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Media Create Sales: Week 7, 2015 (Feb 09 - Feb 15)

Mr Swine

Banned
Nov 30, 2011
9,772
0
0
Sweden
My prediction:

PREDICTION LEAGUE MARCH 2015

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Feb 23 to Mar 29):
[3DS] Hardware (35 days) - 107,640
[PS4] Hardware (35 days) - 123,600
[ALL] Dragon Quest Heroes (32 days) - 1,050,300
[ALL] Yakuza 0 (18 days) - 460,750
[WIU] Mario Party 10 (18 days) - 110,500
[ALL] Final Fantasy Type-0 HD (11 days) - 560,780
[ALL] Resident Evil Revelations 2 (11 days) - 234,765
[ALL] Sword Art Online Lost Song (4 days) - 94,250
[PS4] Bloodborne (4 days) - 232,800
[ALL] One Piece Pirate Warriors 3 (4 days) - 246,700
[ALL] Senran Kagura Estival Versus (4 days) - 95,700
[3DS] Theatrhythm Dragon Quest (4 days) - 45,690
[PS4] Disgaea 5 (4 days) - 121,090
 

Moor-Angol

Banned
Aug 26, 2005
4,504
2
0
44
Japan
retrogamesheaven.com
SK2 was 980 yen on amiami recently, so they could get rid of their stock. Another recent 3DS bomba was Kinki no Magna at 1200 yen.
I didn't know about that, rpg is not my genre :)

yesterday I also saw Cubic Ninja for the first time since the exploit revelation.
I was thinking about buying or not, then I saw the price and I made my decision

3,940yen
:D
 

Eolz

Member
Jun 1, 2014
10,193
20
475
PREDICTION LEAGUE MARCH 2015

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Feb 23 to Mar 29):
[3DS] Hardware (35 days) - 231k
[PS4] Hardware (35 days) - 176k
[ALL] Dragon Quest Heroes (32 days) - 786k
[ALL] Yakuza 0 (18 days) - 298k
[WIU] Mario Party 10 (18 days) - 99k
[ALL] Final Fantasy Type-0 HD (11 days) - 167k
[ALL] Resident Evil Revelations 2 (11 days) - 142k
[ALL] Sword Art Online Lost Song (4 days) - 139k
[PS4] Bloodborne (4 days) - 101k
[ALL] One Piece Pirate Warriors 3 (4 days) - 303k
[ALL] Senran Kagura Estival Versus (4 days) - 87k
[3DS] Theatrhythm Dragon Quest (4 days) - 82k
[PS4] Disgaea 5 (4 days) - 64k


Lots of predictions this time! Will probably badly miss some...
 

hiska-kun

Member
Mar 9, 2012
3,567
0
445
Spain
Tsutaya's Ranking Week 8 2015

01./00. [PSV] God Eater 2: Rage Burst <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games)
02./01. [3DS] The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask 3D (Nintendo)
03./00. [PS4] God Eater 2: Rage Burst <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games)
04./00. [PS4] The Order: 1886 <ADV> (Sony Computer Entertainment)

05./05. [PS3] Dragon Ball: Xenoverse <FTG> (Bandai Namco Games)
06./02. [PS3] Samurai Warriors 4-II <ACT> (Koei Tecmo)
07./08. [3DS] Yo-kai Watch 2: Shin Uchi <RPG> (Level 5)
08./00. [PS4] Dead or Alive 5: Last Round <FTG> (Koei Tecmo)
09./04. [PSV] Samurai Warriors 4-II <ACT> (Koei Tecmo)
10./07. [PS4] Dragon Ball: Xenoverse <FTG> (Bandai Namco Games)
11./00. [PS3] Dead or Alive 5: Last Round <FTG> (Koei Tecmo)
12./06. [PS4] Samurai Warriors 4-II <ACT> (Koei Tecmo)
13./11. [3DS] Super Smash Bros. for Nintendo 3DS <FTG> (Nintendo)
14./14. [3DS] Monster Hunter 4 Ultimate <ACT> (Capcom)
15./10. [PS3] Far Cry 4 <ACT> (Ubisoft)
16./19. [3DS] Pokemon Alpha Sapphire <RPG> (Pokemon Co.)
17./13. [PS3] Dark Souls II: Scholar of the First Sin <RPG> (From Software)
18./18. [WIU] Super Smash Bros. for Wii U <FTG> (Nintendo)
19./22. [3DS] Pokemon Omega Ruby <RPG> (Pokemon Co.)
20./09. [PS4] Far Cry 4 <ACT> (Ubisoft)
 

random25

Member
May 23, 2014
12,784
0
0
PREDICTION LEAGUE MARCH 2015

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Feb 23 to Mar 29):

[3DS] Hardware (35 days) - 220k
[PS4] Hardware (35 days) - 150k
[ALL] Dragon Quest Heroes (32 days) - 800k
[ALL] Yakuza 0 (18 days) - 250k
[WIU] Mario Party 10 (18 days) - 150k
[ALL] Final Fantasy Type-0 HD (11 days) - 200k
[ALL] Resident Evil Revelations 2 (11 days) - 150k
[ALL] Sword Art Online Lost Song (4 days) - 80k
[PS4] Bloodborne (4 days) - 100k
[ALL] One Piece Pirate Warriors 3 (4 days) - 200k
[ALL] Senran Kagura Estival Versus (4 days) - 60k
[3DS] Theatrhythm Dragon Quest (4 days) - 80k
[PS4] Disgaea 5 (4 days) - 30k
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Dec 17, 2008
11,738
0
0
predictions

[3DS] Hardware (35 days) - 210.987
[PS4] Hardware (35 days) - 123.456
[ALL] Dragon Quest Heroes (32 days) - 789.012
[ALL] Yakuza 0 (18 days) - 234.567
[WIU] Mario Party 10 (18 days) - 123.456
[ALL] Final Fantasy Type-0 HD (11 days) - 210.987
[ALL] Resident Evil Revelations 2 (11 days) - 123.456
[ALL] Sword Art Online Lost Song (4 days) - 123.456
[PS4] Bloodborne (4 days) - 123.456
[ALL] One Piece Pirate Warriors 3 (4 days) - 234.567
[ALL] Senran Kagura Estival Versus (4 days) - 56.789
[3DS] Theatrhythm Dragon Quest (4 days) - 89.012
[PS4] Disgaea 5 (4 days) - 45.678
 

Orgen

Member
Aug 4, 2005
2,174
0
1,125
Predictions

[3DS] Hardware (35 days) - 198.000
[PS4] Hardware (35 days) - 119.000
[ALL] Dragon Quest Heroes (32 days) - 811.000
[ALL] Yakuza 0 (18 days) - 254.000
[WIU] Mario Party 10 (18 days) - 140.000
[ALL] Final Fantasy Type-0 HD (11 days) - 222.000
[ALL] Resident Evil Revelations 2 (11 days) - 138.000
[ALL] Sword Art Online Lost Song (4 days) - 106.000
[PS4] Bloodborne (4 days) - 117.000
[ALL] One Piece Pirate Warriors 3 (4 days) - 262.000
[ALL] Senran Kagura Estival Versus (4 days) - 59.000
[3DS] Theatrhythm Dragon Quest (4 days) - 83.000
[PS4] Disgaea 5 (4 days) - 45.000
 

djtiesto

is beloved, despite what anyone might say
Jul 26, 2004
28,052
6
0
Long Island, NY
PREDICTION LEAGUE MARCH 2015

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Feb 23 to Mar 29):
[3DS] Hardware (35 days) - 180,000
[PS4] Hardware (35 days) - 130,000
[ALL] Dragon Quest Heroes (32 days) - 350,000
[ALL] Yakuza 0 (18 days) - 198,000
[WIU] Mario Party 10 (18 days) - 112,000
[ALL] Final Fantasy Type-0 HD (11 days) - 130,000
[ALL] Resident Evil Revelations 2 (11 days) - 75,000
[ALL] Sword Art Online Lost Song (4 days) - 64,000
[PS4] Bloodborne (4 days) - 79,000
[ALL] One Piece Pirate Warriors 3 (4 days) - 140,000
[ALL] Senran Kagura Estival Versus (4 days) - 34,000
[3DS] Theatrhythm Dragon Quest (4 days) - 288,000
[PS4] Disgaea 5 (4 days) - 57,000

Just taking a shot in the dark at this, I don't really know much about sales but figured 'what the hell'.
 

Fisico

Member
Jul 9, 2012
2,539
0
425
Japan
twitter.com
PREDICTION LEAGUE MARCH 2015
[ALL] Dragon Quest Heroes (32 days) - 350,000

[3DS] Theatrhythm Dragon Quest (4 days) - 288,000

Just taking a shot in the dark at this, I don't really know much about sales but figured 'what the hell'.
So you think TTDQ will have a better FW than Dragon Quest Heroes?
A shot in the dark it is, but you could bother to read the others predictions or the YSO's one for DQH to have a better idea :p
 

sörine

Banned
Sep 1, 2013
7,582
0
0
PREDICTION LEAGUE MARCH 2015

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Feb 23 to Mar 29):
[3DS] Hardware (35 days) - 187,421
[PS4] Hardware (35 days) - 112,766
[ALL] Dragon Quest Heroes (32 days) - 798,342
[ALL] Yakuza 0 (18 days) - 268,429
[WIU] Mario Party 10 (18 days) - 127,437
[ALL] Final Fantasy Type-0 HD (11 days) - 178,669
[ALL] Resident Evil Revelations 2 (11 days) - 77,302
[ALL] Sword Art Online Lost Song (4 days) - 86,945
[PS4] Bloodborne (4 days) - 75,497
[ALL] One Piece Pirate Warriors 3 (4 days) - 184,361
[ALL] Senran Kagura Estival Versus (4 days) - 53,934
[3DS] Theatrhythm Dragon Quest (4 days) - 87,408
[PS4] Disgaea 5 (4 days) - 31,934
 

ZSaberLink

Media Create Maven
Jul 29, 2010
4,330
129
915
Here are my random predictions xD

PREDICTION LEAGUE MARCH 2015

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Feb 23 to Mar 29):
[3DS] Hardware (35 days) - 172,843
[PS4] Hardware (35 days) - 123,456
[ALL] Dragon Quest Heroes (32 days) - 764,399
[ALL] Yakuza 0 (18 days) - 347,996
[WIU] Mario Party 10 (18 days) - 135,194
[ALL] Final Fantasy Type-0 HD (11 days) - 157,049
[ALL] Resident Evil Revelations 2 (11 days) - 68,567
[ALL] Sword Art Online Lost Song (4 days) - 100,345
[PS4] Bloodborne (4 days) - 110,975
[ALL] One Piece Pirate Warriors 3 (4 days) - 203,054
[ALL] Senran Kagura Estival Versus (4 days) - 69,324
[3DS] Theatrhythm Dragon Quest (4 days) - 110,456
[PS4] Disgaea 5 (4 days) - 43,948
 

casiopao

Member
Jan 27, 2013
7,639
0
440
Guys, seeing many prediction there. Don't Disgaea selling 40k=disaster? Anyone remember how much Disgaea is targeted to sell? As 40k seems really low.
 

sörine

Banned
Sep 1, 2013
7,582
0
0
Guys, seeing many prediction there. Don't Disgaea selling 40k=disaster? Anyone remember how much Disgaea is targeted to sell? As 40k seems really low.
I believe they're targeting 150k. I think it's going to bomb though.
 

casiopao

Member
Jan 27, 2013
7,639
0
440
sörine;153432851 said:
I believe they're targeting 150k. I think it's going to bomb though.
Oww. That's quite high. And seeing how many game in that time, I had terrible time seeing Disgaea sells 150k here. If only they release the game 1 month earlier.
 

ZSaberLink

Media Create Maven
Jul 29, 2010
4,330
129
915
Guys, seeing many prediction there. Don't Disgaea selling 40k=disaster? Anyone remember how much Disgaea is targeted to sell? As 40k seems really low.
We're just talking about its opening 4 days with the predictions though.



40K opening is lower than the previous entries, but still about the 1st one's opening. Those were all released on much higher install bases too. I guess we'll see how dedicated their fanbase is.

PS2 Disgaea: Hour of Darkness 46,883 152,675 Nippon Ichi Software 2003-01-30
PS2 Disgaea 2: Cursed Memories 97,456 150,428 Nippon Ichi Software 2006-02-23
PS3 Disgaea 3: Absence of Justice 56,441 110,772 Nippon Ichi Software 2008-01-31
PS3 Disgaea 4: A Promise Unforgotten 77,449 170,717 Nippon Ichi Software 2011-02-24
PS3 Disgaea D2: A Brighter Darkness 53,814 75,734 Nippon Ichi Software 2013-03-20

40K opening would still be better than this I guess:
NDS Disgaea DS 14,666 38,770 Nippon Ichi Software 2008-06-26 (why exactly did this port do so badly?)
 

casiopao

Member
Jan 27, 2013
7,639
0
440
We're just talking about its opening 4 days with the predictions though.



40K opening is lower than the previous entries, but still about the 1st one's opening. Those were all released on much higher install bases too. I guess we'll see how dedicated their fanbase is.

PS2 Disgaea: Hour of Darkness 46,883 152,675 Nippon Ichi Software 2003-01-30
PS2 Disgaea 2: Cursed Memories 97,456 150,428 Nippon Ichi Software 2006-02-23
PS3 Disgaea 3: Absence of Justice 56,441 110,772 Nippon Ichi Software 2008-01-31
PS3 Disgaea 4: A Promise Unforgotten 77,449 170,717 Nippon Ichi Software 2011-02-24
PS3 Disgaea D2: A Brighter Darkness 53,814 75,734 Nippon Ichi Software 2013-03-20

40K opening would still be better than this I guess:
NDS Disgaea DS 14,666 38,770 Nippon Ichi Software 2008-06-26 (why exactly did this port do so badly?)
While I understand that we are just predicting its 4 days of sales, don't most Jrpg sales started great then it falls off the chart?

Reading ur sales record, it seems Disgaea had some legs there but I feel that PS4 fanbase is not yet good enough to bring the sales into 100k region as fast as Nippon Ichi wanted here.
 

Psycho_Mantis

Banned
Jul 28, 2012
26,651
0
0
While I understand that we are just predicting its 4 days of sales, don't most Jrpg sales started great then it falls off the chart?

Reading ur sales record, it seems Disgaea had some legs there but I feel that PS4 fanbase is not yet good enough to bring the sales into 100k region as fast as Nippon Ichi wanted here.
Well look at the FW/LTD ratio. Disgaea 3 and 4 have their FW's around 50% or less in relation to their LTD.

Also some clarification on what was said:

We asked Mr. Niikawa to clarify and he said that the correct spirit and translation of the comment is, "If Disgaea 5 does not sell as planned, I, as the producer, might need to leave the Japanese gaming industry. (LOL)"
 

allan-bh

Member
May 16, 2006
6,562
1
1,150
For people who are in Japan, Xbox One is widely available at retail or some stores are not selling anymore?
 

hiska-kun

Member
Mar 9, 2012
3,567
0
445
Spain
Tsutaya's report

- God Eater 2: Rage Burst for Vita is the best seller game this week. It sold better than expected, almost the same units than the last entry.
Vita Hardware also sold great, PSP users that upgraded.
- The PS4 version also moved more units than was expected.
- Dead or Alive 5: Last Round (PS4-PS3) also sold more than expected and was close to sell out.

For next week:

- Dragon Quest Heroes is expected to sell well, pre-orders are favorable.
At first the PS4 version was leading, but now that the release date is getting closer, the PS3 is growing faster.
- PS4 hardware is expected to increase by a good amount. Tsutaya's stores have a special campaign.
 

Sangetsu-II

Member
Dec 5, 2014
4,803
0
340
US
Tsutaya's report

- God Eater 2: Rage Burst for Vita is the best seller game this week. It sold better than expected, almost the same units than the last entry.
Vita Hardware also sold great, PSP users that upgraded.
- The PS4 version also moved more units than was expected.
- Dead or Alive 5: Last Round (PS4-PS3) also sold more than expected and was close to sell out.

For next week:

- Dragon Quest Heroes is expected to sell well, pre-orders are favorable.
At first the PS4 version was leading, but now that the release date is getting closer, the PS3 is growing faster.
- PS4 hardware is expected to increase by a good amount. Tsutaya's stores have a special campaign.
Good, good. Let the uprising begin! Any word on how The Order sold?
 

Sangetsu-II

Member
Dec 5, 2014
4,803
0
340
US
The PS3 uprising?
lol for the order
Both consoles are Uprising.

The Order actually got good rating there and was heavily marketed in Japan. So naturally I am curious to know how well it sold. Also was #1 ranked in UK sales. It's not a bad game.
 

Pennywise83

Banned
Oct 10, 2007
4,117
0
0
www.wiitalia.it
We're just talking about its opening 4 days with the predictions though.



40K opening is lower than the previous entries, but still about the 1st one's opening. Those were all released on much higher install bases too. I guess we'll see how dedicated their fanbase is.

PS2 Disgaea: Hour of Darkness 46,883 152,675 Nippon Ichi Software 2003-01-30
PS2 Disgaea 2: Cursed Memories 97,456 150,428 Nippon Ichi Software 2006-02-23
PS3 Disgaea 3: Absence of Justice 56,441 110,772 Nippon Ichi Software 2008-01-31
PS3 Disgaea 4: A Promise Unforgotten 77,449 170,717 Nippon Ichi Software 2011-02-24
PS3 Disgaea D2: A Brighter Darkness 53,814 75,734 Nippon Ichi Software 2013-03-20

40K opening would still be better than this I guess:
NDS Disgaea DS 14,666 38,770 Nippon Ichi Software 2008-06-26 (why exactly did this port do so badly?)
A 40k would mean that N1 will sell a lot a less than expected (150k); a 40k would translate into a 100k units at most.

The DS entry sold bad because there was no N1 fanbase on that hardware, and it was a poor port. It was also released without ads or whatever, just dumped on DS pretending it would have sold by itself.
 

Eolz

Member
Jun 1, 2014
10,193
20
475
Both consoles are Uprising.

The Order actually got good rating there and was heavily marketed in Japan. So naturally I am curious to know how well it sold. Also was #1 ranked in UK sales. It's not a bad game.
Was kidding, just because uprising was a bit too much of a term :p

For the Order, it's not about the quality of the game, I just really doubt it will appeal to japanese (or what's buying the PS4) audiences. It's no GTA, and I doubt it'll even do as good as Far Cry.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Mar 10, 2011
22,885
0
865
28
theflyingthoughtsblog.wordpress.com
Time again for mobile games analysis. This week is Final Fantasy Legends' turn. Both iOS and Android, because there are...interesting things to look at. Let's start with Android.

Google Play Free Downloads Rank

Aside from the first two days (one of them saw the game out of top 100), the game saw a continuous rise first in top 30, then in top 20, and since February 19th it sits in top 10 (except for one day where it ranked 12th). As for amount of downloads, this is how things went so far, i.e. the days the game hit specific goals

February 12th, 2015 - 10,000 - 50,000
February 13th, 2015 - 50,000 - 100,000
...
February 17th, 2015 - 100,000 - 500,000

This means that, on February 13th, the combination of the first two days brought the game up to over 50,000 downloads, while this trend the following days made it go over 100,000 downloads
47-->24-->17-->14.
In this period, the game saw an upper limit of 50,000 downloads. Considering the major ranking upward trend, and how it obtained to go over 50,000 in total despite being in very low positions, I don't think it's unreasonable to think that, maybe, while there's certainly a sensible difference between being in top 30, top 20, top 15...this difference isn't as pronounced as we think? Back when I did the Bravely Archive's analysis, I saw something similar, so that could be a reason?

Google Play Grossing Ranks

After the first day out of top 100 and the second day low in top 100 (sounds similar...), the game saw a days-long rising trend, which ended on February 20th, when it peaked at 34th. In the past few days, it seems it's more around 40th. Given the Grossing estimates for DQV back when it was in slightly higher rankings, this should result in a bit more than 4,000,000 Yen/day, or 28,000,000Yen/week.

Now, let's look at iOS, iPhone more specifically

iPhone Download Ranks

A big start, but also a pretty quick fall, down to 60th. Then, a sudden recovery, back to 5th, and another quick slowdown, now even outside of top 70. That's a major difference compared to what's going on on Google Play.

iPhone Grossing Ranks

Started at 72nd, peaked at 32nd a few days after launch, then a not-dramatically paced, but still steady fall, outside of past few days, which saw more dramatic falls.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Mar 10, 2011
22,885
0
865
28
theflyingthoughtsblog.wordpress.com

Kresnik258

Member
Jan 25, 2014
9,210
0
0
A 40k would mean that N1 will sell a lot a less than expected (150k); a 40k would translate into a 100k units at most.
sörine;153507857 said:
There wasn't any indication if that. Given western sales of previous Disgaea games that'd also be an incredibly low target.
Seems like it's worth re-quoting this:

Also some clarification on what was said:

We asked Mr. Niikawa to clarify and he said that the correct spirit and translation of the comment is, "If Disgaea 5 does not sell as planned, I, as the producer, might need to leave the Japanese gaming industry. (LOL)"
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Mar 10, 2011
22,885
0
865
28
theflyingthoughtsblog.wordpress.com
Also, looking at the current trend, I suppose a big chunk of the total amount of downloads of Final Fantasy Legends on iOS happened at debut, when it was first, plus the two days it went back into top 10, considering how the rest is made of quick, steep declines (again: after those two days back in top 10, the game went deeply down again, now at 74th). I don't know how much Square is satisfied by its current performance, considering especially how it's quite low in the Grossing Rank as well (currently 68th). Specifically on iOS.