Media Create Sales: Week 5, 2017 (Jan 30 - Feb 05)

Oct 20, 2014
3,844
1
340
Sofia
Those Switch software sales wouldn't be awful actually, but for Splatoon to sell a million, there are going to be significantly more Switches sold than 1.4 million. Games very rarely reach the type of user base penetration that many people are expecting out of Switch software right now. Splatoon on Wii U is basically a best case scenario for attach ratio with for a single game to a piece of hardware, and that isn't even at 0.5 software/hardware ratio.

If Splatoon 2 sells close to a million, I would expect at least 2 million for the Switch. If it reaches 1.5 million, the system will sell closer to 3 million or more.
Splatoon has sold 1:1 ratio with the hardware it was on. It's at 1.5 million physical, majority of that 1.5 million was bought by people who were also buying the Wii U.

Wii U(pre-launch) - 2.337.877, while it's currently sitting at 3.319.808. Gotta keep in mind that Splatoon was only bundled with the Wii U around spring time of 2016. In December of 2015 instead of having a Splatoon bundle for example new Wii U owners were buying SMM Bundle and Splatoon separately. While when the actual bundle was release it was after the console was already receiving it's last meaningful exclusive support(Pokken & StarFox). I also think it was the most expensive bundle on top of everything else. The Wii U only sold 300k in 2016 and probably around 250k of those are the actual Splatoon Bundle.

I'm sorry I should have been clearler - I was referring to hardware ratio post launch. The people who were buying Splatoon were the people buying the Wii U. Splatoon was the main motivation behind an additional 1 million Wii U's being sold. There were a couple of other titles like SMM & Minecraft. But SMM sales stopped after it's bundle was discontinued, it only reappeared after SMR was released. In terms of Minecraft I expect it to be a very popular game on the Switch
 
Aug 30, 2007
14,209
0
0
Those Switch software sales wouldn't be awful actually, but for Splatoon to sell a million, there are going to be significantly more Switches sold than 1.4 million. Games very rarely reach the type of user base penetration that many people are expecting out of Switch software right now. Splatoon on Wii U is basically a best case scenario for attach ratio with for a single game to a piece of hardware, and that isn't even at 0.5 software/hardware ratio.

If Splatoon 2 sells close to a million, I would expect at least 2 million for the Switch. If it reaches 1.5 million, the system will sell closer to 3 million or more.
It was probably more the 3DS software and switch HW which would be awful. I still feel like those software sales would be poor for the switch but not necessarily a disaster.
 
Jun 2, 2005
7,839
0
1,185
Splatoon has sold 1:1 ratio with the hardware it was on. It's at 1.5 million physical, majority of that 1.5 million was bought by people who were also buying the Wii U.

Wii U(pre-launch) - 2.337.877, while it's currently sitting at 3.319.808. Gotta keep in mind that Splatoon was only bundled with the Wii U around spring time of 2016. In December of 2015 instead of having a Splatoon bundle for example new Wii U owners were buying SMM Bundle and Splatoon separately. While when the actual bundle was release it was after the console was already receiving it's last meaningful exclusive support(Pokken & StarFox). I also think it was the most expensive bundle on top of everything else. The Wii U only sold 300k in 2016 and probably around 250k of those are the actual Splatoon Bundle.
That's not how it works. A good portion of Splatoon sales were to people that already had the system when the game released. It certainly boosted the system overall, but that doesn't mean it had a 1:1 ratio with the overall install base of the Wii U.
 
Oct 20, 2014
3,844
1
340
Sofia
That's not how it works. A good portion of Splatoon sales were to people that already had the system when the game released. It certainly boosted the system overall, but that doesn't mean it had a 1:1 ratio with the overall install base of the Wii U.
I'm saying that it's very likely that 90% of owners who bought Wii U after May 2015 bought Splatoon. Or in otherwords bought Wii U to play Splatoon.
The existing Wii U owners(bought prior to May 2015) only around 1/3 ended up buying it perhaps the other 2/3 simply weren't interested in the game, perhaps some moved on to a different devices. We don't really know, but Minecraft and Splatoon are pretty much the only games that sold on the Wii U in 2016.
 
Jun 2, 2005
7,839
0
1,185
I'm saying that it's very likely that 90% of owners who bought Wii U after May 2015 bought Splatoon. Or in otherwords bought Wii U to play Splatoon.
The existing Wii U owners(bought prior to May 2015) only around 1/3 ended up buying it perhaps the other 2/3 simply weren't interested in the game, perhaps some moved on to a different devices. We don't really know, but Minecraft and Splatoon are pretty much the only games that sold on the Wii U in 2016.
That's a pretty ridiculous assumption and then extrapolating it to happen on the Switch as well is even more ridiculous. We will see.
 
Oct 20, 2014
3,844
1
340
Sofia
That's a pretty ridiculous assumption and then extrapolating it to happen on the Switch as well is even more ridiculous. We will see.
Well year one the biggest game on the Switch is Splatoon 2 so we should expect to see if the Switch with a handheld Splatoon is enough to re-energize the hunger for a new Nintendo machine. For Japan there is a lot riding on Splatoon to be able to sell the device and we will continue to see more and more advertisement as the launch nears.

Mario Kart and Zelda are titles that on the Wii U and 3DS have done a lot better in the West but we haven't had a MK on a handheld in 6 years, while a new Zelda also hasn't really appeared on a handheld in a while.With the current scope is definitely a game that is increasingly looking like it's going to outperform prior Zelda games, simply because launch months those are the two major games coming out on the Switch.
MK is launching towards the end of April so right now it doesn't appear to be the main focus as the main focus in Japan is definitely Zelda and Splatoon 2 with the promise of Super Mario Odyssey for the holiday. Once Zelda launches and Nintendo focuses it's marketing effort towards MK8D we will see a lot more and I think the two player local on the go especially in Japan will be making this title a bit more attractive than Wii U's MK8. You can't really organize 8 people in a small Japanese apartment but now other places open up as gaming areas. All you need is a Switch and instantly two people can join others and form big lobbies.

Arms could still get considerable marketing in Japan and we don't know what type of legs it will have as a new IP, that has local and online. Creating the game design to support two player local with individual JoyCons does show that Nintendo is targeting all demographics with this game.

In the end it's a bunch of titles that might have longer legs but Splatoon will rein over all of them at least during the first two years of the Switch. It's simply the game that is supposed to drive subs especially in Japan - while it still allows kids to form local lobbies if they all own a Switch.
Personally I think in a few years Splatoon 2 will be a top 10 selling game of all time in Japan. While the Switch itself as a device is far more attractive than 3DS and Wii U at launch. I personally think year one lineup is better for Japan than year one Wii U and 3DS lineups combined. The price could have been better but it's still only Y5000 more than 3DS launch price.
 
Apr 21, 2015
17,649
0
0
Why doesn't RE6 also have a "digital" estimate thrown in? RE6 was day one digital too.

RE7 is clearly not going to sell as well as RE6 in the same time period because it shipped dramatically fewer copies.
Because as of RE6's launch Digital ratio was well under 10% on average. The amount of units it moved digitally will be marginal at best. We are talking, optimistically RE6 maybe moved 5% of its units digitally on console at launch.

And I wouldn't be so sure RE7 is going to ship substantially under RE6 in the West (though clearly it will in Japan). We will have to see how legs go but in UK / Germany, two Western countries we have numbers for RE7 is tracking a little under / in line with RE6. Like that's not opinion, that's what its selling. Its also having smaller 2nd week drops than RE6 did.

US is going to be the important factor in that, but we won't really know the answer for that for 2 months, as we are only going to have 1 week of tracking for RE7 in its first NPD compared to RE6's 4 weeks for its launch. We won't know how RE7 is stacking up in comparison to 6 in the US until we get February NPD results.

All in all there is no guarantee RE7 ships what RE6 does, in fact I think it likely won't. But that also isn't a very big deal. It'll be a 5+ milliion units seller.
 
Nov 16, 2007
16,626
0
0
31
PREDICTION LEAGUE YEAR 2017

Predict how much these titles will sell this year (from Dec 26, 2016 to Dec 31, 2017):

[PS4] PlayStation 4 Hardware - 1,527,000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware - 3,196,000
[3DS] Nintendo 3DS Hardware - 1,314,000

[NSW + WIU] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 617,000
[3DS] Monster Hunter XX: Double Cross - 1,606,000
[NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 687,000
[NSW] Splatoon 2 - 1,824,000
[NSW] Super Mario Odyssey - 847,000
[3DS] Dragon Quest XI - 2,604,000
[PS4] Dragon Quest XI - 506,000

Dragon Quest is the tricky one since there's the Switch version to consider as well.
 
Jun 18, 2013
11,412
0
0
30
Poland
It will.

Switch LTD by the end of 2017 will be close to PS4 LTD right now.

DQ matches well with the Nintendo demographic and the Switch will be portable.

Everything points to the Switch being a massive success in Japan.

My question is why do you think DQXI Switch wouldn't outsell the PS4 version?
Wait you're seriously thinking Switch will sell over 4 million in less than a year? lol
 
Jun 2, 2005
7,839
0
1,185
Well year one the biggest game on the Switch is Splatoon 2 so we should expect to see if the Switch with a handheld Splatoon is enough to re-energize the hunger for a new Nintendo machine. For Japan there is a lot riding on Splatoon to be able to sell the device and we will continue to see more and more advertisement as the launch nears.

Mario Kart and Zelda are titles that on the Wii U and 3DS have done a lot better in the West but we haven't had a MK on a handheld in 6 years, while a new Zelda also hasn't really appeared on a handheld in a while.With the current scope is definitely a game that is increasingly looking like it's going to outperform prior Zelda games, simply because launch months those are the two major games coming out on the Switch.
MK is launching towards the end of April so right now it doesn't appear to be the main focus as the main focus in Japan is definitely Zelda and Splatoon 2 with the promise of Super Mario Odyssey for the holiday. Once Zelda launches and Nintendo focuses it's marketing effort towards MK8D we will see a lot more and I think the two player local on the go especially in Japan will be making this title a bit more attractive than Wii U's MK8. You can't really organize 8 people in a small Japanese apartment but now other places open up as gaming areas. All you need is a Switch and instantly two people can join others and form big lobbies.

Arms could still get considerable marketing in Japan and we don't know what type of legs it will have as a new IP, that has local and online. Creating the game design to support two player local with individual JoyCons does show that Nintendo is targeting all demographics with this game.

In the end it's a bunch of titles that might have longer legs but Splatoon will rein over all of them at least during the first two years of the Switch. It's simply the game that is supposed to drive subs especially in Japan - while it still allows kids to form local lobbies if they all own a Switch.
Personally I think in a few years Splatoon 2 will be a top 10 selling game of all time in Japan. While the Switch itself as a device is far more attractive than 3DS and Wii U at launch. I personally think year one lineup is better for Japan than year one Wii U and 3DS lineups combined. The price could have been better but it's still only Y5000 more than 3DS launch price.
I agree with most of what you are saying, I think the Switch is going to be a success and that it has good potential to sell well this year. You are seriously over-inflating software sales potential though. I would take a ban bet that Breath of the Wild doesn't break a million for instance. Shit I would be happy if it did, but it is just a serious long shot.
 

Fdkn

Member
Jul 20, 2011
2,872
0
0
PREDICTION LEAGUE YEAR 2017

Predict how much these titles will sell this year (from Dec 26, 2016 to Dec 31, 2017):

[PS4] PlayStation 4 Hardware - 2.000.002
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware - 1.499.999
[3DS] Nintendo 3DS Hardware - 1.399.999

[NSW + WIU] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 599.999
[3DS] Monster Hunter XX: Double Cross - 2.000.006
[NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 499.999
[NSW] Splatoon 2 - 999.999
[NSW] Super Mario Odyssey - 399.999
[3DS] Dragon Quest XI - 2.499.999
[PS4] Dragon Quest XI - 899.999
 
May 24, 2010
371
0
0
31
PREDICTION LEAGUE YEAR 2017

Predict how much these titles will sell this year (from Dec 26, 2016 to Dec 31, 2017):

[PS4] PlayStation 4 Hardware - 1500000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware - 3000000
[3DS] Nintendo 3DS Hardware - 1500000

[NSW + WIU] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 700000
[3DS] Monster Hunter XX: Double Cross - 1700000
[NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 800000
[NSW] Splatoon 2 - 1500000
[NSW] Super Mario Odyssey - 600000
[3DS] Dragon Quest XI - 2500000
[PS4] Dragon Quest XI - 700000
[NSW] Dragon Quest XI - 800000
 
Jul 29, 2010
4,266
82
655
Dengeki Online Sales: Week 5, 2017 (Jan 30 - Feb 05)

01./01. [PS4] Resident Evil 7: biohazard (Capcom) {2017.01.26} - 50,794 / 275,434
02./06. [3DS] Super Mario Maker for Nintendo 3DS (Nintendo) {2016.12.01} - 12,239 / 967,565
03./05. [3DS] Yo-Kai Watch 3: Sukiyaki (Level 5) {2016.12.15} - 12,122 / 671,325
04./03. [3DS] Poochy & Yoshi's Woolly World (Nintendo) {2017.01.19} - 11,644 / 68,096
05./08. [3DS] Pokemon Sun (Pokemon Co.) {2016.11.18} - 9,250 / 1,635,449
06./09. [3DS] Pokemon Moon (Pokemon Co.) {2016.11.18} - 9,011 / 1,497,648
07./00. [PS4] Naruto Shippuden: Ultimate Ninja Storm 4 - Road to Boruto (Bandai Namco Games) {2017.02.02} - 8,879 / NEW
08./04. [PS4] Gravity Rush 2 (Sony Interactive Entertainment) {2017.01.19} - 7,831 / 94,513
09./07. [PS4] Kingdom Hearts HD II.8 Final Chapter Prologue (Square Enix) {2017.01.12} - 6,088 / 170,273
10./00. [3DS] BoxBoy! Hakobume Box <BoxBoy! \ BoxBoxBoy! \ Sayonara! BoxBoy!> (Nintendo) {2017.02.02} - 6,060 / NEW
11./13. [3DS] Momotaro Dentetsu 2017: Tachiagare Nippon!! (Nintendo) {2016.12.22} - 5,083 / 294,863
12./20. [PS4] Grand Theft Auto V (Take-Two Interactive Japan) {2015.10.08} - 4,600 / 216,232
13./18. [PSV] Minecraft: Playstation Vita Edition (Sony Interactive Entertainment) {2015.03.19} - 4,572 / 1,046,724
14./11. [PSV] Danganronpa V3: Killing Harmony (Spike Chunsoft) {2017.01.12} - 4,465 / 114,660
15./15. [3DS] Miitopia (Nintendo) {2016.12.08} - 4,456 / 183,321
16./10. [PS4] Valkyria Revolution (Sega) {2017.01.19} - 4,235 / 51,145
17./19. [PS4] Final Fantasy XV (Square Enix) {2016.11.29} - 4,100 / 922,027
18./21. [3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf - Welcome amiibo (Nintendo) {2016.11.23} - 4,067 / 117,204
19./12. [PSV] Valkyria Revolution (Sega) {2017.01.19} - 3,200 / 27,896
20./28. [PS4] Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six: Siege (Ubisoft) {2015.12.10} - 2,689 / 163,451
21./26. [WIU] Minecraft: Wii U Edition (Microsoft Game Studios) {2016.06.23} - 2,650 / 276,608
22./29. [PS4] Battlefield 1 (Electronic Arts) {2016.10.21} - 2,583 / 261,246
23./30. [PS4] Minecraft: Playstation 4 Edition (Sony Interactive Entertainment) {2015.12.03} - 2,528 / 175,435
24./34. [PS4] Resident Evil 6 (Capcom) {2016.12.01} - 2,378 / 30,645
25./30. [3DS] Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball Heroes (Konami) {2016.12.15} - 2,039 / 107,315
26./02. [PSV] Uta no Prince-Sama: Repeat Love (Broccoli) {2017.01.26} - 2,025 / 20,492
27./36. [3DS] Mario Kart 7 (Nintendo) {2011.12.01} - 1,822 / 2,604,625
28./33. [PS4] Yakuza 6: The Song of Life (Sega) {2016.12.08} - 1,817 / 349,438
29./24. [PS4] Danganronpa V3: Killing Harmony (Spike Chunsoft) {2017.01.12} - 1,772 / 61,234
30./49. [3DS] Kirby: Planet Robobot (Nintendo) {2016.04.28} - 1,733 / 501,154
30./40. [WIU] Splatoon (Nintendo) {2015.05.28} - 1,611 / 1,502,529
32./38. [3DS] Sumikko Gurashi: Mura o Tsukurundesu (Nippon Columbia) {2016.07.21} - 1,556 / 152,215
33./35. [PS4] Watch Dogs 2 (Ubisoft) {2016.12.01} - 1,522 / 104,969
34./41. [3DS] Mario Party Star Rush (Nintendo) {2016.10.20} - 1,489 / 154,894
35./43. [PS4] Winning Eleven 2017 (Konami) {2016.09.15} - 1,482 / 128,820
36./17. [PSV] Sousei no Onmyouji (Bandai Namco Games) {2017.01.26} - 1,480 / 6,360
37./46. [3DS] Yo-Kai Watch 3: Sushi / Tempura - Busters T-Pack {Yo-Kai Watch 3: Sushi \ Yo-Kai Watch 3: Tempura} (Level 5) {2016.12.15} - 1,478 / 53,097
38./50. [PS4] The Elder Scrolls V&#65306; Skyrim Special Edition (Bethesda Softworks) {2016.11.10} - 1,372 / 63,651
39./00. [PS4] Akiba's Trip 2+A (Acquire) {2017.02.02} - 1,313 / NEW
40./48. [PS4] Resident Evil 5 (Capcom) {2016.12.01} - 1,261 / 17,947
41./42. [PSV] Sword Art Online: Hollow Realization (Bandai Namco Games) {2016.10.27} - 1,233 / 143,596
42./39. [3DS] Monster Hunter Stories (Capcom) {2016.10.08} - 1,211 / 321,636
43./52. [WIU] Super Mario Maker (Nintendo) {2015.09.10} - 1,156 / 995,694
44./74. [PS4] The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition (Spike Chunsoft) {2016.09.01} - 1,133 / 54,291
45./54. [PS4] Dragonball Xenoverse 2 (Bandai Namco Games) {2016.11.02} - 1,122 / 115,444
46./55. [PS4] Resident Evil 4 (Capcom) {2016.12.01} - 1,111 / 16,552
47./47. [PS4] The Last Guardian (Sony Interactive Entertainment) {2016.12.06} - 1,022 / 117,359
48./62. [WIU] Mario Kart 8 (Nintendo) {2014.05.29} - 1,006 / 1,250,813
49./32. [3DS] Monster Hunter Generations (Capcom) {2015.11.28} - 994 / 2,882,723
50./71. [3DS] Taiko no Tatsujin: Don Don! Mystery Adventure (Bandai Namco Games) {2016.06.16} - 978 / 128,061

SOFTWARE
Code:
--------------------------------------------------------
| Model | This Week | Week(%)  | FY 2016     | FY(%)   |
--------------------------------------------------------
| PS4   | 142,506   | 44.2%    | 7,709,774   | 28.1%   |
| 3DS   | 123,620   | 38.4%    | 13,628,956  | 49.6%   |
| Vita  | 39,791    | 12.4%    | 3,530,802   | 12.9%   |
| Wii U | 11,224    | 3.5%     | 1,458,472   | 5.3%    |
| PS3   | 4,754     | 1.5%     | 1,095,312   | 4.0%    |
| X One | 267       | 0.1%     | 37,479      | 0.1%    |
--------------------------------------------------------
| Total | 322,162   | 100.0%   | 27,460,795  | 100.0%  |
--------------------------------------------------------
HARDWARE
Code:
--------------------------------------------------------
| Model | This Week | Week(%)  | FY 2016     | FY(%)   |
--------------------------------------------------------
| PS4   | 36,314    | 49.4%    | 1,711,468   | 39.1%   |
| 3DS   | 19,280    | 26.2%    | 1,448,434   | 33.1%   |
| Vita  | 10,137    | 13.8%    | 621,176     | 14.2%   |
| 2DS   | 6,323     | 8.6%     | 358,780     | 8.2%    |
| Wii U | 850       | 1.2%     | 190,681     | 4.4%    |
| PS3   | 470       | 0.6%     | 36,052      | 0.8%    |
| X One | 200       | 0.3%     | 7,251       | 0.2%    |
--------------------------------------------------------
| Total | 73,546    | 100.0%   | 4,374,284   | 100.0%  |
--------------------------------------------------------
Dengeki Online Sales: Week 4, 2017 (Jan 23 - Jan 29)

Dengeki Sales Archive
2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014
 
Mar 22, 2007
23,613
2
1,000
I fully expect the price difference to be offset by the flexibility of the Switch and the launch year lineup. I don't think the launch months(March/April) are going to be any less than the corresponding launch months for the 3DS. I expect the Switch to surpass 1 million units with the MK8D launch. After MK8D launch sales will slow down for May/June but I fully expect for Splatoon 2 to be a summer vacation title and Minecraft to also be released around the Splatoon 2 launch. The first month of Splatoon coinciding with summer vacation and another surge in Switch sales which will likely allow the Switch to clear 2 million units by the end of the summer vacation. With sales after summer being stronger than May/June due to Splatoon2/Minecraft. Than we have the holiday titles and unannounced games - Super Mario Odyssey and DQ which will be enough to push Switch well over a million in December and we would likely get a decent boost for the system when each of these games launches.
I see the 4 million figure as a minimum and it could be well above that figure if we end up seeing bundles or price cuts - especially around either the summer vacation or December.

People are giving far too much credit to the 3DS as a device and are underplaying the advantages Switch has compared to 3DS at launch. If Switch fails to outsell WiiU's sales by the end of 2017 by a considerable amount(at the very least 500k) it would be a failure in my eyes.
Sure, the Switch does have its advantages over the 3DS, but still, 85k-90k in average for the rest of the year is a lot. The 3DS did like 55k a week in average (including launch numbers) until the pricedrop. We have no idea how the japanese consumers in general will see the value proposition of the Switch.


Personally I think in a few years Splatoon 2 will be a top 10 selling game of all time in Japan. While the Switch itself as a device is far more attractive than 3DS and Wii U at launch. I personally think year one lineup is better for Japan than year one Wii U and 3DS lineups combined. The price could have been better but it's still only Y5000 more than 3DS launch price.
Doesnt it need to sell about 5 million copies to achieve that goal?
 

Eolz

Member
Jun 1, 2014
10,184
1
405
UK, sometimes France
To be honest, I'm not sure we can accurately predict how much the Switch will sell in one year yet. Previous predictions for all platforms here showed us that lol.
Will be an interesting one to follow as usual!
 
Jul 29, 2010
4,266
82
655
So with Dengeki #s...

Kirby hit 500K. Those legs are great :)
30./49. [3DS] Kirby: Planet Robobot (Nintendo) {2016.04.28} - 1,733 / 501,154

MK8 hit 1.25M
48./62. [WIU] Mario Kart 8 (Nintendo) {2014.05.29} - 1,006 / 1,250,813

28./33. [PS4] Yakuza 6: The Song of Life (Sega) {2016.12.08} - 1,817 / 349,438 - Yakuza is (finally) really close to 350K retail. Should pass that next week.

Valkyria on PS4 hit a measly 50K... only 2/3rds of the XB1 Japanese LTD =P
16./10. [PS4] Valkyria Revolution (Sega) {2017.01.19} - 4,235 / 51,145

Seems like these two titles are trucking along quietly behind the scenes. I know MHStories had disappointing sales, but is it selling close to full price? Or at some severe discount?

41./42. [PSV] Sword Art Online: Hollow Realization (Bandai Namco Games) {2016.10.27} - 1,233 / 143,596
42./39. [3DS] Monster Hunter Stories (Capcom) {2016.10.08} - 1,211 / 321,636
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Dec 17, 2008
11,738
0
0
To be honest, I'm not sure we can accurately predict how much the Switch will sell in one year yet. Previous predictions for all platforms here showed us that lol.
Will be an interesting one to follow as usual!
Previous platforms have showed that things are very predictable.
 
Jul 5, 2011
11,408
0
585
PREDICTION LEAGUE YEAR 2017

Predict how much these titles will sell this year (from Dec 26, 2016 to Dec 31, 2017):

[PS4] PlayStation 4 Hardware - 1.200.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware - 1.600.000
[3DS] Nintendo 3DS Hardware - 1.400.000

[NSW + WIU] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 700.000
[3DS] Monster Hunter XX: Double Cross - 1.400.000
[NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 400.000
[NSW] Splatoon 2 - 600.000
[NSW] Super Mario Odyssey - 300.000
[3DS] Dragon Quest XI - 2.500.000
[PS4] Dragon Quest XI - 600.000
 

Eolz

Member
Jun 1, 2014
10,184
1
405
UK, sometimes France
Previous platforms have showed that things are very predictable.
I disagree. You can see/predict some trends, when it will get sales boosts, and in which range the LTD will be, but the first year is kinda hard. On top of that, the Switch is not really your usual platform, and isn't releasing in the usual timeframe.
Vita had a weird life in Japan, PS4's future is still doubtful there, WiiU wasn't expected to be even worse than predicted, etc.
I agree with you on the software side though.
 
Mar 13, 2013
12,412
3
0
Sure, the Switch does have its advantages over the 3DS, but still, 85k-90k in average for the rest of the year is a lot. The 3DS did like 55k a week in average (including launch numbers) until the pricedrop. We have no idea how the japanese consumers in general will see the value proposition of the Switch.



Doesnt it need to sell about 5 million copies to achieve that goal?
I don't think Switch will do comparable to 3DS but it's important to keep in mind that there was a massive natural disaster during that time which meant people were spending a lot less on luxuries.
 
Aug 24, 2011
6,928
0
500
Finland
PREDICTION LEAGUE YEAR 2017

Predict how much these titles will sell this year (from Dec 26, 2016 to Dec 31, 2017):

[PS4] PlayStation 4 Hardware - 1.600.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware - 3.200,000
[3DS] Nintendo 3DS Hardware - 1.100.000

[NSW + WIU] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 600.000
[3DS] Monster Hunter XX: Double Cross - 1.900.000
[NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 1.000.000
[NSW] Splatoon 2 - 1.700.000
[NSW] Super Mario Odyssey - 750.000
[3DS] Dragon Quest XI - 3.000.000
[PS4] Dragon Quest XI - 1.000.000

My Switch prediction is based on that Nintendo will do panic price cut again during fall (like with 3DS).
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Dec 17, 2008
11,738
0
0
After launch, 3DS received its first important title in June, and that was the port of Ocarina of Time, and the first big title in November.

The system suffered from major software droughts for both small and big titles, until holidays.
 
Jul 10, 2013
4,454
0
0
United States
PREDICTION LEAGUE YEAR 2017

Predict how much these titles will sell this year (from Dec 26, 2016 to Dec 31, 2017):

[PS4] PlayStation 4 Hardware - 1.625.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware - 3.120.000
[3DS] Nintendo 3DS Hardware - 1.360.000

[NSW + WIU] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 720.000
[3DS] Monster Hunter XX: Double Cross - 1.540.000
[NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 995.000
[NSW] Splatoon 2 - 1.470.000
[NSW] Super Mario Odyssey - 620.000
[3DS] Dragon Quest XI - 2.240.000
[PS4] Dragon Quest XI - 806.000
 
Mar 22, 2007
23,613
2
1,000
I don't think Switch will do comparable to 3DS but it's important to keep in mind that there was a massive natural disaster during that time which meant people were spending a lot less on luxuries.
I'm not sure if this had an huge impact on gaming hardware sales. Looking at the PSP and PS3 sales in that period, nothing look out of the ordinary. The PSP even had weeks with bigger increases in hardware sales closely after the earthquake.
 
Jun 23, 2015
4,035
0
0
Portugal
PREDICTION LEAGUE YEAR 2017

Predict how much these titles will sell this year (from Dec 26, 2016 to Dec 31, 2017):

[PS4] PlayStation 4 Hardware - 1.825.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware - 3.600.000
[3DS] Nintendo 3DS Hardware - 1.500.000

[NSW + WIU] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 850.000
[3DS] Monster Hunter XX: Double Cross - 1.800.000
[NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 1.000.000
[NSW] Splatoon 2 - 2.120.000
[NSW] Super Mario Odyssey - 1.430.000
[3DS] Dragon Quest XI - 3.250.000
[PS4] Dragon Quest XI - 750.000
 
J

Jpop

Unconfirmed Member
I'm not sure if this had an huge impact on gaming hardware sales. Looking at the PSP and PS3 sales in that period, nothing look out of the ordinary. The PSP even had weeks with bigger increases in hardware sales closely after the earthquake.
The 3DS had a very weak launch in Japan when it came to software.

The Switch on the other hand is going to have a ton of appealing software for the Japanese market.

Splatoon in itself will be massive with local multiplayer, in much the same way Monster Hunter blew up when it became portable.
 
Mar 9, 2012
3,567
0
445
Spain
First Day Sell-through {2017.02.09}

[3DS] Dragon Quest Monsters: Joker 3 - Professional <RPG> (Square Enix) (¥5.250) - 40%

[PS4] Nioh <ACT> (Koei Tecmo) (¥7.800) - 60% (pre-orders were almost non-existent, but now the game is selling better than expected)

[PS4] Yonmegami Online: Cyber Dimension Neptune # <RPG> (Compile Heart) (¥7.200) - 80%
 
Jul 29, 2010
4,266
82
655
First Day Sell-through {2017.02.09}

[3DS] Dragon Quest Monsters: Joker 3 - Professional <RPG> (Square Enix) (¥5.250) - 40%

[PS4] Nioh <ACT> (Koei Tecmo) (¥7.800) - 60% (pre-orders were almost non-existent, but now the game is selling better than expected)

[PS4] Yonmegami Online: Cyber Dimension Neptune # <RPG> (Compile Heart) (¥7.200) - 80%
Good to hear about Nioh. Hopefully it sells well.
 
Jan 27, 2013
7,639
0
0
2 million at launch. 2 million during the holidays. Is it really that much? We're talking worldwide here right?

Edit: Oh wait. Japan only? Hahahahahahahahahahaaha. Maybe by the end of 2018.
Lol. I also believe that Switch will do 4 million here in Y1 Japan lol.^^ i wonder if i will eat crow there.^^

Worldwide 4 million day one is going insane level of disaster lol.O_O Zelda alone should be able to help it reach that number WW.^^
 
Jul 29, 2010
4,266
82
655
I've got to ask though, if Nintendo really isn't prepping a 3DS successor any time soon, and people here do expect the 3DS to eventually get killed off in a year or so, shouldn't the Switch at least get some of those users in order to keep the market alive at all? Otherwise, there's just the PS4 in its slightly better than PS3-like state and nothing else? I guess we'll see where Pokemon & Monster Hunter release in the future, and that's essentially the "successor" to the 3DS in the market.
 
Mar 22, 2013
10,743
1
405
New York City
First Day Sell-through {2017.02.09}

[3DS] Dragon Quest Monsters: Joker 3 - Professional <RPG> (Square Enix) (¥5.250) - 40%

[PS4] Nioh <ACT> (Koei Tecmo) (¥7.800) - 60% (pre-orders were almost non-existent, but now the game is selling better than expected)

[PS4] Yonmegami Online: Cyber Dimension Neptune # <RPG> (Compile Heart) (¥7.200) - 80%
Promising start for Team Ninja.
 
Jan 27, 2011
7,631
14
640
Nevada, USA
Anybody expecting RE7 to have RE6 sales after what RE6 did to the franchise is being too optimistic... a big drop in sales was expected after RE6 reception.

Said that RE7 did a bit lower than I expected... I expected 50k more at launch and over 300k right now.
Well the famitsu numbers have it much closer to 300,000, but yeah - wish it would have done a little better.
 
Jun 7, 2004
114,759
1
0
37
I've got to ask though, if Nintendo really isn't prepping a 3DS successor any time soon, and people here do expect the 3DS to eventually get killed off in a year or so, shouldn't the Switch at least get some of those users in order to keep the market alive at all? Otherwise, there's just the PS4 in its slightly better than PS3-like state and nothing else? I guess we'll see whether Pokemon & Monster Hunter release in the future, and that's essentially the "successor" to the 3DS in the market.
I've said it over and over and over. There won't be a 3DS "successor" there will only be variants of the Switch. Nintendo is not pushing anything now and they are evasive to investors and the press because they want to control the narrative. But by October this year, they will finally start to wind the 3DS down, and we will see more Switch handheld-centric software announcements, along with a handheld friendly Switch SKU by early 2018. I strongly believe this.
 
Jun 9, 2012
26,506
0
0
PREDICTION LEAGUE YEAR 2017

Predict how much these titles will sell this year (from Dec 26, 2016 to Dec 31, 2017):

[PS4] PlayStation 4 Hardware - 1300k
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware - 2850k
[3DS] Nintendo 3DS Hardware - 900k

[NSW + WIU] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 500k
[3DS] Monster Hunter XX: Double Cross - 1200k
[NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 500k
[NSW] Splatoon 2 - 700k
[NSW] Super Mario Odyssey - 375k
[3DS] Dragon Quest XI - 2250k
[PS4] Dragon Quest XI - 800k

Honestlty expecting the switch launch to be a disaster but ultimately be saved by Splatoon and have a good end of the year with Mario, Dragon Quest, and Splatoon still selling. I would say a lot more if we knew Pokemon was coing
 
May 10, 2015
3,585
1
0
In order to get to 4m by the end of the year (meaning 43 weeks of sales) the Nintendo Switch would need to become the fastest selling console in Japan since the Game Boy Advance.

For comparison, LTD after 43 weeks:

GBA: 4.85m
3DS: 3.60m
WII: 3.54m
NDS: 3.26m
PS2: 3.05m
PS1: 1.21m

With that we know about the system now I wouldn't make the assertion of it even selling 3 million, the best thing to compare it to, as far as release timing and price goes is the PS2.
 
Jan 27, 2013
7,639
0
0
&#332;kami;230052437 said:
In order to get to 4m by the end of the year (meaning 43 weeks of sales) the Nintendo Switch would need to become the fastest selling console in Japan since the Game Boy Advance.

For comparison, LTD after 43 weeks:

GBA: 4.85m
3DS: 3.60m
WII: 3.54m
NDS: 3.26m
PS2: 3.05m
PS1: 1.21m

With that we know about the system now I wouldn't make the assertion of it even selling 3 million, the best thing to compare it to, as far as release timing and price goes is the PS2.
Hmm thats interesting. Do you had any info on what GBA was released with? Maybe i am being delusional but, i had the gut feeling that it will reach 4 mil lol. Or maybe around 3.5 mil for this year.O_O
 
Apr 16, 2015
92
0
210
What games are Japanese players using their PS4 for ????
FWIW, here are the Fiscal year software sales as of the 5th week of the calendar year according to Dengeki. (44th week in the fiscal year)

FY 2014 refers to the period from April 2014 through March 2015
PS4 1.564.727 software sales

FY 2015 refers to the period from April 2015 through March 2016
PS4 4.238.202 software sales

FY 2016 refers to the period from April 2016 through March 2017
PS4 7,709,774 software sales.
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Dec 17, 2008
11,738
0
0
21./24. [PS4] Battlefield 1 <ACT> (Electronic Arts) {2016.10.21} (¥7.800)
22./14. [PSV] Valkyria Revolution <RPG> (Sega) {2017.01.19} (¥6.990)
23./29. [3DS] Mario Kart 7 <RCE> (Nintendo) {2011.12.01} (¥4.571)
24./27. [PS4] Resident Evil 6 <ADV> (Capcom) {2016.12.01} (¥2.800)
25./28. [PS4] Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six: Siege <ACT> (Ubisoft) {2015.12.10} (¥8.400)
26./38. [3DS] Kirby: Planet Robobot <ACT> (Nintendo) {2016.04.28} (¥4.700)
27./30. [PS4] Watch Dogs 2 <ADV> (Ubisoft) {2016.12.01} (¥8.400)
28./34. [PS4] The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim - Special Edition <RPG> (Bethesda Softworks) {2016.11.10} (¥5.980)
29./33. [3DS] Yo-Kai Watch 3: Sushi / Tempura <RPG> (Level 5) {2016.07.16} (¥4.800)
30./35. [3DS] Sumikko Gurashi: Mura o Tsukurundesu <ETC> (Nippon Columbia) {2016.07.21} (¥4.800)
31./41. [PS4] FIFA 17 # <SPT> (Electronic Arts) {2016.09.29} (¥7.800)
32./45. [PS4] The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition <The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt \ The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Hearts of Stone \ The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Blood and Wine> <RPG> (Spike Chunsoft) {2016.09.01} (¥6.480)
33./39. [3DS] Mario Party: Star Rush <ETC> (Nintendo) {2016.10.20} (¥4.700)
34./32. [PS4] Yakuza 6: The Song of Life # <ADV> (Sega) {2016.12.08} (¥8.190)
35./36. [3DS] New Super Mario Bros. 2 # <ACT> (Nintendo) {2012.07.28} (¥4.571)
36./42. [PS4] Minecraft: PlayStation 4 Edition <ADV> (Sony Computer Entertainment) {2015.12.03} (¥2.400)
37./37. [WIU] Splatoon # <ACT> (Nintendo) {2015.05.28} (¥5.700)
38./40. [3DS] Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball Heroes <SLG> (Konami) {2016.12.15} (¥4.500)
39./20. [PSV] New Game! The Challenge Stage! # <ADV> (5pb.) {2017.01.26} (¥7.300)
40./00. [PS4] Akiba's Trip 2+A <ADV> (Acquire) {2017.02.02} (¥3.980)
41./46. [3DS] Super Smash Bros. for Nintendo 3DS <FTG> (Nintendo) {2014.09.13} (¥5.200)
42./47. [PS4] Persona 5 # <RPG> (Atlus) {2016.09.15} (¥8.800)
43./00. [3DS] Puzzle & Dragons X: God Chapter / Dragon Chapter <RPG> (GungHo Online Entertainment) {2016.07.28} (¥4.800)
44./00. [PSV] Sword Art Online: Hollow Realization # <RPG> (Bandai Namco Games) {2016.10.27} (¥6.100)
45./15. [PSV] Sousei no Onmyouji <ADV> (Bandai Namco Games) {2017.01.26} (¥5.700)
46./22. [PS4] Ao no Kanata no Four Rhythm: HD Edition # <ADV> (Sprite) {2017.01.26} (¥7.800)
47./00. [3DS] Monster Hunter Stories # <RPG> (Capcom) {2016.10.08} (¥5.800)
48./00. [WIU] Mario Kart 8 # <RCE> (Nintendo) {2014.05.29} (¥5.700)
49./43. [3DS] Yo-Kai Watch 3: Sushi / Tempura - Busters T-Pack {Yo-Kai Watch 3: Sushi \ Yo-Kai Watch 3: Tempura} <RPG> (Level 5) {2016.12.15} (¥6.400)
50./00. [3DS] Tomodachi Life [Nintendo Selects] <ETC> (Nintendo) {2016.03.17} (¥2.700)

Top 50

3DS - 20
PS4 - 20
PSV - 7
WIU - 3

SOFTWARE
Code:
+-------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+
|System |  This Week |  Last Week |  Last Year |     YTD    |  Last YTD  |
+-------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+
|  ALL  |    349.000 |    541.000 |    460.000 |  2.847.000 |  3.011.000 |
+-------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Dec 17, 2008
11,738
0
0
&#332;kami;230052437 said:
In order to get to 4m by the end of the year (meaning 43 weeks of sales) the Nintendo Switch would need to become the fastest selling console in Japan since the Game Boy Advance.

For comparison, LTD after 43 weeks:

GBA: 4.85m
3DS: 3.60m
WII: 3.54m
NDS: 3.26m
PS2: 3.05m
PS1: 1.21m

With that we know about the system now I wouldn't make the assertion of it even selling 3 million, the best thing to compare it to, as far as release timing and price goes is the PS2.
3DS loses almost the entire holiday season because it launched in February. It was at 4,5m 3 weeks later.
 
Jun 7, 2004
114,759
1
0
37
PREDICTION LEAGUE YEAR 2017

Predict how much these titles will sell this year (from Dec 26, 2016 to Dec 31, 2017):

[3DS] Dragon Quest XI - 0k
[PS4] Dragon Quest XI - 0k
 
Aug 7, 2011
2,898
0
0
PREDICTION LEAGUE YEAR 2017

Predict how much these titles will sell this year (from Dec 26, 2016 to Dec 31, 2017):

[PS4] PlayStation 4 Hardware - 1,400,000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware - 1,200,000
[3DS] Nintendo 3DS Hardware - 1,400,000

[NSW + WIU] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 500,000
[3DS] Monster Hunter XX: Double Cross - 2,100,000
[NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 625,000
[NSW] Splatoon 2 - 750,000
[NSW] Super Mario Odyssey - 800,000
[3DS] Dragon Quest XI - 3,000,000
[PS4] Dragon Quest XI - 700,000