Media Create Sales: Week 50, 2015 (Dec 07 - Dec 13)

Feb 9, 2012
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0
475
devilgunman.tumblr.com
Do people actually still think that?

I think it's been pretty obvious since Splatoon's release that the PS4 isn't passing the Wii U in Japan until sometime in 2017.
Did you look at YTD numbers? PS4 is almost doubling WiiU numbers. With a lot more major tiles coming to PS4 next year, PS4 could pass WiiU as early as the end of summer 2016.
 
Yeah, Pokémon finally got a serious competitor and it's quite astonishing to see YW leading sw sales for two years in a row - I still think YW is going to deflate next year, but until now L5 has been working well in keeping brand awareness high and YW might stabilize around reasonable levels (e.g. YW3 doing something like 2-2.5m).
It's certainly possible.

I know the West isn't always a great comparison, but when Battlefield 3 came out, we actually still saw CoD posting record numbers, but they both went down a bit over time due to saturation and people picking preferences.
 
Jul 9, 2012
2,539
0
425
Japan
twitter.com
Bolded the games that won't do anything to the hardware. Italics for games that will move minimal amount of hardware.

That leaves Yakuza 6, Persona 5, Final Fantasy XV, & Dragon Quest XI as the games that will move great hardware.

I think the PS4 will easily pass Wii U next year, but let's not overestimate games like The Last Guardian & Street Fighter, & Dark Souls 3 already has a majority of its fanbase on PS4 due to Bloodborne.
So Dark Souls has a majority of its fanbase thanks to Bloodborne, but Yakuza doesn't despite having Ishin, 0 and Kiwami coming early next year? (none exclusive but you get the point)

Anyway I don't think you can put Yakuza 6 and Persona 5 in the same ballpark as FFXV and DQXI, Persona 5 is in fact very close to Star Ocean 5 if anything (like it's a series that actually sold over 500k copies for most of its entries).
 
Oct 15, 2015
51
0
0
Great to see all those fresh squids joining the party every week!

I have a question about Wii U and PS4. Both have been out awhile and the Wii U continues to have a larger install base in Japan. It looks like it wont be until maybe late next year for the PS4 to catch up.

That being said, why isn't the Wii U getting more Japanese releases?

I know the PS4 is much bigger worldwide, but what about all those genres that only sell in Japan? Im talking about your train controller sims, your dating sims, your idol karaoke etc. You know, the Vita lineup.

Why were those games not made for the Wii U even though it has a decent install base in Japan?
 

Aostia

El Capitan Todd
Sep 2, 2011
18,552
3
0
Pokemon Z should jump directly on NX (if portable) with a brand new engine

I know, it would be stupid, because "Z" should be made exactly to exploit existing assets, and a new console, even if successfull, isn't exactly the hottest item among kids (first target for Pokemon), but there are times where you should act bolder
 
Sep 1, 2013
7,582
0
0
The 3DS is also not a pound for pound match up here to the 3GS. They're different systems with different constraints.
3DS no but n3DS isn't far off actually. Comparable CPU and GPU performance (older designs but higher clocked and more customized), the same amount of RAM, but no bulky iOS overhead clogging system resources either.

I think n3DS could pull off a fairly decent version of PE without much work. Although technical arguments against 3DS pulling off Minecraft are misplaced anyway since Mojang has already clairified there weren't any technical barriers preventing it.
 
Oct 10, 2007
4,117
0
0
www.wiitalia.it
Pokemon Z should jump directly on NX (if portable) with a brand new engine

I know, it would be stupid, because "Z" should be made exactly to exploit existing assets, and a new console, even if successfull, isn't exactly the hottest item among kids (first target for Pokemon), but there are times where you should act bolder
Act bolder in releasing a brand new game that is supposed to sell >2.5m on a platform with 0 installed base?

Pokémon Z might be cross-gen, though. Nevertheless, I do think GF is really changing its future plans for the franchise and will not be as predictable as it was until BW.
 
May 14, 2006
17,455
0
0
I have a question about Wii U and PS4. Both have been out awhile and the Wii U continues to have a larger install base in Japan. It looks like it wont be until maybe late next year for the PS4 to catch up.

That being said, why isn't the Wii U getting more Japanese releases?

I know the PS4 is much bigger worldwide, but what about all those genres that only sell in Japan? Im talking about your train controller sims, your dating sims, your idol karaoke etc. You know, the Vita lineup.

Why were those games not made for the Wii U even though it has a decent install base in Japan?
I think those companies expected the Vita to perform better sales-wise.

Any shift in support is probably being saved for the NX at this point, and it's probably fairly easily to port games between the NX and PS4.
 

lherre

Accurate
Feb 6, 2007
1,741
0
0
www.beta-zero.com
sörine;189503417 said:
3DS no but n3DS isn't far off actually. Comparable CPU and GPU performance (older designs but higher clocked and more customized), the same amount of RAM, but no bulky iOS overhead clogging system resources either.

I think n3DS could pull off a fairly decent version of PE without much work. Although technical arguments against 3DS pulling off Minecraft are misplaced anyway since Mojang has already clairified there weren't any technical barriers preventing it.
I think they were "polite" to the question.
 

Aostia

El Capitan Todd
Sep 2, 2011
18,552
3
0
Act bolder in releasing a brand new game that is supposed to sell >2.5m on a platform with 0 installed base?

Pokémon Z might be cross-gen, though. Nevertheless, I do think GF is really changing its future plans for the franchise and will not be as predictable as it was until BW.
there were games able to sell even more, being launch titles.
look at Wii sport for example.
i'd say that more than the install base (people could REALLY go out and continue buying NX console for Pokemon and Pokemon for the console) but the target age
 
Mar 1, 2011
15,690
0
0
Pokemon Z should jump directly on NX (if portable) with a brand new engine

I know, it would be stupid, because "Z" should be made exactly to exploit existing assets, and a new console, even if successfull, isn't exactly the hottest item among kids (first target for Pokemon), but there are times where you should act bolder
If this is their plan, they should junk Z entirely and kick off a new generation as quickly as possible. Z is meant to be squeezing as much profit out of the assets as possible, and if it isn't doing that it should be scrapped.
 
May 5, 2014
9,913
0
0
Is there any possibility Nintendo drops the WiiU price next year? Cpnsiderimg their love of pice incrwases it seems unlikely but if they launch a system next year I dunno how they will justify the high WiiU price. I guess we still have to see what NX entirely conveys before we can make any valid assumptions
 
Oct 10, 2007
4,117
0
0
www.wiitalia.it
there were games able to sell even more, being launch titles.
look at Wii sport for example.
i'd say that more than the install base (people could REALLY go out and continue buying NX console for Pokemon and Pokemon for the console) but the target age
I don't see how the comparison is apt: Wii Sports was a sleeper hit that was able to sell over time because it became THE Wii game; it sold until it was replaced by Wii Sports Resort; it didn't rely on a specific audience being a universal and completely unique experience; furthermore, it reached the 2.5m after one year in the market. Finally, Nintendo didn't expect Wii Sports to sell millions.

That's why you never see multi-million seller IPs launching along a new platform with a mainline entry.
 

Aostia

El Capitan Todd
Sep 2, 2011
18,552
3
0
I don't see how the comparison is apt: Wii Sports was a sleeper hit that was able to sell over time because it became THE Wii game; it sold until it was replaced by Wii Sports Resort; it didn't rely on a specific audience being a universal and completely unique experience; furthermore, it reached the 2.5m after one year in the market. Finally, Nintendo didn't expect Wii Sports to sell millions.

That's why you never see multi-million seller IPs launching along a new platform with a mainline entry.
Z would not be a main entry, plus if I was Pokemon, I'd try to BE the NX game, before someone else steals the thunder
 
Oct 10, 2007
4,117
0
0
www.wiitalia.it
Z would not be a main entry, plus if I was Pokemon, I'd try to BE the NX game, before someone else steals the thunder
Pokémon Z would need to sell 2.5m or something like that so it can be considered a mainline entry after all.

Gotta wonder how much money capcom is leaving on the table with Monster Hunter

Series could be so much bigger than it already is
Yeah, Capcom should totally develop an AAA MH game for home consoles so they can finally have worldwide appeal and increase sales in Japan.
 
Mar 9, 2012
3,567
0
445
Spain
Sorry for the delay

Mario Kart 8 VS Splatoon (1 million at retail in two weeks)
Code:
------------------------------------------------------------- 
|    |   Mario Kart 8    |      Splatoon     |  Difference  | 
|    | [WIU] (2014/05/29)| [WIU] (2015/05/28)|              | 
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------| 
|Week|  Weekly |   LTD   |  Weekly |   LTD   | SPLTN - MK8  | 
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------| 
|  1 |  325.892|  325.892|  144.818|  144.818|      -181.074|
|  2 |   73.051|  398.943|   68.913|  213.731|      -185.212|
|  3 |   42.261|  441.205|   53.198|  266.929|      -174.276| 
|  4 |   28.112|  469.316|   43.653|  310.582|      -158.734| 
|  5 |   23.520|  492.837|   37.458|  348.040|      -144.797|  
|  6 |   19.386|  512.223|   34.135|  382.175|      -130.048|  
|  7 |   15.143|  527.366|   26.136|  408.312|      -119.054|  
|  8 |   14.992|  542.358|   22.557|  430.869|      -111.489|  
|  9 |   18.129|  560.487|   24.289|  455.158|      -105.329| 
| 10 |   18.067|  578.554|   28.256|  483.413|       -95.141| 
| 11 |   20.860|  599.414|   35.620|  519.034|       -80.380| 
| 12 |   28.221|  627.635|   41.361|  560.394|       -67.241| 
| 13 |   12.075|  639.710|   23.874|  584.268|       -55.442| 
| 14 |   11.148|  650.858|   23.403|  607.670|       -43.188|
| 15 |    8.221|  659.079|   18.826|  626.497|       -32.582|
| 16 |    6.839|  665.918|   17.490|  643.987|       -21.931|
| 17 |    6.396|  672.313|   16.772|  660.759|       -11.554|
| 18 |    5.936|  678.250|   20.736|  681.495|         3.245|
| 19 |    4.517|  682.767|   14.958|  696.454|        13.687|
| 20 |    3.996|  686.763|   13.186|  709.639|        22.876|
| 21 |    3.625|  690.387|   14.680|  724.319|        33.932|
| 22 |    2.821|  693.208|   13.159|  737.478|        44.270|
| 23 |    3.170|  696.378|   11.969|  749.477|        53.099|
| 24 |    3.210|  699.588|   13.891|  763.338|        63.750|
| 25 |   13.544|  713.132|   21.098|  784.436|        71.304|
| 26 |    8.752|  721.884|   17.681|  802.117|        80.233|
| 27 |   12.742|  734.626|   23.823|  825.940|        91.314|
| 28 |   19.244|  753.870|   35.256|  861.197|       107.327|
| 29 |   24.938|  778.808|   51.138|  912.335|       133.527|
| 30 |   34.331|  813.139|         |         |              |
| 31 |   38.637|  851.776|         |         |              |
| 32 |   28.403|  880.180|         |         |              |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|
|Total        -|1.126.412|        -|  912.335|      -214.077|      
-------------------------------------------------------------
Monster Hunter 4U VS Monster Hunter X
Code:
------------------------------------------------------------- 
|    | Monster Hunter 4U | Monster Hunter X  |  Difference  |
|    | [3DS] (2014/10/11)| [3DS] (2015/11/28)|              | 
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------| 
|Week|  Weekly |   LTD   |  Weekly |   LTD   |  MH4U - MHX  | 
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------| 
|  1 |1.446.289|1.446.289|1.488.367|1.488.367|        42.078| 
|  2 |  327.212|1.773.501|  332.478|1.820.845|        47.344| 
|  3 |  172.348|1.945.850|  192.203|2.013.048|        67.198|  
|  4 |  101.349|2.047.199|         |         |              | 
|  5 |   57.645|2.104.844|         |         |              |
|  6 |   39.502|2.144.346|         |         |              |
|  7 |   28.728|2.173.073|         |         |              |
|  8 |   27.624|2.200.698|         |         |              |
|  9 |   25.157|2.225.855|         |         |              |
| 10 |   29.418|2.255.273|         |         |              |
| 11 |   38.681|2.293.954|         |         |              |
| 12 |   51.306|2.345.260|         |         |              |
| 13 |   45.754|2.391.014|         |         |              |
| 14 |   21.453|2.412.467|         |         |              |
| 15 |   15.588|2.428.056|         |         |              |
| 16 |   12.318|2.440.373|         |         |              |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|
|Total        -|2.529.565|        -|2.013.048|      -516.517|      
-------------------------------------------------------------
 
PC/Mobile F2P with cosmetic micro transactions :p there is probably something like this already out in Japan?
Yes, they make both of those already.

Monster Hunter Explore: https://www.appannie.com/apps/ios/app/monsutahanta-ekusupuroa/

Monster Hunter Frontier is the PC game, though they also have Monster Hunter Online for China in partnership with Tencent.

Rumor is they're also working on Monster Hunter Frontier 2 for PC/PS4, but we don't know that for certain.

They also have a social browser game to boot that I think is still in beta.

I don't think there's really a scenario where Capcom feels there's significant money to be made and they're not pursuing it in regards to Monster Hunter.
 
Mar 17, 2010
1,942
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0
Wii U year to date: 651.468
PS4 year to date: 1.165.211

PS4 sold 513k more than Wii U so far this year. And this is with the Splatoon effect, Super Mario Maker (way bigger than any 2016 Wii U release), a weaker PS4 lineup compared to the next year one, and 9 months of full priced PS4.

I think it's a safe bet to say that next year, considering all the elements I stated before, the PS4 will be able to sell even more compared to the Wii U.

Now, the yearly gap could be smaller if the Wii U will sell more than PS4 again in the next two weeks (three is impossible, considering how usually the new-year week is more favourable to Sony consoles than Nintendo's). let's say that the gap will be even higher than this week. This week the Wii U sold 9k more than PS4. Let's pretend that the gap will be double for two week and so let's say that the Wii U will sell 36k more than PS4 from now until the end of the year.

The yearly gap would be decrase, let's say around 480k. Isn't it safe to tell the PS4 next year will be able to sell more than 480k more than the Wii U?

and, being the global gap around 660k, even with it becoming around 700k, don't you think that it will be easily achievable for the PS4 to fill that gap?
I didnt want to enter in this discussion, but i think its interesting that you said about the ps4 baseline and i agree, but i also want to share some data:
PS4 sales after splatoon (MC numbers): 647264
Wiiu after splatoon (MC): 457171

That put ps4 with a rate of 22319 consoles per week, where wiiu have 15764 per week.

Of course splatoon might die and the wiiu craters, but after a whole year, it still didnt happen. No one knows when it will happen either. Its not like the system needs to sell better than the 4, its just need to keep selling as well as it have this whole time, which is reasonable, to not get passes by it.

Ps4 will surely pass the wiiu though. Its not unreasonable to expect that to happen only in 2017 according to trends.
 
May 5, 2014
9,913
0
0
Gotta wonder how much money capcom is leaving on the table with Monster Hunter

Series could be so much bigger than it already is
Maybe if they port it to current gen they can get some extra sales I agree. But if you mean develop a console title opposed to a handheld, you're outta your mind. MH will regress on consoles compared to handheld significantly. There is virtually no mainline growth they can achieve overall on consoles. Porting 4G or X to PS4/WiiU/NX would probably make them some easy bank though.
 

Aostia

El Capitan Todd
Sep 2, 2011
18,552
3
0
Pokémon Z would need to sell 2.5m or something like that so it can be considered a mainline entry after all.
if a true mainline Pokemon game would end up selling just 2.5 millions, that would really put the brand at risk. I mean, would be half of what a mainline can do, on a healthy console. Third versions imho are not "brand new mainline episodes" (and market sales agree with me).
I know that they will not do that, and I know that usually they don't act like that.
but I think that continue acting conservative as they are, imho, with so low efforts on the Pokemon franchise will not guarantee them to not be affected by competitors and by the console generation switch
Imagine how much buzz a Pokemon Z as NX launch title (if portable) would generate, and how curious people would be in seeing it on the brand new console (possibly with a generational leap also in terms of assets)
 
Oct 14, 2014
3,812
0
0
Mario Kart 8 VS Splatoon (1 million at retail in two weeks)
Code:
------------------------------------------------------------- 
|    |   Mario Kart 8    |      Splatoon     |  Difference  | 
|    | [WIU] (2014/05/29)| [WIU] (2015/05/28)|              | 
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------| 
|Week|  Weekly |   LTD   |  Weekly |   LTD   | SPLTN - MK8  | 
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------| 
|  1 |  325.892|  325.892|  144.818|  144.818|      -181.074|
|  2 |   73.051|  398.943|   68.913|  213.731|      -185.212|
|  3 |   42.261|  441.205|   53.198|  266.929|      -174.276| 
|  4 |   28.112|  469.316|   43.653|  310.582|      -158.734| 
|  5 |   23.520|  492.837|   37.458|  348.040|      -144.797|  
|  6 |   19.386|  512.223|   34.135|  382.175|      -130.048|  
|  7 |   15.143|  527.366|   26.136|  408.312|      -119.054|  
|  8 |   14.992|  542.358|   22.557|  430.869|      -111.489|  
|  9 |   18.129|  560.487|   24.289|  455.158|      -105.329| 
| 10 |   18.067|  578.554|   28.256|  483.413|       -95.141| 
| 11 |   20.860|  599.414|   35.620|  519.034|       -80.380| 
| 12 |   28.221|  627.635|   41.361|  560.394|       -67.241| 
| 13 |   12.075|  639.710|   23.874|  584.268|       -55.442| 
| 14 |   11.148|  650.858|   23.403|  607.670|       -43.188|
| 15 |    8.221|  659.079|   18.826|  626.497|       -32.582|
| 16 |    6.839|  665.918|   17.490|  643.987|       -21.931|
| 17 |    6.396|  672.313|   16.772|  660.759|       -11.554|
| 18 |    5.936|  678.250|   20.736|  681.495|         3.245|
| 19 |    4.517|  682.767|   14.958|  696.454|        13.687|
| 20 |    3.996|  686.763|   13.186|  709.639|        22.876|
| 21 |    3.625|  690.387|   14.680|  724.319|        33.932|
| 22 |    2.821|  693.208|   13.159|  737.478|        44.270|
| 23 |    3.170|  696.378|   11.969|  749.477|        53.099|
| 24 |    3.210|  699.588|   13.891|  763.338|        63.750|
| 25 |   13.544|  713.132|   21.098|  784.436|        71.304|
| 26 |    8.752|  721.884|   17.681|  802.117|        80.233|
| 27 |   12.742|  734.626|   23.823|  825.940|        91.314|
| 28 |   19.244|  753.870|   35.256|  861.197|       107.327|
| 29 |   24.938|  778.808|   51.138|  912.335|       133.527|
| 30 |   34.331|  813.139|         |         |              |
| 31 |   38.637|  851.776|         |         |              |
| 32 |   28.403|  880.180|         |         |              |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|
|Total        -|1.126.412|        -|  912.335|      -214.077|      
-------------------------------------------------------------
Splatoon will surpass MK8 lifetime in Japan within 12-20 weeks?
 
Oct 12, 2014
7,806
0
0
Bahrain
So Dark Souls has a majority of its fanbase thanks to Bloodborne, but Yakuza doesn't despite having Ishin, 0 and Kiwami coming early next year? (none exclusive but you get the point)

Anyway I don't think you can put Yakuza 6 and Persona 5 in the same ballpark as FFXV and DQXI, Persona 5 is in fact very close to Star Ocean 5 if anything (like it's a series that actually sold over 500k copies for most of its entries).
Bloodborne was PS4 exclusive, thus the Souls fanbase moved to PS4. Yakuza was crossgen & Yakuza 6 isn't.

& I didn't put Persona & Yakuza on the same level as FF & DQ, I just said those are the games that will move hardware, while FF & DQ will probably move 100k+ in their debut week with a good increase in the weekly baseline, Persona & Yakuza can still give the PS4 a ~50k week, something I don't think the other games in that list can do.
 
Sep 2, 2014
16,385
0
0
Another holiday week of the PS4 hardware not behaving like everything else around it, significantly lower bump w-o-w than everything else.

I may be forgetting some game for both but generally I think PS4 will have much higher baseline than WiiU over the course of the year based on the line up alone. NX could be a factor too but it will hurt sales of Wii U more than PS4.
Look at the genres being targeted, and then cut away all the titles that won't actually have significant impact (DQB, for instance, will live on the Vita where the audience is not on its overpriced PS4 release, or audience that already transitioned/have had reason to transition for months) and you have:
Yakuza 6
Street Fighter V
Persona 5
Final Fantasy XV
Dragon Quest XI
And three of them are jRPGs, and the list of jRPGs only gets even more audience redundant when you add in SO5, Ys, KH2.8, etc. (Other titles, like Dark Souls 3, already have their audience on PS4, they're not going to go out and buy another PS4.) These aren't vastly different titles either, they'll have a lot of overlap. DQXI also has the very real "problem" of the 3DS version galvanizing its sales potential.
 
Apr 30, 2015
1,133
0
0
I can't believe that Wii U has a reasonable chance of breaking 800k this year. No one could have predicted this before the year started. And sometime in January it should break 3 million ltd even if it returns to mediocre sales after the holiday season.
 

Principate

Saint Titanfall
Dec 17, 2011
16,592
0
570
Let's be honest here the PS4 sales won't even be a drop in a pocket, and it's big question whether it'll actually do all that well in the Vita in comparison to sales it got in the west due to Nintendo marketing etc (since Vita is dead and buried in the west). 500k to 600k will probably be the limit and i doubt it will probably ofset the loss of sales and support on the 3DS
 
Dec 20, 2013
544
0
0
I'm wondering about the effect of NX on Wii U sales, myself. Anticipation for a replacement system should definitely drive Wii U sales down, but at the same time, I don't think aggressive price cuts to clear stock are impossible, so it could still sell Wii-U-decent numbers well into next year.
.
Nintendo has up until now been doggedly determined to not lower the Wii U's price, especially now that they're selling it at profit.

More than likely, Japan will see a two-game bundle (like the Smash/Splat and Mario Kart/Splat bundles other regions got) as we get closer to NX time. That way, they could "lower" the price without technically lowering it.
 
Nov 16, 2007
16,626
0
0
31
Did you look at YTD numbers? PS4 is almost doubling WiiU numbers. With a lot more major tiles coming to PS4 next year, PS4 could pass WiiU as early as the end of summer 2016.
Before and after Splatoon are two entirely different worlds, though. Wii U's baseline has genuinely gone up since then. It may wind up being close if Final Fantasy XV launches in late summer, but unless the PS4 is getting another price cut next year, I don't see it surpassing the Wii U by the end of the year (unless the NX launches in like August or so).