers and we have to make the correct reading of them, instead of simply attributing an arbitrary percentage value as the definitive mark of being sold-out.

 

[test_account]

You must've bought the game here for it to chart.

Sure, i just ment that there is no indicator to how much the games have sold, they only go by ranking placements. On PSN, if a game has for example 1000 rating, then we know that the game sold minimum 1000 copies. But both things can be interesting anyway i think.

 

[donny2112]

You're right in the sense that 98% for a game can still mean a lot of copies available in stores, but sell-through is still the best measure for shortages we have. (As another example, Demon Gaze had sell-through was 95.6%, not 98% or 99%. For a game at 3 million copies, 95.59% would mean over 130k copies available, but in that game's case, it means only 1k copies in stores.)

Using the examples you cited, to look at another factor that must be considered, these huge selling games are usually doing 10k per week when their sell-through starts to be 98% or higher. In that case, 60k would be copies enough for weeks of sales; in the case of a game selling as strongly as New Leaf, 60k wouldn't even cover one week of sales.

As we all know, the numbers are just numbers and we have to make the correct reading of them, instead of simply attributing an arbitrary percentage value as the definitive mark of being sold-out.

Good summary!