Media Create Sales: Week 50, 2013 (Dec 09 - Dec 15)

Apophis2036

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If Mario 3D World sells 100k this week (taking it's lifetime sales to almost 350k in just over a month) I wonder if next time a Mario game is released people will be less quick to call it a 'bomb'. By the end of Jan I could see it having sold 500 000 copies which would be incredible considering the size of the WiiU's Japanese install base.

If WiiU and 3D World sell 100k a piece this week it would end a very good month for Nintendo.

On the subject of WiiU vs PS3 lifetime sales, I doubt it will keep up these 70k sales once we get to mid Jan and the next big name game that could provide a sizeable bump would be Mario Kart 8 in early March (if Iwata wants the hardware bump to show up in the yearly financial results). PS3 recovered because it was eventually rebranded, price cut with a new smaller model and third parties started keeping it supplied with software throughout the entire year. Any console that relies almost entirely on first party output would struggle which is one of the reasons Vita is struggling.
 

metalslimer

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If Mario 3D World sells 100k this week (taking it's lifetime sales to almost 350k in just over a month) I wonder if next time a Mario game is released people will be less quick to call it a 'bomb'. By the end of Jan I could see it having sold 500 000 copies which would be incredible considering the size of the WiiU's Japanese install base.

If WiiU and 3D World sell 100k a piece this week it would end a very good month for Nintendo.

On the subject of WiiU vs PS3 lifetime sales, I doubt it will keep up these 70k sales once we get to mid Jan and the next big name game that could provide a sizeable bump would be Mario Kart 8 in early March (if Iwata wants the hardware bump to show up in the yearly financial results). PS3 recovered because it was eventually rebranded, price cut with a new smaller model and third parties started keeping it supplied with software throughout the entire year. Any console that relies almost entirely on first party output would struggle which is one of the reasons Vita is struggling.
3D World will be the worst selling 3D Mario likely by a decent margin. It's far away from the catastrophic bomb we thought it was based on 1st week sales, but these aren't good. Oh and NSMBU did incredibly well last holiday for the install base and then the system dropped off a cliff the second the holidays were over. The next big boost in sales will probably be in April.
 

MasterSheen

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If 3D World sells 100k next week it would still be tracking below SMS second week and about 200k aligned. I don't think it will have much legs after the holidays either so yeah, still a bomb.
 

Apophis2036

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3D World will be the worst selling 3D Mario likely by a decent margin. It's far away from the catastrophic bomb we thought it was based on 1st week sales, but these aren't good. Oh and NSMBU did incredibly well last holiday for the install base and then the system dropped off a cliff the second the holidays were over. The next big boost in sales will probably be in April.
But shouldn't software sales be regarded in relation to the size of the hardware install base it's on ?. I can't believe people don't find a game potentially selling 350 000 copies in less than 5 weeks on an install base of just 1.3 million to be impressive. On top of that Mario games have incredible sales legs, I wouldn't be surprised if it was on 500 000 sales by the end of Jan.

If 3D World sells 100k next week it would still be tracking below SMS second week and about 200k aligned. I don't think it will have much legs after the holidays either so yeah, still a bomb.
Do you know the size of the Gamecube's install base in Japan five weeks after Sunshines release ?.
 

hongcha

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Any console that relies almost entirely on first party output would struggle which is one of the reasons Vita is struggling.
That's not why Vita is struggling. 3rd party games (of which there are many) are keeping the console afloat, not 1st party, of which there are few, many of which sell garbage numbers (see Tearaway, LBP, etc). The best-selling Vita games (P4G, GE2, Toukiden, Project Miku) are 3rd party.
 

metalslimer

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But shouldn't software sales be regarded in relation to the size of the hardware install base it's on ?. I can't believe people don't find a game potentially selling 350 000 copies in less than 5 weeks on an install base of just 1.3 million to be impressive. On top of that Mario games have incredible sales legs, I wouldn't be surprised if it was on 500 000 sales by the end of Jan.
No they shouldn't. If FF15 came out on Wii U tomorrow and sold 400k it would still be a huge bomb. Why should I find one of the only big games coming out on the Wii U selling to large portion of that extremely small base impressive? You can blame the console for the underperformance, but it doesn't change that it underperformed and that certainly doesn't make Nintendo back any more money
 

Apophis2036

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No they shouldn't. If FF15 came out on Wii U tomorrow and sold 400k it would still be a huge bomb. Why should I find one of the only big games coming out on the Wii U selling to large portion of that extremely small base impressive? You can blame the console for the underperformance, but it doesn't change that it underperformed and that certainly doesn't make Nintendo back any more money
So if FF15 came out tomorrow in Japan for WiiU and sold 400k in one week, on an install base on 1.3 million it would be a 'huge bomb' ?... that's an attach rate of almost a third.
 

ZSaberLink

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Jul 29, 2010
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I guess here's a question. What exactly did Sony do to keep the third party support rolling despite the PS3's poor sales? Clearly Nintendo has had a problem with that for a while (since the N64 days at least I'd say), but in all honesty it seems like the Wii U at least has a much better architecture than the PS3 did. Was it because third parties just had that much faith in Sony? Or was Sony willing to throw a bunch of money or something towards companies to keep making games for the platform?
 

Dwindle

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Aug 22, 2013
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I guess here's a question. What exactly did Sony do to keep the third party support rolling despite the PS3's poor sales? Clearly Nintendo has had a problem with that for a while (since the N64 days at least I'd say), but in all honesty it seems like the Wii U at least has a much better architecture than the PS3 did. Was it because third parties just had that much faith in Sony? Or was Sony willing to throw a bunch of money or something towards companies to keep making games for the platform?
Pay devs and cook up hype. But mostly paying devs. Not too different from what they're already doing.
 

metalslimer

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So if FF15 came out tomorrow in Japan for WiiU and sold 400k in one week, on an install base on 1.3 million it would be a 'huge bomb' ?... that's an attach rate of almost a third.
If Wii U failed to pick up significantly and the userbase limited how much it would sell in the end? Yes it would be a huge bomb. So unless 3D World is able to push enough Wii Us into enough homes to give it a better chance of selling better, a game doesn't stop being an underperformer because the system it's on is selling like shit.

Do you think Nintendo went into this holiday thinking "Well 3D World will be the worst selling 3D Mario, but since Wii U is our worst selling system it's just fine"?
 

Otakumegane

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Jul 27, 2013
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I guess here's a question. What exactly did Sony do to keep the third party support rolling despite the PS3's poor sales? Clearly Nintendo has had a problem with that for a while (since the N64 days at least I'd say), but in all honesty it seems like the Wii U at least has a much better architecture than the PS3 did. Was it because third parties just had that much faith in Sony? Or was Sony willing to throw a bunch of money or something towards companies to keep making games for the platform?
3rd parties at that point were way too invested in the PS3. They couldn't make the switch or they'd lose out on a ton of $$.
 

metalslimer

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Pay devs and cook up hype. But mostly paying devs. Not too different from what they're already doing.
Pretty sure developers didn't need much of an incentive to put their games on the PS2 successor. And by the time it was obvious the PS3 was going to massively underperform they had already invested into it. It certainly would have been interesting if Japan had gone with Nintendo.
 

Steel

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Jun 20, 2013
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I guess here's a question. What exactly did Sony do to keep the third party support rolling despite the PS3's poor sales? Clearly Nintendo has had a problem with that for a while (since the N64 days at least I'd say), but in all honesty it seems like the Wii U at least has a much better architecture than the PS3 did. Was it because third parties just had that much faith in Sony? Or was Sony willing to throw a bunch of money or something towards companies to keep making games for the platform?
The Wii U and PS3 are opposite problems. The Wii U is easier to develop for, sure, but powerwise it's so far down the totem pole from the PS4 and Xbox one that it's not going to be worth looking into going forward for 3rd parties. If they tried to put multiplats on the Wii U that would be on XB1 and PS4 but not previous gen consoles, then the Wii U would drag the game down severely.

On the other hand, the PS3 was powerful enough that it technically kept up with the 360, it was just a bitch to program for. Developers did not need to compromise their overall game to put their games on PS3, they just had to work harder at it. Faith from PS2 gen was also a factor.
 

Dwindle

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Aug 22, 2013
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The Wii U and PS3 are opposite problems. The Wii U is easier to develop for, sure, but powerwise it's so far down the totem pole from the PS4 and Xbox one that it's not going to be worth looking into going forward for 3rd parties. If they tried to put multiplats on the Wii U that would be on XB1 and PS4 but not previous gen consoles, then the Wii U would drag the game down severely.

On the other hand, the PS3 was powerful enough that it technically kept up with the 360, it was just a bitch to program for. Developers did not need to compromise their overall game to put their games on PS3, they just had to work harder at it. Faith from PS2 gen was also a factor.
I hope you realize most mid-range Japanese devs don't care about power.
 

Starphoenix

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Jun 5, 2011
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From what I understand it isn't the power that is concerning developers as much as it is the install base. The reason there isn't a new Madden on Wii U is because there simply aren't enough people to warrant spending money on a port and maintaining servers for a base of maybe a couple thousand, on a good day.
 

Steel

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I hope you realize most mid-range Japanese devs don't care about power.
I hope you realize I wasn't specifically talking about japanese devs, and he did not specifically cite japanese devs. Heck Japanese devs are pretty much the only third party that the Wii U has(sega, capcom, square). And the midrange guys you're talking about stick to the 3ds more than the vita more than the Wii U.
 

BishopLamont

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Apr 22, 2007
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If the Wii was even just a tiny bit more competitive on the power front, Nintendo would be in a much, much better position with third party support, real shame that Nintendo had to cheap out so much when it came to power last gen, same thing with the DS, it would have even chewed up the PSP market if its power was a bit more decent, again, another wasted opportunity to get developers, especially western developers in their good books.

Take a look at COD3, which performed better on the Wii than the PS3 but due to its power weakness, the Wii didn't receive COD4 in a timely manner, that changed everything. Even just multiplatform releases with PS3/360 releases would have done so much for the Wii to Wii U transition. Third parties never bothered because their fanbases are too heavily entrenched in the PS/XBOX ecosystem.
 

Psycho_Mantis

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Jul 28, 2012
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When you don't have consoles to sell you make low numbers.
That would make more sense. Still the lineup was poor so it looks like people were buying either for its DVD capabilities or for its crazy lineup next year.

If 3D World sells 100k next week it would still be tracking below SMS second week and about 200k aligned. I don't think it will have much legs after the holidays either so yeah, still a bomb.
100k would put it at 340k right? At least it will reach 500k.
 

Aquamarine

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May 24, 2012
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I'll guess 90k for Wii U.

I have friends who are English teachers, and they say the kids have Wii U fevers.
I'm also predicting some number above last week's 74K for Wii U.

The real test will come in January when the holidays are over.
 

Dwindle

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Aug 22, 2013
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No they shouldn't. If FF15 came out on Wii U tomorrow and sold 400k it would still be a huge bomb. Why should I find one of the only big games coming out on the Wii U selling to large portion of that extremely small base impressive? You can blame the console for the underperformance, but it doesn't change that it underperformed and that certainly doesn't make Nintendo back any more money
Every 3D Mario platformer has legs, but Super Mario 3D World won't? Right...
 

Roboleon

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Jan 17, 2013
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In the spirit of the holidays I'm going to stick my neck out and guess 100k shiny new Wii Us sold for this week

And merry christmas, sales-age nuts!
 

urfe

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Dec 30, 2011
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I'm also predicting some number above last week's 74K for Wii U.

The real test will come in January when the Holidays are over.
I think the word of mouth this Christmas will make sales higher than last year.

However, sadly I don't think think that'll mean it'll do incredibly well.
 

metalslimer

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Jun 9, 2012
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Every 3D Mario platformer has legs, but Super Mario 3D World won't? Right...
Unless it shows some amazing legs post holidays not typical of 3D Marios it will still underperform. Of course, Nintendo will probably throw it in a bundle and improve its sales numbers.

I would love to be wrong though
 

Apophis2036

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Nov 20, 2011
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Do you think Nintendo went into this holiday thinking "Well 3D World will be the worst selling 3D Mario, but since Wii U is our worst selling system it's just fine"?
No but I'm sure they were realistic with their own estimates considering the console has a 1.3 million install base in Japan.
 

Pie and Beans

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Merry Christmas to you, Media Create Thread. I am your best gift of the day.
 

DrWong

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Nov 17, 2011
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If we apply the % increase from last week Mario 3D will be at 90K and Wii U ›100K, but I'm not sure it's the usual % going from last week to this one.
 

KingSnake

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Jan 9, 2013
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120k for Wii U? That's better than any estimations. Great! I wonder how much is SM3DW? Merry Christmas everyone!
 

spock

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Not really a miracle, signs where kind of showing the last month or 2. To many folks just want to see the wiiu tank, plus when contrasted with PS4 and X1 launches the numbers sucked, which they should in the face of competing consoles just launching. Things are going to be much more telling/interesting worldwide around march/april.